Jimmy Moore
Texas @ Missouri - FX
Pick: Texas -1.5
The Longhorns running game is very strong while the Tigers run defense is struggling right now. Also the Texas defense has been good - holding all opponents to 20 or less outside of offensive powerhouses Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Missouri has given up 31 or more points in their last 3 games and they only have 2 SU wins in conference play this season.
Jack Clayton
Middle Tennessee State at Monroe
Pick: Middle Tennessee State
Louisiana Monroe (2-7 SU/2-5 ATS) finished fourth in the Sun Belt last season with a record of 5-7 (6-6 ATS) and is stumbling again allowing 31 ppg under Coach Todd Berry. Two weeks ago they had a demoralizing home loss to Western Kentucky, 31-28 in OT, despite an edge in yards 456-283. Louisiana-Lafayette scored with 1:06 left to seal a 36-35 win over Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday. That score was one of two by the Ragin' Cajuns in the game's final two minutes. The Blue Raiders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play Middle Tennessee State!
BOB BALFE
Miami +9 over Florida State
Florida State has looked good the last few weeks, but have not played quality football teams and they took a big hit on their offensive line. Miami always has good athletes and I just cant see FSU protecting the QB enough to win by double digits tonight. This is a big rivalry game and I expect it to come down to the late stages of the 4th quarter with Miami having a very good shot to win outright. Take the Canes.
BEN BURNS
Dallas Stars @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings
With last night's 3-0 victory, the Wings have now won three straight. I've been on them for each of those games. They've won them by a combined score of 13-2. In my analysis of their game against Colorado, I noted that the Wings have always been excellent, when coming off a shutout win.
Including a 5-2 win over the Avs, the Wings are now 3-0 this season, when off a shutout win. Going back further finds the Wings at 8-3 (+5.6) the last 11 times that they were off a shutout win, going 68-46 their last 100+ in that situation.
While the Wings continued to roll last night, the Stars saw their winning streak come to an end, losing at Pittsburgh. While the Wings are wrapping up a homestand, the Stars are playing the fourth and final leg of a 4-game road trip here.
The Wings were laying a minimum of -200 seven of the last nine times that they hosted the Stars, including each of the last two. We're laying a much smaller number here and I feel that provides fair value. Consider Detroit.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +144 over TORONTO
The Maple Leafs are coming off a pretty sweet win over the Blues in St. Louis but let’s not ignore that the Leafs were running around in their own end for two periods. They were badly outplayed, outshot and out-chanced over the final 40 minutes and that followed two games in which they were dominated on the scoreboard by a combined 13-1. While it’s true the Leafs are among the leaders in the standings, they are not a front-running team and are more likely a playoff bubble team. A definite correction in Toronto’s W/L record is forthcoming. The Senators are in a funk with five straight losses but it’s not as ugly as it looks. Ottawa outshot Buffalo last night 37-21 and they outshot the Rangers on Wednesday 31-19. That’s some solid defense and shaky goaltending. What we know for sure is that the Sens are undervalued here in a game that they have as good a chance of winning as the Maple Leafs. Play: Ottawa +144 (Risking 2 units).
Winnipeg +108 over COLUMBUS
Scott Arniel is a dead coach walking and when a team is losing at the pace that the Blue Jackets are currently on, playing at home is not beneficial. The Jackets lack of solid goaltending is a huge issue. Steve Mason has lost all confidence and Columbus does not have a suitable backup. The Jackets have allowed an eye-opening 15 goals over their past two games and four goals or more in five of their past six. These early goals against are not only demoralizing but they also turn the fans against the home side. With four days off prior to the game against Chicago and many expecting Arniel to be fired, the Jackets instead went back to the drawing board, implemented a new system and called it a "second training camp" of sorts. The new system was aimed at "clogging the middle" and limiting wide-open looks at Mason, who is having his third straight poor season. The Jackets were routed 6-3 by the Blackhawks and it was hard to blame the new system. It could not be unveiled until the third period because Chicago overwhelmed the Blue Jackets in their own zone. This is a scrambled team with no identity, no direction, no goaltending, two wins in 15 games and any take-back against them is a good fade. Play: Winnipeg +108 (Risking 2 units).
Buffalo +132 over BOSTON
The Bruins stock has soared over their past four games, all wins, in which Boston scored five goals or more in all four games. That’s a pace the Bruins cannot maintain and after facing the Oilers, Islanders, Maple Leafs and Senators, things are going to get a whole lot tougher against these Sabres. Buffalo, too, is hot with four straight wins and having scored 11 times in its past two games. Buffalo is 10-5 while the Bruins are just 7-7 and that’s after Buffalo spent the first week of the year in Europe and suffered a hangover, as did the other three teams that competed overseas. This is the first match-up of the season between these two rivals and last year the Sabres won the last four times. Buffalo is a vastly improved team this season and they’ll come in here and play their hearts out against the champs. In a close game between two of the best, the price offered dictates our selection. Play: Buffalo +132 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +143 over LOS ANGELES
The Kings were projected by many to take that “next step” this season but thus far that hasn’t come close to materializing. The Kings have dropped six of seven and in the six losses they scored two goals or less in each game. Now with that offense laboring, they’ll face the hottest goaltender in the league in Josh Harding. Harding is 4-0-1 in five starts with a 1.18 GAA and a save % of .965. Minnesota has won five of its last six game with only loss over that span occurring in San Jose. Losing is highly contagious and the Kings are a delicate bunch right now with losses piling up. Minnesota is at the other end of that spectrum with a winning and positive outlook. We’d much rather be backing a club that’s winning, taking back a tag than a club that’s losing one laying 7½-5. Of course the Wild can win here. Play: Minnesota +143 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Cain Velasquez (Inside distance)+100 over Junior dos Santos
A great fight featuring the top two heavyweights in the world. Cain Velasquez has only taken five years and nine fights to become the champion. He has a solid wrestling background, having been one of the NCAA's best during his time at Arizona State University where he compiled a 86-17 record. But it’s his improvements in his striking that have made him the champion, having won eight of nine by TKO. Because he’s an excellent wrestler and striker makes him a tough fight for anyone in the world in this weight class. Junior “Cigano” dos Santos comes from a kickboxing background and also has an impressive record of 13-1 and winning all seven in his UFC career. While neither of these two have ever gone five rounds, Cain has the better cardio and can dictate the pace of this fight, wearing down Cigano with takedowns and ground and pound. While Junior did handle a wrestler in Shane Carwin quite easily in his last fight, Cain is a much better wrestler and has a much bigger gas tank. Sometime during this fight Junior will end up on his back and it’s very doubtful that he will be able to sweep Cain and stand back up. The more time he’s on his back, the faster he will tire with all of Cain's weight and pressure on him. Cain wins by ground and pound TKO or by submission. Play: #1009 Velasquez +100 inside the distance (Risking 2 units).
OC Dooley
Kentucky +13.5
Admittedly Vanderbilt has successfully covered the spread in four consecutive contests but 3 times they were cast as an underdog while getting at least 12’ points from the oddsmakers twice along the way. It is rare for the Commodores to be a prohibitive favorite especially in this series which Kentucky has dominated (12-3) dating back to the 1996 campaign. In the past decade Vanderbilt has been a favorite 3 times against today’s opponent and in all three instances Kentucky won OUTRIGHT on the scoreboard. There is good news regarding the Kentucky offensive backfield as freshman quarterback Maxwell Smith is coming off an excellent performance throwing for 283 yards and two touchdowns. From what I have been able to find out the various Wildcat offensive personnel have rallied around the young quarterback and that team camaraderie is high. Sticking with the offensive backfield CoShik Williams has rushed for 100+ yards twice in the past three weeks which has earned him another start. The Wildcats now have plenty of depth as Raymond Sanders (115 yards rushing) is slated to finally return to the field this afternoon after sitting out with a major ankle injury. At the beginning of this campaign Sanders was actually the team’s leading option at running back. For those that get to watch this early afternoon contest keep an eye out for Kentucky linebacker Danny Trevathan who has tackled at least 17 opponents in consecutive contests and now leads the entire Southeast Conference in overall tackles (111). An upset victory this afternoon would still give Kentucky a remote shot at extending their streak of postseason Bowl appearances to six consecutive seasons. My research indicates that the Wildcats have been a solid long term investment (17-6 ATS) when cast as a prohibitive road underdog of between 7’-and-14 points. But the big news regarding Kentucky is that they are UNDEFEATED where it counts the past six years (6-0 ATS) in the game just prior to their annual battle with Georgia
NHL Predictions
Winnipeg Jets +121
Neither of these two teams have had a hot start to the season, but at least the Jets have been somewhat respectable for their Winnipeg fan base with a 5-8-3 record. The Columbus Blue Jackets have gotten off to a brutal 2-12-1 start to the season. Part of the problem for both teams is goaltending. Ondrej Pavelec for Winnipeg is 4-6-3 with a 3.45 GAA and .890 SV%, but there is a chance Chris Mason will get the nod tonight as he returns from the injured list. Mason is 1-2 with a 2.68 GAA and .893 SV%. For Columbus Steve Mason is having a season to forget about, with a 2-11-1 record, 3.88 GAA and .866 SV%. The Jets have won just 4 of their last 10 games, but 2 of their losses were overtime losses and two more were one goal losses that could have gone either way. On the other hand the Blue Jackets have won just two games all season, and are coming off of three losses where they have been outscored 19-6. Columbus is averaging 5 goals against per game over the their last 5 while scoring just 2.2 per game. Columbus may get some much needed help from the return of Jeff Carter tonight, but I don't think that is enough to make them favorites tonight. Winnipeg is the better all around team, and have played much better than the Blue Jackets this season. Take Winnipeg as a nice size underdog tonight.
Wild / Kings Under 5
The Minnesota Wild come into tonight's game after a loss in San Jose Thursday night, which snapped their 5 game winning streak. As a team the Wild have been playing solid lately, but their goaltending has been outstanding. Back up Josh Harding, who will get the start tonight, is 4-0-1 on the year with a 1.18 GAA and .965 SV%. The Los Angeles Kings are slumping right now, with another loss on Thursday at home to Vancouver. The Kings have now lost 6 of their last 7 games. Although not confirmed, I expect Quick to make the start for LA. he is 6-4-3 with a 1.96 GAA and .934 SV% on the season. Take note that the Wild are averaging just 2.1 goals per game and 1.86 on the road, while the Kings are averaging just 2.3 goals per game and 2.11 at home. Also note that the Wild are allowing under 2 goals against per game at 1.87, while the Kings are allowing just 2.25 goals against per game. With numbers like those you can expect a lot of UNDER games, and that is what these two teams have been doing. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the Wild's last 9 overall, and 15-5-2 in their last 22 road games. The UNDER is also 8-1 in the Wild last 9 games playing on 1 days rest, and 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs a team with a losing home record. The UNDER is 4-1-2 in the Kings last 7 home games, and 35-1-6-6 in their lat 57 games as a home favorite. The UNDER is 20-7-4 in these two teams last 13 meetings. Two teams that don't score much and also don't give up many goals deserves a look at the UNDER, and we've got a great price on it tonight. Take the UNDER.
Real Animal
Fresno State / New Mexico State Over
Not sure what is happening with the Fresno State program. The announcer in last week's Louisiana Tech 41-21 win at Fresno suggested the Bulldogs have quit on Hill. It certainly appears so. Fresno has been to a bowl each of the past four seasons. Right now they are 3-6 and come off back-to-back games allowing and 550 yards to Louisiana Tech (after a bye) and 45 points and 581 yards to Nevada. I don't ever recall a Pat Hill coached team with a defense allowing 36.7 points per game. But last year they yielded 30 a contest and it's become worse. I don't know how they get inspired for a trip to New Mexico State. The Aggies have allowed 63, 48, and 45 points in their last three games coming off a trip (paycheck) to Athens, GA last week. But this team can certainly score with 31 or more points in four of their last five games (excluding UGA). New Mexico State is 6-0 'OVER' in their last six games while Fresno State is 5-1 'OVER' in their last six. The Bulldogs are 8-1 'OVER' on the road the past two seasons. As a unit at the QB position, the Aggies have thrown 20 touchdown passes against eight picks. Meanwhile Derek Carr of Fresno has an 18-7 ratio. Fresno put the ball in the air 49 times last week completing 39 for just under 300 yards. Nobody should play a shred of defense tonight in Las Cruces. Tempted to play the dog here as well but will settle for 3* 'OVER' 62.
WUNDERDOG
Buffalo at Boston
Pick: Under 5.5
The Sabres have taken four straight games, and have been getting it done on the back end of the ice. They have allowed just 17 goals in their last seven games despite a 5-spot in OT vs. Winnipeg. The defending Stanley Cup Champion Bruins' squad is waking up after sleep walking through the early games on the schedule, rebounding nicely with four straight wins of their own, allowing just 8 goals against them in the four-game toot. We have a pair of hot teams defending well, setting up for a low-scoring, tight one. The Sabres are now 5-0 to the UNDER in their last five on the road. The Bruins have been a cash machine to the UNDER at home vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600, where they have played 39-15-1 to the UNDER. Play on the UNDER.