Rob Vinciletti
Syracuse vs. Boston College
Play: Boston College -12
The Eagles are 5-1 ats as a home favorite with revenge and will look to snap a 3 game home losing streak here against a Syracuse team that has lost 8 of 9 and is 1-12 ats as a road dog when they lose. Losing teams in their last road game that were bowl teams last year and are getting 3 or more points have failed to cover 17 of 19 vs a team with revenge .Boston College is still playing hard and game Florida St a solid game. They are the better team and Syracuse is playing out the string. Take Boston College.
Scott Spreitzer
Wisconsin -14.5
Tough spot for the Golden Gophers, in my opinion. Not only are they banged-up (more on that in a bit) but they're facing a well-rounded Badger defense. Minnesota's offense is one-dimensional, running for 229 yards per game, but they rank 123rd in the passing game. While Wiscy is outstanding against the pass, they're also incredibly stingy against the run, allowing just 97 yards per game, the 5th best run defense in the nation. In fact, they're 2nd in the nation in total yards allowed per game and 4th in scoring defense, allowing just 16 ppg. I mentioned the Gophers are banged-up. RB David Cobb is listed as questionable (hamstring) and even if he plays, he's not nearly 100% healthy. With Wisconsin likely having their way up front on offense, the Gophers will be hard-pressed to keep this one close. I'm laying the points with Wisconsin on Saturday.
Andy Iskoe
Syracuse / Boston College Under 41
Boston College is off of a game effort at Florida State, nearly pulling off the upset, but still playing to finish the regular season 7-5 and await its Bowl bid. Syracuse is 3-8 and ends their season today. The Orange have a nice combination that points towards a low scoring game -- a very weak offense and a fairly decent defense. Boston College does not have a potent offense but does run the football very well, chewing up clock in the process and leading to fewer possessions by both themselves and their opponent over the course of a full game. The defense has improved nicely throughout the season and the Syracuse offense is not likely to offer a severe challenge. Both teams have played to the UNDER greatly -- Syracuse is 9-2 to the UNDER while BC has gone UNDER in 6 of its 10 games with Totals with one of the other games ending in a PUSH. 5 of my 6 key indicators for this matchup -- including all 3 for Syracuse -- point to the UNDER and is supported by my principal score prediction model which suggests this game lands between 34 and 38 total points.
Jim Feist
Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers
Dallas is playing the second of a back to back spot and their 3rd game in 4 nights, a difficult road situational spot. The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Atlantic division and the aging Mavs face a rested 76ers team that is home and hasn't played since Wednesday. The 76ers are winless but not quitting. Philadelphia rallied from a 20-point deficit against Brooklyn in the first half to take the lead early in the fourth quarter, but Anderson and Mirza Teletovic stepped up down the stretch for the Nets. The Sixers still outrebounded Brooklyn 42-40. The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and when these teams meet the underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Golden Retriever
New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders
Pick: New York Islanders
The Devils lost 5 of last 6, they don't play 2 consecutive home games from Nov. 6th till Dec. 17th, that means they need to travel game-by-game for more than one month to a total 20 matchups, you can tell how brutal a schedule like this. Yesterday they were home after Thanksgiving followed by a 4-game western trip, and lose to the Red Wings in a shootout. New York is not too far, but the Devils are head to another 3-game road trip, they gonna take care of families, not the ice.
Kyle Hunter
Notre Dame vs. USC
Play: USC -6½
The USC Trojans were beaten down by UCLA last weekend. The Trojans have a nice rivalry going with Notre Dame as well though, and this game gives USC another chance to finish the season with some positive momentum. The Trojans have been inconsistent this year, but it's clear that this team has the ability to play great football. I think there's a good chance we see USC put together a full game of impressive play here. Notre Dame has lost three games in a row, and the Fighting Irish have really played poorly in all three of those games. Turnovers have consistently been a problem for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish will be without three defensive starters for this game, and that will hurt a lot against a USC offense that has been very good with quarterback Cody Kessler at the helm. I like USC to bounce back from last week's disappointment.
Jack Jones
Oregon State +19
These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest. Obviously, Oregon State (5-6) isn’t having its best season, but you can just ask Arizona State how tough it is to win in Corvallis. The Beavers were 7-point home underdogs to the Sun Devils two weeks ago and came away with a 35-27 victory. They dominated the game as they outgained the Sun Devils by 131 yards in the win.
Oregon State would love nothing more than to ruin Oregon’s bid at a Pac-12 Championship and a spot in the four-team playoff. It also needs one more win to become bowl eligible, so it obviously has plenty to play for here. Couple that with the fact that it has lost six straight in this series, and it is obviously desperate for a victory.
Last year, the Beavers were having a mediocre season similar to this one, and they nearly upset the Ducks in Eugene. They only lost 35-36 as a 24-point road underdog after the Ducks scored with only 29 seconds remaining to win the game. They were also only outgained 545-568 for the game, or by 23 total yards. Sean Mannion threw for 314 yards and two touchdowns, while the rushing attack produced 231 yards and 5.9 per carry in the defeat.
I simply believe the Ducks are overvalued here because they have not only won six straight coming in, but also covered in all six games. Oddsmakers have been forced to set this number much higher than it should be. Asking the Ducks to win by three or more touchdowns to cover the spread is asking too much in a rivalry game like this.
Oregon State certainly has the offense to put up points on this Oregon defense. The Beavers are a primary passing team that averages 62.8% completions, 281 yards per game, and 7.3 per attempt. Oregon has been vulnerable against the pass this season, allowing 62.7% completions, 277 yards per game, and 7.0 per attempt. Mannion should have another big day against this Oregon defense, just as he did in their meeting last year.
Oregon State is 85-53 ATS in its last 138 games after playing two straight conference games. The Beavers are 112-78 ATS after the first month of the season since 1992. I simply believe the Ducks are overvalued here after covering six straight games, while the Beavers are undervalued after failing to cover five of their last six. Their one cover was an upset home win over ASU, and I expect them to give Oregon a run for their money as well.
Dave Price
Idaho +18
After back-to-back big upset wins over Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette, it will be tough for Appalachian State to get up for lowly Idaho. Idaho is off a very disappointing loss to Troy in its home finale, which kept it motivated during its bye week. I expect the Vandals to treat this contest like their bowl game. Idaho may be 1-9, but it has been competitive. Seven of its nine defeats have come by 17 points or less. You want to back road underdogs that returned 17 or more starters off a home loss of 14 points or more. Doing so has produced a 72-35 ATS mark since 1992. Take the points.
Ray Monohan
Georgia Tech +13
This is going to be a fun one in Athens as both teams are enjoying very good seasons. GT is going to run the ball and the Dawgs are going to run it right back at them. Whichever team does it better wins. My hunch is that UGA will get the W but the Yellow Jackets can keep this one nice and close. They should be super motivated because if they run the table they can dream about playoffs for a little bit.
Jimmy Boyd
Ole Miss +3
The Rebels may appear to be down for the count after last week’s ugly loss to Arkansas, but I fully expect this team to bounce back with an inspired effort at home against the Bulldogs. It’s certainly going to make it easier to get motivated against a big in-state rival, especially with what’s at stake for Mississippi State. The Rebels would love nothing more than to spoil the Bulldogs hopes of getting into the playoff and potentially winning a national championship.
One thing I like about Ole Miss is they have nothing to lose in this one and that makes them a dangerous team. Mississippi State on the other hand has a tremendous amount of pressure on them and a lot of teams really struggle in this spot. Almost every season a team with everything on the line fails to play up to their potential in this exact scenario.
It certainly doesn’t look good for the Ole Miss offense after getting shutout by Arkansas, but the Razorbacks are a dangerous team. Keep in mind they nearly went on the road and upset Mississippi State a few weeks back. It’s also worth nothing that the Rebels were done in by 6 turnovers, as they actually outgained the Razorbacks on the game 316 to 311.
The Ole Miss offense should have a much easier time moving the ball in the comforts of their home stadium in what's a good matchup for them. The Rebels are built around senior quarterback Bo Wallace and the passing attack and they will be facing a Mississippi State defense that ranks 116th in the country against the pass (281.4 ypg).
The Rebels also have the talent defensively to slow down Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs high-powered offensive attack. Ole Miss comes in ranked 1st in the country in scoring defense (13.5 ppg) and 10th in total defense (309.9 ypg). They are also 12th in the country against the pass (179.0 ypg).
The Rebels are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games against teams who average 250 or more passing yards/game and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss by more than 20 points. These two trends combine to form a 70% (39-17) system in favor of the Rebels.
Ben Burns
Dallas vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
Give the Mavericks credit for last night's victory. Beating a red-hot Toronto team in its own building was no small feat. However, this is a tough spot.
Dallas fought hard to win last night and is now playing its third game in four days. Philly comes in fresh, having had the past two days off.
True, the 76'ers are one of the league's worst teams. That doesn't mean they can't provide value, at times, though.
A closer look reveals that six of the 76'ers' last seven home games were decided by 12 or fewer points.
Going back to the Mavs' schedule again, this is more than just a typical b2b or three in four situation. This is also their sixth game in the past nine days and their 14th game since 11/6. (By comparison, this will be Philadelphia's 11th game, during that stretch.)
Given their difficult schedule, I feel it may be easy for the Mavs to look past a non-playoff team from the East, one they already destroyed at Dallas. Consider grabbing the points.
DAVE COKIN
HAWAII AT FRESNO STATE
PLAY: HAWAII +11
This is a big game for Fresno State. The Bulldogs will win their division of the Mountain West with a victory against Hawaii. But going with the team that appears to have more incentive is not necessarily a recipe for success. Just ask those who backed Marshall and/or Colorado State on Friday. One was a massive favorite and lost on its home field in one of the most insane games of the year. The other couldn’t beat a team missing its two key offensive backfield stars. Must win doesn’t always mean will win. So if your reason for considering Fresno State has much to do with the importance of the game, that might not be the best train of thought.
I’ll also try to make a case for this game meaning plenty to Hawaii as well. Technically, if everything broke right, the Warriors could actually still win the division, although that’s not anything more than a massive long shot. But if there’s any thought of Hawaii mailing it in today, here are a couple of items to consider.
First off, this has a very good chance to be the last game Norm Chow coaches at Hawaii and perhaps anyplace at all. His wife became very ill earlier in the season and while she has thankfully made a great recovery, the belief from those supposedly in the know is that Chow is strongly considering calling it a day, particularly when the off the field matters are concerned. There’s also the state of the Hawaii program. The joke on the islands right now is that the media guys covering the team are bringing home better paychecks than some of the assistant coaches. In other words, if you think UNLV has problems with its football program, what’s happening at Hawaii is apparently worse.
Yet this Warriors team is actually playing some okay football down the stretch. They’re improved since the return of Joey Iosefa, who’s a very talented running back. They’ve managed to win two straight, albeit the nod last week vs. UNLV was mostly thanks to some dubious officiating. But in truth this team has really only been blown out twice, once by Utah State and also at Colorado State. In other words, Hawaii is 4-8, but is really just a few plays away from being a .500 team.
Fresno State has gotten the offense in gear down the stretch, and they’re going to out up points here. The one real caveat here is that the Bulldogs are off what was without question their best single game of the current season as they dod a number on Nevada in Reno. But this not a powerhouse by any stretch, and all one needs do is to take a quick glance at the point differential to realize that.
I expect a major effort by Hawaii in this game. The players really like Coach how, and if this is curtains for his great career, those guys are not going to mail it in today. The pressure is squarely on Fresno State, which needs a win for the division title and for bowl eligibility. Teams that go into a game knowing all they need to do is win the game often get into play not to lose mentality and when that happens, it’s a major red flag. I think we get a competitive game in Fresno today, and I’m going to go ahead with a play on Hawaii plus the double digits.
Harry Bondi
MISSISSIPPI (+3) over Mississippi State
We'll take the home dog here in the most important Egg Bowl in the history of the series. Mississippi State comes in with all of the pressure since they need a win to have any chance of going to the SEC Championship or the NCAA Playoffs. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has nothing to lose here and we're getting some value here since just three weeks ago it was the Rebels who were a 3-point favorite. Despite Mississippi's recent struggles this is still a team that is outstanding against the run, allowing 3.3 yards per rush and just 12.2 points per game at home this season. The best two run defenses the Bulldogs saw this year were Arkansas and Alabama and they were held to 17 and 20 points respectively in those games. Ole Miss is 2-0 as a dog this year and 10-4 the last three seasons when getting points.
Bob Balfe
Florida State -7
Florida’s big highlight this season came in their win against Georgia. That was so impressive on their part, but you got to show me a little more because for the most part this team has been downright awful this year. FSU has been nothing to write home about either, but Winston is a winner on the football field. Off of the football field he is the complete opposite. This FSU team is so close to another title and they have been on alert all season long. This game nor any other game have they looked ahead because they just don’t have the same talent from last year. Florida has a very good defense, but today I believe you will see the Noles best offensive performance running behind that experienced offensive line. Florida is limited in what they can do on offense and when the final whistle blows the Noles should have won this game by double digits. Take Florida State.
Washington -3
How many times do you see a team put up over 700 yards passing and then again over 600 yards passing and lose those games. Mike Leach was a genius ten years ago, but his time has come and gone. The game has changed and I compare him to Rex and Rob Ryan in the NFL. You can only live off your accomplishments for so long. This Washington State team which never runs the ball now has a backup QB in the game which is really going to slow down this offense. Washington is a balanced team and they have the more dominate players on the line of scrimmage today. Peterson is the much better coach and they should get a big road win here. Take Washington.
Chip Chirimbes
Washington at Washington State
Pick: Washington State +3.5
The Huskies seem like an awfully small favorite against this Cougars club that has dropped five of their last six. Washington became bowl eligible last week with their win over Oregon State but the lead the nation with 31 fumbles and have converted only seven touchdowns in their 22 red-zone opportunities. State has freshmen Luke Falk who has thrown for 10 touchdowns the last three games replacing the injured Connor Holiday. Note that the underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.