SPORTS ADVISORS
(16) Utah (8-1, 3-6 ATS) at (4) TCU (9-0, 6-2 ATS)
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TCU continues its quest for a coveted BCS Bowl berth, and likely the last hurdle to earning that prize are the Utes, who bring a six-game winning streak into Amon G. Carter Stadium in Forth Worth, Texas, for this Mountain West Conference showdown.
Utah clobbered New Mexico 45-14 last Saturday, outgaining the Lobos 557-334 and barely covering as a 27½-point home favorite. During their six-game winning streak, the Utes have scored at least 22 points in every game (29.8 ppg average) while yielding 17 points or fewer in all six (14.8 ppg average). In fact, going back to last season – when it went 13-0 and finished ranked No. 2 in the national polls – Utah has surrendered 17 points or less in 14 of its last 16 games, allowing an average of just 15.4 ppg. Meanwhile, the offense has tallied at least 22 points in 20 of 22 games since the beginning of 2008, scoring 30 or more 14 times.
Since suffering a last-minute 13-10 loss at Utah a year ago, TCU has reeled off 11 consecutive wins, and the Horned Frogs are 23-2 SU in their last 25 games (16-7 ATS in lined action). Last week, TCU followed up a 41-0 home rout of UNLV as a 35-point chalk with a 55-12 beat-down of San Diego State as a 24½-point road favorite, putting up 500-plus yards in both wins. Since a 20-17 victory and non-cover at Air Force, the Horned Frogs have won their last four games – against Mountain West foes Colorado State, BYU, UNLV and San Diego State – by a combined 175-25, easily covering the spread in all four and helping the team jump up to No. 4 in the national rankings.
TCU has surrendered 17 points or less in 16 consecutive Division I-A games and 19 of 20 against I-A foes since the start of the 2008 season. Take away a 35-10 loss at Oklahoma last year, and the Frogs have given up just 25 touchdowns since the beginning of 2008. Moreover, TCU has yielded 10 points or less 12 times in 22 games going back to the beginning of last year. The Horned Frogs rank in the Top 10 nationally in scoring defense (11.2 ppg, fifth), total defense (240.6 ypg, third), passing defense (150.9 ypg, fourth), rushing defense (89.7 ypg, seventh), rushing TDs (3, tied for third), scoring offense (37.4 ppg, seventh), total offense (458.6 ypg, eighth) and rushing offense (242.1 ypg), sixth).
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Last year in Salt Lake City, TCU jumped out to a 10-0 first-quarter lead and led 10-6 late in the fourth quarter. But the Frogs missed two field goals on their final two offensive possessions, and Utah followed up the second miss by driving down the field and scoring the game-winning touchdown with 48 seconds left to prevail 13-10 as a two-point home underdog. TCU lost despite a 444-275 edge in total offense, including 193-45 in rushing.
The Utes are now on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, and they’ve won five of six meetings since 1996 (4-2 ATS). In the last clash in Fort Worth in 2007, Utah earned a 27-20 upset win as a four-point underdog.
Utah, whose only loss this year was a 31-24 road setback to then-unranked Oregon, has yet to face a ranked team this season, but it is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 against Top 25 foes. The Horned Frogs crushed their only ranked opponent this year, hammering BYU 38-7 as a 2½-point road favorite three weeks ago.
The Utes are 1-3 ATS in their four road games this year, but they’re 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 as an underdog, 25-7-1 ATS in their last 33 as a road underdog (14-10-1 last 25), 5-0 ATS in their last five as a double-digit pup and 4-0 ATS in their last four in November.
TCU has cashed in 19 of its last 24 at home since 2005 and is 43-18 ATS in its last 61 at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Furthermore, the Frogs are on pointspread rolls of 37-18-1 overall, 19-7-1 against Mountain West rivals, 7-2 when laying more than 10 points, 12-3 as a home favorite of more than 10 points and 9-2 in November
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All four Utah-TCU clashes this decade have stayed under the number, with an averaged combined point total of 35. The under is also 3-0 in all three lifetime battles in Fort Worth. As a team, Utah is on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall and 4-1 in conference, while the under is 4-1-2 in TCU’s last seven overall and 6-1-2 in its last nine as a double-digit chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and UNDER
(15) Iowa (9-1, 6-3 ATS) at (10) Ohio State (8-2 SU and ATS)
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The Hawkeyes attempt to rally back from their first loss of the season, but will have to do so without starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi as they head to Columbus for a Big Ten clash with Ohio State.
After a slew of narrow and/or come-from-behind victories, Iowa’s magic finally ran out last week in a 17-10 loss to Northwestern as a 15-point home favorite, with four second-quarter turnovers proving costly. The Hawkeyes not only saw their 13-game winning streak halted, but they lost Stanzi for at least the rest of the regular season when he broke his ankle in the first half. Stanzi’s replacement, freshman James Vanderburg, struggled against Northwestern, going 9-for-27 for 82 yards with no TDs and one INT. It was just his second game appearance and first since Week 2 at Iowa State.
Ohio State went to Happy Valley last Saturday and dominated Penn State 24-7 as a five-point road underdog. The Buckeyes owned a 353-201 edge in total offense, including 228-76 in rushing, as it marked the first time this year they won a game without scoring at least 30 points. Ohio State has won three in a row by the combined score of 107-14 (3-0 ATS), and it has given up 14 points or less in all eight wins. In its two losses, coach Jim Tressel’s team scored season-lows of 15 and 18 points while allowing season-highs of 18 and 26 points.
With two games to play, both teams – which are tied atop the Big Ten standings at 5-1 SU and ATS – control their own destiny for the conference crown.
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Ohio State went to Iowa City in 2006 – the most recent meeting – and rolled 38-17 as a seven-point road favorite and is now 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings since 1992 and 7-1 ATS in the last eight. The Hawkeyes are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five trips to the Horseshoe, losing by point margins of 25, 9, 30, 16 and 21. The SU winner has covered in each of the last eight head-to-head clashes, and the favorite got the money in all eight of those contests.
Iowa has won and covered in all four of its road games this year, going 3-0 SU and ATS as a road underdog, and is 6-0 SU and ATS in its last six on the highway, giving up a total of 46 points. Additionally, the Hawkeyes carry positive ATS trends of 8-3 overall, 10-1 on the highway, 6-1 as an underdog (all on the road), 9-2 against teams with a winning record, 25-10 after a SU loss, 35-17 as an underdog and 5-2 in Big Ten action.
Ohio State also sports a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 35-17 overall, 5-0 at home, 35-17 in conference, 38-17 as a favorite, 6-1 when laying more than 10 points, 5-0 in November and 7-0 against opponents with a winning record.
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The Hawkeyes are on “under” runs of 22-10-2 overall, 22-5-1 on the road, 15-5-1 as an underdog and 20-7-1 as a road pup. Likewise, Ohio State is riding low-scoring streaks of 7-1-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1-1 as a favorite, 4-1-1 in Big Ten play and 7-0-1 after both a SU and ATS win. Finally, the last two series meetings between these schools at Ohio Stadium stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
(25) Stanford (6-3 SU and ATS) at (11) USC (7-2, 2-7 ATS)
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A week after crushing seventh-ranked Oregon at home, Stanford heads south to Los Angeles for a Pac-10 battle with the 11th-ranked Trojans, with both teams still in the hunt for the league title.
Oregon had won seven in a row overall and seven in a row over the Cardinal when they went to Stanford Stadium last Saturday, but Stanford jumped on top early and led wire-to-wire in 51-42 victory as a seven-point home underdog. QB Andrew Luck passed for 251 yards and two TDs, while RB Toby Gerhart gashed the Ducks for a school-record 223 rushing yards and three TDs on 38 carries, and the Cardinal prevailed despite getting outgained 570-505. Stanford has scored at least 24 points in seven straight games, eclipsing 30 points in five of those contests (including the last three in a row).
USC struggled all night at Arizona State a week ago, but found a way to gut out a 14-9 road win despite getting out-yarded for the third consecutive week, this time finishing on the wrong end of a 347-258 discrepancy. True freshman QB Matt Barkley (7-for-22, 112 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was a non-factor, and the Trojans fell well short of covering as a 10½-point road favorite, their fourth straight non-cover and their seventh ATS setback in the last eight games.
In conference action, the Cardinal are 5-2 SU and ATS and USC is 4-2 SU and 1-5 ATS, and both trail Oregon (5-1).
Last year at Stanford, these teams were tied at 17 late in the third quarter before USC’s offense caught fire, scoring four TDs in the next 16 minutes to take a 45-17 lead. However, the Cardinal got an 18-yard TD pass on the final play of the game to trim the loss to 45-23 and get the cover as a 24-point home underdog. Stanford has now cashed in four of the last five and seven of the last 10 meetings with USC (all as an underdog), going 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to USC. That includes a 24-23 victory as a 41-point underdog in its last visit to the L.A. Coliseum – the biggest upset in college football history and one that ended USC’s 35-game home winning streak.
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Going back to the middle of the 2007 season, Stanford has lost 11 of its last 13 road games, going 3-10 ATS (including 1-3 SU and ATS this year). During this stretch, the Cardinal are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS when visiting Pac-10 foes and 2-8 ATS as a road underdog. On the bright side, Stanford carries ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-3 overall in conference, 4-1 in November and 7-3 against winning teams.
USC is now 3-10 ATS in its last 13 regular-season games, and the Trojans are in additional ATS funks of 1-8 in Pac-10 play, 1-4 against winning teams, 1-5 both after a SU win and an ATS setback and 0-4 when laying more than 10 points. However, they have covered in 33 of 49 home games, and they’re now 28-0 in November under coach Pete Carroll (21-6 ATS in lined games).
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The under is 43-21-1 in Stanford’s last 65 Pac-10 games, but otherwise it is on “over” runs of 8-3-1 on the road, 10-2 as an underdog, 7-1-1 as a road pup and 5-0 in November. USC snapped a four-game “over” streak last week at Arizona State and is now on “under” stretches of 22-10-1 overall, 12-4-1 at home, 26-12-1 as a favorite, 17-5-1 as a home chalk and 34-16-2 in league games. Finally, 10 of the last 13 meetings in this rivalry have gone over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD
Tennessee (5-4, 6-3 ATS) at Ole Miss (6-3, 4-3 ATS)
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The Volunteers are seeking their 13th straight win over SEC rival Ole Miss when the two clash inside Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss.
Tennessee is coming off two straight wins, including Saturday’s 56-28 drubbing of Memphis in Knoxville, cashing as a 25½-point chalk. QB Jonathan Crompton leads the SEC in touchdown passes with 21, including five last week against Memphis. In his last five games, Crompton has completed 60 percent of his throws for 1,297 yards, 14 TDs and just two INTs. The Vols have won three of four and four of six, and they enter this game on a 4-0 ATS run.
Ole Miss scored a 38-14 win over Northern Arizona in a non-lined game a week ago in Oxford. The Rebels are 3-1 SU and ATS at home this season, but just 3-3 SU and ATS in SEC play. The winner has covered the spread in 13 straight lined games for Ole Miss. Rebels’ QB Jevan Snead has had an up-and-down season, completing 52 percent of his throws for 1,850 yards with 17 TDs and 13 INTs.
Tennessee has rattled off 12 straight wins (6-6 ATS) over the Rebels in this series but it’s Mississippi that has the 6-1 ATS edge dating back to 1989, including cashing in each of the last three as a double-digit underdog. Last time these two met was in 2005 when the Vols scored a 27-10 victory in Oxford but failed to cash as a 21-point favorite.
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In addition to cashing in four straight overall, Tennessee is on ATS runs of 5-1 on the road, 6-1 in SEC action, 6-1-1 as a road ‘dog and 18-7-2 on the road against teams with winning home records. Ole Miss also is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 9-3 overall, 5-1 at home, 7-2 as a favorite, 5-0 as a home chalk, 7-0-1 in November and 8-1 following a non-cover.
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It’s been nothing but “unders” lately for the Vols, including 20-7-1 overall, 18-7-1 in SEC games, 12-3-1 against teams with winning records, 9-1 as an underdog, 6-0 on the road, 7-0 as a road ‘dog and 9-2-1 in November. The “under” has also been the play lately for the Rebels, including 4-2 overall in lined action, 3-1 at home and 38-18 in SEC games. Finally, the under easily cashed in the previous two head-to-head meetings this decade.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Nebraska (6-3 SU and ATS) at Kansas (5-4, 2-6 ATS)
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The Cornhuskers will try to make it three straight wins when they travel to Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Kan., to take on the struggling Jayhawks in a Big 12 matchup.
Nebraska shut down Oklahoma’s vaunted offense a week ago, allowing just three points in a 10-3 victory, cashing as a 4½-point home underdog. Prior to that, the Huskers went to Baylor and got a 20-10 road win, but came up short as 13½-point favorites. Nebraska ranks second in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 10.3 points a game, and 11th in total defense, yielding just 274 yards per contest.
Offensively, neither junior Zac Lee nor freshman Cody Green has established himself as the clear-cut starter at quarterback. As a result, Nebraska is averaging just 12.3 points and 271.7 total yards per game in its last three contests.
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Kansas has lost four straight games, all in conference, while going 0-6 ATS since late September. Last Saturday, the Jayhawks went to rival Kansas State and fell 17-10 as a 1½-point favorite, getting outrushed 266-60. QB Todd Reesing is having a solid year, completing 64.3 percent of his throws for 2,625 yards, 17 TDs and eight INTs, but in his last three games, he’s averaged just 215.3 passing ypg with two TDs and four INTs. In those three games, the Jayhawks produced just 44 points total after scoring 30 or more in their previous seven games going back to the end of last season.
Despite holding K-State to 17 points last week, Kansas’ defense also has been an issue, yielding an average of 32 ppg during the team’s 0-6 ATS slide.
The home team has won five straight in this series (3-2 ATS) but Kansas has gotten the cash in four of the last five. Nebraska scored a 45-35 home win last season and cashed as a 1½-point favorite.
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The ‘Huskers are on ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 5-2 on the road, 3-1 after a spread-cover and 6-2 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Kansas is on ATS slides of 0-6 overall, 0-5 in Big 12 games, 1-5 as an underdog and 7-19 as a home pup.
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Nebraska has topped the total in 23 of 31 November games, but otherwise it is on “under” streaks of 10-4 on the road, 5-0 in conference matchups, 4-0 as a favorite and 6-0 following a straight-up win. Kansas is on “over” runs of 11-4 in November games, 4-1 at home and 4-1 at home against teams with winning road records. Finally, the over has been the play in each of the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA and OVER
Notre Dame (6-3, 2-7 ATS) at (8) Pittsburgh (8-1, 6-2 ATS)
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Pitt looks for its sixth straight victory as it takes a break from Big East Conference play and entertains the Fighting Irish at Heinz Field.
Notre Dame comes limping into this showdown after losing at home to Navy 23-21 last Saturday, falling as a 12-point home chalk. The Irish wrapped up a five-game homestand at 3-2 SU (1-4 ATS) with the loss to the Middies. Offense hasn’t been a problem for the Irish as QB Jimmy Clausen (career-high 452 yards last week) is the third-rated passer in the nation with WRs Michael Floyd (124.8 yards per game) and Golden Tate (117.7 ypg) third and fourth in the nation, respectively, in receiving yards. Although the defense has been better lately, giving up 17.7 points and 319.7 total yards per game the last three weeks, the Irish have struggled to get stops on the road, where they surrender per-game averages of 29.5 points and 396.5 total yards.
Pitt’s defense ranks tops in the nation with 39 sacks, and the Panthers have won their last five games – all against Big East opponents – by an average of 17.8 points. In last week’s 37-10 rout of Syracuse as a 21-point home favorite, Pitt racked up 481 yards of offense. The Panthers have scored at least 24 points in every game this season, averaging 34.6 points and 187 rushing yards per contest. Additionally, QB Bill Stull is fifth nationally in pass efficiency (161.6) as he’s thrown for 1,879 yards and 17 TDs against just four INTs.
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These teams have alternated wins and losses in each of the last four meetings dating to 2003, with the road team coming out on top each time (4-0 ATS). Pitt went to South Bend and scored a 36-33 overtime win last season as a four-point road ‘dog.
Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes with Pitt, but overall it is on ATS slides of 1-7 overall, 1-6 against Big East teams, 1-5 in November games and 1-5 after a non-cover. Conversely, the Panthers carry nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 4-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 10-2 on grass, 9-4 against winning teams and 4-1 as a home chalk.
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For the Irish, the “under” is on streaks of 12-5 as an underdog, 23-8-1 as a road ‘dog, 4-0 in November, 12-3 on the road and 5-2 after a straight-up loss. Pitt has stayed “under” the posted number in four of five overall, eight of 10 as a home chalk, five of six at home and five of seven after a spread-cover.
Finally, the last three clashes between these two have soared over the posted price, with combined totals of 79, 63 and 69.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
(18) Arizona (6-2, 4-3 ATS) at California (6-3, 3-5 ATS)
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Arizona, which controls its own destiny for its first-ever Pac-10 title, makes the trek north to Memorial Stadium in Berkeley for meeting with the Golden Bears.
The Wildcats ran their SU and ATS winning streak to three in a row (all at home) with last Saturday’s 48-7 rout of Washington State, scoring on their first seven possessions and easily covering as a 32-point favorite. Arizona has outgained its last two opponents (UCLA and Washington State) by respective margins of 245 and 283 yards, and the Wildcat offense has generated 188 points in the last five games (37.6 ppg) – all in Pac-10 play – going 4-1 SU and ATS. They trail first-place Oregon by one-half game in the league standings.
Arizona hits the road for the first time since Oct. 10, when it dominated Washington (481-256 yardage advantage) but suffered a bizarre 36-33 loss as a four-point road favorite when the Huskies scored the game-winning points on a fluke interception return. Mike Stoops team has played just three road games, going 1-2 SU and ATS while giving up an average of 31.7 ppg.
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Cal is coming off last Saturday’s 31-14 loss to Oregon State as a seven-point home favorite, ending a three-game SU winning streak and extending a 1-5 ATS slump (all in Pac-10 action). The Bears suffered a huge scare when star RB Jahvid Best flipped into the end zone on a second-quarter touchdown run and landed awkwardly. He was carried off on a stretcher and diagnosed with a concussion, and he will not play today. The Bears never recovered from Best’s departure and got outgained 436-239 while holding the ball for less than 24 minutes. Cal has scored 20 points total in its three losses while averaging 43.8 ppg in its six wins.
These teams have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses the last four years, with the home team going 4-0 SU and ATS. Last year in the desert, the Wildcats erased a 10-point halftime deficit, scoring four third-quarter touchdowns en route to a 42-27 victory as a 2½-point home underdog. However, Cal has dominated Arizona in the last three meetings in Berkeley, winning 42-14, 28-0 and 45-27, easily covering as a double-digit favorite in all three. The SU winner has cashed eight straight in this rivalry, and the Bears have been favored in each of the last six clashes. Finally, the ‘dog has gotten the money in 15 of the last 21 series meetings.
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Going back to last year, the Wildcats are on ATS runs of 5-1 in conference, 7-2 as an underdog, 11-4 as a ‘dog of three points or less and 8-3 against winning teams, but they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after a win of more than 20 points. In addition to failing to cover in five of six overall (all against Pac-10 opponents), Cal is in pointspread ruts of 1-4 as a favorite, 3-13 as a favorite of three points or less and 3-8 in November, but the Bears are still on positive ATS upticks of 9-4 at home, 9-3 as a home favorite and 4-0-1 when coming off a double-digit home loss.
The over is on stretches of 5-0 for Arizona on the road, 4-1 for Arizona as an underdog (all on the road), 5-0 for Arizona on artificial turf and 4-2 for Cal as a home favorite. On the flip side, the under is 10-2 in Arizona’s last 12 as an underdog of three points or less, 11-4 in the Bears’ last 15 in November and 4-1 in the Bears’ last five against winning teams. As for this rivalry, the last two meetings went way over the total with scores of 45-27 and 42-27.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
(1) Florida (9-0, 4-4 ATS) at South Carolina (6-4, 5-4 ATS)
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The annual Steve Spurrier vs. Florida showdown takes place at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, S.C., as South Carolina looks to snap its two-game slide and the Gators’ NCAA-best 19-game winning streak in an SEC East battle.
Florida prepped for this contest with a 27-3 rout of Vanderbilt last week, which followed a 41-17 destruction of Georgia two weeks ago, a pair of victories that gave Urban Meyer’s squad another SEC East championship. However, the Gators never threatened to cover as a 35-point home favorite against the Commodores, falling to 1-3 ATS in the last four games. Florida, which outgained Vanderbilt 375-199 last week, has had the yardage edge in each of its last 15 games, including outgaining 12 opponents by more than 100 yards.
Florida is still 13-4 ATS in lined action during its 19-game winning streak, with 17 of those wins being double-digit blowouts. Also, the Gators’ defense has held all 19 opponents to 21 points or less, and this year, they’re surrendering just 9.7 ppg and 192.7 total ypg on the road.
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South Carolina is coming off consecutive ugly SEC road losses to Tennessee (31-13 as a six-point underdog) and Arkansas (33-16 as a 7½-point pup). The Gamecocks, who started the season 5-1, have lost three of their last four, and they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five lined outings. Spurrier’s troops are 5-0 at home (2-2 ATS), averaging 26.8 points and 394 total yards per game while yielding 15.2 points and 302.8 ypg.
Since South Carolina joined the SEC in 1996, Florida has won 12 of 13 meetings (7-6 ATS). The Gators survived a scare in 2006 at home, getting a blocked field goal as time expired to preserve a 17-16 win as a 13-point favorite. However, the Florida has humiliated the Gamecocks the last two years, winning 51-31 as a seven-point road chalk in 2007 and 56-6 as a 21-point home favorite in 2008, the worst loss suffered by a Spurrier-coached team.
In last year’s rout of South Carolina, the Gators racked up 519 total yards (346 rushing) and allowed 173 total yards (53 rushing), while QB Tim Tebow went 13-for-20 for 173 yards with two TDs through the air and added 39 yards and one score on the ground. Tebow has accounted for 10 touchdowns (six rushing, four passing) and 636 yards (477 passing, 159 rushing) in the last two meetings.
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Despite failing to get the money in three of the last four weeks, the Gators still sport incredible ATS runs of 13-4 overall (all as a favorite), 11-1 on the road, 10-1 as a road chalk, 13-5 in SEC play, 19-7 against teams with a winning record, 6-1 after a non-cover, 8-1 in November, and 12-0 when playing on the road against an opponent that has a winning home record. Meanwhile, South Carolina has covered in five of its last six as an underdog of more than 10 points, but is just 1-4 ATS in its last five SEC games and 4-7-1 ATS as a home pup under Spurrier.
Florida’s stout defense has led to a series of “under” streaks that include 6-1 overall (as a favorite), 4-0 on the highway (all as a favorite), 7-1 in conference and 5-1 against winning teams. The under is also 9-3 in the Gamecocks’ last 12 lined home games, 5-2 in their last seven as an underdog and 5-0 in their last five as a home pup. However, four of the last five in this rivalry have gone over the total, and the over is 4-1 in the Gators’ last five in November 7-3 in South Carolina’s last 10 in this month.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
(3) Alabama (9-0, 6-3 ATS) at Mississippi State (4-5, 5-3 ATS)
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Having already punched its ticket to next month’s SEC Championship Game and rematch with top-ranked Florida, Alabama now will try to avoid a letdown when it travels to Starkville, Miss., for a divisional matchup against the Bulldogs.
Alabama rallied from deficits of 7-0 and 15-10 last week against LSU, scoring the final 14 points to not only pull out a 24-15 victory but also cover as a 7½-point home favorite, ending a two-game ATS slide. The Crimson Tide dominated the ninth-ranked Tigers in the boxscore with a 452-253 total yardage advantage, and after three straight sub-par games, QB Greg McElroy came up big, going 19-for-34 for 276 yards with two TDs and one INT.
The Crimson Tide have now won 21 consecutive regular-season games, with seven of the nine this season being double-digit routs. Nick Saban’s defense, ranked among the best in the nation, has held its last eight opponents to 20 points or less, with five of the last seven scoring 10 or less.
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Mississippi State went to Kentucky as a 3½-point underdog on Oct. 31 and beat the Wildcats 31-24, rolling up 493 total yards and yielding just 308. The Bulldogs are just 2-4 SU in their last six games (1-2 in SEC play), but they’ve now covered three straight overall and four straight SEC contests (all as an underdog).
Both teams have strong rushing attacks, with Mississippi State averaging 219.2 ypg on the ground (4.9 per carry) and Alabama netting 213 rushing ypg (5.2 per carry). The difference is on defense, where the Bulldogs give up 147.4 rushing ypg (3.8 per carry), while the Crimson Tide hold opponents to 68.2 rushing ypg and 2.3 ypc, both figures ranking second in the nation behind Texas.
Alabama ended a two-game SU and ATS losing streak to Mississippi State last year, pounding out a 32-7 home win as a 21-point chalk. The Tide are 6-2 SU in the last eight meetings, but the Bulldogs have covered in seven of the last nine and 10 of the last 14. Also, the home team is on a 7-3 SU roll in this rivalry, covering the last two to end a 6-0 ATS run by the visitor.
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The Crimson Tide are riding positive pointspread trends of 5-2 overall, 7-1 on the road, 11-4 as a favorite, 5-0 as a road chalk, 8-3 in SEC play and 5-0 in November. Mississippi State has failed to cash in five of its last six in November, but is otherwise on ATS hot streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in SEC play, 7-1 as an underdog and 4-1 as a home pup.
Alabama’s “under” runs include 7-2 in SEC action, 20-7 against losing teams and 32-11-1 as a favorite of more than 10 points, while the under is 4-1 in the Bulldogs’ last five in November and 4-0 in their last four after a bye. Finally, eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have stayed low, including the last four in Starkville.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI STATE and UNDER
(12) Miami (Fla.) (7-2, 5-3 ATS) at North Carolina (6-3, 3-4 ATS)
The Hurricanes shoot for their third straight win as they try to keep pace with Georgia Tech in the ACC Coastal Division when they head to Tobacco Road for a divisional clash with North Carolina.
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Miami destroyed Virginia 52-17 as a 14-point home favorite last week, finishing with 515 total yards (268 rushing) while allowing just 149 total yards (74 rushing). The Hurricanes, who had a season high for points, outscored the Cavaliers 28-0 in the second half after scoring the final 14 points the previous week in a come-from-behind 28-27 win at Wake Forest. The offense is rolling, putting up 33 points or more in five of nine games and averaging 38.4 ppg in the last five.
The Tar Heels followed up a difficult 30-27 home loss to Florida State with consecutive ACC wins over Virginia Tech (20-17 as a 14½-point road underdog) and Duke (19-6 as a 10-point home favorite. Take away losses to Florida State and Georgia Tech (24-7), and the Tar Heels have limited their other seven opponents to 17 points or less, giving up an average of 12 ppg.
The SU winner has cashed in each of North Carolina’s last six lined games and seven of Miami’s last eight lined outings.
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Miami is 4-2 (3-3 ATS) in the ACC, good for second place in the Coastal Division, 1½ games behind Georgia Tech, while the Tar Heels are tied for last at 2-3 SU and ATS in conference play.
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the ‘Canes, including scoring outright upsets the past two seasons (33-27 as a seven-point home underdog in 2007; 28-24 as a 7½-point road pup in 2008). In last year’s contest in South Beach, the Tar Heels rallied from a 14-point deficit, getting a game-winning TD pass with 46 seconds left. UNC has been the underdog in all five meetings since Miami joined the ACC in 2004.
The ‘Canes are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning record, but otherwise they’re in pointspread slumps of 9-22-1 as a favorite, 4-10 as a road favorite, 10-25 after a spread-cover and 1-8 after a SU victory of more than 20 points. UNC carries positive ATS trends of 8-3 as an underdog (5-1 last six), 6-0 as a home underdog, 10-3 as a pup of three points or less and 7-0 at home against opponents with a winning road record.
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The over is 4-1 in the five meetings this decade between these schools. Additionally, the over is on stretches of 3-0 for Miami overall, 6-2 for Miami in ACC action, 5-2 for Miami as a road favorite, 8-3 for Carolina at home and 5-2 for Carolina as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
Texas Tech (6-3, 5-3 ATS) at (17) Oklahoma State (7-2, 4-3-1 ATS)
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Oklahoma State looks to keep its slim Big 12 South title hopes alive when it welcomes the Red Raiders to Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater.
Texas Tech bounced back from a stunning 22-point home loss to Texas A&M as a 22-point home favorite with last week’s 42-21 rout of Kansas as a 6½-point home chalk. The Red Raiders have won four of their last five games, going 3-1 ATS in the last four. Mike Leach’s squad lost its first two road games (34-24 at Texas; 28-28 at Houston) before knocking off Nebraska 31-10 as a 10½-point underdog in its most recent roadie on Oct. 17. Going back to last year, this marks Texas Tech’s sixth straight road game against a ranked opponent, and it is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in the last five.
Oklahoma State took a week off after a humiliating 41-14 loss to Texas on Halloween, then came back last week and drubbed Iowa State 34-8 as a 7½-point road chalk. RB Keith Toston piled up 206 rushing yards and three TDs for the Cowboys, who ended with a 473-242 total-offense advantage, and the defense picked off three passes. Oklahoma sits firmly in second place in the Big 12 South standings, but a game behind Texas.
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The home team has won seven straight meetings in this rivalry (5-2 ATS) and nine of the last 10 (7-3 ATS). Last year, the Red Raiders pounded Oklahoma State 56-20 as a 3½-point home chalk, gaining 629 yards, including 516 through the air. The previous three meetings were decided by 7, 6 and 4 points. Texas Tech has covered in 11 of the last 15 against the Cowboys, and the underdog is 4-2 ATS in the last six battles.
Texas Tech is on ATS runs of 4-1 as an underdog, 4-1 in Big 12 action, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a SU win, but it has failed to cover in seven straight games as a road underdog of 3½ to 10 points. The Cowboys are 4-7-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall and they’ve failed to cover in five of their last seven at home and seven of 10 in November, but otherwise OSU is on ATS tears of 36-16-2 as a favorite, 11-4 as a home chalk and 12-4-2 in November home games.
The over/under is split in Texas Tech’s eight lined games this year, alternating in the last four contests, but the Red Raiders have stayed low in all three road games. Meanwhile, the over is 36-17 in Oklahoma State’s last 53 games overall and 19-9 in its last 28 in November, and the last three in this series have gone over the posted price following a three-year “under” run.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Sports Insights
Michigan State vs. Purdue
Coming off two straight losses, Michigan State got back on track last week, beating up on Western Michigan 49-14. Quarterback Kirk Cousins carved up the Broncos' secondary, racking up 353 yards through the air on only 25 attempts. After starting the season 1-5, Purdue has won three of their last four games, including a 12-point victory over Ohio State and last week's 38-36 thriller against Michigan in Ann Arbor.
This game opened as a pick at CRIS and the public is backing Michigan State, who are currently receiving 63% of spread bets. This public "Spartan-love" has pushed Michigan State up to a 3-point favorite at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights. This line movement has added value to Purdue and sharp money has not hesitated to jump behind the Boilermakers. SportsInsights has triggered three positive Smart Money Plays on Purdue, including one each at Cata/VegasVic (+13.74 units) and CRIS (+12.32 units), two of our top three sportsbooks for NCAA Smart Money plays this season. In this match-up, we'll go against the public and take the home underdog being back by Smart Money.
Purdue +3
Missouri vs. Kansas State
Missouri beat up on non-conference opponents early in the season, jumping out to a 4-0 record. However, the Tigers have struggled lately, losing four of their first five conference games heading into this week's showdown with the Big 12 North leader, Kansas State. The Wildcats, who have been a bit of a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team this season, played well last week, shutting down in-state rival Kansas and quarterback Todd Reesing in K-State's 17-10 win.
Kansas State opened as a 2.5-point home-favorite at Pinnacle and and are a huge public favorite, garnering 71% of spread bets, 78% of moneyline bets and 65% of parlay bets. With these betting percentages, Kansas State should have grown to a bigger favorite, yet the line has dropped 3.5 points at Pinnacle, making Missouri a 1-point favorite. This considerable reverse-line movement has triggering nine, yes nine, positive Smart Money Plays, including one each at Cata/VegasVic (+13.74 units) and Matchbook (+13.47 units), and two positive Steam Moves on Missouri. Most sportsbooks currently have Missouri as a 1-point favorite, but there are still a few out there who have this game as a pick. As we learned last week in the Tulsa game, one extra point can be huge, so do some line-shopping and grab the best number possible.
Missouri - pk
Arizona vs. California
In a sport where very few things are certain, there are two things that we know for sure each and every week. First, someone will make a joke about Charlie Weis, and second, Washington State will get hammered. Last week's destruction of Washington State happened to come at the hands of Arizona, who effortlessly ran through a porous defensive line in a laughable 48-7 beat-down of the Cougars. As good as Saturday was for Arizona, it was equally as bad for California, who not only fell to Oregon State by 17 points, but also lost Jahvid Best indefinitely after the star running back suffered a scary concussion and had to be carted off the field.
Arizona opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Olympic and are currently receiving 69% of spread bets, 82% of moneyline bets and 80% of parlay bets. Even though the Wildcats are a solid public favorite, the line has dropped a ridiculous 5.5 points at Olympic. This is the most drastic reverse-line movement Marketwatch has seen all season, and to no surprise, this game lit up SportsInsights' Betting Systems like a Christmas tree. Six positive Smart Money Plays, including one from Matchbook (+13.47 units), and a Steam Move from ThePig (+12.9 units) have been triggered on California. We like the reverse-line movement and plethora of positive moves on this game, so we'll give the three and take California at home.
California -3
Lucky Day Sports
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
It's really hard to know for sure how good this Pittsburgh team is. I mean, they've played a lot of o.k. teams, but really haven't had that signature win. That will change with the gauntlet they have remaining on the schedule, but that's no help to us tonight. However, I do think I have found a reason to back the Irish with the points in this one tonight. Looking at the Panthers schedule, they have faced only one solid QB all season, and that was Russell Wilson from NC State, who lit them up for 322 yards and 4 TDs. I really think that is a big deal, because no matter what Stull, Lewis and company do to Notre Dame's awful defense, I think Clausen, Tate, and Floyd will match, and maybe even then some. The Irish have to know they are playing for Charlie Weiss's job for the rest of the season, which should add motivation as well. Take Notre Dame for the road cover.
Take Notre Dame +7
Jimmy Moore
Auburn @ Georgia
Pick: Auburn +4.5
The Bulldogs defense has been absolutely horrible all season long and now they have to take on the Tigers offense that has been strong all year. Georgia is only 2-6 ATS this season and they have only covered 1 of their last 10 games as home favorites. Take the points with Auburn to get a win in this national TV game.
Jimmy Boyd
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Iowa vs. Ohio State
Play: Iowa +16.5
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Iowa may be without starting QB Ricky Stanzi, but I expect the Hawkeyes to keep this one within the number as they leave it all out on the field with a Big Ten title on the line. Without Stanzi, I expect Iowa to take a very conservative offensive approach. Iowa is very confident in the ability of its defense to keep it in games and it will lean heavily on that defense here. Buckeyes QB Tyrelle Pryor is certainly not immune to turnovers and Iowa has one of the most opportunistic defenses in the country. Coach Tressel has been known to play it close to the vest in big games and I expect no different here with the way Pryor has struggled this season. Lastly, Iowa is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since the beginning of last season. The Hawks aren't at full strength but coach Ferentz will have them ready to play and I like them to keep this one much closer than the experts are figuring.
Steve Merril
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UAB vs. Memphis
Play: UAB -1.5
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UAB is a veteran team that returned 18 starters this season, including all 11 offensive starters, and the Blazers should have success moving the ball today against a bad Memphis defense. UAB has a dominating rushing attack that is averaging 241 rushing yards per game and a fantastic 6.4 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 168 yards and 4.6 ypr). The Blazers should have continued success against a bad Memphis rush defense that permits 191 yards per game on the ground and 4.8 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 156 yards and 4.3 yrp). UAB’s main weakness this season has been a poor pass defense that permits 64.4% completions and 8.5 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 58.0% and 7.1 ypp), but it is doubtful that a below average Memphis passing offense can take advantage. Memphis is averaging only 6.5 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that allow 7.0 ypp).
Rob Vinciletti
North Texas vs. Florida Intl
Play: North Texas +3
These club plays have been cashing at a high rate of late. What we want to do in this game is play against certain home favorites of less than 5 that are off road dog losses both straight up and against the spread if our tem is off a home loss. This system has cashed 32 of 42 times since 1980. Florida International is off a blowout road loss and qualifies as our go against team here tonight. In addition to the system we note that North Texas has Home loss revenge from last years game where they had a 428-347 yardage advantage. They lost that game due 4 costly turnovers that FIU. was able to convert into points. Look for North Texas to get their revenge tonight.
BIG AL
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Arizona Wildcats at California
Prediction: California
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On the surface, this game might look like an easy Arizona win. After all, the Wildcats have won and covered three straight games, and are in control of their own destiny in the Rose Bowl race. California has dropped five of its last six games ATS, including its last three. And last week, Cal was drilled at home by Oregon St by a 31-14 count, and the Bears were favored by 6.5 in that game. Cal lost its best running back -- Jahvid Best -- to injury against Oregon St, yet Cal finds itself installed as a 3-point favorite vs. Arizona. So, one would be excused if he felt that Arizona was a good wager as the road underdog here. But, as ESPN talking head Lee Corso might say, "Not so fast, my friend." Consider that, since 1980, home or neutral-sited teams are a solid 47-25 ATS off three straight ATS losses, if their foe is off three straight ATS wins, and the pointspread is less than 11 points. And, if our play-on team lost to a conference foe its previous game, then our 47-25 ATS system zooms to a spectacular 36-11 ATS since 1980. Take California.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Tennessee +6
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Tennessee has given Florida and Alabama all they wanted and more, earning covers in each game by keeping the score easily within the number. The Vols continue to improve each week and I look for them to take Ole Miss right down to the wire with a chance to pull off the upset. I don't read much into Tennessee's recent off the field issues as those players were not impact guys for this team. Ole Miss has been dealt the bigger blow with defensive end Greg Hardy out after breaking his wrist last week. Tennessee's defense will keep it in this game so if the offense continues to show improvement, the Vols just might be able to pull off the upset. The Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Take the points.
Mitch Wilson
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Iowa vs. Ohio State
Play: Iowa +17
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Control of their own destiny in the race for the Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl berth are in the balance as the Ohio State Buckeyes host the Iowa Hawkeyes in Columbus.
It was a monster win in a huge game for the Buckeyes as they went into Happy Valley and knocked off Penn State in convincing fashion. Ohio State dominated the Nittany Lions and never gave them a chance to get into the game as their defense shout down the Penn State offense and their offense took over in the second half. It was not only the biggest win of young Terrelle Pryor's career but it was redemption for him as many were already writing him off as a disappointment and a bust. Can Pryor put together two big wins in a row will be the next big question he will need to answer. Though Pryor's numbers were unspectacular, they were more than good enough as two of his eight completions went for touchdowns and he didn't make a turnover. The defense allowed PSU to gain just over 200 total yards in the entire game. It will take another big effort from Pryor and the entire Buckeye team if they want to keep the momentum going.
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Iowa lost for the first time last week and while it was an upset given the way Iowa had been playing and winning up until that point, I don't think anyone can call Iowa's season disappointing. The Hawkeyes QB Ricky Stanzi went down in the game and there was no miracle comeback. If there is a silver lining, it's that Iowa's winning ways have been a product of their defense and they remain in tact for this one. Though James Vanderberg is no Stanzi, at least he will get a full week of practice with the first unit and that should be a pretty big help to him and the entire unit as opposed to just being thrown into action as he was unexpectedly a week ago.
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Ohio State has covered five in a row at home and seven in a row against a team with a winning record. Iowa is 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 road games and 9-2 against the spread when playing teams with a winning record.
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This is just way too many points in a game Iowa can win outright.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Texas/Baylor UNDER 52.5
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Baylor is on a 10-2 UNDER run in home games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg on the season, on a 6-0 UNDER run after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons, and on an 8-0 UNDER run in home games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. With as good as Texas' defense has been this season, allowing only 11.0 ppg, I can't see Baylor putting much of anything on the scoreboard, keeping this one UNDER the number.
Joseph D'Amico
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Nebraska vs. Kansas
Play: Nebraska -4
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The Husker's come into this game winning 2 straight while turnovers and sacks have led to the Jayhawk's 4 game losing streak. Two of those games were to Colorado and Kansas State. Certainly two teams that are considered inferior squads. Nebraska's offense has struggled but their "D" is 2nd in the nation, allowing just 10.3 PPG and are a sack machine. The Cornhusker's defense will shut down the already sputtering offense of the Jayhawk's. The favorite is 6-2 ATS their last 8. The Husker's are 7-3 ATS their last 10, 5-2 ATS their last 7 on the road, 6-2 ATS their last 8 vs. teams with a winning record. The Jayhawk's are 0-6 ATS their last 6 overall, 0-5 ATS their last 5 conference games, and 0-4 ATS their last 4 games played against teams with a winning record. Nebraska rolls.
Jr Tips
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76ers at Bulls
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The Philadelphia 76ers look to rebound from another rough offensive performance and avoid their fifth loss in seven games tonight when they visit the Chicago Bulls who are playing their last home game before a long road trip. Philadelphia is scoring 98.3 points in Jordan's up-tempo Princeton offense dropping four of their last six with both wins coming against New Jersey, which is the league's only winless team at 0-9. Philadelphia trailed by as much as 26 in a 112-90 home blowout to Utah on Friday who were playing without point guard Deron Williams, who leads the team in scoring and assists.The Bulls are coming off an 99-89 loss to Toronto shooting 10 of 40 in the second half after scoring 60 first-half points.The Bulls play their final home game before a six-game trip which last until Dec. 2nd.The Bulls and Sixers split four games last season, with each team winning one in Chicago. Sixers swingman Andre Iguodala, a native of Springfield, Ill., averaged 22.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.5 assists while shooting 52.9 percent from the field in two games at the United Center and has averaged 20.0 points and shot 51.4 percent in his first seven games of the season, but was held to 10.0 points and 29.6 percent shooting in the last two.Chicago's point guard Derrick Rose averaged 19.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.5 assists while shooting 56.1 percent in four games against Philadelphia last year will get his team back on track after they just missed open shots in the second against Toronto in their last game on Wednesday. Philadelphia, who is flat out struggling is playing a back to back against a Chicago team that is well rested. This young team should bring a lot of energy tonight to get back on the wining track and should have no problem taking care of the Sixers who haven't beaten any quality opponents this season.
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TAKE BULLS -6.5
EZWINNERS
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Stanford Cardinals @ USC Trojans
Play: Stanford Cardinals +10.5
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USC is struggling. They were destroyed by Oregon two weeks ago and struggled to get by Arizona State last week. The Trojans play host to a Stanford team that is coming off of a huge win over Oregon. The Cardinals offense is clicking and that's not something that can be said about the Trojans as they only managed twelve first downs last week against the Sun Devils. The Cardinals pulled off a huge upset here before and the difference this time around is that the Cardinals expect to win. Take the points.