Matt Fargo
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Tennessee vs. Kentucky
Play: Tennessee -3
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Kentucky is coming off a win last weekend against Georgia in a game it had no business winning. The Wildcats were outgained by 227 total yards but were fortunate that the Bulldogs gave it up four times in the second half and that has been the problem for them all season and Kentucky was able to take advantage. The Wildcats improved to 7-4 with that victory but I am not sold on them when playing a good team like Tennessee. Five of their wins have come against teams that are not going to the postseason including one FCS team. A team that is three games over .500 on the season should not have a negative yardage differential but that is the case for Kentucky as it is -13.4 ypg on the year and that may seem insignificant but that is not a good sign for a supposed bowl team. Tennessee has had its ups and downs this season but it will avoid a second straight losing season and missed bowl game. This team could be peaking at the right time led by a surging quarterback and another solid defense. Take away that game against Mississippi, which was actually close late in the third quarter before a 21-0 Rebels run ended it, and the other games have been close as three of other losses were by a total of 10 points as well as a 10-point loss to top ranked Florida. A few breaks the other way and the Volunteers could be looking at a big bowl game although a win here likely puts Tennessee in the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day. Kentucky has accomplished two big things this season and that is winning at Auburn for the first time since 1961 and at Georgia for the first time since 1977. Now it will be trying to beat Tennessee for the first time since 1984 and I am saying that the third time is not a charm. In the games against Auburn and Georgia, the Wildcats had the luxury of going against scoring defenses ranked 78th and 76th while Tennessee is ranked 28th. The Volunteers are allowing only 20.7 ppg and 313.2 ypg which is raked 20th in the nation. The Wildcats are only 87th in total offense and even though the running game is solid, there is no balance and that is what it takes to beat Tennessee. The Volunteers have been led by quarterback Jonathan Crompton who started extremely slow but has picked it up of late. Through the first three games he had five touchdowns and seven interceptions but since then he has tossed 20 touchdowns and only four picks which is definitely one of the best turnarounds in the nation. Tennessee is 11th in the country in sacks allowed while Kentucky is 98th in sacks gained so Crompton will not be seeing much pressure. The offense has scored 31 or more points in five of the last eight games with Tennessee winning all of those contests. Kentucky is an average 54th in total defense and it is 0-4 this season in games that it has allowed 28 or more points so that is obviously the magic number for us here. Tennessee is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games as a road favorite smaller than a touchdown while Kentucky is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog of a field goal or less. The road team has covered four of the last five meetings and Tennessee is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 in the series. Play Tennessee Volunteers
John Ryan
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Arizona U vs. Arizona State
Play: Arizona State +3
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Arizona State as they host Arizona set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that ASU will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has 54% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 42-14 ATS for 75% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites and are good offensive teams scoring 28-34 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG and after 7+ game and after scoring 37 points or more last game. AiS projects an 85% probability that ASU will gain between 5 a 5.5 total yards per play. Note that ASU is a solid 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play since 1992. Arizona has struggled against weaker teams over the years. Note that they are 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) when playing against a team posting a win percentage of 25% to 40% since 1992. Arizona is coming off a highly emotional loss to Oregon in OT losing 44-41. Note that Arizona is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. Take ASU.
Bob Wingerter
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Wake Forest vs. Duke
Play: Wake Forest -4.5
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The career of Riley Skinner and a good core group of seniors is not going out the way that the Demon Deacons had expected – after three straight winning seasons and bowl appearances it has been a major disappointment. But now that makes this their bowl game, and with two full weeks to prepare, we can expect Jim Grobe and a program that has a lot of pride to bring their “A” game. It does not take much more than that to win easily this week, with no real home field advantage to overcome, and the Blue Devils simply out of gas. Duke has been out-scored 58-6 in the second half in three November games, including 38-0 in the fourth quarter, and at this stage there simply is no way to re-energize tired bodies. A ground game that has not reached 100 yards vs. a line opponent does not produce enough yards to buy Thaddeus Lewis time in the pocket, or eat enough clock to keep their own defense off the field, and this week Skinner goes out in style vs. those fading defenders.
Marc Lawrence
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Florida St at Florida
Play: Florida St
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The Seminoles travel to the Swamp to meet the Gators with major revenge on their minds in the regular season finale for both squads. That's because Florida has defeated Florida State each of the last five years in this series. With that we note FSU is 5-1 ATS in games against undefeated teams from Game Eight out. With the Gators just 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS at home in games before Bama, look for the Seminoles to scare the you-know-what out of Florida here today.
SEAN MURPHY
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Utah St. @ Idaho
PICK: Idaho -2.5
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The Idaho Vandals got off to a strong start this season before going off the rails over the past month. That's had a lot to do with a tough schedule that has included matchups with Nevada, Fresno State, and Boise State. They should find the going much easier in their home finale, as they host Utah State.
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Both teams own identical 7-4 ATS records this season, but it's Idaho that has managed to record a 7-4 SU record as well. Utah State is just 3-8 SU, including 0-6 on the road. The Aggies thought they could hang in there against Boise State last week, but that lasted for about a quarter-and-a-half before the Broncos exploded out to a 35-14 halftime lead.
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Idaho is coming off a beating at the hands of Boise State as well, however unlike the Aggies, who were outgained by over 200 yards in their loss, the Vandals actually picked up 56 more total yards than the Broncos. Two games back Idaho dropped a 31-21 decision against Fresno State, yet outgained the Bulldogs by 130 total yards. My point being, Idaho hasn't been completely outclassed against superior competition.
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Idaho is expected to get a boost from QB Nathan Enderle this week. He missed the team's last two games due to an injured rotator cuff. Enderle was having a fine season before getting hurt, throwing for over 2,400 yards, 15 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Look for him to finish the season strong against a Utah State defense that allows 8.2 yards per pass play on the road.
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Utah State's strength is in its ground game, but they're going up against a fairly solid Idaho run defense this week. The Vandals are allowing 4.7 yards per rush on the season, but that number drops to 4.0 ypr at home. In their last home game, the Vandals limited one of the best rushing attacks in the nation (Fresno State) to just 4.3 ypr.
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Utah State crushed Idaho by a 42-17 score last season, but this Vandals program has seen a lot of improvement since that time. The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of a field goal or less while Idaho is 6-2 ATS in its last eight lined home contests. I'll lay the short number with the Vandals in this one. Take Idaho.
LEE KOSTROSKI
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Notre Dame @ Stanford
PICK: Notre Dame +10.5
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This is only the third time this season that Notre Dame is an underdog, and they are 2-0 ATS on the two occasions this season. The Irish are victims of high scrutiny almost every week because of the prestige of football they carry. Yet this year, despite the fact that they are 6-5, they have done a pretty good job of dealing with a lot of that pressure. They’ve lost five games by a total of 21 points (4.2 PPG) and have been “in” every game that they have played. This week, they face Stanford, a team that has struggled to deal with the target on their back and all of the expectations. The Cardinal may win, but there is now way they cover by 10 or more points against the Irish.
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There is a lot of talk about Irish head coach Charlie Weis and if he’ll be back next year; but regardless, he’s always had his team playing hard and wanting to win. He may not have enough talent to win 10 games (due to a very difficult schedule) but he always has his team prepared and in a position to win in the 4th quarter. It helps his cause that he has one of the best quarterbacks in the nation leading his offense. And on Saturday, Jimmy Clausen leads a dangerous passing attack against Stanford’s 98th ranked pass defense. Clausen is completing 67% of his passes for 307 yards per game with 23 touchdowns and just 4 picks. WR’s Golden Tate and Michael Floyd have combined for 121 receptions for 2005 yards and 19 touchdowns and they make Clausen’s job easy as a QB. Overall, the Irish have the nations 6th best pass-offense and the 11th best total offense.
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Stanford defeated Oregon and USC in back-to-back weeks and it seemed as though everyone was jumping on the Cardinal bandwagon. They responded to all the attention by losing to California at home last week. They lost out on a share of the Pac-10 title and likely lost out on hopes of a January 1 bowl game. Cal out-gained Stanford by 132 yards and had 15 more first downs. Cardinal freshmen QB Andrew Luck had one of the worst games of his young career. Luck completed 10 of 30 passes for 157 yards and had 1 interception. He repeatedly missed open targets and had it not been for a couple of big runs by Toby Gerhart, Stanford would’ve lost by a lot more.
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Notre Dame defeated Stanford 28-21 last season. Clausen threw for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns and Notre Dame’s defense forced four turnovers. That pushed the Irish’ record to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Cardinal and they are also 4-1 ATS against Stanford in the last 5 meetings visiting the Cardinal. The Irish have been over-valued all season. Now, finally, they are getting undervalued as a huge underdog against an overrated Stanford squad. We expect the Irish to get the cover as the heavy underdogs on Saturday.
ALEX SMART
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Florida St @ Florida
PICK: Florida-24
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The #1 ranked Florida Gators (11-0, 5-5 ATS) will close out their regular season schedule by taking on their hated rivals to the north; otherwise known as the Florida State Seminoles (6-5, 3-8 ATS). Florida has owned this series under HC Urban Meyer going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS under his watch, but FSU would love nothing more than to cripple the Gators shot of another National Championship by pulling off the late November shocker.
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The Noles avoided a dreadful loss on Senior Day last Saturday by just getting passed the Maryland Terrapins 29-26. It was the fourth win in FSU's L/5 games, which allowed them to secure the ever so important 6th win of the season. QB EJ Manuel will face the daunting task of going up against the Gators' tough defense on Saturday. Manuel, who is only starting because of the season-ending injury to starter Christian Ponder, has thrown for 430 yards and one touchdown against four picks in limited time this season. However, Manuel will call on the spirit of QB Marcus Outzen, who famously led the Noles to an upset of Florida in 1998 when he was called upon off the bench when then QB Chris Weinke was injured.
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That aforementioned Florida team didn't have #15 on it though. Today’s game marks the final home game for Mr. Tebow, and you can bet your bottom dollar that the Swamp will be rocking. There’s a ton on the line for the Jacksonville native; a possible second Heisman Trophy, fourth victory against the ‘Noles, and most importantly, his third National Championship. A loss would crush all those goals. Tebow has thrown for 1,945 yards and 14 touchdowns against four interceptions this year, but has also been lethal on the ground racking up 706 yards and 11 TDs. He isn't all that HC Urban Meyer has at his disposal though. The Gators boast the #15 ranked offense in the land that’s averaged 442.8 yards per game this season. However, even more impressive is the defense that is only allowing 229.8 yards per game and 9.8 points per game. UF also ranks #1 against the pass (139.3 yards per game) and #7 against the rush (90.5 yards per game) in the NCAA.
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This is just such an impossible spot for an undermanned FSU team to compete in. Yes, the spread is gargantuan, but it’s one the Gators can handle. Florida’s proven to be in an entirely different league than the Noles recently winning by a combined score of 90-27 the L/2 seasons. Look for more blood to spill as the Gators scalp the Seminoles in Tebow’s last hurrah.
LARRY NESS
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Tulane @ SMU
PICK: SMU -17
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Everyone knows the success story June Jones wrote at Hawaii so there is little reason to waste time recapping it here. So it should come as no surprise that with a win Saturday against the pathetic Green Wave, Jones' SMU Mustangs will finish 7-5 and almost assuredly be headed to the school's first post-sanctions bowl game. SMU last appeared in a postseason game back in 1984. Jones went just 1-11 in his first year in Dallas (2008) but the Mustangs have made a run at C-USA's West title this year and could still win it by beating Tulane, if Houston was to lose at home to Rice (fat chance!). Anyway, this year's Mustangs are not reminiscent of Jones' best Hawaii teams but let's give the guy his due. QB Mitchell is serviceable, RB McNeal will go over 1,000 yards (978 YR / 4.9 YPC) for the season in this game and WR Sanders has caught 85 passes for 1,071 yards with six TDs. The Green Wave will post a losing season for the third straight year under Bob Toledo and for the seventh straight season overall. Tulane had an odd schedule this year, opening with FIVE of six games at home while closing with FIVE of six games on the road. This marks the team's third straight road game, which is NEVER a plus. After winning at Army 17-16 on October 3, the Green Wave have lost 43-6 at Southern Miss, 42-0 at LSU , 28-20 at 2-9 Rice and 49-0 at UCF. Last Saturday's game was awfully ugly, as the Green Wave were out-gained 504-50 in yards with FIVE turnovers (UCF had one). The fact is, Tulane has covered just TWO of its last 14 games on the board. Let's hear it for June Jones. Lay the points.
BIG AL
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Notre Dame at Stanford
Prediction: Stanford
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This is a huge game for Jim Harbaugh's men. Not only do they need to rebound off last week's heartbreaking loss to Cal, but they also need to snap Notre Dame's 7-game winning streak in this series. And, if my handicapping database is on target, then Stanford should win this game easily. As I mentioned, Stanford is playing this game with big-time revenge, and college teams who are favored by 4+ points are an awesome 44-20 ATS provided they've lost at least six straight times to their opponent. Throw in the fact that Stanford is 11-1 ATS over its last 12 home games, and we'll look for a Cardinal blowout of the Irish. Lay the points.
Jim Feist
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Troy vs. UL Lafayette
Play: Over 55
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Troy (8-3 SU/6-5 ATS) started off with two bad performances, but this offense is clicking now behind senior QB Levi Brown (19 TDs, 8 INTs), averaging 33 points 340 yards passing. They’ve scored 27, 30, 31, 33, 50, 42, 40, 20 and 47 points the last nine games (8-1). The running game has been nonexistent, but the passing attack is sizzling. They had a key 30-27 victory at Arkansas State rolling up 507 yards. Brown was sensational: 33-of-46 for 355 yards. Troy is 7-0 in the Sun Belt, closing in on a conference crown after Saturday’s 47-21 rout of Florida Atlantic as Brown had 477 passing yards. Rickey Bustle’s (6-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) UL Lafayette has a good offense but this pass defense will struggle this week. Look for plenty of offense and points, play Troy/Lafayette Over the total.
Black Widow
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1* on Baylor +21
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Baylor catches Texas Tech in a big letdown spot here. The Red Raiders just beat Oklahoma 41-13 in their most dominant performance of the season last week. Tech will have a hard time getting up for Baylor Saturday, a team they have beaten in 15 of the last 17 meetings. Baylor gave them a run for their money last season, losing by a final of 28-35 as 22-point underdogs. Baylor has been great in the role of a big underdog, as the Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Take Baylor and the points.
Carlo Campanella
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Florida State vs. Florida
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You'd have to go back 33 years to 1976 to find the last time Florida State was getting this many points! That was Head Coach Bowden's first season with the Seminoles and this might be his last. Florida (11-0) easily won last season's meeting, 45-15, and host this year's meeting knowing they're 10-1 ATS at home against non-conference opponents. That victory improved the Gators to a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS during the last 5 in this series and they should continue that money making run this Saturday behind a defensive unit leading the SEC Conference with 33 sacks. That type of pressure should be too much for FSU redshirted Freshman QB Manuel, who tossed 3 Interceptions against 2-9 Maryland last Saturday as Florida State escaped with a 29-26 win as 18 point Favorites. Willing to lay the big number as Florida has held ALL 11 opponents to 20 points or less, including 6 of those to a Touchdown or less! Gator QB Tebow passed on last year's NFL Draft to return to Florida for his Senior season and he makes his final home appearance looking to remain ranked #1 and undefeated this year.
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7* Play On Florida
SPORTS WAGERS
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Notre Dame +10 over Stanford
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This is probably the end of the Charlie Weis era at Notre Dame, as Weis fizzled after a successful first year coaching Tyrone Willingham’s players but has failed to make the Irish National Title contenders. The Weis era is going to be looked back on with scorn and frustration by the alumni and fans, but his players will always have his back. Charlie’s swan song comes against now overrated Stanford, who was predictably exposed by California in a game many expected them to win. Stanford was dropped from the top 25 and now will play in a high-tier bowl game, while Notre Dame will most likely play in a low-tier bowl with a new coach. Notre Dame is playing for Charlie Weis – that is for certain – and to get 10 points with a team that hasn’t lost by that margin this year is appealing. Jimmy Clausen will be playing on Sundays next season and in college football having a quarterback you can trust when taking double-digit points is a must. Notre Dame’s running game is really subpar and that forces them to have to throw to win this game against a bad Stanford secondary. Stanford has allowed 244 yards per game through the air and only has seven interceptions on the season. The Irish will take advantage and undoubtedly put up points to keep the game close, leaving Notre Dame’s defense to limit touchdowns against Stanford’s offense and keep special teams off the scoreboard. The motivation to win one for Charlie is a factor that can’t be underestimated. Teams either play to win for the coach who’s leaving or completely quit on them, and in Charlie Weis’ case his players are going to play for him until the very end. Play: #189 Notre Dame +10 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Wayne Root
Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Wouldn’t it be easy for the Clemson Tigers to brush aside the nonconference rivalry with the Gamecocks (6-5) and let their minds wander to the ACC championship game in Tampa, Fla., against Georgia Tech on Dec. 5? The battle of the Palmetto State always has bragging rights on the line, but Clemson is actually looking forward to its first ACC Championship game next week against Georgia Tech. The Gamecocks, meanwhile, have dropped three straight, including a 24-14 loss to top-ranked Florida two weeks ago.The Gamecocks have a great shot to pull the upset, "Statistically these teams are remarkably even in terms of yardage, but the scoring numbers have not added up for the Gamecocks through a much tougher schedule. South Carolina is bowl eligible, but this will be a key game coming off narrow losses in this series the past two years. The Gamecocks have not had an off week all season long so this should be a rejuvenated squad that had been worn down by the physical SEC schedule. The motivation has to come into question for Clemson as a lot more will be on the line next week with the ACC championship. South Carolina will prove how tough an SEC defense can be." TAKE SOUTH CAROLINA.
Brian Marshall
Game: New Mexico State vs. San Jose State
Play: New Mexico State +11
San Jose State should not be laying double-digits to any team in the league. San Jose State’s lone win this season came by 10 points against I-AA Cal Poly (they needed a late fourth quarter touchdown to get this win).
One big problem for San Jose State this season has been their terrible offense. In fact, San Jose State is only averaging 13 points per game in WAC play. This "key" alone is reason not to lay double-digits with San Jose State.
With two bad football teams clashing, we will gladly grab the points with the double-digit underdog.
Take New Mexico State +11