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3* on Carolina Panthers +7
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Reasons the Panthers cover:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Any team (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This is a 36-8 ATS System hitting 81.8% over the last 10 seasons.
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2.) Despite being 5-3 this season, Tampa Bay is actually getting outscored 19.6 PPG to 23.7 PPG on average. In their 4 home games, the Bucs are getting outscored by 11.5 PPG. This just goes to show that basically all of their wins have been by close margins, and they should not be 7-point favorites even against the Panthers Sunday. Four of the Bucs' five wins have come by 3 points or less. Bet Carolina on the road.
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Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Play: Ohio State Buckeyes -17½
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Big 10 showdown featuring Penn State (6-3) heading to Ohio State (8-1) in a game that the Buckeyes must win if they are to win the Conference and play in a major Bowl. Ohio State beat Penn State 24-7 last year at Beaver Stadium and now they get home field advantage this Saturday, knowing that they are 7-1 SU & ATS during their last 8 games as hosts in this series. At 3-2 SU & ATS, Penn State has struggled against Big 10 opponents this season and OSU will be the toughest Conference foe that they have played yet. Ohio State plays this following thier bye week, which should be plenty of time to rest their defense, which has been one of the stingiest units in all of College Football this year. In fact, Ohio State's defense has held 6 of their first 9 opponents to 80 yards rushing or less, which will spell trouble for a Penn State squad that is already 0-2 SU & ATS this season when held to 80 rushing yards or less. We don't mind laying the double-digits with an Ohio State team that has scored 36 points or more in 7 of their 9 games, including 49 and 52 points in their last 2 games.
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Penn State @ Ohio State
Take Ohio State -18
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Penn State was a tale of two halfs last week vs. Northwestern, but as we had them on a large play they came back and dominated the 2nd half of the game to get us a win. Ohio State had a bye after they put a beat down on Minnesota the week before. That is where we will first begin this match up with common opponents.
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Anything In Common? Both teams faced Illinois and Michigan. Penn State had the liberty of facing them at home but came away with a 1-1 record while Ohio State went 2-0 on the road and put a beat down on both teams including Illinois which is a very good team. What is more impressive is Ohio State was +31 points in differential vs. what Penn State did and +241 yards and they did all of that on the road when Penn State was doing it at home. Against Minnesota it was more of the same with a +30 point differential and +357 yards. Penn State beat Minnesota by 12 but was -82 yards while Ohio State won by 42 and was +275 subtract and you get the differential I'm speaking of and that's pretty impressive. Some trends are, the home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and Ohio State is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Now handicapping is more than just stats and common opponents, but it's important to point out.
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What's At Stake?
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Penn State clinched a bowl birth but they can do more with a win here and winning in their last two contests, but let's get real here they won't. Ohio State needs to win they are in a tie in the Big Ten and a tie breaker could come down to a BCS ranking. So style points matter and Ohio State has to show why they belong in the Rose Bowl again. At home this team has been dominant and I think they'll be dominant again with 47.3ppg and giving up just 11.3 ppg. Some may say that Penn State has started to click?
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109 points in the last three games sounds great but against who? Total defenses ranked 86th, 114th, and 75th in the nation? Those draw no comparison to an Ohio State ranked #3 in total defense. Matt McGloin has been great with 7 TD and 1 INT but he's about to see speed like he's never seen all year. There have been two teams that draw comparison to what Penn State is on defense and that's Alabama and Iowa. Penn State faced both of those teams on the road and put up a total of 6 points. They only lost by 17 points in each game, but Ohio State is a different type of offense than Alabama and Iowa in that they have Terrele Pryor a mobile QB.
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Penn State has had all sorts of troubles against mobile QB's in Dan Persa, Denard Robinson and Illinois' Nathan Scheelhaase. That will account for more than 24 points.
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Kent St. Golden Flashes PK
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The Kent State Golden Flashes are well equipped to slow down the Black Knights option attack. Kent State has the number one rushing defense in the nation that allows only 69 yards per game on 2 yards per carry and should do a good job here. Army has almost no passing game what so ever and if Kent State stuffs the run like I think they will they will put the Black Knights in a position to turn the ball over a few times like they normally do. This is a very tough spot for Army. They are coming off of a heart breaking loss to Air Force and have Notre Dame on deck and they are favored to win this road game (Army opened as the favorite) even though they are 1-5 straight up and 0-6 against the spread in their six tries as road favorite. Kent State need two win out of their last three games to become bowl eligible and this game is a must win. Play on Kent State.
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San Diego State Aztecs vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Play: San Diego State Aztecs +27
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Last Saturday all my Vegas buddies were all over Utah with the points against Texas Christian (maybe they are too close to Salt Lake) and they were taught a lesson by the No. 3 ranked team in the polls. This week the Horned Frogs return home as almost four touchdown favorites in a spot where they should have a natural letdown. San Diego State (7-2, #6-3) has not always been at their best against TCU (0-5) but this season they have the experience and balance to keep this one close and of course the Frogs figure to be a little flat. Look for TCU to have a slow start and for the Aztecs to hang on...take the points with SAN DIEGO STATE!
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Florida -6.5 vs South Carolina
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The 6-3 Fla Gators are the play boys Saturday night @ 7:15 and they are back in full force! The 24th ranked ball club laying points to a 22 ranked crew is all you need to know as the Vegas odds makers have respect for the Fla Gators! The Game cocks got housed by the Razorbacks last game 41-20 and are a reeling 6-3 ballclub The Game Cocks check in here off that embarrassing loss only 295 total yards and giving up 450 to the Razorbacks and now have to try to crank it up again in the Swamp!! The Game cocks are a poor 1-2 on the road and after a 0-3 middle of the season run the Gators are believing in Coach Meyers and rolled up 465 yrds the last 2 ball games . These Gators own a huge huge series edge 23-4-3 series over South Carolina and a nice 24-14 victory over the South Carolina last season.
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Our Power ratings are @ - 13.5 points to the favorite here. Taking a hard look a the Fla Gators D on third down conversions is a stout crew holding the opposition to 34% success rate. Last week they rolled up 480 yds on O and held the Commodores to 108 total yards.These Gators have only given up 7 rushing tds all season. The #'s check in here @ Fla Gators at home are 6-2 the last 8 meetings and the Gamecocks are 1-4 on the road. We are high on the Gators Qb Brantley who has gained some "mo & confidence" since hanging up Georgia and Vandy W's . The play here is the Gators -6.5 as JR O will knock down a SEC winner on the Gators by 21 points.
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Oklahoma -14.5 vs Texas Tech
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Big 12 battle in Norman with the Texas Tech Red Raiders coming into town feeling pretty good about themselves after upsetting Missouri last saturday night in Lubbock where they got up off the deck from an early 17-3 deficit. Bob Stoops Sooners have clearly shown they are totally different teams at home opposed to when traveling. I expect them to come out this weekend with a vengeance against the Tech team getting too much respect from the odds makers for knocking off a clearly over rated Missouri team. Texas Tech DC James Willis made some adjustments last week and basically shut down the Tigers after the first quarter. Nice job but this unit still has a ways to go and I look for huge days out of OU quarterback Landry Jones against this weak secondary and DeMarco Murray to put up some big numbers on the ground. Last time they met the Red Raiders put as Stoops was quoted " a whoopin on us", I fully expect some major payback here in Norman as it's also going to be senior day and I look for the Sooners to be in no mood for any crap from the visitors. We've been on a nice roll with the freebies, let's keep it rolling here guys. Take Bob Stoops and his Oklahoma Sooner's at home at lay the 14.5.
Brad Diamond
Play Nebraska
Since former DC Bo Pelini of LSU left to become the HC at Nebraska the 'Huskers stock has grown two-fold. With the improved scope of recruiting, the sky is the limit for this legendary program. This Saturday's edition comes from a down Kansas program that has one of the worst defenses in all of College Football. No doubt Nebraska has serious injury problems at the quarterback position, but I doubt that will preclude a wipe out of mistake prone Kansas. KU 0-3 SU on the road with a 1-2 ATS record. Nebraska is 8-1 SU with Texas A&M on-deck. Normally, would consider this is a letdown spot, but the situation is much different with Pelini looking for a quality effort out of the QB position. Lay the wood.
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Oklahoma State vs. Texas
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Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon returned from a one-game suspension in grand fashion, catching 13 passes for 173 yards in a 55-28 destruction of Baylor. The Cowboys' offense moved the ball at win, racking up a stunning 725 yards of total offense in the victory.
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Texas' struggles continued last week as the Longhorns found themselves down 39-0 through three quarters against Kansas State. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert was flat-out awful, throwing five interceptions, including three straight at one point in the game.
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Oklahoma State opened as a 7-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving 80% of spread wagers. In order to offset risk and encourage bettors to take Texas, sportsbooks will usually increase the line due to the lopsided betting percentages. However, this line has dropped two full points to -5, a clear indicator that sharp money is coming down on Texas.
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Sports Insights' Betting Systems have triggered two positive Smart Money Plays on Texas, one each at ABC (+9.38 units) and SIA (+8.31 units), our #2 and #3 ranked sportsbooks, respectively, for NCAA Football Smart Money Plays. With such lopsided betting percentages, this game is also a candidate to be one of this week's NCAA Football Square Plays, which are 35-15 (+17.27 units) this season. As a result, we'll follow the smart money, fade a significant public favorite and take Texas and the points.
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Texas +6
Bettorsworld
South Carolina vs. Florida
It's been a common theme with us, when talking about South Carolina football, to make mention of the fact that Steve Spurrier has yet to really accomplish anything at the school. He has yet to win more than 8 games in any season and has no SEC Titles under his belt. His teams tend to be up and down. As in, up one week, down the next. Inconsistent. A big defensive performance one week and then scorched the next.
This was thought to be his best group of players ever at South Carolina, and while it just may be, it's far from a dominant bunch. But yet, the goal is still right there in front of Spurrier and his Gamecocks. All they have to do, is do something they have never done before. Win in the Swamp. How fitting would that be? The ol Ball Coach propelling himself into the SEC Title game by knocking off the team where he experienced greatness as a player and coach!
Less accomplished Spurrier/Gamecock teams have gone toe to toe with Florida. In 2005 in Spurriers first year at SC, he beat the Gators in Columbia, 30-22. The following year, in his first crack at the Gators in the Swamp, South Carolina dropped a 17-16 decision. Close, but not close enough, although SC backers we're plenty happy as they got the money as +13 point underdogs.
Not many would argue that this years Florida team, is perhaps the worst of the 5 Gator teams Spurrier has faced while at SC, while he fields what is likely his best Gamecock team since he took over. Now, we say the "worst" Gator team, but that is not to imply they are bad. A 3 game losing streak in October with losses to Alabama, LSU and Miss State is why Florida finds itself ranked just 24th in the land. But make no mistake about it, this Gator team can play with any team in the Nation.
But South Carolina has also proved it can play with anyone. They knocked off one of the better teams in the country in Alabama and were a last second incomplete pass away from sending the Auburn game into overtime. The game they lost to Kentucky, they had in the bag at halftime, but let the Wildcats claw their way back and pull the upset. The only game they weren't in, was last weeks loss to Arkansas.
Arkansas was able to pick apart a very suspect Gamecock secondary. South Carolina is 109th in the Nation against the pass, so going up against a top 3 NFL draft pick QB last week wasn't an ingredient working in their favor. They won't face that this week in Florida's John Brantley. Though SC lost cornerback C.C Whitlock to a concussion last week, Florida is ranked 79th in passing yards which should be to SC's liking. This Florida team has relied more on the run, which should suit the Gamecocks just fine as they come in ranked 11th against the run.
When we take the common opponents of these two teams and take a closer look, we see that they are both 4-1 against those opponents with South Carolina winning by an average of 28-18 while Florida win by an average of 35-21. The yards per point numbers using only common opponents, are 14.7 for SC on offense and 18.6 on defense while Florida is 11.4 offensively and a poor 13.6 defensively. This simply shows us that Florida did a better job offensively and made better use of their yards, while SC did a better job of keeping these common opponents out of the end zone.
The talent gap between these two is as close as it's every going to be. This is a golden opportunity for both Spurrier and the Gamecocks program. We catch SC QB Steven Garcia in off his worst showing of the year, which is actually a good thing. Expect a bounce back week.
3* South Carolina +7 (buy half if you need to)
Georgia vs. Auburn
What's the best way for the Georgia Bulldogs to find some meaning in a 2010 season where they currently stand at 5-5 with no chance of playing in a significant Bowl game? Knocking off the undefeated Auburn Tigers would certainly do the job. The Bulldogs are playing good football as their young QB has progressed and star WR AJ Green has returned to the field. Auburn will have to be careful and not look past Georgia. They play Alabama the following week.
This game opened up with the Tigers as a 9.5 point favorite, but since then they have been lowered to 8.5 across the board. Auburn has problems with LB Daren Bates, and CB T'Sharvan Bell who are doubtful due to a shoulder, and hamstring injury, respectively. WR DeAngelo Benton is questionable due to an ankle problem. Georgia doesn't have any new injury problems.
The Georgia Bulldogs are 3-1 in their last 4 games ATS. Auburn is also 3-1 in that stretch. The head to head battle between these teams has witnessed the Bulldogs win the last four in a row. Georgia has had great success on the road, and overall, against Auburn for HC Mark Richt.
Freshman QBs experience all sorts of ups and downs. Bulldogs QB Aarron Murray is without a doubt a future star, but he experienced one of his worst games against the Gators two weeks ago. He passed for 3 TDs, but it was ultimately his 3 INTs that did his Bulldogs in. On the year he has passed for 2,317 yards and 18 TDs. His stats would be better if not for the absence WR AJ Green in the early part of the year.
Green is widely considered the best WR in the nation. Despite missing a large chunk of 2010, he has compiled 510 yards and 7 TDs. RB Washaun Ealey will be a big factor for UGA. They need to get 20-25 carries from him. He played huge to score a whopping 5 TDs against Kentucky, but has been largely ineffective against everyone else. Auburn has proved that they can slip up against the run and this would be a prime time for the sophomore to have a "coming out" party.
The Auburn Tigers offense is powered by QB Cameron Newton. The JuCo transfer fuels every scoring drive. He is a prime candidate for the Heisman Trophy, but recent controversies about agents and cheating at his former school (U of Florida) could mean his mind isn't in the right place. Auburn cannot afford for him to play a bad game. If he comes out and looks shaky the Bulldogs will sharks in the water on defense. Luckily for Auburn fans, Newton has played out of his mind all year and even a small drop off would mean he is still playing at a very high level.
The Georgia Bulldogs have fared well on defense. They rank 23rd in the nation in Points Against and are allowing a meager 19.4 PPG. They have given up 31 points on three different occasions, but by and large this defense can keep up with strong offenses. Cameron Newton will present a very unique challenge. It's tough to gauge how they will respond.
Auburn's defense is nothing to get excited about. They allowed Arkansas to score 43 points with their back up QB playing the majority of the game. The Tigers gave up 31 to a downright awful Ole Miss team. They are 55th in the nation in Points Against at 24.3 PPG.
This game pits a team that is vastly talented and undefeated against one with nothing to lose.
Here are a few reasons why we like Georgia here. 17-14, 27-24, 35-27, 37-34 and 24-17. Those are the scores by which Auburn defeated other "good" teams this year. Their one win over a good team by more than a touchdown came against Arkansas in a game in which Arkansas led in the 4th quarter. Now, this is in no way meant to diminish what Auburn has accomplished this year. This is a good team. Heck, they are undefeated and they play in the SEC. Damn near impossible. They have caught some breaks along the way for sure. Everything is going their way this year. It's just that this is not a dominant team. They are not beating good teams by two touchdowns. Their opponents are always in the game.
It's a dangerous game for Auburn. Alabama on deck. A Georgia team with nothing to lose. The Bulldogs are pointing to this game as a means to salvage a very disappointing season. Many picked Georgia to be on top of the SEC this year, but it wasn't to be. A string of 4 losses in a row back in September put a damper on this season. They have since won 3 out of 4 and almost knocked off the Gators, losing in overtime. So we know this team can play with the big boys.
Georgia's yards per point numbers on offense are as good as Auburns at roughly 12, which means both of these teams can move the ball and make use of their yards. Defensively, the Bulldogs numbers are a point better than Auburn's. Georgia's defense is 13th against the run and they'll get to put that ranking to the test in trying to stop Newton. The Bulldogs are +7 in turnover ration to Auburns +4. Lastly, Georgia has beaten Auburn 4 straight.
The number on this game, at +8.5, is attractive to us. With the way Auburn has won this year, several close, shootout type games, and with Georgia's ability to move the ball and put points on the board, we have to bite here. Having Alabama on deck for Auburn, and the fact that Georgia is pointing to this game as a means to salvage the season, not to mention still needing a win to become bowl eligible, seal the deal.
3* Georgia +8.5 over Auburn
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Michigan @ Purdue
Pick: Purdue +13
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There is no way with Michigan's pathetic defense and Rodriguez's pathetic record in the Big 10 that they should be double digit favorites on the road in conference play. I know the Boilermakers have looked very bad but they have been playing good defensive teams, not the case today. Purdue has covered 7 of the last 10 in this series and remember last year they beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Simpley too many points for this lousy Michigan team to be laying on the conference road.
Joel Tyson
Miami-Florida at GEORGIA TECH (+3)
Whether is is Jacory Harris or Morris under center in this game, they both have been prone to being careless with the football and the way the Georgia Tech defense is maturing under Al Groh, that could spell trouble.
Yes, Nesbitt is out for Tech, but backup Washington actually looks like a better passer than Nesbitt and that will give the triple-option just another wrinkle that Miami will have to worry about.
The Jackets covered at Virginia Tech their last time out, and are now 7-3 when getting points under Paul Johnson.
The 'Canes were able to beat the Yellow Jackets handily last season, but Tech had won and covered 4 in a row prior to that setback.
Dangerous home dog today, especially with Miami just 12-22 when favored since the 2007 season.
Take the points.
2♦ GEORGIA TECH
Derek Mancini
Texas A&M at BAYLOR (+3)
Baylor was crushed by Oklahoma State last week 55-28 in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. And that says something with the Bears losing by 27 points. It was a 41-7 game in the third quarter and the Cowboys rolled up 725 total yards in the rout.
So why back Baylor today? Because last week's lopsided loss was no surprise after the Bears pulled off a stunning upset of Texas in Austin the previous Saturday. Talk about a letdown spot.
This week it's Texas A&M's turn as the Aggies are primed for a huge letdown after their stunningly easy 33-19 upset of Oklahoma as a home dog last Saturday. And I should know since A&M was the 1st Ever 100 Dime College Football Release of my Career.
Big revenge game for the Bears, who were destroyed 38-3 last year in College Station. But today they're in Waco and that's trouble for the Aggies who are 3-18 SU and 4-17 ATS in November road games since 1998.
Texas A&M has owned this series over the years going 21-2-1 SU, but both of those losses came in their last three visits.
Baylor wins and covers in revenge as Texas A&M is caught flat after its Oklahoma upset.
2♦ BAYLOR
Chuck O'Brien
S. Carolina (+6') at FLORIDA
Great line value in this contest. That’s because South Carolina is coming off an ugly 41-20 home loss to Arkansas (as a four-point favorite) while Florida returns home off its 55-14 destruction of Vanderbilt as a 14-point road favorite. But here’s the hidden secret: South Carolina had absolutely NOTHING to play for last week – that game against Arkansas was totally meaningless because win or lose, the Gamecocks still had a chance to clinch the SEC East with a victory tonight in The Swamp.
In retrospect, I absolutely should’ve been on Arkansas plus the points last week, because the situation set up perfectly for South Carolina to come out flat. As for the Gators’ win at Vandy, um, so what? The Commodores are dealing with a rash of injuries and have rarely been competitive the last six weeks. Let’s not forget that Florida was VERY lucky to escape with a 34-31 overtime win over Georgia two weeks ago, and that followed a three-game losing streak to Alabama, LSU and Mississippi State (with the Gators scoring just 42 points in those three defeats).
South Carolina (7-3 ATS last 10 as an underdog; 4-0 ATS last four after a straight-up loss) will bring a MUCH better effort on both sides of the ball this week than it did seven days ago. Meanwhile, I’m not at all convinced that Florida has solved its offensive problems because it exploded against two weak defensive squads. Put it this way: The Gamecocks rolled up 35 points against Alabama on Oct. 9 … one week after Florida mustered just six points against the Crimson Tide.
3♦ SOUTH CAROLINA
Karl Garrett
Vanderbilt at KENTUCKY (-15)
I see no reason why the Kentucky WIldcats won't pile on against the Vanderbilt Commodores in Lexington.
Vandy has really been decimated by injuries, and their current 4 game losing streak sees the 'Dores being outscored, 168-35! That kind of disparity tells the G-Man that even catching 2 TD's won't make a difference in this game.
Vanderbilt has dropped 4 in a row, and 6 of their last 7 this season when catching points, while Kentucky has been a cash cow at home this season, going 4-1.
Kentucky has also owned this series with wins and covers in 7 of the last 9 conference showdowns.
Finally, the Wildcats become bowl-eligible with one more win, and with this being their home finale, look for the fireworks to ensue.
Kentucky takes this big.
5♦ KENTUCKY
Chuck O'Brien
Mississippi St. (+13') at ALABAMA
Saturday’s first of two complimentary selections in college football comes from SEC country, as I’ll take the points with surging Mississippi State at vulnerable Alabama.
The Crimson Tide are coming off last Saturday’s devastating 24-21 upset loss at LSU – devastating because it ended their shot at back-to-back national championships. With that goal, as well as an SEC title, no longer realistic, I expect an unfocused, lethargic effort from ‘Bama tonight. And we’ve got a little recent history to back up that presumption, as it was exactly a month ago that the Tide were coming off their first regular-season loss in 2½ years – the 35-21 setback at South Carolina – and they hosted Ole Miss at home. That night, Alabama went through the motions in a 23-10 home win, falling way short as a 20-point favorite; in fact, Ole Miss outrushed the Tide 133-100.
Mississippi State (7-2, same record as Alabama) is on the rise and certainly much better than Ole Miss. Since dropping two straight to Auburn (17-14) and LSU (29-7), the Bulldogs have won six in a row, including consecutive road victories at Houston and Florida. Mississippi State has been playing outstanding defense all season, allowing just 17 points and 337 total yards (115 rushing) per game. Only three opponents – LSU (29), Houston (24) and UAB (24) – have tallied more than 17 points against the Bulldogs.
At the same time, Alabama’s offense is stagnating. Take away a 28-point second half at Tennessee two games ago, and the Crimson Tide have generated just 78 points in their last 3½ games. So you’ve got a solid defense going up against a mediocre offense, and the latter is laying nearly two touchdowns – and doing so in the ultimate letdown spot.
The road team has covered in seven of the last nine in this rivalry, with the Bulldogs cashing in four of their last five trips to Tuscaloosa. Meanwhile, Alabama is just 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss.
4♦ MISSISSIPPI STATE
Karl Garrett
Utah (-6) at NOTRE DAME
Good chance for Kyle Whittingham's Utes to get some of their swagger back this afternoon in South Bend, as Utah will take on a Notre Dame team that has lost both their starting quarterback, and a starting running-back to injury.
It is an Irish team that is on an 0-2-2 spread slide their last 4, and a winless 0-3-3 spread slide their last 6 under Touchdown Jesus!
Utah was dominated at home last week by a very solid TCU team, as the Utes were nearly shutout in that 47-7 humiliation. Look for their offensive fortunes to change against a yielding Notre Dame defense.
Certainly a chance for the Irish to gain some respectability here, but remember that Utah is still a positive 6-1-1 against the spread when laying points this year.
After such an ugly home loss last week, the Utes take out their frustrations on a Notre Dame team that is backsliding.
Lay the road wood.
3♦ UTAH
DWAYNE BRYANT
Penn State / Ohio State Under 49.5
PSU scored just 3 points in road tilts at Alabama and Iowa earlier this season. And while the offense has shown improvement with Matthew McGloin under center, McGloin has yet to face a defense anywhere near the caliber of this Buckeye stop unit that is #3 in the nation (13.6 points allowed per game). The Nittany Lions can play some D, too, ranking 28th in the nation in points allowed per game (20.1). The players change, but the fact remains that this has been a low-scoring series in recent years. In fact, the last four games in this series that were played in "The Horseshoe" have all gone UNDER the total, with scores ending with 19, 34, 31, and 20 total points. The UNDER is 11-1-1 in PSU's last 13 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more. I see more of the same in this one. The UNDER looks like a very solid small action wager.
Steve Merril
South Carolina at Florida
Play: South Carolina 7
South Carolina played poorly in their 41-20 home loss versus Arkansas last week, but that game had no meaning on who would represent the East Division in the SEC championship game in Atlanta on December 4th, so South Carolina’s lack of focus is understandable. This will not be the case this week as tonight’s matchup versus Florida has major implications on the division title.
Arkansas matched up well last week as the Razorbacks have one of the best passing attacks in the country and they matched-up extremely well against South Carolina’s mediocre secondary. The Gamecocks are poor in defending the pass as they allow 67% completions and 8.0 yards per pass this season; however Florida is less likely to exploit this weakness. Florida’s offense isn’t capable of picking apart South Carolina’s secondary as the Gators have thrown the ball for less than 220 yards in 7 of their 9 games this season and overall Florida averages just 6.6 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 6.9 ypp). Aside from their shaky pass defense, South Carolina’s defense is solid as they allow just 21.9 points per game and only 5.5 yards per play (versus opponents that average 30.6 ppg and 6.1 yppl).
South Carolina is especially strong against the run, allowing just 105 yards per game and only 3.1 yards per carry (versus opponents that average 157 yards and 4.4 ypr), so the Gamecocks should be able to contain Florida’s spread option attack. The Gamecocks also lead the SEC in sacks with 32, so even if Florida decides to pass more than usual in this game they’ll have to deal with Carolina’s pass rush.
South Carolina’s offense has been consistent all season. They’ve scored less than 20 points just once all year and they’ve scored 27 points or more in 6 of their 9 games. A major reason for their consistency has been their SEC-leading 52.7% third-down conversion rate. Florida’s defense allows close to 40% on third downs, but that number is a bit misleading as it was much higher before holding a weak Vanderbilt offense to 2-of-16 on third downs last week. This makes South Carolina a live underdog tonight and last week’s results have provided extra line value with the Gamecocks.
Scott Spreitzer
Nevada @ Fresno St.
Pick: Fresno St. +8.5
I had Nevada on these pages when they walked all over California. I went against Nevada on these pages and we cashed with Hawaii. And what I have learned as the season has progressed is that the Wolf Pack are the same old...Wolf Pack. They're a good team, but far from great. They can be had on the defensive side of the football. And a quick defense can limit the Nevada offense as we saw in Honolulu. Those who have followed me this season already know the respect I have for Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick. But he can't get it done on his own. And except for last week's win at Idaho, the Wolf Pack have been nothing special away from home. As mentioned, they lost outright at Hawaii, looked leaky on defense in the win over a horrible UNLV team, and beat BYU in Provo by 14, certainly nothing to write home about considering the state of this year's Cougars. With Boise State looking so dominant, no one has mentioned that Fresno State is still in the running for the WAC title. Obviously, the Broncos are the league's best team, but FSU only trails them by one game in the standings. Fresno has won three in a row and the offense is purring behind a new-found running game. It took a while to replace RB Ryan Mathews, but Robbie Rouse is beginning to "get it." He had a ridiculous game last week against La Tech and should have little trouble running through the Nevada run defense. When the Bulldogs run the ball effectively, QB Ryan Colburn generally flourishes. He'll find plenty of open space against a Nevada defense that allows over 259 yards passing per game, which ranks them 108th in the nation. The Bulldogs have suffered a few bumps and bruises up front, but the mediocre Pack won't be able to take advantage. Meanwhile, there's nothing wrong with the Bulldog stop unit. They rank 35th against the pass and 38th overall. Combined with an offense that averages 34.8 ppg on the season, and we have a formidable foe for the over-valued Wolf Pack to deal with. Then again, Nevada usually is over-valued on the road which shows in their 1-8 ATS mark as a road fave of 3 1/2 to 10 points. Meanwhile, FSU has been "money" as a home dog in the same line range, going 8-2 ATS the last 10 times. I mentioned earlier that the ground game is finally clicking for the Bulldogs. That's been a "play-on" sign under Pat Hill. The Bulldogs are on a 7-0, 100% ATS run after rushing for at least 200 yards in their previous game, with an average final score of 41-24. They'll continue the momentum in this one with their fourth straight win, as far as I'm concerned. I'm taking the points with Fresno.