Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 19

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Vanderbilt vs. NC State
The Commodores look to take advantage of a Wolfpack team that is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog. Vanderbilt is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Commodores favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-6)

Game 541-542: Buffalo at Princeton (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 53.864; Princeton 57.297
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-2 1/2)

Game 543-544: Louisville at Butler (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 70.548; Butler 68.903
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 4
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+4)

Game 545-546: Southern Illinois at Northeastern (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 50.326; Northeastern 56.792
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 8
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+8)

Game 547-548: NC-Wilmington at Dayton (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 51.192; Dayton 64.524
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Dayton by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-12 1/2)

Game 549-550: James Madison at LaSalle (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 59.007; LaSalle 60.537
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (+3 1/2)

Game 551-552: CSU-Northridge at Boise State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CSU-Northridge 49.874; Boise State 60.701
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 11
Vegas Line: Boise State by 13
Dunkel Pick: CSU-Northridge (+13)

Game 553-554: George Mason at Florida Atlantic (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 56.180; Florida Atlantic 59.523
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (-2)

Game 555-556: Wyoming at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 50.923; WI-Green Bay 59.105
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 8
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-6 1/2)

Game 557-558: Southern Mississippi at Colorado State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 58.009; Colorado State 65.839
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 8
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-6)

Game 559-560: UTEP at New Mexico State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 58.932; New Mexico State 66.893
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 8
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 9
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+9)

Game 561-562: Hawaii at Gonzaga (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 58.017; Gonzaga 67.032
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 9
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+11 1/2)

Game 563-564: Harvard at Loyola Marymount (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 58.450; Loyola Marymount 52.106
Dunkel Line: Harvard b 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 4
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-4)

Game 565-566: San Jose State at Santa Clara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 49.319; Santa Clara 59.435
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 10
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (-8 1/2)

Game 567-568: Long Beach State at San Diego State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 64.501; San Diego State 64.558
Dunkel Line: Even; 135
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 2 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+2 1/2); Under

Game 569-570: Cal Poly at USC (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 57.727; USC 61.757
Dunkel Line: USC by 4
Vegas Line: USC by 8
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (+8)

Game 571-572: Penn State vs. Kentucky (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 60.484; Kentucky 80.332
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 20
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-18 1/2)

Game 573-574: Old Dominion at South Florida (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 57.557; South Florida 57.587
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: South Florida by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (+2 1/2)

Game 575-576: Towson at Belmont (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 41.119; Belmont 69.158
Dunkel Line: Belmont by 28
Vegas Line: Belmont by 25
Dunkel Pick: Belmont (-25)

Game 577-578: NC-Greensboro at Middle Tennessee State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Greensboro 46.432; Middle Tennessee State 60.773
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 18
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+18)

Game 579-580: Duquesne at Akron (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 60.600; Akron 62.627
Dunkel Line: Akron by 2
Vegas Line: Duquesne by 1
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+1)

Game 581-582: Eastern Kentucky at William & Mary (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 47.110; William & Mary 49.853
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 583-584: Lehigh at Liberty (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 51.365; Liberty 54.097
Dunkel Line: Liberty by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 585-586: Nicholls
State at Houston Baptist (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nicholls State 44.847; Houston Baptist 38.438
Dunkel Line: Nicholls State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 587-588: CS-Fullerton at UL-Lafayette (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 47.414; UL-Lafayette 58.133
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 589-590: Virginia vs. Drexel (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 63.631; Drexel 58.145
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 591-592: Winthrop vs. Drake (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winthrop 47.077; Drake 56.862
Dunkel Line: Drake by 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 593-594: Vanderbilt vs. NC State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 69.437; NC State 60.869
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 6
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-6)

Game 595-596: Texas vs. Oregon State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 69.262; Oregon State 63.591
Dunkel Line: Texas by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 8
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+8)

Game 597-598: College of Charleston at Clemson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 57.694; Clemson 71.938
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 14
Vegas Line: Clemson by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-12 1/2)

Game 599-600: Weber State at UC-Irvine (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 58.036; UC-Irvine 54.409
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Weber State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+8 1/2)

Game 601-602: Montana State at Utah (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 49.944; Utah 53.980
Dunkel Line: Utah by 4
Vegas Line: Utah by 6
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (+6)

Game 603-604: Wofford at Wisconsin (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 56.780; Wisconsin 78.269
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-19 1/2)

Game 605-606: Appalachian State at Tennessee Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 49.415; Tennessee Tech 53.914
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee Tech by 7
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (+7)

NHL

Pittsburgh at Florida
The Penguins look to take advantage of a Panthers' team that is 2-10 in its last 12 games versus Atlantic Division opponents. Pittsburgh is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120)

Game 1-2: Philadelphia at Winnipeg (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.076; Winnipeg 12.452
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+135); Under

Game 3-4: Detroit at Los Angeles (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.382; Los Angeles 10.942
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Over

Game 5-6: Phoenix at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.019; Buffalo 11.225
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+130); Over

Game 7-8: Washington at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 10.452; Toronto 11.003
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Under

Game 9-10: NY Rangers at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.340; Montreal 12.403
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-110); Over

Game 11-12: Boston at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.925; NY Islanders 10.748
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Under

Game 13-14: New Jersey at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.068; Tampa Bay 12.017
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-140); Under

Game 15-16: Pittsburgh at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.794; Florida 10.980
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Over

Game 17-18: Columbus at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.281; Nashville 10.953
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+170); Under

Game 19-20: St. Louis at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.726; Minnesota 12.328
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-115); Over

Game 21-22: San Jose at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.978; Dallas 9.779
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-130); Under

Game 23-24: Chicago at Edmonton (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.763; Edmonton 11.633
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+110); Over

Brad Diamond Sports

TCU vs Colorado State
Play: TCU

After a euphoric road win over Boise State on the blue carpet last week look for the Horned Frogs to continue rolling at home against the Rams of Colorado State. Texas Christian is 8-2 SU and 4-6 ATS, while Colorado State is 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS this season. In winning over BSU Saturday, the Frogs generated 473 in the air, but only 33 rushing yards. In a difficult loss (18-15) to San Diego State, the Rams manufactured just 52 passing yards, an inability that will surely fracture their chances against a smart TCU defense holding teams to 5.28 yards per play. Remember Colorado State is ranked #103 on offense booking almost 329 yards per game. Simply, not in the class of this TCU unit looking for high honors in the BOWL CLASSICS. The home team in this series has booked 4 straight covers, while the Frogs have taken 5 of the last 7. After winning and covering against Boise State, TCU has a nice 14-5 ATS record in the month of November. In conference the Frogs are smoking showing at 38-14-1 ATS. Whereas, the porous Rams are 8-23 ATS on the road and 4-12 ATS as a road underdog. Finally, CSU is 1-5 ATS in conference last six times out. Lay the wood with the Frogs!

Hollywood Sports

New Mexico St. at BYU
Prediction: BYU

The Cougars (7-3) come off a dominating 42-7 win over Idaho last week and they have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points. Quarterback Riley Nelson left that game with a rib injury in that game but Jake Heaps (who began the season as the start) a good showing of himself by completing 15 of 20 passes for 185 yards and two touchdowns.gHeaps will get the start again in this one against a weak Aggies defense that allows 38.2 PPG along with 488.6 total YPG when on the road. New Mexico State's defense has allowed a whopping 52.0 PPG and 601.7 total YPG over their last three games. The Aggies (4-6) were able to outlast a fading Fresno State team as a 7-point underdog by a 48-45 score but they have then failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. BYU is averaging 42.0 PPG along with 477.0 total YPG over their last three games while also holding their opponents to just 16.0 PPG along with only 258.0 total YPG over that stretch. The Cougars are also 5-1 at home this season -- and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as a favorite of more than ten points. BYU has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games under the leadership of head coach Bronco Mendenhall while New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in the month of November. Additionally, the Aggies have failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. And they have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. After their upset win last Saturday, New Mexico State looks due for a letdown against a surging BYU team looking to improve their resume for bowl season. Lay the points with BYU.

Tony George

Nebraska vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan -3½

Nebraska may have in fact got the award for "Class Act" of the year last week in Happy Valley, PA, with a pre game walkout to mid field to meet with a wounded Penn State team to not only take a knee in prayer, but to have NU's own coach Ron Brown give an inspired pregame talk about the victims in a firey prayer. As always, regardless of the those who dislike NU football, there is no denial of the class of the program over the years, the history of both those storied programs steeped in tradition with legendary head coaches past and present. The Huskers won a hard fought game 17-14 after jumping out to 17-0 lead and then hanging on late. This week, another roadie in a must win game in front of 100,000 fans wearing gold and blue. Not an easy task.

I am not sold on the Huskers against a good defense. I have not been all year. I am also not sold on the Huskers defense, especially without Crick. QB Taylor Martinez is not bankable and totally erratic at times and playing from behind is not his forte, neither is throwing to win. Michigans QB Robinson is much out of the same mold but I feel is slightly more talented when forced to throw. I think the offenses balance out, but that is not where this game is going to be won and lost. You could think special teams and turnovers will play a role, as field position and points will be at a premium, and that also plays into it. It is the Defense of Michigan that is the difference maker here.

I only harken back to the game film of Nebraska against a good Big 10 defense on the road at Wisconsin to prove my point there. Need I say more? The Huskers are banged up on both sides of the ball, and in their big wins against two Big 10 opponents worth talking about, Michigan State was coming off a miracle and emotional win against Wisconsin and were in Lincoln, and Penn State, well we all know the story there. I have not discounted the fact that this is Michigan team is no juggernaught on offense, but a home field advantage and a crushing defense that can shut down Martinez and Burkhead on the ground, is just to hard to ignore.

While an avid Husker fan through and through, this Las Vegas Line stuff is BUSINESS. You see the line climbing from the opening line of 2.5 to 4 as of Wednesday. Yet I see the public money is on Nebraska from a percentage basis. That is an indication the sharp money is on Michigan folks. Back to back road games for the Huskers, and as much as I would like to see them win this one, and hope Michigan State loses so they have a shot at the division crown, I feel neither of those scenario's occur Saturday. This is one time I hope I am wrong, but fear I will not be. Home field worth 3 points here and I feel overall Michigan a TD plus better in this one.

Sam Martin

Colorado State at TCU
Play: Colorado State

Impressive win by TCU last week to upset Boise State, but we'll fade the Horned Frogs here in a massive letdown spot after that big victory, and take the generous points with Colorado State. We don't have many good things to say about Colorado State, but this is a huge overlay on TCU, and this pointspread of more than 30 is curious considering TCU has been held to anywhere from 27-38 points in five of their last six games. Now with a bad motivational spot TCU would have to basically shutout the Rams in order to cover this number, and we don't see that happening. Take the points with CSU and hold on!

Jim Feist

Clemson vs. Memphis
Take: Clemson -11½

Marshall (4-6 SU/6-3-1 ATS) is playing hard for Coach Doc Holliday, 2-2 the last four games with the losses to powerhouses Houston and Tulsa. With only two games left and a home game on deck -- they have a shot to avoid a losing season. The offense averages 205.6 yards passing behind freshman QB Rakeem Cato (10 TDs, 7 INTs). The Thundering Herd is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. They face an awful Memphis (2-8 SU/2-7 ATS) squad that is allowing 35.4 ppg and is 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 games overall. The Tigers have dropped 18 of 19 C-USA games and 17 of their last 19 overall. And who cares about home field? The road team is 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 meetings between these teams. Play Marshall!

Marc Lawrence

Western Kentucky @ North Texas
PICK: North Texas

Look at what we have here the Toppers going out as road favorites! Considering they’ve been favored three times in their entire FBS life (lost all three games SU as home chalk), it’s called ‘catching up with the Jones’ which is the linemaker’s way of saying he’s now on to Western Kentucky. We understand, we simply don’t agree. WKU is one game back of the lead in the Sun Belt and needs a win here or next week at home against Troy to claim bowl-eligibility. Given the fact they will be laying points in both games, we’ll now jump off our money-train and take a hard look at the opposition. As we alluded to last week on these pages, the Eagles can (and feel they will) claim bowl-eligibility with wins in their final two games of the campaign. Regardless of their success, there is no refuting the fact that the Mean Green love playing in their new venue at Apogee Stadium where they are 3-1 SU and ATS (only loss came to the high-powered Houston Cougars). The hosts also have a lock on this series recently, going 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS the last four get-togethers. Looks like the wrong team is favored here. We recommend a 1-unit play on North Texas.

Matt Fargo

Nebraska vs. Michigan
Play: Over 51

Michigan and Nebraska square off in a big game in the Big Ten Legends Division and this has the makings of a big defensive battle. Or does it. Judging by recent results on both sides, we will most definitely have a low scoring game but I think it is just the opposite. Michigan has gone under the total in four straight games and only one of those games came within a possession of going over the total. That has forced the linesmakers to adjust this total much lower than it should be. Not to be outdone, Nebraska has also gone under the total in four straight games with similar results as only one of those games came within a possession of going over the total. That made it even more of a foregone conclusion for the linesmakers to drop this number. The similarities with both scenarios of these runs of unders has to do with the matchups involved. This is not the case this week as both of these offenses have the capabilities to have some big plays against the opposing defenses. The Huskers have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, and no one is more elusive than Denard Robinson. He is coming off his worst offensive game of the season where he registered only 122 total yards of offense against Illinois so we will see a big recovery from him here. Nebraska is a solid defensive team that is ranked 36th in the nation overall but take away games against Chattanooga (FCS), Minnesota (111th in total offense) and Michigan St. (coming off huge win) and the rest of the numbers stink. The Wolverines defense has been sensational this season and the stop unit is getting almost more press than Robinson but is it justified? It certainly has improved but it has not been tested a whole lot. The two best offenses the Wolverines have faced have been Notre Dame (34th) and Northwestern (27th) (not counting Western Michigan since it was not a full game) and the defense allowed 513 and 438 yards respectively, the two highest totals of the season. Nebraska will be the third best defense Michigan will see. Based on these two breakdowns, we should see the offenses have a lot of success here. The lone issue is turnovers as a turnover deep in the opponents side of the field will hurt because of the majority of running plays that will be called. Nebraska is 4-1 to the over in its last five games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its last game while Michigan is 11-5 to the over in its last 16 games after gaining less than 170 yards passing in it last game. Big plays on both sides push this one over. 3* Over Nebraska Cornhuskers/Michigan Wolverines

Steve Merril

Texas Tech @ Missouri
PICK: Missouri -18

Missouri comes into this game with some good momentum after their huge win over Texas last week. The Tigers will now host a reeling Texas Tech team that is clearly on our play-against list right now. Missouri’s offense has found their stride as of late; the Tigers are averaging 466 yards of total offense over their last three games, including 230 yards per game on the ground while averaging over 5 yards per rush. Last week’s win over Texas gives Missouri the lift they need as they move into the latter part of the season looking to win back-to-back games for the first time this year. And they get the perfect opponent to accomplish that as the Red Raiders are in a total state of disarray coming into this game.

Since their big upset win over Oklahoma in Norman, Texas Tech has played abysmal football. The Red Raiders have lost their last three games by a combined score of 159-33. When Texas Tech suffered their blowout loss to Iowa State on October 29th, it was mentioned in this newsletter that it was a sign that things were going to go downhill fast for the Red Raiders. In their last 3 blowout losses, Texas Tech has allowed an unbelievable 53 points per game on defense while their offense has put up a paltry 11 points per game. They allowed those three opponents to rush for 330 yards per game while giving up an average of over 6 yards per rush. The Red Raiders have also been gashed through the air as they’ve allowed a whopping 10 yards per pass attempt over their last three games as well.

Missouri’s offense will be able to score at will in this game. The Tigers have been well-balanced all season as they are averaging over 200 yards on the ground and through the air. With Texas Tech’s defense giving up 512 yards or more in their last four games, and 34 points or more in their last eight games, Missouri’s 33 points per game offense will go up and down the field in this game. Texas Tech is a pure fade right now so we’ll lay the points with Missouri as we expect them to hand the Red Raiders their fourth consecutive blowout loss.

James Patrick Sports

Virginia vs. Florida State

The Seminoles have won five straight games though none of the wins have come against winning teams. Virginia is quietly (7-3) and still controls its destiny in the ACC Coastal, getting a chance to face Virginia Tech next week. That game won’t be meaningful in the standings unless the Cavaliers win this week however. Cavaliers are (6-2) ATS in their last (8) games as a road underdog of (10.5) or greater. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday College Football complimentary selection in ACC action is Virginia Cavaliers).

Teddy Covers

Nebraska @ Michigan
PICK: Michigan -3.5

Nebraska is an injury riddled mess in the trenches right now. The Cornhuskers offensive guards at Penn State last week? Two walk-on’s and zero backups. Tight end Ben Cotton is hurt as well. The situation doesn’t look much better this week – this Huskers offensive front is limping towards the finish line of the regular season. On defense, Nebraska has already lost nose tackles Jared Crick and Thad Randle with season ending injuries, and their backup, Chase Rome, is less than 100% with a lingering hamstring injury.

All of this is very bad news for the Huskers against a Michigan defense that has improved by leaps and bounds under first year coordinator Greg Mattison. The numbers don’t lie. In the final year of the RichRod era in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines finished #110 in the nation in scoring defense, #108 in total defense, #95 against the run and #112 against the pass. With basically the same caliber of personnel, Michigan’s defense this year is #37 in scoring, #17 overall, #41 against the run and #22 against the pass. No surprise that Brady Hoke’s squad has been a consistent moneymaker for their supporters this season, including a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS mark at the Big House.

Michigan has outscored the opposition by a 162-70 score in the second half of their ten previous games this season, with their staff consistently making good adjustments at halftime. Meanwhile, Nebraska was annihilated in their lone previous road test against a balanced offense, losing 48-17 at Wisconsin. At the current number of -3.5, my opinion supporting Michigan isn’t as strong as it would have been had the line stayed at -3 or less. But even at the current number, the Wolverines are worthy of a small wager on Saturday. Take Michigan.

Andrew Lange

New Mexico State +22.5

I've backed New Mexico State on multiple occasions this season and had fairly good results. The Aggies are much improved across the board and have been competitive in nearly all of their games this season. They have two competent quarterbacks in Matt Christian and Travaughn Colwell and enough of a run game (141.2 ypg) to keep opposing teams honest. BYU may be 7-3 but can hardly be considered an elite level team. Last week they crushed Idaho 42-7 but the Vandals were off a rare victory and showed absolutely no effort from the opening whistle. The Cougars are back with Jake Heaps at quarterback after Riley Nelson was hurt last game. They are both essentially the same player (Nelson more of a runner) in terms of production but the constant shuffling has created inconsistency and lack of continuity with the offense. And prior to the win over Idaho, BYU hadn’t posted a blowout win despite a handful of mediocre New Mexico State-esque opponents on the slate. The Aggies still have a shot at the postseason and are more than capable of going up to Provo and hanging around for 60 minutes.

Dave Price

1 Unit Penn State +7

Penn State University has been hit with a whirlwind of negative attention, but the players on the field still have plenty to play for. Expect the Nittany Lions to get the cover Saturday afternoon as they take Ohio State right down to the wire. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO ST) off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, are 23-3 ATS since 1992. The play against team has been favored by an average of 6.3 points in this situation but has lost by an average of 2.2 points. Take Penn State.

Scott Spreitzer

Penn State at Ohio State University
Prediction: Ohio State University

Penn State was certainly an overrated 8-1 team heading into last week's home game against Nebraska. The Nittany Lions lost 17-14, but they're fortunate to have faced a limited offense or the final margin would have been much worse. Penn State's offense has been pretty bad and one-dimensional all season. Last week, they gained 375 yards on 4.8 yards per play, which was actually 18 yards more than their seasonal average. Penn State isn't horrible on the ground, but it's all they have been able to do. A team that can only do one thing is not going to intimidate the Buckeye defense. Yes, Ohio State is off a tough loss at Purdue, but the Buckeye stop unit is about as balanced as it gets. They're 15th overall, ranked 28th against the pass and 27th against the run. They're also on a 17-4 ATS run at home where they have scored at least 33 points in four of six games this season. Meanwhile, Penn State checks-in on a 2-9-1 ATS slide, overall. I'm laying the points with the Buckeyes on Saturday.