Michael Alexander
Georgia Tech vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia -12½
Under head coach Mark Richt, the Georgia Bulldogs are 38-1 SU at home versus. non-SEC opponents. They are 12-1 SU overall versus Georgia Tech, covering the spread in seven of their last nine meetings. With frosh phenom Nick Chubb leading the way, UGA is averaging 6.2 yards per rush.
Anthony Michael
Auburn +8.5
Auburn pulled the stunner finish of the year last year with their win over Alabama so I know the Tide will be loaded for revenge but all the pressure here is on Alabama from a national championship perspective. Alabama is only 2-6 ATS as conference home favorites of less than double digits and they only have 3 covers all season long. Take the points here.
Wunderdog
New Mexico State @ Arkansas State
Pick: Arkansas State -23
Football hasn't been the strong suit at New Mexico State in recent memory. That can be summed up by the Aggies' 86-234 record over their last 320 games. They have not benefitted from the oddsmakers either as they are an CFB worst 118-156-5 ATS over the period. The road has been even worse as the Aggies are 32-139 straight-up and a woeful 60-91-4 ATS, covering less than 40% of the time. Put them in an unwinnable position as greater than a +20 point dog and they are 1-57 SU and 19-38-1 ATS, covering just one of every three games. This should be an easy one for Arkansas State who has been strong at home, and their 6-5 Bowl resume would be enhanced at 7-5, and a big win for some style points if needed. It's hard to buck the numbers in this one, which are just plain ugly for the Aggies. Lay the points on Arkansas State.
AC Dinero
Middle Tenn St vs. UTEP
Play: Middle Tenn St +4
Both teams are bowl eligible at 6-5. However the loser that falls to 6-6 may not get an invite. UTEP has has a surprising, but odd season. Usually a bottom feeder in CUSA, the Miners have put themselves into a position for a bowl game mainly with its 3rd down play. The odd part is the defense is terrible, giving up 5.2 ypc and 7.9 ypa, yet manages to get off the field on 3rd down (35%). Meanwhile, MTSU has been solid on offense (4.7 ypc 7.7 ypa), has the better defense, and is more productive in the red zone. Don't be surprised to see MTSU with straight up
Tony Stoffo
Washington vs. Washington State
Play: Washington State +3.5
Reverse money action move setting up here as the public all on the Huskies in this spot with close to 70% of all bets placed - however this line has started moving the other way meaning the sharps have landed on the Cougars here. And I totally agree as this new Washington State Falk is the real deal. The Cougars the very live dog here tonight. The Underdog is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 meetings. Washington State the play here.
Marc Lawrence
Michigan State at Penn State
Pick: Penn State
Edges - Nittany Lions: 5-1 ATS conference home dog 4 or more points. Spartans: 5-13 SU in this series, including 1-8 SU here. With PSU head coach James Franklin 19-9 SU and 16-7 ATS at home in his head coaching career, look for the Lions to avoid their first losing record at hem since 2003 with a stunning shocker here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Penn State.
Matt Fargo
Utah State at Boise State
Pick: Utah State
The Mountain West Conference Mountain Division is on the line Saturday night but even if Utah St. is eliminated from contention by Colorado St. winning, there is still a lot on the line. The Aggies have won five straight games and it is because of their defense which has been stout all season long as they are ranked 10th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 18.3 ppg. While Boise St. possesses a potent offense, the Broncos have not scene a defense of this caliber since Week One, when Mississippi pummeled the Broncos, 35-13. On the other side, Utah St. has found some rhythm behind freshman quarterback Kent Myers, the team's fourth string signal caller, as he has led them to all five wins while throwing for 639 yards and five touchdowns and rushing for 192 yards and three touchdowns. The Boise St. defense is ranked just 79th in the country, giving up more than 28 ppg and that average jumps to 31 ppg in conference play. Utah St. is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while going 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games after a win by 21 or more points. Boise St. meanwhile is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after rushing for 300 or more yards while going 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win of more than 20 points.
Jimmy Boyd
Ole Miss +3
The Rebels may appear to be down for the count after last week’s ugly loss to Arkansas, but I fully expect this team to bounce back with an inspired effort at home against the Bulldogs. It’s certainly going to make it easier to get motivated against a big in-state rival, especially with what’s at stake for Mississippi State. The Rebels would love nothing more than to spoil the Bulldogs hopes of getting into the playoff and potentially winning a national championship.
One thing I like about Ole Miss is they have nothing to lose in this one and that makes them a dangerous team. Mississippi State on the other hand has a tremendous amount of pressure on them and a lot of teams really struggle in this spot. Almost every season a team with everything on the line fails to play up to their potential in this exact scenario.
It certainly doesn’t look good for the Ole Miss offense after getting shutout by Arkansas, but the Razorbacks are a dangerous team. Keep in mind they nearly went on the road and upset Mississippi State a few weeks back. It’s also worth nothing that the Rebels were done in by 6 turnovers, as they actually outgained the Razorbacks on the game 316 to 311.
The Ole Miss offense should have a much easier time moving the ball in the comforts of their home stadium in what's a good matchup for them. The Rebels are built around senior quarterback Bo Wallace and the passing attack and they will be facing a Mississippi State defense that ranks 116th in the country against the pass (281.4 ypg).
The Rebels also have the talent defensively to slow down Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs high-powered offensive attack. Ole Miss comes in ranked 1st in the country in scoring defense (13.5 ppg) and 10th in total defense (309.9 ypg). They are also 12th in the country against the pass (179.0 ypg).
The Rebels are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games against teams who average 250 or more passing yards/game and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss by more than 20 points. These two trends combine to form a 70% (39-17) system in favor of the Rebels.
Steve Janus
Baylor/Texas Tech Over 79
I know this is a massive total, but I don't think these two teams are going to have any problem going past 80 points. Baylor needs style points to try and jump TCU in the rankings and they are well aware of the 82 points that the Horned Frogs hung on the Red Raiders earlier this season. Baylor has scored no fewer than 48 in their last 3 games and are certainly capable of eclipsing this total on their own if they keep their foot on the gas. Texas Tech is the perfect opponent, as their pass-happy offense plays right into the hands of Baylor's uptempo offense. Both teams should get more plenty of chances to score and each can strike quickly. The Red Raiders put up 30 at home against Oklahoma two games ago and with the Bears likely scoring 60+ that's more that would be icing on the cake if they reached that mark. Don't let the big number scare you away from what I think is one of the easier tickets to cash on Saturday.
System - OVER is 43-19 (69%) since 1992 when you have a total of 70 or more points in a game that features two excellent offenses (440+ ypg) at least 8 games into the season where one of the teams has gained 450 or more total yards in 3 straight games (Baylor).
Stephen Nover
Mississippi St -2.5
Mississippi is wearing down and minus key players. The Rebels are only 3-3 since upsetting Alabama.
Mississippi's defense has outstanding season numbers, but have surrendered 65 points during their past two SEC matchups and are without star linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche. It's current form isn't very good.
The Bulldogs can take advantage with Dak Prescott, who has accounted for a school-record 36 touchdowns. The Bulldogs average an SEC-best 511.7 total yards of offense per game and play outstanding run defense.
Mississippi State beat Mississippi in last year's Egg Bowl despite Prescott missing the first three quarters with a shoulder injury.
Now it is Rebels quarterback Bo Wallace who is limited by an ankle injury and is without his top receiver, Laquon Treadwell.
Mississippi State has covered five of its last six road games and 12 of its last 16 overall games. The Bulldogs also are 9-2 ATS during their past 11 SEC matchups.
Both of these teams were excellent for the first two months. Mississippi State still remains very strong. But Mississippi clearly has slipped. The gap is wider than just a field goal now for the Bulldogs.
Jesse Schule
Auburn vs. Alabama
Pick: Alabama
Auburn has been one of college football's elite teams over the last two seasons. The Tigers have gotten lucky on numerous occasions though, with wins coming in games that they could have, and maybe should have lost. One of those games was in last year's Iron Bowl at home against Alabama. The Tigers upset the Tide on a 100 yard return on a missed field goal attempt to win the game.
A year later, and Alabama will have a chance to avenge that loss, and this time the game will be played on their home turf. Auburn scheduled a soft opponent last week, and a 31-7 win over Samford doesn't impress much. Prior to that the Tigers went 2-3 during a five game stretch where they could have easily lost all five of those games.
They barely survived in a 42-35 win over the Gamecocks, and then Ole Miss had the game winning TD come off the board with a video review ruling the play a fumble prior to crossing the line.
It was just a few weeks ago that Texas A&M upset Auburn, and that same Aggies team lost 59-0 at Alabama. I bet against the Tigers in that game, as well as their loss to Georgia. I just don't think this team is as good it's cracked up to be, and I can't see them hanging with the Tide here in Alabama.
Soccer Authority
Real Madrid vs. Malaga
Pick: Over
Real Madrid will look to take one step closer to the top of table as they travel to Malaga in search of another Win.
Real Madrid have been described as a Goal Machine of late, and that sounds pretty accurate to us.
Los Blancos have scored 57 goals in a 15-game winning streak leading up to this game; they have also managed to score at least 3 Goals in their last 6 league games.
We should also note that the last 8 meetings between these teams has yielded 4.25 Goals per game on average.
Joe Gavazzi
Texas St. -13
Georgia St. is in clear contention as the worst of the 127 lined teams. Following an opening week victory over ABC, they have lost their next 10 games. In the last 4 contests, Georgia St. has been outscored 186-52, losing every game by 24 or more points. With a defense that allows 300/6.1 overland and 42 PPG for the season, simply can’t see that changing today. Texas St. is a team on the come, fueled by a 45-27 home field victory against quality foe Arkansas St. In that game, they outrushed the Red Wolves 370-132. This has become a powerful offensive team, who has now covered their last 3 contests and is averaging 229/5.1 overland and a balanced 222/7.0 through the air. Rarely, in his lengthy career, has Texas St. HC Franchione ever taken his foot off the gas pedal.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Georgia Tech +12 over GEORGIA: I know that Georgia has been playing very well of late, but I just don't feel that they should be nearly a two TD favorite over a Georgia Tech team that has just 2 losses on the year, with neither being by more than 6 points. The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 on the year and 4-1 on the road and have the kind of offense that can both keep the Georgia offense on the sidelines and match Georgia point for point should they need to. The Bulldogs do average 43.3 ppg on the year, but Georgia Tech averages a solid 37.8 ppg and both teams have been solid with the Jackets allowing just 24.1 ppg, while Georgia has allowed just 20.5 ppg. These teams are pretty evenly matched on both sides of the ball, meaning this line is pretty much due to SEC bias. Another factor to look at is the fact that Georgia has been knocked out of the race for the SEC East with Missouri's win yesterday and that squarely should put the motivation more on the side of the Jackets. With the road team 12-3-1 ATS the last 16 in the series I will look for Tech to keep this one close.
Mississippi State / Ole Miss Under 49.5: Ahh SEC Football at its finest. Well at least for me who loves low scoring games. The Mississippi defense comes into this game ranked 1st in the nation in points allowed, giving up just 13.5 ppg and you have to feel they are a bit angry after allowed Arkansas 30 points last week. The Bulldog defense is not as good as the Rebels, but still, they are 12th in the nation in points allowed (18.4 pg) and have allowed just 12.8 ppg in their last 4 games. The Bulldogs have scored 39 ppg this year, but in games vs Alabama and Arkansas, two of the best defenses in the league, they could score just 20 and 17 points. For Ole Miss, their offense has not been great this year and vs the tough defenses they have faced (Alabama, Arkansas and LSU) they were able to just manage 10 ppg. This is the SEC and this is a huge game especially for Mississippi State and I expect both teams to play close to the vest, just like they have in many of their big games this year. The Under is 5-1 the last 6 games played at Mississippi and this one should follow suit, with no more than 42 points being scored.
BEST OF THE REST
Notre Dame / USC Over 61.5: Both teams have nothing to play for right now and i expect both teams to just let it all hang out in this one. The Irish offense has been very solid all year, averaging 34.7 ppg, but it has been their defense that has let them down over the second half of the year as they have allowed a whopping 40.3 ppg in their last 6 games. USC should have a field day in this one, especially since they have averaged 525 ypg and 43 ppg at home this year. The USC defense has been solid overall, but did allowed 38 to UCLA last week, 30 to Cal the week before, 28 to Colorado and 38 to ASU earlier in the year. The will give up points to an Irish offense that has averaged 34.5 ppg on the road. Both teams will get their fair share of points in what should be a shootout.
Clemson / South Carolina Under 54.5: The Clemson offense was clicking earlier in the year, but since QB Watson went down they have really struggled on that side of the ball. He has gotten back on the field sparingly, but just hasn't been the same player he was before he went down and backup QB Cole Stoudt hasn't helped the offense all that much while he has been in there. The Tigers have averaged just 16.8 ppg in their last 5 games and last week they were not able to score at all in the 2nd half vs a horrible Georgia State defense. The Tigers have not needed their offense all that much as their defense has been outstanding, ranking 1st in total yards allowed and 8th in points allowed, giving up just 17.6 ppg, while at home they have allowed just 210.8 ypg and 10.8 ppg. The South Carolina offense has been strong, while their defense has been weak, but still the Tigers have not been in many high scoring games of late due to their conservative style of play and they should play that same way, which will keep the scoring in this one in the 40s.
Jeff Clement
BYU vs. California
Play: California -3.5
BYU(7-4) at California(5-6): BYU has QB Christian Stewart who has passed for 1,829 yards with 17 Td's leading his team to 3 wins in a row and will face off with Jared Goff who has put up big numbers this season with 3,580 yards passing with 31 TD's and only 6 INT's. BYU will be without tailback Jamaal Williams due to injury so this looks to be a shootout in the passing game which Goff will have the edge. California is 5-2 ATS last 7 games against teams with winning records and will need this win to become bowl eligible. BYU is 0-4 ATS last 4 games vs. PAC 12 teams.Prediction: CAL 40 BYU 31.