Bettorsworld
Air Force at BYU
This is the time of year where you can take some of the guesswork out of handicapping. Early season handicapping requires lots of assumptions. You dig into each team, make judgment calls on their talent and so on and so forth. By this time in the year however, you have some facts to deal with. Enough games have been played that you are no longer making assumptions. The teams are what they are. This is particularly helpful in a game like this where the teams have played six common opponents.
As it is, when looking at this game and utilizing season to date stats, one would have to give Air Force a good look. They are #3 in the entire nation in turnover margin and boast a yards per point differential of almost +8 to the good. Meaning good defensive numbers and good offensive numbers. BYU no pushover for sure, with very good offensive numbers but a mediocre 15.5 on defense, making them +3 using ypp season to date. Comparing the two, Air Force is favored on a neutral field.
Now, yards per point numbers can be meaningless in college football, if you're looking at two teams that play a different strength of schedule. But in this case, we have two teams who have played a very similar schedule. Furthermore, we can break this down based on common opponents, as there are 6, and when we do so, the results are interesting to say the least.
In the six games against common opponents, Air Force has an offensive yards per point number of 12.8 and a whopping 22 defensively. BYU meanwhile, equally as impressive on offense with a 12.0, but defensively they weigh in with a 16. Good, but not great and not as good as Air Force. Once again using common opponent stats, Air Force shows up as the better team.
If you go through each teams schedule and look at games against common opponents one by one it will become evident that Air Force played better against those teams. Perhaps no game illustrates that more than TCU where Air Force lost by a field goal 20-17 and BYU was blown out 38-7.
Air Force hasn't given up more than 23 points in any one game this year while also showing they can out points on the board with the best of them. The numbers suggest they are every bit as good or better than BYU and they have a revenge motive to boot as BYU has won 5 in a row in this series. That means not one player on the Air Force squad has ever beaten BYU and for many, this will be their last chance.
The feeling here is that the number on this game is a tad too high. This game will likely be close heading into the 4th quarter with the outcome still in doubt. Getting 10 points in that scenario is right where we want to be. We'll even make a small play on the money line here as a straight up Air Force win shouldn't surprise anyone.
3* Air Force +10
1* Air Force +310 or better on the money line
Wunderdog Sports
Air Force vs. BYU
Play: Air Force +10
The Cougars looked like a BCS contender when they shocked Oklahoma 14-13 in the season opener. The shine has come off as the Sooners proved to be a much lesser team than most anticipated, disappearing from the National Title picture themselves. BYU has feasted on a lot of cupcakes since, but were humiliated by the two teams that had a chance to give them a game. They suffered blowout losses to Florida State and TCU, allowing 92 points to those two teams. Now they must face an Air Force team with a great defense (#9 in the nation in points allowed) and an improving offense. Air Force took TCU to the wire before bowing 20-17. No one has scored more than 23 points on this team all season, not even TCU. The potent Horned Frogs offense (averaging 39 points per game) were held to 20 points by the Falcons - their second lowest total of the season! So, getting 10 points in this one is big. The Falcons' offense is coming on and they have the defense that is capable of holding down BYU's offense that has shown warts against top defenses. Air Force is quietly building a very respectable program under the radar. They are 22-11 ATS overall the past three seasons. Meanwhile, BYU is 2-11 ATS since last season in conference games and they are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games following a two-game road trip. BYU has the bigger name here, but maybe not the better team. Take the Academy plus the generous points.
Lenny Del Genio
Air Force at BYU
Prediction: BYU
Coming into the season, Brigham Young was expected to contend for both the Mountain West Conference title and possibly earn the automatic qualifier for non-BCS teams in a BCS bowl. Things got off to an incredible start with a 14-13 upset of then-#3 Oklahoma in the opener, however, those BCS dreams quickly went out the window with a stunning 54-28 home loss to Florida State in Week 3 and then the MWC Title hopes disappeared with a humiliating 38-7 loss to unbeaten TCU. Since opening the season, 2-0 ATS, the Cougars have failed to cover in six of their last eight games.
That being said, few rivalry games have been as one-sided recently as this one. The fifth-year seniors at BYU are now 4-0 SU/ATS vs. the Air Force Academy, crushing the spread by a total of 46 points in those games and winning by a minimum two touchdowns every time out. The Cougars defense has continuously been able to defend the AFA option attack, holding them under this season?s average of 279 yards rushing three times in the four game span.
BYU QB Max Hall matched Ty Detmer?s school record with 29 career wins last week with a 24-19 victory over winless New Mexico. That gave the team an 8-2 record for a fourth straight season, a school record. Not only have the Cougars averaged 41 PPG during its current win streak over the Air Force, but the average win has come by an average of 20 PPG. A 23-6 SU all-time edge shows just how one-sided this rivalry is and the line does not reflect that this year. Take BYU
DAVID MALINSKY
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee
PICK: Tennessee -17
Lane Kiffin put a bright Bulls Eye on his back when he took over the head spot in Knoxville. But while he would have liked to have walked away from this season with those well-played road losses at Florida and Alabama being a sign that the program has turned the corner and is on track under his leadership, the off-field incidents of the past two weeks, and that second-half collapse at Ole Miss on Saturday, have that Bulls Eye shining as brightly as at any time all season. That means a concerted focus to throw a knockout punch in the last game in front of the home fans, and given Kiffin’s ego we can rely on that intensity being there. The practice reports back it up – he gave the team Sunday and Monday off and told them to be prepared for some heavy hitting during the week, and that has been the case. And with the ideal opponent coming to town, this one gets ugly.
We cashed a 4* ticket against Vanderbilt with Kentucky last week, noting the travails of that level of program having to play 12 games in as many weeks this season, and the Commodores were dominated by much more than the 24-13 final score would show. They got out-rushed 306-82, and did not have a first down in the second half. And Bobby Johnson, a coach that we respect a lot, is aware of the toll that has been taken - "Can I guarantee that we won't have another year without a bye again? No, I can't, but we will definitely try to make sure that doesn't happen again."
The problem has not just been facing the usual S.E.C. meat grinder, but also having to run into physical Georgia Tech three games back. Now it only goes from bad to worse, with the Vandy defense losing top CB Myron Lewis last week (from Johnson - ”It’s an All-S.E.C. caliber corner so that’s not going to help us at all not having him out there. It’s not just regular downs, it’s the nickel situations and the dime situations and that affects all those defensive backs. It’s just going to be pretty tough to replace him.”). But it may not just end there – LB Patrick Benoist, who is second on the team in tackles, has yet to practice this week after suffering a concussion in Saturday’s loss, and we would expect them to err on the side of caution if there are any questions at all.
That depleted defense faces the same up-hill battle that has been their constant in recent weeks – an offense that lacks playmakers can not control the ball long enough to give them any respite. Vandy has only scored 46 points in seven S.E.C. games (they got nine more on a safety and a kickoff return), and on the league road they have not reach the end zone in the last 157:20 of playing time. To save you the calculation time, that is nearly 10.5 full quarters. Now they face an athletic defense that will be hungry off of Saturday’s meltdown, which makes production even harder to come by.
Kiffin has had no qualms about rolling at home vs. a weak opponent – in his three games on this field laying double figures the Vols have gone 2-1 ATS, scoring 153 points and gaining 1,627 yards. Ominous from a sportsmanship standpoint is that they threw 104 passes in those games, but for our own particular purposes that is actually a good thing this week.
LARRY NESS
Colorado St. @ New Mexico
PICK: New Mexico +4.5
Riddle me this. Has any school ever followed a 70-point outburst by losing its next 14 games? I don't know the actual answer to that question but let me introduce you to the New Mexico Lobos. New Mexico beat San Diego State 70-7 in Las Cruces back on 10/18/08 but hasn't won since. The Lobos followed that 63-point win by losing their final four games of the 2008 season and are currently one of three, 0-10 schools in 2009. The team's 14-game losing streak (4-10 ATS) is the second-longest active losing streak next to Western Kentucky, which has lost 18 in a row. The Lobos are off an excellent effort this past Saturday, losing 24-19 at home to BYU, which is currently ranked 19th in the latest AP poll. New Mexico QB Porterie played one of his better games of 2009, completing 28-of-44 for 272 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. This is New Mexico's home finale and the Lobos finish the season with a visit to Fort Worth on November 28. Simply put, fat chance the Lobos will beat the Horned Frogs, who will likely be playing with a BCS bowl berth on the line. That leaves this game vs Colorado State as New Mexico's "last chance!" The Lobos couldn't ask for a better opponent. The Rams opened the 2009 season by winning their first three games, the last of which came over Nevada, 35-20. That result is hard to fathom at this point, as the Wolf Pack have won all seven of their games since that loss (averaging 50.0 PPG), while CSU has dropped seven straight, going 1-6 ATS. The Rams had last week off but I'm willing to back embattled New Mexico head coach Mike Locksley to grab a much-needed first win. Take New Mexico.
MATT FARGO
Ohio St. @ Michigan
PICK: Michigan +12
Ohio St. has dominated this series in recent years as it has won five straight meetings including a 42-7 victory last season. In my opinion this is the worst Ohio St. team since this streak began and there is no way it should be favored by this many points on the road in a major rivalry game. The Buckeyes clinched a trip to the Rose Bowl with their win over Iowa last week and that is pretty much by default as no team in this conference deserves a trip to any BCS Bowl game. This is one of the worst seasons the Big Ten has had in quite some time and the fact that Iowa was atop the conference just two weeks ago and ranked number four in the nation proves that. This game is much bigger for Michigan. It needs to win to become bowl eligible which would stop the bleeding of a four-game losing streak as well as a six-game conference losing skid. The seniors will be playing their final home game ever at the Big House knowing that they are 0-3 against the Buckeyes and getting swept at home would be the worst possible scenario. The Wolverines have been blown out twice on the road during this recent stretch, which also includes a two-point loss against Purdue at home. Three of the six losses this season have been by a combined 10 points this is definitely one of the better six-loss teams in the country. Senior offensive lineman Mark Ortmann and senior defensive end Brandon Graham were going to make sure the rest of the team understood how big this game was and what it means to the program as the pair held a players-only meeting to get the team on the same page and prepared for Saturday's contest. These types of meetings are sometimes overblown but in a case like this where there are now outside things going on off the field, it is a big step. Michigan has been woeful on defense in the second half during the losing streak, as evidenced in the latest loss to Wisconsin where the Wolverines were outscored 24-7 in the second half in a 45-24 defeat. In the 38-36 loss against Purdue, Michigan was outscored 28-12 after halftime and the week before that, it was outscored by Illinois 31-0 in the final two quarters after taking a 13-7 lead into halftime. Last and certainly not last, it was shutout by Penn St. 16-0 in the final 30 minutes making it a total deficit of 99-19 in the second half during this losing streak. To beat Ohio St., Michigan needs to force quarterback Terrelle Pryor into mistakes and that can easily happen. Pryor’s numbers are average at best as he is completing just over 55 percent of his passed while throwing 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. A win here for Michigan avoids back-to-back losing seasons for the first time in 46 years so there is a half of a century’s worth of history to avoid. The Wolverines do fall into a very good situation based on the recent success of Ohio St. Play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg going up against a team that is between +5 and -5 ppg in scoring differential after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 48-22 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1992. Even though it is a rivalry game, Michigan had nothing to play for last season and it showed as it limped in to finish 3-9 on the season. The Wolverines have a lot more at stake this season and they will keep this one closer than expected. 3* Michigan Wolverines
Joseph D'Amico
Kentucky vs. Georgia
Play: Kentucky +9
The oddsmakers are giving Georgia too much credit here. Both teams are 6-4. Kentucky has covered 2 of their last 3 meetings in Georgia. The Wildcat's are now healthy, getting back their big offensive weapons in Cobb and Locke. The pair lit up Vanderbilt a week ago to combine for 243 YR and 3 TD's. The Georgia offense has struggled, scoring just 22 PPG their last 7 games vs. FBS teams. The Bulldog's now have 21 giveaways. The Wildcat's are 4-0 ATS their last 4 road games. The Bulldog's are 3-7 ATS their last 10 vs. teams with a winning record, 2-9 ATS their last 11 at home, and 5-14 ATS their last 19 overall. Kentucky covers the number.
Black Widow
1* on Ohio Bobcats -1
Northern Illinois has not won at Ohio since 1982. Don't expect them to steal a win here Saturday as Ohio defends their home turf once again. Ohio has won 5 of their last 6 games, and they keep finding ways to win. Ohio is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. The Bobcats are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. Frank Solich finally has this program turned around, and Ohio has a chance to win the MAC East if they were to win out. The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. NIU has had a very easy schedule of late, and they won't be prepared for the effort they get from a very solid Bobcats' squad Saturday. The Bobcats are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Ohio continues to roll Saturday, setting up a showdown with MAC East-leading Temple next week. Take the Bobcats and lay the points.
Carlo Campanella
Maryland vs. Florida State
Florida State (5-5) has won 3 of their last 4 games and is looking for another victory this season in order to be Bowl eligible. Hosting a 2-8 Maryland squad that's a winless 0-4 on the road this season. Maryland seems to have toss in the towel and just waiting for the season to end as they've now lost 5 straight games, including their last 3 by a combined score of 91 to 43 even though their opponents handed them 8 Turnovers during those three efforts. Florida State won 37-3 in Maryland last year and have now won by an average of 26 points per game while improving to an impressive 17-2 SU during the last 19 meetings, including a perfect 9-0 SU in Tallahassee, Florida. Lay the double digits with FSU at home now that the offense is finally on track, averaging 31.9 points per game.
7* Play On Florida State
Jack Clayton
Duke at Miami
Pick: Duke
David Cutcliffe has a terrific offensive mind and has down wonders at Duke (5-5) in juts two years. They don’t run the football much, but senior QB Thaddeus Lewis (16 TDs, 6 INTs) has been great, on an offense averaging 28 points and 308 yards passing. They are too big a dog here and have more than enough offense in the mold Miami climate. Play Duke.
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Texas -27.5 vs Kansas
Rice +6.5 vs UTEP
South Florida -11.5 vs Louisville
UCLA – 4.5 vs Arizona State
UConn +6 vs Notre Dame
Arkansas -11 vs Mississippi State
Mississippi -4 vs
Middle Tennessee -10 vs Arkansas State
Single Plays
Wisconsin -7 vs Northwestern
Rutgers -8.5 vs Syracuse
Clemson -21 vs Virginia
Indiana +3 vs Purdue
Florida State -19 vs Maryland
Temple -13 vs Kent State
Oregon State -31 vs Washington State
Missouri -14.5 vs Iowa State
Houston -23.5 vs Memphis
Louisiana Tech +9 vs Fresno
Arizona +6 vs Oregon
Southern Mississippi -8 vs Tulsa
Tony George
Connecticut vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -6
Last home game for the Irish and all the scrutiny and public backlash directed at beleaguered head coach Weis is deplorable. While I am not personally a big fan of the Irish, I am a fan of teams who make me money, and last week I cashed them in as a dog at Pitt. The entire world, every publication and every TV show you watch has U Conn winning this outright in the land of Touchdown Jesus this Saturday. I do not buy it one bit. With all the action on U Conn, why not one line move off of 6 points as of Friday yet? Because Vegas oddsmakers are BEGGING you to take U Conn, I say play the contrarian on this play. Do not be fooled, Notre Dame is vastly superior in talent in this game.
The Irish have the best offense on the field at home, and the best playmakers by far. Notre Dame is 9th in the USA in total yards on offense. U Conn has done nothing but lose the past 3 weeks and give up huge plays. They may be the most over respected programs in division I football. U Conn’s pass defense is deplorable and they are giving up over 28 points on the road this season. Yes they have had a week off to get ready, but have NO illusions, Notre Dames players love their coach and will rise to the occasion on senior day in Sotuhbend and get a big win for him. With Stanford on deck for a road trip, this is an absolute MUST WIN for the Irish. Expect QB Clausen to have a HUGE day and for Notre Dame to pull out all the stops against a defense built to stop no one.
Bob Wingerter
Oregon vs. Arizona U
Play: Arizona U +6
Better defense, as a home underdog. The only games Arizona has lost on this field since last season were to senior-talent laden USC and Oregon State, both last year, both close games. If it looks like a Duck, walks like a Duck, quacks like a Duck, then it must be a Duck. If it’s a Duck, then it doesn’t know how to win late-season games away from home -- any important game away from home, actually. Oregon’s passing game is suspect, and Arizona has the nation’s 20th-ranked run defense. Oregon’s defense will allow yards. Against the worst offenses, they get turnovers to mask the weaknesses. Arizona’s offense gets more yards per game (429) than Oregon (415).
Marc Lawrence
Air Force at BYU
PLAY: Air Force
The Falcons fly into Provo to take on the Cougars in a Mountain West Conference clash Saturday afternoon with quintuple revenge on their minds. When BYU opened the season with a stunning upset of Oklahoma, the Cougars were immediately anointed as BCS Busters for 2009. But following a pair of humbling setbacks to Florida State and TCU both at home the Y has pretty much dropped out of the national spotlight. The Force, meanwhile, enters on a 3-0 SU and ATS win streak and is 6-0 ATS as MWC road dogs of 13 or less points, plus theyre 6-1 ATS when flying away from Colorado Springs off consecutive home wins. But what we really like about this years Air Force edition is the defense: improving each week, the stop unit has held four of its last five foes to season low or 2nd low yards. With BYU looking dead ahead to a major revenger with state-rival Utah, we'll grab the points in this upset maker.
TEDDY COVERS
Minnesota @ Iowa
PICK: Minnesota +11
Iowa has fought the good fight this year. The Hawkeyes were expected to be a mid-level Big 10 team. Instead, Kirk Ferentz guided his squad to a 9-0 record to start the season, putting the Hawkeyes in the middle of the national championship discussion. A home loss to Northwestern two weeks ago ended that discussion. An OT loss at Ohio State last week ended their Rose Bowl hopes. Now, all the Hawkeyes are is a tired (no bye week), banged up (starting QB Ricky Stanzi is out), shell of the squad they were a month ago.
Let’s not forget how grueling this stretch has been for the Hawkeyes, playing their twelfth consecutive Saturday. They rallied from behind to beat Wisconsin. They rallied from behind twice in the fourth quarter, winning on the last play of the game at Michigan State. They rallied from behind against Indiana, needing a near miracle to win the game at all, after trailing by three scores in the second half. Iowa tried to rally from behind in the Northwestern loss, another ‘down-to-the-wire’ finish. And, last week, they rallied from behind once again, falling short in OT at the Horseshoe in Columbus. Yes, that’s five straight ‘barnburner’ type ballgames.
The Hawkeyes have not been good favorites this year, despite all of the winning. They were 21 point chalk against Arkansas State, but won by a single field goal. They couldn’t cover as a TD+ favorite against Michigan, despite five Wolverines turnovers. Their cover as double digit chalk against Indiana was arguably the single most fraudulent pointspread cover of the entire college football season, and they followed that up with a home loss as two TD favorites against Northwestern. This Iowa team is not poised for a big blowout win and cover on senior day.
Minnesota lost 55-0 at home to the Hawkeyes last year, by far their worst loss of the season, a loss that they are still talking about one year later. Tight end Nick Tow-Arnett: “To get beat like that ... it still hurts. We're a lot stronger now than at the end of last year. Defensive tackle Eric Small: “They probably don’t respect us very much….”. Linebacker Nate Triplett: “It wasn't so much shock as being really disappointed in the way we had played. It was a big rival and we weren't in the game….I love it (to beat Iowa on Saturday). It would make my career.” Minnesota is certainly not the better team on paper, but games aren’t played on paper. 2* Take Minnesota.