Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 16

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Ohio State at Marquette
The Buckeyes travel to Marquette to face a Golden Eagles team that is coming off a 114-71 win over Grambling on Tuesday and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU victory of more than 20 points. Ohio State is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Buckeyes favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-1 1/2)

Game 523-524: Pepperdine at Central Michigan (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 48.161; Central Michigan 50.693
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (+4 1/2)

Game 525-526: Penn State at Pennsylvania (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 58.519; Pennsylvania 51.668
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 7
Vegas Line: Penn State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-1 1/2)

Game 527-528: Wright State at DePaul (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 59.475; DePaul 55.338
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 4
Vegas Line: DePaul by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (+1 1/2)

Game 529-530: Akron at Middle Tennessee State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 56.342; Middle Tennessee State 69.291
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 13
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-6)

Game 531-532: Ohio State at Marquette (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 75.981; Marquette 70.872
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 5
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-1 1/2)

Game 533-534: Santa Clara at CS-Fullerton (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 59.473; CS-Fullerton 51.775
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: CS-Fullerton by 2
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+2)

Game 535-536: Minnesota at Richmond (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 68.085; Richmond 62.368
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 6
Vegas Line: Richmond by 1
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1)

Game 537-538: Utah State at UC-Santa Barbara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 59.901; UC-Santa Barbara 55.364
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-2 1/2)

Game 539-540: Creighton at St. Joseph's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 66.203; St. Joseph's 65.783
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 1
Vegas Line: Creighton by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+3 1/2)

Game 541-542: Hawaii vs. Missouri (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 49.640; Missouri 70.227
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Missouri by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-10 1/2)

Game 543-544: AR-Little Rock at Florida (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Little Rock 48.227; Florida 79.316
Dunkel Line: Florida by 31
Vegas Line: Florida by 20
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-20)

Game 545-546: CS-Northridge at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 53.510; Fresno State 56.672
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 3
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (+5 1/2)

Game 547-548: Northern Iowa at George Mason (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 61.494; George Mason 59.562
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 2
Vegas Line: George Mason 3
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+3)

Game 549-550: Tulsa at Missouri State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 53.176; Missouri State 59.168
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 6
Vegas Line: Missouri State 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (-4 1/2)

Game 551-552: St. Louis at Southern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 69.118; Southern Illinois 61.666
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+12 1/2)

Game 553-554: Wisconsin at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 72.188; WI-Green Bay 59.117
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 13
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 5
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-5)

Game 555-556: Princeton at Butler (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 59.095; Butler 62.652
Dunkel Line: Butler by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Butler by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+6 1/2)

Game 557-558: Loyola-Chicago at Tulane (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 52.103; Tulane 59.865
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tulane by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (-3 1/2)

Game 559-560: Arkansas State at Wyoming (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 50.287; Wyoming 60.143
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 10
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 8
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (-8)

Game 561-562: Drake at St. Mary's (CA) (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 60.385; St. Mary's (CA) 72.819
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 15
Dunkel Pick: Drake (+15)

Game 571-572: Appalachian State at Cincinnati (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 46.960; Cincinnati 70.124
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 23
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-19 1/2)

Game 573-574: Virginia vs. Davidson (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 65.415; Davidson 64.747
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 1
Vegas Line: Virginia by 10
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (+10)

Game 575-576: SE Missouri State at IUPUI (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 54.159; IUPUI 40.343
Dunkel Line: SE Missouri State by 14
Vegas Line: SE Missouri State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (-2 1/2)

Game 577-578: Tennessee State at Wichita State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 53.925; Wichita State 74.633
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 23 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+23 1/2)

Game 579-580: Wofford at Iona (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 49.864; Iona 55.910
Dunkel Line: Iona by 6
Vegas Line: Iona by 9
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+9)

Game 581-582: Siena at LaSalle (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 44.262; LaSalle 70.400
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 26
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (-16 1/2)

Game 583-584: Marist at Providence (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 50.687; Providence 64.078
Dunkel Line: Providence by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Providence by 16
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+16)

Game 585-586: Weber State at Colorado State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 62.336; Colorado State 70.786
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-2 1/2)

Game 587-588: Canisius at St. Bonaventure (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 55.033; St. Bonaventure 63.600
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 4
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-4)

Game 589-590: Montana State at UC-Riverside (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 44.489; UC-Riverside 47.607
Dunkel Line: UC-Riverside by 3
Vegas Line: UC-Riverside by 5
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (+5)

Game 591-592: George Washington at Manhattan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 58.015; Manhattan 65.456
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-5 1/2)

Game 593-594: Eastern Illinois at Illinois-Chicago (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 47.677; Illinois-Chicago 53.551
Dunkel Line: Illinois-Chicago by 6
Vegas Line: Illinois-Chicago by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+8 1/2)

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Atlanta at New York
The Knicks look to bounce back from their 109-106 loss to Houston on Thursday and build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New York is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Knicks favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: New York (-4)

Game 501-502: Miami at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 125.041; Charlotte 115.389
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 9 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: Dallas at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 118.567; Orlando 121.278
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 2 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 3; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+3); Over

Game 505-506: Cleveland at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 111.390; Washington 115.343
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 4; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 8; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+8); Over

Game 507-508: Atlanta at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.123; New York 120.977
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 6; 197
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-4); Under

Game 509-510: Indiana at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 125.081; Chicago 119.140
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 179
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 511-512: Denver at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 114.805; Houston 125.541
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 10 1/2; 219
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 8; 212
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-8); Over

Game 513-514: Boston at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.960; Minnesota 123.548
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 10; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+10); Over

Game 515-516: Philadelphia at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 112.457; New Orleans 120.810
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 8 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 517-518: Oklahoma City at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 122.707; Milwaukee 115.275
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 519-520: Utah at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 111.676; Golden State 123.745
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 12; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 15; 200
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+15); Over

Game 521-522: Brooklyn at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 116.904; LA Clippers 124.703
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 208
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NHL

NY Rangers at Montreal
The Rangers look to bounce back from their 3-2 loss to New Jersey on Tuesday and build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. New York is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+110)

Game 1-2: Detroit at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 10.942; NY Islanders 10.275
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105); Over

Game 3-4: Pittsburgh at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.742; New Jersey 11.393
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140); Under

Game 5-6: NY Rangers at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.840; Montreal 10.990
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+110); Over

Game 7-8: Buffalo at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.304; Toronto 12.732
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-220); 5
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-220); Under

Game 9-10: Tampa Bay at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 13.279; Phoenix 12.157
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+125); Under

Game 11-12: Chicago at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.482; Nashville 9.500
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-170); Over

Game 13-14: Carolina at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.152; St. Louis 12.546
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-255); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-255); Over

Game 15-16: Florida at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 12.285; Colorado 11.114
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+210); Under

Game 17-18: Edmonton at Calgary (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 9.579; Calgary 11.298
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-140); Under

Jesse Schule

Texas Christian vs. Kansas State
Pick: Kansas State

My strongest play last Saturday was on the Wildcats, and they dominated in a 49-26 victory over Texas Tech in Lubbock. The Wildcats have won three straight, and their defense has been quite impressive in those games, allowing an average of fewer than 12 points to Texas Tech, Iowa State and West Virginia.

K-State will host the TCU Horned Frogs this Saturday, and TCU has really struggled against top tier defenses this season. They weren't overly impressive last week, scoring just 21 points in a close game on the road against the Cyclones (21-17).

Prior to that they were blown out by Texas and Oklahoma State, and upset in overtime by West Virginia.

Casey Pachall has been picked off five times in three starts since taking over for Trevone Boykin at quarterback, and he's tossed just three touchdown passes during that span.

The K-State defense has five picks on opposing quarterbacks the last two weeks, and they should make life difficult for Pachall today.

The Wildcats are a double digit favorite, but I expect to see them win by a minimum of two TDs.

Alex Smart

Wyoming vs. Boise State
Play: Boise State -22

Wyoming enters this game with a very good rushing attack, but I believe Boise State defensive coaches will have the team ready to stop it. Fresno State laid out a good blueprint for just how to slow the Cowboys down. On the flip slide, Boise State is even more explosive offensively than Wyoming , behind interim pivot Hedrick and unfortunately for the Pokes their defense is horrendous thanks to very limited playbook. It must be noted that Boise State has suffered a rash of injuries, but the bye week should have helped get some of its key players back in the lineup.Boise State blew out the Cowboys 45-14 last season and a similar result Im betting is on todays agenda.

Joseph D'Amico

Houston vs. Louisville
Play: Houston +16½

The winner of this game (along with a 1-loss Cincinnati ) will be the only teams to have the opportunity to upend UCF, who is perfect in Conference play. Houston is 8-1 ATS this season while Louisville failed to cover 4 of their L5. Don't let their stats fool you. The Cougars have just 2 losses and they were by 1 and 5 points while their 1 no-cover was by 6 points. They nearly had UCF last week and BYU a month ago. The Cardinals numbers have been inflated all season long. By the way, UH is 5-0 ATS away from home while UL is 2-3 ATS when playing host. Both offenses share similar, almost identical statistics. Now truth be told, on paper, Louisville's defense is stronger. But the Cards have not ran the ball as successfully as they did at the beginning of the season. QB, Bridgewater will have problems with the Cougars secondary that tops the nation with 18 INTs. The connection of QB, John O'Korn (2352 YP 23/6 TD/INT) and WR, Deontay Greenburg (70 receptions, 1042 YR, and 9 TDs) will exploit the tired and over classed Cardinals secondary. Remember that Houston held their L3 foes to just 18.6 PPG and they were all quality squads. The Cougars also led the nation with a +21 TO margin. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS their L5 Conference games, 2-5 ATS their L7 vs. teams with a winning record, and 0-4 ATS their L4 games played following a SU win. The Cougars are 4-1 ATS their L5 Conference games, 6-0 ATS their L6 road games, and 10-1 ATS their L11 games played overall.

Bryan Leonard

South Florida +1½

No doubt Memphis is an improved team this year but they are still just 1-6 against FBS competition with the lone win coming against Arkansas State. This is a team that has played an extremely easy schedule with just Central Florida and Houston being quality opponents. South Florida has a 2-5 mark against FBS opponents but they have played the tougher schedule. The Bulls faced Michigan State, Miami Florida, Louisville and Houston. USF also is coming in off a bye week. These two clubs have played two common opponents, Cincinnati and Houston. Memphis lost both those games by 23 combined points while South Florida split being outscored by just 6 points.

When looking at season to date numbers we can see where the Tigers could be installed as a slight road favorite. But while the Tigers have regressed slightly the Bulls have played much better ball over the second half of the season. USF has split their last four games against Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville and Houston. That's actually pretty impressive. They were competitive in all but one of those games as Louisville as expected dominated. But in the other three contests the Bulls covered by a combined margin of 31 1/2 points. This is an improving club that has faced a much tougher schedule than the Tigers.

In using the last three games stats for example the Bulls are clearly the better team in yards per play and points per play numbers. As much as we like the job Justin Fuente has done at Memphis, the Tigers have played just two road games all year. They do not deserve to be in this price range.

Fezzik

Ohio St. / Illinois Over 66.5

We should get some serious steam OVER here. Illinois will get some points, but the Buckeyes may not punt all game.......desperate to stay ahead of the surging Baylor team in the polls, look for them to do everything possible to put up 50 points in this game!

Strike Point Sports

Maryland (+15) over Virginia Tech

The Terps have been pretty poor during ACC play. However I think this is a bit high of a number to be giving them here. It’s one thing for Virginia Tech to get up for its former Big East and current ACC rivals Miami, but it is another to motivate yourself for a game like this late in the season when it’s clear your opponent isn’t playing for another thing. And prior to the Hokies’ win at Miami, they lost to Duke and Boston College. Not exactly top-tier ACC programs. Four times this season Virginia Tech has not scored 20 points, so it may be a bit of a stretch to assume they can score enough to cover this high spread. Take the points and Maryland in Blacksburg.

Jason Sharpe

Navy (-9) over South Alabama

We have spoken all season about how there was value in backing this Navy football team, and that’s been true as the Midshipmen have covered six of their nine games overall this season. They know that they still need one more win this year to qualify for a bowl game at the end of the season. Navy is a perfect 4-0 at home thus far and will look to win their ninth home contest in their last 10 home games overall these last two years. Expect some extra effort and motivation in this one as this will be ‘senior day’ and the final home game of the year for Navy.

You have to wonder what the mindset is for the South Alabama football team coming into this late season nonconference road game here versus Navy. It can be hard for a team to go out of conference late in the year and stay focused in a nonconference game with little meaning. The Jaguars are just 1-3 away from home this season and have failed to cover either of their last two contests overall. They face a Navy squad here who matches up well against Sun Belt conference teams as the Midshipmen are 6-2 overall their last eight games against them, and their one loss was due more to the fact they lost their star quarterback Keenan Reynolds to an injury early in that game.

The Midshipmen would love to take care of business and get their all-important sixth win of the season here. Take Navy minus the points in this one.

Stephen Nover

Central Florida -16½

Temple is 1-8. The Owls, to their credit, have played hard losing two tough road games in a row falling to SMU 59-49 and to Rutgers 23-20 the past two weeks as double-digit 'dogs.

I don't see the Owls having anything left in the tank. Central Florida is vastly superior on both sides of the ball and is in a dogfight with three other teams for first place in the American Athletic College conference. So the Knights won't be taking Temple lightly.

Central Florida ranks 12th in the country in fewest points allowed per game at 18.6. The Knights have a very good quarterback in Blake Bortles, who is completing 68 percent of his passes with a 15-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Bortles should fare well against the Owls, who rank 121st in pass defense. Temple has surrendered at least 300 yards through the air in seven of its nine games.

Temple is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games and starts a true freshman at quarterback, P.J. Walker, who isn't nearly as accurate as Bortles.

I believe this is a kill spot for Central Florida and the Knights are playable now that the line has gone below 17.

Stephen Nover's Featured Package

Sam Martin

Miami FL at Duke
Prediction: Duke

Great spot to back Duke, as they take on a reeling Miami team that was ranked in the top-ten going into their matchup against Florida State, but after that blowout loss against the Seminoles they couldn't recover and then fell by 18 points at home against Virginia Tech. Miami clearly unable to cope with the big loss a few weeks back, and they take on an underrated Duke offense this Saturday on the road.

Blue Devils have won five straight (covered the spread four games in a row) and are scoring 38 ppg at home this year. More importantly, we love the style of Duke's offense - mixing in the run with a predominant passing attack, and the Hurricanes have been hurt through the air giving up 300+ yards passing in four straight games. Motivation and momentum clearly favoring the home side and we'll back Duke looking for an outright win.

Tom Stryker

San Jose State vs. Nevada
Play: San Jose State -7½

After ripping off four consecutive wins, San Jose State dropped a heart-breaker last week to San Diego State 34-30. Matched up against a Swiss cheese Nevada defense that has surrendered an average of 36.9 points and 518.8 yards per game, the Spartans will have no trouble picking up their bowl-eligible sixth win in Reno on Saturday night.

Since grabbing a pair of SU wins over Hawaii and Air Force at the end of September, the Wolf Pack have dropped five straight by an average of 13.6 points per game. Normally, the thought of fading UNR inside Mackay Stadium would turn my stomach. Fortunately, the Wolf Pack haven't played well in their own backyard posting a weak 3-4 SU record in their last seven games. The most shocking home loss occurred the last time Nevada battled at home. UNLV owns a miserable 5-50 SU record in its last 55 on foreign soil and they were able to leave Chris Ault Field with a 27-22 victory. If the Rebels can do it, you can bet your last buck State will get it done too.

As a team, San Jose State has been at its best when facing a foe that enters without momentum off a straight up loss. In this specific role the Spartans are a reliable 50-35-1 ATS including a jaw-dropping 25-10 ATS if favored. With those two parameters live and State facing a foe off two or more straight up losses, this team trend explodes to a sound 20-6 ATS including 17-2 ATS in this set provided the Spartans own a won/loss percentage greater than .250.

In order to become bowl eligible, SJSU must win one of its last three games. Even though the Spartans close with a pair at home against Navy and Fresno State, this is the weakest opponent they will face. Quietly, head coach Ron Caragher's kids have posted an eye-popping 15-2 ATS record in their last 17 on foreign soil. Here comes one more ATS victory.

Jack Jones

USC +4

The USC Trojans have been a revived team under interim head coach Ed Orgeron. They have played their best football of the season over their past five games with Orgeron at the helm. They have gone 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread during this stretch with their only loss coming 10-14 at Notre Dame. They have beaten both Arizona (38-31) and Utah (19-3) at home, as well as Oregon State (31-14) and California (62-28) on the road.

USC is playing well in all three phases during this stretch. The offense is scoring 32.0 points per game, the defense is allowing 18.0 points per game, and even the special teams chipped in three touchdowns against California last week. Orgeron has his players believing, and they are finally having some fun on the field as well. They certainly have the potential to beat Stanford, which lost at Utah 21-27 in one of its three true road games this season. The others were unimpressive victories at Army (34-20) and at Oregon State (20-12).

Stanford is in a huge letdown spot here. It is coming off its biggest win of the season against Oregon, and it would only be human nature for it to suffer a letdown in this game. The Cardinal have one of the most overrated offenses in the country. They are averaging just 389.4 yards per game to rank 82nd in the FBS in total offense. The sledding will be tough against a USC stop unit that is allowing just 19.6 points and 339.0 yards per game to rank 17th in the FBS in total defense.

The Trojans have the athletes and the physicality to match Stanford up front. They are allowing just 113 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. They will force Kevin Hogan to try and beat them, and it won't be pretty for the Cardinal's signal caller. Hogan has competed just 15 of 31 passes for 191 yards with no touchdowns in back-to-back wins over Oregon State and Oregon. While Stanford got away with those two performances due to their running game being dominant, that won't be the case Saturday.

There's no question that the Trojans have the edge at the quarterback position in this one. That will be huge because both defenses stop the run very well. Cody Kessler has sparked USC during its winning streak by completing 74.3 percent of his passes for 9.24 yards per attempt with four touchdowns against only one interception in his last three contests.

Plays against a road team (STANFORD) – off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. USC is 10-2 against the spread in its last 12 home games off a blowout road win by 28 points or more. The Trojans are 17-4 against the number in their last 21 home games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings in this series. It's revenge time for the Trojans after losing the last three meetings to the Cardinal by a touchdown or less.

Freddy Wills

Ohio State vs. Illinois
Play: Ohio State -32

Ohio State is 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 road games and Illinois is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 conference games, but that's not why I am backing a road favorite of nearly 5 touch downs. The ranked teams know they have to win in impressive fashion to keep up with the BCS rankings and that means win and cover the spread. If you don't think these teams know about the spread that vegas sets you are kidding yourself. Ohio State will feel like they have failed if they don't cover this spread and Illinois is bad enough to literally come up with nothing. After all they are 0-19 in their last 19 conference games. I actually think Illinois is looking ahead despite having Ohio State this week. Lets be honest I don't think they think they can win this game and they want to get over this Big Ten losing streak and their game at Purdue the following week is their best chance.

Illinois has not been a good defense at home at all allowing 56 points and 42 points to a couple of one dimensional offenses. Now facing Ohio State who can beat you both ways won't be pretty. Illinois is allowing 6.26 yards per carry in conference play, and they are allowing a 180 QB rating in conference play and overall have allowed 67% completion rate 8.8 yds/attempt, 18TD to just 2 interceptions. Ohio State is about to have a field day. All 12 of my algorithims agree which is not a shock, but since the 2009-10 season when I started there have only been 16 road favorites of 28+ points where all 12 formulas agreed on a win and it's gone 14-2 ATS including 4-0 ATS this season. Once again these teams are well aware of the spread and I think Ohio State comes up big on both sides of the ball.