Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 12

DUNKEL INDEX

Butler at Evansville
The Bulldogs look to take advantage of an Evansville team that is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog of 1 to 6 1/2 points. Butler is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Butler (-3)

Game 741-742: Fordham at Syracuse (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 43.856; Syracuse 76.454
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 32 1/2
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 26
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-26)

Game 743-744: Idaho at Long Beach State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 56.104; Long Beach State 62.807
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+12 1/2)

Game 745-746: San Jose State at Cal Poly (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 56.095; Cal Poly 57.245
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 1
Vegas Line: Cal Poly by 7
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+7)

Game 747-748: Northern Iowa at Old Dominion (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 58.923; Old Dominion 68.801
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 10
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 4
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-4)

Game 749-750: Butler at Evansville (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 70.115; Evansville 58.554
Dunkel Line: Butler by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Butler by 3
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-3)

Game 751-752: South Alabama at Mississippi State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 46.032; Mississippi State 59.558
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 17
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (+17)

Game 753-754: UL-Lafayette vs. North Dakota State (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 55.777; North Dakota State 56.582
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 1
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 755-756: Northern Arizona at San Francisco (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 52.185; San Francisco 59.641
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 757-758: Bryant vs. UC-Davis (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bryant 43.538; UC-Davis 48.379
Dunkel Line: UC-Davis by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 759-760: Southern Utah at San Diego State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 47.740; San Diego State 72.427
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 761-762: Florida Atlantic vs. Portland (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 49.517; Portland 54.929
Dunkel Line: Portland by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Portland

Game 763-764: Georgia State at Washington (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 53.898; Washington 68.211
Dunkel Line: Washington by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (+16 1/2)

Game 765-766: Army vs. The Citadel (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Army 42.629; The Citadel 45.096
Dunkel Line: The Citadel by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 767-768: VMI vs. Air Force (10:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VMI 49.386; Air Force 55.833
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 769-770: Youngstown State at Samford (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 47.910; Samford 44.387
Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (-2)

Game 771-772: New Mexico State at Northern Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 57.731; Northern Colorado 58.892
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 1
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (+3)

Game 781-782: Presbyterian at Duke (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Presbyterian 45.240; Duke 76.402
Dunkel Line: Duke by 31
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NHL

Tampa Bay at St. Louis
The Lightning look to build on their 8-2 record in their last 10 Saturday games. Tampa Bay is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110)

Game 51-52: Buffalo at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 12.698; Boston 12.119
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+135); Over

Game 53-54: Ottawa at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.467; Toronto 11.832
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-165); Under

Game 55-56: New Jersey at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.871; Washington 10.764
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+170); Over

Game 57-58: Pittsburgh at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.074; Carolina 11.198
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 59-60: Dallas at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.920; Detroit 13.029
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-145); Over

Game 61-62: Winnipeg at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 10.505; Columbus 9.756
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-135); 6
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+115); Under

Game 63-64: Montreal at Nashville (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.543; Nashville 12.974
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-160); Under

Game 65-66: Tampa Bay at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.498; St. Louis 11.201
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110); Over

Game 67-68: Calgary at Colorado (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.593; Colorado 11.769
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-120); Under

Game 69-70: Minnesota at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.862; Los Angeles 11.357
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Over

Game 71-72: Phoenix at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.529; San Jose 13.212
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-170); Under

Marc Lawrence

East Carolina

These Pirates made enough mistakes to sink a galley (trailed Southern Miss 38-14 at the half) last week. Regardless, they're playing their best ball of the year, winning the stats in six of their last seven games and holding powerful USM to a season-low 299 yards last week. ECU still needs wins in two of its three final games to reach a second bowl game under head coach Ruffin McNeill. Meanwhile, UTEP faded in the late going at Rice, losing the money in its second straight game after starting the season with a 6-0 ATS run. And should the Miners dig up a win today, they'll still need one against either Tulsa or UCF to reach the post-season promised land. Currently 0-2 SU and ATS in the series, UTEP's defense allowed Rice (not Oklahoma State) to roll up a season-high 671 yards of offense in their last outingÉ not a good sign. If we grade the opposing offenses as basically even, recent defensive performances mean we'll back the low guys over the high guys. We recommend a 1-unit play on East Carolina.

Illinois

After a heart-breaking 10-7 loss at Happy Valley two weeks ago, Ron Zooks crew returns home well-rested as dogs our Puttin on the Stats? article reminds us that Illinois is most certainly a play-on pup. Recent series history (3-0 ATS last three), as well as the numbers, favors the hosts also as the Illini are 6-1 ATS off back-to-back away games while the Wolverines are a not-so-sweet 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Big Ten roadies. In addition, Zook checks in with a 13-3 ATS mark as a conference dog off an ATS win, including a perfect 7-0 ATS as a dog of less than seven points. And to put the finishing touches on what appears to be another November not to remember for the Ann Arbor crew: since 2000, Big Ten road dogs or favorites of six or less points are just 8-25 SU and 11-22 ATS after tacking Kirk Ferentzs Iowa Hawkeyes. Needless to say, it?s just too late in the season to be dancing with these Wolves. We recommend a 1-unit play on Illinois.

Hollywood Sports

Arizona St. at Washington St.
Prediction: Washington St.

Arizona State (6-3) no longer controls their own destiny to win the Pac-12 South after their 29-28 upset loss at UCLA last week. The Sun Devils were riding high after their win over USC but now this team has lost two of their last three games. Now Arizona State stays on the road for the fourth time in their last five games -- and they are just 1-3 away from home. Even worse, the Sun Devils have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Washington State. The Cougars have lost five games in a row but they will be happy to return after two games on the road. Washington State (3-6) is outscoring their opponents by more than ten points a game at home while scoring 39.5 PPG and gaining 443.5 total YPG. The Cougars possess a potent passing attack that averages 298.2 passing YPG (14th in the FBS). While junior Jeff Tuel is out indefinitely with an injury, this has settled the quarterback controversy for the team as the job is now clearly belongs to senior Marhsall Lobbestael who has completed over 60% of his passes along with passing for over 2200 total yards this season with a 7.54 YPA clip. Lobbestael has thrown 16 touchdown passes and he could make life very difficult for a Sun Devils' defense that allows 235.3 passing YPG (72nd in the FBS). The Cougars come off a 30-7 loss at California -- but they have rebounded to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 30 points in their last contest. Washington State has also covered 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog of more than ten points. Lastly, Arizona State has benefited from a +1.56 average turnover margin this season (#4th in the FBS). Unfortunately for the Sun Devils, such disparate high or low turnover margins are not sustainable over time as the luck behind where the bouncing ball goes (from fumbles or tipped passes) deviates back to the norm. The Sun Devils relative luck with turnovers will end sooner or later -- and in the disappointment of their upset loss last week will likely carry over this week in yet another road game for this team. Take Washington State plus the points.

Tom Freese

Nebraska at Penn State
Prediction: Nebraska

With the nightmarish situation currently going down in State College, PA, I don?t see any way that Joe Pa?s Nittany Lions can have any focus as they get set to host an angry Nebraska team that?s off an outright loss to Northwestern last week in Lincoln. Penn State is somewhat of a misleading 8-1 as all five Big 10 wins have come by 10 points or less and they have yet to even face the top teams in the conference. Nebraska is 7-4 ATS its last 11 as a road favorite, including 4-1 ATS when laying seven points or less. Take Nebraska.

John Ryan

Oregon at Stanford
Prediction: Oregon

5* graded play on the Oregon Ducks as they take on the Stanford Cardinal set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This result will certainly shake up the BCS standings next week. The remainder of this article will outline not only this 5* play, but several others that can work in tandem based on the college football odds posted. I will be presenting the summary betting table in tomorrow' article. This would be great news for Boise State as they sit one spot behind Stanford in the fifth post of the BCS standings. They arguably could move up to the four hole in the standings. Oklahoma is the team that has the potential to jump over everyone and get to the two slot presuming LSU wins out. They have the big showdown with now No. 2 Oklahoma State December 3. Point of this is that the loser of this game has no shot at a recovery to play in the BCS Title game. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Oregon will lose this game by three or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. In college football many times the 28 points threshold is critical for a team to win and cover the spread in a game. This is clearly the case in this matchup. The simulator shows a very high probability that Oregon will score more than 28 points in this game. In past games where Oregon has scored 28 or more points they have posted a 5-2 ATS result this season, 18-10 ATS result spanning the past three seasons, and 99-39 ATS since 1992. I fully expect LaMicael James to have a huge game against a strong Stanford defense. This is a contradiction in terms and I am emphasizing that Stanford has one of the best run defenses in the nation, but LaMicahel James and the Zone-Read scheme is just better. Moreover, not many teams in the PAC-12 run this scheme. A team learn all the nuts and bolts of this offensive attack, but practicing it in live situations is vastly different. The tremendous speed across the offensive line is something the Cardinal has not faced and will have a difficult time adjusting to early on in this game. The Cardinal out side linebackers in Chase Thomas and Trent Murphy will do an excellent job at protecting the perimeter and not allowing either Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas or LaMichael James to gain the corner. They learned their less in last year's contest and were just to quick to commit to Thomas and James exploited the perimeter and back side with big plays.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Oregon Ducks +3

Stanford has only played one high-caliber opponent (USC) this season, and it was extremely lucky to escape with a victory. I don't think it will be as fortunate Saturday night as it plays host to an Oregon team that won last year's meeting by 21 points. In fact, the Ducks have won 8 of the last 9 in this series. Oregon's only loss this season came to No. 1 ranked LSU. The Ducks actually outgained the Tigers 335-273 in that game but were done in by 4 turnovers. They have only committed a total of 6 turnovers since that contest and shouldn't be turnover prone against a Stanford defense that hasn't been very opportunistic. USC's offense gave the Cardinal all it wanted and more, racking up 432 yards. So it will no doubt be tested by an Oregon offense that ranks 5th in scoring with 46 ppg and 7th in total offense with 510.7 yards per game. Oregon rushed for 388 yards in last year's win over Stanford, and I'm expecting another big day on the ground from the nation's 5th-ranked rushing attack (298.4 ypg) Statistically, Stanford has done a good job against the run, but keep in mind that it hasn't faced anyone who can run it like Oregon. The Ducks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 3.0 points or less. Stanford takes a big step up in competition here and likely walks away with a blemish. Take the points.

Steve Merril

Alabama vs. Mississippi St
Play: Mississippi St +18.5

If things had gone according to plan, Alabama would be coming into Starkville this Saturday with everything still in place to play for a National Championship. After losing in overtime to LSU in the “Game of the Century” the Crimson Tide now must pick themselves off the turf and try to be focused for this game at Mississippi State. But it is hard to imagine Alabama being motivated after losing the one game that they needed to win, especially seeing that they had a week off to prepare for LSU and had multiple opportunities to win the game. Getting up for a trip to Starkville will be extremely difficult for the Tide this week, especially after all of the hype surrounding their game last week. On the flip side, the Mississippi State Bulldogs were finally able to find some positive momentum as they picked up their first conference win of the season against Kentucky two weeks ago. They followed that up with a 55-17 thrashing of Tennessee-Martin last week. While the Bulldogs’ season has not gone as planned, they will present a stiff challenge to Alabama in this game. The Bulldogs have continued to use a two quarterback system recently and it has proven to be successful. Mississippi State is putting up 400 yards of total offense per game and they are 38th in the nation with 187 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush. The Bulldogs’ defense has been reluctant to give up points as they are 16th in the nation while only allowing 18.7 points per game on an impressive 4.7 yards per play. Alabama is in a major flat spot here as they are off their first loss of the season which more than likely has cost them a shot at playing in the national title game. They also have to lay a significant amount of points on the road into a strong defensive team that is finally playing up to their preseason expectations. Mississippi State is one win away from being bowl eligible and they have plenty of motivation to put out maximum effort this week. We also see some tremendous line value with the Bulldogs as earlier this season LSU was just a 3½-point favorite at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are now getting 18 points at home against a team that just suffered a season-changing loss. This is a great situation for the home dog so we will gladly take the generous points with a team that still has plenty to play for against an Alabama team that is definitely in a letdown situation.

Jim Feist

East Carolina at Texas-El Paso
Play: East Carolina +4

East Carolina (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) uns a no-huddle spread offense led by senior QB Dominique Davis (18 TDs, 12 INTs). They cam smack around bad defenses, as in a a 35-17 rout of Memphis with 522 yards and a 38-35 win over Navy as the offense had 504 yards. The Pirates are 10-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. UTEP (4-5) is rebuilding for Head Coach Mike Price, with suspect QB play and a soft defense. Even Stony Brook had 410 yards (231 rushing) in a 31-24 UTEP win. Rice had a 41-37 win over UTEP Saturday as the defense was shredded for 671 yards (222 rushing). They also stumbled in a 31-13 loss to Southern Miss allowing 450 yards (260 rushing). The Miners are 10-22 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Play East Carolina!

Rocketman

astern Illinois @ Indiana State St
Play On: Indiana State -16

Eastern Illinois is 2-8 ATS since 1997 on Friday nights. Indiana State is 5-0 ATS overall vs Eastern Illinois since 1997. Indiana State was 10-3 SU at home last year where they allowed only 59.5 points per game. Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 Friday games. Sycamores are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Sycamores are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. Sycamores are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games. Sycamores are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. Ohio Valley. Panthers are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Indiana State today!

Sean Murphy

Oregon @ Stanford
PICK: Oregon +3.5

It's gotten to the point where a lot of bettors are just blindly backing Stanford on a week-to-week basis, and why not? After all, the Cardinal have gone a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS to this point, and have shown no signs of slowing down.

Of course, Oregon hasn't been too shabby either. The Ducks were crushed by LSU in their opener, but since then, they've gone a perfect 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS. Each of their failed ATS covers came in games they won by at least two touchdowns.

Stanford QB, and upcoming first overall NFL draft pick, Andrew Luck has looked invincible to this point. However, he'll face some adversity this week, in the expected absence of one of his favorite targets, WR Chris Owusu. Keep in mind, the Cardinal were already dealing with an injury to another key offensive cog in TE Zach Ertz.

Luck will also be facing a Ducks defense that has actually held up pretty well against the pass this season, allowing just 5.9 yards per pass play. Remember, Oregon held Luck to 29-of-46 passing and forced a pair of interceptions in last year's 52-31 win over Stanford.

The Cardinal have really faced only one stiff challenge this season - that came two weeks ago against USC. The Trojans gave them all they could handle on that night, eventually falling 56-48 in triple overtime. I feel the Ducks present even more matchup problems on both sides of the football.

For whatever reason, Oregon hasn't received the same respect it did a year ago, when it went to the National Championship Game, and lost by only three points against Auburn. This is a similar matchup as you can consider Stanford to be this year's Auburn, at least as far as its ATS success goes. That season-opening loss against LSU raised a lot of questions, but I think the Ducks have done a nice job answering them since.

I like the fact that Oregon had to travel to Washington to face the Huskies last Saturday, giving them a nice warm-up in hostile territory before heading to The Farm this weekend. This is a Ducks squad that carries a chip on its shoulder, which is always a good thing when you're looking to back a college football underdog in a game of this magnitude.

We don't need an outright Oregon win to cash this ticket, but that result wouldn't surprise me in the least. The Ducks are capable of trading blows with the Cardinal for four quarters, something that few other teams in the nation can say.

Teddy Covers

Idaho @ BYU
Pick: Idaho +21

Idaho’s season changed in a heartbeat last week. The Vandals trailed 20-0 early at San Jose State last Saturday, well on their way to a seventh consecutive defeat. Several of those defeats were heartbreakers – a one point loss in OT at Virginia, a two point loss to Hawaii, a late goal-line stand costing them a chance at OT in a seven point loss at New Mexico State. Chances did not look good for any sort of Idaho rally.

But Vandals head coach Robb Akey made a QB change to sophomore Taylor Davis, the Idaho defense suddenly stepped up and suddenly the team was rolling with momentum. They outscored San Jose State 32-2 over the next 2 ½ quarters, holding on for the three point road victory. Akey had some great quotes following the game and at his press conference earlier this week.

Akey, talking about the QB change to Davis: “I think since we won, we’ll keep him. We’re like butter now – we’re on a roll. We’ve got to keep it going.” Akey talking about the senior leadership on defense: “(Tre’Shawn Robinson) He’s the Energizer Rabbit. He is persistent and he is positive and he sees what we’re capable of doing.” Akey, talking about idaho getting a rare national TV appearance at BYU: “It’s always good to be seen. Our players are going to be excited about it. Everyone we are recruiting is going to be watching this ball game, and every time they see you on TV and in a positive fashion, it helps you in a big way. It’s a great opportunity for us to showcase the type of football team we are capable of being.”

While Idaho has some positive momentum and some pointspread value, BYU just hasn’t shown any killer mentality all year. Against FBS competition, the Cougars largest margin of victory this year has been by a grand total of 13 points. That win came at home against the same San Jose State team that Idaho just beat. The Cougars offense has been spotty, consistently settling for field goals in the red zone, and their defense has repeatedly struggled to shut opposing teams down. That’s a bad combination for any three TD favorite! Take Idaho.

Scott Spreitzer

Miami FL @ Florida St
PICK: Florida St -9.5

I had the Seminoles last week when they pounded Boston College. And in fact, I have released the Seminoles a couple of times on these pages since their 3-game losing streak. I had stated at one point that it seemed as though the public quickly forgot this team was once ranked in the top 5 in college football and that they came within a few plays of beating Oklahoma in Tallahassee. The fact that they lost to Oklahoma, Clemson, and Wake Forest didn't mean this wasn't a talented team. After all, that was a tough 3-pack to face in successive weeks. The 'Noles were just a handful of plays from beating all three teams, which means they're an underrated 6-3 SU team that's very close to being 9-0 and ranked in the top-5, shooting for a chance at a national championship. I'm a big fan of Miami HC Al Golden. But it's going to take time for the Hurricanes to play exactly his type of football and the off field trouble certainly won't speed up the process. Miami destroyed a struggling Duke team last time out and QB Jacory Harris has been putting up nice numbers. But the loss at home to Virginia a couple of weeks ago hamstrung this team's chances in the ACC's Coastal Division. They're just 1-2 SU on the road this season, allowing over 31 ppg. I believe Miami will hang in this one for a while, but Florida State's talent advantage will take over in the second half. The Seminoles whipped the Canes 45-17 last season, running for 7.3 yards per carry. I don't believe the margin will be quite so wide this season, but I do believe Florida State will win by a couple of touchdowns. I'm laying the points with Florida State on Saturday.

Bryan Power

Florida @ South Carolina
PICK: Florida +3.5

I feel there is tremendous value here on the visiting Gators, who are off five straight ATS losses, and facing a South Carolina team that is now playing without RB Lattimore. The Gamecocks are simply not the same team they were a month ago and considering an outright 16-13 home loss to Auburn earlier in the season, maybe they weren't as good as advertised to begin with. Florida also lost to Auburn - by 11 on the road - but they were w/out starting QB Brantley there. There other three losses were to Alabama, LSU and Georgia. This is a big-time revenge game for the Gators, who lost 36-14 to USC in Gainesville last year as 6.5-point chalk. They are still 17-2 SU L19 vs. the Gamecocks and have not dropped back to back games in this series since 1939! South Carolina is just 1-5 ATS the last six times they've been a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts & they are an even worse 0-11 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. Florida's defense is 4th best in the SEC against the run and gets the big break not having to face Lattimore. It would not surprise me to see the Gators win this game outright. Take Florida.

Joseph D'Amico

Alabama vs. Mississippi St
Play: Alabama -17½

After missing 4 FGs last week in their 9-6 OT loss to LSU, Alabama is angry. They are STILL in the race for the National Title game. This team is well-coached, highly-talented, and pissed-off. The offense posts 35.7 PPG and the "D" yields a mere 7.1 PPG. QB, AJ McCarron has a 65.8% completion rate, 1863 YP, and 10 TDs. The ground attack of Richardson, Lacy, and Fowler have combined for 1891 YR and 25 TDs. Richardson will run amok through the "cushy" Mississippi State defense that allows 161.2 rushing YPG. The Tide's stop unit is ranked #1 in Total "D" (187.0), scoring (7.1 PPG), rushing (56.3 YPG), and passing (130.7 YPG). Alabama faces a Miss State team that bodes well against the likes of Kentucky and Tennessee-Martin but folds like a cheap suit against quality opponents. All 4 of the Bulldogs losses came at the hands of ranked teams. It really doesn't get more ranked than the Crimson Tide. MSU has lost and failed to cover the L3 vs. 'Bama. Injuries to their OL and lack of talent will be their demise here. The road team is 7-3 ATS the L10 meetings. The Tide is 6-0 ATS the L6 road games played as a favorite of 10 1/2 points or higher, 5-1 ATS their L6 games played vs. teams with a winning record, and 5-1 ATS their L6 overall. The Bulldogs are 4-9 ATS their L13 games played in November, 5-11 ATS their L16 games played as a home underdog of 10 1/2 or more points, and 1-4 ATS their L5 overall as a 'dog. take Alabama.