Bryan Power
Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee
Pick: Tennessee
With revenge and bowl eligibility hanging in the balance, Ill go ahead and lay the short number w/ the Vols at home Saturday night.
Before we get started, please note that I have already won EVERY DAY Monday through Thursday this week & have been up since DAY ONE this year in College Football!
It's not often that UT loses to its in-state rival, but it happened last year as Vandy got them in Nashville, 41-18 as 2.5-point favorites. Not only was it just the 2nd time that the Commies had been favored over the Volunteers as SEC rivals, but it was their 1st win at home against Tennessee since 1982 and their largest margin of victory in the series since 1954! That said, the Vols have still won 34 of the last 37 years including 17 of 18 here in Neyland Stadium.
Vanderbilt, despite wins over both Georgia and Florida, is not as strong this season compared to last. They are coming off a win, but were +4 in turnovers vs. Kentucky and those who bet the Commodores should be thanking their lucky stars for the cover as they threw a TD pass in the final minute. Remember that Kentucky has now lost its last 14 SEC games.
Tennessee is off a much needed bye as in the previous three games they had to play Alabama, Missouri and Auburn. Before that, they dealt w/ Georgia and South Carolina. No team in the country has played a harder schedule since the start of October. It's a wonder that 1st year HC Butch Jones even still has a shot at bowl eligibility, which will require his team winning out. Closing out the regular season next week against Kentucky should allow them to get to six wins, provided they are victorious here as well. Remember that UT has been shutout of the postseason the last two years. Jones has already snapped the program's long losing streak to ranked teams w/ a win over South Carolina. I see this team ending up in a bowl.
Marc Lawrence
Cincinnati vs. Houston
Pick: Cincinnati
Gee, maybe ol’ Tubs hasn’t forgotten how to coach after all. After a mediocre 3-2 season start (scored only 14 points against Miami Ohio!), we started thinking new HC Tommy Tuberville had made a mistake in ditching Lubbock for the Queen City. But with 6th-year SR starting QB Brendon Kay now leading the nation in pass completion percentage, the Bearcats have reeled off five straight wins – and have a legitimate shot at matching their 10-3 mark the previous two seasons under Butch Jones. The ‘Cats have also been outstatted only once this year, making them a ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ underdog play here. Meanwhile, the upstart Cougars are just 2-6 ITS in their last eight games and have lost three of the last five on the scoreboard. Houie has gained a lot of love from handicappers after taking conference powers UCF and Louisville to the limit over the last two weeks, but the fact is both games ended in defeat. So, after taking 17 points against the Cardinals and 13 points against the Knights, we’re leery of the Cougars showing up as chalk against a red-hot Cincinnati squad that’s gone 4-1 ATS of late in this series. Houston is routinely mentioned as owning one of the country’s most prolific offenses but the Bearcats gain more yards on that side of the ball and field a much stronger defense. We’ll side with Tubs and company in this WTF (Wrong Team Favored) special. we recommend a 1-unit play on Cincinnati.
Teddy Covers
Texas A&M vs. LSU
Play: Over
The Aggies have scored at least 41 points in every game, including their matchup against Alabama’s elite defense. Let’s not forget that the Crimson Tide gave up 42 points and 628 yards of total offense against the Aggies, but only 50 points in eight games since that shootout.
LSU isn’t any more likely to shut down Johnny Manziel than any of the other SEC defenses that Texas A&M has shredded in recent weeks. The last three good offenses the Tigers have faced – Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia – combined to score 109 points against LSU’s stop unit.
But Kevin Sumlin’s defense can’t be trusted to get stops, which is why A&M has exceeded 78 points in all six previous SEC games. And Cam Cameron’s offense is no joke; primed for a bounceback showing after last week’s rough second half against ‘Bama. Even a few rainshowers can’t slow these two top notch attacks! Take the Over.
Bryan Leonard
Georgia St +24
When laying a huge number like we see here the favorite must be able to dominate the opposition on both sides of the ball. While we feel the Red Wolves will put up substantial offensive numbers we're not sure they will be able to score enough to hold off the pesky Panthers. Against Sun Belt opposition Arkansas State has permitted over 430 yards per game. The largest Sun Belt win for the Red Wolves was 28 against ULM. In five league games the Red Wolves have been out gained by 187 total yards. Throw in the fact that this team has Western Kentucky revenge on deck for their only conference loss last year, and we see this game being much tighter than the spread suggests.
While Georgia State is winless on the season the Panthers are 7-1 ATS in lined contests. This is a squad that has lost by more than this spread just once all season in conference action. Despite playing the overall tougher schedule Georgia State has just a 1.0 yards per play deficit in this contest. When comparing the four common opponents we see that Georgia State was out gained by 490 yards, Arkansas State was out gained by 153, an 84 yard Red Wolves advantage per game. That doesn't equate to a spread of this magnitude. Sure Arkansas State will gain the victory here, but it won't be nearly as easy as the market projects.
Dave Price
Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5
Iowa had won three straight against Michigan before it fell 42-17 in Ann Arbor last November. At home on senior day following an extra week of preparation, the Hawkeyes will have their revenge. You want to take favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that check in off a double-digit road win when they’re matched up against an opponent that checks in off a road win. That’s because doing so has produced a 27-5 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by 6.9 points on average and have won by an average of 17.9 points. This system is 11-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. Michigan’s upset win at Northwestern in triple-OT last week puts it in a tight spot here. Consider that the Wolverines are on a 1-11 ATS skid following an upset win on the road. The Wolverines are also a soft 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 road games. In addition, Iowa is 11-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points under coach Kirk Ferentz. It has won these games by an average score of 31.9 to 17.4. Lay the points.
Nelly
Iowa State - over Kansas
Getting a Big XII win was huge for Kansas last week as the Jayhawks upset West Virginia to avoid a third straight winless conference season. James Sims had a great day on the ground for Kansas with some big runs and there were some breaks in the game as Kansas was out-gained in the upset. It was a terrible spot for West Virginia as the Mountaineers nearly beat Texas the previous week and faced a third road game in four weeks with long travel. It has been a tough season for 1-9 Iowa State but the Cyclones are in a final home game this week and this should be a spot the team comes together to play well. Iowa State won 51-23 in this matchup last season on the road and the Cyclones have won three in a row in this series. Last week's loss to Oklahoma had a very misleading final score as the Cyclones have been more competitive than it looks and the home schedule has featured very close games with quality teams including losing by six to Iowa, by one against Texas, and by four against TCU. The 31-point loss to Oklahoma State was also very misleading as the yardage was nearly even and it was a one-score game into the second half before turnovers turned the tide. Kansas has not won a road game since 2009, losing 23 in a row with just a 6-16-1 ATS mark and this will be just the second smallest underdog spread for Kansas on the streak. These are not good teams but this situation sets up well for Iowa State to play well and Kansas to perhaps be a bit flat on the road off huge win for the program.
River City Sharps
Utah St -10.5
This would be a bigger play (and you are more than welcome to play it that way) but our fault, this is a line we should have jumped on sooner. This game opened at 7.5 and is now sitting at 10.5 or 11! Snooze you lose! We really like what Utah State has done with their team since having to replace QB Chuckie Keeton. They struggled last week a bit with UNLV, but have been scoring over 31 ppg. The story, however, has been their defense, as they are holding opponents to just over 19 ppg. Interesting stat here....in games against common opponents, Colorado St has given up an average of 36.5 ppg while Utah State has only allowed 16.5 ppg. The Aggies defense and home cooking spells a double digit win for Utah State.
Jimmy Boyd
NC State +6½
The Wolfpack are getting a lot of points for a home team considering East Carolina has played such a soft schedule this season. The talent gap between Conference USA and the ACC is a big one. The Pirates may average a lot of points per game, but you also have to consider the fact that their opponents defensive average for points allowed is over 30 points per game. In East Carolina's game against Virginia Tech, they managed to score a mere 10 points which illustrates the talent gap between the two conferences.
The Wolfpack are a .500 team when playing at home. They have a 3-3 record, and have played some great defense. NC State's opponents have averaged 28.7 points per game, yet the Wolfpack have allowed just 21 points per game when they are playing at home. The Pirates have a very strong pass bias, and I expect them to struggle against a Wolfpack secondary that has allowed a 57.6% pass completion rate for a mere 206 passing yards per game.
GamePlan
Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse
Play: Pittsburgh +1
Here's an old rivalry that has experienced some great moments over the years. This won't be one of them as both teams are struggling through mediocre seasons and may need to win this game to earn a Bowl Game. Pittsburgh is coming off a tough loss to North Carolina, while the Orange are coming off an absolute drubbing at the hands of Florida State. While Pitt sits at just 5-5, the Panthers have been competitive in 9 of their 10 games, with the only blowout coming in the season opener against the mighty Seminoles of Florida State. Syracuse has been far less consistent, looking really good at times, but also getting absolutely BURIED in four contests...losses to FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Northwestern. The key game to consider here is Georgia Tech which is the most easily comparable common opponent. The Panthers gave Georgia Tech all they wanted in a 21-10 road loss where Pitt actually led for a good chunk of the game. By comparison, the Orange were humiliated on the road when they visited the Yellow Jackets and Syracuse has not seemed to recover from that beating despite solid wins over ACC foes Wake Forest and Maryland.
The Pitt defense has been solid for much of the year despite playing a pretty darn tough schedule. The highlight of the year came in a victory over Notre Dame, plus the Panthers were very competitive in losses to teams like Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Syracuse has proved dominant against teams with bad offenses who cannot protect their quarterback, but the Orange have really struggled against anyone who has shown real physicality along the line of scrimmage. Syracuse QB Terrell Hunt got off to a great start in his career, but he has completely fallen apart in recent weeks and he's definitely a notch or two below Pitt's Tom Savage, though the latter hasn't exactly set the world on fire either. Unless the Syracuse pass defense gets a LOT better overnight, we look for the Panthers to get a hard-earned road victory in this one.
Chip Chirimbes
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
Play: Wisconsin -16½
The Wisconsin Badgers are the only team that hasn't been beaten by the numbers as the are 9-0-1 ATS. It's difficult to understand how two teams from the same conference with the same record can have such a large point spread differential. Minnesota is on a four-game winning streak and has had a week off and they have Michigan State next. The Badgers have won nine straight in the series and just seem to have their way against the Gophers. Wisconsin already has two runners with over 1,00 yards Melvin Gordon and James White and a third ready to crash that mark. Number out of whack.
Red Dog Sports
Baylor vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Under 79½
Both teams are great on offense but the game will be played at Oklahoma State and the Cowboys will do what they can to slow down the Bears' offense. Bryce Petty can run and pass for Baylor but all it takes is for one team to not show up on offense and we have a game that stays under. I think we see a final score in the low 70's.
Jeff Alexander
Oklahoma State +9.5
I'll take the points with Oklahoma State at home where it has won 16 of its last 17, including 8 straight. The Cowboys have also won 10 straight home games against Baylor. Additionally, Baylor is on a 0-36 slide in road games against AP-ranked opponents, including 0-10 under Briles with three of these coming in Stillwater. I really like what Oklahoma State’s defense brings to the table. It leads the Big 12 in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert first downs just 32.0 percent of the time. Its third down success is directly related to what it has been able to accomplish on first down. It has held foes to three yards or fewer on 185 of 343 first-down plays this season (53.9 percent of the time). In other words, they’ve enjoyed plenty of third-and-longs. I expect Oklahoma State's defense to be just a little bit better at home Saturday. Bet the Cowboys as they give Baylor a game.
Jim Feist
Texas A&M vs. LSU
Play: LSU -4
This Texas A&M is terrible, 89th in the nation allowing 30.9 ppg. They lost to Bama (49-42), beat Ole Miss (41-38), lost to Auburn (45-41) and come off a 51-41 win over Miss State. The Aggies defense allowed 556 yards (299 rushing). LSU has great balance on offense behind senior QB Zach Mettenberger (20 TDs, 7 INTs, 2,733 yds) and the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Meanwhile the Aggies are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Play LSU!
Eddie J
Michigan vs Iowa
Pick: Michigan
The 7-3 Michigan Wolverines head to Iowa to take on the 6-4 Hawkeyes on Saturday afternoon. Michigan averages 34.3 PPG and has the #19th ranked defense allowing only 347.6 yards per game. QB Devin Gardner with 25 total TD's has 2 top receivers's in Jeremy Gallon and Devin Funchess who both average 16.3 yards per catch. Iowa has a solid defense allowing only 319.2 yards per game which is good for 9th in the country and are led by RB Mark Weisman with 777 yards on the ground. The defenses matchup with each other but Michigan has way too many playmakers on offense and as long as they protect the football they will win this game SU. Michigan routed Iowa 42-17 last year and much hasn't changed for these 2 squads. Take the Wolverines.
Joe Gavazzi
Ohio St. -34
Top 5 BCS teams must always lay inflated number in November. In this case, however, due to the hot start this season by Indiana, this number is little more than a TD higher than where it would have been to open the season. Last week, Indiana suited up against Wisconsin without RB Coleman, their best runner, who is again expected to miss this game. Indiana was outrushed 554- 102 in their annual 51-3 drubbing at the hands of the Badgers. Meanwhile, Ohio St. was costing themselves style points in allowing 35 points to the Illini. Yet, the Buckeyes still had a resounding victory of 60-35 outrushing the Illini 441-132. That poor defensive performance has made life miserable for many Ohio St. defenders in this week’s Columbus practices. Expect a resounding Ohio St. victory as the Buckeyes win their 23rd consecutive game under HC Meyer. In so doing, consider the streaks that will be extended. Ohio St. is currently on an 11-3 ATS run, has a long term record of 47-22 ATS vs. the Big 10 (10-4 ATS under Meyer), and is on a run of 12-4 ATS laying 23 or more points. No defensive apathy from the Buckeyes this week, knowing they allowed the Hoosiers 49 points last year.
Florida St. -57
Potential legal issues for Sem QB Winston did not appear to negatively impact his performance in last week’s 59-3 wipeout of Syracuse. Style points continue to be a priority for this team with a realization that a National Championship season has real potential. The Seminoles are now 10-0 ATS as home favorite of 14 or more points with a cover margin of 16 PPG. Key factor of coverage is that the second team of Florida St. is still notably better than Idaho.