Eddie J
Texas Tech vs Baylor
Pick: Texas Tech
25 th ranked Texas Tech looks to end a 3 game losing streak when they face the 6th ranked Baylor Bears.Texas Tech brings it's 7th ranked offense into the game averaging 530.5 yards per game. The Red Raiders are #1 in passing yards per game averaging 408.2 yards per game. Texas Tech averages 37.8 PPG and will try to avenge last year's 52-45 OT loss to Baylor. Baylor is 8-0 and 7-1 ATS this season with the best offense in the country. Baylor averages 687.6 yards per game which ranks #1 and are ranked in the top 9 in rushing and passing yards this season. Baylor is also #1 in PPG with 61. Baylor's defense is pretty solid itself #9 in the land allowing only 306.8 yards per game. Baylor is led by QB Bryce Petty and RB Lache Seastruck. WR Tevin Reese may miss the game for Baylor but won't be slowed. Baylor's defense has not faced any offense even close to Texas tech and will have a real challenge along with the pressure's of staying perfect. Texas Tech is 15-2 SU L17 years vs Baylor and in their 15 wins they won by an average 24.1 PPG. I have this line at Baylor -17. This line is off by alot.
AC Dinero
West Virginia vs. Kansas
Play: Kansas +7
It's tough to play on a bad team like Kansas when they are getting less than double digits. But they have shown modest improvement in the second year of Charlie Weiss. While the offense has struggled, the defense has been respectable, especially against the pass, giving up 6.8 ypa. This is more of a play against WVU than on Kansas. The Mountaineers are coming off a tough home OT loss to Texas last week, so they will surely have left some on the field. They give a lot of big plays in the passing game at 7.9 ypa. Even though the Jayhawks don't hit many of them, they should be able to keep this game close. Take the home dog in Kansas.
Will Rogers
Oklahoma State vs. Texas
Pick: Oklahoma State
The Texas Longhorns have won six straight, but their victory at West Virginia last week proved to be costly, as they lost two of their top players due to injury. The Longhorns host the Oklahoma State Cowboys this week, and the Cowboys have won five in a row.
Here are my keys to the game:
1: Injuries - Texas had already lost starting quarterback David Ash, and linebacker Jordan Hicks prior to last week. Now losing star running back Jon Gray and DT Chris Whaley leaves even bigger holes in the lineup.
2: Previous History - The Cowboys have won their last two visits to Texas, both by double-digits. They have won their last two road games by a combined 49 points, and one of those was at #15 ranked Texas Tech.
3: X-Factor - Running back Desmond Roland has scored 10 TDs in his last four games, including four scores on 219 rushing yards versus Iowa State. That's not good news for a Texas defense that is allowing an average of 185 yards rushing per game.
Matt Fargo
Cincinnati vs. Rutgers
Pick: Rutgers
Rutgers has been a model of inconsistency this season for sure. The Scarlet Knights went to Fresno St. in their first game of the season and nearly defeated the Bulldogs and then went on to win four straight games. Since then, they had blowout losses against Louisville and Houston and narrowly escaped a game against Temple last time out. The good news? Rutgers is coming off a bye week and remains home for its third straight game in New Jersey. We played against Cincinnati last week as it was unable to cover against SMU and I fully back up what was said then about the Bearcats being one of the more overrated teams around. The Bearcats have six wins against FBS opposition but the combined record of those teams being 6-41 with the best record of the bunch being 3-5 SMU. Even the losses have been questionable as Cincinnati went down against 2-6 South Florida and 3-6 Illinois. So that makes this the toughest opponent the Bearcats have seen all season. The Scarlet Knights are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week while Cincinnati is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games following four or more consecutive wins.
Teddy Covers
Wyoming vs. Boise State
Pick: Boise State
Wyoming stunk up the joint at home against Fresno last Saturday Night; costing my clients and I money in the process. I expect we’ll get it back here! After getting out to an early 10-0 lead, the Cowboys wasted several scoring chances, then proceeded to get torched for 48 unanswered points in an ugly blowout loss.
That defeat marked the third blowout loss that the Cowboys have suffered in their last five games. They’ve got another road game at Utah State to close out the season, which basically means that the Cowboys aren’t going to get to 6-6 and go bowling this year – last week’s loss was essentially their last chance. When a team has no bowl hopes and is showing lots of ‘quit’ when trailing, they’re an easy fade as they step up in class on the road in November.
Wyoming’s defense isn’t going to get any better. Head coach Dave Christensen fired his coordinator prior to their bye week, but the D certainly wasn’t getting stops, even with two weeks of preparation time. They’ve allowed 52, 51 and 48 points in their last three ballgames, primed to get torched again here.
Boise is fresh and rested off their bye week, and the once formidable ‘pointspread tax’ to support Boise at home is non-existent these days thanks to their 4-12 ATS run as home chalk since the start of the 2011 campaign. That ATS track record doesn’t concern me one bit, especially when we factor in Boise’s domination in this series, winning 45-14, 36-14 and 51-6 in the last three seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
Oregon State/Arizona State Over 63½
I expect this game to be a shootout. Neither of these teams has been great defensively, and both teams possess quick scoring ability on offense. The Beavers are averaging 46.5 points per game on the road, and they are a very pass heavy team. That makes the over look great since the clock will stop when the Beavers are not advancing the ball downfield. Oregon State’s defense has allowed an average of 39.7 points per game on the road, but they have yet to face an opponent as strong offensively as Arizona State.
The Sun Devils are scoring an average of 51.2 points per game at home this season. Their offense has been hard to stop, and that has led to a 7-2 record in favor of the over in their nine games this year. The Sun Devils are a run-biased team gaining 225 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry when playing at home. That should suit them well this week against a Beavers defense that has given up 4.4 yards per carry against the run. You should play the under when the total is 63 points or more in a conference game involving two teams with a turnover differential greater than .75 per game after eight or more games this season. The over is 26-4 in this situation over the past 10 seasons.
Steve Janus
Central Michigan -2
This might not be the most entertaining game to watch, but I feel there is some solid value on Central Michigan laying less than a field goal. Western Michigan's only win of the season is a 31-30 road win over UMass, which isn't saying much. Central Michigan's signature win is a 26-23 victory over Ohio, who despite being a bad team right now is much better than UMass.
The Chippewas have played a pretty brutal schedule for a MAC team, which I believe has them extremely undervalued in a huge revenge spot. Western Michigan has won two straight in the series and last year went into Central Michigan and came away with a 42-31 win.
Not only will Central Michigan be motivated to return the favor against their in-state rivals, but the Chippewas have another key motivational edge. With UMass and Eastern Michigan left on the schedule, Central Michigan has a legit shot at becoming bowl eligible if they can come away with a win against the Broncos. Western Michigan has nothing but pride to play for at 1-9 and I just think there's too much value on the more motivated team at this line.
Chip Chirimbes
Washington State vs. Arizona
Play: Washington State +12
Washington State who has lost their last three games by an average of 29.3 points is playing for just the second time since October 19 and should have plenty in the tank for the Wildcats. Arizona has won the last five meetings but that was all before the new 'regime' moved in. Look for the Cougars to make it a point to hold onto the ball as they have amasses 27 turnovers. State has had time to heal and come out strong.
River City Sharps
SMU -14
UConn travels to SMU to take on the Mustangs, winners of their last 2 out of 3, looking for their first win of the season. Good luck finding it here. UConn is just BAD. They rank 120th in pts scored and 104th in pts against. They can’t run it and really can’t throw it either, ranking last in rushing and near the bottom in passing. SMU’s defense is not great but they put points on the board, close to 32 per game vs UConn only 15 per game. SMU loves to throw it and are ranked 5th in the FBS in passing offense. We just don’t think UConn can hang with the SMU who put up 52, 34 and 59 in their last 3 games against better competition. The Sharps say…
Kyle Hunter
Texas State vs. Arkansas State
Play: Arkansas State -7
The Arkansas State Red Wolves started the season slowly, but the team that has been atop the Sun Belt in the past couple years has been looking much more like the team from the past few years in their last couple games. They completely dominated a good Louisiana Monroe team on the road last week. Arkansas State has a solid defense and a balanced offense. Texas State's defense is pretty good, but they don't have a consistent offense. Look for Arkansas State to coast to a comfortable victory here. Take Arkansas State.
Jim Feist
Nets vs. Clippers
Play: Under 205
Brooklyn is 3,000 miles from home and these old guys won't want to run after playing at Phoenix last night. This offense is 20th in the NBA in scoring. The blockbuster trade that brought Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry -- all over 35 years old -- to Brooklyn in July has been a major bust thus far. Pierce is averaging a career-worst 13.4 points -- 5.2 lower than last season -- while Garnett and Terry are combining for 11.9 per game on 34.7 percent shooting. Plus, star point guard Deron Williams is off to a poor start, averaging 11.1 points. LA is playing better defense under new coach Doc Rivers, who demands defense, on a 3-2 run under the total. The under is 7-3 in the Clippers last 10 vs. the NBA Atlantic, so grab the Nets/Clippers under the total.
Doug Upstone
Oregon -27½
Marcus Mariota appears to be the starting QB for the Ducks on Saturday, although there is obvious slight caution on behalf of the betting public as this line has sunk in spots. Oregon got outplayed bad by their nemesis and kryptonite in Stanford but will bounce back in a big way at home against a Utah team that appears lost away from home. Lay the four touchdowns, Oregon coasts here.
Rob Vinciletti
California vs. Colorado
Play: California +3
On Saturday the Free College Football System play is on California. Game 357 at 5:30 eastern.We are going to fade Colorado here as we note that home favorites of less than 5 off a road dog straight up and ats loss have failed to cover 36 of 47 times since 1980 if they allowed 40 or more points and are playing an opponent off a home loss. CAL finally gets a team they can handle here. Colorado is 0-7 to the spread if they were a road dog in their last game and has failed to cover 4 of the last 5 in the first of back to back home games. Cal won here last season and we simply cant lay points with a Colorado team that is 3-22 straight up in Conference play. Cal has a solid offensive edge and should emerge with the win against the first losing team they will face all season. On Saturday we have a Tremendous day planned with Several High end late season College Football Plays one is a 6*, the others are the 5* Blowout, Outright dog winner, PAC 12 And BIG 12 Games of the Month and more. We also have the 100% NBA road warrior System Play and the 5* College Hoops Game of the Week. Jump on and cash out all day and night as Our Football continues to be solid. For the free system Play take California. RV
King Creole
Houston +17
The host Cardinals have been dropped all the way down to #19 in the current AP poll, despite a 8-1 SU record on the year (right behind THREE-loss LSU). Ya think their 'cake' schedule has something to so with that? Louisville has played the #116 toughest schedule so far in College Football, and that's not sayin' much with 125 TOTAL teams in the mix. They do not have ONE signature win on the season. Their victims: Ohio U... Kentucky... Florida-Intl... Temple... Rutgers... South Florida... and Connecticut. Teams with a combined 17-43 SU record. No wonder their stats are padded!
The Cardinal team has not been a very reliable BIG favorite over the years. LOUISVILLE has gone 3-10-1 ATS as conference favs of -11 > pts since the 2005 season. That includes 2-9 ATS when playing off a SU win... and a PERFECT 0-4 ATS already THIS season (ATS losses vs Temple / Rutgers / C Florida / Connecticut). The ONLY team that Louisville has faced this season with a strong passing game like Houston was Central Florida. And they lost that game OUTRIGHT as double-digit favorites.
Houston has exceeded oddsmakers expectations BIG-TIME in 2013. Their overall 8-1 ATS record is 2nd BEST in all of college football (behind Wisconsin). And that record is actually 10-1 ATS dating back to last season. The Cougars BEST role over the years is that of the UNDERDOG. Houston is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS as dogs over the last 12 months... 5-0 ATS as conference dogs of 4 > pts since 2005... and 6-0 ATS as DOUBLE-DIGIT dogs in Game Four or greater since 2004.
The Cougs couldn't quite pull out the upset last week, but they DID easily cover the +13.5 points in a 19-14 loss. QB John O'Korn leads an offense that's churning out 466 total YPG... with 306 YPG coming via the air. This 38.0 ppg offense can play from ahead or play from behind (OR come in the back door). And let's not forget that when they take on QB Teddy Bridgewater on defense, they bring the BEST ball-hawking secondary in college football. Houston leads the entire nation with 18 total interceptions.
This conference might be called the AAC now (American Athletic Conference), but it's still made up primarily of old Big East Conference members. And big FAVS in this conference do not do well against decent opponents.
1-8-1 ATS since 2006: All Big East / AAC favorites of > 14 pts off a SU win (Louisville) versus any .500 > opponent (HOUSTON).
The Cardinals play off a FRIDAY night win (but non-cover) against UConn.
0-5-1 ATS last 2 years: All Conference teams playing off a SU FRIDAY conference road win (Louisville) vs any .500 > opponent (HOUSTON).
Louisville was a BIG road fav of -28.5 in that win last week over the Huskies.
1-7 ATS last 2 years: All conference favs playing off a SU win but ATS loss as a road fav of -28 > pts (Louisville).
Bryan Leonard
Duke +3.5
Miami has dropped the past four games by a combined 57 1/2 points against the spread. What was once a very promising season for Al Golden and his club has turned into a nosedive. This is a team that is 7-2 on the season but has beaten the likes of Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Savannah State and Wake Forest. Victories against Florida, Georgia Tech and North Carolina are not nearly as impressive in retrospect. Running back Duke Johnson remains out and this offense just isn't the same without him. The last four weeks the Hurricanes have been outscored 127-89, not the type of numbers we want in backing a road favorite.
Duke is a football program on the rise. Last year David Cutcliffe took this team to a bowl for the first time since 1994. This year Duke sits at 7-2 on the season and actually has a shot at bigger things in this conference. With Miami, Wake Forest and North Carolina remaining on the schedule we could see another league game in the Blue Devils future.
When looking at year to date stats the Hurricanes appear to be the better team, but these squads are going in different directions. The last three games Duke is 1.5 yards per play better and has a points per play edge of 0.10. Both teams played a common opponent during that time, Virginia Tech, and Duke won by 3 while Miami lost by 18. Duke played the Hokies on the road while the Hurricanes hosted VT. Duke also had a plus 106 yardage advantage against what Miami did against Virginia Tech.