Joe D'Amico
Oklahoma State at Baylor
Pick: Baylor
Baylor has a few things on mind here. For starters, the revenge factor, having gotten flattened, 49-17 in last year's matchup with OSU. Secondly, a Big 12 Championship, which with a win ties the team with TCU for the top spot. Lastly, and most importantly, despite beating TCU a month ago, they are located behind the Horned Frogs in the rankings. I expect the Bears to make an example out of the Cowboys team that has lost 4 in a row SU and their L5 against the number. Baylor owns the nation's top offensive unit, posting 50.1 PPG on 585.1 YPG and the #19 ranked "D", allowing a mere 21 PPG. Oklahoma State has been outscored, 150-28 in their current skid and are last in the Big 12 in Total Offense in Conference games. The OL is erratic which has resulted in QB, Garron tossing 12 INT's to equal his 12 TD's, while getting sacked 25 times. The Cowboys give up a ton of yards in the air (423.8 YPG). This doesn't bode well for the team in this matchup. The Favorite is 12-3 ATS the L15 meetings in this series. The Home Team is 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS their L5 Conference games, 0-4 ATS their L4 road games, and 0-7 ATS their L7 vs. teams with a winning record. The Bears are 10-2 ATS their L12 November games, 23-4 ATS their L27 at home, and 21-6-1 ATS their L28 overall.
Golden Retriever
Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins
Pick: Boston Bruins
We played Montreal last game for a 4-1 easy winner. That was their 7th victories over the last 8 outings, however, we'd like to go against them this time. Boston won a shootout under Niklas Svedberg last night, and reserved Tuukka Rask for this matchup. The Vezina Trophy winner has turned his season around, while he struggled in the first meeting against the rival, Rask is 6-1-0 with a 1.86 GAA and one shutout in seven November starts, a big part for them to win six in a row at home while allowing eight goals.
Jesse Schule
Louisville at Notre Dame
Pick: Louisville
The Irish were a playoff contender before losing to Florida State last month. They could have easily won that game, but they've since lost three of four, with the only win coming against Navy in a game that could have gone either way. The Cardinal also lost a heartbreaker to the Seminoles, but unlike Notre Dame they bounced back with a convincing road win at Boston College. The Cardinals defense ranks 10th in the nation, allowing opponents to average just over 17 points per game. That unit could get a boost with the return of senior linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin and defensive lineman Pio Vatuvei. The Irish had ranked near the top of the country on defense, but they've struggled to stop anyone in recent games. The good news for the Irish is that starting QB Will Gardner is out of the Cardinal, and his backup Reggie Bonnafon hasn't impressed much. The weather conditions for this game are expected to be less than ideal for both offenses though, with rain and freezing cold temperatures in the forecast. Winds are expected to exceed 25 KM/H, and mixed with rain that could make it tough in the passing game. The Cardinals have played six straight unders on grass, and the Irish have seen the total go under in 17 of their last 21 versus the ACC. In a low scoring game dominated by defense, you have to like L'Ville getting more than a FG.
Will Rogers
West Ham United vs. Everton
Pick: Everton
Two teams that are unbeaten over their last five games will square up at Goodison Park this afternoon. We find West Ham surprisingly high up in the table, currently holding down the fourth spot which would qualify them for Champions League football next season. That is of course unthinkable, and I think Everton who is a real contender for that CL spot will show its the better of the two teams in this encounter.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Missing Keys - West Ham's manager Sam Allardyce's view on football is very simple, but yet quite effective. It relies on speedy wingers who delivers pin-point crosses into the box for powerful strikers to finish off. Both those key ingredients could be missing here as Stewart Downing picked up a knee injury during national duty for England and top scorer Diafra Sakho might miss out as he aggravated a back problem while on duty with Senegal. Andy Carroll is expected to replace Sakho, but he's not the player he once was with Newcastle and is fresh off an injury making his first start of the season.
2. Dropping Form - Everyone's expecting West Ham to stop over-performing and drop toward the relegation zone where they usually belong. Perhaps its downfall has already started, coming off two consecutive draws against less than impressive teams like Stoke City and West Ham. Everton will be a real test, a test I believe they will fail.
3. X-Factor - Everton has won four straight meetings since 2012 outscoring West Ham 8-3 and is unbeaten over the last 13 match-ups.
Harry Bondi
CALIFORNIA (+6) over Stanford
Stanford is one of the most disappointing teams in the country this year and there's no way the Cardinal should be laying a TD on the road, not when their struggling offense has gone 0-4 ATS away from home this season, averaging a paltry 15 points per game. Stanford is also a money-eating 6-10 ATS the last three seasons when labeled as a favorite of between 3 and 10 points. The Cal defense has allowed a ton of yards and points this season, but Stanford simply does not have the offensive firepower to take advantage. The Bears are 7-3 ATS this season, including a 6-1 mark as an underdog, and get another cover here against their biggest rival. Home dog is barking!
Dave Essler
Arkansas +3.5
I am not a believer and never have been, or Wallace. I am far more of a buyer on Ole Miss' defense, but not on the road. They've had two weeks off, yes. However, the last "contact", if you will, was Presbyterian. Prior to, they lost to LSU and Auburn, and really have nothing to gain by winning this game. This game happens to be Arkansas' last home game, and the Hogs need this to get their sixth win. They shutout LSU, and played Mississippi State tough before that. The game is not played on paper, I don't trust Wallace (only three TD's on the road) and for the season the Rebels have played three road games, total. At Vanderbilt, at A & M, and the loss at LSU. Honestly, I think they get their third loss here and Arkansas gets Bowl Eligible, because the Hogs' final game is at Missouri, making this one that much more important.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Wisconsin / Iowa Under 52.5: A couple of power running teams and a couple of solid defenses should keep the scoring low in this game. The Badgers have been awesome on the defensive side of the ball of late, allowing just 180 ypg and 11.8 ppg in their last 4 games. Overall now this defense is 1st in yards allowed (244 ypg) and 3rd in points allowed (15.3 ppg). They will face an Iowa offense that is very methodically and conservative in nature and average just 5.3 yards per play on the year, while Wisconsin is 2nd in the nation allowing just 4.0 yards per play, including just 2.8 ypp in their last 3 games. Don't expect chuck plays from the Iowa offense in this one. On defense the Hawkeyes are 18th in total yards allowed and 17th in ypp allowed (4.6). At home this year they have allowed just 314.6 ypg and 18.4 ppg, while the Badgers have scored a very average 27.3 ppg on the road. The Under is 7-1 in the Badgers last 8 following a spread win, while the Under is 5-1 in Iowa's last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 24-17 sounds about right for this one.
Brad Diamond
USC vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA -3
In their annual classic the Bruins are running with a solid 7-2 record as they take on their hated cross-town rival #24USC who is 8-2 thus far. #11 UCLA has come on strong the last month because of the steady improvement of QB Hundley. This up-tick is directly related to the change in pass protection necessitated by the early season deficits in the Bruins front that gave up 23 sacks in the first five games. UCLA has allowed just 8 sacks in their most recent five games. Hundley shows with an effective 72% completion rate with 2,547 yards coming into action. UCLA is #20 in total offense (4,892) averaging 34.7 points per game. Defensively, the Bruins are #79 giving up 27.9 points per game. USC ranks #33 offensively (3,968) with 35.2 points per game. On defense the Trojans are #64 allowing (3,968) just 23.3 points per game. As a note both defensive units face the high flying offenses of the PAC-12 on a current basis, so don’t discount their abilities. One major advantage for UCLA...their off a BYE. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS after a bye week. In the series UCLA was being dominated by the Trojans concluding with a 50-0 win in 2011. Since the Bruins own a 73-42 point differential and back-to-back wins (2-0) after that massacre. Also, we know that turnovers are key in any game, but especially is these “must win” situations. USC is #3 in the PAC-12 in turnover margin, so UCLA needs to protect the ball with great focus. This encounter is critical for the PAC-12 South and will tell us who gets to Santa Clara and the Conference Championship game. On the road Southern California shows at 2-9 ATS vs. a winning home team. UCLA is 4-1 ATS at home vs. USC, while the home unit is 8-of-11 ATS in the series. Finally, the hot Bruins come in 5-1 ATS in the month of November.
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +32½ over OREGON
It’s hard to go against the famed Oregon Ducks and their vaunted offense. The Ducks are at home against a Colorado team that looks worse on paper than they actually are. We have seen over the course of the season that the Ducks have been consistently overvalued with large spreads similar to this one. Most notably, the Ducks’ sole-defeat came at the hands of a 24-point underdog in Arizona. With “The Civil War” looming against arch-rival Oregon State, this match-up against a lowly Colorado Buffaloes team is a troubled spot for the Ducks. This game can evolve in to a turbulent situation for the "Quack Attack" if they do not maintain their focus on an opponent that is better than their record indicates.
Colorado is 2-7, but the Buffaloes lost three games by a combined total of 11 points. In all three of these games the Buffaloes were heavy underdogs against recognized opponents: California, Oregon State and UCLA, with the loss to the Bruins occurring in triple OT. Considering that UCLA is a top-10 team in the most recent edition of the polls, it would suggest that the Buffalos are taken lightly by many or can play with quality clubs. Both work to our advantage. Furthermore, in Colorado’s most recent losses to Washington and Arizona, the Buffalos were competitive in both contests until the latter stages of the second half. The problem for Colorado is that they haven’t been able to finish strong, but they will be facing an Oregon defense that is one of the worst in the nation in defending the pass. This was impeccably illustrated on several occasions throughout the course of the year and Colorado has a secret weapon in Nelson Spruce. Spruce could be one of the best wide receivers in America, as he has gone for over 1,000 yards on the year and caught 11 touchdown passes. Spruce could be the difference maker that keeps Colorado in this game longer than expected or control the damage sustained to a far less severe extent. The Ducks have little to play for beyond a win over Colorado for its own sake and no incentive to try to really pile on a Buffalos team that's been a gritty performer as a big underdog. Five-touchdown favorites are almost, by definition, talented enough to win by eight touchdowns if sufficiently motivated; they are able to "name their score," as the saying goes. But until five hours before kickoff, the Ducks will be thinking more about Oregon State than Colorado. Asking teams like this to cover five touchdowns is a fundamental leak.
VIRGINIA +6 over Miami
Another team that is better than their record indicates. The Cavaliers are in desperate need of a win to finish out 6-6 and qualify for a bowl game. The Cavaliers will play host to a Miami Hurricanes team that may be demoralized and crushed, after surrendering a sixteen-point lead at home to defending National Champion and bitter rival Florida State, last Saturday. The extent of the injury to Miami’s motivation and confidence remains to be seen, but Virginia has been a tough team at home, all season long. The “Wahoos” are 4-2 at Scott Stadium, but have lost by a combined total of 8 points in those two affairs. One of the losses came against a highly touted UCLA team, and many speculate that the Cavaliers should have won the game if they were more responsible with the football, as the Bruins would score three defensive touchdowns. Since then, Virginia has been able to defeat reputable opponents in Charlottesville, including a very talented Louisville squad and an overlooked Pittsburgh Panthers. With desperation looming and Miami’s will in question, it is hard to pass up on a Virginia team that will be playing with the support of the Cavaliers faithful which have propelled them on their home field, all year long.
By contrast, Miami has not fared well in road games this year. They have lost three of their four contests by significant margins in hostile environments. This list includes Louisville (31-13), Nebraska (41-31) and Georgia Tech (28-17). Few teams in recent memory have taken a gut punch like the one that the Hurricanes took last week. It's hard not to question what the Wildcats have left in the tank at this point, and the grinding, physical challenge Virginia presents at Scott Stadium is not exactly what the doctor ordered. We’re calling the upset but will gladly take the points.
IOWA +10 over Wisconsin
Last Saturday was a record-breaking day for the Badgers of Wisconsin. The nation bore witness to history as their stud running back Melvin Gordon ran for 406 yards and broke future NFL Hall-of-Famer and former TCU Horned Frog, LaDanian Tomlinson's single-game rushing record. It only took Gordon three quarters, as he was able to run up, down and everywhere in between on a respected Nebraska Cornhuskers team that some analysts selected as a dark horse to win the Big-10. Wisconsin was able to put a damper in Nebraska's conference championship hopes and help their own cause, improving to 8-2 on the year, ascending to first place in the Big 10 West and reveling in their accolades against a formidable foe. Unfortunately, moments like this often set up a team like Wisconsin for an unexpected turn for the worst. Time and time again we see teams like Wisconsin have a huge game on one Saturday and follow up the next week with a dud. The question is how much of a hangover the Badgers have going in to a tough divisional match-up. The Badgers will be traveling to Des Moines, Iowa to face a rugged Iowa Hawkeyes team (7-3) that plays in Kinnick Stadium, one of the most difficult and feared places in America for opposing teams to travel to. Perhaps it is the walls painted pink in the visitor's locker room or the slew of Black and Yellow faithful that rally behind their beloved Hawkeyes, but Iowa has established a historic reputation of a distinct blend of home field advantage.
On the year the Hawks are 7-3, boasting a top 20 defense and an efficient offense that compiles 399 yards per game. At Kinnick Stadium, the Hawkeyes are 4-1, losing just one game to arch-rival Iowa State on a late game-winning field goal. The game by no means was a walk in the park for the Cyclones and it shouldn't be for Wisconsin either. Nevertheless, the Hawkeyes enter as substantial home underdogs. Furthermore, Iowa has incentive to win this game. Iowa hosts both Wisconsin and Nebraska in their final two games of the regular season and they get them both at home. If the Hawkeyes win out, they would seal a piece of the West Division title and potentially earn a trip to the Big-10 championship if Minnesota were to lose one of its final two games. Regardless of the outcome, Iowa will be out in full force like they always are at Kinnick Stadium and while the Badgers are damn tough, no matter how you break it down, the points offered here are an overreaction to their highlight reel win a week ago.
Dave Price
Notre Dame -3
The Fighting Irish made the mistake of letting Arizona State beat it twice. They weren't able to let go of a crushing defeat in the desert and wound up losing at home to Northwestern last week. Now off back-to-back defeats, I expect to see a highly motivated Notre Dame team on Senior Day. In games odds makers project to be close, my money's on Brian Kelly. His teams are 16-6 ATS all-time in games when the line is +3 to -3. Louisville (7-3) is no slouch, but recent history suggests the Fighting Irish will be up to the challenge. They are 12-4 ATS under Kelly versus teams carrying a win percentage of 60-75%, including 7-0 ATS versus such teams the last three seasons. They've won these seven by an average score of 22.4 to 15.0.
Chase Diamond
Boston College vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State -17
This game features the 6-4 Boston College at the 10-0 FSU. I have been one of the biggest FSU critics all year betting against them many games but this is a game that has FSU blowout written all over it. They are now ranked only 3rd by the Playoff round table and I believe this team is tired of getting no respect and the Public 56% are backing the road BC here. Take FSU minus the points. This game will be over at halftime which is unusual for FSU games.
Brandon Shively
Appalachian State vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -15½
I like the Virginia Tech Hokies to go ahead and run the score up in this one. Virginia Tech brings in new HC Buzz Williams that is looking to turn this basketball program around. While the Hokies might be overmatched in conference play, this is a game they can dominate. They have started off the season going 2-0, shooting 56% from the floor (48% 3 PT) and have held their opponents to 36% shooting from the floor. The Hokies are a smaller team that will be playing a 3 guard or maybe even a 4 guard lineup sometimes. When they play Duke, UNC, and other ACC opponents, this might be trouble but not today.
Virginia Tech has a true point guard in 6'4" Devin Wilson who is dishing out 7.5 assist a game. He can get to the lane and is looking like he has worked on his shot over the summer. The Hokies have been using a solid 9 man rotation that consist of most guards that can all shoot the 3 ball and it will be their depth and fresh legs to end up winning this game by 20+ points vs. a depleted Appalachian State team.
Appalachian State has started off the season going 0-2 losing by 26 and 19 points vs. Ohio and Furman. Their leading scorer from last season, Tab Hamilton is suspended for this game. Also suspended is Jacob Lawson who is a Purdue transfer (6'8" 230 lb) and Michael Obacha (6'8" 220) is out with an injury. These are 3 guys that would be starting on the team and now their depth is a serious issue. App. State is outclassed in this game as they do not have any guards that are reliable. Through their first two games, App. State is only shooting 36% from the floor (25% 3 PT) and 58.5% from the foul line.
In closing, Appalachian State just not have the talent to keep this one close. Sure, the 16 points that we are laying is a large number for Virginia Tech, but they are playing at home and have the much better shooting team. I think we will see several big scoring runs from Virginia Tech as they are a team that can get out in transition off missed baskets and score with Wilson running the point. I look for them to win this game in the 77-54 range this afternoon.
Raiderman
Missouri +5.5 & ML +185
I feel like I am getting the ultimate combination of road dog/road warrior with the Missouri Tigers in this game. The Tigers come in on a 4 game winning streak, and they lead the SEC East and are looking to take it on in with the East championship. Further, the Tigers come in 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games. The Tigers are 4-0 on the road this season and they are scoring an average of 36.5 points per game in those road contests. This Tiger team is getting it done with defense. During their current 4 game winning streak, the Tigers D is allowing 16 PPG and an average of 281 yards per game to their opponents. Missouri's offense does remain inconsistent, although this offense put together its most complete game of the season last Saturday, racking up 587 yards against the Aggie D. Meanwhile, Tennessee is getting better. Butch Davis has this team going in the right direction with two wins in a row. But they still have a ways to go. Over the Vols last 4 games, their D is surrendering 435 yards per game and 30 PPG (surrendering over 30 in 3 of those 4). The offense has definitely picked it up, scoring 95 points in its last two games. However, the Vols offense will be up against it Saturday, as Missouri's D has proven as stout as any in the SEC. I like what Butch Davis is doing with Tennessee, but they don't have the horses yet to play with Missouri. The SEC's road warriors go into Neyland Stadium on Saturday and get the win.
Joe Gavazzi
Wisconsin -10)
We used Iowa last week as our 2* Top Play of the Week in their 30-14 crushing of the Illini with a 304-88 edge at the point of attack. With a 4-2 SU ATS mark in Big 10 play, they hold their title game fate in their own hands. Never easy to buck long-term Iowa HC Ferentz on this field, where he has a 60% long-term spread record in Big 10 games, as well as a perennially strong dog log. But, there is no way we are backing off the late-season run of Wisconsin, which has resulted in a 4-0 SU ATS surge in which they have outscored opponents by an average of 46-12. Last week, against a decent Nebraska front 7, Wisconsin erupted for a 581-118 overland edge, including a record breaking 406 RYs on 16.3 YPR by RB Gordon. With a defense that is Dandy, allowing just 15 PPG, 244 YPG and 4.1 YP play, we are not standing in their way. Remember, it was just 2 short weeks ago that Iowa lost to Minnesota (51-14) when the Gophers outrushed them 291-84.
ASA
Oklahoma St. at Baylor
Play: Baylor -29
Baylor currently sits outside of the “Final 4” and they need to win impressively if they’d like to have a chance to move into that elite group. Thus, we have a situation where the Bears and head coach Art Briles will not slow down even if they do get a huge lead. Briles has shown his colors to “rub it in” by destroying a number of teams over his career. He’s a perfect 10-0 ATS as a home favorite of two TD’s or more in Big 12 play AND Briles is 9-0 ATS when favored by 24 points or more. His potent offense gives him the opportunity to do that again this weekend. The Bears lead the Big 12 averaging 50 PPG and 585 YPG. At home this year they have scored 70, 61, 60 and 45 points! Not only do they have the “Final 4” motivation here, they also lost @ Oklahoma State last year as a 7.5 favorite. The Cowboys are among the youngest teams in college football and they are nowhere near the caliber of their recent squads. After beating the 3 worst teams in the Big 12 to start the season (Kansas, Iowa State, and Texas Tech) they have since lost 4 straight games. Those losses came at the hands of Texas, Kansas State, West Virginia, and TCU, all by at least 21 points. The Cowboy offense has not scored more than 14 points in any of those most recent 4 games while the defense has been torched for almost 40 PPG in those 4. OSU’s starting QB Garman has had concussion problems and may not play this weekend. If to, the Cowboys will have to go with a true frosh who hasn’t taken a snap this year and who they planned on redshirting. Even if Garman can go, this offense has been atrocious as of late as we stated above, leading the Big 12 in 3 and outs this season. Now this struggling offense (and defense) faces a motivated team capable of scoring 60 points on almost anyone. That’s not a recipe for success for Okie State. This one gets ugly as Baylor, off a bye, need to impress.