Jimmy Moore
Tennessee @ Kentucky
Pick: Tennessee -3
Reason: The Volunteers have beaten the Wildcats 24 times in a row SU with only 7 covers in that time for Kentucky. Also what a great time to play Kentucky since they are coming off of a big win against Georgia - it is very doubtful they can get 2 quality conference wins back to back. Lay this very short number with Tennessee.
Jack Clayton
Game: SDSU at UNLV
Pick: SDSU
San Diego State sophomore QB Ryan Lindley (22 TDs, 14 picks) is learning the new pro-style, "West Coast" system, along with WR DeMarco Sampson. Everything clicked in an impressive 42-28 win at Colorado State, as Lindley threw 6 TD passes, no picks and 459 yards! He has 13 touchdown passes in his past five games. UNLV is terrible defensively and cooked. Play San Diego State.
SPORTS ADVISORS
(15) Clemson (8-3, 7-3 ATS) at South Carolina (6-5, 6-4 ATS)
A week after clinching their first-ever berth in the ACC championship game, the Tigers now set their sights on their annual battle for state supremacy when they take on South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium.
Clemson officially wrapped up its first ACC Atlantic Division title when second-place Boston College lost to North Carolina early Saturday afternoon, then the Tigers went out and pounded Virginia 34-21 for their sixth consecutive win. However, they failed to cover as a 21-point home favorite – by far the most points they’ve given all season – ending a 4-0 ATS run. Clemson had a 366-273 edge in total offense and outscored the Cavaliers 10-0 after halftime.
The Gamecocks haven’t seen the field in two weeks, taking last week off after a hard-fought 24-14 home loss to Florida on Nov. 14, their third straight defeat and fourth in the last five games. South Carolina did cover as a 17½-point underdog against the Gators, ending overall ATS slides of 1-5 and 0-3. Coach Steve Spurrier’s offense has gone in the tank the last five weeks, producing 16 points or fewer in all five games and averaging just 12.6 points per contest after scoring 28 or more in four of their previous five outings.
Clemson has dominated this rivalry, winning two in a row, six of the last seven and 10 of the last 12, going 8-4 ATS dating to 1997. Last year, the Tigers rolled 31-14 as a one-point home favorite, and they’ve come out on top in each of their last three trips to Columbia (2-1 ATS), with the last two at Williams-Brice Stadium decided by a total of six points.
In addition to covering the spread in five of its last six overall, Clemson is on ATS runs of 10-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 5-1 in November, but it is also in pointspread funks of 2-8 in non-conference games, 1-5 against SEC opponents, 4-10 after an ATS setback, 2-7 as a favorite of three points or less and 1-5 as a road chalk in that range. The Gamecocks have covered twice this year as a home underdog and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a ‘dog and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five after a bye, but they’ve failed to cash in eight of 10 as a ‘dog of three points or fewer.
The Tigers are on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall in lined games and 4-0 in November, but they also carry “under” trends of 4-2 in non-conference games, 13-5 as a favorite, 5-1 as a road chalk, 7-1 when laying a field goal or less and 7-1 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, South Carolina is on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall, 10-3 at home, 6-0 as a home underdog and 4-1 against the ACC. Finally, three of the last four head-to-head meetings in Columbia – including the last two – have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tennessee (7-4, 6-5 ATS) at Kentucky (6-5 SU and ATS)
Two teams looking to improve their postseason bowl slots conclude their regular seasons in Lexington, Ky., where the Wildcats try to end a 24-game losing streak to Tennessee – the longest series losing streak in the country – in this annual SEC East showdown.
The Volunteers bounced back from a humbling 42-17 loss at Ole Miss with last Saturday’s 31-16 rout of Vanderbilt. However, they came up short as a 17-point home favorite, their second straight non-cover following a 4-0 ATS run, as the ‘dog is now 7-3 ATS in Tennessee’s last 10 games. The Vols’ success in coach Lane Kiffin’s first season has been tied to the offense, which has produced 31 points or more in all six wins (average of 43.3 per game) while managing 22 points or less in all five losses (15.4 ppg), including 17 or less four times.
Kentucky has followed up a three-game losing skid with a 5-1 SU roll, including an ongoing three-game win streak. Last week, the Wildcats went to Georgia and shocked the Bulldogs 34-27 as a 9½-point underdog. During its 5-1 run, Kentucky is averaging 29.3 ppg and giving up 18.3 ppg. Also, since starting the season 1-3 ATS, Rich Brooks’ teams has cashed in five of its last six lined games, with the ‘dog going 4-2 ATS in this stretch.
Two years ago, the Volunteers went to Lexington and needed three overtime periods to beat Kentucky 52-50 as a 2½-point road underdog and extend their dominance in this rivalry to 23 games in a row. Last year, Tennessee made it 24 straight with a much-more-comfortable 28-10 win as a four-point home chalk. The Vols have covered in nine of the last 13 meetings overall, including three straight in Lexington, and the visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Tennessee is on ATS upticks of 5-2 on the road and 6-2 as a road favorite (5-1 when laying three points or less on the road). The Wildcats have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 at home (1-4 ATS at home this year), but are otherwise on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in SEC play and 4-0 against opponents with a winning record.
Aside from a 5-1-1 “over” run as a road chalk, the Vols have been a clear-cut “under” team of late, with low-scoring trends of 21-8-1 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 11-5-1 as a favorite, 19-7-1 in conference play and 10-3-1 in November. Conversely, the over for Kentucky is on streaks of 7-2 at home, 5-2-1 as an underdog, 6-1 as a home pup and 7-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 4-2-1 in the last seven matchups in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Southern Miss (7-4, 5-5 ATS) at East Carolina (7-4, 5-5 ATS)
The Conference USA East Division title is on the line at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, where East Carolina hosts the Golden Eagles in a matchup of squads surging toward the finish line.
Southern Miss has won two in a row and four of its last five both SU and ATS, and kept its division title hopes alive with last week’s 44-34 win over Tulsa as an 8½-piont home favorite. It marked the third time in the last four games that the Eagles topped the 40-point mark, and they’re averaging 38.6 ppg during their 4-1 SU and ATS run.
Like their opponent today, the Pirates enter this contest having won two in a row and four of five both SU and ATS, including last week’s 37-21 rout of UAB as a 14½-point home favorite. East Carolina’s last four wins have all come within Conference USA and all four were double-digit routs, with an average margin of victory of 24.5 ppg (42-17.5). The Pirates’ only loss since mid-October was a 16-3 non-conference setback at home to then-No. 22 Virginia Tech, and the defense has held five straight opponents to 21 points or less.
East Carolina is 6-1 (5-2 ATS) in Conference USA action, one game ahead of both Southern Miss (5-2, 4-3 ATS) and Central Florida. Since both teams defeated Central Florida, the winner of this contest will claim the East Division crown.
Southern Miss crushed the Pirates 21-3 as a three-point home favorite last year, but East Carolina got the last laugh as it won the East Division title and upset Tulsa in the C-USA championship game. Still, this rivalry has been all Eagles, who have won and covered two in a row and seven of the last eight. Furthermore, Southern Miss is 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 clashes overall, including 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven trips East Carolina. Lastly, the favorite has gotten the cash in six of the last seven meetings overall.
The SU winner has covered the spread in each of these teams’ last seven games, and the winner is 14-0-1 ATS in the last 15 series meetings between these schools going back to 1994. Also, the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the Eagles’ last five games (after the underdog cashed in their first five lined contests) and 5-2 ATS in East Carolina’s last seven.
Southern Miss has gotten the money in six straight November contests and its 4-1 overall ATS run has all come within the conference, but the Eagles have struggled in the road underdog role (4-9 ATS last 13 and 3-8-1 ATS last 12 when catching 3½ to 10 points on the highway). Meanwhile, the Pirates have cashed in four straight games as a favorite, but they’re 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points and they’ve failed to cover in four of five against opponents with a winning record.
The under is 5-2 in the Eagles’ last seven overall, 5-2 in its last seven on the road, 8-2 in its last 10 Conference USA contests and 4-1 in its last five in November. The Pirates have stayed low in seven of 10 in November, but from there they’re on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall and 4-0 in conference play. Finally, the under is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(11) Oklahoma State (9-2, 5-4-1 ATS) at Oklahoma (6-5, 3-6-1 ATS)
Oklahoma State tries to stay in the hunt for an at-large BCS Bowl Berth when it makes the short trek to Norman, Okla., for the annual season finale against the hated Sooners.
Playing without injured QB Zac Robinson, the Cowboys survived a big scare last Thursday against Colorado, rallying for a 31-28 victory but coming up way short as a 17-point home favorite. Oklahoma State, which outgained Colorado 400-251 (232-13 on the ground), has won three in a row and eight of nine, while last week’s non-cover ended a 4-1 ATS uptick. The Cowboys have scored more than 30 points in eight of 11 games this year and are averaging 33 points, 197 passing yards and 204.3 rushing yards per game
With Robinson (shoulder) out last week, second-string QB Alex Cate started and was a disaster in the first half, going 0-for-9 with one interception. Cate gave way to third-stringer Brandon Weeden in the second half, and Weeden went 10-for-15 for 168 yards with two TDs, including the game-winner with 8:11 to play. Robinson is probable to start, but if he doesn’t, Weeden will get the nod.
Oklahoma’s disappointing season continued with last Saturday’s 41-13 loss at Texas Tech as a 6½-point road favorite. The Sooners, whose first four defeats were by a total of 12 points, finished with just 16 first downs, 310 total yards and 48 rushing yards, while the normally stout defense got torched for 32 first downs, 549 total yards and 161 rushing yards, and Texas Tech held the ball for 37 minutes.
It has been feast-or-famine all year for the Sooners, who have averaged 12.4 ppg in their five losses (scoring 13 or less in four of them) and 47.3 ppg in their six victories (tallying at least 33 points in all six). Additionally, OU’s six wins were all double-digit blowouts (37.3-point average margin of victory).
Oklahoma has won six straight meetings in this rivalry (5-1 ATS, including four straight spread-covers, all as a favorite). Last year in Stillwater, the Sooners rolled 61-41 as a 10-point road favorite, following a 49-17 win as a 13½-point home chalk in 2007. Five of the last seven clashes have been double-digit blowouts, and the last time the Cowboys won in Norman was in 2002 (38-28 as a 15-point pup). The host has cashed in eight of the last 11 in this series.
Oklahoma State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 on the highway (2-0-1 ATS this year), but is otherwise in ATS funks of 0-4 as an underdog, 11-23-1 as a road ‘dog and 7-23 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points. The Sooners are on pointspread slides of 2-5-1 overall, 2-5-1 against winning teams and 3-7 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, but they’re 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss (2-1 ATS after a defeat this year).
The under is 10-2 in the Cowboys’ last 12 on the highway and 8-1 in their last nine as a road pup, while Oklahoma carries under streaks of 9-2 overall, 4-2 at home, 5-2 in Big 12 play, 7-2 as a favorite and 8-2 against winning teams. However, five of the last seven in this rivalry have gone over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and UNDER
Florida State (6-5, 3-7 ATS) at (1) Florida (11-0, 5-5 ATS)
Tim Tebow and the rest of the Gators seniors take the field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium for the final time as Florida closes out the regular season and preps for next week’s SEC Championship Game with a non-conference battle with instate rival Florida State.
The Seminoles became bowl-eligible for the 28th consecutive season with last Saturday’s come-from-behind 29-26 victory over lowly Maryland, failing to cover as an 18-point home favorite. Trailing 26-22, Florida State got a 3-yard touchdown run from Lonnie Pryor with 32 seconds left to win for the fourth time in the last five games despite having the football for less than 23 minutes.
Florida finished regular-season SEC play with a 24-14 win at South Carolina on Nov. 14, then went out last week and embarrassed Florida International 62-3, covering as a massive 47-point home favorite. The defending champs have the nation’s longest winning streak at 21 in a row, with 19 of those victories being double-digit blowouts. The Gators are 14-5 ATS in lined action during their winning streak (all as a favorite), and they’ve held all 21 opponents to 21 points or less. This season, Urban Meyer’s defense is yielding just 9.8 points, 229.8 total yards and 139.3 passing yards per game, figures that rank first, second and first in the nation, respectively.
This has been a completely one-sided rivalry in recent years, with Florida winning five in a row (4-1 ATS). In 2007, the Gators scored a 45-12 victory as a 14-point home favorite, then they went to Tallahassee last year and posted a near-identical 45-15 rout, this time cashing as a 16-point road chalk. The Gators outgained the ‘Noles by a combined 1,043-539 margin the last two years, with Tebow accounting for nine touchdowns (six passing, three rushing).
Additionally in this series, the host is on an 11-4 ATS roll, and the favorite has cashed in nine of the last 11.
The Seminoles are in pointspread downfalls of 2-6 overall, 1-4 against opponents with a winning record and 8-21-1 after an outright victory, but they’re 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 as an underdog (4-1-2 ATS last seven as a road pup). Meanwhile, in addition to their 14-5 ATS mark during their winning streak, the Gators are also on pointspread surges of 7-3 at home, 19-7 against winning teams, 19-7 in non-conference play and 9-2 in November.
The under is 9-3 in Florida State’s last 12 games against SEC competition, but otherwise the Seminoles have been an “over” squad, posting high-scoring trends of 6-1 overall, 19-7 on the road, 13-3 as an underdog and 10-1 as a road ‘dog. The over is 15-7 in Florida’s last 22 home games, 8-3 in its last 11 non-league games and 8-3 in its last 11 in November, but the Gators are also on “under” streaks, including 7-2 overall, 6-1 against the SEC, 6-1 against winning opponents and 6-0 after a spread-cover.
Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this rivalry (4-1 last five years).
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER
Georgia (6-5, 3-7 ATS) at (7) Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-3 ATS)
The Bulldogs look to avenge last year’s embarrassing home loss to their instate rival and put a halt to Georgia Tech’s eight-game winning streak when these teams meet at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta.
Georgia’s roller-coaster season continued Saturday with a 34-27 home loss to Kentucky as a 9½-point favorite. The Bulldogs had a 487-260 edge in total offense, but that was offset by four turnovers, while the defense failed to force a single Kentucky miscue. Georgia has followed up a three-game winning streak by losing four of its last seven, and one of those victories came against Division I-AA Tennessee Tech (38-0).
The Yellow Jackets took last week off after pounding Duke 49-10 as a 13½-point road favorite on Nov. 14, clinching the ACC Coastal Division title and a berth in next week’s ACC Championship Game against Clemson. Not only has Georgia Tech won eight straight games, but it is 7-1 ATS and it has outgained six of the eight opponents, including four by 200 yards or more. Additionally, the Jackets have scored 30 points or more in six of their last seven games, topping the 40-point mark four times.
Georgia raced out to a 28-12 halftime lead against the Yellow Jackets last year and seemed poised to post its eighth consecutive win in this rivalry. However, Georgia Tech came out of the locker room and scored 26 unanswered points en route to a 45-42 victory as a 7½-point road underdog. In snapping the seven-game slide to the Bulldogs, the Yellow Jackets also halted 1-5-1 ATS slump in this rivalry. The road team is on a remarkable 9-1-1 ATS roll in this series, with the Dawgs winning four straight in Atlanta and going 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Georgia is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games against ACC opponents and 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog, but from there, the pointspread trends head downhill for the Bulldogs, including 5-14 overall, 2-5 on the highway, 3-8 after a SU defeat, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-5 in November
Not only have the Jackets cashed in seven of their last eight games, but they’re on further pointspread surges of 4-1 against the SEC and 5-1 as a favorite, but they’re 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 as a home favorite and 2-7 ATS in their last nine following a bye.
The Bulldogs are on “over” runs of 7-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a road pup, 8-3-1 against winning teams and 5-1 in November, and the over is 6-2-1 in Georgia Tech’s last nine in November and 5-1 in its last six against the SEC. However, the under is 3-1-1 in the Jackets’ last five overall and 4-1 in their last five at home. Finally, the last two meetings between these squads topped the total, following a 5-2 “under” run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and OVER
(22) Utah (9-2, 4-7 ATS) at (18) BYU (9-2, 6-5 ATS)
The Cougars shoot for their fourth straight victory when they take on archrival Utah in this bitter rivalry, which this year will decide second place in the Mountain West Conference.
The Utes had a six-game winning streak halted in humbling fashion with 55-28 loss at TCU as a 20-point road underdog two weeks ago, but they bounced back quickly and destroyed San Diego State 38-7 last Saturday, easily covering as a 21-point home favorite. Utah, which led the Aztecs 35-0 at halftime, are 30-3 in their last 33 games, including 12-3 in true road games. The losses came at TCU, at Oregon back in Week 3 of this season and at BYU in the 2007 regular-season finale.
BYU ran its winning streak to three in a row with Saturday’s 38-21 dismantling of Air Force, covering as an eight-point home chalk. The Cougars outgained Air Force 498-300 and led 31-7 after three quarters, and like Utah, they’ve won seven of their last eight games – and like Utah, the one blemish was an ugly loss to TCU (38-7 at home). BYU has alternated spread-covers in its last five games and hasn’t cashed in consecutive contests starting the year 2-0 ATS.
Two years ago, Utah made the 45-minute drive south to Provo and took a 10-9 lead over the Cougars with just 90 seconds to play. However, BYU drove down the field quickly and scored the winning TD with 38 seconds left to pull out a 17-10 win as a 4½-point home favorite. The Utes got their revenge last year, though, walloping BYU 48-24 as a 6½-point chalk, improving to 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five.
The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six in this rivalry, but the Utes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Provo. Additionally, the favorite has cashed the last two years after the ‘dog had gotten the money in 12 of the previous 14 battles. Also, 10 of the last 12 BYU-Utah wars have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Utah has failed to cover in four of its last five road games and four straight against winning opponents, but the Utes are on ATS upticks of 25-7-1 as an underdog, 25-8-1 as a road pup, 13-4-1 when catching between 3½ and 10 points and 5-1 in November. The Cougars are in ATS slumps of 2-6 at home, 2-5 as a home favorite, 4-11 after a SU win and 0-4 after a spread-cover.
The under is 6-2 in Utah’s last eight games overall (5-2 in Mountain West play), but the over is 4-1 in its last five as an underdog and 4-1 in its last five in November. BYU sports high-scoring trends of 7-3 overall, 7-2 in conference, 8-2 as a favorite and 4-1 in November.
In this rivalry, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings overall, but five of the last six at Lavell Edwards Stadium have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH
(19) Miami, Fla. (8-3, 5-5 ATS) at South Florida (7-3, 3-5 ATS)
The Hurricanes will try to improve their bowl standing when they close out the regular season with a trip north to Tampa Bay for non-conference tussle against South Florida at Raymond James Stadium.
Miami bounced back from a 33-24 loss at North Carolina with a 34-16 rout of Duke last week, coming up just short as an 18½-point home favorite to fall to 1-4 ATS in its last five games (all within the ACC). The Hurricanes rallied from a 16-10 deficit and scored the final 24 points of the game, finishing with a 496-358 advantage in total offense. They’ve outgained their last three opponents by a total of 610 yards.
The Bulls also rebounded from an ugly loss last Saturday, following a 31-0 setback at Rutgers with a 34-22 home win over Louisville. However, they pushed as a 12-point home favorite despite rolling up 538 yards of total offense and holding the Cardinals to 313. South Florida has scored at least 30 points in six of its seven wins (averaging 35.6 ppg in all seven victories), while producing a total of 31 points in its three losses (all to Big East foes Cincinnati, Pitt and Rutgers).
Despite playing in the same state, these schools have met just once previously, and that was in 2005, with Miami wining 27-7 but barely misfiring as a 21-point home favorite.
The ‘Canes have cashed in six of their last seven non-conference games, but from there, it’s all negative ATS trends, including 1-4 overall, 1-5 against teams from the Big East, 16-34-1 as a favorite, 1-4 as a road favorite, 3-13 when laying between 3½ and 10 points and 1-5 in November.
South Florida is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five overall and 4-12 ATS in its last 16 against winning teams, but the Bulls have cashed in four of five as an underdog, five of six as an underdog of 3 ½ to 10 points and four straight against the ACC – including a 17-7 outright upset of Florida State as a 14-point road pup earlier this season.
Miami has stayed under the total in 35 of its last 51 non-conference games, including six straight against the Big East, but the over is 4-1 in its last five overall and 6-2 in its last eight as a road favorite. South Florida carries “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 5-2-1 in November, but the under is 11-5 in its last 16 as an underdog and 4-1 in its last five against non-conference competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA
Arkansas (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at (17) LSU (8-3, 5-6 ATS)
As per tradition, SEC rivals Arkansas and LSU close out the regular season against each other, with the Razorbacks looking to post their fifth consecutive overall victory and their third straight upset win over the Tigers.
Arkansas crushed Mississippi State 42-21 as an 11½-point home favorite, notching its fourth straight victory and third consecutive spread-cover (all at home). During the winning streak – which includes non-conference routs of Eastern Michigan and Troy – the Razorbacks have averaged 49.3 ppg while yielding just 21 ppg. However, Arkansas has lost all three of its true road games this year, all in SEC play (1-2 ATS).
LSU is hoping to recover from a painful 25-23 loss at Ole Miss last week. The Tigers blew a 14-6 first-quarter lead and trailed 25-17 with less than four minutes to play. Then they got a 25-yard TD pass from QB Jordan Jefferson, missed the game-tying two-point conversion, then recovered the onside kick and converted a miraculous fourth-and-26 with nine seconds to play. However, because it was out of timeouts, LSU couldn’t stop the clock, and it chose not to rush the field-goal unit onto the field for a potential game-winning kick. The clock expired with Jefferson inexplicably spiking the ball.
The Tigers were on the short end of a 426-290 total yardage discrepancy at Ole Miss, but still managed to cover as a 4½-point road underdog, improving to 4-2 ATS in their last six. Following a seven-game stretch in which the defense gave up 13 points or less six times, LSU has surrendered an average of 21.6 ppg in the last three.
Arkansas has pulled off back-to-back thrilling upsets in this rivalry, winning 50-48 in triple-overtime as a 13-point road underdog in 2007, following by last year’s 31-30 win as a seven-point home pup, with the game-winning TD coming on a 24-yard pass with 21 seconds to play. LSU had won the four previous meetings (3-1 ATS), and the underdog has now covered in seven of the last 10 series battles, including four outright upsets.
The Razorbacks are on pointspread surges of 6-2 overall, 4-1 in conference, 4-0 in November, 5-0 after a SU win and 7-3 as an underdog. Meanwhile, despite covering the number four times in its last six games, LSU remains mired in a slew of ATS slumps, including 9-22-1 overall, 3-10 at home, 7-17-1 in SEC play, 1-12 in SEC home games, 3-8 as a favorite, 3-7 as a home favorite, 1-9 in November and 1-6 after a spread-cover. In fact, the Tigers haven’t covered a pointspread in three straight games since starting the 2007 season 3-0 ATS.
The under is 4-0 in Arkansas’ last four as a visitor and 4-1 in its last five as a road underdog, and LSU is on “under” stretches of 5-2 overall, 7-0 at home, 5-1 as a favorite and 6-0 as a home favorite. However, the Tigers have topped the total in 15 of 22 versus SEC rivals and 10 of 13 in November. Finally, this rivalry has seen the over hit in five of the last six years, including the last three in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARKANSAS and OVER
Notre Dame (6-5, 3-8 ATS) at Stanford (7-4 SU and ATS)
Charlie Weis likely will be coaching his final game for Notre Dame as he leads his struggling squad into Stanford Stadium for a meeting with the Cardinal in the regular-season finale for both teams.
The Irish suffered their third consecutive close defeat last Saturday, losing 33-30 to UConn in double-overtime as a six-point home favorite. Notre Dame blew leads of 14-0 and 17-10 and allowed the Huskies to run for 231 yards, ruining yet another strong game by QB Jimmy Clausen (30-for-45, 329 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs). The Irish have lost their last three by a total of 10 points, and nine of their last 10 games have been decided by seven points or less, including seven by five points or less.
After two monster upsets of ranked foes Oregon (51-42 as a seven-point home underdog) and USC (55-21 as a 10½-point road ‘dog), Stanford came crashing back down to earth last week, losing to archrival Cal 34-28 as a seven-point home chalk, costing the team a shot at the Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl berth. The Cardinal defense surrendered 477 total yards (242 rushing), but Stanford RB Toby Gerhart had another huge game, rushing for 136 yards and all four of his team’s touchdowns. Over his last three games, Gerhart has 537 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Irish own a seven-game winning streak against Stanford, and they’re 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Palo Alto. Three of the last four clashes have been decided by exactly seven points, including the last two, with Notre Dame prevailing 21-14 as a five-point road underdog in 2007 and 28-21 as a 5½-point home chalk last year. Finally, the ‘dog has taken the money three times in the last four series meetings.
Since the Irish’s 35-0 rout of Nevada as a 14-point home favorite in the season opener, the underdog has now covered the spread in each of Notre Dame’s last 10 games, and that includes three outright upsets. That said, the Irish are 2-8 ATS in those games, and they’re also 1-4 ATS in their last five November contests.
Stanford had covered in 11 consecutive home games prior to last week’s loss to Cal. Still, the Cardinal are on positive pointspread runs of 6-2 as a favorite, 12-3-1 as a home chalk, 5-2 in November, 5-1 after a non-cover and 6-2 after a SU loss.
Notre Dame topped the total in last week’s overtime game against UConn, but is still on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 13-3 on the highway, 13-5 as an underdog, 24-8-1 as a road pup, 13-6 against Pac-10 foes and 5-1-1 in November. Stanford has gone over the number in five of six overall and seven in a row in November, but Jim Harbaugh’s team is also on “under” stretches of 10-3 as a home favorite, 6-1 as a chalk of 3 ½ to 10 points, 36-14-1 after a SU loss and 29-8-1 following a non-cover. Lastly, six of the last nine in this rivalry have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD and UNDER
UCLA (6-5 SU and ATS) at (24) USC (7-3, 2-8 ATS)
The annual battle for Southern California bragging rights takes place at the L.A. Coliseum, where surging UCLA looks to close out the regular season with a rare victory over the hated Trojans.
The Bruins opened Pac-10 play with five straight losses (1-4 ATS), but they’ve bounced back to win their last three in a row (2-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 23-13 victory over Arizona State as a 4½-point home chalk. UCLA’s defense has returned to form, giving up just 43 points the last three weeks after surrendering 24 points or more during the five-game losing skid (29.2 ppg).
USC took last week off after suffering a humiliating 55-21 home loss to Stanford as a 10½-point favorite, the team’s fifth consecutive ATS setback. The 55 points allowed were the most since Pete Carroll took over as coach, and the 34-point margin of defeat was the biggest in Carroll’s tenure. It also was the first time in 29 games in the Carroll era that USC lost in November. The Trojans enter this contest having given up 27 points or more in four of their last five games (41.3 ppg allowed in those four contests), while the offense has produced just 55 points (18.3 ppg) in the last three outings.
The Trojans have owned their crosstown rivals since Carroll came on board, winning two in a row and nine of 10 meetings. Last year, USC cruised 28-7, but failed to cover as a 32-point road favorite, In fact, UCLA has cashed in three straight meetings and four of the last five (all as an underdog). Still, the Bruins are just 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to the Coliseum. Finally, the underdog is 6-3 ATS in the last nine series battles, and the host is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
The Bruins have failed to cover in four of their last five as an underdog and four of their last five against winning teams, but they’re otherwise on positive ATS rolls of 9-4 in November, 4-1 after a SU win and 7-1 when catching more than 10 points.
In addition to their five-game ATS slide (0-4 ATS in conference), the Trojans are in pointspread funks of 1-8 overall (all as a favorite), 0-3 at home, 0-5 as a double-digit favorite, 0-6 when coming off a loss of more than 20 points and 0-4 versus opponents with a winning record. On the bright side, USC is still 12-5 ATS in its last 17 after SU defeat, 11-4 ATS in its last 15 after a bye and 21-7 ATS In its last 28 in November.
UCLA carries a slew of “under” trends into this contest, including 22-8-1 overall (8-2 last 10), 6-1 on the road, 10-7-1 as an underdog, 5-0 as a road ‘dog and 7-1 in November. The under is also 33-16-2 in USC’s last 51 conference games and 5-0 in its last five after a SU defeat, but from there, the Trojans are on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 4-0 against winning teams.
Lastly, the past three meetings and four of the last five in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA and UNDER
Tom Freese
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
UCLA at USC
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
USC is 33-16 UNDER their last 51 Conference games and they are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 games off a straight up loss. The Trojans are 15-5-1 UNDER their last 21 games as home favorites of 10.5 or greater and they are 4-1 UNDER the last 5 games in this series. UCLA is 22-8-1 UNDER their last 31 games overall and they are 7-1 UNDER off a bye week. The Bruins are 21-7 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record and they are 7-1 UNDER their last 8 November games.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play on: Under
Jimmy Boyd
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Notre Dame vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford -10
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Stanford is 5-1 SU & ATS at home this season to improve to 10-1 ATS in all home games over the last 2 seasons. After losing their first home game of the season to Cal last week, expect the Cardinal to bounce back strong against the struggling Irish. Stanford runs the football exceptionally well, averaging 219 yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry. I can't see a Notre Dame defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry on the season stopping the Cardinal here. Expect Stanford to put together long clock-eating drives to wear out the Notre Dame defense and to keep the Notre Dame offense off the field. Notre Dame is 2-8 ATS in all lined games this season, including 0-3-1 ATS away from home. I'll take the Cards for 1 unit.
Tony George
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
So Mississippi vs. East Carolina
Play: East Carolina -5.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Taking the home team with the better QB and overall team playing with double revenge for a shot at the conference title. Respect ECUs ability to step up in big games, and none bigger in the confernece than this one. So. Miss not a good road team losing to Kansas, UAB and Louisville on the road, and just 1-4 on the year as a road team. So. Miss has given up 34 ppg and 567 yards per ganme on defense in their last 3 games, and ECU cam light it up at home. Some frustration here for ECU losing 7 out of 8 against their hated foe, I like their chances today to win by 7-9 points.
Steve Merril
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Tulane vs. SMU
Play: SMU -18.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
SMU is starting to grasp head coach June Jone’s passing offense and the Mustangs have averaged a fantastic 9.6 yards per pass in their past four games which is way above their season average of just 7.2 yards per pass. SMU should have plenty of success today against a terrible Tulane secondary that is permitting 68.3% completions and 8.7 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that average just 60.9% and 7.5 ypp). Tulane has a terrible offense that is averaging only 15.6 points per game and only 4.8 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 27.2 ppg and 5.7 yppl). Tulane has been repeatedly blown out on the road this season, losing three of their past four road games by at least 37 points or more, including a 0-49 loss at Central Florida last week. This is now an extremely difficult scheduling situation as the Green Wave are playing on the road for the third straight week and Tulane is now playing their fifth road game in the past six weeks.
Rob Vinciletti
Pacific vs. San Jose State
Play: Pacific +2.5
Pacific owns all the stats in this one. They shoot and defend better than San Jose St. Pacific is 26-9 vs teams with a losing record and has won 8 of the last 9 in this series. When taking on non conference teams they have won 24 of 34 times including their last five. San Jose St is a terrible 4-12 ats as a favorite,including 0-3 at home recently. When taking on teams that have a winning record they are 8-20 and a paltry 14-42 vs teams who play good defense and allow 64 point per game or less. Pacific is the way to go in this one.
Alex Grosse
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
North Carolina vs. NC State
Play: North Carolina -5½
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
This is a match up featuring 2 teams heading in opposite directions. North Carolina has won 4 in a row and covered in each of those 4 games. N.C. State has lost 6 of their last 7 games and is 2-5 ATS in that stretch. During the 4 game win streak the Tar Heels have defeated the top teams in the ACC. They won at Virginia Tech and at home vs. Miami (FL) and at Boston College. The Tar Heels are led by junior quarterback T.J. Yates. His stats are not very good at all this season. He has thrown for 1673 yards, 10 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The Tar Heels' defense has been getting the job done, allowing only 15.9 points per game. They are going to need their defense to step up because N.C. State is averaging 30.5 points per game. They are the opposite of North Carolina as their defense has been problematic, allowing 30.9 points per game. Something has to give in this game and I believe a stronger defense can shut down a strong offense. With that being said take the defense of North Carolina to cover the number.
Tony Mathews
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Central Florida vs. Ala Birmingham
Selection: Ala Birmingham +3
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
This game means a lot for Ala Birmingham. A win for Ala Birmingham here means they are bowl eligible. So you can expect them to put a lot of effort into this game (especial since they will be playing at home in front of their fans).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Central Florida is off four straight conference victories, however, we are not being fooled by all the hype. Before this "hot run" by Central Florida (scoring 156 combined points in their last four league games), they had one of the worst statistical offenses in the country. With that said, we are not falling for the hype that Central Florida has a "great" offense. Of course, all this hype is better for us as we are getting Ala Birmingham at an underdog price!
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Ala Birmingham has played a tough schedule (five of their last six games have been on the road), so they will be glad to be at home in front of their fans fighting for a bowl shot!
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Take Ala Birmingham +3
Dominic Fazzini
Baylor at TEXAS TECH -20
Was there any doubt that Wyoming was going to win at Colorado State on Saturday? There's wasn't any doubt in my mind, and it paid off with another winner. That makes me 16-3 over my last 19 complimentary selections, including a 13-2 run!
And you better believe the party is going to continue today as Texas Tech is going to have its way at home against Baylor.
The comparison between these two teams' offenses isn't even fair. The Red Raiders average 38.2 points and 470.2 yards per game, while the Bears are at 21.5 points and 343 yards per game.
Texas Tech has the second-ranked passing game in the nation, averaging 417.7 ypg, and the Bears have the 10th-ranked defense in the Big 12, allowing 408.9 yards per game, including 223 through the air.
But the only reason the Bears' passing defense doesn't rank worse than that is because they allow a conference-worst 185.9 yards on the ground, so teams usually don't have to throw the ball against them. But they will give up plenty of yards and points today.
And not only do the Red Raiders have the better offense by leaps and bounds, but their defense is also superior to Baylor's unit. Texas Tech ranks seventh in the Big 12 in total defense, giving up 349.4 ypg.
The Bears rank second-to-last in both scoring offense and total offense in the Big 12, besting only Colorado in both categories, so I expect things to get quite ugly today.
Baylor is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. Texas Tech, and the favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. Cowboys Stadium is going to see a team really put some points on the board this weekend. Take the Red Raiders to win today's game in Arlington by four touchdowns or more.
4♦ TEXAS TECH
Stephen Nover
Florida State at FLORIDA -25
Not since 1976 has Florida State been this big of an underdog. And for good reason. Don't look for the No. 1 ranked Gators to take it easy on their long-time hated in-state rival.
Sure Alabama looms ahead. But the Gators have too much going to look past Florida State. This includes a 21-game winning streak, 10 straight home victories and eight straight wins versus non-conference opponents.
The Gators had an easy time last week, rolling past Florida International, 62-3. They need a sharp performance against a legitimate foe to be in peak form for the Crimson Tide.
Florida State has one of the worst spread records in the nation at 3-8. The Seminoles have been able to pull upsets this season knocking off BYU, Wake Forest and North Carolina. But they are without star quarterback Christian Ponder, done for the year with a shoulder injury.
Redshirt freshman E.J. Manuel is no match for a Florida defense that ranks No. 1 in total defense and scoring defense allowing under 10 points per game.
Florida State has struggled against far, far inferior competition needing late scores to beat Florida State and Maryland. The problem for Florida State, besides an inexperienced quarterback right now, is a dreadful defense that ranks a mind-boggling 106th.
The Seminoles have not been competitive against Florida since Urban Meyer came on the scene.
The Gators have beaten the Seminoles the past four times by an average of 24.2 points. Three of the victories have been by at least 27 points.
3♦ FLORIDA GATORS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Arkansas +3' at LSU
We feel last week's last second loss at Ole Miss is going to have an effect on LSU this Saturday afternoon, and we expect the Bayou Bengals to struggle once again against the Razorbacks.
The QB matchup of Mallet versus Jackson certainly is in favor of the Hogs, as Mallet has been on fire, while Jackson is still nursing the effects of an ankle injury, and he was sacked 6 times in last week's loss to the Rebels.
LSU is just 1-12 their last 13 when hosting the SEC, and they have failed to win either of the last 2 series meeting straight up, while going just 1-3 against the spread the last 4 series showdowns.
Arkansas brings a nice 6-2 spread mark their last 8 on line this season into Baton Rouge, and we would not at all be surprised if the Razorbacks were able to run their series win streak to 3 in a row.
Play on the Hogs.
4♦ ARKANSAS
Jeff Benton
Arkansas +3' at LSU
Scored a 6♦ free-play winner with Illinois plus the points at Cincinnati on Friday. For Saturday, I’ll stay in College Football and take Arkansas plus the points at LSU.
If I’m still shocked at the way LSU blew that game at Ole Miss last week, how do you think the Tigers are feeling? Down 25-17 with less than four minutes to play, LSU battled back with a touchdown, missed the game-tying two-conversion, then recovered the onside kick and had a chance to pull off the upset. However, coach Les Miles completely mismanaged his timeouts in the final minute, so when QB Jordon Jefferson completed a Hail Mary inside the Ole Miss 15-yard line on fourth-and-long with one second to play, LSU couldn’t keep the clock stopped after the officials’ timeout to reset the chains. Then came the damndest thing I’ve ever seen: Rather than rush his field-goal unit on the field or instruct Jefferson to take a shot at the end zone– again there was one second on the clock! – Miles told his QB to spike the ball!
I’ve said many times that I’m not a Les Miles fan, and what happened last Saturday should explain why that opinion is warranted. And with the Tigers’ season having completely unraveled the last six weeks (3-3 record after a 5-0 start), I’m not expecting much effort or emotion from the home team. At the same time, Arkansas is finishing the season strong. The Razorbacks have posted four consecutive double-digit wins (victory margins of 36, 17, 36 and 21 points), going 3-0 ATS in the last three. Since the calendar flipped to October, the Razorbacks are 6-2 SU and ATS (and one of those losses was a 23-20 setback at top-ranked Florida – a game Arkansas should’ve won!)
The Hogs have taken control of this rivalry, too, posting back-to-back upsets of LSU. In 2008, they won 50-48 in double-overtime as a 13-point underdog, then last year, they rallied from a 30-14 fourth-quarter deficit for 31-30, scoring the game-winning touchdown with 21 seconds left.
LSU is carrying some woeful ATS trends (9-22-1 ATS overall; 3-10 ATS at home, 7-17-1 ATS in SEC play, 1-12 ATS in SEC home games, 3-8 ATS as a favorite, 1-9 ATS in November), while Arkansas has cashed in seven of 10 as an underdog (in addition to six of eight overall). I smell another outright Razorbacks upset in this rivalry, but we’ll take the points just to be safe.
4♦ ARKANSAS