Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 2

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

San Antonio at Portland
The Spurs look to follow up last night's win over the Lakers and take advantage of a Portland team that is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 home games. San Antonio is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-2 1/2).

Game 501-502: Cleveland at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 112.016; Indiana 118.223
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 8 1/2; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+8 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Chicago at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 124.530; Philadelphia 114.023
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 10 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 8 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-8 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Charlotte at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 108.726; New Orleans 118.265
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7 1/2); Over

Game 507-508: Toronto at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 120.946; Milwaukee 117.669
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 3 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+1); Under

Game 509-510: Memphis at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 118.430; Dallas 122.892
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 4 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-2); Over

Game 511-512: Houston at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 119.273; Utah 126.038
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 7; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+6); Under

Game 513-514: San Antonio at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 128.359; Portland 114.088
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 14 1/2; 201
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-2 1/2); Over

Game 515-516: Sacramento at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 116.786; Golden State 124.800
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 8; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 10; 206
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+10); Under

NHL

St. Louis at Tampa Bay
The Lightning look to build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 games against Western Conference opponents. Tampa Bay is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105)

Game 1-2: Chicago at Winnipeg (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.658; Winnipeg 11.582
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155); Under

Game 3-4: St. Louis at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.378; Tampa Bay 12.459
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Over

Game 5-6: Anaheim at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.758; Buffalo 10.797
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-175); Under

Game 7-8: Philadelphia at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.539; New Jersey 10.431
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+125); Over

Game 9-10: Boston at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.075; NY Islanders 11.113
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under

Game 11-12: Carolina at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.991; NY Rangers 10.760
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+155); Over

Game 13-14: Florida at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.353; Washington 10.290
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 15-16: Pittsburgh at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.958; Columbus 11.268
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-125); Under

Game 17-18: Toronto at Vancouver (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.300; Vancouver 12.778
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-145); Under

Game 19-20: Montreal at Colorado (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.405; Colorado 11.218
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+125); Over

Game 21-22: Detroit at Edmonton (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.052; Edmonton 10.595
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105); Over

Game 23-24: Phoenix at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.825; San Jose 13.410
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-200); Under

Game 25-26: Nashville at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 10.437; Los Angeles 11.431
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-185); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-185); Under

Harry Bondi

SYRACUSE (-3.5) over Wake Forest

This is simply a horrible spot for the Deamon Deacons. Last week, the team appeared on the verge of the biggest win in school history against Miami-Florida after taking a 14-3 lead in the first half and a 21-17 in the fourth quarter. But the Hurricanes drove 73 yards in the final minutes for the winning touchdown, keeping Wake Forest from earning their first win over a Top-10 team in 67 years. Now, they have to get up off the mat and travel to Syracuse where many of their players will be kicking off in a dome for the first time in their careers. Meanwhile, the Orange had last week off and will be rested and ready for the Wake Forest offense. Syracuse comes in 4-3, but is a bit underrated with the three losses coming against Georgia Tech, Northwestern and Clemson. Lay the short number.

Strike Point Sports

California (+16) over Arizona

I’ll be the first to admit that this Cal team is awful. They’ve been blown out left and right so far in the Pac 12. But something just tells me this number is way too much for a poor Arizona team just the same. And I understand the idea behind this number, that oddsmakers have to thrown huge numbers at the Bears in order to entice bettors to take a chance on the Berkeley program. Well, I’m biting this time around. I have seen the Wildcats play a lot this season, and they do not have the same kind of offensive production as an Oregon, Washington or Stanford. I think it would take a pretty impressive effort to beat Cal at home by three scores, and I will grab the large number and take a flyer out on Cal.

Jason Sharpe

Idaho (+10) over Texas State

Idaho finally plays a winnable game here in this one as the Vandals have been bigger than two-touchdown underdogs in all but one of their eight games this season. In their home game against Temple a month ago, Idaho outplayed the Owls early on and held on for a 26-24 win. This is the first year under new head coach Paul Petrino, and I like what I have seen from this group this year.

Texas State comes in off three straight home contests, and they just put an end to their three-game ATS losing streak last Saturday against South Alabama. The Bobcats have played a much easier schedule than Idaho this season, and because of that they have posted a 5-3 record overall. But make no mistake about it, this is still a below-average program.

It’s tough to cover double digits on the road for any team, especially for a bottom-level team like Texas State. This is a home game that Idaho feels they can win, so expect a very strong effort from them here in this one. Take Idaho and the points here. I have had a great month in football, going 24-13 overall in October and posting three winning weeks out of the four. I have a big card again for this weekend on the gridiron, and expect the winning to continue as I am seeing things very well right now overall.

Brandon Shively

Minnesota vs. Indiana
Play: Indiana -9.5

Minnesota is coming off a BIG home win vs. Nebraska (who is over-rated in my opinion) and now has to travel on the road to play a well rested Indiana team who can put up more points than their Basketball team. The Gophers are 6-2 on the year now and are bowl-eligible . That should be a big sigh of relief for them which make this ' LETDOWN' angle much stronger that I am using for this game.

Minnesota is actually coming off B2B BIGwins, the first @ Northwestern and then of course last week vs. Nebraska. The win @ Northwestern did not shock me at all. Northwestern was coming off the heart-breaking loss to Ohio State, then getting rolled @ Wisconsin. Their perfect season was down the drain and the Gophers were ready to take advantage. Last week, Minnesota made some gutsy calls including going for it on 4th and 10 in what resulted in a 33 yard touchdown pass. Looking closer, the Gophers had only 159 passing yards, and that will not get the job done today vs. Indiana, who has a passing offense ranked 10th in the nation.

Indiana is a great spot today. They have 19 returning starters from last year's team and are coming off a bye week. They are coming off B2B losses on the road, but at 3-4 on the season, they know that they need to win their remaining home games to become bowl eligible. I feel like Indiana will come into this game knowing the importance of it. So from a motivational standpoint, they definitely have the edge.

In closing, the Hoosiers are comfortable playing at home. They have a hurry-up offense that will be pushing the pace today. They hold all the situational edges and I will lean on them this afternoon to get the win by 14+ points.

Brandon Shively

Clemson vs. Virginia
Play: Clemson -17

lemson comes into this game on Saturday as a double digit road favorite and will not be getting much attention from the public. After the loss to FSU, Clemson let Maryland pull the back-door cover last Saturday, so obviously the Tigers will not have many backers this afternoon. This line opened at -20, and has dropped to -16.5.

Clemson can win this game by 35+ points and I feel like they will do it. They still have a Top 10 offense and will be able to flex their muscles against a Virginia team that is only averaging 22 ppg. In Week 2, Oregon beat Virginia 59-10, and this is a game where we should see a similar score. I like OC Chad Morris for Clemson, and it did not surprise me that they got off to a slow start last weekend vs. Maryland. I feel like the dreaded 'hangover' is over with and the Tigers will be rolling this afternoon.

Some of the Clemson scores have been misleading this year. The bottom line is that Clemson outgained Maryland by 187 yards, Boston College by 210 yards, Syracuse by 227 yards, and Wake Forrest by 351 yards. They should outgain Virginia by 200+ yards this afternoon, and given the fact that Virginia quarterback has more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7), look for Clemson to win the turnover battle and run the score up. The BCS rankings are out, Clemson will not let off the gas today.

Jesse Schule

Wisconsin vs. Iowa
Pick: Iowa

Two of the best defenses in the Big Ten conference will be showcased in Iowa this Saturday, with the Hawkeyes hosting the Wisconsin Badgers. The Hawkeyes are coming off an impressive 17-10 victory over Northwestern last week.

Iowa is ranked 12th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just over 18 points per game. It's not like they have had a soft schedule either, they've played Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Northwestern, teams that have all spent time in the top 25 rankings this season.

Two weeks ago they went into Columbus and pushed the Buckeyes to the brink, in a game that was tied until Ohio State scored 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 34-24.

The Badgers have lost 2-of-3 on the road, although they really got hosed in the desert, in a game that they likely would have won had the officials not botched the call on the final play of the game.

The Hawkeyes have covered the points in seven of their last nine meetings with the Badgers, and they won six of those seven games outright.

I am a little surprised to see the home team getting more than a touchdown against a conference rival that they have a history of playing tough.

Ross Benjamin

Georgia vs. Florida
Play: Georgia -2.5

The Georgia Bulldogs and the Florida Gators will get together for their annual battle that’s played in Jacksonville. According to college football betting odds Georgia is currently a 2.5 point favorite. Florida has covered 7 of their last 10-games versus Georgia. The favorite has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series.

Great Defense and Anemic Offense

It’s not very difficult to dissect why the Florida Gators are off to a disappointing 4-3 start to the season. They possess one of the finest defensive units in the country, but their offense has been absolutely terrible. The Gators are 4th nationally in total defense allowing just 273.1 yards per game. The Florida offense is on the other side of the spectrum averaging just 336.9 yards per game which ranks 110th nationally. The Gators once vaunted pass offense has been totally inept averaging just 175.4 yards per contest. The offensive struggles weren’t helped when starting quarterback Jeff Driskel broke his right leg in game 3 of the season versus Tennessee. Junior Tyler Murphy has stepped in and done an admirable job, but lacks the wow factor that this offense desperately needs. The Gators enter Saturday’s contest having lost 2 in a row at the hands of LSU and Missouri in which they were outscored by a combined 53-23.

How to Salvage a Season in Athens

The Georgia Bulldogs entered this season with national championship aspirations. Now that those goals and dreams went by the wayside in their 4-3 start, the question becomes how they will respond the rest of the way? When breaking down the Bulldogs over their first 7-games they’re the polar opposite of their upcoming opponent. The offense has been dynamic for the better part of the season, while the defense has been downright pathetic by their standards. The Georgia offense is averaging a robust 475 yards per game which is good for 28th best in the country. The defense is allowing 390 yards per contest, and the pass defense in particular has been their biggest weakness. The Bulldogs are allowing 253.4 yards per game in the air which ranks 97th nationally. The disappointing start to the year is of no fault to senior quarterback Aaron Murray. Murray has thrown for 1938 yards with 17 touchdown passes and just 6 interceptions. Murray has also rushed for 88 yards and 5 touchdowns as well. Georgia enters the Florida game losers of 2 in a row. The Bulldogs have allowed 30-points or more in 6 of their first 7 games.

Final Analysis

Both of these teams had much higher hopes entering the season. Both enter the contest having lost 2 in a row so something has to give. The Florida offense isn’t equipped to fully expose the porous Georgia defense. However, Aaron Murray and the Bulldogs offense are explosive enough to give the stellar Florida defense problems. My lean here is on the small favorite.

Joe Gavazzi

Virginia Tech at Boston College
Play: Virginia Tech -4.5

Credit new HC Addazio with developing a tougher attitude and better chemistry on this edition of the Eagles. They stand 3-4 SU following their 2-10 SU debacle of last year. QB Rettig and RB Williams have led a balanced offense that has performed respectively in covers against Florida St. and Clemson. Why not today against a Virginia Tech team who enters on a negative slide of 11-22 ATS including just 1-8 ATS away of late? While HC Beamer and DC Foster continue their old-school ways of smash mouth football, the rest of the college landscape seems to be passing them by. The Hokies still qualify as a Defensive Dandy with a +9 net TO margin characterizing their solid special teams play.

They used that MO to record 3 consecutive victories prior to hosting Duke last week. The result was a shocking 13-10 defeat despite the fact that Tech had a 387-198 yardage edge and a 40-20 TOP edge. A pair of missed field goals and 4 INTs sealed their fate. Those types of numbers beg for a turnaround. Despite their 19 PPG offense, I give the Hokies an outstanding chance for the bounceback laying a value price of under a TD with a Defensive Dandy. For all the ATS trials and tribulations of HC Beamer, it should still be pointed out that this once outstanding road team is still 14-2 ATS on the November highway.

Will Rogers

Wisconsin vs. Iowa
Pick: Under

The Iowa Hawkeyes will host the Wisconsin Badgers this Saturday, and these two Big Ten rivals have a history of playing close, low scoring games. The Hawkeyes defense dominated in a 17-10 win over the Northwestern Wildcats last week.

Here are my keys to the game:

1: Defense - The Badgers 6th ranked defense has allowed an average of 12 points per game so far, while the Hawkeyes 12th ranked defense is allowing an average of just over 18 points per game.

2: Previous History - The total for this game is higher than it had been in any of the previous four meetings between these two teams.

3: X-Factor - The Hawkeyes are grossly underrated, their three losses have come to teams with a combined record of 23-1. They gave the Ohio State Buckeyes quite a scare in Columbus just a few weeks ago. The Badgers offense isn't nearly as prolific as Ohio State's, and I expect to see points be at a premium in Iowa City this Saturday.

Selection: The play is on the Badgers/Hawkeyes to go UNDER the total.

Teddy Covers

Michigan vs. Michigan State
Pick: Michigan State

Michigan hasn’t enjoyed much success against Michigan State in recent years, particularly from a pointspread perspective. The Wolverines closed as 9.5 point home favorites against the Spartans last year, but failed to score a single touchdown in their 12-10 non-covering win.

Prior to that two point victory, the Spartans had won four straight in the series (both SU and ATS), with three of those four victories coming by two touchdowns or more. Michigan’s last ATS cover against Michigan State came all the way back in 2006 – it’s been a while!

The Wolverines come into this game in a pretty good spot, rested and ready off their bye week. That stands in sharp contrast to Michigan State; a team that hasn’t had a bye since September, looking forward to their break following this game.

Mark Dantonio has earned a reputation as a defensive mastermind, and the Spartans stop unit will be the best unit on the field this Saturday. Michigan State’s D just gets better and better. After allowing 26 points per game on 381 yards per game back in 2009, the Spartans improved to 22 points and 354 yards allowed in 2010. In 2011 it was even better: 18 points and 277 yards. In 2012, it was even better: 16 points and 274 yards.

It’s hard to improve on those defensive numbers, but the Spartans have done it so far for the fifth consecutive season. The numbers don’t lie: Michigan State is allowing just 215 yards per game – by far the best in the country and 12 points per game (behind only Alabama and Louisville). And the Spartans force takeaways too, almost two per game on average.

That’s bad news for Wolverines turnover prone QB Devin Gardner. Gardner has thrown multiple interceptions in more than half of his games this season; a big part of the reason why Michigan struggled against the likes of Akron and UConn in non-conference play, and a big part of the reason that they lost their last road game at Penn State.

To make matters even worse for Michigan, their offense clearly lacks explosive playmakers. Feature back Fitz Toussaint is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. Leading receiver Jeremy Gallon has 45 catches and seven TD’s. Tight end Devin Funchess has 23 catches and four TD’s. But other than those two weapons, Michigan doesn’t have a single skill position player with more than 105 yards from scrimmage this year. I’m expecting the Wolverines offense to struggle mightily here, just as every other offense has struggled.

The Spartans offense was their undoing last year when they averaged only 20 points per game; an eleven point drop-off from their 11 win season with Kirk Cousins behind center in 2011. That attack got off to a very slow start again this year, but the Spartans have come to life in recent weeks now that Connor Cook has taken firm control of the job.

Cook completed 15 of his 16 pass attempts on the road last week, the Spartans have hung 26+ on their foes in three of their last four in Big 10 play. I’m certainly not expecting a blowout, but a Michigan State win by about a TD sounds about right. Take Michigan State.

Marc Lawrence

Minnesota vs. Indiana
Pick: Minnesota

We have a question: if we can find you a 6-2 SU team that just won back-to-back games outright as a double-digit dog versus a 3-4 team on a 0-2 SUATS slide that gives up 498 yards per game, and lost its last two games by 16 and 14 points – and YOUR team is a double-digit UNDERDOG – would you play them? Why ‘hell, yeah’ you would. Did terrorists slip something into the water out in Vegas last Sunday morning? We think something special is going on in Minneapolis right now: how else can we explain a team that gets outgained 29 YPG but has somehow gone 6-2 SU and 5-2 ATS? Don’t forget that a coaching staff missing its sideline leader for several weeks now has choreographed their recent success. We call it the ‘Kill Factor’, and it’s working in Minneapolis these days. And if you refuse to eat a sundae without the cherry, try this delectable morsel: Minnesota owns 128 YPG the better ‘D’ in this scrape. That figure takes on added significance when we see Indiana’s recent 3-7 ATS slide in the series, and the Hoosiers’ miserable 1-5 ATS mark as chalk of 3 or more points. We’ve seen Gophers teams that would have jumped back into their hole by now – but not these guys. Yes, we’re always queasy about the thought of laying doubles with a losing team into a winning team. And when we factor in such a large defensive disparity, we’re only looking one way. Let the Golden win you some foldin’. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.

Bruce Marshall

Wake Forest vs. Syracuse
Pick: Wake Forest

Jim Grobe might be tempted to place a call to Dr. Phil to gauge psychological state of his Wake troops after gut-wrenching loss at Miami last week. But recent Deac efforts (coinciding with offensive tweaks that have helped sr. QB Price) suggest the better team might be getting points at Carrier Dome. ‘Cuse QBs Hunt (0 TDP & 6 int. last 3; pulled in GT blowout) and Allen posting passing stats that seem better suited to the Ben Schwartzwalder era.

Tom Stryker

Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -10½

Owning a 699-471-43 record over the last 121 seasons, Georgia Tech will be juiced up and focused on victory No. 700 when Pittsburgh visits The Flats on Saturday night.

In all honesty, there's another critical reason why the Wrambling Wreck will be pumped for this contest. Head coach Paul Johnson's troops will play two FCS teams this season against Elon and Alabama A&M and only one of those can count toward bowl eligibility. Tech owns a 5-3 SU mark and visits Clemson next week before hosting Georgia on November 30th. The Bees realize that wins against the Tigers and Bulldogs are going to be tough. That's what makes knocking off the Panthers a must.

Defensively, Georgia Tech has what it takes to ensure a victory. The Yellow Jackets are allowing an average of only 19.9 points and 342.2 yards per game this season. That stingy stop unit should be able to control a mediocre Pitt offense that averages just 28.4 points and 362.7 yards per game.

When the Bees have they ball, you know what they're going to do - run. Coach Johnson's troops average an ACC-leading 315.6 yards per game on the ground. Last Saturday, Navy shredded Pittsburgh's defensive front seven for 220 yards on 47 carries (4.7 ypc). If the Panthers don't tighten up on the interior, the Jackets will run up and down Bobby Dodd Stadium all night long.

Since 1987, road teams that host Notre Dame in their next game are caught in a "look-ahead" situation notching a soft 19-36 ATS record including a disturbing 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS in this set if they're priced at +3.5 or more. The Yellow Jackets have postseason play on the line and they know it. Lay the lumber here men. Take Georgia Tech.