David Chan
Utah @ Notre Dame
PICK: Utah -5.5
No Dayne Crist. No Armando Allen. No Kyle Rudolph.
And No Notre Dame cover.
It's time to face facts: Notre Dame isn't very good and Brian Kelly is a false messiah more Gerry Faust than Knute Rockne.
When we last looked in on the Fighting Irish they had the ball at the Tulsa 19-yard-line with less than 40 seconds left trailing 28-27. No problem right? After all, the Irish have David Ruffer, one of the top kickers in the country being a perfect 13-for-13 in field goals.
Instead of running the ball into the center of the field, though, Kelly has freshman Tommy Rees loft a pass into the end zone that is picked off and Tulsa beats a BCS team for the first time in 12 years.
The Irish losing at home to Tulsa as 9 1/2-point favorites wasn't a fluke, though. Notre Dame lost by 18 against Navy as 6 1/2-point favorites the previous week.
Notre Dame is 4-5 and not nearly as good as Utah. There's a clear class difference in this matchup, but the line isn't as high as it should be because the Irish were idle last week and the Utes are off a crushing 47-7 home loss to TCU.
OK, so the Utes aren't a top-five team and TCU is. The Utes still are ranked in the top 15 and they will be up for this game. It's Utah's first game ever against Notre Dame. It's a rare chance for the Utes to get national television exposure.
Utah ranks ninth in scoring averaging 41 points. The Utes are giving up 17.8 points, 14th-best in the country. Notre Dame ranks 100th in rushing and 62nd in scoring defense allowing 24.9 points.
Notre Dame seniors have lost 26 games, the most in a four-year span since 1900. They are used to losing. Kelly has done nothing so far to change that or to warrant any confidence.
Larry Ness
Stanford @ Arizona St.
PICK: Arizona St. +5.5
Arizona State suffered an absolutely heartbreaking loss at USC in the Coliseum last week, losing a 34-33 squeaker. In 2007, Thomas Weber was an All American place kicker for the Sun Devils. Last Saturday, he missed a possible game-winning 41-yard field goal with just 1:42 minutes left in the game. Earlier in the 4th quarter, his extra-point was blocked and returned by USC for a defensive two-point conversion to narrow Arizona State's new lead to just 33-31. As you can see, that made the difference in the game. Now at 4-5 on the season (with two of their wins against teams from the FCS), the Sun Devils must win their last three games of the season to become bowl-eligible. This is all very unfortunate for Arizona State, as the Sun Devils are a pretty darn good football team. That visit to USC concluded a brutal stretch of ASU's schedule in Which the team had to play four of five (and five of seven) games away from home. Now the Sun Devils return to Tempe where they have covered in SEVEN of their last eight games. It was right here in Tempe where the Sun Devils outgained the No. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks earlier this season by almost 200 total yards. Arizona State gained an amazing 597 total yards of offense against the Oregon defense. However, what may have been even more impressive was, ASU limited the potent Oregon offense to just 405 total yards. What cost the Sun Devils were their five fumbles (losing three of them) and four interceptions, a huge part of the reason why the Ducks survived by a 42-31 score. For comparison's sake, Stanford lost to Oregon this season by a 52-31 score in a contest where the Cardinal were outgained by just over 100 yards. This Arizona State team also traveled to Madison back On September 18, barely losing (21-19) to a Wisconsin team that would dominate Ohio State by two TDs less than a month later. This is a very dangerous team that is 16th in the FBS is passing (292 YPG). At home, the Sun Devils are scoring 42 PPG along with gaining 523.2 total YPG. QB Steven Threet will lead an offense that will threaten a solid but unspectacular Stanford defense that ranks just 41st in the FBS against both the pass (204.3 YPG) and the run (138 YPG). Jim Harbaugh's club comes off a 42-17 win over Arizona last week. Despite the decisive win, the Cardinal run defense showed some cracks by allowing the Wildcats to average 5.8 YPC on the ground. Behind QB Andrew Luck, Stanford possesses a pro-style balanced offensive attack that averages well over 200 YPG with both the pass and the run. Overall, the Cardinal are 5th in the FBS with their 42.3 PPG average. However, the Sun Devils will challenge this offense as they are 25th in the FBS in run defense (121 YPG). Arizona State holds opponents to under 300 total YPG and just 17.8 PPG on its home field. The Arizona win concluded a nice part of the season for Stanford, where the Cardinal played three of their four games at home. At 8-1 on the season, Harbaugh's club still has very high aspirations for their postseason, and they still have a date in Berkeley next week against their Bay Area rival, California. Could Stanford be looking ahead? The Cardinal better not be, since the home team has covered in EIGHT of the last 10 meetings between these two schools. Arizona State poses a VERY dangerous stumbling block for Stanford and this is a very good situation to take the home underdog.
Dennis Macklin
Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan
Play: Western Michigan -18½
The Mack Attack has your back in all sports. NBA is just heating up and college hoops for real is right around the corner. The hardwood money train is just getting ready to leave, get on board early and cash all year long.
This is a big number to lay with the Broncos but probably worth a flyer as the WMU has been dominant in the series (15-3 L18) and the EMU's god awful at 1-20 SU and 7-14 ATS over the last two years with no end in sight. In fact, since snapping 18-game skid Oct 16th with OT win over Ball State, the Eagles were drubbed by 27 by Virginia and 42-7 by Toledo and we all saw the real Toledo Rockets defense last night vs N Illinois. The Broncos can throw it around against anyone (296 ypg) and typically shred this kind (Akron 380, Toledo 403) for big numbers. Can they slow down Eastern enough to get the generous three TD number ??? Thinking that 21 point Bronco wins in '08 and '09 says yes. Western Michigan 45-17.
Tom Freese
San Diego State Aztecs vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Play: TCU Horned Frogs -27
San Diego St is 7-2 straight up this year. The Aztecs are 5-12 ATS their last 17 games off a straight up win. San Diego St is 3-7 ATS their last 10 Conference games and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 November games. TCU is 10-0 straight up this year. The Horned Frogs are 48-22 ATS their last 70 home games. TCU is 34-16-1 ATS their last 51 Conference games. The Horned Frogs are 22-10 ATS their last 32 games favorites of 10.5 or higher.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on South Carolina Gamecocks +7
Steve Spurrier has struggled against his former school, but he finally has a football team capable of getting the job done. Motivated by a loss to Arkansas, the Gamecocks will be ready to shake things up in The Swamp.
Looking at the numbers, this is a great spot for S. Carolina. In fact, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, against an opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 30-9 ATS the last 10 seasons. These teams have been listed as underdogs of 7.1 points on average and they have won in this situation by an average score of 24.8 to 24.6.
In addition, the Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. They are also a reliable 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
S. Carolina showed that it is a different team this season when it rose to the occasion and thumped Alabama by two scores. The Gamecocks will be ready to go this evening. Take the points.
Bob Wingerter
Boston College Eagles vs. Duke
Play: Boston College Eagles -3
Coach Frank Spaziani's second season at Boston College has not gone as smoothly as his first year, as the Eagles have just four wins on the year. However, two of those victories have come in the team's last three matchups, and that includes a 23-13 decision over Wake Forest this past weekend. It was the first road win on the year for the Eagles, and the team's second victory in league action. The Blue Devils opened the season with a victory over Elon, but that was followed by six consecutive setbacks, four of which came by a double-figure margin. However, coach David Cutcliffe's team could have packed up the season, but instead his troops have reeled off two consecutive wins, defeating Navy (34-31) and most recently Virginia (55-48). Boston College owns a 3-1 edge over Duke in the all-time series, but this will be the first meeting between the two schools in Durham. The last time these two teams collided the Eagles grabbed a 28-7 victory over the Blue Devils.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Notre Dame +6
In Utah's eyes, last week's game against TCU was the season. The Utes were absolutely crushed 47-7 by the Horned Frogs. It's going to be very tough for Utah to recover from that shocking blow in South Bend against a Notre Dame squad coming off a bye week. In addition, this is Notre Dame's last home game of the season. They'll be ready to go. The Irish, like most good college football programs, have been strong off byes. In fact, the Fighting Irish are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week. The line is also significant when you consider that Utah is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points, including 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Meanwhile, the Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. Coach Kelly is 11-2 ATS in his career when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%), defeating these squads by an average score of 28.1 to 21.0. Take the Irish.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas State +13/+4.08 over MISSOURI
12:30 PM EST. The Tigers awful loss last week to the Red Raiders and their loss to the Cornhuskers the week before ended all shots at the Big-12 title game. Missouri was 7-0 before these two losses and the coaches and players are surely a little shell-shocked to see their season go up in smoke in such a short span. That puts this team in a very fragile and vulnerable state of mind. They also couldn’t have picked a worse opponent to face this week in the Wildcats, who smoked Texas 39-14, a win that undoubtedly boosted the confidence of an already good squad. Kansas State is going to a bowl game but perhaps more importantly have a real shot of running the table if they win today. That would put them at 9-3 and most probably in the top 25, a realistic goal that all hinges on today’s game. The key will be to stop the Tigers from scoring because the Wildcats are just as potent on offense as Missouri is. Kansas State actually averages more points and rushing yards than the Tigers and convert 42.5% of their third downs. Contrast that to the 34.6% third down completion percentage of the Tigers, a number that puts them last in the Big-12, and you start to see why the Wildcat defense will be the key to the game. The defense isn’t terrible by any means; K-State allows an average of 24.3 points per game. Last week against Texas they picked off quarterback Garret Gilbert five times, an excellent sign that this team has playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. If the Wildcats can keep DeVion Moore, Henry Josey and Kendal Lawrence in check they will flat out win this game. Look for Bill Snyder to pull out all the stops on offense in order to take a quick lead and force the Tigers to throw. Missouri is a wounded boxer waiting to be knocked out. Their confidence is low and their psyche is very fragile. The Wildcats have an excellent shot at winning this game outright. Play: #177 Kansas State +13 +1.00 (Risking 2 units). Play: Kansas State +4.08 (Risking 1 unit).
Memphis + 17 over MARSHALL
3:00 PM EST. We’re not going to make a case for the Tigers and we don’t have to because laying 17 points with the Thundering Herd is very unlikely to turn out well. We don’t care that Memphis is 1-8 and has been outscored 251-60 in the past give games. We don’t care that their defense gives up an average of 477 yards per game. No, this wager is about betting principle and principle says you don’t lay 17 points with a team that two weeks ago was 1-6. Marshall has won two games in a row but so what, this is a team that lost to horrific Bowling Green 44-28 and averages 18 points a game. Think about that for a second in relation to this wager. The books have made Marshall 17-point favorites - which means if you lay the points today you’re betting the average number of points the Thundering Herd average a game. That’s before even considering the abomination that is the Marshall defense, one that allowed 44 points to Bowling Green and allows 31 points a game. The defense also gives up 400 yards per game and allows 58.6% of all passes thrown to be completed. Simply put, the defense can’t stop the run or pass. When you’re a 17-point favorite, that’s kind of important. Memphis won’t win this game but they have a first year coach who isn’t going to be fired and that means the players who will be back next season will play hard until the end. This wager isn’t about the Tigers, it’s about understanding pointspreads in relation to team statistics. We’ve made the case why it’s a terrible idea to lay the 17 points with the Thundering Herd and make a play on the other side. Play: #163 Memphis +17 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Jeff Benton
Normally I wouldn’t touch the Falcons as this big of a favorite when they’re coming off their most important win of the season – a 42-22 road rout of Army that gives Air Force possession of the coveted Commander in Chiefs trophy that goes to the top service academy team each year. But New Mexico is in its own letdown spot, having finally gotten in the win column with last week’s 34-31 come-from-behind home victory over New Mexico.
You know the old cliché “one victory does not a season make”? Well, it does for New Mexico, which hadn’t tasted any success at all prior to seven days ago, losing nine straight overall dating to last year’s season finale. Even with the Wyoming victory, the Lobos remain just 2-23 since October 2008, with 17 of 23 losses by double digits. And of those 17 double-digit defeats, 10 were by 24 points or more (five of which have come this season).
Air Force has four losses this season, but they were against four teams (Oklahoma, San Diego State, Utah and TCU) that sport a combined record of 32-5 – and three of those defeats were by a total of 10 points. The Falcons’ six wins, on the other hand, have been by an average of 20.2 points per game, and now they’re facing an opponent that’s lost three road games this year by scores of 72-0, 38-14 and 45-10. The first was to Oregon (understandable); the other two were at Colorado State and UNLV, two teams that are a combined 4-15!
Air Force has a massive fundamental edge here, as it averages 310 rushing yards per game (5.6 per carry), while the Lobos’ defense gets ripped for 240 rushing yards per game (5.3 per carry) – hence the reason New Mexico is allowing an average of 42 points per contest!
The Falcons have won five of the last six meetings against New Mexico (cashing in all six), including last year’s 37-13 rout in Albuquerque as a 16½-point road chalk. Obviously, Air Force is laying double that tonight, but it is the team’s home finale and the Falcons have covered in 12 of their last 15 against losing teams and eight of 11 in November, while the Lobos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road game and 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a road underdog of more than 10 points.
6♦ AIR FORCE
John Ryan
Utah at Notre Dame
Prediction: Utah
5* graded play on Utah as they host Notre Dame set to start at 2:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Notre Dame will lose this game by more than 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-7 ATS for 81% winners since 2000. Play on a road team off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival and with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This system has produced a stellar 16-2 ATS mark since 2005. 50% of these plays have covered the spread by more than 7 points. Utah is a perfect 6-0 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season. There is a near certainty that Utah will gain more than 6.5 yards per play in this game. The biggest factor is IUtah will dominate the line of scrimmage and their power running game will completely wear down the Notre Dame defense. Note that Notre Dame is just 4-22 ATS (-20.2 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards since 1992. Utah?s rushing yards could easily exceed 200 yards in this game and I would not be surprised to see that total nearly reached by half time. Take Utah.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Georgia at Auburn
Look for the Cam Newton debacle to distract the Tigers, who have lost four straight to UGA anyways and by an average of two touchdowns. The Georgia offense is averaging over 42 PPG the last five games, making them truly a dog with some bite. HC Richt is 17-7 ATS in road games vs. teams with a .700 win percentage or better.
Play on: Georgia
SEAN MURPHY
Georgia @ Auburn
PICK: Auburn -6.5
Georgia has had its way with Auburn over the past four years, winning each meeting - but keep in mind, the Bulldogs have been favored in the last three.
This time around, it's the Tigers that come in as the favorite - and for good reason.
With all of the negative press surrounding Auburn QB and Heisman front-runner Cam Newton, there are many bettors that question where his head will be at this Saturday. I'm not at all concerned, and in fact, I expect Newton to play with a chip on his shoulder - as if he needed any extra motivation.
We've made some serious cash backing the Georgia Bulldogs this season, but this appears to be the proper point to jump off. My concern with this team is their inability to stop any offense with a pulse. They've given up 31 points vs. Arkansas, 29 against Colorado, 31 at Kentucky, and 34 against Florida. Their defensive numbers aren't bad on paper, but when the competition has stiffened, they've had a really tough time getting stops.
While I do have a lot of respect for the Bulldogs offense - led by QB Aaron Murray - I'm confident that the Tigers can slow them down. Georgia relies heavily on its run game to set up the pass, but what happens if they can't get anything going on the ground? Note that Auburn has allowed just 2.9 yards per rush here at home this season.
It's one thing to say you're going to limit a guy like Cam Newton, but it's another thing entirely to actually go out there and do it. Auburn has had a few scares this season, but I don't think this will go down as one of them. Look for the Tigers to approach 40 points and ultimately pull away in the second half. Take Auburn.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Virginia +2.5
The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 in this series, and they have won the last 2 by 31 an 11 points respectively. With this being their final home game of the season, they'll be ready to pull off a 4th straight win over the Terps. The Terrapins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite and certainly can't be trusted here. Take Virginia.
Jack Jones
Nevada -8.5
I'll take Nevada to roll over Fresno State Saturday. The Wolf Pack have been one of the most impressive teams in the country this season, especially offensively. Nevada set an FBS record with 844 total yards last week in a 63-17 crushing of Idaho. The Wolf Pack are averaging 44.2 PPG this season and 556 total yards per contest. Defensively they've been decent, allowing 22.2 PPG overall and 20.7 PPG on the road. That's the difference for them this season is the fact that they are actually stopping people, while continuing to score at will.
Nevada is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in two meetings with Fresno State over the last 2 seasons. The Wolf Pack beat Fresno State on the road 41-28 in 2008 behind 600 total yards of offense, and followed that up with a 52-14 thumping in 2009 at home behind 506 total yards. I see no way the Bulldogs can stay within double-digits of the Wolf Pack in this meeting, either. Fresno is 0-8 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons, and 1-9 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Nevada Saturday.
O.C. Dooley
Florida State -6
Last Saturday we all saw legendary Joe Paterno pick up career victory #400, but the same plateau for Bobby Bowden was unceremoniously denied by Florida State which are now under pressure to make the coaching change to Jimbo Fisher look good. Florida State is coming off consecutive games where they had a legitimate shot to win at the end. In one setback they had a “first and goal” with less than one-minute remaining and promptly fumbled the football (and the game) away. In the other outing the Seminoles (7 seconds left) missed a 40-yard field goal that definitely was makeable. One thing the Seminoles have done correctly all season is on defense where they have given opposing quarterbacks headaches. For the season Clemson has rushed for 100+ yards on the ground just 2 times when playing on the road, which opens the door for Florida State’s vaunted pass rush which currently leads the entire nation. It was a couple of weeks ago when Clemson lost #1 rushing option Andre Ellington (684 YR, 5.9 ypc, 10 TD runs) for at least two games with a foot injury, so odds are this evening they will be forced to pass the football too often. Florida State has COVERED the spread 5 times in the last six meetings with Clemson in this series, and my database research indicates that it is always dangerous to give up on the Seminoles when they are having problems “in the wallet”. Florida State is a very productive 18-5 ATS long term as a favorite, when shaking off consecutive “spread” setbacks. Getting back to this Tigers/Seminoles series, the HOME team (7-1 ATS) is on quite a roll dating back to the 2002 campaign