Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 20,2010

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAYS

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE YEAR

POWER ANGLE PLAY - Mississippi +16.5 over LSU

Ole Miss is off a blowout loss to Tennessee, while the Tigers are off a blowout win vs UL Monroe, but the funny thing here is that the Rebels accually had more yards (295-251) than the Tigers did last week. The LSU rushing defense has been poor of late, allowing 665 yards in thier last 3 games. Not good when your about to take on the 14th ranked russhing offense in Mississippi as they have churned out 219 ypg and 5.2 ypc on the year. That ground attack should really help them shorten the game. LSU's offense is rather average, putting up 28 ppg and 322 ypg and the bulk of their offense is the run game, which will work in our favor as they will help shorten the game as well. The tigers do not have an explosive offense and are only outscoring opponents by 13 ppg on the year and with both teams running the ball and keeeping that clock moving, i just don't see a blowout here. POWER ANGLES FOR THIS PLAY--- LSU is 4-18 ATS as an SEC home fav and just 3-16 ATS as home favs of 14.5 to 21, while Houston Nutt is 13-2 ATS as a dog of 10.5 to 21, while the Dog is 11-2 ATS the last 13 in the series.

Tennessee -9 over VANDERBILT

Two teams headed in opposite directions here as the Vols come in having won their last 2 by an average of 37 ppg, while the Commodores come in having gone 0-5 SU & ATS in their last 5 games, being outscored by 30 ppg in those contests. Vandy has also been outscored by 22.9 ppg in SEC play this year. every game is important for the Vols right now, as they know that one more loss will knock them out of a bowl game. Tennessee is highly motivated, they have big edges on both sides of the ball and are playing a team that has given up. To me that's a recipe for a blowout. Tennessee by 21+

4 UNIT PLAY

BYU -29.5 over New Mexico

The Cougars are on a roll right now as they have outscored their last 2 opponents by a 104-17 count. WOW. That was vs CSU and UNLV, 2 teams that are far better than this Lobos squad. New Mexico is 1-9 on the year and have been outscored by 26 ppg overall and 31.6 ppg on the road. They are 115th in scoring offense (16.6 ppg) and 119th in scoring defense (42.6 ppg). This is a bad team. The Cougars may be just 89th in scoring offense (23.3 ppg), but in they seemed to have figured things out as they are averaging 43 ppg in their last 3 games. Defense has not been a problem for this team as they are 47th in total defense (351.3 ypg) and 49th in points allowed (23.3 ppg). Let's see, CSU beats New Mexico by 24 and BYU beats CSU by 39. So BYU wins by 63? Maybe not by that much, but this team is focused and they have a bowl game in their sights, so I look for them to win by at least 35 here.

3 UNIT PLAYS

TEMPLE -7.5 over Ohio

The Owls are a sparkling 8-0 ATS the last 2 years when avenging a road loss. Defense is the name of the game in Temple and their isn't a hotter one in the MAC. Temple comes in having allowed just 10 points in their last 3 games and two of those games were shutouts. Temple is 10th in the nation in scoring defense at 17.5 ppg and 18th in total defense at 312 ypg. as i stated above, the Owls have allowed just 10 total points in their last 3 games, well they also have allowed just 179.3 ypg and a skinny 3.0 yards per playover that span as well. Ohio comes in hot and their defense is 33rd in total (333 ypg) and 33rd in scoring (21 ppg), but over their last 3 games the defense has allowed 340 ypg and a not-so-stellare 5.1 yards per play. after starting out just 1-3 on the year the Bobcats have turned it around, but thisis a very tough Temple squad that is 5-0 in the MAC and have played the tougher schedule. Temple has outscored their opponents by 12 ppg at home and they should win this one by just about that much. No

TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Navy/ Arkansas State Over 64

The two teams have be involved in some wild games of late. Navy comes in averaging 45 ppg in their last 4 games, while the defense has allowed 35.5 ppg inb their last 3 games. Those last 3 games for Navy has averaged 83.7 ppg. Arkansas State comes in averaging 39.3 ppg in their last 4 games and while their defense has been better during their recent 3 game home statnd, they have allowed 34.6 ppg on the road this year. Navy has faced 2 SBC foes in their history and those games have averaged 98 ppg. This one may not be that high, but both teams are scoring at will right now and with a couple of struggling defenses I can see this one eclipsing 70 points.

MIAMI +2 over Virginia Tech

The canes look like they are primed for a strong finish as they have won 2 in a row and have outgained their last 5 opponents by 149 ypg. Miami is off a 25 point win vs Georgia Tech and that's the same team that Va. Tech could only beat by 7. The Miami defense has been tough this year, ranking 19 in total defense (314.3 ypg) and 15th in points allowed (18.2 ppg). The Hokies offense has been good this year, but some of their recent stats have been padded by games vs Duke and Wake Forest. The offenses are about equal and a special teams edge goes to the Hokies, but Miami has the defensive edge, they are at home and playing with revenge from last years 31-7 loss to these Hokies. The Miami defense will be the difference as they pull a close one out in the 4th quarter.

Sports Insights

Wisconsin vs. Michigan

Wisconsin lit up the scoreboard last week, scoring 83 points against Indiana for the school's most prolific offensive performance in 95 years. Even though running back John Clay did not play due to a sprained right knee, the Badgers still rushed for 338 yards and six touchdowns in the 63-point victory.

Michigan overcame five turnovers in their last game, a 27-16 win over Purdue. Luckily for the Wolverines, their defense forced five turnovers of their own and held the Boilermakers' offense to just 256 total yards.

Wisconsin opened as a 6-point favorite at Pinnacle and, after scoring 11 touchdowns last week, is currently receiving 84% of spread bets and 85% of moneyline wagers. The line, however, has dropped to -4 at many of the market-setting sportsbooks tracked by Sports Insights. This reverse-line movement has triggered four positive Smart Money Plays and one positive Steam Move on Michigan, indicating sharp money is coming down on the home underdog.

According to our Betting Trends data, this is the second-most heavily bet NCAA football game, in terms of the number of bets, of the weekend. Contrarian betting is a key factor when selecting our NCAA Football Square Plays, which are 38-16 (+19.13 units) this season. The lopsided betting percentages and heavy action make this game a prime Square Play candidate, convincing us to follow the Smart Money, bet against the public and grab Michigan and the points.

Michigan +4.5

Hollywood Sports

San Jose St. at Hawaii
Prediction: Hawaii

Coming off their bye week, the Warriors (7-3) have had plenty of time to rest and prepare after their embarrassing 41-7 loss at Boise State two weeks ago. They should take out their frustrations against a San Jose State team (1-9) that is being outscored by 27 PPG while giving up 39 PPG and 500 total YPG away from home. Hawaii is scoring 43 PPG at home while totaling over 530 yards off offense. The Spartans do not have the firepower to keep up with their run-and-shoot offense as they are gaining only 291.4 total YPG (111th in the FBS) while scoring only 14.1 PPG (119th in the FBS). Hawaii's defense has been solid at home as well as they are holding their guests to just 21.6 PPG along with only 352.4 total YPG. San Jose State has failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 games away from home. Hawaii, on the other hand, has covered 22 of their last 31 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Motivated to redeem themselves from that bad loss to Boise State and facing a defense that has not stopped anyone this season, Hawaii will score plenty of points to cover the big number.

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Mississippi at LSUFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: MississippiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Ole Miss travels to LSU to meet the Tigers Saturday afternoon in this SEC clash in The Pit. What the Rebels lack in defensive deficiencies they more than make up for with an offense that averages 10 PPG and 83 YPG more than the 16-point favored Tigers. In setting this game up, the first factor that surfaced was LSU?s ?impressive? looking 51-0 whitewash win over Louisiana Monroe last Saturday. Most pundits felt a letdown was in order for Les Miles? troops as they were coming off their ?game of the year? effort against Alabama the preceding week. A closer look at last week?s result tells a different tale, however, as the Bengals managed a meager 251 yards of offense in the win over the Warhawks (the fewest ULM has surrendered this season), as a huge five turnover advantage helped pave the way to the end zone for LSU. On the flip side, Ole Miss was ambushed against a fired-up Tennessee squad, making this a DBO (Double Blow Out) deluxe. With the Rebels in need of wins in each of its final two games in order to become bowl eligible, figure they will come with everything they?ve got. Given the fact that Miles is just 7-5 straight up at home in days games with LSU, look for the Mad Hatter to fall to 0-3 SU and ATS against Houston Nutt in this eye-opening upset special. We recommend a 1-unit play on Mississippi.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Nebraska vs. Texas A&M
Play: Nebraska -2
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Nebraska is coming off a very sloppy win over the weekend and that will have the Huskers especially focused this week. Nebraska needs just one more victory to clinch the Big XII North and this is the time to get it done. If the Huskers cannot get it done, they then have to beat Colorado next week which is a likely thing to happen but there is no guarantee in a rivalry game. Nebraska is a 4-0 record on the road searching for its ninth straight true road victory, ninth straight Big XII road victory and 10th straight victory in November. The Aggies are playing their best football of the year as it is no coincidence it happened with a change at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill taking over for an ineffective Jerrod Johnson. The offense has definitely picked things up however going up against the Huskers defense will be a challenge. The four straight wins are nice but they will be facing a stiff test and one that has a lot of added motivation. The Aggies have their own motivation for sure but matchups do in fact favor the Huskers as well. Texas A&M is ranked 12th nationally in total offense and eighth in passing offense so this is a unit that can move the ball. The problem is that opposing quarterbacks have found life miserable this season against Nebraska’s defense, and this will be Tannehill’s first test against a passing defense ranked higher than 75th in the nation as he has faced passing defenses ranked 75th, 102nd and 118th. It is very unlikely he has the same amount of success against a defense ranked sixth overall and second in passing. The last two games for the Huskers were anything but championship material but there was a reason for it. Starting quarterback Taylor Martinez missed the overtime win against Iowa St. and last week, the gameplan was conservative against a horrendous Kansas team but it will be opened up this week as Martinez gets healthier. The Huskers haven’t had an offensive play from scrimmage longer than 29 yards in their last two games, after having 27 plays cover 30 or more yards in their first eight games. That is because of Martinez. The Aggies are ranked seventh in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency and have had some success slowing down a fair number of strong offenses to date. This is a different challenge however as the Aggies best performances came against teams that have a lot more success passing the ball than running it, Arkansas and Oklahoma. That could be considered surprising since the Texas A&M defense is ranked 102nd against the pass and 13th against the run. The problem is the Aggies' tendency to give up long drives. The Huskers fall into a simple yet solid situation as well. Play against teams in November games where the line is between +3 and -3 after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. This situation is 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) over the last five seasons. Nebraska is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as road favorites of a touchdown or less while the Aggies are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog of a field goal or less. Also, Texas A&M is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games against teams averaging 5.25 ypc or better. 3* (385) Nebraska Cornhuskers

Tony GeorgeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Virginia vs. Boston College
Play: Boston College -7
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Boston College is not a team that warrants this type of number often, but in this case I like them to steamroll Virginia. The Eagles are the best team in the nation at stopping the run, 75 yards per game allowed and Virginias RB Keith Payne is not 100 percent right now but expects to play. BCs defense is ranked number 14 overall in the nation.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
That means Virginia is going to have to throw to win against a defense allowing just 13 ppg their last 3 games and their QB is average at best. BC has won three in a row and beat Clemson their last home game by 6 points, a far better team than Virginia. Virginia is 0-3 on the road their last 3 games and have allowed 28 ppg in those games and have allowed 38 ppg their last 3 games overall. This is Senior day and the last home game so there is a spark for the Eagles in that regard as well on Saturday. BC no offensive juggernaut, but will keep Virginia at bay on offense and pull out a 10 point win here.

JIM FEISTFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at TEXAS
PLAY: TEXAS -21
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Florida Atlantic (4-5 SU/3-5 ATS) is on the road again, playing their 5th road game over the last 7 weeks. And they run into an angry bunch of Longhorns who are hungry for a win over anybody. The FA Owls average only 18 points and the defense is soft and can be suspect against good passing teams. Even in a 17-16 win at Western Kentucky they mustered only 215 total yards and come off a 24-23 home win over Lafayette has a 10-point favorite. Texas (4-6 SU, 2-8 ATS) could use a cupcake game. Texas (2-5 Big 12) has lost four consecutive games at home in a single season for the first time since 1956. They end that streak here with a blowout. Play Texas!

SEAN MURPHYFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Purdue @ Michigan St.
PICK: Under48
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
There's not much to like about this Purdue offense these days.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Boilermakers have scored a grand total of 39 points over their last four games, and there's no sign of improvement on the way. It's hard to envision them suddenly coming to life against a tough Michigan State defense on Saturday - in fact, I'll be surprised if they're able to score more than 10 points.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Purdue did score 37 points in a losing effort against MSU last season, but that was a much different Boilermakers squad. QB Joey Elliot, RB Ralph Bolden, and WR Keith Smith were the keys in that game, racking up big-time yardage. None of those three will be involved in this one.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The good news for Purdue is, it has improved defensively over its last three games, going from 44 points allowed against Illinois three weeks ago to 27 given up against Michigan last Saturday.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Michigan State possesses a highly-efficient, but not necessarily explosive offensive attack. On the way to their 9-1 start they've scored more than 35 points in a game only twice and neither of those performances came against Big Ten opponents.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
What the Spartans have done is played lights out defense here in East Lansing. They're allowing just 15 points per game on 310 total yards per contest at home this season. If you don't possess a well-balanced offense, you're not going to have much success against Sparty, and that sets up a difficult matchup for Purdue and its punchless offense.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I've talked time and time again about just how profitable the 'over' has been in Spartans road games in recent years, but the opposite can be said here at home. Note that the under is 16-7 in their last 23 games as a double-digit home favorite.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
This is essentially a 'name your score' type of game for Michigan State. Look for the Spartans to lean heavily on their ground game and pound the Boilers into submission in a rather uneventful early afternoon matchup on Saturday. Take the under.

Tom StrykerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
UTEP @ Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -17.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
When you think about Tulsa, you attention immediately turns to the offensive side of the ball. Surprisingly, the Golden Hurricane’s defense has been making some noise lately.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
In last week’s upset win at Houston, Tulsa picked off five passes against the Cougars including a pair inside the red zone. The Golden Hurricane stop unit has been quite impressive inside the friendly confines of H.A. Chapman Stadium too. Facing Bowling Green, Central Arkansas, Tulane and Rice, Tulsa limited those four foes to an average of 21.3 points and 391 yards per game and forced nine turnovers!
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Since an embarrassing 65-28 loss at Oklahoma State, Tulsa has cranked things up a notch posting a jaw-dropping 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS record in its last seven games. At home with momentum coming off a straight up win, the Golden Hurricane has been tough to beat as well posting a respectable 32-14 SU and 25-15 ATS record. Those two team trends are nice but this next college system is what really makes this investment pop.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Since 1980, college football teams that close with back-to-back road games are a dismal 49-74-2 ATS provided this is their season finale and they are going into revenge. If our guest is priced as an underdog of +10’ or more, this situation crashes to a stiff 5-17-1 ATS including 1-9 SU and ATS if they’re matched up against a foe that checks in with momentum off two or more straight up wins. That doesn't bode well for the Miners.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Over the past 10 years, UTEP’s road record is a woeful 26-38-1 ATS including just 5-16-1 ATS if the Miners are going into revenge. Last year, UTEP (+9) upset the Golden Hurricane in El Paso by the score of 28-24. In 2008, the Miners traveled here and got their doors blown off 77-35. If Texas El Paso continues to turn the ball over, the ‘Canes opportunistic defense will make them pay dearly. Take Tulsa.

LARRY NESSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Virginia Tech @ Miami FL
PICK: Miami FL +2FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Miami is a football team that may be redefining themselves for the better in the home stretch of their season. While Hurricanes' starting QB Jacory Harris will likely miss his third straight game after suffering a concussion in their upset loss to Virginia three weeks ago, this loss has compelled their offense to focus even more on their running game. The results have been very encouraging. Miami rushed for 277 yards on the ground while gaining over 500 yards of offense in its 35-10 win over Georgia Tech last week. That makes it two wins in a row for the Hurricanes with Stephen Morris taking the snaps under center. Morris completed an efficient 10-of-18 passes for 230 yards and a TD against the Yellow Jackets. While he does not take the gunslinger mentality to the field that Harris does, that may be a good thing given the fact that Harris had tossed 11 interceptions this season. Miami's reliance on its running attack has produced 224 rushing YPG over the last three games. The 'Canes have two talented RBs in Damian Berry (763 yards, 4.9 YPC) and Lamar Miller (462 yards, 5.8 YPC). While Frank Beamer's Virginia Tech club has a very good defense, the Hokies have shown some vulnerabilities against the run this season, allowing 155.1 YPG (65th in the FBS). Offensively, the Hokies are rushing for more than 200 YPG but their passing game remains a question mark. QB Tyrod Taylor leads an offense that is only 70th in the FBS by gaining 206.5 passing YPG. The Hokies are likely to be forced into being even more one-dimensional than usual against a Hurricanes defense that is 3rd in the FBS with their 147.9 passing YPG average. Overall, the tough Miami defense ranks 15th in scoring (18.2 PPG) and 19th in yards allowed (314.3 YPG). The Hurricanes have been even stingier on their home turf, holding teams to merely 132.2 passing YPG and only 281 total YPG. Virginia Tech comes off a 26-10 win at North Carolina where the Hokies were the beneficiary of six Tar Heel turnovers. They are unlikely to be so fortunate in their second road game in a row. Despite their 6-0 mark in the ACC Coastal Division, the Hokies have not clinched a berth to the ACC Championship game. Miami is in second place in the Coastal with its 5-2 record and a win over Virginia Tech followed by a Hokies loss to Virginia next week would see the Hurricanes earn the nod. Virginia Tech 'spanked' Miami by a 31-7 score last season, so the Hurricanes will have multiple reasons for a good showing in this contest. Miami IS dangerous in situations like this, as the Hurricanes have covered SIX of their last eight games as the underdog. I look for them to get it done on their home turf.

TEDDY COVERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Illinois @ Northwestern
PICK: Under 49.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Big 10 made a decision on Friday to use only one end zone at Wrigley Field this weekend for the Northwestern – Illinois game. One end zone was just a few feet away from the ivy covered walls in right field, creating a situation where players could get hurt, despite the padding put in place to reduce the injury concerns.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
At first glance, this move doesn’t seem to bring up anything where bettors could get an advantage. However, a quick look at the forecast in Chicago for Saturday – temperatures in the 40’s with a steady wind blowing from the East. That means neither team will have the wind at their backs at any point during the game – we’ll see a crosswind or a headwind for both offenses throughout the contest.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Northwestern is playing without their star quarterback Dan Persa, who leads the nation with 73% completions for the season. Without Persa in the lineup, redshirt frosh Evan Watkins will get his first collegiate start. At 6-6, 245, Watkins is a fullback with a QB’s arm, but his inexperience is likely to result in a conservative, ‘run first’ gameplan for the Wildcats.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Illinois, too, is a run-first team. Illini QB Nathan Scheelhaase has only thrown for 1482 yards in his first ten games and Northwestern does not have a dominant run defense. Given the playing conditions and the QB’s on the field in this strange venue for both squads, we can expect a classic Big 10 slugfest – three yards and a cloud of dust. That puts this bettor squarely on the Under in a game likely to lack any sort of offensive flow for either squad. 2* Take the Under.

Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Troy State vs. South Carolina
Play: Troy State +22
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Troy Trojans are having a disappointing season with a 5-4 record. After winning eight games or more the last four seasons they would need a win here and victories over Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic to equal the feat. While they have been a bit down this year keep in mind the last time the Trojans faced a major program they put a huge scare into the Oklahoma State Cowboys. They led that game by a touchdown at the half before falling 41-38 to the one loss boys from Stillwater.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
South Carolina is off their biggest win since Steve Spurrier took over the program. The victory last week over his old club Florida put them in the SEC title game against Auburn. Next week they face in-state rival Clemson in their traditional regular season finale. They have lost 2 of the last 3 meetings with the Tigers. So the Gamecocks are off a huge game with even bigger games on deck the next two outings. In the meantime they take on a team from the Sun Belt Conference having a down season.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
We've seen the Gamecocks play to their competition all season. After beating Georgia they lost to the spread by 14 points the next week against Furman. After beating Alabama the Gamecocks lost at Kentucky as close to a touchdown favorite. South Carolina is a perfect 7-0 straight up against Sun Belt competition including beating Troy twice by an average of 17 points. We look for a duplicate final here as the Trojans stay comfortably under the number.

Bob WingerterFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Oklahoma St vs. Kansas
Play: Under 64½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The visiting team is atop the Big 12 South. They want to leave in one piece, and not have to show Oklahoma too much before they play next week, which could be for the division title if Oklahoma beats Baylor later. An under-the-radar stat about Oklahoma State has nothing to do with their offense, but what happens immediately afterwards: Their kickoff guy leads the nation in touchbacks (46) and touchback percentage (56.1%). They score, a lot, and after they kick off, the opponent gets the ball on the 20-yard-line many, many times. Staring down a scoreboard deficit from the vantage point of an 80-yard field, and excelling at that challenge, is not something Kansas excels at. The Jayhawks do not score a lot: For instance, Oklahoma State has kicked off 82 times this season. Kansas has kicked off 36 times, fewer than any other team in a BCS conference. Below them on the chart are your Marshalls, your Memphises, your Buffalos, your Akrons. Oklahoma State has allowed 27 points per game, a far cry from the best scoring defenses in the nation like TCU (10.9), Boise State (12.8) and even West Virginia (13.2). But their schedule has been loaded with opponents you have to out-score to beat: Tulsa (38.9 ppg), Troy (33.2), Texas A&M (34.9), Texas Tech (28.6), Nebraska (35.4), Kansas State (31.8) and Baylor (33.4). You don’t need to out-score Kansas (18.4 ppg) to win. You just need to show up, let the clock run and snap the football on offense, stand around on defense.

Freddy WillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
North Carolina State vs. North Carolina
Take North Carolina -2½
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
A week ago we had the Tarheels as a big play as home under dogs against Virginia Tech. Four interceptions and two fumbles lost later they lost to Virginia Tech after opening up the game with a dominating drive that resulted in a 7-0 lead. I changed the channel I thought I could start counting my money, but the game got sloppy there and even though they held a dual threat QB much like the one they face this week to 13-28 passing and -3 yards rushing on 8 carries the turnovers were just too much to overcome.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Russell Wilson is a lot of things Tyrod Taylor is not however, but I think the Tarheels defense led by Quinton Coples 7.5 tackles up front will respond in a big way on Senior Day. We already know that Senior Deunta Williams has never beaten the Wolfpack and is calling this game, "personal." I think he'll pump up his team and Butch Davis as we know is a very good coach. After all they did just get beat by the best team in the conference one that is more balanced than NC State and has a better defense.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
TJ Yates had 4 interceptions and I think he bounces back as he only had 4 for the entire season. I expect big things and a more reasonable game plain with it being planned around the running game allowing Yates to have a more productive game. WR Dwight Jones who was dominating secondaries won't have to face off against one of the best corners in the league this week and I think that will result in a big time game with over 100 yards receiving so watch out for that.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Looking at the strength of schedule the Tarheels have had a tougher road in 7 of 8 categories. They have fought through a lot of adversity with the suspensions and more. This team has been one of my favorite bets over the years for their defense and it remains that way on Saturday. I think this line normally would be -4 or so, but because of the loss to Virginia Tech it has Vegas second guessing UNC's talent, but I'm not. I was surprised with 6 turnovers that they did not lose to Virginia Tech by more after all NC State lost by 11 to that team to giving up 41 points in their own building proving the fact that UNC's defense is much better despite what the rankings say.