Chip Chirimbes
Northwestern vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue
Got to love this spot after for Purdue as Northwestern (4-6) is off their 'Game of the Year' win over Notre Dame. Their season is over as far as they are concerned as their bowl chances don't exist. The Boilermakers have dropped seven straight home games and 11 of their last 12 conference games. Purdue has won 10 of the past 14 games between the two and lead the all-time series 50-27-1.
Tony Karpinski
Minnesota vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -10
Minnesota has a good team, not a lot of attention. A very good offense, that can move the ball. They come in off a tough loss to Ohio State 31-24 where David Cobb played amazing. Mentally, it will be tough to play the Huskers, on the road, after that. Nebraska has a run defense that is a bit is suspect. They are also coming in off a loss, but they got trounced 59-24 giving up 581 on the ground. They still have Ameer Abdullah in the backfield. And have a great running attack, of their own, and they always score points. This will be a tougher game than Wisconsin, but can handle it in Memorial Stadium.
Steve Janus
Iowa +10½
The Hawkeyes are showing exceptional value here as a double-digit home dog against the Badgers. Wisconsin is being extremely overvalued off last week's blowout win over Nebraska. This is a team that lost at Northwestern not that long ago. Iowa has been up and down all season, but have been consistently strong at home. The Hawkeyes are also strong defensively and have the talent up front on the defensive line to at least slow down Melvin Gordon. Iowa also has one of the more underrated homefield advantages. Wisconsin is on upset alert as the Hawkeyes are a serious live dog on Saturday.
Key Trend - Hawkeyes are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games against excellent rushing teams who average 230 or more yards/game and have won these contests by an average score of 27.7 to 22.8. BET IOWA +10.5!
Doug Upstone
Miami (Fla) vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia +6
Play Against road favorites like MIAMI, with an offensive averaging 440 or more yards per game, against an average offensive team like VIRGINIA (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards a play in their previous game. What to understand here is the away favorite was gashed rather badly and the next opponent can learn and go after those same type of weaknesses. Since 2010, teams like the Hurricanes are 6-26 ATS, losing by an average of almost 4.9 points a contest.
Steve Williams
Miami (Fla) vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia +6
Virginia plus the points over Miami is our Free Game of the Week. We've made a lot of money over the years with our spot plays. This is a bad spot for the Hurricanes. Blowing their last game against in state rival Florida State gives us a perfect spot to go against Miami. Virginia is 3-0-1 ATS last 4 games with Miami. Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS away last nine. Dog is 4-0 last 4 in this series.
Virginia battling to get bowl eligible, Miami battling to get into a better bowl game. Miami hangover from Florida State loss will keep the Cavaliers around. Field goal game here, Take the points with Virginia.
Steve Rich
Missouri vs. Tennessee
Play: Missouri +4
The 19th ranked 8-2 Missouri Tigers travel to Knoxville to take on the 5-5 Tennessee Volunteers Saturday night. Neyland Stadium in Knoxville is a storied venue that seats 102,000. Tennessee continues their trek to return to national prominence and become bowl eligible against a Tiger team that has a 4 game winning streak.
Missouri hasn’t really looked real good this year they just continue to win. They get turnovers or stops when they need them. QB Mauk hasn’t looked good at all for most of the year. He did play better in the win at A&M last week. The Tigers need to win out to win the SEC East for the second year in a row. For the troubles the offense has had the defense has been playing much better than they started the season playing. The defense now ranks 16th in scoring allowing just 20.1 ppg and 22nd in overall yardage defense. The Tigers have a healthy WR Darius White back and that has helped the offense.
Vols HC Butch Jones tweeted out that he wanted the stadium sold out Saturday night for Senior Night. This will be a large and raucous crowd. The Vols will surely give Mizzou all they have. Tennessee has won their last two games over South Carolina and Kentucky. They aren’t exactly powerhouses but still good wins in the SEC. The Vols offense scored 45 & 50 in those games. Both defenses are horrible, don’t look for them to put up those kind of numbers on the Tigers D. Also, of the most importance Tennessee is without the suspended LB A J Johnson. He is the defensive signal caller and Tennessee’s leading tackler. He was all SEC last year and second in the SEC in tackles this year. He will be missed.
I mentioned earlier Tennessee is learning to win, Missouri knows how to win already. The Tigers have been playing in big games for the last two years in the SEC. Mizzou is now 12-1 ATS away from home. I look for the Tigers to win this game outright and taking the points is a bonus.
Sam Martin
Miami FL at Virginia
Prediction: Virginia
Obvious letdown spot for the Hurricanes after having Florida State in the grasp and falling apart late for a 30-26 loss. Very hard for Miami to get up this week after coming so close to upsetting the Seminoles, and even worse that they have to do so away from home where they have struggled all season long. We'll fade Miami against a Virginia team that is in "must-win" mode needing two wins in their final two games to become bowl eligible.
Cavaliers have lost four straight against the meat of the schedule, but have had extra time off since their loss against Florida State two weeks ago. All four of Virginia's victories have come here at home where they are outscoring foes by 11 ppg. Miami is just 1-3 on the road with all three of those losses coming by double-digits (Louisville, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech), and away from home the Hurricanes scoring drops a full 9 ppg down from their season average. Cavaliers' bowl hopes stay alive with the outright victory!
MMA OddsBreaker
Dustin Ortiz
Dustin Ortiz is a winner. He finds ways to earn a decision even in fights he shouldn't. This is due to his excellent overall wrestling ability plus his high activity rate. Ortiz does a terrific job of constantly working through every transition. Joseph Benavidez is incredibly talented and possesses terrific power on the feet as well as submission ability. If Ortiz is able to to avoid the finishing ability of Benavidez, he has a decent opportunity to walk away with a judges' decision and pull off a massive upset come fight time. We feel Ortiz is massively undervalued here so we're taking a shot on him at the crazy odds he's currently being offered at.
River City Sharps
Purdue Pick
This is another “situational” play as we get Northwestern coming off a program-defining win at Notre Dame travelling to Purdue to take on the much improved Boilermakers. The Wildcats were able to rally late from an 11-point deficit to defeat Notre Dame in OT, moving them to 4-6 on the season. Meanwhile, Purdue is coming off a bye week and trying to find answers for their defensive struggles over the past three games. While Northwestern can brag about wins over Notre Dame and Wisconsin, they have also really struggled in Big 10 play, especially on the offensive side of the football. The Wildcats are only averaging 16.5 ppg in Big 10 play headed into West Lafayette on Saturday. Northwestern is a dreadful 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games overall and Purdue is 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss. Purdue HC Darrell Hazell is making progress in his rebuild of the Purdue football program and we think that progress continues on Saturday with a win over Northwestern. This is a great spot for Purdue and we expect them to get this done.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Arkansas/ Ole Miss Under 45: The Under is 13-3 in the Rebels’ last 16 road games and 4-1 in Arkansas’ last 5 SEC games. This game will be all about defense as the Rebels have one of the best in the nation, while the Razorbacks have played much better defense of late and excellent defense at home. Ole Miss has scored 28 ppg on the road, but one road game was vs a bad A&M defense and another was vs a bad Vandy defense. Their third road game was vs LSU and they scored just 7 points in that game and this Arkansas defense is much more like that of the Tigers than the first tow that Ole Miss faced on the road. The Hogs have allowed just 11.3 ppg in their last 3 games overall and just 16 ppg at home, which includes allowing a strong Alabama offense just 10 FD’s, 14 points and 227 total yards in an earlier game on this field. The Ole Miss defense has been very solid this year, allowing just 12 ppg overall and 11 ppg on the road, plus they have allowed just 15 ppg in SEC play and Arkansas has scored just 20 ppg in SEC play. Ole Miss and Arkansas both played LSU and Alabama, who both have great defenses and both games were low scoring. This one will follow suit as both defenses are tough and both offenses run the ball and are very conservative. Look for a 17-13 type game here.
Memphis/ South Florida Under 46: The Memphis defense has been excellent this year, as they come in ranked 8th in tyhe nation in points allowed, giving up just 17.5 ppg overall, while at home they have allowed just 16.3 ppg. Now they will face a bad USF offense that scored very little on the worst defense in the nation last week and averages just 18.6 ppg for the year. Overall USF is 122nd in total yards and 120th in scoring. The USF defense has been rather average this year and Memphis is not a powerful offensive team. They run allot and really move methodically down the field. That should keep the clock moving and their scoring down, while their defense keeps the USF scoring in check. 27-7 sounds about right.
BAYLOR -29.5 over Oklahoma State: The Bears have to hang a big margin of victory up on the Cowboys in this one and that is a good reason to be laying this many points, which is something I don't normally do. The Pears are tops in the nation in scoring and total yards, plus they are 3rd in the nation in passing. That is not good news for an OSU squad that is very young on defense and comes in with the 119th rated pass defense in the nation. Now for the Bears they are not all about offense as they come in ranked 14th in yards allowed and 19th in points allowed, giving up just 21 ppg. For the Cowboys they have scored 26.3 ppg, but all of that was done in the first half of the year as they have averaged a horrible 10 ppg in their last 4 games. That will not get it done vs the Bears in this one. I can see this as a 58-17 type game, but don't be surprised if they win by a bunch more as they will look to run up the score in this one.
BEST OF THE REST
Arizona State/ Washington State Over 71.5: Washington State is all about the pass as they rank 1st in the nation in that department, while ranking 127th in rushing. No ground game at all here and they will have to throw it all over the yard if they hope to keep pace with the high powered Arizona State offense that has averaged 36 ppg overall and 34 ppg at home. Let’s also note that ASU is now out of the playoff picture which means they just let it all hang out and have some offensive fun in this one. Vs a defense that allows 38 ppg on the year should make it easy for them to do that. Both teams should make this a fun one.
Vanderbilt +30.5 over MISSISSIPPI STATE: Vanderbilt has not had a good year, but they also haven’t lost a game by more than 27 points since week 2 vs Ole Miss. The Bulldogs come in off that crushing loss to Alabama and they have a date with Ole Miss on deck, so they may not be fully focused here. Yes I know they have to win big, but I just feel it will be hard for them to do that here, especially knowing that they just have to win out to be in the playoffs and that really makes next weeks game vs Ole miss that much more important. Miss State could win by just 21 here and will still be in the top 4. That makes this a flat spot for them and Vandy will find a way to cover this one.
USC/ UCLA Over 62.5: The USC offense has been a strong bunch all year as they have put up 25 ppg overall and 36.6 ppg in in their last 7 PAC-12 games. They will face a UCLA defense that has held just 1 of their last 6 opponents to less than 30 points. This defense has been torched many times this year, while the offense has put up plenty of points on the year, averaging 35 ppg overall and 37 ppg in conference play. USC did just allow 30 points to a high powered Cal offenses last week so they can be scored on and UCLA surely will. I look for this one to be played in the upper 60’s.
CALIFORNIA +6 over Stanford: Huge rivalry game here and that has me looking at a Cal team that has played inspired ball of late and are taking on a Stanford team that just has not played well down the stretch. The Stanford defense has been solid this year, but they seem to be wearing down, as they have allowed 26.3 ppg in their last 3 games, while also allowing 25.3 ppg on the road. Now they face a California offense that has put up 38.7 ppg in their last 3 and 39.2 ppg at home. The Stanford offense is not the same as last year and I just don’t see them scoring enough points to win this one.
DAVE COKIN
EASTERN WASHINGTON AT SMU
PLAY: SMU -15
This number is still mostly -14.5 as I’m writing this, but it’s trending up and given that it’s Big Sky on the road, my guess is that it won’t be heading back down.
That’s not meant as an insult to Eastern Washington. The Eagles are off to a good start and they could make some noise in conference this season. Jim Hayford is building something in Cheney, and I like his very confident approach. Hayford has been pumping up his team’s confidence and insists they’re looking to win and not just show up as they visit both SMU and Indiana over the next few days.
Hayford has reason to feel good about his Eagles. They’ve got most everyone back from last year’s entry and they’re off to an impressive start, albeit against less than stellar opposition. I don’t think this team is going to show any fear tonight, and that can make for a dangerous underdog.
But this might not be the right night to be facing SMU. The Mustangs are back home off a two-game trio that could not have gone much worse. They didn’t play well at Gonzaga, although the Bulldogs aren’t losing to anyone in their present form. Much more troubling was what amounted to a giveaway game at Indiana that left head coach Larry Brown feeling “sick to my stomach” and with good reason.
SMU shot it beautifully at Indiana and they completely dominated the glass. But the Mustangs exerted little pressure on defense, allowing Indiana way too many open looks from deep and they did a terrible job in the turnover category, losing that battle by a whopping -12. Winning anywhere is going to tough with those numbers.
The Mustangs were a bit overrated coming into the new season. A stud recruit opted to play as a pro in China and Markus Kennedy being ineligible for the first semester was another critical blow. I think you’ll see a different SMU team once Kennedy returns and this team should be at its best come March.
Nevertheless, I believe we’re going to get a big effort out of SMU tonight, in spite of the rivalry duel with Arkansas being on deck. Had SMU won at Indiana, I probably wouldn’t be getting involved here. But they didn’t and with the coach not real happy right now, it sure ought to be a spot where the Mustangs come to play.
I’ve got some respect for this Eastern Washington entry. But I’m a notorious Big Sky fader when I believe the other team is going to be focused, so I’ll be in that role right here. The number is certainly a concern, but if the Mustangs decide to play a full 40 off the bad trip, it’s likely to be fairly lopsided. I’ll go ahead and lay it with SMU tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Mississippi vs. Arkansas
Play: Point Spread: -3.5/-102 Mississippi -3.5
The Rebels are ready for this one as they have rest, a role where they have covered 6 of 7. Coach Freeze is 22-2 straight up vs teams that are .500 or worse and they have covered 7 of the last 8 on turf. Arkansas is a tough team at 5-5. However, they walked off that field after beating LSU like they has won a championship. They wont have that same intensity here and will struggle to score on an Ole Miss defense that is better,The Razorbacks are 4-18 vs winning teams and have still lost 19 of the last 22 in SEC Play. Look for Ole Miss to win this one.
Freddy Wills
Northwestern vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue
Northwestern is coming off a huge win while Purdue is coming off a bye. I see Purdue playing spoiler here. Northwestern is 124th in the country at 4.3 yards per play on offense. They certainly should never be favored on the road. They aren't here, but essentially are with the home team being a pk off a bye. Purdue can run the ball with a lot of pop from Akeem Hunt and Raheem Mostart. They have done it in conference play at 5.23 yards per carry. Northwestern checks in at 2.80 yards per carry on offense in conference play while their defense is giving up 4.79 over their last 3 and 4.68 in conference play. Northwestern is a team that could have won a lot more games, but I'm scratching my head and cant' take this team off a big win right now. Their running game is non-existent and Trevor Siemien has no red zone threats and has just 6 TD's to 10 INT's. Purdue is coming off their last 4 games playing 4 of the top 5 teams in the conference. In the end I don't think Northwestern is good enough to go bowling and they will overlook a Purdue team that is young, but improving quickly especially in the run game. I'll take the home team with the better running game at this point in the year every time.
Scott Spreitzer
Iowa +10
Wisconsin is getting a lot of mileage from last week's record-setting blowout win over Nebraska. But we're not sure it's a buy sign on Wiscy as a big road favorite this week. After all, Wisconsin has offered up a schematic mismatch on more than one occasion against the Huskers. The Badgers not only whipped Nebraska last Saturday, but also in the 2012 Big-10 championship. Yes, Melvin Gordon combined to rush for over 600 yards on 34 carries in the two games, combined, but the other ball carriers also ran for over 500 yards on nearly 8 yards per carry. They don't own such schematic advantages over Iowa and Kirk Ferentz has prepped his team well when against strong ground attacks. In fact, Iowa is 22-3 ATS under Ferentz against teams that average at least 5.25 yards per pop and they're 30-10 ATS against teams averaging at least 5.9 yards per play. The Hawkeyes bounced back well last time out, gaining momentum for a game against what looks to be an over-valued road favorite. I'm recommending a play on Iowa plus the points on Saturday.
Andy Iskoe
Purdue Pick
Last week we played on Northwestern with part of the handicap catching Notre Dame off the ugly loss to Arizona State that ended the Irish's hopes of making the Playoff. The Irish did lead Northwestern for much of the game but was no covering the inflated pointspread as Northwestern came back to force and win in overtime. That win was one of the Wildcats' biggest wins in a generation and they are now susceptible to a letdown as they face a Purdue team off a Bye week and has played better over the second half of the season. The Boilermakers are just 3-7 SU but 7-3 ATS with all 7 losses to teams that are likely to go to Bowls (and are all currently Bowl eligible with a combined record of 45-19 excluding the wins over Purdue). 4-6 Northwestern needs to win its last 2 games to become Bowl eligible. Both teams have weaknesses, mainly on defense. These teams have not met since 2010. Purdue is making progress under second season coach Hazell after going 1-11 last season. Northwestern, 10-3 in 2012, dropped to 5-7 last season and has been one of the nation's most enigmatic teams this season, losing Cal and Northern Illinois while also defeating Penn State, Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Purdue wins its final home game