Matt Fargo
Mississippi @ Mississippi St.
PICK: Mississippi +17
It is rivalry week and Matt is ready for another COLOSSAL CFB Saturday! He had a MONSTER CFB Saturday Week 12 as went a SWEET 5-2 ATS (71.4%) which came after three straight Saturdays were he went a SIZZLING 18-5-1 ATS (78.3%)! There is more of that in store this Saturday as he is releasing a HUGE TV Winner on ABC! Win again! Sit back, relax and watch it roll in!
We can throw out the records in this game as big rivalries tend to bring out the best of even the bad teams. Mississippi is the only winless team in the SEC at 0-7 and going back further it has dropped 13 straight conference games. The downward spiral led to the dismissal of head coach Houston Nutt who will be coaching his last game for the Rebels. I expect the Rebel players to go all out here and not only be playing for their coach but also a chance to play spoiler against their hated rival.
Mississippi St. is 5-6 and can become bowl eligible with a victory here. It is a sad state when a team could finish 2-6 in its own conference and still make the postseason which will be the case for the Bulldogs should they win here. Their only conference win so far came against Kentucky which also has a similar 1-6 conference record and while today's foe is equally as bad, this line is out of control. The Bulldogs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites of 10.5 or more points.
Mississippi falls into a great contrarian situation here as well. Play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after five or more consecutive straight up losses, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 35-13 ATS (72.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Look for the Rebels to try and salvage a little bit of their season here and give the Bulldogs all they can handle.
JR O'Donnell
St. Joseph's -5.5
Today's afternoon start has the St Joseph Hawks hosting the Penn State Nittany Lions in a home court where the Hawks have been very tough to beat, winning almost 75% over the 16 years since Phil Martelli has been coach. PSU returns just one starter from last year's NCAA team, and there was a reason that suddenly in the off season former Head Coach Ed DeChellis left PSU for a step down to Navy. True the Lions are 5-1, but it has been fashioned against the likes of Hartford, Radford, LIU and Youngstown State, not powers by any stretch, and "4" of the "5" wins have been on the home court. They have two achilles heels, one they score only 65.7 points per game, and two they shoot 39% (almost last in nation) from the field. Shooting will be tougher tonight. Hawks are 3-2, with quality wins over Georgia Tech and Tulsa, and losses to Seton Hall and a good Iona team in double OT. They score 77.1 ppg and shoot 50+% from the field.
Hollywood Sports
North Carolina at UNLV
Play: North Carolina
While UNLV (6-0) will likely enjoy the home crowd advantage for this Las Vegas Invitational matchup, the game will be played in the Orleans Arena rather than the Thomas & Mack Center where the Runnin' Rebels set up shop. This will clearly be the biggest test for UNLV this season after earning wins against Nevada and then a rebuilding USC team in their last contest by a 66-55 score. North Carolina (5-0) has already proved their mettle by defeating Michigan State in their opening game. The Tar Heels return their top-eight players from their 29-win team that advanced to Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. They come off an 87-62 win over South Carolina yesterday -- and they have covered 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Tar Heels have also covered 11 of their last 15 games as a favorite in the 7-12.5 point range. With their top shelf front line of Harrison Barnes along with 7'0" Tyler Zeller and 6'11" John Henson, North Carolina should overwhelm the Runnin' Rebels. Lay the point with the Tar Heels.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Wyoming/ MD Eastern Shore Under 126: Neither of these teams get up an down the courtas Wyoming is 330th in the nation in shots per game (48.4), while MDES is 228th at 53 spg. MDES comes in averageing just 52.8 ppg on 34.4% shooting and they have hit just 61.1% of their FT's. Pathetic. Now they face a Wyoming team that plays great defense as they have allowed just 53.8 ppg on 37.95 shooting, including just 26.3% from downtown. The Wyoming offense hasn't been great as they have averaged just 62.8 ppg, but they have shot well (45.3%), but that's mosly two-pointers as they have hit just 29% from long range. MDES has give up over 74 ppg, but with the style of offense that Whyoming employs I don't see them getting that many points. MDES really has no chance of scoring enoough points for this game to go over. I look for a game around 110.
4 UNIT PLAY
Boise State -21 over Northern Illinois: Boise is in a new conerence (MWC) and they have 9 newcommers on their team, so that could make for some growing pains, but i'm not seeing it yet as they have a 42 point win over CS Northridge and a 21 point win over Utah on their resume so far. NIU has had a couple of close home losses, but in their two road games vs Iowa and purdue they were crushed by 47.5 ppg. NIU is a team that will struggle all yearas 8 freshmen and 4 new starters dot their roster. This is very young team that will not break a string of 5 seasons of 20+ losses this year. NIU has not played well away from home and they will not play well here either.
3 UNIT PLAYS
St Joes/ Penn State Over 130: Penn State doen't like the up tempo game, and they have't shot well (39.7%), but they do score a decent 65 ppg and they will be facing a St Joes team that doesn't play defense well. The Hawks have allowed just 40.5 shooting, but 74.3 ppg and they are 336th in the country in shots per game allowed (65.2). Teams are getting 13 more shots per game than the Hawks but yet they are scoring 77.2 ppg, and thay may be due to their 45.6% shooting from beyond the Arc. Oh and they also hit 78.8% from the charity stripe. Penn State has played good defense but they haven't defended the 3-pt line all that well as they have allowed 38.1% from downtown. St Joes efficient offense should be able to put up points vs a decent PSU defense, while the Lions will get their fair share vs a St Joes team that gives up alot.
Montana State/ Idaho Under 136: Montana State can get up an down the court and they have put in 71.7 ppg, while they have allowed 75.7 ppg, but the team on the other side does not play that way as Idaho has scored just 56.5 ppg, while their dfeense has done well, allowing just 63 ppg on 37.6 shooting. Neither team shoots the ball well as both are 41.2% or worse and both teams are also at 63% or worse from the FT line. Plus let's also not that the OU is 1-5 in Montan State's last 6 vs the WAC, while the OU is 1-9 in Idaho's last 10 vs the Big Sky. I really don't expect more than 125 in this one especially when one team can't score and that same team plays excellnt defense.
North Carolina/ UNLV Over 154.5: This is the rubber match for me as I've had the over in the first 2 games of this tourney and it split. The Heels come in averaging 89.6 ppg and they are shooting 51.7% overall, including 41.2% from beyond the Arc.Carolina is not a team that likes to walk the ball up the court and they will run anytime they get a chance. That's quite alright with UNLV, as the Rebels like to run also as they come in having put 79.8 ppg on the board, with 48.3% shooting. UNLV has played great defense this year, holding teams to juust 59.8 ppg on 38.7% shooting, but the 2 times they faced up and down teams (Canisius & Nevada) they allowed 67 and 70 points. Carolina doesn't allow good shooting (37.7%) but they do allow over 67 ppg so they can be scored on some. This game will be a track meet with both teams running up and down the court and that has mee seeing at least 160 in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Harvard -3.5 over UCF: I would not be shocked if I saw Harvard in the Top 25 after this tourney, provided they win it. I feel they will as I don't expect the Knights to be fully ready to play this one ofter thier HUGE comeback win over UConn. Provided that Harvard stays healthy it will be fun to see how far this team will go in March. Yes they are that good.
North Carolina -7 over UNLV: The Heels have won each of their last 4 games by 16+ points and they have really been playing like the number 1 team in the land. UNLV is 6-0 on the year and they can get up and down the court, but I don't expect them to stop Carolina enough to stay within the numer.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Cal Poly SLO -5 over Miss Valley State: CPS already has road win over USC and a 27 point home win over San Jose State on their resume. This team plays excellent defense (55.5 ppg) while State allows 81.2 ppg. CPS easily.
Northern Iowa -4 over Providence: The Panthers are a young team, but they had extra prep time with a trip to brazil over the summer and they are playing well right now. Providence will not make any noise in the Big East this year and with very little depth they will have a problem staying in this one.