Harry Bondi
KENTUCKY (-12.5) over Vanderbilt
Last Saturday here on the FREE PICK page we used Missouri (-14) over Kentucky and cashed an easy winner when the Tigers rolled, 48-17. But this week we jump on the Wildcats as they face off against a Vandy team that’s in a horrible situation.
The Commodores are coming off a four-game stretch in which they have faced SEC stalwarts Missouri, Georgia, Texas A&M and Florida. They are also fresh off an upset win over Florida last week that marked the school’s first win at The Swamp since 1945. Not only are they off that huge win, but next week they play in-state rival Tennessee.
There is simply no way Vandy will be “up” for this game and that will be dangerous since they are laying double-digits against a Kentucky team that already has two close road losses this season to Mississippi State as a 12-point dog (28-22) and South Carolina as a 21-point dog (35-28). Take the points!
Marc Lawrence
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt
Pick: Kentucky
If any team on today’s card is ripe for a letdown following a huge win, it’s Vandy. Last Saturday’s shocking 34-17 upset of Florida marked the school’s first win in Gainesville since the US dropped an Atomic Bomb on Nagasaki in 1945. Even more surprising was the lopsided stat results favoring the Gators: Vanderbilt had just 12 first downs and 187 yards of total offense while UF passed for 305 yards! ”If you look at it statistically, it doesn’t make a lot of sense,” said VU head coach James Franklin. The difference was turnovers, including 3 INTs by Florida QB Tyler Murphy (Commies scored after each pick to build a 24-3 halftime lead). A win today makes the Commodores bowl-eligible for the third year in a row under Franklin and though we’re certain they’ll get it, we think the hefty pointspread may be out of reach. For openers, the Wildcats’ offense is up 5 points and 44 YPG under 1st-year HC Mark Stoops, and they’re averaging more than 34 PPG versus sub .666 opposition this year. The bluegrass boys are also a moneymaking 8-2 ATS in this series at Nashville, including 6-0 ATS off a SU loss. It boils down to this: we don’t think Kentucky is nearly as bad as its 2-7 record would suggest, and they sure catch the Commies at the most opportune time possible. We’ll take the generous points and watch (figuratively, not literally) as the Cats claw out a cover in Music City today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kentucky.
Bruce Marshall
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: North Carolina
ACC sources indicate no reason for alarm in Chapel Hill after QB Bryn Renner was lost for season due to shoulder injury as versatile Marquise Williams had been sharing snaps with Renner and provides an extra escapability dimension to offense. And Heels didn’t look like they missed Renner when Williams passed for 2 TDs and ran for another in romp past Virginia. Besides, Pitt could be on cloud nine after Notre Dame upset, and Panther “O” still choppy.
Larry Ness
Oklahoma State vs. Texas
Pick: Texas
If Oklahoma State can win its next three games, the Cowboys will take the Big 12 title and earn a BCS Bowl berth. However, the catch is, that all THREE of those opponents are ranked teams. Up first is this visit to Austin to take on Texas, which also controls its own destiny. The Longhorns opened with an easy win, then allowed an incredible 550 yards rushing in a loss to BYU, followed by a blowout home loss to Ole Miss. However, just as Mack Brown’s ‘obituary’ was being written, Texas has ripped off SIX wins in a row, putting them atop the Big 12.
It’s hard to envision Texas as a really elite team but the Longhorns have somehow mange to score at least 30 points in each of their wins. The Cowboys do not have the same offense as when Brandon Weeden was running things but after a 30-21 loss at West Va, followed by a close home win over Kansas St (a team which is MUCH better than most give credit for), the Cowboys have cruised to four more wins (making it five in a row), covering each of those four by outscoring opponents on average, 44.0-to-19.3 PPG.
A closer look reveals that Oklahoma State’s two-headed QB position (Chelf & Walsh) has been far from dominating in these last four games, completing 48.6%, 37.0%, 52.9% and 51.3%, despite the team averaging 44.0 PPG. The good news for OSU fans is that mounting injuries pose a major threat to Texas' position atop the Big 12. Still, my ‘gut’ says play Texas here as a home dog. Series history reveals that Texas has won 23 of 27 all-time meetings with Oklahoma St, including 14 of 17 at Austin.
Yes, the Cowboys have won the last two visits to Austin but my bet says Mack Brown’s ‘return from the dead’ continues as Texas grabs the outright win.
Red Dog Sports
Michigan State vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska +6
Take Nebraska +6 as the home underdog. The Cornhuskers are rarely getting points at home. Michigan State is a solid defensive team but they are just average on offense. I think we see a close game so take the points.
Dave Price
USC +4
Stanford is being overvalued here, as you might expect, following its big win over Oregon. The Cardinal haven't been the same team away from Palo Alto. They lost 27-21 to Utah and struggled to beat Oregon State while amassing only 273 yards in their last two road games. USC has lost by more than four points just once this season. It has won its last three games overall and its last four at home. With these streaks the Trojans have put themselves in position to challenge for the Pac-12 South title. That won't be their only motivation. They have lost four straight to Stanford and will be out to bring this losing streak to an end. Offensively, Stanford is very reliant on its running game. That plays right into USCs hands as the Trojans rank 17th in the country against the run with just 112.5 yards allowed per game. The Cardinal will have to throw the football effectively to come out on top, and I'm not sure their 105th ranked passing attack will be able to get the job done. You want to fade road teams that are off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more when they're matched up against an opponent that is off a win of 10 points or more over a conference foe. Doing so has produced an 18-2 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.
Joe Gavazzi
Wyoming +24.5
I fell asleep last Saturday night with Wyoming leading 10-0 over Fresno. Final: Fresno 48, Wyoming 10. What happened? Another clunker by the Cowboys, who are prone to do so in the Christensen/Smith era. But, they usually bounce back the next week as indicated by their victory against New Mexico following a loss to Texas St. and a cover against San Jose after a loss to Colorado St. Now, the Cowboys are in their best role of 17-4 ATS road dog, where they are 2-0 this season in covers at Nebraska (took 30, lost by 3) and San Jose (took 10, lost by 7). No surprise if it happens again today. QB Hedrick has filled in admirably for injured QB Southwick. But Boise, on the Blue, has become an overrated item as indicated by their 4-13 ATS recent record as home chalk. Inverted home road dichotomy is the way to go in this contest.
Andy Iskoe
Georgia +3.5
What a difference a few months make. Over the summer Georgia was a double digit favorite for this game at Books that posted advance lines. While Georgia has fared well for the most part their 6-3 record is a disappointment. The Bulldogs have battled injuries for much of the season and that explains losses to Missouri and Vanderbilt that followed a tough 3 point loss at Clemson in the opener. Meanwhile new coach Malzahn has made progress much quicker than expected in his first season at Auburn with the lone blemish a 35-21 loss at LSU in September. Auburn has displayed the better offense whereas Georgia has a significant defensive edge, especially against the rush. Georgia has defeated Auburn 45-7 and 38-0 the past two seasons. Auburn does have its big game vs Alabama up next but that is in two weeks so there should be no look ahead here. But there will be pressure as a win here means the winner of the Iron Bowl goes to the SEC Title game. Georgia is still a formidable foe and although they are reduced to playing conference spoiler they clearly have the talent to do so. They do have the better QB, the better defense and are getting players back from injury.
Tony Karpinski
Georgia vs. Auburn
Play: Georgia +4
Today’s free pick is Georgia over Auburn, taking the 3.5 points. Georgia has great QB play, and is very good quality QB, who sometimes takes criticism, although he does sometimes play down in big games. Georgia has played a very tough schedule this season, and they still are sitting with a very respectable record. Biggest issue with them is their lack of defense, especially with stopping the run, where teams have been able to find the end zone often against them. And they tend to allow teams long drives and let teams keep their offensive unit on the field, which Auburn will take advantage of fully. Auburn comes in red hot winners of 6 in a row. Both claim high powered offenses, that can score, and I expect it to be a thrilling and high scoring game. Auburn is completely opposite, in the fact that they do not have a quality QB, they play old school football, and will run the ball 40+ times in the game. A much disciplined team, who are patient and find the weaknesses of teams D-lines, and it will be their running game. Auburn is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Georgia and I like the Bulldogs to pull the upset here.
DAVE COKIN
TCU VS KANSAS STATE
PLAY:KANSAS STATE -11
Life in the Big 12 is not turning out as hoped for TCU. The Horned Frogs are on the verge of becoming bowl ineligible following eight straight post-season invites, and 14 in the last 15 years. Barring a miracle finish, TCU will be putting away the equipment for the winter in a couple of weeks. I’m pretty sure this isn’t what Gary Patterson and company was expecting when they bolted the Mountain West for the greener pastures of the Big 12.
If you want to point to one specific area that has paved the way for the decline of this program, it’s missing badly with QB recruits. Let’s face it, Casey Pachall, who looked like a star in the making, has evolved into a bust and Trevone Boykin is simply not more than an average FBS level signal caller.
TCU heads into today’s game at Kansas State needing to win its two remaining games to get to .500. The finale is with Baylor, so let’s just say that’s not a likelihood even if the Frogs are able to pull off the upset today.
Current form certainly isn’t encouraging on that count. In addition to the erratic QB play, TCU has suddenly forgotten how to run the ball as well. In the last three games, the Horned Frogs have rushed 91 times for a meager 228 yards. That means tough down and distance situations, and more of a reliance on the pass than is preferred.
Making matters worse for TCU is the fact they’re running into a Kansas State squad that has rallied impressively from 2-4 to 5-4 and is playing its best football of the season. The Wildcats figured to be down this season, but the decline is turning out to be less than what most projected. An 8-4 season now appears to be a very good possibility, and yet another feather in the cap of the amazing Bill Snyder.
Kansas State can be thrown on, so it’s possible that TCU can do some damage through the air. But the Wildcats are now beginning to dominate in the trenches, with an impressive 259-114 rushing yards ratio over their last three outings. I see the number being right about where it ought to be as far as the overall numbers are concerned. But I look at this game as a pair of teams that appear to be heading in opposite directions right now. I’m also aware that Kansas State is on a 24-9-1 spread run in its last 35 games, so this is a team that will generally get you paid. Look for that to be the case again today. I’m giving the points with Kansas State.
Richard Witt
Saint Louis -11.5
With their stifling defense and sufficient offense to get them over, the Billikens that the late Rick Majerus built should continue to ride their powerhouse steam run against another overmatched non-conference opponent. Visitor has too many weapons for hosts to handle. Take Saint Louis, and lay it.
Bill Milton
Penn State (-) over Purdue
Just have to fade Purdue every week, especially on the road, where they have been outscored by a combined count of 97-17 this season. Penn State comes into this one off a loss to Minnesota, and the last time they were a big favorite off a loss they drilled Kent State (ironically, the team Hazell left to come to Purdue) by a 34-0 score. They also won and covered a big chalk earlier in the season against Eastern Michigan, and last year won by 23 as 17 point chalk, making O'Brien's record 3-0 ATS as double digit chalk in his tenure in Happy Valley.
Dr Bob
Strong Opinion OVER (56½) - Central Florida (-17) 43 TEMPLE 22
I like Central Florida and the Over in this game. Temple’s offense is considerably better since P.J. Walker took over at quarterback in week 6, as the Owls have averaged 6.1 yards per play in their 5 games with Walker at the helm (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). That’s a big improvement over the Owls’ -0.3 yppl season rating and that is not reflected in the total. Not reflected in the side or the total is how much worse Temple’s defense is than it appears to be. The Owls have only allowed 30.0 points per game to a schedule of teams that would average 27.0 points against an average defense, which doesn’t look that bad. However, Temple has given up 508 total yards per game at 6.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 5.6 yppl against an average offensive team. That’s adjusted for facing Houston before O’Korn took over at quarterback (a huge difference from Piland, who started that game for the Cougars). Temple has faced only three better than average teams (not including Houston with Piland starting) and they gave up 8.8 yards per play to Notre Dame, 7.7 yppl to Louisville and 9.2 yppl two weeks ago against SMU. The reason Temple hasn’t given up as many points as they should based on their yards allowed is because they’ve only allowed 4.4 points per opponent’s possessions inside the 20 yard line (i.e. Red Zone opportunities). There is a strong correlation to a team’s overall defense and their red zone defense and it is very unlikely that the Owls will continue to allow just 4.4 points per RZ, which is the level that the nation’s top defenses allow.
Central Florida is a very good offensive team that has averaged 6.9 yppl when QB Bortles is in the game (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). The Golden Knights have faced only two bad defensive teams, U Conn and Florida International, and they’ve averaged 50 points in those two games – and Temple’s defense is worse than both of those team’s defensive units. My math model projects 573 yards at 8.4 yppl for UCF in this game and 386 yards at 6.2 yppl for Temple against a mediocre UCF defense. That total in this game is based on season scoring but Temple is better offensively with Walker at quarterback and their defense is not likely to continue to allow just 4.4 points per red zone opportunity. The stats suggest a total of 64 ½ total points and I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 58 points or less. That math model also gives UCF a profitable 54.1% chance of covering at -17 points so I like the Knights to cover – although not quite Strong Opinion status.
VIRGINIA TECH (-16½) 28 Maryland 14
Maryland is riddled with injuries and the adjustments add up to 7 1/2 points. The math favors Virginia Tech by 15 1/2 points after making those adjustments for Maryland's current personnel and the situation favors the Terps a bit with the Hokies applying to a negative 37-75-3 ATS double-digit home favorite letdown situation that is based on their upset win over Miami.
Memphis (-1½) 21 SOUTH FLORIDA 19
New USF quarterback Mike White looks like a major upgrade at the position given his good performance against Houston in his debut. However, my math model favors Memphis by 2 points even if White plays at the same level he did against the Cougars.
NAVY (-7½) 36 South Alabama 23
I've had Best Bet winners on (Pitt and Notre Dame) or against (Hawaii last week) Navy the last 3 weeks and this week the matchup favors the Midshipmen. I'd consider Navy a Strong Opinion if at -7 points or less.
Colorado State (-6½) 36 NEW MEXICO 30
My math model favors Colorado State by 9 points but New Mexico applies to a 115-51-3 ATS home underdog momentum situation that is based on last week's win.
OREGON (-28) 44 Utah 21
My math model only favors Oregon by 25 points and Oregon applies to a very negative 5-43-1 ATS situation that plays against teams coming off their first loss late in the season. I can certainly see the Ducks being deflated after their Stanford loss derailed their championship dreams.
MISSISSIPPI (-28) 52 Troy 18
I thought about making Ole' Miss a Best Bet, as the Rebels should score at will in this game if they focus on taking advantage of Troy's epically bad pass defense (9.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.9 yppp against an average defense). However, Mississippi has played conservatively with considerably more running plays then normal when they were installed as big favorites against SE Missouri State and Idaho this season. Troy does have a decent run defense, so the Rebels won't be nearly as effective in the second half when they take to the ground. However, I assumed Ole' Miss would run the ball at the same frequency that they ran it in those other two games as huge favorites and the math still favors the Rebels by 32 points and Troy applies to a negative 86-185-5 ATS situation that is based on the bad defense. Mississippi is a solid play here but I decided to pass on making the Rebels an official play.
AUBURN (-3) 36 Georgia 29
My math model only favors Auburn by 1 1/2 points but the Tigers apply to a 75-25-3 ATS situation and an 82-34-5 ATS situation and the record is 9-1 ATS when those two angles apply to the game.
Bob Balfe
Central Florida -17.5
Central Florida is a well coached team with an excellent QB. This is a school that does not get enough credit and could play major spoiler to someone in a big bowl game this year. Temple is not a good football team and I expect UCF to out class them in all areas of the game today. Take Central Florida.
John Ryan
Miami FL at Duke
Prediction: Duke
Not many seasons have been played where Duke actually has a shot to defeat Miami on the gridiron, nut this is certainly the year for them to get a big win. Duke has lost all eight games to the Canes in ACC action. The simulator shows a high probability that Duke will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an outstanding shot at ending the losing streak to the Canes. The Canes defense has given up 1066 yards in their last two games against FSU and V-Tech. The SIM shows that Duke will gain between 5.5 and 6.0 total yards per play. In past games, Duke is a solid 3-0 ATS this season and 8-0 the last three season when gaining this range of yards per play. Take Duke.