Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 3

DUNKEL INDEX

Charlotte at Dallas
The Mavericks look to bounce back from their 113-94 loss to Utah and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games following a SU defeat of more than 10 points. Dallas is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mavericks favored by 17. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-9 1/2)

Game 501-502: Boston at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 126.097; Washington 117.392
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 8 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 6; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-6); Under

Game 503-504: Sacramento at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.537; Indiana 119.583
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 8 1/2; 192
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+8 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Denver at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 117.587; Miami 135.802
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 18; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 9; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-9); Under

Game 507-508: Toronto at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 112.660; Brooklyn 117.629
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6; 193
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+6); Over

Game 509-510: New Orleans at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.611; Chicago 126.637
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 11; 179
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 9; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-9); Under

Game 511-512: Portland at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 113.546; Houston 116.847
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 3 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 5 1/2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+5 1/2); Over

Game 513-514: Charlotte at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 102.556; Dallas 119.573
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 17; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 9 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-9 1/2); Under

Game 515-516: Utah at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 121.158; San Antonio 125.465
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+7 1/2); Over

Game 517-518: Cleveland at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 111.027; Milwaukee 116.590
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 5 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 6 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6 1/2); Over

Game 519-520: Golden State at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 114.010; LA Clippers 124.033
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10; 192
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-8 1/2); Under

CFL

Saskatchewan at BC
The Roughriders look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games in November. Saskatchewan is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+3 1/2

Game 495-496: Montreal at Winnipeg (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 112.012; Winnipeg 113.451
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 1 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Montreal by 1; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+1); Under
Game 497-498: Saskatchewan at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 115.390; BC 116.187
Dunkel Line: BC by 1; 52
Vegas Line: BC by 3 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+3 1/2); Over

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Syracuse vs. Cincinnati
Pick: CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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You have to give credit to Syracuse for what it has done the last two weeks. The Orange destroyed Connecticut last Friday and then pulled out a huge come-from-behind win over South Florida this past Saturday. They hit the road once again and are actually getting fewer points this week against a team that is a lot stronger than the Bulls. Syracuse is now 4-4 on the year so a bowl game is back in the picture but this begins the stretch of three straight games against top quality opponents.
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The Bearcats opened the season at 5-0 but they have dropped their last two games. A loss at Toledo two weeks ago was inexcusable and then a loss at Louisville this past Thursday night hurt their chances of a possible Big East title. They had their chances to snag both of those games but just fell short and now they return home for the first of three home games in their next four where they are a perfect 5-0 on the season. The road team has won by 17, 24 and 21 points the last three meetings but that comes to an end here.
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With the last two games taking place on the road, Cincinnati should be hungry to rebound with a big win at home. Looking past Syracuse is no longer an option and with the Orange on a two-game winning streak, it definitely will not happen. The Bearcats were held to their lowest yardage output at Louisville last week as they gained just 353 yards which was 114.5 ypg less than what they were averaging coming into that game. Expect a big turnaround this week.
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Syracuse has played above average in both total offense and total defense as it is ranked 24th and 40th respectively but the problem had been translating those into points. The Orange are just 72nd in scoring offense and 53rd in scoring defense and it comes down to turnovers where they are 103rd in the nation in turnover margin. Cincinnati meanwhile is allowing just over 19 ppg on the season which is 23rd in the country so even if the Orange do move the ball, don't expect to see much scoring.
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Going back to the turnovers, Syracuse did not commit a single turnover in its last two games but that doesn't bode well going forward as it is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after two consecutive game where it committed no turnovers. Also, the Orange are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games on the road as underdogs of seven points or less while Cincinnati is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games a home favorite between 3.5 and seven points. The Bearcats bounce back in a big way here.

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Connecticut vs. South Florida
Pick: ConnecticutFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This looks like a tough spot to ask the Bulls to win by more than a touchdown. South Florida is off an absolute heartbreaker against Syracuse on Saturday, losing 37-36. The Bulls led that game by a score of 23-3 at halftime. They were still winning with less than five seconds remaining in the game until the Orange reached the end zone at the 3-second mark.
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While the Bulls are surely more talented than their 2-6 record suggests, those type of losses can be difficult to immediately bounce back from, particularly when a team hasn't won for many weeks. The Bulls, who have now dropped six straight, were that close to getting the monkey off their back, only to have the win taken from them. This, after the Bulls had blown a late lead against Louisville the previous game. Again, that's a tough pill to swallow.
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The Huskies also lost against Syracuse last time out. However, their loss came back on October 19th, on ESPN. They've had plenty of time to "recover" and to fume about getting embarrassed on National TV.
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A look at the recent series history shows that each of the last five meetings has been decided by a touchdown or less. Those five games had scores of 16-10, 19-16, 29-27, 17-13, and 22-15. The Huskies won four of those five games outright, including each of the last three.
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While this admittedly isn't one of UConn's best teams, I feel that its a good spot and am expecting another relatively close game. Consider grabbing the points.

Jesse SchuleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame
Pick: PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Notre Dame pulled off the upset on the road against the Sooners this week, and they remain undefeated at 8-0 this season. They continue to win games with their defense, despite struggling offensively. The Irish open as a huge favorite at home over the Panthers, despite the fact that both their previous two home games were very close.
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It took overtime to decide a winner when Stanford came to town a few weeks back, then the Irish just squeaked by BYU the following week, winning 17-14. Offensively, Notre Dame hasn't played well enough to justify being favored by three scores.
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The Irish had a bit of an offensive outburst last week against the Sooners, as they won 30-13 on the road. The final score is a little deceiving however, as Oklahoma tied the game at 13-13 halfway through the fourth quarter, only to see the Irish score 17 unanswered points in the final five minutes of play.
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The Irish have played five home games this year, and they have only won one of those games by more than a touchdown. That was a 41-3 blowout over Miami FL. All five of those games were low scoring affairs, with the total coming up short of the listed number.
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There is no question that Notre Dame can play defense, with the #2 ranked defense in the country, allowing an average of less than 10 points per game.
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Last Season the Irish went into Pittsburgh and beat the Panthers by a score of 15-12. Notre Dame has won two of the last three head to head meetings, however each of those games have been close, with the margin of victory less than a TD in each contest. All three of these games have been closely contested, low scoring affairs.

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Arizona St. at Oregon St.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Sun Devils (5-3) have lost two games in a row after their 45-43 loss to UCLA despite being a 6-point favorite. Arizona State has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss. The Sun Devils have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, Arizona State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 40 points in their last game. Now they go on the road for the first time in three games to face a Beavers team that is a perfect 3-0 at home and the Sun Devils have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Oregon State (6-1) looks to rebound from their first loss of the season as Sean Mannion's four interceptions doomed the Beavers to their 20-17 loss at Washington. Mannion and Cody Vaz did combined to pass for 318 yards -- and Oregon State has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Lastly, in the last 5 meetings between these two teams at Oregon State, the game finished Over the Total 4 times. Take the Over.

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Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre DameFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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On Saturday, the side is #5 Notre Dame (8-0, 5-3) who is coming off a huge road win at Oklahoma. Now I’m sure many would expect a letdown by ND considering this is Pittsburgh who is 4-4 SU (5-3 ATS) this season. The opening line has dropped roughly 2 ½ points because of the early action on Pittsburgh. No matter, the Irish are too skilled up and down the line of scrimmage to be tested by the Panthers. After all, this situation is being played in Notre Dame. Plus, ND has a chance with big games ahead to end up in the BCS Championship game. They can’t afford to look bad for that matter. FINAL FORECAST: Notre Dame 34 Pittsburgh 10

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Texas Christian vs. West Virginia
Pick: West VirginiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mountaineers have had a week to recover from back to back awful losses, suffered to Texas Tech and Kansas State. They are back in Morgantown, hosting a sinking TCU team that is still trying to get over losing its starting quarterback for the season. I feel all the elements are present for a West Virginia blowout Saturday afternoon as QB Geno Smith and the offense get back on track. I'm calling for a big win for the home side in this matchup of the two new Big 12 teams. The only prior meeting between these teams came in a bowl game in 1984.
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TCU looks to be a sinking ship. They too have lost back to back games following a 5-1 start as last week saw them jump out to a 14-0 lead on Oklahoma State only to allow 36 unanswered points. This is their toughest league opponent to date. It will also be the Horned Frogs ninth straight contest without a bye and second of back to back road games. They are still trying to get over the indefinite suspension of former starting QB Casey Pachall. With redshirt freshman Trevone Boykin under center, the team is just 1-3. Now, Boykin is not 100% after suffering a knee injury vs. Oklahoma State. Note that last week was the first time in 33 games TCU was held under 20 points. That was the longest such active streak in FBS.
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Scoring points has never been the issue for West Virginia, defense has. As mentioned, they have had had a week to recover from the back to back losses to Texas Tech and Kansas State. TCU doesn't have the horses to keep up here. Coming out of a bye week, WVU has won 9 of 13 times coming out of a bye. Look for QB Geno Smith to bounce back.

Wunderdog

New Mexico State at Auburn
Pick: Auburn -22.5

It wasn't too long ago that Cam Newton was leading the Auburn Tigers to a National Championship. It has been a big comedown for Coach Gene Chezik since then as Auburn owns just a single win on the season. They will likely be taking those frustrations out on a very poor New Mexico State team here. The Aggies have yet to beat an FBS team this season, losing seven straight. This team has now given up 40 or more points to nine of their last 13 opponents, and has not scored more than 18 in any of their last five. Do the math and you’ll see that this big number stands a good chance to fall. All losses aren't created equal and six of the seven Auburn losses have occurred in the SEC where there are no easy games. The seventh loss was against Clemson. Auburn is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a blowout loss by 21+ points. The last seven Aggies’ road games have resulted in a 308-100 total deficit, or by just shy of 30 per game. I look for Auburn to take their frustrations out here and duplicate those numbers.

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Pittsburgh Panthers at Notre Dame
Prediction: Pittsburgh PanthersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If this game doesn't have letdown written all over it, then no game does. Let's face it? with Boston College and Wake Forest next on the docket, the Irish will be coasting until their season finale in the Coliseum. There'll be no style points to pick up with this win, either, so we'll let our database do the talking this afternoon in South Bend. For starters, it informs us that the Dame is 0-9 ATS as favorites versus Big East opposition and 2-6 SU and 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home games versus this conference. We're also told that the Irish are 3-11-1 ATS off a SU dog win as a dog of six or more points, including 1-8-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more points. That ties in nicely to Pittsburgh's 4-1 ATS log as dogs of more than 15 points. And speaking of Pitt, after a rocky 2-4 start, they now need two wins in their final four games to gain bowl eligibility and figure to come with everything against this hated rival. Our database also says that the series visitor is a healthy 5-1-1 ATS. With that being said, look for the Irish fall to 0-8 ATS in Game Nine's of the season here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh.

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Florida Atlantic vs. Navy
Pick: NavyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Navy got off to a very a disappointing start in 2012, opening over in Dublin, Ireland against Notre Dame, losing 50-10 (no one was aware back then, that this year’s Irish were a ‘horse of a different color’). A 34-7 ‘spanking’ at Penn St followed, before beating VMI, 41-3. The Midshipmen then held an excellent San Jose St team to just 12 points in Annapolis but Navy’s triple option was totally shut down by the Spartans, as Navy totaled only 144 yards for the game on 11 FDs while failing to score. However, has anyone noticed that the Spartans are 6-2 in 2012, losing by just THREE points at now No. 14 Stanford? Navy finally showed some life in its 28-21 overtime victory over Air Force on Oct 6 and then won a wire-to-wire game 31-13 at Central Michigan on Oct 12. Navy showed excellent balance in that game, rushing for 238 yards while freshman QB Keenan Reynolds had three TD passes plus 134 passing yards (6-of-11 without an INT). Reynolds’ start at CMU was the first by a Navy freshman QB in 21 years!. Navy’s followed with two more wins, 31-30 at home over Indiana and 56-28 at East Carolina last Saturday. The Midshipmen are now 5-3 overall and a win over Army on Dec 8 will give them the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy (Air Force has won it the last two seasons). Head coach Ken Niumatalolo experienced his first losing season in 2011, as the Middies failed to go ‘bowling’ for the first time since 2002. However, Navy is all but assured of a bowl berth in 2012, needing just a SINGLE win in its final four games. The remainder of its schedule is pretty favorable and an eight or nine-win regular season looks like a ‘lock.’ Navy hosts FAU on Saturday, the first-ever meting between the two schools. The Owls of FAU were 1-11 last season, in Howard Schnellenberger’s final season (not the way he wanted to go out). Carl Pelini, the DC at Nebraska under his brother Bo, accepted the job in Boca Raton, his first head coaching gig. The Owls opened with a 7-3 home win over Wagner but then lost SIX in a row, giving the team 19 straight losses against FBS opponents. However, the Owls (+7 1/2) ended their 14-game Sun Belt losing streak by upsetting Troy 34-27 last Saturday. QB Wilbert threw his 4th TD pass with :17 left for the win. FAU led 17-0 but Troy got a TD with 1:49 left, setting up the late-game heroics. Wilbert is completing 65.3% with 12 TD passes and just three INTs and he may just give Navy’s pass “D” some trouble. One HAS to take notice that FAU has suddenly scored 34 points in each of its last two games, while gaining 461 and 421 yards. However, Navy’s option has been reenergized by frosh QB Reynolds, scoring 31, 31 and 56 points in his three starts. He’s had six TD passes in just 29 attempts in that span (previous starter at QB, Miller, had one TD pass in 58 attempts) plus he’s run for 206 yards (68.7 per) with four TDs. The Navy running game averages 269.9 YPG on 5.0 YPC and will face an FAU team (seeing the option for the first time), which has allowed 200.5 YPG on the ground (4.9 YPG). Navy has been a poor play as home favorites (7-14 ATS sine 2007) but HOW can’t this rejuvenated offense score at will vs FAU? I’m laying the points.

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Florida Atlantic vs. Navy
Pick: NavyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Road weary Florida Atlantic is making their sixth road trip in the last eight games. The Owls went 1-11 last year, the lone win coming in upset fashion over UAB at home. The following week, FAU got shut out 26-0 by a 4-8 Louisiana-Monroe team. This year, Florida Atlantic beat FCS foe Wagner on opening day. The following week they lost by more than a TD ATS at Middle Tennessee State, beginning a string of six consecutive defeats.
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The Owls snapped that losing streak with a dramatic win over slumping Troy last Saturday – their game winning drive stared with just 1:49 remaining on the clock. Carl Pelini’s squad is primed for another flat effort here – this is not a team that’s been able to build on whatever limited successes that they’ve had.
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Navy is the only triple option team that Florida Atlantic will face all year. A non-conference, late season road trip for a team that’s not likely to be well-prepared defensively here is a recipe for disaster, especially when we consider their offensive struggles – when FAU falls behind, they have no realistic shot at catching up!
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Navy has very quietly won four straight games, needing only a single win here to earn bowl eligibility; a big deal following last year’s 5-7 campaign that snapped a string of eight consecutive bowl appearances. Frosh QB Keenan Reynolds took over the starting job three weeks ago, and Navy has scored 118 points in their last three ballgames; a far cry from the sluggish offense that managed only 17 points in a trio of September losses. Expect a blowout! Take Navy.

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USC +8.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon ROLLED over Colorado 70-14 last week behind 617 yards of total offense. How potent is the Oregon running game? Saturday was the 6th time in 5 years they have ran for 400 yards or more. The entire Pac 12 COMBINED has only done that THREE TIMES in the same time frame. USC on the flip side was upset by Arizona 39-36 in a game the Trojans were favored by -6.5.
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Talk about a major letdown for USC this season. When college football lines were first posted in Las Vegas, the Trojans were -6.0 over Oregon and now sit at +8.5 underdogs. We do believe Oregon should be favored this Saturday, but not by no 8.5 points. Yes, the scoreboard shows an Arizona win, but USC played a VERY SLOPPY game and turned the ball over five times. In the loss, Matt Barkley threw for 494 yards in the air and the offense overall put up 618.
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This is just the third time in 10 years the Trojans are in the home underdog role and we expect them to leave EVERYTHING on the field in this game. Oregon has been putting up sick numbers, but also have been playing powerhouse teams like Colorado, Washington State and Arkansas State. The deep talent on the Oregon squad will prevail at the end, but that means nothing to us if they fail to cover. This game goes down to the wire and getting +8.5 with USC is the correct side in this one.

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West Virginia -5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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One thing is for sure, BOTH these teams have found out what joining the Big 12 entails, and that is not the same schedule, or road trips they were making in their previous conferences, and the bar is raised across the board when facing BIg 12 opponents. While many figured these two were front runners, I was never on board with TCU, and West Virginia has suffered the fate of facing K State at home in blowout loss already as well as Texas Tech waxing them and knocking them out of title cdontention.
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TCU has had issues all season, QB suspended / left the team who was their playmaker, their defense has not been able to overcome just 5 starters back, and major turnover issues. Playing in Morgantown a new twist as well for the Horned Frogs this week as well. Geno Smith will have a big day and I also think West Virginia's special teams will provide them a ton of field position as well. Baylor scored 63 in here, and K State 55 and their defense allows 493 yards a game and TCU allows just 333 yards. West Virginia has failed to cover their last 5 games at home and TCU is going to make a game of this, But TCU's QB Boykin is nursing a bad kneee but will play, and their WR Carter is out this game as well. After being outscored 114-28 and losing 2 in a row, with a week off, look for West Virginia at home to win a tight one, TCU cannot be trusted here and gave up 92 points in their last 2 games. The line dropped from 6.5 to 5, getting us off that fall number of 6 and I see WV winning by 10+.

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Georgia Tech -8FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Maryland Terrapins have had the worst luck at quarterback that I've ever seen this season. They have lost their top four quarterbacks to injury, and now they are down to their 5th stringer. That just so happens to be freshman linebacker Shawn Petty, a former high school QB who switches over to the other side of the ball this week.
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Senior C.J. Brown was injured during non-contact drills and suffered a torn ACL in August. Freshmen Perry Hillis and Caleb Rowe were also lost for the season recently with torn ACL's. Devin Burns went down in a 20-18 loss to North Carolina State on October 20th. That leaves Petty, who really stands little chance of having much success Saturday.
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Georgia Tech has certainly underachieved this season, but it should have no problem winning by double-digits against a Terrapins team that will not be able to move the football. Maryland ranks 115th in the country in rushing (91.4 yards/game), so it hasn't been able to move the ball on the ground. That's not good news given its QB situation.
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The Yellow Jackets have had no problem moving the ball and scoring points this season. They are averaging 35.1 points while ranking 29th in the country in total offense (455.1 yards/game). Sure, their defense has been sub-par, but that should be a non-factor against a 5th string QB and a terrible Maryland rushing attack.
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Maryland is 0-7 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Terrapins are 1-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons. Maryland is 0-8 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons. The Terrapins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game. Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.