Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

DUNKEL INDEX

Hollywood SportsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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California at Oregon St.
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cal (3-8) is playing out the string after losing their fourth game in a row last Saturday that resulted in a 59-17 loss to Oregon. The Golden Bears were actually competitive in this game by only trailing by a 24-17 score midway through the 3rd quarter before seeing the Ducks score 25 unanswered points. Now Cal closes out their season playing their fourth game on the road over their last five in what will probably be head coach Jeff Tedford's last game before being removed the from hot seat he has been all season. The Golden Bears are ravaged with injuries with the two biggest being their quarterback Zack Maynard and their star wide receiver Keenan Allen both listed as questionable. Allan Bridgford completed just 9 of 21 passes for only 113 yards in place of Maynard against the Ducks -- and now he will likely experience his first start on the road this year. Cal has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Golden Bears allowed Oregon to generate 575 yards of offense last week -- but they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, in their last 17 games against Pac-12 opponents under Tedford, Cal has played 12 of these games Under the Total. Oregon State (7-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 27-23 loss at Stanford in a game where they blew a 23-14 lead. The Beavers managed only 312 yards of offense in that one -- and they were unable to take advantage of a +3 turnover margin. Oregon State has seen the Under go 9-4-1 in their last 14 games at home. And in their last 30 games against teams with a losing record, the Under is 21-8-1. Lastly, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Corvalis, the Under is 4-1-1. Take the Under.

Jesse Schule
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Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia
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The Mountaineers have fallen on tough times recently, losing four straight after going 5-0 to start the season. Quarterback Geno Smith was a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy during the first half of the season, but has now seemingly dropped out of the race.
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Smith had his worst game of the season two weeks ago against a tough Kansas State defense, throwing a pair of INTs and just one TD. He bounced back last week, putting up much better numbers, throwing for 364 yards and a pair of TDs, without any interceptions, in a 55-34 loss to Oklahoma State.
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West Virginia will host the Oklahoma Sooners this Saturday, as they look to get back on track. The Sooners are coming off a slightly less than impressive win over Baylor at home, winning by a margin of just eight points. The Sooners defense allowed Baylor to put up 34 points last week, this just two weeks after a home loss to Notre Dame with the Irish winning 30--13.
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The Mountaineers are getting double digits at home, against an Oklahoma team that hasn't been so strong defensively in recent weeks.
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West Virginia has only lost twice at home this season, and one of those games went to overtime. The other was against the undefeated Kansas State Wildcats, who have also defeated the Sooners in Oklahoma earlier in the year.
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I expect to see Geno Smith and the high flying West Virginia offense come to play, and at the very least they should make a game of it.
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Take the Mountaineers to Cover.

Art Aronson
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Western Kentucky vs. UL Lafayette
Pick: Western Kentucky
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I like the value we are getting here with Western Kentucky as it travels to LA Lafayette.
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The Hilltoppers are looking to bounce back after back to back disappointing losses SU and ATS to Middle Tennessee and FLA Atlantic.
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It wasn’t all doom and gloom for Western Kentucky as both games were decided by less than 10 points. The Hilltoppers actually outgained Middle Tennessee in the 29-34 loss.
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Talented play maker Antonio Andrews is now the nation’s league leader in all purpose yards this year, averaging a whopping 231.1 per game. Andrews surpassed USC standout Marqise Lee over the weekend.
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“We are not playing like we were early in the year. I have to find a way to make sure we get back to that in the next two ball games. Coach Willie Taggart said after the latest loss. “I have to evaluate everybody in our program to see that we do that."
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One thing Western Kentucky has done well all year is play well on the road. The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS this spread this year with their only loss coming to high ranked Alabama. Coach Taggart’s team has gone a very nice 15-2 ATS on the road the last three years. This game will be second time Western Kentucky has been a road underdog this year.
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The Ragin’ Cajuns are coming off a very strong showing against a tough SEC opponent in Florida. The game had upset written all over it from the kick-off. In the end the Gators avoided the big loss in a 27-20 game. Granted, this LA Lafayette team is coming off two strong road games where it covered the spread and almost shocked the nation. I think it is going to have trouble getting up for this game as there is a letdown potential.
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Western Kentucky has had its way with the Ragin’ Cajuns in the past two years under Willie Taggart. The Hilltoppers are 2-0 both SU and ATS. In those wins, Western Kentucky averaged 48 points despite being the underdog in both games.
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Note the Hilltoppers are 16-6 in its last Sun Belt Conference games. Look for them to at least cover the spread in this game. Good luck...Art Aronson.
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I like the value we are getting here with Western Kentucky as it travels to LA Lafayette.
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The Hilltoppers are looking to bounce back after back to back disappointing losses SU and ATS to Middle Tennessee and FLA Atlantic.
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It wasn’t all doom and gloom for Western Kentucky as both games were decided by less than 10 points. The Hilltoppers actually outgained Middle Tennessee in the 29-34 loss.
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Talented play maker Antonio Andrews is now the nation’s league leader in all purpose yards this year, averaging a whopping 231.1 per game. Andrews surpassed USC standout Marqise Lee over the weekend.
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“We are not playing like we were early in the year. I have to find a way to make sure we get back to that in the next two ball games. Coach Willie Taggart said after the latest loss. “I have to evaluate everybody in our program to see that we do that."
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One thing Western Kentucky has done well all year is play well on the road. The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS this spread this year with their only loss coming to high ranked Alabama. Coach Taggart’s team has gone a very nice 15-2 ATS on the road the last three years. This game will be second time Western Kentucky has been a road underdog this year.
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The Ragin’ Cajuns are coming off a very strong showing against a tough SEC opponent in Florida. The game had upset written all over it from the kick-off. In the end the Gators avoided the big loss in a 27-20 game. Granted, this LA Lafayette team is coming off two strong road games where it covered the spread and almost shocked the nation. I think it is going to have trouble getting up for this game as there is a letdown potential.
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Western Kentucky has had its way with the Ragin’ Cajuns in the past two years under Willie Taggart. The Hilltoppers are 2-0 both SU and ATS. In those wins, Western Kentucky averaged 48 points despite being the underdog in both games.
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Note the Hilltoppers are 16-6 in its last Sun Belt Conference games. Look for them to at least cover the spread in this game.

Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma -10.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Any questions about West Virgina entering the Big 12 and making a run for a title in year 1 have been answered. They have taken on the elite teams in the Big 12 and not only got beat, but in most cases they were DESTROYED. When your defense gives up 478 yards per game and close to 42 ppg, you are not beating anyone in this conference. WV also gives up 373 yards passing and QB Landry Jones from OU should have a monster day, and with RB Williams having open lanes to run against a porus defense of West Virginia, the Mountianeers cannot trade punches on the scoreboard in this one, in what was suppose to be a game for the title at the beginning of the season and now is just a double digit road favorite game in which OU should win by 20. I will lay it here, West Virginia off 4 straight SU and ATS losses.

Brad DiamondFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. Nebraska
Play: Minnesota
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Last week Brad Diamond Sports cashed the 10* MIDWEST GOY with Nebraska -8 1/2 over Penn State 32-23. What we learned from that game is sometimes the 'Huskers start slow, even at home. However, Nebraska still maintains a super 8-2 record. Their offense behind solid QB Taylor Martinez garnered over 400 yards against a strong PSU defense. We note, Nebraska has Iowa next week in Iowa City, and they are coming off back-to-back barn burners. Nebraska is ranked #28 in total defense. Last season Nebraska defeated Minnesota by 27. The surprising Golden Gophers (6-4) visit Lincoln this Saturday after defeating the Illini 17-3. This season defense has been Minnesota's key to success holding down opposing offenses to 22 points on average, ranking #25 in after Saturday. The Gophers are ranked #96 in total offense accruing 354 yards per game, far short of the 482 yards averaged by Nebraska. Since Minny has historical revenge here, and this is a flat spot for Nebraska, take all the points.

Jimmy Boyd
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Ole Miss Rebels +18.5
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While LSU dominated Ole Miss last season to the tune of 52-3, I believe that result to be an aberration. Consider that the Rebels had either won or lost by 17 points or less in each of the five meetings prior. They have won or lost by 17 points or fewer in 13 of the past 15 meetings as well.
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There are plenty of numbers that support taking Ole Miss Saturday. They are 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 meetings and 8-0 against the spread in the last eight meetings at LSU. Also, the road team is on a 13-3 against the spread run in the series and the underdog is on a 10-2 against the spread run.
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Teams headed up by Hugh Freeze have been terrific investments as they are 17-5 against the spread all-time. It is also worth noting that LSU is just 9-21 against the spread in home games against conference opponents under coach Les Miles. It has won these games by only 9.4 points on average.
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It should also be mentioned that LSU hasn’t been a reliable investment when laying big points at home. In fact, it is just 5-16 against the spread in home games when valued as a favorite of 14.5 to 21.0. points the last two decades. It has won by just 11.1 points on average in these games.
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Ole Miss will be extremely motivated here, not only by last season’s embarrassing loss but by the chance to become bowl eligible. Take the points.

Timothy Black

Tennessee +4

Tennessee has won 14 straight games at Vanderbilt and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Vandy. Also, in the series, the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

Accuscore

Northwestern +7.5 at Michigan State

This line has moved towards the Spartans which makes me like the pick even better. I took this game on Tuesday when it was 6.5 and now there is a cushion against a push. Northwestern covers 7.5 in over 60 percent of simulations, and wins outright in nearly 42 percent of simulations. The Wildcats are 8-1 against the spread this season, and it has shown it has the ability to put points on the board. The Spartans conversely average just 16.5 points at home which includes games against Iowa and Eastern Michigan. AccuScore projects the Spartans to score 26 points which means Northwestern only needs to score 19 to cover. The Spartans have a good defense, but have shown weakness against dual-threat quarterbacks allowing 205 rushing yards to Taylor Martinez, 136 to Braxton Miller, and 96 to Denard Robinson. Kain Colter should pose a similar threat.

LSU -18.5 vs. Ole Miss

Has Zach Mettenberger figured it out? It appears that way having thrown for 571 yards and 3 touchdowns against Alabama and Mississippi State. Ole Miss is a clear step down in competition with LSU winning 90 percent of simulations and score nearly 40 points on average. The Rebels likely will have trouble putting up points against this Tiger defense particularly on the road. The development of Mettenberger makes LSU much more multiple and dangerous on offense so I like them by 20 in this spot.

Louisiana-Monroe -10 vs. North Texas

The Warhawks are 10 points favorites by the oddsmakers and by our simulations. That line is actually low because quarterback Kolton Browning is questionable for Saturday. Browning did practice on Wednesday so it is possible he could start or at least see some action. AccuScore is currently projecting a 50-50 chance Browning plays. Either way, I still like this game for the Warhawks. Back-up Cody Wells was able to throw for 357 yards and a 70% completion rate against Arkansas State last week in a loss. Arkansas State has one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt, and while Wells is not a runner like Browning he can sling it pretty well. North Texas is poor on the road allowing a 150 QB rating and 70% completion rate it its opponents. Even subtracting the games North Texas has played against LSU and Kansas State, its offense has been mediocre averaging just 22 points per game. The Warhawks are a much better team at home averaging 0.5 yards more per play.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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South Florida at Miami FL
Prediction: South Florida
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South Florida's 12-senior starting squad is now down to seven and counting following the loss of four-year starting QB B.J. Daniels. Though B.J. has been about as effective as Charlie this season, it's still is a crippling blow for the struggling Bulls. The feeling, though, is Skippy needs a win in each of his final three games to keep his voter's card in Tampa and we wouldnt be all that surprised if this one goes down to the wire. The Bulls arrive with both the better offense and the stingier defense as they take on a Miami team that is in serious need of an oil change (0-6 In The Stats last six games). Yes, the Canes are riding a 4-0 ATS streak into this non-conference clash and can claim the ACC Coastal with a win at Duke next Saturday. But the combination of a look-ahead and lousy defense is a bad pairing for a substantial 7-point favorite. A 23-20 loss to these Bulls in this building in 2010 will get Miamis attention (along with the fact that Golden and company arent bowl eligible as of yet) but we just don't know if Golden can pick his squad up off the mat after last week's heartbreaker in Charlottesville. Holtz improves to a jaw-dropping 16-1 ATS in his career as a dog against .500 or less opposition here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on South Florida.

Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern vs. Michigan State
Play: Northwestern
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Michigan State is off the bye week and Northwestern was banged up a bit after last week thus the greater than a TD spread, but Michigan State's offense won't be cured over night and I think Northwestern matches up very well against them. Michigan State has scored more than 16 points just 2 times in the last 6 games while Northwestern has scored 21+ in all of their games this year and they have a 70 game run of scoring in double digits. So how is Michigan State going to win by more than a TD against a team that is fundamentally sound in all aspects especially special teams where they could have some advantages as Michigan State has allowed 25 yards per return and 10 yards on punt returns. I just don't think Andrew Maxwell can take advantage of Northwestern's suspect secondary and their run defense is playing well enough to hold Le'Veon Bell in check as they are ranked 25th in run defense this year and are 29th allowing 3.7 ypc. The difference has come up front as the defensive line is allowing their LB's to make plays. Michigan State has been unable to scored TD's in the red zone only 50% in conference play to Northwestern's 72% in conference play. Expect Northwestern to continue to stay in ball games as they have a lot to play for.

Joseph D'AmicoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NC State vs. Clemson
Play: ClemsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Two words…Tajh Boyd. The QB has a 68% CR, 2941 YP, 28 TDs with only 9 INTs, and 5 scores on 363 yards on the ground. Receivers Watkins and Hopkins have combined for 1656 YR and 16 TDs while Ellington has amassed 838 YR and 8 scores. The team ranks 6th in the nation in scoring, averaging 42.9 PPG, and winning 6 in a row SU and their L7 ATS (covering their L5 as DD favorites). NC State hasn't covered a single road game this season, going 0-3-1 against the number away from home. Two weeks ago, they were thrashed by Virginia, 33-6, a game in which they were a 10 1/2 pt fav. Without much of a running game, the Wolf Pack are in trouble here. Especially due to the fact that Clemson will be in "revenge mode" after dropping LYs meeting, 37-13 (after already clinching the ACC Title game). The Tigers are 4-0 ATS their L4 games played vs. teams with a winning record and 25-10 ATS their L35 Conference games. Take Clemson.

Jimmy Boyd
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Ole Miss Rebels +18.5
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While LSU dominated Ole Miss last season to the tune of 52-3, I believe that result to be an aberration. Consider that the Rebels had either won or lost by 17 points or less in each of the five meetings prior. They have won or lost by 17 points or fewer in 13 of the past 15 meetings as well.
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There are plenty of numbers that support taking Ole Miss Saturday. They are 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 meetings and 8-0 against the spread in the last eight meetings at LSU. Also, the road team is on a 13-3 against the spread run in the series and the underdog is on a 10-2 against the spread run.
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Teams headed up by Hugh Freeze have been terrific investments as they are 17-5 against the spread all-time. It is also worth noting that LSU is just 9-21 against the spread in home games against conference opponents under coach Les Miles. It has won these games by only 9.4 points on average.
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It should also be mentioned that LSU hasn’t been a reliable investment when laying big points at home. In fact, it is just 5-16 against the spread in home games when valued as a favorite of 14.5 to 21.0. points the last two decades. It has won by just 11.1 points on average in these games.
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Ole Miss will be extremely motivated here, not only by last season’s embarrassing loss but by the chance to become bowl eligible. Take the points.

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wake Forest +24
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The Fighting Irish are being overvalued here. They have won only two games by more than 24 points this season, and they haven't won a home game by more than than 7 points. Notre Dame has really been overvalued lately and is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a result. It is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points and 3-12 ATS in its last 15 as a home favorite of 21.5 to 28 points. Wake Forest is 9-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Demon Deacons covered the spread in last season's meeting as they only lost by 7 points as a 13-point underdog. I expect them to keep this one within the number as well.