Triple Threat Sports
Miami, Fla (-) over Pitt
We honestly thought this line was going to be UM -6 or so, and we were all set to jump on anything less than seven. We still like it at -9', but the bigger than expected line shows us that Vegas saw what we saw - namely that the Canes were in a letdown spot last week and are now returning home where they have been dominant against teams other than Florida State this season. For their part, Pitt had a nice result last week against Syracuse, but the Orange were shutting between two QB's and seemed to be going through the motions a bit - something that a Canes team off two losses should not do here. We will lay the points in this one.
ASA
Ole Miss +3
The last time these two rivals met and were both ranked was 15 years ago and both still have plenty to play for. MSU is playing for a spot in the Playoffs while Ole’Miss would like nothing better than to spoil that opportunity. Mississippi has one of the best defenses in all college football and lead the nation in scoring defense allowing just 13.5PPG. They beat themselves last weekend when they turned the ball over 6 times in a loss to Arkansas. That’s what makes this wager so attractive. A top level team, off a loss playing their biggest rival. Didn’t you wonder why this line was so low to begin with? The oddsmakers are begging bettors to back the Bulldogs but we won’t bite and neither should you. The home team has dominated this rivalry by winning 9 of the last 10 meetings covering 5 of the last 6. Ole Miss a rock solid 8-3 ATS off a loss of 20+ points.
River City Sharps
Louisiana Tech -7
Playing against Rice on the road has been a really profitable angle and we think we have another nice spot on Saturday as they travel to Louisiana Tech. We are getting Tech off a really, really disappointing loss at Old Dominion last week and Rice comes into this contest winners in six of their last seven games. While Rice has enjoyed good ATS numbers vs Tech historically, we think this is a really bad spot for the owls. The Tech defense has been tremendous, allowing just 15.7 ppg at home this season while they are scoring 42 ppg. That’s going to be a real problem for a Rice defense that has trouble getting off the field at times. The Bulldogs have been tremendous against the better teams on their schedule, going 19-9 against the number vs. teams with a winning record. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. You also have the motivation of winning the C-USA Western Division and we get an angry Tech team at home. We believe they take care of business and cover this number.
Dave Essler
Wake Forest +18.5
I think Duke has lost their mojo lately. Losing outright at home to V-Tech was bad, but getting crushed by North Carolina is worse. Duke'd defense just isn't that good, and honestly, Wake's defense is for real. I doubt Wake will win this game, but losing by three touchdowns doesn't seem very likely. Duke has nothing really to play for, except maybe a better bowl game and with another victory a ten win season, but that's a far cry from their aspirations only three weeks ago when they had at the very least a legit shot at the ACC Title game. Two weeks ago Wake played badly and lost at NC State (but they did score!) but the two games before that were winnable. They were tied at the half against Clemson, and made a valiant comeback against BC that just feel short. Then fast forward to last week when they got the 2OT win over V-Tech, and shut them out for four quarters. For all the ineptness that people think is V-Tech's offense, it's only been down the stretch they couldn't score. They were fine early, if you remember, they beat Ohio State. Perhaps an blip on the screen as OSU was losing Miller, but nevertheless shutting out a Hokie team that beat the Buckeyes and put up tons on G-Tech and North Carolina, THEN went to DUKE and lost by ONE, 17-16, just says that +18.5 is probably too many points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Michigan +21 over OHIO STATE
Known as nothing other than "The Game", Ohio State and Michigan could have the greatest rivalry in all of sports. Let's forget the superlatives and get to the bottom of it. This is an intense affair and it is known for producing classic gridiron battles between two teams that love to hate each other. Even in what is conceived as a rather pale edition of this rivalry, there are still high stakes for both clubs. For Ohio State, it is the ability to retain their top-10 ranking and potentially sneak in to the college football playoff as a Big 10 champion. For Michigan, a win would cement a disappointing season and earn the Wolverines a bowl bid at 6-6. We’re not suggesting that the Wolverines are going to win but don’t be surprised to see them stay well within this range. The disrespect shown in the point spread that every player is aware of, as deserved as it may be, is also a huge motivating factor for the Wolverines.
The Wolverines literally have nothing to lose. If they lose they will finish 5-7 and once again fall victim to their hated foe. However, if they were to win, it would cap off a disparaging season with an exclamation point and earn them a postseason bid that seemed almost impossible to earn. For senior quarterback Devin Gardner and wide receiver Devin Funchess, who is likely to depart for the NFL, this is their last hurrah. Both men recall last year's one point defeat where the Wolverines would fail on a two-point conversion in Ann Arbor in the closing stages of the match. A year has gone by but the wound is still fresh and for the many other seniors it is still very much ingrained in their spirits. Ohio State was nearly on the ropes last week against Indiana until they were saved by the play of freshman phenom Jalin Marshall, who would literally score four times to finally get the Buckeyes in the lead. A rivalry of this nature is no place for an overlay, as the Wolverines proved last year when they were 17-point dogs and lost by a point. We’ll take the points again.
Minnesota +14½ over WISCONSIN
Minnesota pulled off an impressive feat in Lincoln, Nebraska last weekend. The Golden Gophers managed to piece together a double-digit comeback with the absence of star running back David Cobb, winning the contest 28-24. Minnesota relied on efficient quarterback play and a stellar defensive performance in the latter stages of the second half, stifling a very potent Cornhuskers attack. Nebraska employs a similar style of offense to that of Wisconsin, as they focus primarily on feeding their stallion running back Amir Abdullah and then establishing a vertical threat off an established run game. However, Minnesota completely disrupted the ‘Huskers offense and will likely employ similar tactics to foster success against a Wisconsin team that relies heavily on the legs of Heisman candidate Melvin Gordon. Gordon, may be the best running back in America and he has certainly provided sufficient evidence to support such a claim. However, Minnesota has a very astute coaching stuff, led by Jerry Kill. Kill has transformed the culture in Minnesota and has evolved the Golden Gophers in to a Big 10 power.
The Badgers have scored from 31 to 49 points in 12 of the past 13 meetings with Minnesota and have held Paul Bunyan's Axe since reclaiming it in 2004. However, like last year, this year could produce one of the series' lower-scoring affairs, as both teams rank among the nation's leaders in time of possession and red zone defense. Our records go back only to 1976 but this is the third-largest site-adjusted price on this matchup since at least then, despite Minnesota fielding what might be its best team in that span. There are certainly plenty of incentives to play for on Minnesota's end and with a significant margin to cover we'll bite at a number this size.
MISSISSIPPI +130 over Mississippi State
This could very likely be one of the most significant editions of "The Egg Bowl" in recent history. It is a sensational notion to think that both participants are ranked, and both belligerents could have potentially produced a top-10 showdown had the Rebels not fallen to Arkansas 30-0 last Saturday. The Egg Bowl will be played in Oxford, Ole Miss's backyard. In a rivalry game of this nature, home field advantage plays a huge part. In fact, in the last 10 years, the home team has won 9 out of 10. It is understandable why the market favors the Bulldogs here. MSU has had a remarkable 10-1 season thus far. They hold a #4 ranking and can win the SEC West if Auburn were to defeat Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Furthermore, a win for Mississippi State gives them a quality opportunity to enter the College Football Playoff as a wildcard team and provide them the chance to play for a national championship.
For Mississippi, the incentive to win is entirely different. For them, this is all about pride. The Rebels were eliminated from the West Division race and from a College Football Playoff bid after they suffered last week's thumping at the hands of the then red-hot Arkansas Razorbacks. After Ole Miss’s dreams were crushed, it’s easy to assume that the Bulldogs will run the Rebels out of Vaughn-Hemingway Stadium. However, Mississippi State's sole defeat came on the road, in a hostile environment against Alabama. Up until a few weeks ago, the Rebels were the talk of their town, known for their vaunted "Landshark" defense. The Rebels defeated this very same Alabama team in Oxford. The Rebels lost only once at home and it was a rather bizarre loss that probably should not have occurred. The defeat came as a direct result of star receiver Laquan Treadwell breaking his leg and fumbling the football in the final stages of the match, as he was about to score the game winning touchdown against Auburn. A win for Mississippi will summarize an excellent season and avenge the adversities they were forced to endure. So, what we have here is a highly ranked and motivated visitor laying small points on the road and that’s an angle we often play against because of the premium you must play to wager on the favorite. Ole Miss is a juggernaut at home and although the points are tempting, we’ll play them outright because there is too much value not to.
Don Best Consensus
Baylor at Texas Tech
Pick: Baylor
BAY are 20-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall. Texas Tech's defense ranks #122 nationally allowing 40ppg. With Baylor's average at 50ppg they should have no trouble putting up a huge number in this one. Everyone thinks of Baylor as a shootout type of team, and they do play some shootouts, but their defense is quietly #26 in the nation allowing just 21.7ppg. More than capable of getting the 2-3 stops needed for this to be a 20 point game by halftime. Look for the Bears to come out strong on a fast track at AT&T stadium.
Brandon Shively
Fairfield vs. Northeastern
Play: Northeastern -11½
I like Northeastern to rebound off their terrible loss vs. UMASS with a dominating win vs. a poor Fairfield team this Saturday. Through 4 games, Northeastern is shooting 46.6% from the floor and 44% from 3 PT line. They are shooting free throws at 80% as well, and this is a well balanced team. They also beat a better than advertised Manhattan team 65-51 on a neutral. This will be their first home game of the season and I am looking for this experienced team to get a BLOWOUT WIN. Northeastern returns all 5 starters from last year's team and have the strongest 7 man rotation in the Colonial Conference. They have the CAA Defensive player of the year that finished in the Top 50 in the NCAA in 6 categories last year. He can do a little bit of everything and this year he is leading the team with 15 ppg/6.5 rpg/ 1.5 bpg. Northeastern also has two other guys that are averaging 6 rebounds a game in Ford and Stahl. Stahl is their 2nd best defender and is a tough guy that gets after loose balls. Quincy Ford is their most dynamic player and at 6'8", he is a mismatch that is shooting 45% from 3 PT range this year. Ford struggled vs. UMass, but he will get his shine on vs. the smaller forwards of Fairfield today. Against UMass, they were never in the game. I will also note that UMass is a much better than advertised team this season after watching them play.
For Fairfield, they are terrible. Sure, they bring back 4 starters but this is a team that got beat by 50 vs. Duke, only scored 36 points vs. Wofford, and lost by 14 to Sam Houston State. This is still a young Fairfield team as they have no seniors on the roster and I think experience will play a big part in this game. Fairfield might be a decent play when they get in conference play as an underdog, but not today.
I usually do not lay double digits in College Basketball, but I think the situation favors Northeastern today. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points and Fairfield is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win.
Ken Thomson
Oregon St. +19
I'll just put it this way.....talent wise-speed wise...Oregon should win by 30.....but this is the Civil War and weird crap happens, especially in Corvallis! The PAC-12 needs Oregon and the refs know a Berth in the Final Four rides with the Ducks...but the Football Gods don't give a DAM!! Beavers hang in there if Sean Mannion's passing and the running game with Storm Woods excels! The loss of fellow RB Terron Ward hurts but Woods is good enough to shoulder the load. Meanwhile Oregon is still beat up on the O-Line and Mike Riley will be dialing up pressure all day on Mariota. If the Beavs can keep the crowd in it early this game could be a one possession contest!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Kansas / Kansas State Under 51.5: The Kansas State defense rates as one of the better in the Big 12, as they have allowed just 21 ppg overall, including just 15.2 ppg at home. They should have no problems keeping this popgun attack of Kansas under wraps in this one. For the year the Jayhawks have averaged just 335.7 ypg and 18.23 ppg, but on the road those numbers dip to 246.8 ypg and 11.8 ppg. Very hard to see them reaching double figures in this one. The Wildcat offense has been solid at home putting up 40.5 ppg, but I don't really see them hitting that number, even though the Jayhawks have allowed 42 ppg on the road. They know they don't have to do a whole lot to win this game and they will play it as such. Both teams are primarily running teams and that will keep the clock moving. and with just 1 team being able to score I just don't see a game with more than 42 points being scored. 35-7 sounds about right.
BEST OF THE REST
LOUISVILLE -12 over Kentucky: I know the Cardinals are off a big road win over Notre Dame, but I don't expect a letdown here, as they will be taking on their biggest rival of the the year and a win here would probably net them a better bowl invite. Te Cats had a good start to their year and at times really showed tat they are improved, but they have lost 5 in a row, been outscored 113-47 in their last 2 games and have been outscored by 25.3 ppg on the road this year. The Cats have allowed 43.8 ppg in their last 5 games and they will be taking on a healthy Louisville offense that has scored 32.5 ppg in their last 4 games. The Cats have averaged just 14.8 ppg on the road, while Louisville has allowed just 18.7 ppg overall and 20.8 ppg at home. No way the Cats score enough here to keep this one close.
Larry Ness
Florida vs. Florida State
Pick: Florida
Florida State rolled over opponents into the BCS championship game in 2013 and escaped with a thrilling win over Auburn. FSU was a consensus preseason No. 1 but while the Seminoles have still not lost in 2014 (11-0, giving them a 27-game winning streak), this year’s team has been not nearly as dominant as the 2013 version. FSU is scoring 35.5 PPG (down from 51.6 last year) and allowing 22.3 PPG (up from 12.1 LY). Winston was the Heisman winner last year (40-10 ratio / 10.57 YPA) but he’s got a 20-13 ratio this year with a 8.49 YPA. The one constant has been the Seminoles remain unbeaten.
If a team WANTS one thing to be constant, choosing “winning” is not a bad option. The Seminoles remain the only undefeated team from a Power 5 conference and now faces Florida in a regular-season finale that carries the emotion of a fierce rivalry, plus the added variable of being coach Will Muschamp's final game as the head of the Gators. "We're going into battle," Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher said. "These games are going to be dogfights. People are going to try and be the one that knocks us out, knocks us off, got nothing to lose. Every time you're in those situations you learn."
Florida State (No. 1 in the AP but No. 3 in the CFP) has been criticized all season for the manner in which it continues to win games. A 43-3 win against Wake Forest has been the only 20-point win against a FBS team. The Seminoles have trailed in the second half against FIVE teams and needed a FG with three seconds remaining to defeat Boston College, just last Saturday. Louisville jumped out to a 21-0 lead, N.C. State led 24-7, Clemson pushed FSU to overtime and Notre Dame had a game-winning TD called back in the final moments because of a penalty.
The Seminoles remain unbeaten but the above is why two one-loss teams are ahead of Florida State in the College Football Playoff rankings, even though FSU has won 27 consecutive games. Jimbo Fisher has won THREE of four games against Florida since he took over the program but maybe it’s only fitting that the lone loss was the last time the Seminoles have lost, period. Florida came to Tallahassee and posted a 37-26 victory back on Nov 24, 2012. The 2012 season will the lone highlight of Will Muschamp’s tenure at Florida, one which comes to an end at the end of this season.
Florida is bowl eligible (6-4) this season but finished 4-8 in 2013, missing the postseason for the first time since 1990. Athletic director Jeremy Foley fired Muschamp last week, who agreed to coach the final two games. "Obviously it's going to be a different atmosphere for the Gators," FSU quarterback Jameis Winston said. "They beat Georgia, so they feel like they can beat anybody, and we're going to be ready. We're going to be prepared."
No defense has really been able to stop Jameis Winston and the Seminoles’ passing attack but teams have frustrated him with blitzes and limited the Seminoles’ time with the ball, with Boston College being the latest in a long line of “close-but-no-cigar” opponents. The Gators were able to beat Georgia by staying on the field for 32:41 and rushing for 418 yards. Winning the time of possession in this one, just may give the Gators a “puncher’s chance.” FSU likely finds a way to win but just maybe....
I’m taking the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Harvard -7 Over UMass
Played at the First Niagara Center in Buffalo. The Minutemen are coming off a terrific 24-9 season a year ago and a #6 seed at the Big Dance. UMass lost in the first round of that tournament but that’s not all they lost. It was also the end of Chaz Williams' career in Amherst, and with it his team-highs of 15.6 PPG, 6.9 assists per game and 1.6 steals per game. Also missing from the squad are Sampson Carter and Raphael Putney, who combined for nearly 20 points and over 10 rebounds per game. Derrick Gordon has been called upon to be the primary option in the backcourt. He is a solid finisher but he does not shoot well from the free-throw line and took just four shots from beyond the arc all last season. Trey Davis is the next man up at point guard and has become a starter after playing only 9.2 minutes per game in 33 contests in 2013-14. The Minutemen are off to a 5-1 start but they have played a bunch of nobodies, including Manhattan, who they defeated in OT. UMass will now play its fourth game in seven days and they’re getting a little too much credit because of their fine season a year ago and strong start this season. Now the Minutemen will be truly tested
Harvard has played just four games. They’re just 3-1 and even lost to Holy Cross. As a 10½-point choice over Houston earlier this week, the Crimson won by 19 but they were expected to win rather easily so that victory didn’t raise any eyebrows. We suggested that Harvard was underpriced in that game and we’re suggesting the same thing here. The Crimson are a true power. They are loaded with big men and one of the best backcourt duos in the entire country. Harvard is just warming up but you can expect this well-balanced outfit to be ranked in the top-25 this season because they really are that good. If they were ranked now, they would be about an 11-point choice over the Minutemen and so there is still some value on them going forward. We’ll continue to play the Crimson in spots like this, as they are a remarkable 20-8 ATS run and we don’t envision that coming to an end here.
Chase Diamond
Mississippi St vs. Mississippi
Play:Mississippi +3
This game features the 10-1 Mississippi State at 8-3 Ole Miss. Ole Miss should have beaten Auburn and since there star wide out went do with a injury before crossing the goal line alot of air was let out of the Rebels balloons as they then lost to Arkansas 30-0. This game means everything the the Rebels and losing at home is not a option expect the crowd to be insane today at home. Ole Miss plays the same type of Defense as Alabama a team they were beaten by earlier this year. The public is all over the road Mississippi State team at a rate of 80% this line opened at a PK and has sky rocketed due to public backing. Lot's of value here as I see Ole Miss winning out rite but take the points for a 10* winner.
Bruce Marshall
Coll Of Charleston at West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia
It looks as if Bob Huggins has quickly put the pieces back together in Morgantown, as evidenced by a recent impressive romp in the Puerto Rico Tip-off (when defending national champ UConn was whipped in the finale). "Huggy" already getting plenty of mileage from Fs Jonathan Holton and Elijah Macon, both ineligible a season ago, while former Dayton transfer PG Juwan Staten (15.8 ppg) and PF Devin Williams (14 pgp) are an established outside-inside scoring combo, and Chicago product frosh PG Jevon Carter is providing little drop-off whenever Staten needs to take a breather.
Wunderdog
Georgia State @ IUPUI
Pick: Georgia State -11
Georgia State has won three straight following a sweep of three games at the CBE Hall of Fame Classic in Rochester, MI. The Panthers are shooting 51.7% from the floor this season, #17th in CBB. Georgia State is also knocking down 44.6% from three-point range, #16 in the nation, averaging 80.0 points per game. Georgia State is 4-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. IUPUI has a losing record and is coming off a loss to Drake on Tuesday. The Jaguars are 15-37 ATS in their last 52 home games, and are 8-20 ATS in non-conference games. And when IUPUI faces a team with a winning record they are 9-24 ATS. Lay the points on Georgia State.
The Real Animal
Minnesota / Wisconsin Over 50
7-for-7. The ‘OVER’ is 7-0 the last seven meetings in Wisconsin between Minnesota and the Badgers. Wisconsin has scored 59 and 52 points in their last two home games. Minnesota has scored at least 24 points in their last eight games. Both of these teams can really tote the rock. Wisconsin is #3 in the country while Minnesota is #25. The Badgers’ defense might be slipping a bit allowing 24 points in each of their last two games. I’m kind of a sucker for Wisconsin ‘OVER’ at home. Then again the Badgers are averaging 46.8 points in Madison and the ‘OVER’ is 4-1 this year so it’s justified. This team is 54-33 ‘OVER’ as a home favorite in their last 77. Minnesota very deep at RB despite David Cobb because listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.