Chip Chirimbes
UCLA at Utah
Play: Utah -6½
Strength against strength as UCLA has developed a running game that will be pitted against one of the nation's top-10 rushing defenses. Bruins lead the series 8-1 and actually control their own destiny in the PAC-12 South but will stumble here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Washington Huskies +12
Coach Steve Sarkisian has made the Huskies relevant again in very little time. The year before he came to Washington, the Huskies were handed a 56-0 loss by USC. In his first season on the job, as a 20-point dog, he led the Huskies to a 16-13 victory over the Trojans. He followed that up with a 32-31 upset victory at USC as a 9.5-point dog last season. With Sarkisian calling the shots, I like Washington in the big dog role once again versus USC. The Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Huskies are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with USC. Take the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit Kansas Jayhawks +20.5
This is a letdown spot for Baylor following last week's big win over Mizzou. The Bears won't get up for lowly Kansas the same way and will likely be looking ahead to next week's matchup with Oklahoma. This is a lot of points for any team to be laying on the road, especially if that team's defense is as bad as Baylor's. The Bears rank 113th in the country in both total and scoring defense with 466.2 yards and 36.8 points allowed per game. Keep in mind Kansas is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games when matched up against bad defensive teams that give up 31 or more points/game. Baylor wins but not by as much as the odds makers think against a Kansas team that is desperate for its first conference victory.
Tom Stryker
Kent State vs Akron
Pick: Kent State
Off back-to-back straight up wins over Bowling Green and Central Michigan, Kent State looks to keep things rolling on Saturday in its annual fight for the Wagon Wheel at Akron. Last year, the Golden Flashes picked up a 28-17 victory over the Zips and, with a bowl game not out of the picture, KSU will look to close hard.
If my college football system book has anything to do with the outcome of this contest, Kent will roll. Since 1980, game nine or game 10 road favorites priced at -15 or less are a stunning 111-62 ATS for 64.1 percent provided they own a won/loss percentage between .125 and .499 and their opponent sports a won/loss percentage less than .500. If our “play on” side enters off a straight up win, this technical situation improves to a powerful 48-13 ATS for 78.6 percent. The Golden Flashes fit both parts of this awesome system.
Statistically speaking, Akron is one of the worst teams in the MAC. When it comes to scoring, the Zips average a measly 15.3 points per game and allow a whopping 34.2 points per game. That’s bad enough to rank UA 12th in the conference in both. It isn’t like Akron has been playing well either. The Zips are just 5-31 SU and 10-22-1 ATS in their last 36 games including a disturbing 1-17 SU and 4-14 ATS in this set matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up win.
Kent’s offense may not be much better than Akron’s. However, on the defensive side of the ball, the Golden Flashes are way ahead of the Zips. KSU is ranked second in the MAC in rushing defense, turnover margin and third in the conference in total defense. Meanwhile, UA finds itself ninth in the MAC in rushing defense, 11th in turnover margin and ninth in total defense.
These two schools are located only six miles apart and they really don’t like each other. The Golden Flashes still have plenty to play for this season and the Zips will be their weakest opponent. Watch KSU’s powerful stop unit make UA one-dimensional and lead the Flashes to their third straight victory. Take Kent State!
Larry Ness
Oregon vs Stanford
Pick: Oregon
Oregon played in last year’s BCS championship game where it lost 22-19 to Auburn while Stanford set a school record for victories by finishing 12-1, after winning the school’s first bowl game in 14 years with a 40-12 Orange Bowl win over Virginia Tech. Oregon would finish as the AP’s No. 3-ranked team and Stanford at No. 4. It should be noted that the Cardinal’s only loss in 2010 came at the hands of the Ducks, who beat them 52-31 in Eugene. In that game, the Cardinal jumped out to a 21-3 lead in the first quarter with the Ducks closing within 31-24 by the half. However, Oregon forced two crucial turnovers and held the Cardinal scoreless in the second half to win going away. RB LaMichael James ran for a career-high 257 yards and three TDs, as Oregon gained 626 total yards (388 on the ground, averaging 7.6 YPC) while Stanford put up 518 yards (Andrew Luck completed 29-of-46 for 341 yards with two TDs and two interceptions). It doesn’t get much bigger than this year’s meeting, as the winner will put itself in line for a possible BCS title-game berth. The Cardinal are in the best shape for that to happen if they were to win (currently No. 4 in the BCS but likely to ‘jump’ Alabama with a win over the Ducks), as they haven’t lost since that October 2 game in Eugene last season. The team’s win streak has reached 17 in a row, including an 11-0-1 ATS over its last 12 wins. As for Oregon, the Ducks lost their first “showdown game” of 2011 to LSU (40-27 at Cowboys Stadium), which occurred way back on this season’s opening week (September 3). Most fans are very familiar with the skill players on both teams, so there is little reason to detail it here. The offensive numbers of the two teams are very similar, Stanford averages 48.2 PPG on 505.8 YPG with Oregon averaging 46.0 YPG on 510.7 YPG. However, while the numbers are similar, the team’s offensive styles are not. Oregon's spread-option, no-huddle offense relies on speed and misdirection while Luck anchors a prolific passing game for Stanford which features a powerful pro-style offense, often using three tight ends or seven offensive linemen. So who wins? I’m taking Oregon plus the points. Here’s the key. Kelly’s Oregon team has had very few problems in his tenure at Eugene (he took over at the beginning of the 2009 season), EXCEPT when on the few occasions when an opponent has had extra time to prepare (either a season-opener or a bowl game). Some will remember that I took LSU plus the points when the Tigers took on the Ducks back on September 3. Here’s what I pointed out in that write-up. ”Let’s note that Chip Kelly’s teams have been held in check in Oregon's 2009 season opener vs Boise St plus the last two years in bowl games. What do these three games have in common? Opponents had “time to prepare” for Oregon’s “blur attack!” The Ducks were held to eight points, six FDs and just 152 yards by Boise St in the 2009 opener and then vs Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, Oregon managed a modest 17 points, 12 FDs and 260 yards in losing to the Buckeyes. I’m sure we can all agree that Oregon’s 2010 opener vs New Mexico (a 72-0 win) tells us little, so jumping ahead to last year’s BCS title game showdown against Auburn reveals another underachieving performance by the Ducks’ O. Oregon gained 449 yards vs Auburn, gaining 23 FDs but the Ducks scored just two TDs while totaling only 19 points. Now remember, this was a team which entered the game averaging 49.3 PPG and 537.5 YPG.” The Tigers beat the Ducks back on September 3, holding Oregon to 27 points (they’ve averaged 48.4 since) and to only 335 yards (they’ve averaged 532.7 since), including 95 rushing yards on 3.4 YPC (they’ve averaged 323.9 YPG on 7.3 YPC since). Here’s the rub. No extra-prep time for Stanford in this one and I don’t believe the Cardinal will be able to contain the Oregon attack, so I’m taking any available points.
EZWINNERS
Texas Tech Red Raiders +17
The Cowboys struggled to put away Kansas State at home last week and now travel to take on a very dangerous Texas Tech team. After knocking off the Sooners three weeks ago, the Red Raiders have looked bad in their last two losses against Iowa State and Texas, but I expect their "A" game in this matchup. This is going to be a shootout and both teams are comfortable playing that style. The Cowboys picked up a 17 point win in Lubbock last season, but that was the first time the road team had won in the last nine meetings between these two teams. OSU now has a bull’s-eye on their back and I expect that to bring the best out of Texas Tech. Statistically these teams are a lot closer than you’d expect given the contrasting records and the Cowboys defense showed last week that their improvement this year has been minimal. Road favorites coming off a straight up win in which they allowed 35 or more points are just 26-41-1 against the spread since 2004. Take the points!
Tony George
Nebraska -3.5
With the national spotlight on Happy Valley, PA right now , it is not so Happy at Penn State right now. A sex Scandal with ex Penn State coach Jerry Sandusky has rocked the campus and shaken the Joe Paterno legacy down to it's very core. Hidden behind the headlines is the fact that the Niitnany Lions face Nebraska this weekend for a crucial game in the Big 10. Actually this game is a diversion for Penn State based on current events surrounding this program. Fortunatley for Nebraska backers is not a diversion but a crucial game after getting a beat down at home last week against Northwestern where they were dominated in a devastating loss. Penn State has a 2 game lead in the Leaders division of the Big 10, and are a 1 loss team overall.
The line opened up at Nebraska -2, and has shot up to -3.5 as of Wednesday and may climb higher before kickoff. Some Las Vegas books and offshore books have taken this game down off the board, but the standing line is slightly over a field goal. Nebraska has an opportunity for a big road win, and the Huskers have performed well on the road at 7-3 ATS (against the spread) their last 10 road games. It should be noted that Penn State is 1-8 ATS against teams with a winning record their last 9 attempts.
While Joe Paterno's future lies in the balance, this surely has an affect on the team and assistant coaches and is a huge distraction. This can affect a team in one of two ways. Either the Lions show up and try and win one for the Gipper, or the lack of focus will in fact be their demise against a focuced and determined Nebraska team. I think it will be the latter. This is not a distraction for Nebraska, and only adds fuel to the fire that Nebraska can use the mass confusion at Penn State to their advantage and win a game that is more or less a coin flip in terms of a side play winner on paper, especially a team off a bad loss traveling to a division leader in confernece action laying points.
Neither teams QB is a world of fire in terms of stretching the field vertically. Last week Penn State beat a solid Illinois team 10-7. Showing in the fact the strength of their team is defense, allowing just 11 ppg this season at home. Their QB McGloin was 9 for 24 for 98 yards an interception. Taylor Martinez for Nebraska is not a throwing QB, but he had a big day against Northwestern throwing and running, and hitting 28 out of 37 for 289 yards and 2 TDs and ran for 53 yards. At days end the tale of the tape is simple, Nebraska's defense is equal and perhaps better, and Nebraska's offense is flat out better, the key in this game is who can make of the most big plays on offense and that favors the Huskers.
Nebraska is the better team here playing against stiffer teams to date, thats why Vegas oddsmakers made them a small favorite. With QB Martinez's ability to run and throw as dual threat, I am convinced with the current state of affairs at Penn State right now, Nebraska will not be affected by those distractions and Bo Pellini and his staff will take care of business and get a win here in a low scoring game. Nebraska's defense is hungry to atone for a poor showing last week, and against an offense not all that good, they should be able to get it done, and NU's offense is good enought to put 17-21 points on the board which in fact should cover this low number.
Could this be Joe Paterno's last game as head coach? Could the storied dynasty of Penn State be forever marred and the legacy of Joe Paterno come to end with a defeat at the hands of Nebraska? Lots of side stories here on a national spotlight level. At days end, Nebraska is in a must win scenario and determined to get back on track, and Penn State is looking for answers amidst the biggest scandal in school history. That benefits Nebraska in this matchup Saturday.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
SOUTHERN MISS -8.5 over Central Florida: Southern Miss is rolling right now as they come in having won 7 in a row after their upset loss to Marshall. The Golden Eagles have outscored their opponents by 23.7 ppg during their 7 game win streak and they have outscored their last 4 Conference USA opponents by 21.5 ppg. Souther Miss has really played well at home as they are 4-0 and have outscored those teams by 24 ppg and have outgained them by 219 ypg. The Eagles defense has allowed just 12.5 ppg at home and that's not good for a UCF offense that has averaged just 17 ppg on the road this year. The Knights defense has been very good this year as they are 4th overall (267 ypg) and 5th in points allowed (15.3), but most of that was done at home, as they have allowed 26.2 ppg and 35 ypg on the road. The UCF defense will have their hands full today vs a S. Miss offense that is in high gear. The Golden Eagles have averaged 37.6 ppg on the year, but in their 7 game win streak they have put up 42.7 ppg, including 38.5 ppg in their last 4 vs Conference USA. UCF has struggled away from home with stunning losses vs UAB and FIU, plus they have losses at BYU and SMU as well and this will be the best team they meet on the road this year. These teams are heading in opposite directions and I see Southern Miss coming up with a nice easy DD win.
4 UNIT PLAY
Penn State/ Nebraska Under 43: A scandal aside there is still a game to be played on Saturday as I see this one going low. A lot of people I see are expecting an easy win by Nebraska as there are a ton of distractions on the PSU sideline and that may very well be, but I see an intense State dsefense taking the field and that will really help keep the score low. The Penn State defense has been very good this year as it ranks 8th overall (282 ypg), 7th vs the pass(170 ypg) and 3rd in points allowed (12.4 ppg). This is a solid defense and with a very weak offense they know they will have to step up big if they hope to win this one. The State offense is 88th (355 ypg) overall and 100th in scoring (21.8 ppg) and they will have a tough time vs a Nebraska defense that has allowed just 23.1 ppg (41st) and 349 ypg (42nd). Nebraska is also 18th vs the pass, but Penn State is nnot a passing team, so I look for the Lions to really used their ground game to control the clock and keep this good Nebraska offense off the field. Nenn State home games have averaged just 33 ppg this year, while their Big 10 home games have averaged just 24 ppg. Penn State will play with more intensitty than you would think and it will begin with their defense, while Nebraska's dfense will also have a great gam. I barely expect 35 points in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
UCLA +7 over UTAH: Last week I had the Bruins as a lesser play and they came up with the outright upset. Well Im gonna come right back to them with a bigger play. The Bruins had a slow start to their year, but this team still has a shot at winning the PAC-12 South. The Bruins come in a very confident team as they are off BB upset wins over ASU and California. Today they get to play a utah team that hsa played well of late, but playing a PAC-12 schedule will begin to take its toll on this team. The Utah offense has really struggled in the PAC 12, as they have averaged just 293 ypg and 18.8 ppg. The Utah dfense has allowed just 340 ypg overall (29th) and 20.7 ppg (20th), but within the Conference they have allowed 388 ypg and 25.3 ppg. This UCLA offense has struggled for much of the year, but they have been getting better as they have put up 30 ppg and 400 ypg in their last 2 games. UCLA's defense has also been getting better as they have allowed just 21 ppg in their last 2 games. The Bruins control their own destiny in the PAC-12 South and they are playing with confidence on both sides of the ball now, so I look for them to come up with another outright upset here.
GEORGIA -12 over Auburn: The Auburn Tigers are the defending National Champs , and they are 6-3 on the year, but it hasn''t been that impressive as they have been still outgained on the year by 46 ypg and even in games where they did win big like vs Miss State and FAU, they where only able to outgain those foes by a combined 40 yards. The Tigers have also struggled on the road this year, going just 1-3 and they have been outscored by 17.5 ppg and outgained by 77 ypg in the process. Today they face va Georgia team that has its sites set on winning the SEC East and a win here and a win next week will give them that title. Both of these teams have solid offenses but Georgia has something that Auburn doesn't and that's a great defense and solid special teams play. The Bulldogs are ranked 7th overall (282 ypg) and 7th vs the run (91.3 ypg), which is what auburn does best, plus they have allowed just 19.9 ppg (23rd), including allowing just 16.6 ppg in their last 5 SEC games. The Bulldogs have also outgained opponents by 140 ypg and have outscored them by 17.8 ppg at home on the year. Georgia has the edge on offense (#37 to #90) and they have a big edge on defense #7 to # 72), plus an edge in specials, the home field edge and they have revenge on their minds after last years 49-31 loss to the Tigers. Too many edges for the Bulldogs here as they win by 17+ and move ever close to clinching a berth in the SEC title game.
2 UNIT PLAYS
NC State/ Boston College Under 45.5: The OU is 5-22-1 in BC's last 28 home games and 5-13 in their last 18 conference games. BC Averages just 21 ppg at home, while NC State puts up just 17 ppg on the road. I see a low scoring game in BC today.
TCU/ Boise State Under 58: Not many people talk about it, but this Boise team has a very good defense as theyb have the 12th ranked defense overall allowing just 303 ypg and they are 12th in points allowed at 16.8 ppg. TCU's defense isn't as strong as in years past, but they are still 38th overall and they allow just 22.3 ppg. These temas have met twice in the last 3 years and an averabge of just 30 ppg have been scored. I don't see this one hitting over 50.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Wyoming +16.5 over AIR FORCE: The Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 as a road dog, while the Falcons are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite of 10.5 or higher. Wyoming is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Falcons and they have really been playing better of late. I look for them to keep it close here.
OLE MISS +2 over Louisiana Tech: The Bullgogs are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games ve a team with a winning record, while the Rebels are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.
James Patrick Sports
UCLA vs. Utah
UCLA was viewed as one of the more disappointing programs in the nation. Now the Bruins control their destiny in the Pac-12 South heading into their game at Utah. UCLA leads the series (8-1) and they see a familiar face as Utah offensive coordinator Norm Chow ran UCLA’s offense the previous three seasons. The Utes are (1-5) ATS in their last (6) home games with the Utes (5-16) ATS in their last (21) games as a home favorite of (3.5) - (10.0). In Saturday College Football action, Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection is UCLA Bruins.
Charlie Scott
Michigan State vs. Iowa
Play: Michigan State -2.5
Michigan St squares off against an Iowa team that isn't as good as season's past. Matchup favors Michigan St as Iowa's defense isn't as good as it nornally is, and I feel Michigan St should be able to run the ball on offense, which will then open up their passing game. Iowa's inept offense is the perfect fit for Michigan St's defense which is good vs the run, but struggles vs good passing team's . Iowa off an upset to Michigan, should have Michigan St focused Today. The line of -2.5 -3 seems a little low since my Power ratings had Michigan St -6.
Rob Vinciletti
San Jose State vs. Utah State
Play: San Jose State +10
What we want to do is play on conference road dogs at 12 or less off a home favored loss at -7 or higher. These dogs have covered to a 73% spread record long term. The Spartans have covered 5 of 7 as a dog this season. Utah. St has some bad home losses this season to Colorado St and LA. Tech. They have also lost both games this season vs teams with a losing record. This appears to be too many points here in this one. Look for San Jose St to at the very least cover the 10 point spread.
Black Widow
1* East Carolina/UTEP OVER 57.5
In a battle between two of the worst defenses in the country Saturday, I'll back the OVER when East Carolina visits UTEP. Both of these teams are coming off shootouts, as ECU lost at Southern Miss 28-48 while UTEP lost at Rice 37-41. ECU is scoring 28.2 points and allowing 41.0 points on the road this season for an average combined score of 69.2 points/game. They are putting up 414 yards/game offensively, but allowing 394 yards/game on defense. UTEP is scoring 29.2 points/game and allowing 30.2 points/game at home this season for an average combined score of 59.4 points/game. The Miners are averaging 414 yards/game and allowing 456 yards/game at home this year. Given these averages alone, you can see why there is some nice value with this OVER tonight. The OVER is 6-0 in Pirates last 6 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. The OVER is 7-3 in Miners last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The OVER is 7-2 in Pirates last 9 road gmaes overall. Take the OVER 57.5 points here.
Steve Janus
Iowa Hawkeyes +3
The Iowa Hawkeyes simply aren't getting the respect they deserve in this game. Michigan State has not looked like the same team since that huge upset win over Wisconsin a few weeks back. The Spartans went on the road and got handled by Nebraska 3-24 and then struggled to put away Minnesota at home last week. Iowa had that awful loss at Minnesota, but the Hawkeyes are a completely different team at home. They are 6-0 at home this season, and are coming in off a 24-16 home win over Michigan last week, who was also favored in Iowa City.
The Hawkeyes offense has been extremely effective at home this season, averaging 36.7 ppg. They have a very balanced attack with sophomore running back Marcus Coker and the passing combination of James Vandenberg and future NFL wide out Marvin McNutt. The Spartans defense was a big reason why Michigan State got off to such a strong start, but they have not looked that great of late, allowing at least 24 points in each of their last three games.
Defensively the Hawkeyes have had their struggles this season, but the same can be said for the Michigan State offense. Iowa will be playing with a ton of motivation knowing they still have a shot at winning the Big Ten Legends division, and I expect them to force a couple of key turnovers to secure an outright win over the Spartans.
Iowa is 18-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
Jack Jones
Wisconsin -27
The Wisconsin Badgers should have no problem beating the Minnesota Golden Gophers by four touchdowns or more Saturday. They bounced back nicely with a 62-17 home victory over Purdue last week, and I expect a similar result in this contest.
Minnesota lost to that same Purdue team 17-45 on the road on October 8th. The Gophers are 2-7 on the season, and they're clearly the worst team in the Big Ten. They are getting outscored 18.7 to 33.7 on the season.
Minnesota is allowing 428 total yards/game on the year, and their run defense is going to get exploited in a big way Saturday. The Gophers are allowing 191 rushing yards/game and 5.1/carry.
Wisconsin running backs and their offensive line are going to be licking their chops heading into this one. The Badgers are outscoring opponents 47.0 to 16.1 on the season, and outgaining them 503-294 this year. They are averaging 246 yards/game on the ground and 5.7/carry.
The Badgers are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Wisconsin is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Badgers are 30-10-1 ATS in their last 41 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Wisconsin Saturday.
SPORTS WAGERS
ILLINOIS –1 over Michigan
Like Oregon, Michigan has struggled with more physical teams. The Wolverines' roster is still full of offensive players recruited to fit Rich Rodriguez's “Spread and Shred”. The Illini have the defensive front to dominate the line of scrimmage against Michigan the same way Michigan State did. Illinois is second nationally in sacks and seventh in tackles for a loss, a bad omen for Denard Robinson, who has not demonstrated good ball security or decision-making in recent outings. The Illini offense has been struggling, as quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has regressed against the better defenses on the schedule and has not managed a touchdown pass to Big Ten receiving leader A.J. Jenkins in the past three games. Michigan, though, doesn't have the defensive horses that the Ohio State Buckeyes or Penn State Nittany Lions boast. Ron Zook's record after an open date is abysmal, but this one came at just the right time for the sliding Illini. Refreshed and refocused after a three-game losing streak, Illinois is looking to make a stand in this game. It's a bad road spot for a Michigan team that will return to the top of the Big Ten under Brady Hoke but isn't quite ready to get there yet. Play: #122 Illinois –1 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
KANSAS STATE +193 over Texas A&M
The demoralized Aggies hit the road for Manhattan to face a Kansas State team that will continue to make its presence felt on the national scene. The Wildcats are being written off by some as simply a decent team that had a hot start, but Bill Snyder's crew is an ever-improving lot that has played just one bad half of football since the opener. This is a potent team with a powerful offense, respectable defense, playmaking special teams and elite intangibles. Collin Klein and the Cats are a power running team that is throwing the ball better than ever but will move the ball easily by both land and air against a banged up Texas A&M defense that wasn't that good when it was healthy and now must prepare for an entirely different scheme than it has seen the past two weeks. This junior-dominated Kansas State outfit is the Big 12's rising power and is more than equipped to finish what the Oklahoma Sooners started last week. The wrong side is favored here, and it won't require the customary second-half collapse for the Aggies to lose this one by double digits, as this intruder closes out one of the more disappointing college football seasons by any program in Division 1. Play: #136 Kansas State +193 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +12 over USC
USC has turned in a solid effort this year despite being ineligible for postseason play, but it's time for the November fade that characterized Lane Kiffin's first season at the helm. Two of UW’s three losses this season came against powerhouses Oregon and Stanford. Playing those two juggernaut offenses has skewed the defensive numbers against Washington somewhat and has added to this point-spread along with the Trojans 18th ranking. What we get here is some big weight with a strong Huskies team that is playing with confidence and is looking to strengthen their playoff position. An underclassman-dominated, injury-riddled Trojans lineup should not be laying double-digits to decent teams and the Huskies certainly qualify as such. Play: #171 Washington +12 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
STANFORD –3½ over Oregon
The two-platoon brain trust of Chip Kelly and Nick Aliotti gives the Ducks an edge on the sideline over a Cardinal staff that's coaching just its 10th game together, but most of the advantages in this one belong to Stanford. It's true that the Oregon defense turned in its best performance of the year last week in Seattle, and facing a physical Washington Huskies running game did provide a nice tune-up for this week. Stanford, however, is not Washington. The Cardinal are 52-for-52 in the red zone and frequently line up in goal-line sets in other parts of the field. This is a downhill team in the mold of the Big Ten and SEC. Oregon doesn't see a lot of this style, and when it does, the Ducks haven't liked it. Physical offenses have consistently given Oregon trouble, and there's little doubt that Stanford will move the chains Saturday. The visitors will get on the board too, thanks to a plethora of speedy playmakers and Stanford's glaring weakness at cornerback. But in the end, Stanford boasts the best player on the field in Andrew Luck and a home-field edge that Oregon hasn't proved it can overcome. The Ducks, who have just 10 seniors, have never beaten a top-five team on the road and haven't bested even a top-20 outfit away from Autzen in the Chip Kelly era. The Quacks would be favored in Eugene, but on the Farm, 3½ points is a reasonable price to lay with the Cardinal. Play: #178 Stanford –3½ +104 (Risking 2 units).