Tom Stryker
KANSAS ST (-) over TCU
Don't look now but Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder has his money-making ATS machine cranking in high gear in Manhattan. The Wildcats have won three straight, covered five in a row and cashed a ticket in 24 of their last 32 overall.
The same can't be said for TCU head coach Gary Patterson. Sure, the Horned Frogs are grabbing their fair share of straight up wins. But, the Toads are doing well covering the number posting a dismal 17-30 ATS record in their last 47 tries. Even worse, in this role matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up victory, this situations slips down to a woeful 7-20 ATS.
At home lined up against a foe that checks in off a straight up win, KSU has been a solid investment notching a strong 46-20-1 SU and 40-23 ATS record. In this role facing an opponent that battle a conference foe last, the 'Cats improve to a jaw-dropping 32-13 ATS including a sound 18-4 ATS in this set provided they crushed the pointspread by double-digits last.
TCU's defense is one of the best in the conference. That fact is noted. Fortunately, KSU has dominated the line of scrimmage lately and they've been running with success. With a sixth win and bowl eligibility on the line, the Wildcats will get the job done. Take Kansas State.
Charlie Sports
Miami Hurricanes -4
The 7-2 Miami Hurricanes of the ACC Coastal division will take on the 7-2 Duke Blue Devils also of the ACC Coastal division in 2013 College Football action. Mimai has dropped their last 4 NCAA football games against the spread, while duke has covered their last 4 ATS. Miami has laso beaten Duke straight up the last 8 games played between the teams. Miami gets the road cover.
Mid-Major Matt
Canisius vs St. Bonaventure
Pick: St. Bonaventure
A pair of undefeated teams are going at it in Olean as St. Bonaventure hosts Canisius. The Bonnies have wins over South Dakota and Abilene Christian this season. This is an important game as they have six of their next seven games on the road. Five players are averaging double digits early on this season for St. Bonaventure. Each of the top three scorers on the team have shot at least 45% from the field. Canisius also beat South Dakota for their only win of the year. They were led by Billy Baron who scored 27 points in the victory. Canisius came back in the 2nd half of their game against the Bonnies at home last year. SBU has covered 22 of the last 32 games that they were favored in. It's always been tough to win in Olean, New York. We think the Bonnies pull it out on Saturday too.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Houston-Louisville game staying Under.
While the Cougars have flown over the posted total in five of their nine games this season, and are fully capable of putting up some pretty big numbers, there's no way Louisville is going to let them come in and dictate the tempo of this game.
Houston, which happens to be 8-1 ATS on the year, does a pretty good job on road, where it is 4-1 SU. Thus, the Cardinals (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) are going to get defensive and play a real good game of keep-away to limit the Cougars' touches. Louisville has done a good job all season of scoring points, and keeping teams off the field to limit their scoring opportunities.
Louisville's margin of wins have been 42, 37, 14, 72, 23, 14, 31 and 21. T hat doesn't mean I want you laying the points here, though the Cardinals are capable of covering, it means they're going to do a good job of scoring what they need to, then keeping the Cougars at bay.
Take the under tonight, as Houston has stayed low in five of its last seven in November, and the Cardinals come in on under runs of 14-6 in Louisville and 4-1 overall.
1♦ Houston/Louisville UNDER
Jeff Benton
Saturday freebie is the underdog Temple Owls plus the double-digits as they play host to AAC frontrunner Central Florida in the City of Brotherly Love.
Props to George O'Leary's team for hanging on last weekend in Orlando, as the Knights were able to escape the challenge of Houston in their 19-14 win - but no cover.
That makes 2 of their last 3 tries in the favored role on the money-burning end, and now they are being asked to cover over 2 TD's on the road against a Temple team that has been rewarding their backers to a tune of 5 straight underdog covers.
I have a feeling the Knights might be a little too drained from their war with Houston to get up for the road blowout win this afternoon, and with just a 4-6 spread mark as the road favorite their last 10, will look to the competitive Owls to be in another game with the points.
Take Temple to keep things closer than expected at home.
3♦ TEMPLE
Craig Davis
Today's free play of the day is on the OSU Cowboys giving a few points in Austin, Texas against the surging Longhorns.
Two words for you... Jonathan Gray. Gray is one of the two-headed running monster in the Texas backfield that is unlikely to play today. When Texas got back to its roots after embarrassing losses to BYU and Ole Miss and ran the football, they've tasted nothing but success.
They became viable again when they pounded Oklahoma, 36-20, in a game that really wasn't even that close. The QB play didn't even have to be that good and the Horns ran roughshod over the Sooners defense with two RBs (Gray and Malcolm Brown).
While Brown is just as talented as Gray, one can't do it without the other. They both average around 18-19 carries per game and when one of them is out, it's going to be really tough for the other one to pick up that slack.
The Longhorns are going to be forced to pass the ball more than they want, and that plays right into Oklahoma State's hands.
The OSU run game will keep the Texas offense on the sidelines longer than they're used to and in the end, the Pokes will leave Austin with a 10-point win.
3♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Brad Wilton
Talking about a blowout of epic proportions here on Saturday as Florida State uses Syracuse as its rag-doll at Doak Campbell Stadium.
The Seminoles need to keep on laying waste to their opposition, as they have Ohio State right on their tails for a likely championship meeting with Alabama come January in their sights.
Simply put, Syracuse's paltry 14 points per game over their last 5 will not be good enough to keep Florida State from scoring a likely 60 points in this rout.
Don't look for the points to help either, as the Orange are just 4-8 their last dozen tries as the road underdog, while the Sems are 4-1 versus the number this season at home, and now 7-2 overall ATS for the season.
The Seminoles defense is allowing only just 12 points per game this year, so a 60-12 final score would be of no shock at all to me.
2♦ FLORIDA STATE
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is also out of the Pac 12 Conference, as I like the total in the Stanford-Southern Cal clash in Los Angeles, where I expect a low-scoring game to stay under the posted number.
Usually we might see a high-scoring game, back when now-NFL coaches Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll would get together with these two teams. In fact four of their last five meetings have gone over, with just last year's meeting staying low.
But with entirely different rosters, the teams are prone to play slower-paced games, as we've seen the Cardinal stay low in five of its nine games, and the Trojans do the same in seven of their 10.
Stanford has stayed under in four straight games, with an average of 40 points being scored in those games, against: Utah, UCLA, Oregon State and even high-powered Oregon. Meanwhile, Southern Cal has stayed low in three of its last four, with totals coming in at an average of 45.25 points per game.
Stanford is in on an additional under run of 7-3 on the road, while Southern Cal has played under in nine of its last 12 overall and 36-16 at home.
This one is staying under 47.5 points.
1♦ Stanford/Southern Cal Under
The Real Animal
Kansas +6½
That West Virginia number opened at 7½ and is now below a touchdown at 6 ½. The Mountaineers are favored despite back-to-back overtime games, their third week on the road out of four, and owning the #102 ranked total defense. Plus WVA is #89 in the country in rushing. QB Clint Trickett is out. He was completing just 52 percent anyway with a 5-5 ratio of touchdowns to picks. But now the job goes back to Paul Millard who 16-of-32 for 259 yards and a 1-2 ratio against Texas last week. The last four games Millard has appeared in the Mountaineers are 0-4 losing to Texas by seven, K-State by 23, Baylor by 31, and Oklahoma by nine. On the road this year West Virginia is 1-4 getting outscored 37.6-18.2 on average. Since the beginning of the season, West Virginia has lost eight defensive players from their active roster including SIX LINEBACKERS! Last week that defense was on the field for 90-plays versus the Longhorns. Kansas is seeking to snap a 27-game conference losing streak including 0-15 w/ Charlie Weis. But the fact is this line has gone down despite that horrid streak and knowing West Virginia won last year’s meeting 59-10. But it’s been my experience when a chalk is favored over a common number like seven and then dips blow a touchdown it’s a buy-sign to take the puppy.
Ken Thomson
Kansas St. -11
K-State is a hot team right now. They played Baylor as tough as anyone and should have beaten both Texas and Okie State. They are rolling now with Waters and Sams using their strengths from the QB possession. Thompson and Lockett are legit speed burners and the Defense is playing together in sync! I like Kansas State 34-13. Hubert could be a key factor at well for the Cats.
Tony Bucca
Texas State vs. Arkansas State
Play: Arkansas State -7
Arkansas State looks to become Bowl eligible tonight with a win over Texas State. TXST has no offense currently and no pass rush on defense but they do have a pretty decent run defense. Even though ARST has a so-so offensive line they still get it done for a 10-14 point winner at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
SOUTHERN MISS +17 over Florida Atlantic
This game is not going to attract a lot of attention. It’s a nothing game in a nothing conference between two nothing squads. The Eagles of Southern Miss have fallen on hard times. They are winless after nine games and they are likely to be winless after 11 games. It’s not unusual to see Southern Miss allow 55-60 points in a single afternoon. However, Allan Bridgford was relieved of his #1 QB status two weeks ago in favor of freshman Nick Mullens and the Eagles put up 323 passing yards against Marshall and 298 against Louisiana Tech with Mullens running the show. Still, the Eagles were blown out in both those games but it was the result of turnovers and not the teams’ inability to move the chains. The Golden Eagles take a huge step down in class from that pair when facing these Owls from Florida Atlantic.
FAU is a program that has some serious distractions, as Head Coach, Carl Pelini and defensive coordinator Pete Rekstis resigned on Oct. 30 after being accused of using illegal drugs. Both have stated that they were “forced to resign” and Pelini is seeking reinstatement. Pelini said his "forced resignation" occurred after Patrick Chun (FAU athletic director) and a university police officer took Pelini's phone and denied his requests to contact legal counsel. Chun said he could not comment about that specific allegation. We have not heard the last of this story but even in the best of times, the Owls shouldn’t be favored on the road by 17 points against an FCS school, let alone a team from within their conference. The Owls barely average more than 17 points a game. They come in with a 3-6 record and they have been favored by more than 3 points just one time over their last 10 games. Attacking bad favorites like this requires backing some truly awful teams at times but FAU does not have superior athletes to Southern Miss. The linesmakers had to come up with a number here and in this case, they came out with a bad one. Take the points and we’ll see you at the cashier’s window about 4:00 PM EST.
LOUISVILLE -16½ over Houston
This isn’t the first time this year that we’re stepping in against a Houston program that we’ve billed as overvalued the entire season. With a 7-2 record and some of the best passing numbers in the country, the Cougars most certainly have some appeal taking back this type of weight. Adding to its appeal was a good showing at #21 UCF last week, where Houston was receiving 13½-points and covered easy in a 19-14 loss. However, the Knights were flat last week and when you look at the entire picture regarding the Cougars you get a better idea of what team is about and it’s not as pretty as it seems. The Cougars have put up some gaudy numbers against some weak defenses and now they play the nation’s top-ranked unit. Houston’s lack of a running game means that they are going to have to pass to keep pace and that’s about the worst possible scenario for this visitor. Louisville thrives against teams that are forced to pass. Furthermore, the Cougars will play their third road game in four weeks and second long trip in a row after last week’s trip to Central Florida. The Cougars have had one of the easiest schedules in the country. They should have lost as an 18-point choice over South Florida two weeks ago but one of the most bizarre penalties ever called at this level prevented that from happening. Against the 1-8 Owls and the 2-6 Memphis Tigers (that pair is 0-9 in the conference), Houston won 22-13 and 25-15 respectively. The Cougars are all smoke and mirrors and it’s time that a true power puts them in their place.
Louisville and Houston are tied in the conference at 4-1. That’s bordering on lunacy. Comparing these two programs is like comparing Rob Ford to Fiorello H. LaGuardia. At home, the Cardinals have scored 49, 44, 72, 24, and 35 points respectively. Their defense allows an average of 10 points a game. Indeed the Cardinals have played some bad teams also and with that come some skewed numbers. However, the Cougars are a bad team also, playing against a Louisville squad that is playing at home for the first time in almost a month (Oct 18) and that is out to prove a point and distance themselves from this imposter. Yes, the points look sweet and that’s exactly what the oddsmakers want you to think. We’re suggesting otherwise.
SPORTS WAGERS
Creighton -3½ over ST. JOSEPH’S
The preseason pick to win the A-10 last season, Saint Joseph's instead limped to an 8-8 finish. The Hawks figure to be better this season with the return of seniors Langston Galloway, Ronald Roberts Jr., and Halil Kanacevic, who are as good as any trio in the conference. However, the Hawks lost Carl Jones at the point and that’s a problem for a team that isn’t likely to shatter any scoring records. As we all know, guard play is crucial to success at this level and in the regard, St. Joe’s is in trouble with a lot of inexperience, which leads to mistakes. The Hawks got away with it against Vermont and Marist in their first two games but we’re not sure they are aware of what’s in store for them here.
Early in the season we like to pounce on teams that have been left out of the rankings that deserve to be there and the Creighton Bluejays fit. Not only have the Bluejays been wrongly left out (creating undervalue) but because of it, the team will play with a chip on its shoulder. We can't uderstand what the voters were thinking when they failed to include Creighton on their ballots. This same Creighton team entered last season's NCAA tournament as a No. 7 seed, and while the Bluejays do lose Gregory Echenique they also return first-team All-American Doug McDermott along with four other rotation mainstays: Grant Gibbs, Austin Chatman, Jahenns Manigat and Ethan Wragge. Creighton possesses one of the best offenses, if not the best offense in the nation this season. This team is a top 25 club for sure and maybe even a top-12. Yeah, they’re on the road and yeah they’re spotting road points but this is a cheap price to pay for a team that is very likely going to put up 80 points a night and blowout weaker opponents. This blowout game will put them on everyone’s radar. We’re on it before that.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +192 over TORONTO
OT included. Last night we suggested that the Sabres are likely to win one of two in this home and home series and didn’t plan on playing them tonight if they had won last night. However, this line has forced our hand and it’s a must play against a Maple Leafs team that is in trouble. Seriously, look at Toronto’s lineup; Paul Ranger, Jerred Smithson, Colton Orr, Trevor Smith, Frazer McLaren, Carter Ashton, Jay McClement, Mark Fraser, Cody Franson and Nikolai Kulemin. That’s 10 players that couldn’t sit on the Sabres bench. The Maple Leafs have scored five goals over their past five games and their only win over that span came against the Devils in a shootout. One would have to be institutionalized to believe the Sabres have no shot here. Hell, we like Buffalo’s chances of winning better than Toronto’s chance. When losing sets in and goals aren’t coming, it’s tough to shake.
It wasn’t exactly a thing of beauty but the Sabres did get the victory last night. Buffalo fell behind 1-0 early but rallied to win it. The Sabres held a one goal lead going to the third and maintained it until an empty netter sealed it. That was Buffalo’s third win in five games. Its other victories came against the Kings and Sharks. It was also the Sabres first two-game winning streak of the season and gives the team momentum and confidence coming into this one. The Sabres are in a better frame of mind with some recent wins, a new regime and a ton of talented youngsters that don’t get down. The arrival of Matt Moulson seems to have created a positive energy around the team and it didn’t take long for it to rub off on the others. Now going for three in a row and taking back a huge tag against this depleted and fragile host, the Sabres offer up way too much value to ignore. Huge overlay.
Chicago/NASHVILLE Over 5½
This might be the worst goaltending battle in the past 30 years. Nikolai Khabibulin is the confirmed starter for the Blackhawks here. Khabibulin allowed four goals on 22 shots in a loss to the Senators on October 29. Prior to that, Khabibulin was lit up for six goals on 26 shots in an overtime loss to the Lightning. Khabibulin comes in with a 4.73 GAA and .818 SV% in three starts this season. With Corey Crawford in net, the Blackhawks have surrendered four goals in back-to-back games and have allowed four goals or more in five of their last 10.
Nashville is forced to go with Carl Hutton here after the Predators lost 4-1 last night in Pittsburgh, Hutton replaced Marek Mazanec for the third period last night after the latter was pulled after two. Hutton’s last start was against the Devils last Sunday and he surrendered five goals on 23 shots (.783 save %). The Devils may not score five times in another game this season. Hutton was also yanked early in the first period the game prior against Winnipeg, after allowing three goals on eight shots. Prior to this season Hutton had just one prior NHL start and now he’s being asked to step it up against the Blackhawks. We don’t think so. Chicago has scored 19 goals total and four goals or more in four straight. They also have a different mindset when Khabibulin plays. The Blackhawks know all too well that they are going to have to score some goals to get a win. That’s an approach we can get on board with. We might see four goaltenders in this game.
Pass NBA
Wunderdog
Wofford +9
The Wofford Terriers won 13 games a year ago and are off to a 1-1 start to this season. They have all three of their top three scorers back from a year ago that all posted double-digits, and this team should see some improvement rom a year ago. Iona begins a new season without Lemont Jones who averaged 22.6 points per game for the Gales a year ago. Someone must pick up not only his scoring, but his team leading 116 assists, and that may take awhile. The Gaels lost their opener in a very winnable game against Cleveland State, and did not cover and played below the line. That leaves the Gaels at 1-6 ATS in their last seven off an ATS loss. Wofford has more experience and scoring options here, so play the dog and back Wofford.