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Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 20,2010

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(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Rangers +1.20 over MINNESOTA

We’re going to keep playing against these Wild as long as they’re the chalk because once again we reiterate that this club is a complete imposter. It’s almost freaky what’s happening with them. They get completely outplayed, even dominated each and every game they play and yet somehow their lame shots find the back of the net. Last night in Detroit they scored with 90 seconds left and won it in OT. The shots on net in the second period were 18-3 and the whole second period resembled a Detroit power-play. It was only the second period, the Wild didn’t belong on the same ice as the Red Wings. Minnesota pulled the same feat against the Lightning, Sharks, Flames, Washington and Columbus and frankly, it just cannot last. This one sets up nice for the Rangers. First, they were flat in Colorado and with a rather dull effort and there’s just no way they come out flat again tonight. What we have here is one team coming off a monster win against a team coming off a dull effort. We get the much better team, the Rangers, plus a nice tag in a game they have the better chance of winning in. Incidetally, Marion Gaborik returns to Minny for the first time and you know he’ll be completely stoked and so likely will his teammates. Play: N.Y. Rangers +1.20 (Risking 2 units).

ST. LOUIS -½ +1.12 over New Jersey

The Blue Notes got a much needed win last night over the Sens and barely broke a sweat in doing so. They’ve now gone 7-0-0-1 at home and this foe doesn’t present much of a challenge. The Devils are a complete dumpster-fire right now. They’ve lost four of its last five with only win over that stretch coming in OT against the last place Oilers. The Devils have scored one goal in its last two games and they’ve been shutout in three of its last seven games. Aside from Marty Brodeur being on the rack, the Devils have a slew of other key personnel on the shelf too. Johan Hedberg gets the start in goal behind a defense that’s made up of minor-league call-ups and this hard-working host with its tenacious forechecking should easily be able to exploit that. Devils are in a bad place right now with a dead-man coaching, weak goaltending and weak defense and a group of forwards that are not producing. Play: St. Louis -½ +1.12 (Risking 2 units).

 
Posted : November 20, 2010 1:11 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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SPORTS WAGERS

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson +2.11 over Lyoto Machida

Most of the gambling world will be on Lyoto Machida in this bout and that suits us just fine. Laying over 2-1 on a fighter who was knocked into oblivion his last time out is borderline insane at best. There is no question that he is a very talented mixed-martial artist but he didn't look anything like the man who had won 16 straight in his last contest, where he relinquished his Light-Heavyweight Title to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. What's even more alarming is the fact that Machida was actually dominated in his last two fights, both against Rua. He may have won via decision two back but the judges were the only people on planet earth who had him winning that fight. No one had ever really touched Machida before that fight and it certainly effected his approach, as he was tentative and shying away from Rua in the short time that the fight lasted. It was clear that the previous beating had rattled him, so won't a devastating knockout even have a more adverse effect? Jackson is the right guy for the job with 14 of his 30 career wins coming via knockout. It's also encouraging that this is his 2nd fight back after a layoff of over a year, so he should enter the fight in better shape. Anyone who saw his last fight will know that if he didn't "gas out" while inflicting ground and pound following a huge right in the third round, the outcome might have been different. Many say that this is a nightmare of a matchup for Jackson but here's hoping that the only nightmare will be the one Machida has after "Rampage" puts him to sleep. Play Quinton "Rampage" Jackson +2.11 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Hughes +1.58 over B.J. Penn

It's shocking that B.J. Penn didn't take time away from the sport to do some soul searching after being dominated in two consecutive contests by Frankie Edgar. After losing his Lightweight Title the first time around, many thought he would come out better than ever but the second time around his effort was even more uninspiring. Prior to that bout there were rumors swirling that questioned Penn's training time and dedication to the sport. Some might think that the aging Matt Hughes, now 37, is the perfect spot for him to rebound but the UFC Hall of Famer has enjoyed a resurgence in the last couple of years. He has won his last three fights with his most impressive being a submission victory over Ricardo Almedia in his last time out. Penn is also moving back up to Welterweight for this fight and he's lost his last three attempts at that level. It's hard to imagine that he could have made any major adjustments in this quick three-month turnaround since his last fight. If he hasn't taken this fight seriously the contest will be over before it even begins. You know what you are getting from Hughes, he's a workhorse who would have over prepared for this tilt. It's impossible to say the same about Penn and with those question marks it's just as impossible to play him as the chalk. This is one of those instances where we have a "fade" meeting a "play" and what's even better is that the value is on the latter of the two. Play: Matt Hughes +1.58 (Risking 2 units).

 
Posted : November 20, 2010 1:11 pm
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