Alex Smart
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -9½
Pittsburgh has not really played anyone this season, playing what I would describe as a soft schedule. Going up against this option offense is going to be very hard for Pittsburgh D to handle. The Yellow Jackets average 315 ypg 4th in the country. Im betting them running wild this Saturday. It must be noted that the Panthers have failed to cover 9 straight ACC road tilts.
Eddie J
Miami Florida vs Florida State
Pick: Miami Florida
The #3 ranked Florida State Seminoles host the #7 ranked Miami Hurricanes Saturday night! The stock on the Noles is high as can be as they have won all 7 games this season by an average of 39.6 PPG including a 51-14 romp over then #3 Clemson in death valley.The Noles are led by freshman sensation Jameis Winston and average an eye popping 553.7 yards per game. The defense is no slouch either allowing only 289.3 yards per game. Miami on the other hand their stock is low as can be with 2 squeakers against UNC and Wake. Miami has star power as well led by RB Duke Johnson who can break an 80 yard run at any moment averaging 484.3 yards on offense and allowing only 345.9. Now to the pick! I like the fact Florida State's stock has reached it's apex and Miami has hit it's bottom. Miami should play better and maybe FSU a little worse. FSU has played all cupcakes except their impressive win over Clemson. Miami has the athletes on both sides of the ball to stay in this game. Also Miami is FSU's biggest hurdle to go undeafeated and noone goes undeafeated without one challenge i.e UCF vs Louisville. Miami is 5-1 ATS L6 at Tallahasse with the last 4 being decided by an average of 5 points. In the last 10 meetings only 2 were by a margin of more than a TD and 9 of them within 13 points. The dog is an incredible 11-0 L11 ATS head to head and the road team is 6-1 ATS L7. Miami is also 9-2 ATS L11 vs ACC opponents. Take Miami +22. I don't think this game comes close to 22 it is a product of the recent performances of both clubs. Great value in the Canes they don't lose by more than 14.
AC Dinero
Mississippi St vs. South Carolina
Play: Mississippi St +12.5
South Carolina comes home after a furious comeback in OT at Missouri last week to keep their SEC title hopes alive to face Miss St this weekend. I can see a flat spot here for the Gamecocks, as they have shown a tendency to play up in big games and down in lesser games. This would qualify as a lesser game. The offense has been very good, but the pass defense has been suspect, giving up 7.4 ypa. Mississippi St has also been solid on offense, hitting 8.2 ypa. They should be able to hit enough big plays in the passing game to keep it close. Plus, they don't beat themselves with mistakes. Take the points with the Bulldogs as they catch the Gamecocks in a nice spot.
Jeff Clement
Northern Illinois vs. Massachusetts
Play: Northern Illinois -24.5
N. Illinois is averaging 41.9 points per game while lowly UMASS is scoring only 10.6 points per game which ranks 126th in the nation. Major offensive mismatch especially when Jordan Lynch is your quarterback who has 1,711 yards passing with 18 TD's and 1,031 yards rushing and 8 TD's. The Huskies average 307.5 yards per game and beat UMASS last year 63-0. Lynch will put up huge numbers and N.Illinois will win easily.
Greg Shaker
W. Kentucky / Georgia St. Under 56
There are just not enough hours in the day at this time of the year with the NBA here and CBB on the way. So I will be brief here and then get back to work. I have been feasting on Georgia State UNDERS lately and for a good reason. They continue to not have much of an offense, and they continue to be one of the lowest PPG teams in the College Football Ranks. That's Plays Per Game and they rank #123 out of 125 teams monitored. This despite the fact that they throw the ball more times than they run. They are however methodical in getting to the line and setting up for a play. Western Kentucky does run more than they pass, much to the dismay of many, and while they are #36 in PPG, they slipped some on that stat lately, and they have developed a pretty good D along the way. That is why they are 4-0 UNDER their last 4 times on any field. This is perception verses reality for the Hilltoppers who generally play to posted totals higher than what we have but too high here considering the competition and the venue. My number is lower than what is posted for sure and I am playing this one.
Dave Essler
Boston College +4.5
V-Tech has played exactly two road games, barely beating ECU and beating G-Tech by 7, only managing to score 17 points. This game should be low scoring, BC is a tough place to play (small stadium, terrible facilities) and the Hokies have Miami next week. Eagles have played FSU, Clemson, and SoCal in California, they should win this game outright. They still need three more wins to get to six, and it starts here.
Matt Fargo
Tennessee vs. Missouri
Play: Tennessee +10.5
We played against Tennessee last Saturday and it lost big in Alabama which we expected after coming off an upset the previous week at home against South Carolina. The Volunteers hit the road for a second straight week but this time we will be on them as they are getting a very favorable line in my opinion. Yes, Tennessee is winless on the road but two of the losses came against the top two teams in the BCS rankings and in the other, it was able to stay within the number at Florida. The quarterback situation is the concern as Justin Worley was hurt last week and will be out a few weeks while Joshua Dobbs takes over the starting duties. He was decent in backup role last week and with a week of preparation, he will be fine. His teammates say they have no doubt he's ready as they've marveled at the poise Dobbs has shown since arriving on campus. His mobility gives Tennessee's offense an element it lacked with Worley and Missouri has no idea how to prepare. This play is also based on the Missouri loss last week and how difficult it is going to be to recover from. The Tigers jumped to a 14-0 halftime lead, and carried a 17-0 lead into the fourth quarter, only to see Gamecocks quarterback Connor Shaw come off the bench to engineer a big comeback to force overtime on a touchdown pass with just 42 seconds left in regulation. The game ended in double overtime when kicker Andrew Baggett's 24-yard field goal attempt was no good when it hit off the left upright to give South Carolina the win. Missouri was 7-0 at the time and had its sights set on really big things but all that hope is gone and letting that go will be near impossible to do. Tigers quarterback Maty Mauk is expected to make his third career start this week, but James Franklin was upgraded to questionable as his separated throwing shoulder continues to heal. The offense struggled last week and I expect that to carry over here. Tennessee falls into a great situation as we play on road underdogs after a game where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent after three consecutive games where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 61-26 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1992. Additionally, the Volunteers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Jimmy Boyd
Boston College +5
The Eagles have not been given a lot of respect when facing decent opponents, and that has resulted in a 5-1 ATS record against teams with a winning record. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Virginia Tech on the other hand has posted a 1-8 ATS record in their last nine road games, and a 2-9 ATS record in their last 11 games against a team with a losing record. In head-to-head meetings between these teams, the Hokies are 2-5 ATS in the last seven games played at Boston College.
There has been no shortage of scoring at home for the Eagles. They are averaging 32.5 points per game. They also have a 3-1 straight up record when playing in front of their home crowd. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has averaged just 14 points per game on the road this season. The Hokies offense has a lot of issues right now. They average a mere 266 yards of offense on the road, and are struggling with both the run and pass. Boston College is a mediocre team defensively, but they should look like a championship caliber team against the Hokies this weekend.
EZWINNERS
Penn State Nittany Lions -10.5
Penn State is coming off of a blowout 63-14 loss last week at Ohio State but the Nittany Lions are 6-0 against the spread following a loss under head coach O’Brien and I expect them to bounce back in this game. There is no love lost between these two head coaches as Bill O'Brien was pretty pissed off when Illinois came on campus to recruit players during the Sandusky scandle and I think that will provide extra motivation for PSU. Illinois are just a horrible team on the road. The Illini's Big Ten road losing streak is currently at seventeen games. The Illini are 0-6 straight up and against the spread the last two seasons in true road games and they have been outgained by almost 250 yards per game in those contests. This is only their second true road game of the season having lost 39-19 at Nebraska in their first role as a visitor this season. There has been a lot of criticism of the Penn State defense and first year defensive coordinator John Butler as the team is just 8oth in the nation scoring defense and has allowed 40 points or more in three straight games. I look for the Nittany Lions defense to respond in a big way. Penn State is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight home games and Illinois is on a 4-15 against the spread slide in Big Ten play. Lay the points.
Texas Longhorns -27.5
Twice in the ten seasons the Texas Longhorns have narrowly escaped with close wins against these Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence but Texas has dominated Kansas at home under Mack Brown and I don't see any reason for that to change in this matchup. In their last four trips to Austin, the Jayhawks have lost 43-0, 51-20, 66-14 and 59-0. This year's edition of the Longhorns is not as potent as teams of the past, but this team is on a roll having won four straight games including an win over the Sooners at the Cotton Bowl. The key offensively for Texas has been to run first to setup the pass and I see no reason why that success won't continue in this game. On the defensive side of the ball the Longhorns have been so much better since Greg Robinson took over as defensive coordinator for Manny Diaz. Kansas is one of the worst teams in the FBS. They rank near the very bottom in passing offense, rushing offense, total offense, scoring offense, rushing defense, passing defense, total defense, you get the picture. A couple games into the season it was looking like UT head coach Mack Brown wouldn't make it until the end of the season but now the Longhorns control their own destiny to win the Big 12 Championship and a possible BCS bowl birth. Texas needs to keep win and this is a game to get some style points. Lay the points with the Horns.
Tennessee Volunteers +10
This is a great opportunity for Tennessee to catch Missouri in a huge flat spot this week. The Tigers were one fourth down and 15 yards to go stop away last Saturday from all but punching their ticket to Atlanta to play in the SEC championship game. Instead they blow a 17 points fourth quarter lead only to lose in double overtime as their game tying field goal attempt hit the upright. Tennessee is just 4-4 on the season and come into this game off of a 45-10 beating at the hands of Alabama, but that beating is not a demoralizing blow like the one that the Tigers suffered last week. The Vols can be a dangerous team. Tennessee upset the same Gamecocks that knocked off Missouri two weeks ago 23-21 in overtime and they also lost by only three in overtime at Georgia on October 5th. Freshmen quarterback Joshua Dobbs will be making his first career start for the Vols. Dobbs came on in relief after an injury to Justin Worley in the first half against Alabama last week. Dobbs was 5 for 12 for 75 against the Crimson Tide and led a pair of second half scoring drives. This should not be looked at as a downgrade at the position. What Dobbs lacks in experience over Worley, he makes up with much more talent. The Tennessee offensive line has been pretty solid only allowing one sack per game in SEC play and I expect Dobbs to move this Vols offense. Take the points.
Chip Chirimbes
Tennessee vs. Missouri
Play: Tennessee +10½
Last week 'we' posted South Carolina who overcame a 17-point fourth quarter deficit to shock the Missouri at home with an double-overtime win. Last year the Tigers defeated Tennessee 51-48 in 4OT's a game where the Vols gained 585 yards. The Vols are off a 45-10 beating at the hands of Alabama and have responded well after terrible beat downs. They are 5-1 straight-up and 5-0-1 ATS under Butch Jones after a loss of 27 or more points. Add that they are 7-1 ATS in revenge games give us TENNESSEE!
Jim Feist
Miami (Fla) vs. Florida State
Play: Miami (Fla) +21½
Unbeaten Miami (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) has been undervalued for a while on a 10-3 ATS run. Al Golden runs a fine program and the offense is very talented and balanced, averaging 39 points, 270 yards passing and 214 yds rushing. Last Year FSU won at Miami, 33-20 and Miami lost star freshman Duke Johnson in the second half with an injury. Johnson is healthy now and a powerhouse back with 655 yards, averaging 7.1 ypc, so grab the big dog. Play Miami.
Brad Diamond
Rutgers over Temple
Play: Rutgers
Granted Temple is coming off their finest offensive show of the season, despite losing 59-49 on the road to defense less SMU. Temple is 1-7 SU when they hit field in East Brunswick Saturday afternoon. Temple is 0-4 SU on the road. The Scarlet Knights (4-3) return home where they are 3-1 SU. Rutgers, unlike Temple, won in OT at SMU. More important, their recent losses have been to units with a combined SU mark of 20-2 (Louisville included). Rutgers will have a HUGE emotional edge this time around, although the Owls are in revenge. Temple has made numerous lineup changes over the last few weeks seeing QB Walker maturing into a positive athlete. However, there are numerous problems on the offensive line which will play into the Rutgers defensive approach. Also, Temple's defense is surrendering 516 yards per game! Rutgers HC Kyle Flood has addressed the Nova INT issue this week in practice changing the routes of various passing plays. Since 2003 the Knights are 3-0 SU in the series winning by the average margin of 17 points. With Temple 3-7 ATS in November and 2-7 ATS against winning football teams.
Kyle Hunter
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech +1
The Texas Tech Red Raiders played well in a loss last week at Oklahoma. Texas Tech led in the second half, and I think they showed they are for real in that game. The last time Oklahoma State came to Lubbock they won 66-6. You better believe Texas Tech players have heard about that all week. Texas Tech is a much better team than they were then, and the Oklahoma State Cowboys aren't even close to the same caliber of team they were a couple years ago. Texas Tech will have a good home crowd and a ton of revenge on their minds in this one. Take Texas Tech.
Freddy Wills
Tennessee vs. Missouri
Play: Tennessee +10½
Volunteers have done something that Missouri has not and that is beat South Carolina at home. I do not see Tennessee being this bad on the road and it is an over reaction by the linesmakers because they know people will still bet on Missouri in this spot. Tennessee can take away Missouris defensive strength which is its pass rush. Tenn has the best offensive line in the country by manys opinion and they come into this game only allowing 8 sacks on the year and making room for a running game by 5 yards per carry led by RB Rajon Neal. Matty Mauk is not as good as I thought he continues to pass up open guys under neath for the big play down field and that will hurt him here.
Steve Janus
Mississippi State +12½
The Bulldogs enter riding a two game winning streak after holding off Kentucky 28-22 last Thursday. Mississippi State has won three of four overall, but have failed to cover the spread in three straight. It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise to see the Bulldogs listed as a double-digit underdog, considering their win over the Wildcats was arguably their most impressive victory of the season. However, the Bulldogs have played extremely well in their two conference road games. They lost 20-24 at Auburn on a last second touchdown and while they ended up losing 26-59 at LSU, they trailed the Tigers by a score of of just 26-31 going into the 4th quarter.
With South Carolina knocking off an undefeated Missouri team last week in dramatic fashion, oddsmakers have likely set this line knowing the public will be all over the Gamecocks. When you look at the South Carolina schedule, you will find just two wins all season by more than 10-points and those came against a couple of average teams in North Carolina and Arkansas. With the Bulldogs playing on extra rest and the Gamecocks off a massive win, this is clearly a letdown spot for the home team.
There’s a strong system backing a fade of South Carolina on Saturday. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points, who have won between 60% to 80% of their games, off an upset win as an underdog against a team with a winning record are just 5-25 (16.7%) ATS since 1992.
Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points, who have won between 60% to 80% of their games, off an upset win as an underdog against a team with a winning record are just 5-25 (16.7%) ATS since 1992.
Mississippi State not only has the defense to keep South Carolina from running up the score, but they will likely be able to put up some points against the Gamecocks defense. The Bulldogs feature the 32nd ranked rushing attack in the country at 205.4 ypg and the 38th ranked offense overall at 456 ypg. This team put up 468 yards of total offense against a pretty good LSU defense earlier this year and we just saw South Carolina allow Missouri to pile on 404 yards with a freshman quarterback under center.