Scott Rickenbach
Colorado St. @ TCU
PICK: TCU -34
The Rams are off of a tight home loss to San Diego State Saturday. Those types of defeats are often the toughest to bounce back from and Colorado State is now in a role in which they've not fared well at all. The Rams are on a long-term run of 2-8 ATS in games where they are a road dog of 21.5 points or more. 2011 has not been good to Colorado State either as they are an ugly 2-7 ATS on the season. Saturday the Rams are facing a Horned Frogs team that is fired up and brimming with confidence after their upset of the Broncos at Boise State on Saturday. Though one may be inclined to fade TCU off of a big win, note that the Frogs are 13-7 ATS the last three seasons when they are off of a win against a conference rival. Additionally, the long-term run for Texas Christian off of a conference win is a solid 55-36 ATS! The Horned Frogs will run all over the Rams porous run defense. Additionally, the Horned Frogs impressive defensive work at home (allowing an average of just 10 points per game against weak foes at home this season) will absolutely continue here. Add it all up and that spells B-L-O-W-O-U-T in this one! Consider a small play on TCU minus the big points Saturday.
Jack Jones
Florida State -17
Florida State is absolutely rolling. They are finally playing up to their potential, and there's no question in my mind that this is one of the best teams in the country right now. They were supposed to compete for a national championship coming into the season, but injuries put a damper on that. They are now healthy.
The Seminoles are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Backers have made a ton of money backing them of late. Four of their last five wins have come by 25 or more points.
Virginia has been solid against the spread of late as well, but they are just 2-11 ATS after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. The Cavaliers are also 10-23 ATS in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992. Also, Virginia is 4-14 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992.
SPORTS WAGERS
Phoenix +129 over BUFFALO
The Sabres have won six of their last eight games but a close look reveals that those six wins came against Ottawa twice, Calgary, Montreal, Winnipeg and Carolina last night. Three of those six wins also came in OT or shootout, thus, the Sabres could be on a 3-5 streak as opposed to a 6-2 streak. In at least half of those wins, the Sabres were the second best team on the ice. One could argue that Buffalo is way off these days. This was a team that used to play with a chip on its shoulders. They always scratched and clawed and played hard. They had an “us versus the world” attitude because they were always on a very limited budget and used role players and other teams castoffs among the talent they developed within. New owner Terry Pegula stepped in late last year and insisted he would stop short of nothing to get the Sabres a championship. In the off-season, Buffalo went out and spent some money and while the team has not changed that much in terms of personnel, the attitude or work ethic has. The Sabres look beatable every night and will now play its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs after another unconvincing win last night. If you’re not 100% against the Coyotes, you’re going to get beat. Phoenix plays with heart and guts every shift of every game and they’re also in a favorable spot. The Coyotes can smell an opportunity and seize it and this is one of those opportunities. Play: Phoenix +129 (Risking 2 units).
Washington -½ +108 over TORONTO
Fading the Maple Leafs has been a cash cow over their past six games and there’s no reason to stop now. The Leafs are coming off a decent effort in Nashville but once again, defensive mistakes hurt them and Ron Wilson’s arrogance didn’t help. With three minutes left in the game and the Leafs down 3-1, Wilson sends out a line that consisted of Jay Rosehill, Philippe Dupuis and Dave Steckel as if to say, “If you other guys can’t score, maybe these guys can”. The general public may not be aware of these things but the other players on the bench are. Can you imagine what they’re thinking with that trio on the ice when they need goals with three minutes to go? That makeshift line has 35 career goals in 478 games played. The Leafs played hard but the coach stuck it to them again and without sounding redundant, a lackluster effort could be in the cards tonight after that lame move by Ron Wilson (he also put that same trio on the ice after the Preds scored an empty netter just to rub it in a little). Players don’t respond well to crap like that and it’s no mystery as to why the Leafs have no shot of long-term success with this clown behind the bench. The Caps have dropped three in a row and will come in here in a foul mood and ready to step up its game on Hockey Night in Canada. Leafs are becoming more and more beatable every day. Play: Washington -½ +108 (Risking 2 units).
Columbus +179 over NASHVILLE
At some point the Jackets are going to win a road game and with a tag like this against a team that should never be this big a favorite, the Jackets are worthy of a play. It’s not like Columbus doesn’t have talent because they do, but a slow start has snowballed and shaky goaltending has hurt them tremendously. What we do know is that a lack of quality goaltending has cost them plenty of games in which they were the far better team. Against Minnesota on Tuesday they dominated play and outshot the Wild 45-24 but still lost 4-2. In that 4-1 loss to the Leafs a few games ago they allowed just 19 shots on net, they dominated play and lost 4-1. These are just two of many examples of the Jackets strong efforts with no rewards. Last game they switched from Steve Mason to Curtis Sanford and went into Boston and lost 2-1 in OT. While it was still a loss, they got much better goaltending and Sanford starts again. The Preds are so much more appealing in the underdog role. They just aren’t good enough to be laying elite team prices and that’s precisely what they’re laying here. They’re good but they’re also beatable and offensively challenged and that makes them a huge risk laying this kind of weight. Play: Columbus +179 (Risking 2 units).
Phil Steele
TEXAS (--9) over Kansas State
I’ve backed the Wildcats every week this year at Philsteele.com going 9-1 against the line and have used them four times here but I will play against them this week. The Longhorns lost four games last season in which they were favored and they have already gained revenge on UCLA and Iowa St. Kansas State has feasted against the conference’s weaker defenses but now face the Big 12’s top defense. The Wildcats have been outgained in seven straight games sans Kansas (FBS’ 120th-ranked defense) and get exposed this week.
TENNESSEE (+1 1/2 ) over Vanderbilt
When hosting the Commodores, the Volunteers have been a double-digit favorites every season since 1981 by an average of three TD’s. This year “big brother” is now in the insulting role of being a home underdog. Coach James Franklin earns my respect for turning the Vanderbilt program around but winning on the SEC road is a different dynamic and this year VU has been outgained by 184 ypg away from home. Tennessee has won 27 of the last 28 meetings and while the talent gap has closed, the series domination continues for at least one more season.
Scott Delaney
I've kept an eye on both of these teams, the Boise State Broncos and San Diego State Aztecs, and throughout the season I've come away with conclusions on both: Boise State has lost its killer instinct that once allowed it to mangle teams into oblivion, the way the Houston Cougars are doing this season. And San Diego State is responding nicely to first-year coach Rocky Long, served as the team's defensive coordinator before this, while establishing resiliency as the season has gone on.
The Broncos are laying far too many points in a very dangerous game for them, as they come in after losing at home to TCU last week, ending their longshot-hopes to make the BCS Title game. Of course, with Oklahoma State losing last night in overtime, to Iowa State, the Broncos have to be questioning themselves even more now. Whether that'll have a psychological effect on them, I don't know, but what I do know is they're going to have their hands full with an upset-minded Aztecs team that with one fell swoop can drop the Broncos into a third-place tie in the Mountain West Conference standings, and ultimately the No. 4 seed since they'd be tied with San Diego State.
The Aztecs aren't pretty, and don't necessarily get things done in methodical fashion - they pound out ugly wins - but what they do is get after it with an aggressive pass defense that ranks 10th in the nation. Long has always been emphatic about his defensive units, as he transformed New Mexico into a threat while head coaching there, and turned the Aztecs around as the defensive coordinator before taking over as head honcho this season.
Though San Diego State (6-3) is bowl-eligible for the second straight season, it most certainly wants to stay in the running for the league’s postseason berths, which means a high-dollar sign bowl game. I do realize Ronnie Hillman hasn't practiced this week due to a high ankle sprain, but the nation’s second-leading rusher indicated he will play against Boise State. But quarterback Ryan Lindley isn't too shabby either, and is fully capable of turning things into a vertical affair when needed. And by balancing things out, the Aztecs can control the tempo and play keep-away from Boise's high-octane offense to keep the game close.
And quite honestly, this isn't about San Diego State's offense playing keep up, it's about the defense keeping Boise at bay. This isn't the blue turf, it's in San Diego. And for the most part, this is the Aztecs' bowl game of the season in so many ways. They're a long shot to hand Boise a second-straight loss in as many weeks, but they're not going to lose by 18 points. Take the home pup.
4♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Your complimentary winner for Saturday is going to be the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, as they will steamroll the Maryland Terrapins in their ACC showdown tonight. Maryland is one of the nation’s worst Bowl Championship Series conference teams. One of the worst, not the worst. But that's good enough for me to go against them again. Imagine what Miami, Florida thinks, as it would love to get its game with the Terps back.
Wake Forest is looking to become bowl eligible, and there isn't a better opponent to do it against, than the Terrapins, who put a 62-spot on the scoreboard last season in this game. This is an entirely different campaign than the 9-4 season they enjoyed last year. Maryland has endured an injury-plagued season, which got worse last week, when starting quarterback Danny O'Brien suffered a broken left arm against Notre Dame and his season came to an end.
Wake Forest needs to win one of its last two games to become bowl eligible and this is the perfect spot to end its three-game skid, exact revenge and annihilate the struggling and dinged up Terrapins. I know Maryland has won nine of the last 12 meetings, but again, this is an entirely different season with an entirely different team.
I admit it, the numbers aren't pretty when you look at this team on paper after its three-game slide, but it's far better than Maryland, which has lost six in a row and has the 96th-ranked scoring defense in the nation. Over this six-game losing streak, the Terps are giving up an average of 37 points per game. They're also averaging 21.3 points per game in those contests. They have the 108th defense in the nation.
Maryland is 2-8 SU and ATS this season, while the favorite is 8-3 the last 11 meetings. I'll lay the points with Wake in this one.
2♦ WAKE FOREST
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is to take the truck load of points the Kansas Jayhawks are getting as they head to College Station for a date against the disappointing Texas A&M Aggies.
The reeling Aggies come into this game having dropped three in a row both straight up and against the spread, as Mike Sherman's team is now 2-8 versus the Vegas line this season.
Kansas may be on an eight game slide as they enter play today, but Turner Gill's team has covered their last pair of games as the double-digit underdog, losing by just three to Iowa State, and by only one in overtime last week versus Baylor.
With their big Thanksgiving night clash at home versus the Texas Longhorns on deck, look for the Aggies to be off focus just enough in this game to keep the Jayhawks inside of an impost you can drive an ark through.
Kansas plus the points the way to go in this one.
2♦ KANSAS
Chris Jordan
On to my complimentary play for today, as I start with the SEC showdown taking place in Athens, Georgia, at Sanford Stadium between the Hedges, as the Georgia Bulldogs host the Kentucky Wildcats in a complete mismatch.
Sure, this is a big number, around 30 right now. And the way Georgia has been playing, there's no reason to doubt the 13th-ranked Bulldogs. They've been on a roll since opening the season with two straight losses, winning eight in a row. And with today being Senior Day for 24 players, my guess is this will be a monumental win, especially since a victory over Kentucky would clinch Georgia's first SEC championship-game berth since 2005. A loss means South Carolina wins the East in a tiebreaker. So at home, I don't think the Dawgs allow the 'Cats to stay close.
Turnovers could be the biggest culprit in this one, as Georgia ranks second in the SEC, behind LSU, with a plus-nine turnover margin. On the other hand, Kentucky ranks 10th in the SEC.
And we're talking about Kentucky's 118th-ranked offense - out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams - going into Athens to take on Georgia's fourth-ranked defense. The Bulldogs have done a good job at limiting foes, allowing seven of eight during their streak to score nor more than 28 points, and only two teams to even reach the 20-point plateau. The Bulldogs ranks 12th in the nation with their scoring defense, allowing 18.6 points per game. The six foes who didn't hit the 20-point mark scored no more than 16 points. The average margin of victory during the streak is 24.8 points per win.
No, that doesn't cover the number today, but three of the Bulldogs' wins have come by 59, 47 and 38 points, including last week's home win over Auburn. And if the Bulldogs can take care of the defending national champs by a final of 45-7 this late in the season, I can only imagine how bad today's game will be. Lay the chalk, as the Dawgs roll to an easy win and cover over the visiting Wildcats.
4♦ GEORGIA
For my second comp winner for Saturday, I'm going to play UTEP plus the points against Tulsa, as I have a feeling the value is with the home underdog thanks to a couple of intangibles. First and foremost is the Miners' desire to become bowl eligible. Of course, it'll need some help along the way, but by winning out it'll end up 7-5 and will be able to play in the postseason. At 6-6, it would have to hope there are bowl berths available once teams with a winning record have been invited to bowl games.
It starts today though, as the Miners must focus on this game here. I know UTEP doesn't have the offense Tulsa does, but that doesn't mean they're incapable of putting points on the board. This team has scored 21, 42, 44, 31 and 37 points in certain games this season. Overall it averages 27.7 points per game, and make note when it took on Houston, which has the most prolific offense in the nation, it fell in a 49-42 shootout.
Admittedly, this is a different football team that I watched in September, when the Golden Hurricane visited Boise State and lost 41-21. Since that setback, Tulsa has won six in a row behind the 19th-ranked offense in the country. And though it appears it should win its seventh straight, and by a huge margin, I wonder if the Hurricane will be looking ahead to next Friday's home clash against Houston. After all, Tulsa is 6-0 in conference play and figures to be 7-0 when it host the Cougars in seven days.
But the Miners have something else in mind today, and could very well use last night's Iowa State win over Oklahoma State as a motivational tool to pull the same thing, especially if the Hurricane aren't taking this game seriously.
Let's take the points in this one, as UTEP is on an 8-3 ATS run against winning teams and desperately needs a win.
2♦ UTEP
Matt Rivers
Free play winner for Saturday is yet another Paul Bunyan Lumberjack Special, as I chop the big wood with Wyoming over New Mexico.
Miraculously, the Lobos actually won a game last week, as New Mexico won for the first time in ten games this year at home versus UNLV. The Lobos also named Bob Davie as head coach starting next season, so things may be looking up in Lobo-Land, but don't expect that to translate to a close effort in Laramie.
Wyoming was blasted laat year at Albuquerque, so expect a monster payback for today's meeting. The Cowboys are on a 4 game cover streak, and are 3-0 against the spread the last 3 times they have been asked to cover a number at home.
One more win makes the Cowboys bowl-eligible, so expect the revenge factor to work to a tee this afternoon.
Chalk city, as the 'Pokes roll.
3♦ WYOMING
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the underdog Virginia Cavaliers to cover against Florida State.
There is nothing flashy about Virginia. The Cavaliers like to rely on a strong defense and a strong running game. It may not be sexy, but it’s a recipe that works.
Virginia running backs Perry Jones and Kevin Parks will be the focal points of the offense. Jones has rushed for 856 yards and five touchdowns, while Parks has accounted for 616 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Florida State defense will stack itself to try and stop the run. The defense allows only an average of 78 yards rushing and 194 yards passing. The Seminoles will see if quarterback Michael Rocco can beat them through the air. He has been inconsistent. He has thrown for 1910 yards and 10 touchdowns, but has thrown 9 interceptions. But he is good enough to keep the Seminoles off balance.
Virginia’s defense has picked up its performance. In the last three games, it has allowed only 68 yards rushing per game.
Virginia has the defense to keep this game close and getting double digits is very appealing.
Take the points.
3♦ VIRGINIA
Real Time Animal
Michigan State -28
This is the 4th road game in five weeks for Indiana. The only win in 10 games for the Hoosiers this year came against South Carolina State going 0-for against FBS teams. Believe it or not, I tend to believe there is value in this number. Consider this: Indiana went to Wisconsin and were a 38-point underdog losing 59-7. Michigan State of course beat the Badgers in East Lansing 37-31. Last week Indiana lost in Columbus by 14 points 34-20. The Buckeyes are completely one-dimensional on offense and rushed for 346 yards on 46 carries. But before that the Hoosiers against multi-dimensional offenses allowed 59 to Northwestern, 45 to Iowa, and 59 to Wisconsin. They also yielded 41 at home to Illinois, which is hard to fathom considering how bad the Illini offense has been (scoreless in first half last four games). The only issue here is Michigan State's notorious poor record as conference chalk of more than 23 points (0-9 ATS). But Indiana is obviously not going to a bowl, allow 200+ yards a game more than the Spartans, and play for the dreaded Oaken Bucket rivalry game with Purdue next week.
Offshore Insiders
Rutgers +3
The Bearcats are going to have a rough time at this venue without their field general -- Zach Collaros (ankle) -- who was injured last week vs West Virginia. And the Bearcats' history as a road favorite off a SU/ATS loss doesn't bode well at 1-7 ATS.
The Scarlet Knights remember last year's 69-38 debacle in Cincinnati. We'll look for Rutgers to get revenge. Rutgers' defense has been outstanding this year -- allowing just 18.2 ppg. They'll clearly focus on stopping Cincinnati's main offensive weapon -- RB Isaiah Pead forcing inexperienced QB Munchie Legaux to beat them. Cincinnati has struggled in November at 1-8 ATS and I expect them to fall here.
New Mexico/Wyoming 2:00: I still see value with the Cowboys in this line. The Lobos are coming off a rare win at home against lightweight UNLV; however, they don't play the double digit dog role well off SU wins at 8-19 ATS.
Furthermore, Wyoming is seeking revenge from last year's 34-31 stunner in New Mexico. Today, the Cowboys get them on their home field where they're 5-0 ATS vs teams under .500 on the road. New Mexico allows an ultra pathetic 51 ppg on 558 yards per game as a traveler. Fired HC Mike Locksley left New Mexico in such a hole that Bob Davie (new head coach) will need an earth mover to dig themselves out, at least for the remaining two games.
We'll look for Dave Christensen's offense, led by accurate QB Brett Smith and a strong run game (184 yards per game) to hammer away at the 117th ranked defense in the nation. With Wyoming a sweet 6-1 ATS at home with revenge off a SU/ATS win, we'll lay the wood here.
OC Dooley
Texas Tech +18
Host Missouri has SIX players listed as either “questionable” or “out” ranging from running back, tight end, offensive line, defensive back and even kicker Grant Ressel who is battling a hip injury. Of course the big news exactly one week ago was Penn State taking the field on “senior day” without 46-year mentor Joe Paterno at the controls. We have yet another unusual “senior day” situation this week as Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel has been suspended following a DUI arrest back on Wednesday evening. To make matters worse Missouri in a home victory last Saturday ended up losing the services of star Henry Josey (Big 12 top rusher) to a season-ending knee injury. Despite all the negatives Missouri has still been installed as a prohibitive favorite against a reeling opponent who has lost three in a row, including a 66-6 humiliation last Saturday. Ever since pulling off a massive upset of Oklahoma on the road, it has been tough times for Texas Tech (0-3) where the offense has been able to put up just 33 combined points on the scoreboard. It is interesting to note that this week the Athletic Director of Texas Tech gave 100% support to head coach Tommy Tuberville even though the Red Raiders are coming off the worst loss in school history. Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (56-25 since 1992 with a money line between 10’-and-21 points) that plays AGAINST favorites like Missouri after allowing 14-or-less points in the prior outing, against an opponent who has suffered consecutive blowout losses of 17+ points in margin. That system works since Missouri won a low scoring 17-5 contest at home a week ago where they covered a near pick-em spread. Missouri has actually ALTERNATED “spread” wins-and-losses in SEVEN consecutive contests and they are due for an ATS setback late this afternoon