Kyle Hunter
Boise State vs. San Diego State
Play: Boise State -5
The Boise State Broncos lost to San Diego State at home last year. Boise State almost never loses at home, and you better believe they circled this game a very long time ago. The Broncos will be out for revenge here. San Diego State was very fortunate to win last week in Hawaii against a winless Hawaii team. The Aztecs have some nice pieces, but they also aren't a complete team. Chris Petersen's team will be ready for this one. Expect Boise State to exact revenge on San Diego State. Take Boise State.
Rob Vinciletti
Western Kentucky vs. Texas State
Play: Western Kentucky -4½
WKU fits a nifty little road warrior system that plays on road favorites that were road favorites in their last game and won the game but failed to cover the spread and allowed 17 or less points. These teams are 32-9-3 to the spread. The Hilltoppers coach Pertrino has won 13 of 14 in conference games if he has won the last 2, covering in 11 of those 13 wins. Western Kentucky has edges on both sides of the ball against a Texas St team that has lost 7 of 8 vs winning teams. WKU is 12-4 to the spread on the road and should emerge with a win and cover here tonight. Take Western Kentucky.
Freddy Wills
Michigan State vs. Northwestern
Play: Northwestern +7½
Northwestern keeps finding new ways to lose, but they have been in every game with the exception of their hang over vs. Wisconsin
Flying under the radar is the play of Northwestern's defense. Michigan State's offense is no juggernaut especially on the road and QB Connor Cook has only been great when they are able to run the ball. Northwestern has kept all opponents under 5 yards per carry except Wisconsin and Ohio State. Northwestern's pass defense has also been great with 18 interceptions. That's led to good 3rd down defense which is where Michigan State will run into trouble in this game. Northwestern is also solid in red zone defense allowing just 54% touch downs while Michigan State is only converting 47% of their RZ appearances on the road into TD's.
Northwestern essentially beat Nebraska on the road where Michigan State won as a -5.5 road favorite. IF you remember Nebraska threw a silly 60 yard hail mary to win the game. So we have established NW on neutral field is better than Nebraska yet we are getting 2 extra points. NW is a well coached team that has shown they can battle through tough breaks. This is their game of the year and their chance to show up with a big win to save their bowl hopes. I won't be surprised if it happens.
Joseph D'Amico
Texas A&M vs. LSU
Play: Over 73
Only 1 game separates these two teams in the SEC West. The Aggies are 8-2 overall, 4-2 in Conference play, 5-5 ATS, and have 8 OVERS and 2 UNDERS. The Tigers are 7-3 SU, 3-3 in Conference play, 4-5-1 against the number, and also have 8 OVERS and 2 UNDERS. The Aggies have one revenge game this season on their minds and this is it after they lost LY's matchup, 24-19. LSU has 3 losses and 1 more can definitely change their post-season situation. A&M puts up 578 Total Yards and 49.2 PPG. Johnny Manziel with 3313 YP a 73% CR, 31/11 TD/INT ratio and another 600 yards rushing and 8 more scores on the ground making him a solid shot at back-to-back Heisman's. LSU posts 460.4 YPG and account for 37.9 PPG. QB, Mettenberger has a 65.7% CR, 2733 YP, and 20/7 TD/INT ratio. RBs Hill, Magee, and Hilliard combined for almost 1700 YR and 24 TDs while Beckahm jr and Landry have about 2100 yards receiving and 16 scores. Here's the issue, A&M ranks from 88th to 106th in every major defensive category allowing 30.9 PPG on 454.4 YPG while LSU yields 353.7 YPG and when facing mobile QBs, they get shredded like the 44 they gave up to Georgia and the 38 to 'Bama. The game is going to be a shootout. The OVER is 7-0 in the Aggies L7 Conference games and 8-2 in the Tigers L10 overall. Take the Over here.
Brandon Shively
Washington vs. Oregon State
Play: Oregon State +1½
Oregon State is a 'mission' team this year and while they have been disappointing in the recent weeks, they are in good position to knock of the Washington Huskies who are 0-3 SU in Pac 12 play this year on the road.
Oregon State comes into this game with revenge on their mind from last year's 20-17 loss. It was a tough loss because Oregon State dominated the stats, 427-293. It was quarterback Sean Mannion's first game back from an injury and he threw 4 interceptions showing his rust. This year, Mannion has been much sharper and leads in the Beavers and a high powered aerial attack.
HC Mike Riley has a good coach and he knows how to cover spreads. I like Oregon State and their 17 returning starter team to right the ship tonight vs. a Washington team that is expected to be without their starting quarterback, Keith Price. Price got injured in last week's game and is listed as doubtful for this game. His replacement his rFR Cyler Myles who will be under pressure in Corvalis. This is atough stadium for any quarterback to play at, especially one that is making his first collegiate start. Myles is a mobile quarterback, but I expect him to make more mistakes than the senior Sean Mannion for Oregon State.
Oregon State has owned this series going 8-1 ATS the last 9 matchups and I like the fact that HC Mike Riley is 12-1 ATS his last 13 tries in conference games of B2B losses when the last game was a conference game.
Look for the senior quarterback, Sean Mannion, to lead his team at home and get this mission team back on track with a satisfying revenge win.
Bruce Marshall
UTEP vs Tulane
Pick: Tulane
We’re not convinced that win over impotent FIU is any buy signal for UTEP, whose fans have already turned their attention to Tim Floyd’s hoopsters. Bowl-eligible Tulane has had a bye week to straighten out recent offensive malaise and get QB Nick Montana healthy again. Green Wave might actually sell a few tickets for once in their final home game at venerable Superdome before move back to campus and new stadium next year.
Charlie Scott
Michigan vs. Iowa
Play: Michigan
Michigan has Not played their best ball this Season, but they do have talent & speed. To be honest I just don't understand this line, Iowa is a decent Team as a Dog, but should Not be favored by this many points because their offense struggles to score points. Take the Points !
Bill Milton
Northwestern (+) over Michigan State
Wildcats have lost six in a row coming into this, but in reality could have won five of those six games, so they are better than the record shows. Also, even with the long losing streak, with a win here and next week vs Illinois they will be going to a bowl, so they can salvage something out of this season. As for MSU, they of course want to win this, but they can still clinch the Legends Division with a win next week against Minnesota, or more likely a loss later today by the Gophers, as UM plays Wisconsin. MSU did benefit from five Nebraska turnovers last week and turned four of those miscues into points in a game in which they were actually outgained. Too much value to pass up here...we will take the home team.
Harry Bondi
UTAH +2 over Washington State
Washington State is in a horrible spot here as they come in off a huge upset win at Arizona and have a huge rivalry game on deck just six days away when they square off in the Apple Cup against Washington. That’s a tough predicament for a young team not used to success. Utah has fallen on hard times since beating Stanford at home, losing four straight games, but this defense is for real. The Utes lead the nation in sacks and have limited the offenses of Oregon, USC and Arizona State to below their season average in points per game. WSU QB Connor Halliday leads the conference in INTs and we expect him to be forced into some key mistakes today. On offense, the Utes are without starting QB Travis Wilson, who suffered a concussion back on Nov. 9, but will lean on a running game that will have success against a soft Cougar defensive front. It’s letdown city for WSU as Utah steals a road win.
Alex Smith Sports
Coastal Carolina vs South Carolina
Pick: Coastal Carolina
The Chanticleers from Myrtle Beach will have a solid crowd with them in Columbia on Saturday. This is a pretty potent offensive attack and South Carolina is still looking for a shot at the SEC Title game, which means they will put up an effort, but this is a solid backdoor spot as the Gamecocks will sit starters if a big lead is established. I'll take Coastal getting 5 TDs
EZWINNERS
Wake Forest +6
Duke takes to the road in the rare role of a road favorite when they take on Wake Forest in this match up. This game also marks the first time that the #25 ranked Dukies play as a ranked team since their 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl loss to Wisconsin. I always look to fade teams that are favored against a team that has had their number in recent years and that is the case in this match up. The Blue Devils are 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings between these two teams but they have been the underdog in those games. The Demon Deacons have beat the Dukies straight up in twelve out of the last thirteen meetings between these two teams. This is also a huge flat spot for Duke as they are coming off of a huge win against the Miami Hurricanes last week and have a showdown with arch rival North Carolina on deck next week while Wake Forest is coming off of a bye week. I don't think Duke will handle last week's success well especially going on the road being expected to win the game against a rested team. Duke has won and covered the spread in five straight games, but they have been outgained in their last three wins and that usually does not bode well for a team in the role of the favorite. Wake Forest has struggled this season but they can still make it to a bowl with a win here and a win next week. Look for the Demon Deacons to throw everything they have at Duke after having two weeks to prepare. Take the points.
Nebraska +1.5
I believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup. The 7-3 Cornhuskers are coming off of a 41-28 loss last week to Michigan State, but Nebraska was much more competitive than the score would indicate. The Huskers actually outgained the Spartans 392 yards to 361 yards but killed themselves with five costly turnovers. Michigan State has one of the best defenses in the nation, while Penn State does not. The Nittany Lions have been gashed in several games this season and I expect Nebraska to do the same. PSU is going to see a heavy dose of Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah who rushed for 123 yards against the stout Spartans defense for an average of 5.7 yards per carry. If Abdullah gets things going on the ground like I think he will, that will take the pressure off of freshmen quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. and open up passing opportunities in play action. Penn State has a freshmen quarterback of their own in Christian Hackenberg. Hackenberg is the favorite for the Big Ten's freshmen of the year award as he has thrown for 2,399 yards and fourteen touchdown, but he also has thrown nine interceptions. Hackenberg will face a lot of pressure from Nebraska defensive end Randy Gregory who leads the Big Ten in sacks with 8.5. I look for the Huskers to force Penn State into a few mistakes and to control the clock with their running game as the pick up the win at Happy Valley. Take the points.
Oklahoma State +9.5
Baylor has been unbelievable this season with an offense on pace to set major records at 61 points and 685 yards a game the Bears are riding a school best thirteen game winning streak and have matched their highest ever Associated Press ranking. But laying double digits on the road against Oklahoma State seems crazy to me as the Cowboys are 16-1 in their last seventeen game played in Stillwater. Eleventh ranked Oklahoma State was the preseason Big 12 favorite and has won six straight games to get right back in the thick of the Big XII title chase. The Cowboys have also improved their play every week since Senior Clint Chelf took over at quarterback and junior Desmond Roland assumed the primary running back duties four games ago and are coming off an impressive road win against Texas last week. The Bears knocked of Oklahoma State by seven points last year in Waco but that was only the second time in the last sixteen meetings that Baylor has beat Oklahoma State. Baylor has a loaded team, but they been hit by some key injuries to wide receivers and running backs and also lost starting left tackle Spencer Drango for the season. Baylor hasn't beaten a ranked team on the road since 1991 and they have not won in Stillwater since 1939. This one has the feel that the team with the ball last wins the game. Take the points.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Saturday is on BYU, as only need to pick the winner in this game, and I like the Cougars to get it done over Notre Dame.
If there is one game that BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall has been waiting for, it's this one. And his Cougars, for that matter.
There is revenge to be had.
Two weeks ago it was Pittsburgh getting revenge on the Irish, who finished last regular season undefeated and in the BCS title game. Now Notre Dame comes in with a target on its back against BYU and also Stanford next week.
Last season's 17-14 loss to Notre Dame has haunted Provo, Utah, to be honest, so when the "Mormons invade the Catholics" today, don't be surprised if it seems to get personal. I'm counting on BYU quarterback Taysom Hill to lead the charge, as the Irish have struggled to contain dual-threat quarterbacks this season.
Hill ranks eighth in the nation in total offense at 333.5 yards a game, and is averaging 95.6 yards a game rushing. Hill might be the fastest and most athletic quarterback the Irish will face, and that includes Michigan's Devin Gardner. And that doesn't help the Irish's banged-up defensive line, which is struggling across the board.
Still this is more about revenge and pride, after Mendenhall still believes his Cougars should have won last season. Not to mention the fact they're 2-5 all-time against Notre Dame.
BYU has covered 14 of its last 20 against winning teams and 13 of its last 19 on the road, while the Irish have failed to cover 6 of 8 in November games and are mired in a 3-8 home slide versus the books. Take the Cougars in this one.
2♦ BYU
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is to take the Kentucky Wildcats plus the points as they play in Athens against the Georgia Bulldogs.
With just 2 straight up wins, Mark Stoops has had a rough first season as Kentucky head coach, but series numbers are in his favor today, and of course it will be quite interesting to see how the 6-4 Bulldogs respond a week after seeing a 4th and 18 "Hail Mary" do them in at Auburn. My guess is UGA will do just enough to get the win, but fail to cover this huge impost.
Georgia has failed to cover their last 4 between the hedges, and they have dropped 4 of the last 5 series meetings with Kentucky against the spread.
Kentucky has covered against Louisville, South Carolina and Miss State, no hesitation in taking the points today with the Wildcats against the downtrodden Bulldogs.
3♦ KENTUCKY
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the UNDER in the Michigan/Iowa Big 10 battle in Iowa City.
While Iowa has actually had a lot more overs than unders this year, it's only because Vegas constantly plagues them with ridiculously low numbers. But today, I think the number and the opponent is just right for the UNDER.
For starters, it's going to be ice cold with wind and the possibility of snow showers. Don't expect either passing game to even get close to 200 yards. Both teams will try their best to establish the ground game early and often, not wanting a shootout but rather an old fashioned Big 10 slugfest.
3 yards and a cloud of dust might have been a 1960s phrase, but it's relevant today.
Michigan's offense has apparently been figured out, and they aren't making any adjustments on the fly. After scoring 63 points in a shootout win vs. Indiana, the Wolverines have scored 6, 13, and 6-9 points in their last three games. I say 6-9 points for their last game vs. Northwestern because they were lucky to even get off the game-tying FG to tie the game at 9 and force overtime. I don't count the OT points they scored from the 25 yard line because my 11U little league team could do that.
I'm talking about regulation... in the last 12 quarters of regulation, the Wolverines have one TD. Pitiful.
I have no idea who's going to ultimately win this game, but it's going to be very low scoring with both teams just wanting to get back to the locker room. Play the under as your free release of the day.
3♦ MICHIGAN-IOWA UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Saturday's college football card is on the West coast, and playing a Pac 12 showdown in Pasadena, where I'll play the UCLA Bruins over the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Rose Bowl.
I know the Devils' defense has been playing exceptional of late, going back about four weeks, and I also see where they've crept up to No. 17 in the BCS standings after five straight wins. But this one is going to be trouble against an equally surging team Bruins team that has won three straight since back-to-back to losses against Stanford and Oregon.
I love what I've seen from UCLA's sophomore gunslinger Brett Hundley, as he's been very crafty in extending plays, turning the field vertical when he needs to and becoming the playmaker for coach Jim Mora, Jr.
I generally think you always have to look at home underdogs this time of the year, with college football rivalries, but this appears to be a supreme value play here and I want you to get it early before there is any line move.
UCLA's balance on both sides of the ball, not to mention the balance on offense between Hundley and freshman linebacker Myles Jack - who has stepped in to contribute with five touchdowns in two games - is the key for this team.
Love UCLA, and I wouldn't be surprised to see an outright win.
2♦ UCLA