Matt Fargo
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Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh U
Play: Notre Dame +7
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People that saw the final score of the Navy/Notre Dame game saw the Irish losing as big favorites and that is it. People who actually watched the game saw a different story and while Notre Dame did lose, the final score does not come close to telling the true story. The Irish outgained Navy by 108 total yards as they racked up 512 yards of offense while posting 32 first downs. Turnovers and miscues did Notre Dame in however as its give it up three times inside the redzone, once on a fumble, once on an interception and once on fourth down while also missing two field goals. Take away even a couple of those and Notre Dame wins the game and the line against Pittsburgh is a field goal at most. The Panthers have had two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame even though it had a game against Syracuse this past weekend. The Panthers have been working on Notre Dame since the win over South Florida two weeks ago according to some sources and this will be the fourth straight week they have not had to travel, with a bye week included in there, and that is a big benefit. In this series however, I am not too worried about the travel as the last four meetings have been won by the road team including Pittsburgh’s overtime win last season. It was pretty clear that Notre Dame was not fully focused in that Navy game and that was obviously a mistake. Playing a revenge game against a team that is now ranked in the top ten in two polls should get their attention and if it doesn’t, the program is in for a huge fall as Notre Dame is pretty close to once again falling into mediocrity after such huge expectations. The Irish matchup better here than they did against Navy and while the Midshipmen tore trough them for 348 yards rushing, that has been something they have not been able to stop the last three seasons. The Panthers bring in a more conventional running game and one that Notre Dame held in check pretty good last season. On the other side, Jimmy Clausen is still third in the nation in passing efficiency and he had one of his better games last season against the Panthers. Pittsburgh was 35th in passing efficiency defense last season and it is 49th this season so he is quite capable of another big game. Golden Tate, arguable one of the best Notre Dame player names ever, has been solid at receiver as he is third in the nation in receiving ypg, and now that Michael Floyd is back, the Irish have the best receiving duo in the country. Floyd had 10 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown so his time off certainly did not affect him at all. His best game last season came against the Panthers as he hauled in 10 catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Notre Dame falls into a great contrarian situation here. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss as a double digit home favorite after the first month of the season. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1992. The logic makes perfect sense as the underdog cannot be that bad in this game if it was just a double-digit favorite last game making this an overadjusted line shift. This also falls into the great system of playing on a team that just looked bad on national television the previous week. Don’t be surprised to see Notre Dame turn the tables on the Panthers this week. 3* Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Wunderdog
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Houston U vs. Central Florida
Play: Houston U -4.5
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This is a big challenge for Central Florida as they have an offense that ranked dead last of all teams last year. They have moved up this season, but not by much as they rank 109 out of 120 teams. While the defense remains the stability of this team, they are going to see more offensive firepower here than they have seen all season. Houston had the best offense in football last year and sits atop again this season at 42 points per game. The Cougars' offense is for real as they have played against three BCS Conference schools and averaged 35 points against them! Against anyone else, the offense has been even better at 45.6 ppg. These teams didn't meet a year ago, but as a marker of UCF against an elite offense, the Knights were torched for 49 vs. Tulsa last year with their No. 43 ranked defense. This year their defense has dropped to No. 56. I find it difficult to believe that they can keep this Houston team away from 40, and the Knights have reached the 30 mark just three times in the last two years. I'm going with Houston in this one.
Tom Stryker
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UCLA vs. Washington State
Play: UCLA -17
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After opening the season with an impressive 3-0 SU record, UCLA has fallen on hard times in its last six games posting a dismal 1-5 SU record. Of course, it should be noted that the Bruins five losses have come against the likes of Stanford, Oregon, California, Arizona and Oregon State. There are no cupcakes in that lineup.
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Still, at 4-5 SU and with three games remaining, UCLA head coach Rick Neuhisel can guide his youngsters to a bowl game provided he close with victories in two of his last three games. The Bruins finish at home against Arizona State and on the “road” at USC so that makes today’s game at Washington State a must win situation.
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Knocking off Washington State shouldn’t be a problem for the Bruins even if this game is up at Pullman, WA. The Cougars have really struggled in Pac 10 action posting a soft 17-39 SU and 23-33 ATS record in its last 56 games including a weak 5-12 ATS in this role priced as a big dog of +16 points or more.
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It is noted that WSU has posted a surprising 6-1 SU and 7-1 ATS record in its last eight meetings against UCLA. However, since 1980, game nine or later sub .500 road favorites priced at -10 or more are a bankroll building 49-31-1 ATS including a blistering 22-9 ATS in this role checking in with momentum off a straight up win. The Bruins fit this system and the special parameter!
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UCLA has matured over the past six weeks and the Bruins will be elated to take out their frustrations on this overmatched Washington State bunch. Take Ucla!
Bob Wingerter
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Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Kentucky -3
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Setting a schedule of 12 games in as many weeks doesn’t make sense for a program that faces the challenges that the Commodores do, not having nearly enough depth or athleticism to hang through those S.E.C. battles. And taking on Georgia Tech outside the conference only exacerbates those issues. Now we find them in game #11 of their arduous slate, and having faced the physical ground games of first Tech and then Florida the past two weeks makes this a much tougher setting than the oddsmakers are calling for. Kentucky not only got a chance to coast vs. Eastern Kentucky last week, but it gave Derrick Locke the opportunity to take a week off, and also provided a terrific setting for young QB Morgan Newton to continue to develop his confidence. The return of Trevard Lindley in the secondary also makes a big difference this week, and having won at Auburn and nearly done the same at South Carolina (they were a missed two-pointer from going to O.T.) the Wildcats have shown the road moxie to handle this trip.
Murray Hill Mike
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Notre Dame at Pittsburgh Panthers
Prediction: Pittsburgh Panthers
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The Pittsburgh Panthers running game has not dropped off at all after LeSean McCoy entered the NFL this past season. Replacing him is a 5?8? Freshman Dion Lewis who is ranked seventh nationally with 126.6 rushing yards per game and needs just 190 yards to surpass McCoy's Big East freshman record of 1,328. They will be facing a Notre Dame defense that allowed 348 yards on the ground in a 23-21 loss to Navy last Saturday. Pittsburgh is a perfect 5-0 in the Big East and 8-1 overall and are looking to finish strong to get that BCS bowl nod. Consider the team trends. Notre Dame is 2-10 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game, 0-7 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest, 32-58 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders, 1-3 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63, 2-7 ATS when playing on a Saturday, 3-7 ATS in November games, 1-4 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders, 0-5 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, 3-10 ATS off an upset loss as a double digit favorite, 2-7 ATS off a home loss, 0-3 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points, 1-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread and 1-5 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in home games off a home win against a conference rival, 33-18 ATS off a win against a conference rival, 4-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, 11-5 ATS in the second half of the season, 8-3 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games, 5-1 ATS off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals and 5-1 ATS after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points. Take Pittsburgh
Marc Lawrence
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Miami FL at North Carolina
Prediction: North Carolina
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Butch Davis and the Tar Heels host Miami in a key ACC showdown in Chapel Hill Saturday afternoon. North Carolina opened 2009 ranked #20 in the preseason polls but even though the Heels have managed a 6-3 record, it’s been a monumental struggle for UNC’s offense, averaging just 15.2 PPG against ACC opposition. Fortunately for the Tar Heels, Carolina owns the No. 5 overall defense in the land, allowing just 250 YPG, our database favors the home dog Heels. The Hurricanes own a dismal 1-7 ATS mark as ACC road chalk of 7 or less points and they’re just 2-6 ATS away from home off a double-digit conference home win. Meanwhile, Carolina checks in with a super 10-1 ATS log when wearing the dog collar versus a conference foe at Kenan Stadium. Stay at home with the Heels here today.
SEAN MURPHY
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Georgia Tech @ Duke
PICK: Geo Tech -12
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After last week's overtime scare against Wake Forest, I don't think that Georgia Tech is going to take anything for granted this Saturday against Duke.
That narrow 3-point win brought an end to the Yellow Jackets 6-game ATS winning streak, but did extend their overall SU win streak to seven games.
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Ever since dropping a 33-17 decision in a Thursday night game in Miami back in September, Georgia Tech has been untouchable on the road, posting a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS record. Note that the Yellow Jackets own an incredible 20-8-1 ATS record in their last 29 lined road contests.
Duke had its 3-game winning streak snapped at the hands of rival North Carolina last Saturday. The Blue Devils were lifeless on offense in that one, scoring only six points. Their offense has been one-dimensional this season, averaging 7.3 yards per pass play but just 2.2 yards per rush. That type of attack isn't going to get them very far against a defense the caliber of Georgia Tech's.
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Statistically, Duke actually owns a stronger defense than Georgia Tech. Of course, the game isn't played out on paper, it's played on the field, and there I expect to see the Yellow Jackets dominate. The Blue Devils have faced an easier schedule this season, with only Kansas and Virginia Tech posing serious offensive threats. Those two teams hung 44 and 34 points on the board, respectively.
Georgia Tech has outgained its last three opponents by more than 600 total yards combined. This is a team that had really been rolling before needing a fourth down conversion in overtime to slip past the Demon Deacons last week.
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This is certainly a favorable matchup for them, as they've defeated the Blue Devils in each of the past five seasons, covering the spread each time out as well. That includes two wins on the road, by 25 and 17-point margins. A similar result on Saturday will be more than enough to cash our ticket. Take Georgia Tech.
TEDDY COVERS
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UCLA @ Washington St.
PICK: UCLA -17
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Washington State is worth betting against in this spread range at every reasonable opportunity. The Cougars aren’t just bad – this is the worst BCS conference program in the country right now, by a fairly wide margin. Duke is contending for a bowl bid, Baylor just won outright at Missouri and Vandy went to a bowl last year. Heck, Syracuse or Louisville would be favored by a touchdown or more against Paul Wulff’s hapless squad on a neutral field.
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Last year, Wassou was outscored by an average of 43-12, and outgained by more than 200 yards per game. This year, the Cougars might be even worse, particularly on the defensive side of the football. The Cougars defense has allowed 40+ in four of their last five games. The only gave they didn’t allow 40+ was entirely due to turnovers – six of them to be exact – and the Cougars still lost the game at home by a couple of touchdowns.
It’s surely worth noting that in every one of those blowout losses, the damage was done by halftime. Had the Cougars opponents not let off on the gas pedal, every one of those games could have been a 60 point loss for Washington State. It’s also worth noting that since the defense forced six turnovers against Arizona State, they’ve managed to force only two turnovers in the last three weeks combined.
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UCLA is not going to lay off the gas pedal here. The Bruins are still clinging to bowl hopes, needing two more victories to become bowl eligible. The Bruins finally got off the schnied last week, beating Washington despite a five turnover performance from their offense. A banged up UCLA team with no quarterback, no offensive line and no skill position weapons still beat Wassou by 25 last year. This time around, they’ll have a healthy Kevin Prince throwing downfield, and a dramatically improved OL and receiving corps compared to last year. Washington State at the current number (+17) against PAC-10 foes over the last two years? How does 2-13 sound? 2* Take UCLA.
DAVE MALINSKY
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Michigan @ Wisconsin Nov
PICK: Wisconsin -8.5
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IF the foundation is being properly built, the second half of season #2 is when we begin to see tangible improvements on the field after a major coaching change has taken place with a program. But sometimes that can be a big IF. That is not what we see in Ann Arbor, and with the marketplace badly over-rating Michigan right now we will not hesitate to go to the well again.
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This is the fourth consecutive week that Rich Rodriguez and the Wolverines have drawn backing in the early trading, and we can understand part of where the first money would have come from – after hanging tough at Iowa in early October, and then trouncing Delaware State 63-6 in a walk-over the following week, savvy observers could believe that turn was taking place, and want to buy in early. They helped to set us up with an easy 4* Penn State ticket three weeks ago, and created that 4* opportunity with Purdue at a full +7 last Saturday. And while there is Michigan money showing again, the evidence for us is clear that the Wolverine engine has not been built yet to run with much horsepower.
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Instead of improving down the stretch we see the Maize and Blue crumbling, and in the current 0-3 SU and ATS run they have lost to the spread by a combined 72 points, or an average of 24 per game. When a team is falling that far from expectations it can never be reduced to a single factor, and it has to be viewed as a combination of talent, coaching, and effort, with the latter two factors particularly ugly right now. At this point in the season coaching and effort show up in the second half of games. The better coaches obviously make better adjustments, and when a team has the hunger to win they execute those halftime designs with vigor. But in the second half of the past three games Michigan has been out-scored by a stunning 75-12. And it is not as though the Wolverines have been backed into a corner and forced to try desperate things – they were only trailing Penn State 19-10 at intermission, and had the lead vs. mediocre Illinois and Purdue. When the latter two smack you for 76 points and 994 yards of total offense, you are not only struggling physically, but also at a fragile state mentally.
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You do not want to show up fragile at Camp Randall in November. The same Purdue team that won at Ann Arbor last week was buried here 37-0 two weeks ago, and the Badgers are going to bring a particularly sharp focus this week. Brett Bielema has talked about LY’s 27-25 loss at Michigan being the most frustrating of his coaching career, coming on an afternoon in which his team built a 19-0 halftime lead and was clearly superior physically, but there were a couple of monster fourth quarter turnovers (an INT that was returned for a TD, and a fumble lost inside the Michigan 10-yard line) that turned the scoreboard around. That sets this up awfully well for our purposes – one of our favorite concepts in sports is the favorite playing with revenge that blew a big lead in the previous defeat. The films serve as a reminder that you can never take a play off no matter how big of a lead you have, so they come in with the natural aggression to even the score from that giveaway, and also the mindset to keep adding to the margin to prevent a re-occurrence from the previous collapse. With Wisconsin being the physical style of play that is so ideal in November (the Badgers out-rushed Purdue and Indiana by a 250-123 count the past two games), we have a favorite that can pound the struggling underdog into submission.
Dennis Macklin
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UTEP vs. SMU
Take SMU -6
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After winning just one game last year, June Jones has the 5-4 Mustangs in a position to get Bowl eligible. Hard to figure the Miners who beat Tulsa and Houston at home but are just 1-3 SU and ATS on the road with losses at Memphis and Tulane. Couldn't find a worse spot in second of three roadies. Swallow hard knowing SMU is 0-6 L6 as a fave and rushes for less than 100 ypg but ... the Miners give up a whopping 467 (211/256) ypg and 144 points in their last three road games. Last week, SMU took a half to get going against Rice. Razor sharp Mustangs roll 45-24.
Jim Feist
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Louisiana Tech vs. LSU
Play: Over 46½
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La Tech (3-6 SU/4-4 ATS) has a very good offense despite a tough schedule, averaging 27 ppg behind junior QB Ross Jenkins (12 TDs, 5 INTs) along with senior RB Dan Porter. The defense hasn't been sharp, as in a national TV disaster, a 37-14 loss at Nevada allowing 511 yards (345 rushing). La Tech didn’t play that well the last game in a 45-35 loss to Boise, getting outgained 504-250. The Bulldogs are dangerously thin in several position groups after being hit hard by the injury bug in the last few weeks. That will be a problem against the LSU Tigers (7-2), an offense with speed and a big O-line. After battling SEC teams like Auburn and Alabama, the Tigers finally get to bust out offensively against a smaller foe in this high scoring game. Play LSU/La Tech Over the total.
John Anthony
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Nebraska vs. Kansas
Play: Under 43
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Last week we used Oklahoma/Nebraska under as the Free Play and were rewarded with an easy 10-3 winner. Right back with Nebraska here as the Blackshirts are in mid-90's form allowing 10.3 ppg, allow just 93 ypg overland, and just 272 ypg overall. The Jayhawks have gone in the tank with four straight losses and just 44 points in their last three games. Don't see the Jayhawks getting ten here and the Huskers on offense would be life and death to get 24 against Delaware State. Play the Under.
Black Widow
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1* on Baylor +24
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Baylor has played very tough the last 2 weeks, losing 10-20 to Nebraska and winning at Missouri 40-32. The Bears have a chance to knock off Texas at home Saturday, and though they may not get the job done, we feel they easily have what it takes to stay within 3 touchdowns of the Longhorns. Baylor lost by 24 at Texas last year, and in 2007 they lost 10-31 at home. This Bears' team is one of the most talented in school history, and they are coming off a game where they threw for 427 passing yards against the Tigers last week. The Bears can score enough points to keep it close Saturday. Texas is scoring 34.7 points/game on the road, which is a solid number, but it's not mind-blowing and doesn't justify this inflated line. Baylor is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons. Texas catches the Bears playing their best football of the season on the road Saturday. Take Baylor and the points.
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
WVU +9 vs Cincinnati
Baylor +23.5 vs Texas
BYU -26 vs New Mexico
Notre Dame +7 vs Pittsburgh
Single Plays
SMU -7 vs UTEP
Colorado +5.5 vs Iowa State
Arizona +3 vs California
UCLA -17.5 vs Washington State
Mississippi State +12.5 vs Alabama
Illinois -5.5 vs Northwestern
Wisconsin -8.5 vs Michigan
OSU -12 vs Washington
South Carolina +17 vs Florida
Marshall +3 vs So. Mississippi
LARRY NESS
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Miami FL @ North Carolina
PICK: Miami FL -3
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Miami opened the season by facing four consecutive ranked teams, winning three of them (lost 31-7 at Va Tech). Miami's chances of reaching the ACC championship game are slim, as the Hurricanes could be eliminated from contention for the Coastal Division title if No. 7 Georgia Tech defeats Duke in a game scheduled for earlier on Saturday. However, a 3-0 finish would give Miami a 10-win season for the first time since 2003. North Carolina comes in 6-3 overall but a disappointing 2-3 in ACC play. Butch Davis is 2-0 SU and ATS vs Miami since taking the job at North Carolina, including the Tar Heels' 28-24 win last year in Miami, North Carolina's first since 1957. The Tar Heels fell behind by 14 points early in LY's game but rallied to win on a TD pass with 46 seconds left. Neither team has much of a running game, as North Carolina averages 141.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) and Miami 136.6 YPG (3.8 YPC). Miami owns a huge edge at the QB position, as Harris is averaging 259.6 YPG (18-12 ratio) through the air with Carolina's Yates averaging a woeful 142.0 YPG (9-10 ratio). North Carolina owns the edge on defense allowing 15.3 PPG (11th), as Miami allows 23.2 PPG. The Tar Heels rank 5th in overall yards (249.4 YPG) and their pass D is quite good, ranking fifth while allowing 157.8 YPG through the air with just four TDs against 10 INTs. This is one of those teacher (Davis) vs pupil (Shannon) games and as mentioned earlier, Carolina's Davis has bested Miami's Shannon (his former assistant) in each of first two meetings. While this is North Carolina's final home game, I favor Miami's "revenge motive" plus the Hurricanes' better offense, particularly Harris over Yates. Take the road favorite.