Nelly
UAB + over Marshall
Going against Marshall has not been wise with an 8-2 ATS record behind the perfect 10-0 start for the Herd. Last week's game was huge for Marshall in a revenge spot and it was a dominant showing. The road track record is less appealing for Marshall and a rising UAB team has had two weeks to prepare for this opportunity, sitting at 5-5 with postseason hopes still alive. The Blazers out-gained Mississippi State earlier this season as this has been a solid team albeit with some inconsistency. Marshall won by 42 points last season but UAB had 464 yards in that game and this is a situation where the heavy road favorite may not be as sharp coming off last week's huge revenge win over Rice, a game where Marshall played flawlessly but still barely covered as this is a team facing overpricing. It is not easy to go against Marshall but this is a good situation for an improved Blazers team. UAB has played well with quality teams in most of the losses and Marshall has played an embarrassingly weak schedule to pad the numbers. Marshall is not as efficient of a passing team as everyone thinks, completing just 59 percent of passes this season and the host has covered in five of the last six meetings.
Red Dog Sports
Samford vs. Auburn
Play: Samford +40
Samford +40 makes sense as Auburn is off two losses and plays Alabama in the Iron Bowl next. The Auburn Tigers will be looking ahead to the Crimson Tide, who happens to be their conference and state rival. Samford is 7-3 and lost by 34 (48-14) at TCU to open the season. QB Michael Eubank and RB Denzel Williams are decent players. Samford only lost at Arkansas (another SEC team) by 10 last year. Hopefully, we see a 48-14 type of game when the underdog stays within 40 points.
Sleepyj
Boston College +20
BC is a perfect 3-0 this year winning SU off a loss. They hold the nations #12 running offense behind QB Murphy. They also have the nations 23rd ranked defense. I expec BC to run the ball much like they did Vs an aggresive USC front. FSU has the nations 34th ranked defense. Maybe two different clubs but you can't ignore BC having a slightly better ranking on defense. FSU actually has been struggling to run the ball and has relied on the pass. Getting one dimensional in a ACC gam ecan also cause a few snags. FSU has had a few close games this year and with a look ahead Vs. in state rival Florida Gators i like this spot for BC. They would like nothing more than to knock off the Noles. I expect them to keep FSU on the ropes a few times here. This nimber was just high. I think this drops to -18. I can see FSU winning this in the 16-12 point range.
AC Dinero
Florida Atlantic vs. Middle Tenn St
Play: Middle Tenn St -7
FAU travels to Tennessee off a bye. It's been a bit of a disappointing season for this team in my mind. I expected better, especially on defense. Instead, they have given up 5.3 ypc, 7.4 ypa, and 48% on 3rd down. It's hard to imagine anything but going thru the motions on the road for FAU. MTSU still has bowl aspirations after blowing a big lead at FIU last weekend. The offense, while productive, has failed on 3rd down (39%). They should be able to convert here at home. Couple the fact they have the better kicking game and are the mor eproductive team in the red zone, and you are looking at a raider team that should win by a TD at least
Tom Stryker
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State -1
Don’t expect Iowa State to flinch when Texas Tech visits on Saturday. Through nine games, the Cyclones have battled the ninth-toughest schedule in the nation and they won’t back down when the Red Raiders bring their Air Raid attack to Ames.
After a pair of big wins over Tech in 2010 and 2011, ISU has fallen its last two games in this series. The Cyclones lost a 24-13 decision to the Red Raiders at home in 2012 and dropped a 42-35 battle in Lubbock last season. This could be the spot where State gets its revenge. As a home favorite or pick, head coach Paul Rhoads’ men have been worth a look notching a respectable 27-16 ATS record in their last 43 lined games. Provided ISU has at least one straight up win under its best, this team trend jumps to a decent 25-10 ATS.
Regardless of who starts at quarterback for Texas Tech (Patrick Mahomes or Davis Webb), the Red Raiders are going to be in trouble in this Big 12 war. Since posting a pair of straight up wins over Central Arkansas and UTEP in its first two games of the season, Texas Tech has dropped seven of its last eight. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury knows his Red Raiders have problems on the defensive side of the ball. Texas Tech's Swiss cheese stop unit has allowed an average of 41.6 points and 504.5 total yards per game this season including a whopping 260.3 yards per game on the ground. That’s not going to win too many games for you especially on the road.
In the current Big 12 standings, Iowa State (0-6 SU) is in last place looking up at (1-6 SU) Texas Tech. If the Cyclones want to get out of the conference cellar, it will be imperative for them to win this game. Look for ISU to attack that soft TTRR stop unit early and often in this Big 12 battle.
Matt Fargo
Louisiana Tech vs. Old Dominion
Pick: Old Dominion
Louisiana Tech is riding a five-game winning streak, covering the last three, but now it finds itself in an unfamiliar spot as road favorite by double-digits. The Bulldogs are 6-0 in the C-USA West Division which is two games better than Rice so their game against the Owls will prove meaningless with a victory here. That may seem like this would be a good spot for them but the win potential is being portrayed into this line which is a big reason it is as high as it is. While the Bulldogs have been winning, the Monarchs have been losing. Despite a victory last week against Florida International, they are just 4-6 on the season and most importantly for our purposes, they have gone 0-6 in their last six games against the number. Sitting at 4-6, the Monarchs can still get into the postseason should they win out but it isn't a guarantee. Because Old Dominion is in its final transition season to the FBS, NCAA rules dictate the Monarchs can go to a bowl only if there aren't enough eligible teams to fill all 76 bowl slots. They know they have to take care of business so motivation is no issue. Both teams are coming off a bye week and I feel that helps the underdog in this case as it can put the recent struggles behind them and as for Louisiana Tech, the momentum during the winning streak may have been halted. While winning is the goal for the Monarchs, we will grab the generous points in their final home game of the season.
EZWINNERS
Baylor Bears -29
This is a huge revenge game for Baylor and I expect them to roll against an Oklahoma State team that does not have the fire power to keep up with the Bears in Waco. Last season in Stillwater a very offensivlly potent Cowboy's team knocked off Baylor as a 8 point home underdog. The was the first loss of the season for Baylor who was 9-0 at the time so I'm sure they will remeber that defeat well. The Bears are averaging over 55 points per game at home and have blew out everyone with the exception of TCU. Oklahoma State is no where near the calibar of team as the Horned Frogs. In their last four games this offensivlly challanged Oklahoma State team has only scored five offensive touchdowns. That won't cut it when heading to Waco. Lay the wood as Baylor rolls.
Missouri Tigers +3.5
Tennessee is coming off of a huge win against Kentucky last week and needs just one more win (against Missouri or Vandy next week) to become bowl eligable but I like the Tigers in this spot. Missouri cashed in a winner for me last week in College Station and I look for them to cash another ticket this week. The Tigers control their own destinay to the SEC championship game and this team has been fantastic on the road where they have won and covered the spread in nine straight games. Missouri quarterback Maty Mauk is playing very well and Mauk has a running game to lean on with explosive running backs Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy who combined for almost 300 yards last week against the Aggies. The Vols defense is still young and Missouri should be able to exploit the inexperience. Take the points.
Virginia Cavaliers +6
This is going to be a tough spot for Miami. The Canes came ever so close to knocking off FSU in a rivalry game and I just don't see them bringing that intensity on the road to Virginia. The Cavs need two win out to become bowl eligable so this is a huge game for them and they have had two weeks to prepare for this Hurricanes team. Virginia has been in some very close games as four of their six losses have been by eight points or less and they have actually out gained their opponents in four of thier six losses. This has been an underdog series as the dog has covered the spread in nine out of the last ten meetings between these two teams. Take the points.
Mid Major Matt
Western Kentucky/UTSA Under 57.5
The Roadrunners hit the road for the final time this season to take on Western Kentucky. It’s been a long season for UTSA after so much success last season. They have scored just 64 points in their last six games and have failed to get anything going behind their rotating door of quarterbacks. The Hilltoppers defense is nothing special and if you look, they have a lot of ugly stats. They really haven’t faced too many offenses this awful this season. Their secondary has allowed 198 yards in the last two games. WKU’s offense has carried them this season. While the Roadrunners can’t score, they can play fantastic defense. This unit has allowed just 122 points in their last six games. They play the pass well holding Louisiana Tech to just 157 yards back on 10/18. The Roadrunners have gone under in seven of their 10 games. We think they will do so again on Saturday.
Jeff Clement
Boise State vs. Wyoming
Play: Boise State -12.5
Boise State(8-2) AT Wyoming(4-6): Wyoming has struggled to score this year averaging 20.9 points which ranks 110th in the nation while Bosie State's offense ranks #10 averaging 510.5 yards per game. Quarterback Grant Hedrick has passed for 2,795 yards with 17 TD's and tailback Jay Ajayi has rushed for 1,296 yards with 17 TD's so expect the Broncos to run all over the Wyoming defense on Saturday night. Wyoming is 1-8 ATS last 9 home games and the road team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.
Joe Gavazzi
Utah -4.5
With need, you bleed! This old adage may aptly apply to the Arizona Wildcats today, for they have been running through raindrops. Two weeks ago, they profited from a +4 net TO margin to record our 2014 6% College GOY winner over Colorado. Last week, the Wildcats used another one of their lives, when they were outrushed 245-133 by Washington, outgained 504-375, yet still came away with a 27-26 win. Now, they must take to the highway, where starting QB Solomon was "iffy" at best in a 17-7 loss at UCLA in their most recent road game. Taking to the altitude of SLC, it is far from a plus for an Arizona team, whose sights must certainly be set on facing rival Arizona St. for a potential shot at the divisional crown next week. It is here they will meet a sneaky good Utah team who has recorded a mark of 7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS. They do it with a defense that allows 3.6 YPR and has recorded a nation high, 47 sacks. Along with outstanding special teams, this well coached team makes the most of each opportunity. Time for the rubber band to snap for the Wildcats! The Utes are just the team to make that happen.
Jim Feist
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers
Philly has struggled badly, except when it comes to covering the Las Vegas number! That's because they are undervalued as a big dog every game, on 16-6 ATS against the Eastern Conference and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. While Philly is in last place in the East, the team right above them is the NY Knicks. New York is rested, but got blown out again, this time by the banged up Minnesota Timbervolves, 115-99. New York is 24th in the NBA in scoring, 28th in rebounds and 20th in points allowed. The Minnesota Timberwolves were coming off consecutive blowout losses to end a six-game road trip, were missing three starters and had two other key veterans getting IV fluids before the game just to suit up. Carmelo Anthony had 20 points and Amare Stoudemire added 19 for the Knicks. But New York's 23 turnovers led to 28 points by Minnesota, and the Knicks got swept in the Milwaukee-Minnesota back-to-back. Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games, 1-6 ATS overall. The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and when these East rivals meet the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Jack Jones
Iowa +10½
After going on the road and beating Illinois 30-14 last week while outgaining the Illini by 352 yards in the win, the Iowa Hawkeyes now control their own destiny in the in the Big Ten West division. Win out and they will be going to the Big Ten Championship game.
Of course, the same can be said for Wisconsin, which controls its own destiny as well. The betting public is all over this team after annihilating Nebraska at home last week behind a record 408 rushing yards from Melvin Gordon. I simply believe the Badgers are overvalued this week because of it. Asking them to win by double-digits at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City to cover the spread is asking too much.
Kirk Ferentz teams always tend to play better against primary running teams like Wisconsin. In fact, Ferentz is 18-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more yards per game as the coach of Iowa. This team has been solid against the run again this year, allowing 148 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.
Iowa does have a nice home-field advantage inside Kinnick Stadium and has throughout the years. It is 4-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game. That includes blowout home wins over Northwestern (48-7) and Indiana (45-29). Ferentz is 15-7 ATS in his career as a home underdog in Big Ten play.
Wisconsin is just 2-2 on the road this season with its wins coming against Big Ten bottom feeders Purdue and Rutgers. It did lose 14-20 at Northwestern back on October 4th as a 7.5-point favorite in that game. Again, Iowa beat Northwestern 48-7 a few weeks ago.
Common opponents show that these two teams are pretty much equals. They have played the same four teams this season in Illinois, Maryland, Northwestern and Purdue. Wisconsin is 3-1 against those four teams, outscoring them by 16.3 points per game and outgaining them by 214.5 yards per game. Iowa is 3-1 against those teams as well, outscoring them by 16.0 points per game and outgaining them by 233.5 yards per game.
Here's another great rushing trend. Ferentz is 22-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry as the coach of Iowa. I look for the Hawkeyes to hold this Wisconsin rushing attack in check and to make enough plays offensively to stay within double-digits of the Badgers, possibly pulling off the upset.
Ray Monohan
Louisville Cardinals +3.5
With a new QB at the helm heading into a tough environment there are lots of reasons not to like the Cardinals. However, in limited action it looks like Reggie Bonnafon has something and he will be able to make enough plays with his legs, and his arm, to keep this one nice a tight...probably even lead the Cards to victory. Take the visitors against a reeling ND squad. They are the better team and their defense is really tough.
Steve Merril
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor -29
Oklahoma State is a bad football team. The Cowboys have lost four straight games games by 33, 24, 34, and 21 points. Their offense scored 14 points or less in all four of those games. Oklahoma State has underperformed on both sides of the ball this season. The Cowboys’ offense is averaging just 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.6 yards per play. Oklahoma State’s defense is giving up 30 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.
Baylor comes into this game fresh off their bye, so they will be ready to fire their best shot, especially since they are playing with revenge after losing 49-17 at Oklahoma State last season. Baylor has a prolific offense that is averaging 50.1 points per game on 6.6 yards per play. The Bears’ defense is much improved this season as they are holding opponents to just 21 points per game on 4.6 yards per play. Baylor needs blowout wins in order to move up the playoff rankings, and they get the perfect opponent to run up the score. This game is a complete mismatch, so lay the points with Baylor on Saturday night.
Jimmy Boyd
Ole Miss/Arkansas Under 45
This game has a defensive showdown written all over it. Ole Miss is No. 1 in scoring defense (11.9 ppg) and No. 10 in total defense (309.8 ypg), while Arkansas is No. 27 in scoring defense (22.2 ppg) and No. 21 in total defense (340.6 ypg). Adding to this is the fact that while the Rebels have been equally as strong on the road as they have at home, the Razorbacks are an even stronger defensive team at home. Arkansas is allowing just 16.2 ppg on a mere 246 ypg.
While Ole Miss does have a respectable offense, they just recently loss arguably their best receiver in Laquon Treadwell. Not having one of their elite playmakers on the outside puts even more pressure on Bo Wallace, who I don't trust on the road. Wallace has thrown just 3 touchdowns passes on the road compared to 19 at home. Ole Miss' rushing attack is pretty average and doesn't figure to be a factor here against an Arkansas defense that is allowing just 2.9 yards/carry at home.
Arkansas offensively is going to be looking to run and run a lot. The Razorbacks come into this game averaging 43 rush attempts to just 29 rush attempts per game. The key here is that Ole Miss has the run defense to really slow down the Razorbacks.
While I'm expecting to see a lot of empty possessions by both teams, we shouldn't see any big plays that lead to quick scores. There are figures to be a lot of long drives that end in field goals, which is perfect recipe for a game to go below the mark.
UNDER is 11-3 in Rebels last 14 games against teams who average 34+ points/game, a perfect 6-0 in Ole Miss' last 6 road games against teams averaging 5.9+ yards/play and 4-1 in Arkansas' last 5 conference games.
There's also a great system in play. UNDER is 39-13 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total set between 42.5 to 49 points with the road team playing on two or more weeks of rest. That's a 75% system.