Vegas Butcher
Milwaukee Bucks -2
The Rockets are playing without Howard, Beverley, and Jones, 3 starters. And it’s beginning to show. Yesterday this team shot 39% from the field and Harden continued to struggle with his efficiency. In addition, both Harden and Ariza played 38 minutes and fatigue could be an issue today. Bucks played last night as well, but they had an easy win and nobody logged in more than 27 minutes. Milwaukee has the 6th ranked D, they are deeper than Houston, and of course they’re at home for this one. I expect another tough game for the Rockets here. They’ve overachieved without Howard/Beverley in the last week or so, but I think the absence of those key players is catching up to them now.
Utah Jazz +5.5
This is LA’s 7th straight road game, and the last road game of this long trip. They’re also on a b2b and 3in4 spot, while Utah had 2-days off. With the Clippers already being 5-1 on this road-trip, the focus might not be there tonight in addition to fatigue. Utah is trying to end their 4-game losing streak so I would expect a little more effort out of them.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +157 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The Rangers look much sharper now than they did for the first 4½ weeks of the season but in this price range, they offer up no value whatsoever. Still, we can’t pass up this price on the Flyers because they are better than their record suggests, making them very worthy of a play here.
The Flyers are going bad with just one win over their last eight games and that lone win came against the struggling Blue Jackets. The Flyers have also lost twice to the Rangers over the past 10 days by scores of 2-0 and 3-0. That said, they Flyers were not outplayed in either game. Both were close and the difference was goaltending, as it so often is. Philly is very unlikely to be held scoreless again for the third time in 10 days against this familiar enemy. The Flyers are simply too loaded offensively to keep getting shut out. Philadelphia’s top two lines are as good or damn close to any in the league but because the Flyers haven’t had much “puck luck” this season, they remain grossly undervalued. The Flyers have issues in net but they have cut way down on scoring chances allowed. In a recent game against the Wild, Philly dominated play and even held a 25-8 shots advantage at one point but still lost 3-2. In a recent game against the Islanders, they lost 1-0. Even last night, they held the Rangers to just 24 shots on net and still lost 3-0. This is a good team with a poor record and if they can get some decent goaltending, they’ll win their fair share of games. Price sometimes dictates the play and we can’t refuse this one on this very hungry pup.
St. Louis +113 over MINNESOTA
OT included. Both teams played an OT game last night. Minnesota went into Dallas, built a 3-0 lead before blowing it and eventually won it in OT. Minnesota is a decent team but they’re very unlikely to score much against the Blues and its goaltending is a huge issue. The Wild can’t go far this year with their current duo of goalies. Darcy Kuemper has been yanked more than any goaltender in the league thus far and Niklas Backstrom (tonight’s likely starter) might be worse. Backstrom is 38 years old. He’s appeared in seven games this year and has posted save percentages of .875, .873, .824 and .864 in four of those seven games. He came on in relief of Kuemper in his last appearance and shutout the Kings but only faced 12 shots. In two other games, he faced 22 and 17 shots respectively.
St. Louis needed OT to defeat the Oilers last night but that is one of this year’s most misleading scores. St. Louis looked like they had a 60-minute power-play last night, holding an offensive time of possession advantage of 62% to 9% and outshooting the Oilers 41-16. St. Louis has defeated Minnesota in nine of the past 10 games. The only game they lost over that span was last April when they outshot the Wild 45-15. Fact is, they dominate this team over and over there is no way we’re passing up a tag on the Blues against Backstrom. Kuemper or anyone else.
Calgary +108 over ARIZONA
OT included. The Coyotes have dropped four of five with only win over that span occurring against the Sharks in a game they were outshot 43-25. Of all the teams in the NHL, Arizona might have the worst collection of talent. The current roster boasts just four players who have been drafted since Don Maloney took over as GM in 2007: forward Mikkel Boedker (2008), defensemen Michael Stone (2008), Brandon Gormley (2010) and Connor Murphy (2011). The low number is a product of many things, including a smaller scouting staff and budget while the team was searching for an ownership group, poor talent evaluations and draft selections over the years. They are also weak in net and now the finger pointing has begun. There is the blame-Mike-Smith camp, the blame-Keith-Yandle camp, the blame-Dave-Tippett camp, the blame-Don-Maloney-camp and the blame-ownership camp. Frankly, we couldn’t care less who is to blame so once again we’ll back the most disrespected team in the NHL.
All Calgary does is play hard, score goals and win games. The Flames have played the sixth toughest schedule in the NHL and already have wins over Chicago, Montreal, Nashville (twice), Anaheim, San Jose and Winnipeg among others. They are one of three teams that have not lost consecutive games in regulation time this year. Calgary has won five of its last seven. Over that span they lost to Chicago and Anaheim, both by one goal with the loss to the Ducks occurring in extra time. We keep playing this team and we’ll continue to play them as long as their wrongly priced. Calgary should not be a pooch against weak teams like the Coyotes because their chances of winning are far greater than their chances of losing.
Bryan Power
Dallas vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
The winless (0-15) Sixers aren't likely to have forgotten what happened the last time they faced Dallas. The result was a horrifying 53-point loss on the road. Still looking for that elusive first win, I think they're worth a shot plus the big number tonight at home....
The Mavs are in letdown mode following an outright win in Toronto last night, 106-102 as four-point pups. Undeniably, this is a good team at 12-5 SU, but they lost outright their last time in the second night of back to backs. With two days off before another road game (at Chicago), I just don't see Dallas taking this game that seriously, particularly given what happened the last time they met. The offense averages 14 PPG less on the road. The line for that last meeting was 13, roughly the same as it is here despite the change in venue.
The Sixers covered the L2 times they were DD dogs and only lost by eight to Brooklyn their last time out. As long as they remain winless, you know you're at least going to get effort as no player wants to lose every game. The team is on a 6-1 ATS run as a home dog of +12.5 or more. Take the points.
OC Dooley
Ole Miss +3
This is one of the many rivalries dotting the college football landscape as the regular season winds down but it involves a very unusual handicapping situation that has me gladly "taking" points with the home underdog. Today marks only the third time in FIFTY-SEVEN YEARS that the in-state matchup known as the Egg Bowl has featured both schools with national Top-25 rankings. In the case of Mississippi State they still have a shot at being in the top four of the inaugural College Playoff system. But the fact of the matter is both sides have the same number of ATS triumphs (7) and in this series the HOME team has won at a resounding 9-1 clip spanning the past decade. It seems like an eternity since Ole Miss started off both 7-0 SU/ATS and long term when coming off a sloppy effort (3+ turnovers committed) they have COVERED the spread at a "9-2" clip in the following outing which indicates excellent coaching