Jimmy Thompson
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Clemson vs. NC State
Pick: Clemson -8
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The Tigers are now in position to play in the ACC Championship Game and they are playing there best football at the right time. NC State has given up at least 30+ points to there last 6 opponents and they'll do it again today against the explosive Tigers. CJ Spiller and Jacoby Ford will be running free all day long as the Tigers drill NC State in Raleigh. Tigers win 41-20!
Jimmy Moore
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Auburn @ Georgia
Pick: Auburn +4.5
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The Bulldogs defense has been absolutely horrible all season long and now they have to take on the Tigers offense that has been strong all year. Georgia is only 2-6 ATS this season and they have only covered 1 of their last 10 games as home favorites. Take the points with Auburn to get a win in this national TV game.
Brian Graves
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Arizona St. vs. Oregon
Pick: Oregon -18
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The Ducks still have the inside to the Rose Bowl but any hopes of something were dashed last week by Stanford. The good news for Oregon is that they return home to one of the toughest places to play in the country. The same place where they have beaten USC and Cal by a combined score of 89-23! Arizona St. will not present the problems that Stanford did last week on offense so this could be one of those games where Oregon just dominates from the opening kickoff. ASU lost to both Cal and USC at there place so they are overmatched against the Ducks and don't be surprised if Blount does something big tonight for the Ducks. Oregon wins in a walkaway 45-13!
Bob Balfe
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USC -10.5 over Stanford
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USC has lost only once in the last 48 games at home. That one loss was to this Stanford team and there are a lot of players on the Trojans that still remember that. Both teams have young QB's who play well above their age and experience. I really do like what Stanford has done, but I do not think they are ready to take control of the PAC 10 especially in the Trojans' back yard. USC should get out to an early lead and pull away by halftime. Look for the Cardinals to be brought back down to reality tonight. Take USC.
John Taylor
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Michigan State vs. Purdue
Play: Over 53
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Michigan State comes into this game after putting a beat down on Western Michigan. They put up 49 points against them. They are facing a team today that is ranked in the top 3rd in college football offensively. In last weeks game Purdue faced off against Michigan, in that game there was a total of 72 points scored. Expect lots of scoring in this one!
Smooth44
TOP PLAY: NC STATE +8
TOP PLAY: NC STATE MONEYLINE +255
After their upset win over Pittsburgh NCST dropped 4 straight before beating Maryland last week. That win snapped their losing streak but also moved NCST to a PERFECT 8-0 ATS in November L2 seasons!! Today they play host to a Clemson team that is coming off a huge rivalry win over Florida State. Despite their 4-5 mark we can not over look what QB Russell Wilson has done this season completing more than 60 percent of his passes for nearly 2,400 yards and 24 TDs against just 9 picks!! Look for Wilson to enjoy success today against a Tigers defense that has struggled on the road giving up more than 30 points per game!! Clemson has a history of struggling on the road and this season is no different. In their 3 road games this year Clemson is 2-1 but all 3 games were decided by exactly 3 points!! Look for Clemson to enter this game feeling a little too good after that win last win over FSU and for NCST to shock them!! It is worth noting Clemson is just 1-4 ATS L5 as a road fave while NCST is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS L5 as a home dog and a PERFECT 6-0 ATS L6 after losing 4 of their L5 games!! PREDICTION: NC STATE 30 CLEMSON 27
TOP PLAY: TEXAS -23 -120
It will probably be a long time before you see me lay 23 points again but it is tough for me to ignore this one. Baylor is coming off a SU win over Mizzou as a double digit dog and kids at this level fail miserably in this spot!! Texas has owned this squad and as much as I believe Texas is severely over-rated there is little reason to think they won’t steamroll the Bears today!! Take the over-rated Longhorns over another weak opponent!! It is worth noting that Baylor is 4-12 ATS L16 as a home dog including 3-7 ATS L10 as a home dog of 10.5 points or more and are 5-16 ATS L21 home games versus a team with a winning road record!! PREDICTION: TEXAS 45 BAYLOR 10
TOP PLAY: KANSAS +4
TOP PLAY: KANSAS MONEYLINE +165
This is a perfect spot for Kansas to rebound off their 4 straight losses as they catch Nebraska coming off a huge upset win over Oklahoma. I backed Nebraska in that win last week but today will gladly go against them!! Despite the Huskers win last week it is important to note they were out-gained by almost 150 yards!! Their offense was non-existent and it was their defense that actually won the game. Today, however, not even their defense can win this one!! Kansas possesses too many weapons offensively and will ultimately wear down the Huskers defense. Defensively, the one thing Kansas does well is defend the run and unfortunately for the Huskers that’s all they can do – or try to do!! The simple goal for Kansas today – get the lead!! If they do it’s lights out for Nebraska!! It is important to note that Kansas qualifies for an incredibly strong system involving certain home teams playing on revenge; these teams have cashed almost 80% of the time over the long haul!! PREDICTION: KANSAS 27 NEBRASKA 10
TOP PLAY – CFB GAME OF THE WEEK: IOWA +17
TOP PLAY: IOWA MONEYLINE +570
Folks, these are the situations that Vegas gets rich on!! All the hype surrounding OSU now that Iowa’s QB went down last week with a season ending injury!! What’s funny is that oddsmakers set the opening line at 13.5 already knowing his season was done but the public quickly pounded this number to 16.5/17 and I will gladly take all of these points and more!! Here is the bottom line!! OSU is a team America loves to love and even though this offense has been very inconsistent this year the win over Penn State, a SU win as a 5.5 point dog, has people believing they are a great team – THEY ARE NOT!! Losing QB Stanzi is a blow, no doubt, but Iowa’s defense has an opportunity to shine against a team that relies heavily on the run, something they defend really well!! This will put all pressure on Pryor and he will make a few of his classic bonehead mistakes and give Iowa some short fields to work with!! Look for Iowa to keep this close throughout, AND STEAL THE WIN, through conservative play calling and ball control and look for OSU to have a classic letdown and it helps knowing they are just 2-6 ATS L8 at home against teams with winning records!! It is worth noting Iowa is 10-1 ATS L11 road games including 6-1 ATS L7 as a road dog of 10.5 points or more!! The Hawkeyes are also 9-2 ATS L11 against teams with winning records, are 25-10 ATS L35 of a SU loss and 22-6 ATS L28 after scoring 20 or fewer points!! PREDICTION: IOWA 17 OHIO STATE 13
TOP PLAY: SOUTH CAROLINA +18 -120
SC is coming off B2B tough road losses to Tennessee and Arkansas and now hosts Florida, Spurrier’s old team. We find Spurrier and his Cocks in a huge home revenge system that has cashed almost 80% of the time over the long haul. Last year Florida humiliated SC in a 56-6 rout, one of Spurrier’s worst career losses!! The Gators won by 50 as a 21 point fave in that one and now this year only opens as a 15 point fave?? I DON’T THINK SO!! Look for Spurrier’s boys to play with tremendous heart and pride and even give the Gators a scare!! PREDICTION: FLORIDA 21 SOUTH CAROLINA 17
TOP PLAY: USC -10 -120
Stanford is coming off their huge an impressive win over Oregon last week – CAN YOU SAY MAJOR LETDOWN?? And the line says it all!! Oddsmakers opened the line at 11.5 knowing the public would take the bait and they are!! But history shows that Stanford falls flat on their faces today!! The Cardinal are just 2-8 ATS L10 as a road dog including 1-4 ATS L5 as a road dog of 10.5 points or more!! The Cardinal are laso a horrible 1-7 ATS L8 on the road against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, USC is 5-1 ATS L6 at home against teams with losing records on the ROAD!! USC is over-rated but today they will look like the dominant team of year’s past again with an easy and impressive win!! PREDICTION: USC 31 STANFORD 13
TOP PLAY: MISSISSIPPISTATE +13 -120
This week MSU enters off a bye week after a huge road win before that and facing a Bama team coming off a huge home win against LSU – certain teams in this spot are an amazing 19-1 ATS since 1980!! Bama’s win last week also clinched the division title so this could be a classic letdown spot. With the Tide’s offense struggling against quality defenses averaging just 20 pts/gm over L4 it is tough to pass up the points today!! PREDICTION: ALABAMA 24 MISSISSIPPI STATE 20
TOP PLAY: UTAH +20
TOP PLAY: UTAH MONEYLINE +820
I have to admit this line is odd but I am taking the bait!! TCU is on a roll and a win here today almost guarantees a BCS bowl berth. However, don’t expect Utah to roll over and play dead!! Utah is a dangerous opponent for TCU because they possess something that a lot of TCU’s opponents didn’t – and that is BALANCE!! The Utes offensive line is big and powerful and they have RB Eddie Wise whose current streak of 100+ yard games is a school record!! They have the defense to slow TCU down and they have the playmakers to keep the Frogs’ defense on their heels!! This one comes down to execution and taking care of the ball. If the Utes can win the turnover margin they will win the game!! Utah is 5-1 SU L6 meetings and 25-7-1 L33 as a road dog. Even more impressive Utah is a PERFECT 7-0 SU when they and their opponent are both ranked in the AP Poll!! PREDICTION: UTAH 24 TCU 21
TOP PLAY: NOTRE DAME +7
TOP PLAY: NOTRE DAME MONEYLINE +220
After losing to Navy last week everyone has jumped off the Irish bandwagon but I will jump on for TODAY!! This is a series that covers 19 games and is rich in tradition. It is important to note the Panthers have only been favored 3 times during this stretch and THEY LOST ALL 3 GAMES OUTRIGHT!! As many of you know I am not a huge fan of Wannstedt and I think he simply gets out-classed at times and today will be just that!! Wannstedt is a horrible 1-6 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of 67% or higher!! When they are favored by 8 or less the Panthers are just 2-6 ATS L8!! The Irish lost to the Panthers last season in quadruple OT and will be seeking redemption for that loss!! Navy beat the Irish last week, true, but it is very possible the Irish got caught looking ahead to this showdown!! The Irish are an incredible 11-1 ATS as a road dog of 8 points or less!! The Irish also qualify for a very unique but incredibly successful system that involves certain road dogs off a SU loss to a military school; those teams are a PERFECT 12-0 ATS since 1980 when playing an opponent with a winning percentage of 70% or greater!! Additionally, Pitt qualifies for a system that supports going against certain home faves of 4 or more points who are riding current SU and ATS streaks of 3; these teams have failed miserably going a PERFECT 0-11 ATS since 1980!! PREDICTION” NOTRE DAME 31 PITTSBURGH 27
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
353 - 242 run 58 %
Free winner Stanford + 10
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Brass Balls Plays
TODAY'S FREE PICK ...
LOUISVILLE -7
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P.S.
Those two Dunkel plays I posted yesterday were
one win and one loss.
JACK JONES
Tennessee Vols +6
Take the points and Tennessee on Saturday as the Vols defense continues to impress, even with a very difficult schedule. Tennessee's average opponent scores 26.3 points per game but the Vols are allowing just 18.9 points per game and less than 300 yards per game of total offense to their opponents. Ole Miss was highly touted coming into the 2009 season, but they haven't lived up to expectations, sporting a 6-3 record overall and a 2-3 record within the SEC. Both teams have played well defensively against decent offensive units and this one should be decided by a touchdown one way or the other. I'll take the points and the Vols.
Rocketman Sports
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New Orleans Hornets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -12.5
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Chris Paul is out for this game for the Hornets. New Orleans is 4-17 ATS last 3 years as a road underdog of 6 1/2 to 12 points. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS in all games this year. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS as a favorite this year. New Orleans is allowing 106.5 points per game on the road this year. Atlanta is scoring 106.6 points per game overall and 115 points per game at home this year. Hornets are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Hornets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. Hornets are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss. Hornets are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Hornets are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog. Hornets are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog. Hornets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Hornets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Hawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference. Hawks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Hawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Hawks are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Hawks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Hawks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite. Hawks are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite. Hawks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win. Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!
Freddy Wills
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Stanford vs. USC
Play: USC -10
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Stanford is in for a huge let down here as they visit USC not only did they beat up Oregon last week at home who also beat USC, but they beat a top ranked team and now they go on the road to USC. The only loss Pete Carrol has had at home in quite some time was when he was favored by 41 points in 2007 and Stanford came in and pulled off the crazy upset. USC, and Pete Carrol will have that in mind on Saturday at home against Stanford coming off a big time win. I think all the concentration will be there for USC something that has hurt them at times this year. Stanford is not a good road team they are 1-3 away from home and the PAC-10 is just one of those conferences that pose a huge advantage when you are at home. Stanford is 8th in the Pac-10 in scoring and total defense and they will be hurt from the loss of Clinton Snyder. That gives USC a huge advantage up front and they will turn lose their backs McKnight and Bradford for a huge ground game. Stanford will face their most challenging task on offense when they face a very physical defense and I don't see how they can get out with enough plays to keep this within 2 TDS.
MTi Sports
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Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls
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The Seventysixers are 0-6 ATS (-7.3 ppg) with no rest after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field and the Bulls are 10-0 ATS (+7.2 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field. Also, Chicago is 10-0 ATS (+9.8 ppg) with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line and 5-0 ATS (+9.2 ppg) after a loss on the road in which Kirk Hinrich had more turnovers than assists. Lay the points.
Randall the Handle
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NY Rangers +1.04 over OTTAWA
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The Sens extremely hot start and solid play is a distant memory right now, as this team is becoming more fragile after every period. They have two wins over its last six games but have zero wins in regulation over that same stretch. The Sens two wins have come against Edmonton and Tampa Bay and again, they were both at home and they were both in OT. In Ottawa’s four losses over that span they failed to score more than two goals in any of them and to top it off they were whacked 5-1 in Philly in its last. That’s going to be a tough one to bounce back from because confidence is low and they’ll be facing the league’s best goaltender. The Rangers are in a bit of a funk too but they’re a veteran team and won’t affect them nearly as much. The Rangers play in a much tougher division and with that comes a much tougher schedule. The Sens are 1-4 vs teams from the Rangers Atlantic Division while the Rangers are 4-0-1 against teams from the Sens Northeast Division. That says something and it says take this very live doggie. Note the 2:00 PM start. Play: NY Rangers +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
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NASHVILLE -½ +1.15 over Montreal
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The Canadiens are playing a little better lately but its 4-2 win over the Coyotes was a little deceiving, as they only mustered up 20 shots on net. They also allowed just 20 shots on net and it might’ve been the worst hockey game of the year thus far in terms of entertainment. Now, after playing an uninspiring game the Habs will face one of the hottest teams in the league on a Saturday night that will not be featured on Hockey Night in Canada. The Habs are used to playing at home or at least in another Canadian city on Saturday night and they could be definitely get caught sleepwalking through this one in front of a Nashville crowd of about 8000 people or less with no CBC coverage. It’s way out of routine for the Habs. Besides that, they’re the second best team on the ice and they’ll be playing one of the hottest teams in the league. Nashville was won five of seven and they didn’t beat a bunch of cupcakes either. Over that stretch they have road wins in Minnesota, Chicago, Dallas, L.A. and St. Louis. They also had a 3-2 lead over the Sharkies with about seven minutes left in the game on Tuesday. The Preds are healthy, they’re solid as hell defensively, they’re winning and frankly they’re just the much better team playing what could very well be a disinterested Montreal club. Play: Nashville -½ +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
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FLORIDA -½ +1.13 over NY Islanders
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The oddmakers made the Panthers a rather hefty –1.54 on the money line and that’s because they would welcome any bets on the Islanders. The Islanders are in a very difficult spot tonight in that it’ll be its fifth game in eight days, its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-back road games after they blew a 3-0 lead in Carolina last night and eventually won in OT. They looked completely gassed in the second period and near the end of the game. Meanwhile the Panthers are about as well rested as possible. They played last Saturday and they played in Boston on Thursday. In fact, they played a very strong third period in Boston once they got their legs going and they also got back Radek Dvorek and Domenic Moore in that game and they both, especially Dvorek made a difference. The casual bettor or those that don’t do their homework could very well be tempted to take the upstart Islanders plus this pretty sweet tag but a close looks says stay far away from them in this spot. Panthers are ready to go and play with as much heart as any team in the league. Play: Florida -½ +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
Drew Gordon
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Florida at SOUTH CAROLINA +18
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Spurs Wednesday, Ball State Thursday, Warriors outright Friday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Florida/South Carolina match up.
Sometimes an ass-kicking is a good thing, and I believe that's exactly the case in today's Gators/Gamecocks match up. Everyone from the coaches on down to the water boys remembers Florida's 56-6 dismantling of this South Carolina squad last season, but this time things are different. Several reasons I'm siding with the Ol' Ball Coach here, but let's start with the most obvious: improved quarterback play.
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Last season, the Gamecocks were rotating signal callers, and you know what they say: Having two quarterbacks is the same as having NO quarterbacks... Smelley was terrible, and Garcia was all but invisible. However, fast forward to this season, and we've seen the once interception-prone Garcia grow up before our eyes, posting an impressive 13 TD to 6 INT ratio this year, and leading a much improved Gamecocks offense because of it! Unlike last season, when the Gators teed off on a one-dimensional Gamecocks offense, this year Garcia will keep them honest, and that's a HUGE difference.
Also, unlike last year, where the Gators had several playmakers at the WR position, we just haven't seen that kind of explosivess in this year's Florida team, and that's makes covering a large spread all the much harder. In fact, Gators are averaging just 27 ppg on 399 total yards on the road this season. For comparison's sake, did you know the Gamecocks are putting up almost identical numbers when at home?! 26.8 ppg on 394 total yards of offense!
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Finally, besides revenge, improved QB play, and a less potent Gators offense, the Gamecocks are also expecting their largest crowd of the season, in what will no doubt be their biggest game of the year. Needless to say, we all expect the Gators to win SU here, but covering the number is entirely different story. South Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their L6 as a dog of 10 points or more! In the end, the Gamecocks have come a long way since last season's 56-6 blowout loss, and I expect their most spirited effort of the season this afternoon at home.
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Take South Carolina plus the points over Florida in this college football match up.
2♦ SOUTH CAROLINA
Chris Jordan
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Fresno State at NEVADA -7
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Rushing effectively is essential in college football.
And this just in: Nevada's rushing offense is pretty darned good!
Coach Chris Ault has long been known for the passing game, but there's a reason this team is ranked second in total offense, 15th in scoring offense and has won six straight football games.
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Ranked No. 1 in the nation, the Wolfpack are running roughshod through the competition for 319.1 yards per game.
That spells doom at Mackay Stadium for a Fresno defense that ranks 92nd in the nation in stopping the run. Overall the Bulldogs are 77th in defense, so I don't see how they're going to be able stop a team that has won those six games by an average margin of 25+ points.
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I realize the Dawgs have won five in a row, but tuning up for an angry Nevada team that is gunning for Boise State, by playing the likes of San Jose, New Mexico State, Utah State and what appears to be an overrated Idaho team is a bit questionable.
This is Fresno's first big test since losing at Cincinnati on Sept. 26. That was 40 Days ago.
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Nah, I'm not seeing it. Fresno won't stand a chance in Reno today.
5♦ NEVADA WOLFPACK
Michael Cannon,
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Fresno State at NEVADA -7
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I’m 26-12-1 with my last 39 overall free plays after Temple rolls past Akron last night!
Take Nevada as the home chalk over Fresno State.
The Wolfpack have quietly won six in a row after that dreadful 0-3 start to the season. Chris Ault’s Pistol Offense has been churning out the points and yards recently and I just don’t see Fresno State holding Nevada in check today.
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During its streak Nevada has an average winning margin of 25 ppg!
Coach Ault is a money-making 14-1 SUATS as a home chalk of 16 or less points, while the Bulldogs are just 1-7 ATS as underdogs of 17 or less points with revenge.
Colin Kaepernick, Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott are going to be too much for Fresno State today.
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Take Nevada minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
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4♦ NEVADA