Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Louisiana-Lafayette +13.5
Following a satisfying win over rival Arizona State, don't expect the Wildcats, who can't wait for this nightmare season to be over, to give the Ragin' Cajuns the attention they deserve.
Both of these teams played Oklahoma State early in the season. UL Lafayette lost to the Cowboys by 27 on the road in its opener. Arizona lost to the Cowboys by 23 on the road in its second game of the season. Since then, UL Fayette has continued to improve. The same can't be said for the Wildcats. Every time they have provided a glimmer of hope with a quality performance, they have quickly been knocked back down to earth.
The Arizona defense is terrible. It ranks 112th in the nation in total defense with 465.3 yards allowed per game. It ranks 107th nationally with 35.3 points allowed per game. UL Lafayette is a solid passing team, averaging 243.9 yards per game through the air (45th in the country). It should be able to find success through the airways today versus Arizona's 119th-ranked pass defense, which gives up 296.3 yards per game.
The Ragin' Cajuns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. We'll take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
NORTHWESTERN +6/+201 over Michigan State
12:00 PM EST. We’re going to split this up and play Northwestern on both the money line and point-spread. As more conferences have moved to a 12-team format over the years, we've seen more and more teams that have divisional titles already locked up failing as favorites during rivalry week while looking ahead to their league championship games. Both Clemson and Georgia Tech lost outright as favorites in 2009, and double-digit chalk Alabama had to come from behind that same year to nudge Auburn by five. Missouri went down to Kansas as a 16-point favorite in 2008; Central Florida couldn't cover a big number against lowly Memphis last year. And the most recent example was just this Tuesday night, when MAC East champ Ohio had to overcome a seven-point halftime deficit to beat Miami and couldn't get there as eight-point chalk. We can expect the trend to spread to the Big Ten and Pac-12 as well, and we should constantly question the upcoming performances of teams that clinch divisional championships before the last week of the season. Michigan State finds itself in that spot this week, and it's certainly uncharted territory for the Spartans. It would be a surprise to see the visitor play anything resembling its best game of the year against an ever-improving, senior-dominated Northwestern team that has blown halftime leads against Sparty the past two seasons and is now out to finish the job. The Wildcats have won seven straight home finales, six of them as underdogs. We'll call for them to make it eight. Play: #148 Northwestern +6 (Risking 1.09 units to win 1). Play: #148 Northwestern +201 (Risking 1 unit).
Penn St +14½ over WISCONSIN
3:30 PM EST. Wisconsin is a deserving favorite in this winner-take-all Leaders Division matchup, but the two-touchdown price is way too much to give a Penn State team that matches up really well. The Badgers boast a pair of all-conference linebackers, but as Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State and Illinois have demonstrated, this Wisconsin defense can be run on. Penn State may not light up the scoreboard, but the Lions tailbacks will move the chains and keep the visitor in striking distance. On the other side of the ball, it's strength-on-strength, as Penn State's stout rush defense will try to hold the line against Montee Ball and the Badgers' bruising running game. The Lions sport the best pair of defensive tackles in the Big Ten, and this will be the game in which Wisconsin really misses injured center Peter Konz. Wisconsin has overwhelmed its lesser foes this year, but against the three teams that matched up physically in the trenches, the Badgers have lost two games and managed an 11-point comeback win in the other. All were on the road, and playing in Camp Randall is a significant advantage, but two touchdowns is considerable weight in a title bout and the Badgers haven't demonstrated that they're capable of blowing away an equally physical opponent. Play: #177 Penn State +14½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Texas Tech +13½ over BAYLOR
7:00 PM EST. Baylor is coming off one of the biggest wins in school history and is now laying double digits to a team with a losing record that it hasn't beaten in 15 years. It's really difficult to foresee the Bears showing up at the Jerrydome in Arlington, Tex. prepared to give a championship effort. This is not a very good Texas Tech edition, but the Raiders have outstanding senior leadership, are in a must-win spot to get to the postseason, and boast enough offensive weapons to trade scores with Baylor even if the defense can't stop RG3 & Co. at all. That may or may not be enough to keep the streak intact, but it should be plenty to get the Raiders under this bloated number. Don’t be surprised to see Tech win this one outright. Play: #179 Texas Tech +13½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Nevada +1.5 over UTAH STATE: Last week Nevada had a good lead on La Tech, but couldn't hold it and the loss snapped a 5 game winning streak, in which the Wolfpack averaged 44.2 ppg and outscored their opponents by an average of 22.8 ppg. Nevada has also owne this series, winning by an average of 15.8 ppg. Granted the last 3 played here have been won by 6 points or less, but all 3 were by Nevada and they are the dog in this one. The Wolfpack can score some points and they will be facing a Utah State defense that has struggled recently, allowing 35.3 ppg and 417 ypg in their last 3 games, while on the year they have allowed 30.1 ppg, which is 85th. Nevada has had defensive problems this year as well, but they do pretty well vs the run, allowing just 148 ypg and that's all that Utah State has as they are 6th in the nation in rushing at 276 ypg. The Aggie offense is really one dimensional, but the Wolfpack offense isn't as they are 36th in passing (257.6 ypg) and 9th in rushing (261 ypg), so the Aggies will not be able to gear up on just 1 thing. The Wolfpack has the better offense and they are slightly better on defense and they should get back on the winning track here. KEY TRENDS-- The Wolfpack are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a dog, while the Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 following a SU win.
4 UNIT PLAY
NC STATE -11.5 over Maryland: Starting the year with a win over the Canes, Marlyand has gone 1-9 overall and 0-8 vs FBS foes. OUCH!!! And not only have they lost their last 9 by FBS teams, but they have been outscored by 16.1 ppg in the process. The defense for this team has been a major problem as they are 109th overall (458.8 ypg), 115th vs the run (227.6 ypg) and 97th in points allowed (32.3 ppg). The NC State offense hasn't looked great of late, but in the last 4 weeks they faced FSU, Virginia and BC, which all have good or excellent defenses, but when facing a bad defense lijke they did vs Clemson last week they were able to put up 398 yards and 37 points vs them. Marylands has put up just 21.5 ppg on the year (101st) and just 15.8 ppg on the road. Maryland has been outscored by 21 ppg in theoir last 3 games, by 11 ppg in ACC play and by 18.7 ppg on the road, while NC State has outscored their opponents by 14.2 ppg at home. Maryland is on an 0-6 ATS run and they are 3-12 ATS aftrer allowing 280+ yards passing, while the Wolfpack are 19-9-2 in their last 30 games following an ATS win. Look for State to win this one by 17+.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NORTHWESTERN +6 Over Michigan State: The Spartan's are clearly oin a letdown spot after clinching a spot in the Big 10 Title game last week. Even if they weren't on letdown mode we note that this is a team that has struggled on the road this year, with bad losses at ND and Nebraska and just a 3 point win at Ohio State and on the road this year they have put up just 15.8 ppg and 327 ppg. Northwestern was without QB dan Persa for the early part of the year, but this team has figured out things of late as they have won 4 in a row, including a stunning win in Nebraska a few weeks ago. The Northwestern offense has been doing what they were expected to do all year and that's putting up points, as they have averaged 32.6 ppg since Dan's return, compared to the 19 ppg they put in their 2 games vs Div 1 foes before his return. Michigan State really has nothing to play for in this one and they would like to get out of this one healthy, while Northwestern would like to improve what bowl they may go to with a big win vs Sparty here. I'll call for the outright upset.
Wyoming +33 over BOISE STATE: Wyoming is 7-3 on the year and that's better than SDSU and Boise only beat them by 18. Wyoming has road wins vs SDSU and Air force and an 11 point home loss to TCU, which Boise lost to at home. Plus we also note that Boise has not won by more than 33 in the last 4 weeks and that includes the 11 point HOME win vs Air Force and just a 17 point road win at a BAD UNLV team. Now I ask you... Why in the hell is Wyomoning a 33 point dog here. The Cowboy offense has been pretty good this year as they have averaged 28.8 ppg and 417 ypg on the year and they should have some good success today vs a Boise State team that has had some defensive woes of late as they have allowed 29.5 ppg and 425 ypg in their last 4 games, and those numbers are 9 ppg and 80 ypg worse than their season to date average. This defense has been bad of late and Wyoming can capitalize. The Wyoming defense has not been great, but they are a solid 32nd vs the pass and they limit some of the big easy plays by Boise here. This game is for 2nd place in the WAC and while i don't feel that Wyoming has a shot in hell at winning this one outright, they have shown this year that they are more than capable of keeping it close.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Alabam -21 over AUBURN: Style points. Les Miles said they weren't trying for any yesterday vs Arkansas, but you could clearly see they were and that's what Alabama will do in this one. I still stand by my statement in in yesterday's thread about how shitty the Alabam and LSU QB's are, but as LSU showed they don't need great QB, as their defense and special teams continues to set up or bale out the offense by proving them short fields. The Bama Offense has been pretty good this year as they are 32nd overall, 14th in rushing and 19th in scoring. That ground game will get toi face the 93rd ranked rushing defense (193.1 ypg) and that will certainly open up a few throwing lanes for McCarron, but it will wear down this thin Auburn defense in the second half and that will set up for some easy late style point scores by Bama. The Tide's defense has allowed more than 14 points just once this year and that was last week vs FCS foe Georgia Southern. They are a bit embarrassed after that performance and you can almost sence a shutout here. The last 2 years this game has been close, but not this year. Alabama needs to win big and they will do it with ease.
Texas Tech +13 over BAYLOR: Last year the Red Raiders were just 1 points favs after being DD faves the previous 10 years and now the pendulum has really swung the other way as Baylor is a DD fave. Texas tech is 12-3 ATS the last 15 in the series and they have outgained the Bears in all 15. The Rad Raiders have not played well in the last 4 weeks, but Baylor is on letdown alert after their big win over Oklahoma last week and they have Texas on deck, while this is the Red Raiders season finale. I say they can keep it close here.
1 UNIT PLAY
OKLAHOMA -28.5 over Iowa State: This is a double whammy as the sooners are angry after being beaten by Baylor last week, while ISU is off a HUGE, I say a HUGE win over Oklahoma State and they may still be partying when this on kicks off. I look for Oklahoma to roll in fron of the home crowd.
John Ryan
Notre Dame vs. Stanford
Play: Notre Dame +7½
5* graded play on Notre Dame as they take on Stanford set to start at 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Notre Dame will lose this game by six or fewer points. I also like a combination bet wagering 3* unit with the points and a 2* wager using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 32-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2005. Play on a road team off 1 or more consecutive 'unders', in a game involving two good defensive teams allowing 16-21 points per game and after 7 or more regular seasons games have been played. Of the 68 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 33 of them or 47%, have covered the spread by seven or more points. Stanford will be thin at TE for this game with Levine Toilolo listed as questionable with a significant should injury and Zack Ertz listed as doubtful with a knee injury. Quarterback Luck has used the tight end significantly in this offensive scheme. Luck has completed 250 passes with eight players having caught 10 or more this season. Ertz and Toilolo have EACH caught 22 passes on the season. The success of the Cardinal offense is spreading the ball to different receivers and without a proven TE to go to allows the Notre Dame defensive scheme to be far more aggressive adding more zone and gap blitz plays to their game plan. Further supporting this graded play are game situations noting that Notre Dame head coach Kelly is a solid 13-3 ATS when playing against a top-level team winning 75% or more of their games in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Notre Dame.
Jack Clayton
San Diego State at UNLV
San Diego State (6-4 SU, 3-6 ATS). He has served the past two years as the defensive coordinator. This is a strong, balanced offense behind senior QB Ryan Lindley (18 TDs, 7 INTs), along with sophomore running back Ronnie Hillman, and sophomore tight end Gavin Escobar. The Rebels are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games overall. The Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play SDSU!
Bob Balfe
Northwestern +6 over Michigan State
These two teams have gotten together for great games over the last few years and I think we will have another great close game. Both teams have great offenses, but I think the Wildcats actually have the better offensive line and defensive line. Its going to be a windy day which means anything can happen. I like Northwestern at home and think they have a great shot of winning this game outright. Does Michigan State want to get anybody injured for the BIG 10 Championship Game? They could lose this game by 100. They are still going to play in the title game next week. Take Northwestern who is trying to get a better bowl game.
Phil Steele
Alabama -21 over AUBURN
The winner of the Iron Bowl has gone on to win the last 2 National Championships and Bama WILL make it 3 straight. I picked the Tide to win it all in Phil Steele’s College Football Preview and despite their loss to LSU they are clearly the best and most talented team this year. Last season Alabama led 24-0 at halftime and allowed Cam Newton to lead the comeback ensuring that the Tide defense will have one goal in mind and that is a shutout. Auburn has struggled against the other 2 elite defenses losing by an average score of 45-9 gaining just 248 yards vs LSU and 195 vs Georgia. The going gets even tougher here, Roll Tide!
Virginia Tech -5 over VIRGINIA
Virginia Tech has dominated the football scene in the Old Dominion winning the last 7 by over 20 point per game. Many of those wins were meaningless because VT had the ACC Title game appearance wrapped up, but this year it’s winner take all. The Hokies and soon to be Hall of Fame head coach Frank Beamer are used to “big games,” and have taken part in 3 ACC title games and 3 BCS games in the last 4 seasons.
Jack Jones
San Jose State +7
San Jose State should not be catching a touchdown against Fresno State Saturday. Neither of these teams are going to bowl games, so it will be hard to see Fresno State getting motivated to play this one.
San Jose State is certainly better than their record. Despite being 4-7 SU, this team is 7-4 ATS and they have been undervalued all year. Getting them as a touchdown underdog is an absolute gift Saturday.
Fresno State has one of the worst defenses in college football. The Bulldogs are giving up 35.9 points/game and 431.1 total yards/game. It's asking them a lot to cover their spread considering they can't stop anyone.
The Spartans are 23-9 ATS vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game since 1992. San Jose State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Bulldogs are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite, including 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Bet San Jose State Saturday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Mississippi State -17
Bottom Line: With a chance to become bowl eligible, look for the Bulldogs to take care of business in a big way on senior day. Since playing Arkansas tough on Oct. 22, the Rebels have packed it in with 4 straight losses of 17 points or more. As a result, they failed to cover the number in each of these 4 games. Ole Miss even lost by 17 to lowly Kentucky, a team the Bulldogs handled by double digits. The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue here.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Maryland +12
This is a letdown spot for NC State following its big win over Clemson. Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MARYLAND) after 5 or more consecutive straight up losses, in weeks 10 through 13, are 35-13 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 10.1 points. Take the Terps.
Tony Karpinski
Rutgers vs. Connecticut
Play: Rutgers -3½
Mohamed Sanu has been playing very well, putting up 30 catches over last 3 games for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers can control the pace of the game and can attack through the air with Sanu as the main target; leading them with 100 receptions on the season and 7 TDs. Connecticut has problems against the passing game, where they give up 272 in the air, including 4 games of 270 or more, including three 400+ yard games. UConn also has turnover problems. Rutgers is sizzling, they win with ease on an early kickoff Saturday.
Michael Alexander
Clemson vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -3½
CLEMSON is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game
S. CAROLINA is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
CLEMSON is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh -½ +131 over MONTREAL
We’ll gladly take our chances laying a half puck on the road against a Habs club that is not only weak defensively but is also offensively challenged. More importantly is Sidney Crosby’s return to Hockey Night in Canada and with the Maple Leafs off tonight, the whole country will be tuning into this one. What we’re going to get is two jacked up teams in an insane atmosphere at the Bell Center. The difference is that the Penguins are an elite team that is a huge threat to win the Cup while the Canadiens are going to have to scratch, claw and get very fortunate to even make the playoffs. The Habs defense pairings of Josh Gorges and P.K. Subban, Hal Gill and Yannick Weber and Raphael Diaz and Alexei Emelin might be the NHL’s worst and if not for the amazing goaltending of Carey Price, Montreal would be nowhere near the .500 mark. Habs only shot here is Carey Price standing on his head but even Chris Angel would have a hard time making this illusion work. Play: Pittsburgh -½ +131 (Risking 2 units).
David Chan
Edmonton Oilers @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Colorado Avalanche
The 12-8-2 Edmonton Oilers storm into Colorado to take on the 9-12-1 Avalanche.
Devan Dubnyk starts the second game of the back to back for the Oilers in net; he'll be opposed by Semyon Varlamov for the Avs.
Colorado plays with "revenge" here after Edmonton beat it 3-1 back on October 28th.
Last night the Oilers beat Minnesota 5-2.
This sets up perfectly as a "letdown" spot for the Oilers; this second game of the back to back represents their final game of a four game road trip.
And now they face a very determined home side, that's been struggling and underachieving of late:
“It’s hard to win hockey games when you don’t score a goal, and right now we’re in a little bit of a funk here at home,” coach Joe Sacco said. “We’re not scoring for whatever reason and certainly at times like this you need production from your best players, and we’re not getting it from them right now.”
A horrible spot for the visitors; in my humble opinion, this is the very definition of "good line value"; all signs point to a comfortable home victory!
Tony George
Tennessee -7.5
Love Vols to roll today over a very week Kentucky team, especially on defense. Tennessee needs this win for bowl contention, and with QB Bray back from injury and now his starting RB back, I look for them to get a 14 point win here today. Last week a 4th string RB put up over a 110 yards on Kentucky's defense. Well, at least the Wildcats have a basketball team that can win, and KU's offense is absolutely deplorable and will struggle to trade punches on the scoreboard with Tennessee who is healthy for once at skill positions. A Must win for Tennessee.