Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 27,2010

Hollywood Sports

UNLV at San Diego St.
Play: San Diego St.

San Diego State (7-4) blew a 27-10 2nd quarter lead against Utah to lose to the Utes by a 38-34 score last week. The Aztecs should take out their frustrations against a hapless UNLV team (2-9) that is 119th in the FBS in total offense (276 YPG) and 95th in total defense (423.8 YPG). On the road, the Runnin' Rebels are scoring only 8.8 PPG while being outscored by 34.2 PPG. QB Ryan Lindley leads an offense that averages 293.2 passing YPG. On their home field, the Aztecs are gaining 479.4 YPG while scoring 34.6 PPG and outscoring their opponents by 16.8 PPG. The Aztecs have covered 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. UNLV currently has nine players listed as questionable for this contest and looked primed to be overwhelmed by a bowl-eligible Aztecs' team. Lay the points with San Diego State.

Marc Lawrence

Michigan St. at Penn State
Prediction: Penn State

Thanks to a 15-point fourth quarter rally last week against Purdue, the Spartans kept their hopes alive for the Big Ten title. A win this afternoon in Happy Valley guarantees Michigan State at least a tie atop the standings but they’ll need a little help if they want to ‘Run for the Roses’. The Spartans must have Ohio State lose to Michigan so they can win the heads-up tiebreaker with Wisconsin (beat Wisky 34-24). Since they didn’t play the Buckeyes, a three-way tie would send the highest-ranked BCS team to the Rose Bowl and that wouldn’t be the Spartans since they trail both in the current standings. We mentioned earlier in the year that the Spartans were the charmed ones this season but that may change as they appear to be catching the Lions at the wrong time and the wrong place. Since the switch to Matthew McGloin at QB, the Joe Pa’s have won four of five and are averaging over 33 PPG. The Lions are also 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in Last Home Games off a SU win of 17 or more points while the Spartans are 2-7 ATS in Last Road Games. Mark Dantonio’s bunch has never fared well after Purdue (1-8 ATS) and are 1-4 ATS with conference revenge. Series history is also tilted heavily in the Nittany Lions’ favor in that the Spartans have NEVER won (0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS) in Beaver Stadium since PSU joined the Big 10 Conference. Now the linesmaker is asking them to lay points in a venue they’ve never won against a team that is 6-2 ATS as home dogs? No thanks. We’ll grab the points. We recommend a 1-unit play on Penn State.

Michael Alexander

South Carolina vs. Clemson
Play: Under 45

Clemson hosts the S. Carolina in a SEC contest hoping that they can put the ball in the endzone. Clemson has really struggled scoring as they put up only 35 points versus North Texas. Weaker teams in the Sun Belt Conference have scored more points against North Texas. If they can't score versus a Sun Belt defense chances are they'll struggle versus an SEC defense. Fortunately for Clemson they also have a defense of their own that held Auburn to 24 points in regulationn while Auburn has averaged 41 points per game.

This game doesn't mean a whole lot to the South Carolina Gamecoks as they will be playing in the SEC Championship Game next week. As a result they will play this one pretty close to the vest to make sure that everyone is healthy for the Championship game against Auburn. So, expect the Gamecocks to play ball control football and keep in on the ground.

All that spells a game that is going to struggle getting the point total higher than 45.

Tony George

Cincinnati U vs. Connecticut
Play: Connecticut -1.5

It looks like a set up line, but U Conn at home laying less than a field goal in my humble opinion is a gift against a Cincy team in poor form and 2-6 ATS their last 8 games. U Conn has had a disappointing season, but with their Seventh win here could grab a decent mid bowl game. 3 Impressive wins against Pitt, West Virginia and on the road at Syracuse where the Huskies dominated a decent Cuse team has me all over them. Because the Bearcats lit of Rutgers, who is a bad team last week for over 60 points has this line lower than expected, but it is the Huskies on the rise and off 3 straight wins where they are playing now to their potential. U Conns defense allowing 15 ppg their last 3 games, Cincy allowing over 30, enough said.

Wunderdog

LSU vs. Arkansas
Play: Arkansas -3.5

The Tigers are 10-1 and currently reside in 5th place in the latest BCS Poll. The defense has carried them this season b
The Tigers are 10-1 and currently reside in 5th place in the latest BCS Poll. The defense has carried them this season but in their big games, the defense has cracked, allowing 29 to Florida, 24 to Auburn and 21 to Alabama not to mention 36 last week to Mississippi. The offense is average, so facing a high octane Arkansas offense led by Ryan Mallett, on the road, is a big chore. The Hogs are almost impossible to stop at home on the offensive end as over the last two years spanning 11 games at home, they are averaging 45 ppg. The Razorbacks are a sharp 12-2 ATS in their last 14 after a win, while LSU is 1-5-1 ATS after piling up 40+ in their last game. They are also 11-21 ATS under Les Miles when coming off a home win. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. Arkansas. Meanwhile, Arkansas is 11-3 ATS since last sesaon vs. winning opponents. I like the home team to win and cover this one.

Jim Feist

UNLV at San Diego St
Play: Over 59.5

The weather looks good in San Diego, which will help these offenses. UNLV (2-9 SU/4-6 ATS) has a decent passing game behind senior QB Omar Clayton (10 TDs, 5 INTs), but the defense is terrible allowing 35 points per game. The Rebels are riding a 1-6 SU/3-4 ATS run giving up 44, 49, 43, 48, 16 and 35 points. They had an embarrassing 43-10 loss at a bad Colorado State team. Injuries have been a major reason the Rebels have struggled. San Diego State is playing well under second-year Coach Brady Hoke with a potent, balanced attack averaging 260 yards in the air and 31 points behind Junior QB Ryan Lindley (22 TDs, 15 INTs). Look for more offense than odsmakers expect, Play UNLV/San Diego State Over the total.

Tom Stryker

Indiana @ Purdue
PICK: Indiana +3

Indiana has lost 12 consecutive conference games. Just two weeks ago, the Hoosiers program was the joke of college football when they allowed Wisconsin to post 83 points on them in Madison. The Big Red defense is one of the worst in the nation allowing a whopping 34.3 points and 419 total yards per game. All of those facts are noted. However, this could very well be the last game for IU head coach Bill Lynch and his players will fight tooth-and-nail to win the Oaken Bucket for him.

Purdue played well in the first half at Michigan State last Saturday and gave the Spartans a run for their money. Off that heart-breaking loss, the injury-plagued Boilermakers will be asked to get up emotionally one more time for a game against their biggest rival. Call me crazy, but I think the Hoosiers are going to want this victory just a little more.

One thing that Indiana’s Swiss cheese defense has going for it in this game is the fact that Purdue’s offense is one of the worst in the land. Statistically speaking, the Boilers average a weak 18.6 points and 312 total yards per game. PU has some success running the football but their passing attack is next-to-nothing. The Boilermakers are averaging just 4.8 yards per pass. That number is one the Hoosiers can handle.

It is noted that Purdue is a stunning 23-0 SU and 15-5 ATS in its last 23 at home matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage less than .500. However, there is a strong late-season system that works against the Boilermakers and this technical gem demands our respect. Since 1980, college home favorites battling in their season finale are a pitiful 11-26 ATS provided they check in off back-to-back ATS dog wins. The Boilers hit pointspread paydirt against Michigan and Michigan State and they apply to this negative situation.

Coach Lynch may not produce wins but he is a player favorite. Watch the Big Red step up and give their leader something to remember. Take Indiana.

Larry Ness

Kentucky @ Tennessee
PICK: Tennessee -2.5

The Vols have fought back with three straight wins (now 5-6) and have a chance to become bowl-eligible with a home win over Kentucky. Freshman QB Tyler Bray has led Tennessee to wins of 50-14 at Memphis, 52-15 at home vs Ole Miss and 24-10 at Vandy. He's thrown 10 TDs with just two INTs and has averaged 293.3 YPG through the air. Junior RB Poole has added nice balance during the team's winning streak, averaging 102.3 YPG rushing while scoring four times. He's now got 935 yards on the year, after gaining just 171 yards in his first two season in Knoxville. The Tennessee 'D' has also done its part, allowing just 12.7 PPG during the three-game winning streak on a modest 312.0 YPG. The Wildcats are 6-5 and coming off a bye and will surely test that 'D' with QB Hartline (65.7%, 22 TDs and just 8 INTs), RB Locke (719 YR / 5.5 YPC / 9 TDs), the do-everything Cobb (376 YR / 8.0 YPC / 5 TDs plus 66 catches for 7 TDs) plus WR Matthews (51 catches / 9 TDs). However, the Vols have won 27 consecutive regular season finales plus own 25 straight wins over Kentucky, the nation's longest active winning streak of one school over another. Take the home team.

Teddy Covers

Louisiana Tech @ San Jose St.
PICK: Louisiana Tech -11.5

San Jose State has fought the good fight, but as their dreadful 41-7 loss at Hawaii last week showed, this team has simply run out of healthy bodies to compete. We’ve already seen the 1-10 Spartans lose on this field to the likes of FCS UC Davis and 4-7 Utah State – their home field edge is virtually non-existent. And, after facing the likes of Alabama, Wisconsin, Utah, Boise, Nevada and Fresno in their first eight games, a team with limited quality athletes has been positively decimated with injuries, leaving them in miserable position for their last two games. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech has improved by leaps and bounds since September. They won their last road game by three touchdowns, against a New Mexico State team that beat San Jose earlier in the year. The Bulldogs still have a chance for bowl eligibility with a win here, and they are fresh, rested and ready off of last week’s bye! 2* Take Louisiana Tech

Bob Wingerter

South Carolina vs. Clemson
Play: Under 45

Clemson scored only 35 points against North Texas. Teams in the Sun Belt Conference have scored more points against North Texas. Is this Clemson offense going to score big against an SEC defense? We want to say, “No way, Jose.” On the other hand, this Clemson defense held Auburn to 24 points in regulation, and Auburn has averaged 41 points per game this season.

For the season, Clemson opponents have scored 11 points per game less than their average. As South Carolina comes in eyeing the SEC Championship Game in a week, will they be looking to throw the ball over the field, maybe get their quarterback sacked and injured in a game with 75 offensive plays? Nope. They’ll be happy to snap it late in the play-clock, run the B game plan with as few snaps as possible for both offensive and defensive units, and take their chances with their talent against Clemson’s talent in a field position battle. TAKE THE UNDER

Jack Jones

TCU -43

The TCU Horned Frogs get the call here in what is their final regular season game, thus their last chance to impress voters. TCU is 11-0 this season and is not only playing to make a BCS Bowl, but possible a National Championship berth if the chips fall in place. They won't call off the dogs Saturday against New Mexico, which is why I feel they will have no problem covering this massive spread. The Lobos rank as one of the worst teams in the land, sitting at 1-10 this season thanks to an offense that ranks 114th (279 YPG) and a defense that ranks 116th (497 YPG) out of 120 FBS teams. TCU ranks No. 1 against the pass (135 YPG) and No. 1 in total defense (223 YPG).

New Mexico lost to TCU 51-40 last season, and this 2010 edition of the Horned Frogs is better than they were a year ago. The Lobos have faced a pair of BCS contenders this season, losing to Oregon 72-0 and to Utah 56-14. That was the same Utah team that TCU throttled 47-7 a few weeks back. TCU is outscoring opponents 41.3 PPG to 10.9 PPG this season or an average of 30.4 PPG. New Mexico is clearly the worst team they have faced all season, which is why covering 43 points when they win by nearly that much on average anyway shouldn't be a problem. The Lobos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. TCU holds nothing back Saturday coming off a bye and looking to put one lasting impression on the polls. Bet the Horned Frogs Saturday.

Chip Chirimbes

TCU vs. New Mexico
Play: TCU -43

I can't help but remember poor Big Jim, my New Mexico alumni friend sitting at the bar in Las Vegas watching Oregon destroy the hapless Lobos the opening week of the season 72-0 and the Ducks actually called of the dogs after taking a 58-0 lead a half time. New Mexico (1-10) did manage a win at home as a 9-point dog over Wyoming but, I doubt that will put any points on the board here. The Horned Frogs have one the the best stop units in the nation and they will look to impress the polls by out-doing Oregon. Take TCU!

Tom Freese

LSU at Arkansas
Play: Arkansas

LSU is 10-1 straight up this year. The Tigers are 3-11 ATS their last 14 November games and they are 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last game. Lsu is 2-5 ATS their last 7 games off a straight up win. Arkansas is 9-2 straight this year. The Razorbacks are 12-2 ATS their last 14 games off a straight up win and they are 6-0 ATS their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS their last 5 games overall.

Frank Jordan

Michigan State vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State +1.5

Michigan State is number 10 in the country and has a shot with a win and a little help to be the Big 10 representative in the Rose Bowl. Penn State is 7-4 and looking to finish strong to get into a decent bowl game. Michigan Sate bounced back nicely since their only loss which was to Iowa by 31 points with back to back games scoring over 30 points in each. Penn State is 6-1 at home and coming a huge win over Indiana 41-24. Despite being 0-3 in their first three games against ranked teams this season look for Penn State to have a super game and knock Michigan State down a peg as they protect home field. Play Penn State