SEAN MURPHY
Memphis @ Houston
PICK: Houston -23.5
I fully expect the Houston Cougars to vent their frustration following last Saturday's upset loss at Central Florida. The Memphis Tigers are the perfect opponent to line up against this week, as they come in lifeless off of four consecutive losses both SU and ATS.
In fact, Memphis is just 2-8 SU and ATS this season. It's quite simply been a disastrous season for the Tigers, particularly on the defensive side of the football, where they've allowed 38.8 points per game on 459.2 total yards per game away from home. They're still searching for their first ATS road win in five games this season.
Houston has been downgraded by the oddsmakers following back-to-back ATS losses. Of course, they split those two games SU, and both came on the road, where they're just 3-3 ATS on the season. Here at home, they're a perfect 3-0 ATS in lined contests.
As bad as Houston has been on defense at times this season, they have held their own against the pass at home, allowing just 6.7 yards per pass play. That's key this week, as Memphis hasn't been able to move the ball with any consistency on the ground, averaging 3.9 yards per rush. If the Cougars can take away their passing game, they're going to have a tough time keeping within four scores.
Houston has faced a tough slate of opponents over its last four games. The last time the Cougars faced a team on par with the Tigers was back on October 17th, when they routed Tulane 44-16 in New Orleans.
This is a game where Houston's offense should really shine. They've got a chance to really flex their muscle in their final two home games (they'll face Rice next week). I'll lay the points in what should be a wire-to-wire blowout. Take Houston.
ALEX SMART
Baylor @ Texas A&M
PICK: Texas A&M -4.5
The Texas A&M Aggies will have their bowl hopes on the line at home on Saturday afternoon when they take on the Baylor Bears. This could also be the final chance for HC Mike Sherman to salvage his job, as he could be history if A&M doesn't qualify for a bowl game. Though the Aggies still have one game remaining, it's unlike that they beat mighty Texas, making this game all the more important. Though Baylor is in must-win mode as well, the Bears just don't have the horses to hang around in this one.
The only result in the L/6 games for Baylor that is even remotely concerning to me is that 40-32 victory at Missouri two weeks ago. But if I throw that game out of the mix, the Bears are just 2-3 ATS and 0-5 SU in their other five outings since October 3rd. Last week, they were housed by Texas from the get go and never had a chance of covering the 23-point spread at home. Save that 40-point outburst against the Tigers, the Bears haven't put more than 14 points on the board since the Kent State game either. Both TDs last week against Texas came in garbage time when the cover was already out of reach. Texas A&M's defense has struggled this season, allowing 34.0 points per game, but considering that they allowed 65 to Oklahoma and 62 to Kansas State, a lot of that should be forgiven.
The Aggies are coming off of that brutal 65-10 loss in Normal last week and will be looking to get back on the right foot this weekend. They've played relatively well at home, especially of late, as they scored a 35-10 victory over Iowa State in their last home date. They also have convincing victories over UAB and New Mexico there. The offense surely isn't the problem for Sherman's crew, as his QB Jerrod Johnson has been absolutely fantastic this season. On a better team, Johnson would be up for the Heisman Trophy, as he has thrown for 2,722 yards and 22 TDs against five INTs and ran for another 275 yards and seven scores. The Aggies rank #8 in the land in total offense at 452.4 yards per game and 20th in points scored at 33.0 per game. They should have no problems rolling against this Baylor defense.
Revenge should also be considered here as well, as Baylor knocked off A&M 41-21 last season. The favorite is 10-4 ATS in the L/14 in this series, and that should continue with a convincing victory for the hosts on Saturday. Book it!!!
Jim Feist
Ul Monroe vs. UL Lafayette
Play: UL Lafayette +4
UL-Monroe (6-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has problems on defense under a new defensive coordinator, who brought in a 3-3-5 look, but they allow 30 ppg. They beat Florida International, but allowed 35 points and 394 yards (314 passing), and allowed 383 yards (195 rushing) in Saturday’s 21-18 win over a terrible Western Kentucky team. Rickey Bustle’s (5-5) UL Lafayette is a decent squad that had to play LSU and Nebraska – both on the road! But they also impressed in a 17-15 win at Kansas State. All five starters back on the offensive line, so it is a run-oriented attack with new soph QB Chris Masson (8 TDs, 8 picks). They are home after a three game conference road trip. They had a tough 20-17 OT loss at Florida International, despite 254 passing yards from Masson, a 21-18 win at Arkansas State, rolling up 376 yards, and Saturday’s 34-17 loss at Middle Tennessee State. An excellent spot for the home dog. Play UL-Lafayette.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Bowling Green +10.5
It's going to be a rough year for Iowa, which saw its best player, Jake Kelly, transfer to Indiana State. The Hawkeyes are already 0-2 scoring just 50 points in each game. Coach Todd Lickliter knows that playing halfcourt, slow paced basketball gives his team the best opportunity to win and that slow pace makes these 10.5 points more like catching 16.5 tonight. Bowling Green was absolutely crushed at Xavier so we should see a very motivated effort from the Falcons in this one. In fact, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (line opened at 9.5) after a blowout loss by 30 points or more, against an opponent after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games, are 35-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet Bowling Green.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New Mexico State +30
Bottom Line: Sandwich game for Nevada after a big win over Fresno State and with Boise State up next. This is the last home game of the year for New Mexico State so I expect to see the best effort we've seen in a while out of this team. New Mexico State beat Nevada last season and played the Wolf Pack to a 2-point game the year before. Plays on any team after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games against an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game are 38-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll ride this 76% system for 1 Unit Saturday.
SPORTS WAGERS
North Carolina St. +21 over Virginia Tech
For North Carolina State to be three touchdown underdogs in conference play this late in the season shows how far they have sunk from the days of Phillip Rivers and Co. The win over Pittsburgh seems like it happened years ago and the prospects of a bowl game have disappeared for the Wolfpack, as it’s up to head coach Tom O’Brien to motivate his players to compete in these last two games. O’Brien isn’t on the hot seat and similarly to last week’s Syracuse-Louisville game, the players who are coming back next season will have to play hard, decreasing the chances of a no-show. Virginia Tech can’t win the ACC and are going to settle for a mid-level bowl, which has to be considered a disappointment for the preseason favorite and dark horse National Title contender. With both teams going up against each other with very little but pride at stake, the statistics compiled thus far mean a lot more than games with extra motivators. The saving grace for North Carolina State has been the play of QB Russell Wilson, who has thrown for 26 touchdowns, tops in the ACC, and 2534 yards with a 58% completion percentage. Wilson and RB Toney Baker have led North Carolina State to the ACC’s fourth best points per game mark at 32.6. Having an offense that can produce when getting 21 points is extremely important, as it leaves the door open for backdoor covers and shootouts where touchdowns are simply traded all game long. Virginia Tech will move the ball against the atrocious North Carolina State defense that gives up 31 points a game. Nevertheless, Va Tech is laying too many points to a potent offense. “Beamer Ball” calls for defense and special teams to score and if that’s how Virginia Tech is going to put points on the scoreboard this Saturday, one would have to feel confident in having a three touchdown cushion. Play: North Carolina State +21 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
California +7½ over STANFORD
You have to give all the respect to the Stanford Cardinal for what they have accomplished this season. After going 5-7 last season, Stanford is 7-3 thus far and is in great position to play in this years Rose Bowl. Jim Harbaugh has put his name among the elite in College Football and has his team playing at a level that hasn’t been seen in years. Perhaps the most impressive feat of all was humiliating USC 55-21 on the road, a result so shocking that many observers dubbed an error upon first glance. Stanford’s victory was by far the biggest this decade and without a doubt the biggest win this season. California meanwhile is having a respectable season that had potential to be special if not for the loss of Javhid Best, who at the time of his injury was considered the leading Heisman Trophy candidate. California is coming off a big win over 18th ranked Arizona, completing a fourth quarter comeback to win 24-16. California quarterback Kevin Reilly has thrown 15 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions and RB Shane Vereen has filled in admirably for Best, averaging 5.2 yards per carry to keep California’s running game effective. There are really only two angles to play this game at; if you believe Stanford is for real and can play with giant targets on their backs, lay the points. Stanford hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2001 and their players are competing in completely different conditions than they have ever played in. The number of teams who have had gigantic wins one week and then crashed the next are seemingly endless and I think Stanford will lay a giant egg playing as the hunted. I’ll play that angle and call the outright upset but will gladly take the points with a strong, trustworthy California team. Play: California +7½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
SPORTS ADVISORS
(9) Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS) at Michigan (5-6, 4-6 ATS)
Having wrapped up another Big Ten championship, the Buckeyes now turn their focus to continuing their dominance of hated Michigan as these rivals meet in the Big House in Ann Arbor.
Ohio State held off Iowa 27-24 in overtime last week for its fourth straight victory, and despite failing to cover as a hefty 16½-point home favorite, the Buckeyes clinched their fifth consecutive Big Ten title and earned their first Rose Bowl berth since 1996. Ohio State’s run defense, which ranks fourth in the nation, continued to dominate, allowing just 67 rushing yards on 24 attempts, and while Hawkeyes freshman James Vandenberg passed for 233 yards, he also was picked three times, the last coming in the end zone on Iowa’s first overtime possession, ending the game. Ohio State has scored at least 24 points in all nine wins – tallying 30 or more seven times – while managing just 15 and 18 points in its two losses.
The Wolverines surrendered 17 unanswered points to turn a competitive 28-24 game into a 45-24 lopsided loss at Wisconsin last week, failing to cover as a 16½-point underdog. Michigan has now dropped four in a row SU and ATS and is winless in its last six conference games, and Rich Rodriguez’s defense is allowing 35 points, 444 total yards and 197 rushing yards per game in Big Ten play. A loss today ensures the Wolverines will finish with consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1962-63.
Ohio State has owned this rivalry since Jim Tressel came on board as coach, winning seven of eight meetings – including the last five in a row – while going 6-2 ATS. Last year, the Buckeyes took a 14-7 lead into the locker room at halftime, then came out and scored 28 unanswered points to win 42-7 as a 20 ½-point home favorite.
Ohio State is also 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five trips to Ann Arbor, winning and cashing in the last two, including a 14-3 victory as a four-point favorite in 2007. However, this is the first time the Buckeyes will be a double-digit favorite at the Big House; the last time they were a road chalk of more than a touchdown was in 1995, when they lost outright 31-23 giving nine points. Finally, the winner has covered in eight of the last nine series meetings.
The Buckeyes are on ATS runs of 37-18 overall, 20-6 on the road, 38-18 as a favorite, 17-4 as a road chalk, 6-2 when laying more than 10 points, 5-1 in November and 5-0 after a non-cover. Michigan has failed to cover in six of its last seven games and is 0-6 ATS in its last six Big Ten home games. Furthermore, the Wolverines are in pointspread dips of 3-14 in conference action, 3-7 as a ‘dog, 2-8 after a SU loss, 0-4 in November and 2-5 versus winning teams.
The over is 8-2 in Ohio State’s last 10 November contests, but otherwise the Buckeyes are on “under” surges of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 5-2-1 as a favorite and 11-2 against teams with a losing record. Michigan carries nothing but “over” trends, including 6-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 13-4-1 in November, 9-3 as an underdog and 5-1 on artificial turf. Also, five of the last six in this rivalry have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and OVER
(17) Wisconsin (8-2, 4-5 ATS) at Northwestern (7-4, 4-6)
Wisconsin shoots for its fourth consecutive victory and at least a tie for second place in the Big Ten as it caps the conference campaign with a trip to Evanston, Ill., for a conference clash with the Wildcats.
The Badgers broke open a 28-24 game against Michigan last week, scoring the final 17 points en route to a 45-24 victory as a 16½-point home favorite. Wisconsin has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) since losing consecutive games to then-No. 9 Ohio State and then-No. 11 Iowa – the only two ranked teams the Badgers have faced this year. This is just the fourth road game for Wisconsin, which finishes the season with a non-conference game at Hawaii on Dec. 5.
Wisconsin has averaged 37.7 ppg during its three-game winning streak and has scored 28 points or more in its eight wins while managing just 23 combined points in the losses to Ohio State and Iowa.
A week after handing eighth-ranked Iowa its first loss of the season (17-10 as a 15-point road underdog, Northwestern went to Illinois and sprinted out to a 21-3 lead and held on for a 21-6 victory as a five-point road pup. QB Mike Kafka, who has been dealing with a hamstring injury, led the charge by going 23-for-37 for 305 yards with one TD and no INTs, and he also rushed for a score as the Wildcats improved to 5-2 in their last seven games (3-4 ATS). However, Northwestern has failed to cover in all five home games this year, going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS when hosting Big Ten rivals.
This is the first meeting between these schools since 2006, when the Badgers rolled to a 41-9 win as a 19½-point home chalk. Still, Northwestern is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including cashing in five straight at home against the Badgers, all as an underdog. That includes outright upsets in 2005 (51-48 as a 6½-point ‘dog) and 2003 (16-7 as a 10-point pup). Since that 2003 contest, the host is 4-0 SU and ATS in this rivalry.
Wisconsin is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when laying between 3½ and 10 points, going 4-1 ATS in the last five as a road favorite in that range, but otherwise the Badgers are in ATS ruts of 4-11 on the road, 1-5 against teams with a winning record and 3-7 when playing on grass. Although they’ve yet to cover a pointspread at home this year, the Wildcats are still on ATS runs of 7-1 as an underdog dating to last year, 20-6 as a pup of 3 ½ to 10 points, 7-1 as a home ‘dog in that range and 4-0 in November.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these schools, and Wisconsin carries “over” trends of 9-4 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 11-4 as a favorite, 4-1 as a road chalk and 4-0 in November. Conversely, for the Wildcats, the “under” is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in November and 7-1 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
North Carolina (7-3, 4-4 ATS) at Boston College (7-3, 6-3 ATS)
North Carolina hopes to damage the division titles hopes of an ACC opponent for the second straight week when it travels to Boston College, looking to become the first visitor this year to win at Alumni Stadium.
The Tar Heels dumped 12th-ranked Miami (Fla.) 33-24 last week as a three-point home underdog, clinching their second consecutive bowl berth in the process. Both teams finished with 116 rushing yards, and although Miami had a 319-213 edge in passing, North Carolina picked off Hurricanes QB Jacory Harris four times, the only turnovers in the game. It marked just the second time this season that the Tar Heels’ stout defense yielded more than 17 points.
Boston College is coming off come-from-behind 14-10 win at Virginia last week, coming up just short as a 4½-point road favorite. The Eagles have held their last four opponents to an average of 15 points (going 3-1 SU and ATS), but the inconsistent offense has now scored 16 points or fewer in four games this year while producing 27 points or more in the other six contests. They’re 6-0 at home this year (5-0 ATS in lined games), winning by an average of 24 ppg (37.7-13.7).
Boston College (4-2, 3-3 ATS in the ACC) still has an outside shot of winning the ACC Atlantic Division title, but it must beat North Carolina today and Maryland next week and hope Clemson loses at home today to Virginia. Georgia Tech has already clinched the Coastal Division title.
The Tar Heels routed then-No. 23 Boston College 45-24 as a 2½-point home favorite last season and they’ve won and covered both meetings since joining the ACC, but both were in Chapel Hill.
Not only is Boston College unbeaten at home this year, it is 27-4 SU in its last 31 in Chestnut Hill. Additionally, the Eagles have won 15 of 19 ACC home games since leaving the Big East for the ACC. They’ve now cashed in seven straight lined home games and are on additional pointspread upticks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 4-1 against winning teams. North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road underdog, including a 20-17 upset win at No. 14 Virginia Tech as a 15½-point underdog in its last roadie.
The under is 5-1 in UNC’s last six road games, but the over is 6-2 in its last eight as a ‘dog, while B.C. is on “over” tears of 7-3 at home, 13-6 as a home chalk and 4-1 in ACC play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE and OVER
(13) Penn State (9-2, 4-6 ATS) at Michigan State (6-5, 4-5-1 ATS)
Penn State, hoping to lock up a New Year’s Day bowl berth, ends its regular season with a visit to Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Mich., for a Big Ten battle with Michigan State, which is gunning for its third straight victory.
The Nittany Lions climbed out of an early 10-0 hole at Indiana last week and prevailed 31-20, but came up short as a 24½-point home favorite. A week after getting crushed by Ohio State 24-7 at home to end its Big Ten title dreams, Penn State was sloppy with the football, committing four turnovers. Still, Joe Paterno’s squad managed to register its ninth double-digit win of the season. In fact, 19 of the Lions’ 20 victories since the start of the 2008 season – and the last 11 in a row – have been by more than 10 points.
Michigan State was dominated in the box score at Purdue last week, yet rallied from an 11-point deficit and gutted out a 40-37 victory to become bowl-eligible. The Spartans, who pushed as a three-point road chalk, finished with just 12 first downs and 362 total yards while the defense yielded 28 first downs and 524 total yards to the Boilermakers. Michigan State is 5-2 SU in its last seven, but 1-3-1 ATS in its last five (all as a favorite), including 0-3-1 ATS in Big Ten games.
Penn State crushed the Spartans 49-18 as a 15½-point home favorite last year, avenging a 35-31 loss in East Lansing in 2007 when the Nittany Lions squandered a 24-7 lead and fell as a 2½-point favorite. The host has won 10 of the last 12 in this rivalry (9-3 ATS), with the winner covering the pointspread by an average of 21 points per contest. Going back to 1999, the SU winner has cashed nine of the last 10 meetings.
Penn State has covered in three straight road games and seven of eight as a road favorite since last year, but the Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six November contests, 1-4 ATS in their last five after a non-cover and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite of three points or less. The Spartans are in ATS slumps of 10-21 at home, 1-5 as an underdog, 1-5 as a home pup, 1-4-1 after a SU win and 2-5 in Big Ten home games, but they’re 15-2-1 ATS the last 18 years in home finales.
Although they’ve topped the total in four of their last five roadies, the Nittany Lions carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 9-4 in November, 8-2 as a favorite and 7-2 when playing on grass. The under is also 9-3 in Michigan State’s last 12 at Spartan Stadium, but otherwise it is on “over” rolls of 39-17-2 as an underdog, 8-2 as a home underdog, 10-1 when catching three points or less and 6-2 in November. Finally, the over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings between these schools, including 4-1-1 in the last six clashes in East Lansing.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
California (7-3, 4-5 ATS) at (14) Stanford (7-3 SU and ATS)
Fresh off two highly impressive victories over ranked Pac-10 opponents, the Cardinal now gear up for the 103rd edition of “The Big Game” as they host California at Stanford Stadium.
The Bears rebounded from an ugly 31-14 home loss to Oregon State by routing 18th-ranked Arizona 24-16 as a three-point home favorite, knocking the Wildcats out of the Top 25 and essentially ended their hopes for their first-ever Pac-10 title. Since suffering two embarrassing losses to Oregon and UCLA by the combined score of 72-6, Cal has won four of five (3-2 ATS). Jeff Tedford’s team scored a total of 20 points in its three losses, but has averaged 41 ppg in its seven victories (six of which have been by eight points or more).
Stanford has busted into the Top 25 for the first time since 2001 courtesy of three straight dominating SU and ATS victories. The streak began with a 33-14 home rout of Arizona State and was followed by a 51-42 home win over seventh-ranked Oregon as a seven-point underdog and last week’s 55-21 destruction of No. 11 USC as a 10½-point road pup. The Cardinal, who have already qualified for a bowl game for the first time since 2001, are 6-2 SU and ATS in Pac-10 play and trail Oregon by a half-game in the race for the division title and Rose Bowl berth. They’ve scored 24 or more points in nine of 10 games, including 33 or more seven times.
In handing USC its worst home loss since 1966 last week, the Cardinal broke open a 28-21 game with four fourth-quarter touchdowns and finished with a 469-334 edge in total offense, including 325-138 on the ground. RB Toby Gerhart has thrust himself into Heisman Trophy consideration after rushing for a school-record 223 yards and three TDs against Oregon and 178 yards and three TDs against the USC.
The Bears have taken six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry and they’re 6-2 ATS the last eight years. Last season, Cal cruised to a 37-16 win as an 8½-point home favorite, but the last time these teams squared off at Stanford Stadium, the Cardinal scored a 20-13 upset win as a 13½-point home underdog. This is the first time since 2001 that Stanford will be favored in this showdown, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Cal is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog, but despite covering against Arizona last week, the Bears remain in pointspread funks of 2-5 overall (all in Pac-10 play), 5-12 as a visitor, 1-4 as an underdog and 0-4 after a SU win. Stanford is 4-0 SU and ATS in Palo Alto this year (15.3-point average margin of victory) and it has covered in 11 consecutive home games. Additionally, the Cardinal are on ATS rolls of 6-2 overall, 9-3 in conference, 6-1 as a chalk, 12-3-1 as a home favorite, 5-1 in November and 8-3 versus teams with a winning record.
The Bears are riding “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 9-1 as an underdog and 12-4 in November, and the under is 8-3 in Stanford’s last 11 as a favorite and 10-2 in its last 12 as a home chalk. Finally, six of the last seven “Big Games” have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD and UNDER
(10) LSU (8-2, 4-6 ATS) at Ole Miss (7-3, 5-3 ATS)
Ole Miss tries once again for its first three-game winning streak of the season, while also attempting to knock off LSU for the second straight year, as these SEC West rivals clash at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford.
With four key starters sitting out, the Tigers barely got by Louisiana Tech last week, holding on for a 24-16 non-conference victory but coming up way short as a 22½-point home favorite. LSU had just 246 yards and 15 first downs and is now averaging just 310 ypg on the season. Since starting off 5-0 (2-3 ATS), the Tigers are 3-2 in their last five games (2-3 ATS), and while they’ve won three of four road games, they’re just 1-3 ATS on the highway.
The Rebels followed up an easy 24-point non-lined home win over Division I-AA Northern Arizona with last Saturday’s 42-17 rout of Tennessee as a six-point home chalk. RB/WR Dexter McCluster was the main reason why Ole Miss ended a 12-game series losing streak to the Vols, rushing for a school-record 282 yards and four TDs as the Rebels finished with advantages of 492-275 in total yards and 26-18 in first downs. Ole Miss is in the midst of its third two-game winning streak of the season but has yet to win three in a row.
Ole Miss went to LSU last year and ended a six-game series losing skid to the Tigers with a 31-13 blowout win as a three-point underdog, finishing with a 409-215 edge in total offense. The Rebels are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings (all as an underdog), covering in each of the last three. In fact, the pup is on a 10-2 ATS roll in this series.
LSU continues to struggle at the betting window. Since starting the 2007 season 3-0 ATS, the Tigers are on pointspread slides 8-22-1 overall, 4-8 on the road and of 6-17-1 in SEC play. Additionally, LSU is mired in ATS funks of 0-9 in November, 3-8 after a SU win and 2-6 as an underdog, though Les Miles’ troops are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
The Rebels sport pointspread surges of 19-7 overall, 6-1 at home, 8-2 as a favorite, 6-0 as a home chalk, 7-1-1 in November, 7-3 after a SU win and 4-1 after a victory over more than 20 points.
The over is 9-3 in LSU’s last 12 November contests and 12-4 in its last 16 on the road, but the Tigers are also on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 26-12-1 as an underdog, 20-8-1 as a road pup, 7-2 against winning teams and 6-0 after a non-cover. Ole Miss is also on “under” stretches of 5-2 at home, 9-2 in SEC play, 13-6 as a home favorite and 5-2 in November. Finally, the total has alternated in the last four meetings between these teams, with last year’s game staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI and UNDER
Air Force (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at (19) BYU (8-2, 5-5 ATS)
Air Force tries to end the regular season with a fourth consecutive SU win and fifth straight spread-cover while at the same time snap a five-game losing streak to BYU when these Mountain West Conference rivals hook up at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah.
The Falcons rolled up 557 total yards and 30 first downs, while the defense permitted just 282 yards and 16 first downs, in last week’s 45-17 thrashing of UNLV as a 17-point home chalk, their fourth straight spread-cover. All seven of Air Force’s wins have been by double digits, while its three losses have been by a total of 19 points, including two overtime losses and two three-point defeats.
A week after a 52-0 victory at Wyoming, BYU went to Albuquerque, N.M., a week ago and posted a lethargic 24-19 win over winless New Mexico, never threatening to cover as a 27½-point road favorite. Four of the Cougars’ last five games were on the road, and while they won all four, sandwiched in between was an ugly 38-7 loss to then-No. 10 TCU as a 2½-point underdog. BYU has played only four times in Provo this year, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, with the defense surrendering an average of 33 points, 421 total yards and 153.8 rushing yards per game.
BYU is on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, with all five victories coming by 14 points or more. Last year, the Cougars went to Colorado Springs, Colo., and rolled the Academy 38-24 as a three-point favorite.
Air Force has been a spread-covering machine on the road the last two years, going 10-3 ATS in its last 13 on the highway. The Falcons, in addition to their current 4-0 ATS roll, are on pointspread upticks of 4-1 in conference play, 7-2 in November and 14-6 after a SU win, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven as an underdog (1-4 ATS last five as a road pup). BYU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 Mountain West games, but 11-6 ATS as a home favorite in Bronco Mendenhall’s coaching era.
The over is on streaks of 5-0 for Air Force in November, 12-3 for Air Force after a spread-cover, 7-2 for BYU as a favorite and 6-2 for BYU in conference play
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Kansas State (6-5, 5-4 ATS) at Nebraska (7-3 SU and ATS)
The Big 12 North title is up for grabs at Memorial Stadium, where the Huskers host Kansas State with the winner earning a berth in the conference title game, almost certainly against third-ranked Texas.
Nebraska has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) and took control of the Big 12 North last week when it knocked off Kansas 31-17 as a four-point road favorite while Kansas State was losing at home to Missouri 38-12. The Cornhuskers won their first three home games by margins of 46, 31 and 55 points – all against Sun Belt Conference cupcakes – then dropped their first two Big 12 home games to Texas Tech (31-10) and Iowa State (9-7). However, Bo Pelini’s squad reclaimed its home-field mojo with a 10-3 upset win over then-No. 20 Oklahoma in Lincoln two weeks ago.
The Wildcats have followed up a 4-1 run (3-1 ATS) by dropping two of their last three, both SU and ATS. In last week’s 26-point loss to Missouri as a 1½-point home underdog, Kansas State surrendered 433 total yards and lost the turnover battle 3-0. It was just the third time this season that the Wildcats gave up more than 23 points, as they’ve still held six of 10 opponents to 17 points or fewer. On the flip side, the offense has produced more than 20 points in just two of nine Division I-A games.
Nebraska is 4-2 in Big 12 play (3-3 ATS), a half-game ahead of Kansas State (4-3, 5-2 ATS). Since the third-place team in the North Division is 3-4, the winner of this game claims the division title.
The Huskers have won four in a row in this series (3-1 ATS), taking the last two in embarrassing fashion (73-31 in 2007; 56-28 in 2008). In those two wins, Nebraska gained a combined 1,312 yards. However, prior to this recent run by the Cornhuskers, the Wildcats had won three in a row and cashed in five straight in this rivalry, all under coach Bill Snyder, who returned to the sidelines this season after serving exclusively as the school’s athletics director for three seasons.
Kansas State has cashed in four of its last five as an underdog and seven of 10 as a road pup, but the ‘Cats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 November outings. Nebraska is 2-5 ATS in its last seven Big 12 home games, but from there, the Huskers are on pointspread surges of 8-3 overall, 5-2 at home, 4-1 in November and 7-2 versus opponents with a winning record.
The Wildcats carry nothing but “over” streaks (21-8 on the road, 18-8 in Big 12 action, 22-10 as an underdog, 15-5 as a road underdog, 25-10 in November, 27-9 after a SU win), while Nebraska sports “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all in conference), 6-1 at home and 4-1 as a favorite. Finally, the over is 10-1 in the last 11 clashes in this rivalry, with the last five in Lincoln clearing the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA and OVER
Oklahoma (6-4, 3-5 ATS) at Texas Tech (6-4, 5-4 ATS)
Two Big 12 South rivals playing for nothing but pride battle it out at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas, where the Red Raiders try for their third straight home win over Oklahoma.
The Sooners bounced back from a 10-3 loss at Nebraska and destroyed Texas A&M 65-10 last week, easily covering as a 20-point home favorite. One week after throwing five interceptions at Nebraska, Oklahoma QB Landry Jones had a career day, throwing for 392 yards and five TDs while getting intercepted just once.
It has been feast-or-famine all year for the Sooners, who have averaged 12.3 ppg in their four losses (scoring 13 or less in three of them) and 47.3 ppg in their six victories (tallying at least 33 points in all six). Additionally, OU’s four losses were by a total of 12 points, while they’re six wins were all double-digit blowouts (37.3-point average margin of victory). Finally, the Sooners’ defense has yielded more than 16 points just twice this year.
Texas Tech gave No. 17 Oklahoma State a battle last Saturday night, eventually falling 24-17 as a 4½-point underdog. The Red Raiders, who had scored 30-plus points in five straight games and seven of their first nine, were held to a season-low in points. They’ve alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last four games and are 4-2 SU and ATS in Big 12 play (2-1 SU and ATS at home).
The home team has taken five straight in this rivalry, cashing in each of the last three. However, going back to the early 1990s, the Sooners are on 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS against Texas Tech (6-2 ATS last eight), with those 12 wins coming by an average of three touchdowns.
The Sooners are in pointspread slumps of 1-4-1 on the road and 0-3-1 after a victory, but they remain on positive ATS runs of 8-3-1 in Big 12 play, 7-2 as a road favorite, 6-1 in November and 7-1 on artificial turf. Texas Tech is 39-16 ATS in its last 55 games after a SU defeat and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home underdog, including four straight spread-covers as home pup of 3½ to 10 points.
Aside from their 11-4 “over” run in conference and 5-1 “over” run in November, and the Sooners have been an “under” team of late, including 9-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-2 as a favorite and 7-2 against winning teams. The under is also 5-2 in the Red Raiders’ last seven league games, but five of their last six in Lubbock have gone over the total. Meanwhile, te last two series meetings have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA
(11) Oregon (8-2, 7-3 ATS) at Arizona (6-3, 4-4 ATS)
Back in the Pac-10 driver’s seat, Oregon will try to stay on track for the conference title an automatic Rose Bowl berth as they hit the road for the fourth time in the last six weeks, this time stopping at Arizona Stadium in Tucson for a league meeting with the Wildcats.
The Ducks’ seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) went up in smoke two weeks ago after a 51-42 loss at Stanford as a seven-point road favorite, but they bounced back with last Saturday’s 44-21 win over Arizona State as a 19-point home favorite. Oregon’s defense stole the show, limiting the Sun Devils to 211 total yards, and even though the offense was “held” to just 388 total yards, they still managed to top the 40-point mark for the fourth straight game and the sixth time in the last season. Since a season opening 19-8 loss at Boise State, the Ducks have averaged 40.3 ppg.
Arizona had its three-game SU and ATS winning streak snapped at Cal last week, taking a 16-15 early fourth-quarter lead before surrendering the final nine points in a 24-16 loss as a three-point road underdog. The Wildcats managed just 274 total yards – a season-low in conference play – while the defense yielded 357, the final 61 coming on a rushing touchdown by Cal that sealed the game with less than two minutes to play. Still, the Arizona defense has allowed just 14.7 ppg in the last three games after giving up 38, 36 and 32 points (35.3 ppg) in its first three league contests.
Oregon controls its own destiny in the Pac-10 race and will claim the league title with a victory today and a home win over archrival Oregon State in the season finale in two weeks. Arizona (4-2 in the Pac-10) is one of three teams right behind the Ducks with two league losses.
The SU winner has cashed in nine of Oregon’s 10 games this year, including the last eight in a row, while the SU winner is 7-0 in Arizona’s last seven.
The Ducks hold the longtime series edge, taking 13 of the last 18 from Arizona (12-6 ATS), but the Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, including 2-0 ATS in Tucson. Two years ago, Oregon went to Arizona as the third-ranked team in the nation, lost star QB Dennis Dixon to a first-quarter injury and fell 34-24 as a 10½-point road favorite. The last year, the teams combined for more than 1,000 yards of total offense, with the Ducks building a 45-17 lead then holding on for a 55-45 victory, covering as a six-point favorite. Oregon has been favored in each of the last nine meetings.
The Ducks have cashed in seven of eight games, but both non-covers this year came on the road (at Boise State, at Stanford). They’re also on ATS runs of 8-1 in conference, 5-1 as a road favorite and 9-1 following a SU win.
Arizona is 10-5 ATS as a home underdog since coach Mike Stoops took over the program in 2004, going 5-1 ATS in that role since 2006. The Wildcats are on additional pointspread surges of 11-2 at home, 4-0 as a home pup, 13-6 when playing on grass and 6-2 after a SU defeat, but they have dropped four of five ATS in November.
Oregon carries a plethora of “over” runs, including 4-0 overall (all in conference), 5-0 in November, 12-2-2 as a favorite, 5-0-1 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 12-5 as a road chalk and 7-3 against teams with a winning record. However, the under is 7-1 in Arizona’s last eight home contests. Also, three of the last four Ducks-Wildcats battles in Tucson have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Sports Insights
Kent State vs. Temple
Kent State could not get anything going on the ground in their last game, totaling 38 yard rushing in a 28-20 road loss to Akron two weeks ago. Temple was much more successful in their visit to Akron Saturday, scoring 42 unanswered points in a 56-17 shellacking of the Zips.
Temple opened as a 13.5-point favorite at Olympic are currently receiving 79% of spread bets, 98% of moneyline bets and 91% of parlay bets. Although the Owls are the clear-cut public favorite, sharp money has come down on Kent State, shrinking the line to -10.5 at Olympic, while triggering two Smart Money Plays, one each at sportbet (+6.99 units) and CRIS (+12.05 units), on the Golden Flashes. Two positive Steam Moves have also been triggered on Kent State, so we'll follow the Smart Money, go against the public and take the Flashes.
Kent State +11.5
Army vs. North Texas
After being blown out by Air Force two weeks ago, Army's Patrick Mealy ran for 136 yards as the Black Knights rebounded to beat VMI 22-17 Saturday. North Texas went to the locker room with a 14-point halftime lead against Florida International last week, only to watch the Golden Panthers score 21 unanswered points over the final two quarters of the game.
This matchup opened as a pick at CRIS and the public has jumped behind Army, who is receiving 65% of spread bets, 82% of moneyline bets and 59% of parlay bets. North Texas is a considerable public underdog, yet the line has moved opposite of the percentages, pushing the Mean Green to a 2.5-point favorite at CRIS. Matchbook (+16.12 units) triggered a Smart Money Play on North Texas, so we'll once again go against the public, take the home-favorite and give two points.
North Texas -2
California vs. Stanford
As mentioned above in our Week 11 recap, California scored a touchdown late, topping Arizona 24-16. This week the Bears take on Stanford, who has scored 106 points in their last two games, victories over Oregon and USC.
Following last week's drubbing of USC, Stanford opened as a 6.5-favorite at CRIS and is receiving 78% of all spread bets. With so much action on the home-favorite, the line has increased to -7.5 at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights and even -8 at a couple of shops. Three positive Smart Money plays have been triggered on California, including one at CRIS (+12.05 units). A Steam Move was also triggered on the Bears at 5dimes (+16.9 units), so we're going to go ahead and grab Cal at +8 while it's still out there.
California +8
CAJUN SPORTS
Virginia @ Clemson
2* Clemson -19.5
The Virginia Cavaliers will have the Tigers undivided attention today because Clemson is just one win away from playing in the ACC Championship Game against Georgia Tech. Because of Clemson’s earlier loss to Maryland many wrote this Tigers team off but a run of five straight victories have put them on the doorstep to an ACC Championship. I have to admit the Maryland loss was a little difficult to understand especially when you look at their loss against TCU who they held to a meager 14 points and only lost by four. Clemson lost three of its first five games by a total of ten points and two of the teams they lost to are now ranked in the Top 10 in the country. Clemson is not only on a five game SU winning streak they have also covered the spread in each case averaging 42 points per game over that span and defeating four 1A teams by over thirteen points per game. Clemson’s defense allows 299.3 yards per game to rank second in the ACC and 20th nationally. Clemson's 20 interceptions lead the FBS - 12 in the last five games. The Cavaliers' offense ranks 118th in the nation with 266.7 yards per game and 106th in scoring offense, averaging 19.8 points. After three straight games under 200 yards of total offense, the Cavaliers gained 298 last Saturday against Boston College but they couldn't score an offensive touchdown in a 14 to 10 loss. Virginia has tossed the towel on the 2009 season and they will face a determined opponent on Saturday afternoon in Clemson Memorial Stadium. Lay the chalk as the Tigers turn the Cavaliers into just another statistic with winner number six and cash another winning ticket.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Ole Miss -4
LSU has struggled on the road this season. While it is 3-1 SU, it is just 1-3 ATS. Ole Miss has been the team everyone expected it would be at home, going 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in lined games, winning by over 20 points on average. Ole Miss expected to challenge for an SEC title, and while it hasn't been able to meet expectations, a big win over LSU can go a long way toward atonement. Ole Miss has played its best football late in the season in recent years and that is why it is on a perfect 6-0 ATS run in weeks 10 through 13. Meanwhile, LSU is on a 0-6 ATS slide in weeks 10 through 13. Ole Miss won 31-13 at LSU last season and with Houston Nutt making a concerted effort to get Dexter McCluster involved in a variety of ways, I expect the Rebs to take care of business here.
Rob Vinciletti
Louisiana Tech vs. Fresno State
Play: Louisiana Tech +9-105
The Bulldogs are traveling to Freso.St today in their last road game of the season. They have had much success covering the last times as a visitor and the last 5 times overall in the series. La.Tech was last seen giving LSU a big scare as a 22 point dog. LSU managed to hold off Tech with a late rally 24-16. The Bull dogs have played a tougher schedule this year than Fresno.St hence the losing record. Before losing to LSU they lost at home to a solid Boise.ST team by again covering a big number. La. Tech has covered 8 of 10 times against winning teams over the past few years.Fresno.St the other Bull dog in this game is just 3-10 ats at home recently and is playing with out running back Mathews. Fresno.St is a horrible 1-14 ats off a straight up and ats loss. Last week they were blown out by Nevada 52-14.Back in 2005 a very similar Fresno team was beat at home by La.Tech 40-28 as a 24 point favorite. While were not calling for the upset here,it is a distinct possibility the way La.Tech has been playing.
John Ryan
Army vs. North Texas
Play: Army +2½
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Army as they face North Texas set to start at 4:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Army will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 56% probability of winning the game SU. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone just 14-14, but has made a whopping 52.7 units playing an average dog of +476 since 1999. This is analogous to playing Black Jack and getting paid $4.76 for every $1.00 winning hand played. The system has hit 50% winners which nearly matches the so=called BJ odds at the casino. You will never receive these kind of pay-offs at any casino, but this system has certainly produced some very real results since 1999. North Texas is in a horrid situation for this game noting they are just 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992. This is Army’s last game – a tune up if you will – before the big showdown with Navy on December 12th. A win here and an upset of Navy would put Army at 6-6 for the season and that would be a tremendous accomplishment. Take Army.
Jimmy Moore
Arizona State @ UCLA
Pick: UCLA -4.5
Arizona State is not a good road team, especially late in the season and especially in California. UCLA needs this win to become bowl eligible so their motivation level will be very high. Also UCLA has been great at home late in the season. Lay this very small number with the Bruins to get a winner on a college football Saturday.
Karl Garrett
Rutgers -8' at SYRACUSE
G-Man taking a look at a Big East matchup this Saturday, and while Syracuse earned a "moral" victory in their cover at Louisville, the fact remains the Orangemen wound up losing their third in a row.
Syracuse has scored just 26 points in their last 3 games, and that lack of offense will do them in against the surging Scarlet Knights who have reeled off 3 straight wins and covers, and have been idle since pasting South Florida 31-0 on November 12th.
The Knights have won and covered the last 4 series meetings, ALL 4 coming by double-digits, and Coach Schiano's team has covered their last 7 lined games on the road as well.
Expect another Rutgers rout in this one.
Scarlet Knights makes it 5 straight series wins, and covers at the Carrier Dome.
5♦ RUTGERS