Jim Feist
Western Kentucky at North Texas
Play: Western Kentucky -2.5
The WK Hilltoppers are suddenly 5-1 in the Sun Belt Conference. Western Kentucky (5-5 SU, 8-2 ATS) started with a 14-3 loss to Kentucky and had a surprising win over Middle Tennessee State, 36-33 in double OT. They run a West Coast offense behind junior QB Kawaun Jakes and talented senior RB Bobby Rainey (1,649 yds last season) has 1,151 yards and has topped 100 yards in 13 of the last 15 games. They are playing fairly well now and clearly motivated. The Hilltoppers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 conference games, coming off a 42-9 loss at No. 1 LSU it will be good to get back into Sun Belt play this weekend! North Texas (4-6) has a soft defense that allows 33 ppg. They had a 30-10 loss at UL Lafayette with just 232 total yards, and the Mean Green is 10-24 ATS in their last 34 games on turf. Play Western Kentucky!
Chip Chirimbes
Boise State at San Diego State
Play: San Diego State +19
Boise State faces the same problem as Stanford as their BCS dreams were dashed with a heartbreaking loss last week to TCU and teams in this position don't fare well their next time out. The Broncos have had only four pressure games in the last two years and lost two of them and the BCS is smiling. Meanwhile, San Diego State is a bowl team receiving a bunch of points at home and can put up enough points to catch an emotionally drained team when they are down. Ronnie Hillman (1278 yards) is the real deal and San Diego State gets the cash.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Tennessee Volunteers +1.5
Vandy, who is 0-3 away from home this season, should not be laying points on the road against a hungry Tennessee team it has lost to 5 straight times. In fact, the Commodores have only defeated the Vols once in the last 28 meetings. Motivation will not be an issue for the Vols, who can still become bowl eligible by winning their final two games against very beatable Vanderbilt and Kentucky teams. As if bowl eligibility isn't enough of a reason to put it on the Commodores, the Vols will be further motivated by the goose egg they currently have in conference play. In addition, it's senior night, when teams typically put forth a great effort to send the seniors out on a winning note in their final home game. In addition to Tennessee's motivational edges, it will benefit from the return of QB Tyler Bray, who was having an outstanding season with 1,579 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions before breaking his thumb. Vandy is improved, but I don't think it has closed the gap as much as this line indicates. The Vols have won the last three meetings in this series by double digits, including a 14-point victory on the road last season. Also, Vandy has struggled mightily in its three road games where it has been outscored by an average of 27 to 8. The Commodores are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. The Volunteers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.0 points or less. Tennessee has won nine consecutive November home games against SEC opponents. We'll take Tennessee.
Steve Janus
Purdue +3
The Iowa Hawkeyes are 0-3 on the road this season, including that horrible loss at Minnesota when they were right in the thick of things in the Big Ten Legends Division. Iowa quarterback James Vandenberg has never won a road start in his career, and I have a good feeling that streak is going to continue against the Boilermakers.
Purdue comes in off an impressive 26-23 overtime win over Ohio State, and need to win this game to reach the 6 win mark and become bowl eligible.
The Hawkeyes defense was torched for 37 points and 443 yards of offense against a bad Michigan State offense last week at home, and I can't see their stop unit playing much better against Purdue. Iowa is 64th against the run (159.1 ypg) and 76th against the pass (239.3 ypg). I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Boilermakers led this game the entire way.
Purdue is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog, and 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Iowa Hawkeyes -2
This is a letdown spot for Purdue following its big upset win over Ohio State, and it's a bounce back spot for Iowa following its disappointing performance against Michigan State. Iowa struggled against Michigan State because it wasn't able to run the football. It shouldn't have any trouble running the ball this week against a Purdue defense that ranks 93rd in the country against the run with 188.3 yards allowed per game. The Boilermakers have allowed an average of 288.7 rushing yards in their last three games. Iowa had averaged 189.5 rushing yards in its four games before Michigan State. Expect Iowa's Marcus Coker to have a big game on the ground in a winning effort Saturday. The Hawkeyes are 27-9 ATS in their last 36 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and 32-12-1 ATS in their last 45 games following a SU loss. The Boilermakers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. Take Iowa.
Larry Ness
Oklahoma vs Baylor
Pick: Baylor
Oklahoma’s inexplicable 41-38 home loss to Texas Tech on October 22 dropped the Sooners eight spots to No. 11 in the AP top-25 and to No. 9 in the BCS standings. However, the Sooners are back in the BCS title-game ‘picture’ with losses by Alabama, Stanford and Boise State in recent weeks. Following that shocking home loss to Texas Tech, the Sooners responded with a 41-point win in Manhattan over then-unbeaten Kansas State and a 41-25 win over Texas A&M (led 41-10 in the 4th). It’s possible, if things break right, Oklahoma is again in position for a spot in the BCS title game. The Sooners will likely need some help but first things first, they’ll have to “win out,” including beating current No. 2 Oklahoma State in Stillwater on December 3. However, the Sooners first have to beat Baylor in Waco. Historically, the record tells us the Sooner have never lost to the Bears (20-0 all-time), including 10-0 here in Waco. Considering just the games these two schools have played against each other since both joined the Big 12, Oklahoma has won all 15 meetings with each of the last five and 10 of the last 12 wins coming by at least 26 points. The average score for all 15 games has been 40-15. Should it really be any different here? After all, Baylor’s defense has been a sieve, allowing 458.2 YPG (110th) and 36.0 PPG (108th). However, after already losing their top RB Dominique Whaley a few weeks ago for the season (ankle), the Sooners also lost record-breaking WR Broyles to a knee injury (also for the entire season) vs Texas A&M. Then one has to take into account what Baylor QB Robert Griffin III has done in 2011. He’s completing 74.2% of his passes for an average of 343.7 YPG with 29 TDs and only five INTs. Baylor’s a perfect 5-0 at home while averaging 49.0 PPG with Griffin throwing 17 TDs without a single interception in 152 attempts. One of these days (years?), Baylor’s going to get a “signature win.” Is this the game? I’m taking the points vs the guy I call “Big Game Blob.”
Sean Murphy
California @ Stanford
Pick: California +17.5
Some of the line value is gone from earlier in the week, but I still see this as a favorable spot for Cal.
We successfully faded Stanford last week, as the Cardinal suffered their first ATS loss of the season. Going back to last season, Stanford went on to lose two more games in a row ATS following its first (and only) SU loss of the season. That was when they had a master motivator in Jim Harbaugh at the helm.
Sure, the Cardinal managed to score 30 points in a losing effort last Saturday, but it was by no means a sharp offensive effort. Andrew Luck completed just 27-of-41 passes and threw a pair of interceptions, clearly missing one of his favorite targets, WR Chris Owusu. He's not expected to return this week, nor is TE Zach Ertz. Without that duo, this offense hasn't looked nearly as in sync.
Maybe the Cardinal will lean a little more on their ground game this week, but it's worth noting that Cal has been tough against the run, giving up just 3.5 yards per rush this season.
The Bears are coming off back-to-back wins, both SU and ATS, they're first ATS winning streak of the season. They haven't just been winning - they've been dominating. Over their last two contests, the Bears have outgained the opposition by 345 total yards.
Yes, Cal will be taking a major step up in class this week, but it's nothing it hasn't done before. We don't have to go back very far to find the last time the Bears pulled off an upset here on The Farm. Almost two years ago to the day, Cal won 34-28 as a seven-point underdog. In fact, the Bears have taken seven of the last nine meetings in this series.
Stanford watched its BCS bubble burst in last Saturday's loss to Oregon. I'm not convinced the Cardinal will be able to get right back up for an opponent they handled 48-14 a year ago. While they should win this game, I won't be surprised if its much closer than expected. Take California.
John Ryan
LSU at Mississippi
Prediction: LSU
5* graded play on LSU as they take on Mississippi in SEC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. LSU is not likely to stumble against a vastly inferior opponent in the Rebels and I do believe that LSU will get out to fast start and could be leading by 28 or more points at the half. LSU needs only worry about winning games and rod not need style points to maintain their BCS No. 1 ranking. They do, however, still need to execute and be completely focused, and the LSU coaching staff will make certain there is no letdown in this game. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that LSU will win this game by 31 or more points. The simulator projects that the Tiger defense will allow 14 or fewer points, allow less than 100 yards rushing, and allow less than 250 total yards in Rebel offense. In past games where LSU?s defense has attained these individual levels of prowess the results have been stellar. LSU is a solid 5-1 ATS this season, 7-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 47-23 ATS since 1992 when allowing 50 to 100 rushing yards in a game. When LSU has allowed 14 or fewer points they are 5-3 ATS this season, 12-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 72-25 ATS since 1992. In past games here LSU has allowed 250 or fewer opponent yards, they have attained a 4-3 ATS mark this season, 9-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 48-22 ATS mark since 1992. The simulator shows that LSU has a high probability exceeding 88% that they will score 28 or more points and will rush for 250 to 300 yards. IN past games where they have attained these lofty offensive benchmarks it has been good news for LSU backers. In past games where the Tigers have rushed for 250 to 300 yards they are 4-1 ATS the past three seasons and 21-8 ATS since 1992. In past games where they scored 28 or more points they are 5-3 ATS this season, 12-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 76-40 ATS since 1992. Now for the bad news in similar projections and subsequent roles for the Rebels. In past games where they have allowed 28 or more points the Rebels are 2-4 ATS this season, 5-11 ATS the past three seasons, and 20-60 ATS since 1992. More specifically, when they have allowed 35 to 41 points inclusive they have posted an 0-1 ATS mark this season, 2-3 mark the past three seasons, and 4-23 ATS mark since 1992. When they have allowed an opponent to gain between 250 and 300 rushing yards they have gone 0-2 ATS this season and 2-11 ATS since 1992. In past games where they have gained 250 or fewer offensive yards, the Rebels are just 1-3 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 13-31 ATS since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-8 ATS for 81% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points after two or more consecutive straight up wins with the game taking place in weeks 10 through 13. Of the 41 games played based on the criteria of this system and impressive 23 of them or 56%, covered the spread by seven or more points. LSU has one remaining test and it will be next week in their final home game of the regular season against No. 6 Arkansas. I am confident that the Tigers will not get caught looking ahead to this game and have to battle their way to a win in the second half of this game. The coaching staff will want to get a big lead and then even when they replace the starters, the second unit is a better squad than the Rebels first units. Take LSU.
Rob Vinciletti
Navy vs. San Jose State
Play: Navy -5½
Navy has won and covered 7 of the last 8 on the road off a dog win , while San Jose St is a paltry 2-11 straight up with just 3 covers vs teams that are .500 or less and 4-12 off an ats loss. There is also a solid system in this game that plays against certain home dogs in their final home game if both teams are under.500 and the opponent comes in off back to back wins. Navy is better on both sides of the ball and San Jose may have a tough time with a vaunted Navy ground game that averages nearly 320 rush yards per game. Look for Navy to get the win and cover.
Joseph D'Amico
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas
Play: Arkansas -13
At 9-1, Arkansas is striking fear into much of the SEC. The Razorbacks can still win the SEC West and go to the SEC Championship game and do have an outside shout at the BCS Title game. The Razorbacks have won and covered the L2 meetings over the Bulldogs. Arkansas ranks 1st and 2nd in the SEC in red zone "D" and "O". They are loaded with playmakers. The Hog's are 11-0 ATS as an SEC host. Miss State is out-gunned here. They don't have the talent to match up on either side of the ball. They score just 13.0 PPG vs. SEC foes, hence their 1-5 SEC record. The home team is 8-1 ATS their L9 meetings. The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS their L4 games played at the Razorbacks while the Razorbacks are 15-6 ATS their L21 games played overall. Take Arkansas.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.C. STATE +8/+264 over Clemson
Clemson clinched the ACC Atlantic Division with last week's comeback win against Wake Forest, rendering this week's tilt at NC State more meaningful for the Wolfpack than for the Tigers. Clemson could be short-handed for this one, as the Tigers' best offensive lineman is out and superstar freshman receiver Sammy Watkins is so banged up he'll be a game-time decision. Quarterback Tajh Boyd and the Tigers have been turnover-prone lately, committing seven in the past two games to go along with a handful of near interceptions that opponents couldn't quite pull down. That's bad news against an aggressive Wolfpack outfit that leads the nation in picks. N.C. State's defense doesn't just force turnovers; it's been playing total shutdown ball lately, blanking the North Carolina Tar Heels two weeks ago and then holding the Boston College Eagles to negative total yardage in the second half of last week's loss. This defense had high expectations coming into the year, but it endured an injury-plagued first half of the season. With several of those key players back on the field, the Wolfpack are playing the best defense of the Tom O'Brien era. O'Brien's team has shown a propensity to stumble when favored but plays its best with its back against the wall. State's season is on the line Saturday since the 5-5 Pack -- having played two FCS teams this year -- must win out to earn a postseason bid. Dabo Swinney has lost three games outright as a road favorite already in his short career, and we'll happily take more than a TD at home with a decent Wolfpack bunch in a must-win spot against a Clemson team that made its bones last week. We’ll also play the Wolfpack on the money line. Play: #336 N.C State +8 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2). Play: #336 N.C State +264 (Risking 1 unit).
MICHIGAN –3½ over Nebraska
The Cornhuskers played their best game of the season last week at Penn State, but we continue to be unimpressed by the current regime. Since Taylor Martinez became the starting quarterback, Nebraska has put the ball on the ground more than any other team in the nation. The defense is very coverage-oriented, built to stop Big 12 offenses but struggles with both mobile quarterbacks and solid downhill tailback attacks. Michigan neither recruited nor developed players well on defense during the Rich Rodriguez/Greg Robinson era, and this unit is under-talented by the program's usual standards. The roster contains maybe three players who could start for the defense that the Wolverines will be fielding three years from now, which makes the quick transformation that Brady Hoke and coordinator Greg Mattison have wrought all the more impressive. There haven't been many interceptions or tackles for loss, but overall there's lots to like about a Michigan defense that's really starting to come together down the stretch. The Wolves can slow a Nebraska attack that's been hit hard by injuries to key blockers, and facing Denard Robinson in practice each week is excellent preparation for what the Maize and Blue will see out of Martinez. Robinson and emerging star Fitzgerald Toussaint can keep the chains moving against the Huskers, who will be taxed by a schedule that calls for back-to-back plane trips to huge, unfamiliar stadiums after last week’s unforgettable and highly emotional tilt at Penn State. Play: #372 Michigan –3½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Penn State +6½ over OHIO STATE
6½-points is an enormous spot in any game with a total under 39 points, and it's way too much for a one-dimensional offense to give the Big Ten's best defensive team. The return of wideout DeVier Posey is a boost for the Buckeyes, but they'll need more than one man to cure a passing attack that hasn't managed more than 143 yards all season on a team from outside the MAC. The Nittany Lions are a different bunch of guys than they were 10 days ago. They are representing a lot more than football and the university and have been somewhat overwhelmed by all the support they’ve been given not only across the U.S. but worldwide. It was an emotional week before last week’s game against Nebraska and they should be more focused this week with a full week of preparation with new their new coaches. Expect the Lions to play their hearts out this week and perhaps pull off the upset. Play: #377 Penn State +6½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
California +18½ over STANFORD
If you don’t have an account with them, the recommendation is to still play Cal +17 or 17½, depending on where you do your shopping. What we do know is that the Cardinal confidence was badly shaken last week after Oregon made them look like an unranked, run of the mill football team. Oh, and when is The Big Game not actually the big game? When it's sandwiched between a season-defining loss and a home date with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. This is too much wood for deflated Stanford to lay against a Cal team with a respectable defense, solid ground game and wide-outs that can exploit the Cardinal's biggest weakness, much like the Ducks did over and over and over again. Much of Stanford’s 30 points last week came when the game was out of reach and while the Golden Bears aren’t the Cardinal, they’re well balanced on both sides of the ball and with a little magic could put a big scare into Stanford. Play: #369 California (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
ARKANSAS –13 over Mississippi St.
Mississippi State is a tough out for almost everyone but this year that's all the Bulldogs are. This is a visitor that can’t move five yards against quality defenses and the Razorbacks certainly qualify. Arkansas is a rising power that's been playing its best football of the season in all three phases lately. MSU is going to have to rely on a huge defensive effort but that defense will be on the field way too long and way too often to stay within this range. The Bulldogs do not have the horses to trade blows with the Hogs for four quarters. Play: #396 Arkansas –13 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
EZWINNERS
Georgia Bulldogs -31
After opening the season with two straight losses against Boise State and South Carolina the Georgia Bulldogs have won nine straight games and a win here over the Wildcats wraps up the SEC East title and a trip to the SEC championship game. Georgia's numbers on both sides of the ball have been impressive and they should build on those numbers against a Kentucky team that is one of the weak links of the SEC conference. Kentucky has been one of the worst offensive teams in the nation and should not put up many scores against a Georgia defense that has been playing very well. The Kentucky defense has done a decent job, but they will not be able to contain the Georgia offense and they will also get wore down late in the game from being on the field so much.
JR O'Donnell
Arkansas -13.5
The Mississippi State Bulldogs visiting the Arkansas Razorbacks at 3:30 PM EST. The home team is on a 8-1 ATS tear in this series, but Arkansas has dominated 14-2 SU, and have never lost a game at home to the Bulldogs 8-0-1!. Arkansas wants the win to improve their standin s in the BCS bowl opportunity. Sooie Pig QB Wilson averages 285 yds/g (62% completions) with "18" TD and only"5' INT. In contrast MSU utilizes a two QB system with Relf (runner) and Russell (passer), and it looked for a couple of weeks it was working, but against BAMA it generated very little an only "7" points. They had "12" yards rushing, and a measly 131 total yards. This is the Razorbacks third straight home game, and MSU plays Mississippi next week (rival). Hogs are 4-0 SU/ATS in their home finales, while MSU is 2-11 vs. the SEC Western Division, and their only wins have come against Mississippi. ARK does have LSU on deck in Baton Rouge, but that just makes this game that much more important to get to "10" wins, and share the SEC West title. Coach Bobby Petrino is 9-0 ATS as a conference home favorite, covering by an average of "12" ppg. and is on a sweet 20-3 ATS roll at home.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
ARKANSAS -13 over Mississippi State: Even thnough the hogs have LSU up next I don't see this as a flat spot for them as they know they must win out to get a share of the SEC West title. Arkansas comes in as one of the hottest teams in the country as they have won their last 6 games in a row and have done so by an average of 15.7 ppg. Arkansas has really played well at home this year going 5-1 ATS, while outscoring their opponents by 27 ppg and outgaining them by 131 ypg in the process. The Bulldogs have not played that bad on the road as they are 2-2 and have outscored tyheir opponents by 6 ppg, but a closer look shows that the 2 teams they beat were Kentucky and UAB and they were not really that impressive in beating those teams, while their two losses where to Georgia and a same Auburn team that Arkansas crushed 38-14 a few weeks ago. The Bulldogs have a good defense that is 40th overall (353 ypg) and 17th in points allowed (19.2 ppg), but they have only faced an offense this good (Auburn) just once this year and they allowed 41 points in that one. Today they take on an Arkansas offense that is 25th overall (456 ypg) and 13th in scoring (38.8 ppg). The Razorbacks pass offense (11th) will get a test from MSU's 14th ranked pass defense, but the Bulldogs have not seen this kind of pass offense all year long and I expect the hogs to have good sucess through the air here. On the other side of the Ball the Hogs defense has been pretty good ranking 56th overall (375 ypg), but a very solid 35th vs the pass (203 ypg) and they are 30th in points allowed (21.5 ppg). Today they will be facing an MSU offense that has put up 25.8 ppg on the year, but just 8.8 ppg in vs teams that are currently ranked in the top 25. MSU's defense hasn't really been tested this year and they won't stop this high powered Hog attack, while their own offense just doesn't have enough fire power to keep this one close. Petrino is 9-0 ATS as a conference home favorite and 20-3 ATS in his last 23 home games overall, while the host is 8-1 ATS the last 9. Hogs roll here.
4 UNIT PLAY
HOUSTON -19.5 over SMU: I have been riding houston the last few wekas and I will continue to do so here. The Cougars are just playing out of their minds right now as they have put up 60.8 ppg and have outscored their opponents by 40.7 ppg in their last 7 games since their narrow win over LA Tech. At home this team has been plain scary as they have outscored thier oponets by 27.4 ppg and have outgained them by 198 ypg. The Cougars average 448 ypg through the air at home and they average a FD every time they throw the ball (10.4 ypa). That's amazing. Why run it? LOL. They can do that as well as they average 161.8 and 5.3 ypc at home on the year. June Jones is known for jis offense, but his team hasn't played bad defensive and they are 53rd vs the pass (215.9 ypg) but they struggle on the road vs the pass allowing 248 ypg. The closest to the Houston offense that SMU has faced this year was Tulsa's and they allowed 451 total yards in a 38-7 loss. Well I will tell ya that Houston is MUCH, MUCH better than Tulsa and if they beat SMU by 31 then what will Houston do? The Cougars will not get a chance at playing in the BCS title game (Boy Houston vs Okie State would be fun huh?), but they are still playing foran undefeated year and Case Keenum is playing for the Heisman so I really expect them to play their best here, especiallyb since they have the attention of the nation, what with the ESPN cameras there for Gameday. The Cougars have outscored the Conference USA foe bay an average of 38.9 ppg and I see no reason at all why they can't win this one at least 31. The Stangs will get some points, but Houston will get a whole lot more as their quest for an undefeated year goes on.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Penn State/ Ohio State Under 39: Ok does anyone else see a 10-7 final here? It may not be that low, but I wouldn't expect to see many more than that. The Penn State offense has struugles all year as theyb have averaged just 357 ypg and 21 ppg, while they may have averaged 365 ypg vs the Big 10, but just 18.3 ppg in those games. Now the Horseshoe is note a good venue for this PSU Offense to get going as they have averaged just 12.2 ppg in their last 9 trips here and in not one of those games did they put 2o pointas on the board. Too make it even worse for Penn Sttae is the fact that the Buckeyes have the 15th overall defense (317 ypg) and the 16th ranked scoring defense (18.9 ppg). OSU is 28th vs the pass and 27th vs the run, so it will be hard for this PSU offense to get going all all. PSU is 8-2 on te year, but as you can see it is not because of their offense, but because of a defense that is 8th overall (287.2 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (12.9 ppg). Now on Offense the Buckeyes are 118th in passing, but a very nice 27th in rushing (200.2 ypg). The ground route would be the way for them to go anyway as PSU is 5th in the nation vs the pass, allowing just 167.7 ypg. Ohio State will have to run here and that will eat clock. PSU also has allowed just Here is a great set of stats. PSU is 89th in the nation in offensive yards per play (4.9), while OSU is 101st (4.8 ypp). Now on the defensive side PSU is 4th allowing just 4.1 ypp, while OSU is 20th, allowing just 4.7 ypp. That right there tells that there aren't many big plays either by these team or that these teams allow them. Both schools will have to take their time and work their way down the field if they hope to score. So as i said at the beggining, this really has a feel of a 10-7 game, but I will say that between 24 and 30 points will be scored in this one and that is still well below this line.
Boise State/ San Diego State Over 56.5: The Over is 10-1 when the Aztecs are dogs of 10.5 or greater, while the OU is 5-0 in Boise's last 5 as a favorite of 10.5 or higher. The last few weeks i've gone under in some Boise plays, because i feel that they have an underrated defense, but that defense has been exposed a bit lately. In the last 3 games the Broncos have allowed 27.7 ppg and 411 ypg and they will have their hands full tonight vs a SDSU squad that has averaged 26.7 ppg and 450 ypg overall and 33.4 ppg and 462 ypg at home on the year. The Aztec defense has been solid this year as they have alowed just 22.1 ppg overall and 21.8 ppg at home, but this is an angry Boise team that will look to put a ton of points on the board and with an offense that averages 48.6 ppg and 524 ypg on the road this year they should be able to put up a ton of points. I feel that both defenses are in for a long night as this one hits 60 points with ease.
2 UNIT PLAYS
GEORGIA -30.5 over Kentucky: The Dawgs have the situation edge as this is their 3rd home game in a row, while the Cats are on their 2nd road game in a row, plus Georgia has a big motivational edge as they kjnow a win here will put them in the SEC title game. They will not over look this team. Last week Kentucky was crushed by a weak Vanderbilt team 38-8, while Georgia was crushing a good Auburn squad 45-7. The teams have played 5 common opponents and UGA is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in those games and they have outgained those 5 teams by an average of 128 yog, while Kentucky has gone 1-4 SU & ATS in those games and have been outgained by 210 ypg in the process. Georgia may be playing the second best ball in the league right and they will not let a bad bunch of Cats keep this one close. Georgia by 35+
Florida Atlantic/ Troy Over 48.5: Niether offense is any good this year as FAU is 120th in scoring (12.2 ppg), while Troy is 95th in scoring (22.6 ppg), but this pick is not about bad offenses, but because of two of the worst defenses in the nation. The Owls are 62nd in total defense (384.9 ypg), but 107th in points allowed (35.7 ppg), plus they come in with the worst yards per point number in the nation at 10.8. Now on the other sideline we have a Troy defense that is just horrendous as they have allowed 478.4 ypg (114th) and 34.6 ppg (105th). They have been equally bad vs the pass (106th) and the run (104) and they should allow this FAU to break out of their offensive doldrums. Let us also note that Troy has allowed 502 ypg and 33 ppg vs Sun Belt opponents this yera, while the Owls have allowed 375.5 ypg and 34.3 ppg in conference play. This is not about the offense, but both of these struggling offenses, should get their fair share of points vs two vsry weak defenses. 50+ easily here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Kansas +31 over TEXAS A&M: As bad as Knasas nas been on defense they allow just 3 ppg more in conference play than the Aggies do. I realize Kansas has a bad defense, but i don't think any team with a defense as bad as the Aggies should be a 30+ point favorite. Jayhawks keep this one around 3 td's only.
Virginia +17.5 over FLORIDA STATE: The cavs are quietly having a fine year and they come in on a 3 game roll, which includes wins at Maryland and Miami. The Noles are off a hard fought win vs Miami and they have their showdown with in-state rival Florida on deck. Cavs should keep this one close.
Bob Balfe
Virginia +17 over Florida State
Florida State is thin on the offensive line and I just do not think they should be favored by this much in any game until they get healthier. If Virginia does not allow a special teams touchdown to Reid I see them actually having a shot at an outright win. FSU played really bad last week and were lucky to get by. Virginia probably has more career starts on defense than any other team in the nation. This game could get interesting. Take the points with Virginia.