Scott Spreitzer
Northwestern at Nebraska
Prediction: Northwestern
Last week's performance in a 34-23 loss at Minnesota was like hitting rock-bottom for the Husker football program. But I don't see them bouncing back in a big way until the defensive coaches change the game plan to account for mobile QBs. Northwestern will employ two QBs on Saturday and one, Kain Kolter can "pick-em-up and put-em-down," while Trevor Siemian can take the Husker secondary through the air. Nebraska's defensive schemes leave a lot of open real estate in the middle of the field and Northwestern HC Pat Fitzgerald obviously has the mind to take full advantage. Taylor Martinez likely won't play on Saturday putting Tommy Armstrong and Ron Kellogg-III behind center for the Huskers. Both backups run the offense as well as "T-Mart" has this season, so no drop-off for the Husker offense. But Nebraska receivers drop passes too frequently and I just don't believe they can pull away from the Wildcats. Northwestern beat a better Nebraska team in Lincoln two years ago and led the Huskers 28-16 in Evanston with 6 minutes to go in last year's game before Nebraska made a rare, furious comeback to win the game 29-28. The 'Cats are in no way going to be intimidated by the "Sea of Red" and I'm not going to be surprised if they win the game outright. The Pelini coaching family are have a horrible week...a horrible season...and I'm betting it gets even worse on Saturday. I'm recommending a play on Northwestern plus the points.
John Ryan
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts
Prediction: Massachusetts
The simulator shows a high probability that UMASS will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. Admittedly, NI is ranked No. 17 in the nation and is taking on a vastly inferior foe in 1-win UMASS. However, this is where the danger can often times arise for the ranked team playing on the road. This line is just too high and it reflects the public's irrational exuberance that NI needs to destroy the Minutemen in order to gain more support for a run into the Top-10 rankings. However, this is not the case and NI may be an excellent team, but they are hardly the likes of any team currently in the Top-10. Making things worse, is that these young men will be looking toward the two week showdowns with Ball State, who is undefeated in conference play and then Toledo the next week. NI is off a strong an dominant game defeating Eastern Michigan 59-20 and covered the 31 1/2 point spread. They tallied 661 offensive yards. However, it is often difficult to replicate elite levels of performance in consecutive weeks. NI is just 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. The media is correct in stating that NI has a very weak SOS. They have played a schedule that has a quotient of 16 based on my calculations. By comparison, UMASS has played a SOS that produces a 29 quotient. Looking at elite teams, for example, we see that Georgia has played a SOS equal to 46. So, a 16 reading is a schedule against hardly any formable foes. This will come to haunt them down the stretch. Take UMASS.
Steve Merril
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Oklahoma State +1
Teams often suffer a letdown after losing a big game and that might be the case with Texas Tech this week. The Red Raiders were highly ranked and undefeated heading into Oklahoma last week, but lost 38-30 in a high-scoring shootout. That type of loss often leaves a team flat the following week. We also get value playing against Texas Tech as they are an overrated squad. The Red Raiders have outgained their eight opponents 6.1-4.9 yards per play, however those opponents have been outgained 5.1-6.0 yppl on average this season, so Texas Tech is only +0.1 yppl above average on offense and just +0.2 yppl above average on defense when factoring in their strength of schedule.
Oklahoma State also rates just +0.1 yppl better on offense, averaging 5.8 yppl (versus opponents that allow 5.7 yppl), however the Cowboys are a much better defensive team, allowing just 4.6 yards per play this season (versus opponents that average 5.3 yppl). Oklahoma State has been especially strong versus the pass, allowing just 52.3% completions and only 5.8 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that average 57.7% and 6.8 ypp). This is important because Texas Tech is a pass-heavy offense that has thrown for 77% of their total offensive yards this season. The Red Raiders have not been in the same class the past two seasons against Oklahoma State, going 0-2 SU/ATS with losses by 59-21 and 66-6.
Jeff Alexander
Iowa +9.5
Wisconsin is precisely the type of team Iowa has thrived against in the Kirk Ferentz era. The Hawkeyes are an eye-popping 20-2 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 yards or more per carry under Ferentz. Believe it or not, Iowa has won by an average of 9.0 points in this spot. It's also worth mentioning that the Hawkeyes are 15-2 ATS versus teams that average 230 rushing yards or more per game under Ferentz, and they have defeated these opponents by 4.3 points per game. The Hawks rank 11th in the nation in total defense with 320.5 yards allowed per game. They rank 12th in the country in scoring defense with 18.1 points allowed per contest. I expect Iowa's defense to be able to slow down Wisconsin's running game enough to keep this one within the number.
Rob Vinciletti
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -10½
The Yellow Jackets will look to Sting the Pitt. Panthers early and often today with their vaunted rush attack that has seen them blowout a similarly ranked team like Syracuse 56-0 earlier this season. Pitt. has failed to cover the last 9 road games vs ACC Teams and covers around 20% of the time when they are outrushed on the road which is something that surely will happen here today against GA. Tech, who is in the top 5 in Rushing in the country averaging nearly 320 yards per game. With GA. Tech 8-0 ats as a home favorite vs an opponent off a loss of 10 or more points, there's only one way to go here. Take GA. Tech.
Joseph D'Amico
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -10½
G Tech will get their 3rd straight victory, qualifying the Yellow Jackets for a Bowl game. Their triple-offense posted 91 points the L2 games and face a subpar Panthers "D" that showed that they can't compete with the option scheme when they were dominated by Navy in LWs 24-21 loss. The offense's ground game has sputtered, averaging just 55 YR a game over the L3 contests. That leaves the unit in QB, Tom Savages shaky hands. GT leads the ACC and are 4th ranked with 316.2 YPG rushing. QB, Vad Lee has a stable of ball-carriers (Top-4 w/ 1648 YR and 21 TDs) which allows the QB to connect with his wideouts. On "D", the YJs yield just 19.9 PPG, ranking 17th nationally in Yards Allowed. The Panthers are 0-4 ATS their L4 games played on the road and 4-9 ATS their L13 Conference games. The Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS their L7 games played at home and 8-2-1 ATS their L11 Conference games. Take Georgia Tech.
Jack Jones
East Carolina -24½
The East Carolina Pirates are one of the better non-BCS teams in the country. They somehow fly under the radar, but this is a team that you will want to back Saturday as they take on one of the worst teams in the FBS in Florida International.
East Carolina is 5-2 this season despite playing a pretty tough schedule. Its only losses came to Virginia Tech (10-15) as an 8.5-point underdog where it held the Hokies (6-2) to 311 total yards. Its other loss came at Tulane (6-2) by a final of 33-36 in a game it dominated in every phase except the final score. The Panthers outgained the Green Wave 543-310 and obviously should have rolled.
Four of ECU's five victories this season have come by double-digits, including a 55-31 win at North Carolina as a 12.5-point under. That's the same UNC team that nearly beat Miami and one that is a quality foe. Last time out, the Pirates rolled Southern Miss 55-14 at home. That was on November 19, which means they have had two weeks of rest heading into this one.
Plays on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (E CAROLINA) - when playing with two weeks or more of rest are 44-13 (77.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. As you can see, favorites in this price range on rest have been absolutely dominant over the past 10 years.
Florida International has had no problem losing by margins of more than 24.5 points this season. It lost at Maryland (10-43), versus (UCF 0-38) and at Louisville (0-72) in three of its first four games to open the season. The other loss may have been even more troubling, which was a 13-34 home loss to FCS opponent Bethune Cookman. Last week, FIU lost at home 7-23 to a terrible Louisiana Tech team as well.
East Carolina is putting up 37.1 points per game and 447.1 yards per game to rank 43rd in the country in total offense. It has been even better on the other side of the ball, allowing 23.4 points and 342.1 yards per game to rank 18th in total defense. Florida International is scoring just 11.1 points per game and averaging 219.6 yards per game to rank 124th out of 125 teams in total offense. It will have a hard time putting up enough points against this stout ECU defense to stay within the number.
Florida International is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Panthers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. East Carolina is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more total yards. The Panthers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games after playing their previous game at home. Bet East Carolina Saturday.
Dave Price
Texas Tech +1
Motivated by last week's 38-30 loss at Oklahoma, Texas Tech will be ready to bounce back strong. As if last week's defeat doesn't provide enough motivation, the Red Raiders have lost four straight to Oklahoma State, getting pummeled 66-6 the last time they hosted. It's safe to say Texas Tech's blood will be boiling when it takes the field this evening. The Red Raiders have been a nice investment in bounce-back spots, going 55-35 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. They have won these games by an average score of 34.7 to 25.1. Texas Tech has also been tough at home over the last 21 seasons, going 69-44 ATS during this span with an average winning margin of 15.5 points. The Red Raiders are off to a 4-0 start at home this season, which is significant because the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games overall. Oklahoma State ranks 65th in the country against the pass, and that number is deceiving as its toughest games are still ahead. Texas Tech boasts the 2nd-best passing attack in the country, and I expect it to shred the Cowboys here. Take Texas Tech.
Charlie Scott
Army vs. Air Force
Play: Under 54.5
While both Teams stink this is a BIg game for the Academies. Both Teams run the ball via the Triple Option and struggle passing. Since running the ball will be most of the offense , expect the clock to keep running. Both Defense's face this offense every day in practice and have for a # of YRs. In a big game like this defense and Not committing turnovers will be a priority, while Air Force has a 3rd or 4th string QB to choose from and Army has had an extra week off to prepare. UNDER !
Wisconsin vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa +9.5
I'm hoping and expecting an old school ugly Big 10 game that won't allow Wisconsins offense to take advantage of their speed. Iowa is a decent Big 10 team that likes to play physical and won't be pushed around by Wisconsin. Iowa's QB was recruited out of Florida and can play and will be pretty good when he's a SR. Hawkeyes a a Live Home Double Digit Dog !
Mississippi St vs. South Carolina
Play: Mississippi St +12.5
This is more of a play studying South Carolina and betting that due to schedule dynamics South Carolina comes in banged up and flat Today as a Double Digit Favorite. First off Mississippi St has had a couple of extra days off, while South Carolina comes into this game off an OT lucky Win at Mizzou where they were down 17 in the 2nd half. In South Carolina's 8 games this Season they have Won by more than 13, 2 times. The first was a throwout rain delay in wk#1 vs NC and Arkansas. Off the Missouri gift from the Gods The Ole Ball Coach just want a Win Today. Miss ST
Harry Bondi
ARIZONA (-16) over California
Two weeks ago we cashed a 5-Star "Lock" Play when we used Oregon State (-11) over California, 49-17. This game will be very similar. The Bears are a disaster right now with a 1-7 ATS record this season. They are also 6-12 ATS at home the last three seasons and 4-13 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. They have been besieged by injuries and the lack of depth has been a major problem. First-year head coach Sonny Dykes is already playing for next year, which means he is using a ton of young and inexperienced players at key positions. The Wildcats are averaging 36 points per game and will have their way with a Bears defense that is allowing a whopping 44 points per game. Arizona is 12-5 ATS in this series and 4-0 ATS as a favorite this year. It's a rout. Lay the lumber.
Bob Balfe
Tulsa -3.5
We have bet against this Tulsa team all season long and we have cashed the ticket. I believe today is a time to get on board and actually back them. This young defense has been getting better and it’s getting to be the time where their competition is just average. Tulsa has a QB in Cody Green who has been disappointing this season and now has a chance at home to salvage this season. The key for this game is UTSA not being a great defensive team and not being able to force turnovers. This is a program that just a few years ago didn’t exist. They have been very impressive, but I think Tulsa is the better program with better skilled players today. Take Tulsa
CRAIG DAVIS
Free play of the day on the Georgia Bulldogs over the Florida Gators in the world's largest cocktail party.
The biggest story of the day in this game for me is the return of RB Todd Gurley for Georgia. It's the first time in three games he'll be roaming the sidelines for the Bulldogs since the injury. Though he may not start the game, his presence will be felt early and often against a defense that is suddenly being gashed by solid running games.
His return from injury is huge because the Bulldogs will gain an immediate advantage in the "injury battle".
Remember, Florida is down at least six starters due to injury. I'm not saying they're not capable of bringing in quality backups to fill the void, but those players are on the starting squad to begin with... becausee they can play!
This one could actually end up being a blowout if the Gatos don't answer Georgia's early touchdowns. Don't care what the final score is, just care that it stays within the number as I believe Georgia is simply too strong on both sides of the ball.
Take Georgia over Florida as your free play of the day.
2* GEORGIA
JEFF BENTON
Saturday freebie is Kansas State to extend the margin against defensively-porous Iowa State.
The Cyclones have not stopped too many teams from scoring, allowing 31 points or more in each of their last 4 games, as Iowa State has lost each of those 4, and has failed to cover in each of their last pair of losses.
The Wildcats were able to snap a 3 game slide last week with a convincing 35-12 win and cover at home over West Virginia, and a similar win would not be as surprise in Manhattan where Bill Snyder's team has covered 9 of their last 12 games.
On the surface it appears to be a big number, but with the Wildcats able to control the time of possession, expect the margin to slip to right around 21 points come the final gun.
K-State the call.
4* KANSAS STATE
JEFF BENTON
Saturday freebie on Boston College plus the points at home against the Virginia Tech Hokies.
V-Tech is off a stunning loss at home to the Duke Blue Devils in a game they were favored by almost two touchdowns in. Not only that, but last year the Hokies needed a 41 yard field goal with just over a minute left in regulation to force overtime before dispatching Boston College in Chestnut Hill, 30-23 in overtime.
True, Boston College has dropped their last pair of games, but both have come away from home. At home the Eagles have been able to cover 6 in a row against FBS opponents, and they are also 5-1 against the spread the last 6 times the Gobblers have come to Alumni Stadium.
Virginia Tech only averages 19 points per game, so it is doubtful they pull away from BC in this spot on the road where Frank Beamer's team is just 1-8 against the spread their last 9 away games.
Take the points.
1* BOSTON COLLEGE
BRAD WILTON
Taking a look now at a comp play for this Saturday college card, and I feel bad for the Fighting Illini as they make the trip to Happy Valley to face a Penn State team that got their noses rubbed in the dirt last weekend in Columbus.
Ohio State never did call off the dogs, as the Buckeyes walloped the Nittany Lions by a 63-14 count that saw QB Christian Hackenberg suffer a shoulder injury.
Hackenberg is probable for today's game, but regardless, the Illini defense can't stop anyone, as Illinois is allowing nearly 40 points per game for the year, and the number moves to 46 ppg in conference play this season! Penn State is going to score, count on that!
Bill O'Brien has done a fine job getting his team prepared after a loss in his two years at the helm, as the Lions are a perfect 6-0 against the spread off a loss under O'Brien and have covered 8 of their last 10 at Beaver Stadium.
Compare those numbers to Illinois' putrid 1-6 spread mark their last 7 when getting points away from Champaign, and the choice here is an obvious one.
Penn State by at least 17 points.
3* PENN STATE