Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Central Mich +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a huge rivalry game that has led to the home team winning over the last 9 meetings. Western Michigan has only won one time in Mount Pleasant since 1973. This year was supposed to be their best shot, but they've gone 1-4 since their star QB went out with an injury and Alex Carder is doubtful again Sunday. Tyler Van Tubbergen is 1-4 as a starter and has thrown 10 interceptions. That will fall into the hands of the Chippewa's because they just don't have the talent to stop opposing offenses. So what they have been doing is selling out playing aggressive defense and trying to force turnovers. Well Western Michigan has 15 interceptions and 8 fumbles lost on the year while Central Michigan is +3 in turnover margin. So the mistakes will be there for the Chippewa's. However..
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Don't sleep on their offense. They too are led by a senior QB in Ryan Radcliff who is having a good year. He struggles a bit when he's pressured, but Western Michigan has a 3.97 sack % on the road and Western Mich should struggle against a team that does have balance. Zurlon Tipton has to touch the ball 20+ times in this game. He's a physical back leading the MAC in yards per carry at 6.5 and has 871 yards. Western Michigan has struggled defending running backs like this and I see them struggling again. At the end of the day without Alex Carder Western Michigan won't have the leadership to win this type of rivalry game. Their QB's have completed just 54% of their passes for 4 TD and 9 interceptions in road games this year.
Red Dog Sports
Air Force / Army Under 61.5
These two service academies play every year and will be familiar with each other. The last five meetings have seen 38, 64, 42, 23 and 40 points scored. I think we see a game in the 50's on Saturday afternoon so take the under 61.5.
Accuscore
Indiana -1.5 vs. Iowa
This is a match-up of two bad teams, but Indiana has the advantage being at home, and having the one solid unit on the field. The Hoosiers have the best passing offense in the Big 10 which translates to the second best offense, and third best scoring offense. Iowa’s defense is middle of the pack in the conference, but is just ninth in pass efficiency defense. Indiana’s strength lines up perfectly against Iowa’s weakness. Iowa also has an extremely poor offense ranking 105th in the NCAA in scoring, and it will be without leading rusher Mark Weisman. Indiana wins nearly 63 percent of simulations covering the spread nearly 60 percent of the time as well. There is also a 40 percent chance of a double digit win for IU.
Penn State -3.5 at Purdue
Penn State is winning simulations 66 percent of the time by more than 7 points on average. It is projected to cover the spread 58 percent of the time, and wins by double digits 45 percent of the time. The Nittany Lions flat out are the better team, and have proven to be a well-coached bunch. It’s hard to undersell how good a job Bill O’Brien has done thus far in an impossible situation. Purdue has lost four straight games, and is struggling to score points. Penn State again has a very solid defense, and the offense has been competent enough to take advantage of field position.
Oregon -8.5 at USC
This line opened at -7 or even -6 at some places, and has continually gone up as money pours in for the Ducks. The line was set incorrectly as even at -8.5 or -9, almost all the money is still with the Ducks. I like Oregon as well for a multitude of reasons as sims have Oregon winning by 10 points on average. USC has both depth and penalty issues, particularly on defense. Both of these things are exacerbated when playing teams that play uptempo, and no team plays at a lightning pace quite like Oregon. The Trojans are appear to be a soft team mentally based on their quotes after both their losses this season. Players talked about how they weren’t ready for either game, and weren’t prepared. In both games I thought they didn’t quite know how to react to being down on the scoreboard after the entire offseason was built around how invincible the team was. USC also has yet to beat a team that currently has a winning record. Oregon is steamrolling towards the BCS championship, and this is likely the first game Chip Kelly will stay on the accelerator into the fourth quarter.
Tulane +5.5 vs. Rice
Here’s a case of two terrible teams playing each other. The computer however has these squads relatively equal in their terribleness with Tulane winning at home 50.2 percent of the time yet getting 5.5 points. I have only seen Rice play once, and have not seen Tulane all year. This is purely a small computer value play based on the fact that a certified bad team in Rice is giving nearly six points on the road.
Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon at USCFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: USCFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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My first note is that my power ratings that I make a week in advance have the Ducks 4.5 points better than USC at this venue. 3-4 points off a number is a decent-sized difference at this point of the season. USC snapped Oregon's 21-game win streak last season with a 38-35 win and the stats were just as close as the final score. USC has blue-chip athletes, galore...just like Oregon. There isn't much of a difference in talent level, although Oregon may have a depth advantage. I went against USC last week in their loss to Arizona, a game USC looked comfortably in control of in the second half. But five turnovers and no less than four empty trips inside the Arizona 35 yard line was too much for USC to overcome. This week, they expect to have OT Walker back on the field and that gives the o-line a huge boost. They're healthy up front and their stats are on par with last year's squad, give or take a few yards. In fact, Lane Kiffin says the only real difference between this team and last year's version has been dumb mistakes and penalties. I believe the focus they'll have for this one will keep the Trojans on track throughout the contest. USC is on a 16-6 ATS run off a SU loss. I believe the value lies with the home dog and I'm recommending a play on USC plus the points.
John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Stanford at ColoradoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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10* graded play on Colorado as they host Stanford set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado will lose this game by fewer than 22 points. I just don't see the Cardinal as good as the media proclaims they are. They gave up 48 points in a 54-48 win over Arizona and allowed 491 passing yards. Just last week, they had to fight to defeat Washington State 24-17 installed as 25 point favorites. They also allowed a whopping 401 passing yards as WSU completed 43 passes on 61 attempts with just one turnover. The Cardinal offense is just not a solid consistent unit. They rank 62nd nationally scoring 27 PPG, 64th averaging 365.5 YPP, 50th averaging 0.399 points-per-play, 68th averaging 5.4 yards-per-play, 100th converting just 34.5% of their third downs, and 90th scoring on 76% of their red zone possessions. Colorado is certainly worse based on the rankings, but we are getting 27+ point to assume the risk of an offensive unit that is not much worse than the Cardinal. The defense is where the disparity arises and is certainly in Stanford?s favor, but only on the ground game. Stanfords pass defense is extremely poor and rank 85th in the nation allowing a 62% completion percentage, 123rd facing an average of 46 pass attempt per game, and 112th allowing 287 passing yards per game. Stanford has not reason to try and run the score up, and no reason to take chances unnecessarily on both sides of the ball that would lead to miscues and turnovers. This, in my mind, means that the Cardinal defense will give the underneath routes to Colorado and then tighten up in the red zone. The mission is not to give up a big offensive play and this is what will keep the Buffalo quite competitive in this game. Take the Buffalo.
Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas A&M -7
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The Aggies are being favored by a TD+PAT on the road for a reason. They don’t have any bad losses. They have fallen to very good Florida and LSU teams by a total of eight points. Mississippi State, meanwhile, was crushed 38-7 by Alabama in the only game it’s played against a high-quality opponent.
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These two have played one like opponent this season (Auburn), and Texas A&M was the more impressive team in that game. The Aggies won 63-21 at Auburn while outgaining the Tigers 671-335. The Bulldogs won their matchup with the Tigers 28-10 at home but only won the yardage battle 388-216.
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Texas A&M is undefeated away from home this season. It has won its four away contests by an average of 23.0 points. It’s won its three true road games by an average of 30.0 points.
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Mississippi State hasn’t seen an offense as good as the one it will see Saturday. The Aggies rank third in the nation in scoring with 45.5 points per game and sixth in total offense with 542.9 yards per game.
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The fact Texas A&M racked up 671 yards last week is significant because it is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in its previous game.
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The Aggies have scored more than 28 points in six of their last seven games and are 84-38 ATS when they score 28 points or more over the last two decades.
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Mississippi State didn’t allow any of its first five opponents to crack the 28-point mark, but it has allowed two of its last three foes to score 30-plus. Consider that the Bulldogs are 23-70 ATS when they allow 28 points or more the last two decades.
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With the total set at 60.0, oddsmakers are basically expecting a score of 34 to 27. The fact the books expect the Aggies to go over the 28.0-point mark bodes well for us.
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Mississippi State is not as its record leads you to believe. It was exposed by Alabama, and it will be exposed again by another superior opponent.
Chip Chirimbes
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Texas vs. Texas Tech
Play: TexasFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is just for the most part a system play where the Longhorns are going 7-2 ATS when getting four or more points. They have also 'cashed in' on the second of road game when a dog going 9-3 ATS in that roll.
Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Missouri Tigers +17
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Even though Missouri is coming off an impressive 33-10 win at home against Kentucky, there isn’t a lot that screams take the Tigers on the road against a far superior team like Florida. Especially when you look at how the Tigers have done in their previous conference games against elite talent. Missouri lost at home to Georgia 20-41, at South Carolina 10-31 and at home to Alabama 10-42. Each of those scores resulted in a loss bigger than the spread given for this game.
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However, you have to be extremely careful when backing a team like Florida after losing their first game of the year this late in the season. It’s going to be extremely difficult for Florida to come out with a lot of energy in this game. Not only did their hopes of playing for the BCS National Championship take a hit with that loss to Georgia, they likely lost their opportunity to represent the SEC East in the conference title game. Regardless of what Florida does the rest of the season, they have no chance of playing in the title game if the Bulldogs beat Ole Miss and Auburn.
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The other thing you have to like about Missouri is that they should have a healthy James Franklin at quarterback. That is a big plus for the Tigers, who are going up against one of the top defenses in the country. Dating back to last season, the Gators are just 1-5 ATS following a S.U. loss. This could also be a game where the Gators defense doesn’t show up. Florida is 0-7 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 5 straight games. The best part about Missouri is they don’t have to play great to cover the spread. They can lose by two touchdowns and still come out a winner.
Joseph D'AmicoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas State is ranked #3 in the nation. The 8-0 Wildcats have people talking about a National Title. This is a must-win (with a statement) for Kansas State. Collin Klein leads the Heisman talk right now. The QB has a 70.9% CR, 1630 YP, 12TDs, 2 INTs, and 16 more scores on the ground. The team is out-scoring opponents by an average of 33.2 PPG at home. Overall, the squad has shown impressive wins over Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas Tech. These are all teams with spread-passing offenses like that of Oklahoma State. On offense, the unit has committed 1 TO in league play while their "D" ranks 13th nationally. They're excellent against the run and stingy vs. the pass. Oklahoma State is good but has struggled on the road, getting thumped by 21 to Arizona and barely eking by Kansas. QB, Wes Lunt has 5 TDs/4INTS and is only making his 2nd start away from home. The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in the L8 meetings. Take Kansas State.
Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Wildcats are on a mission this season and once again this week apply to a nice 22-5 system that plays on winning Conference home teams that are favored to -26 and are off back to back wins the last by 21 or more and scored 35 or more points, vs an opponent that comes in off back to back wins and covers. Oklahoma St is 0-6 straight up and to the spread as a road dog from 7.5 to 10. Kansas St has covered 16 of the last 21 Conference games and has covered 7 of the last 8 here at home in the series. Based on the system, angles and series history we will back Kansas St to keep Rolling.
Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Panthers +17
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Notre Dame is being overvalued here because it won by 17 at Oklahoma last week. The Fighting Irish haven't won by more than 7.0 points in any of their four home games this season. Since dropping its first two games, Pitt has come storming back to win four of its last six. It is 5-1 ATS in this stretch and neither defeat came by more than 10 points. The Panthers always get up for Notre Dame. They have lost the last two matchups but only by six and three points. Seven of the past eight meetings between these two have been decided by eight points or less. Close games have given the edge to the underdog as it is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points.
Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis vs. Marshall
Play: MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis isn't doing anything right with a 1-7 record and winless on the road. They are getting beat by a 33-17 average and have allowed 41, 35 and 44 points the last three weeks (all losses). The Tigers are 14-29-2 ATS in their last 45 games overall and 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Marshall is 2-2 in conference play with a terrific offense averaging 39.9 points and 378.5 yards passing. That air attack is No. 2 in the nation. The Thundering Herd is 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Play Marshall!
Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa Hawkeyes +2.5
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Off back-to-back subpar performances against Penn State and Northwestern, look for Iowa to step up its game against an Indiana team it has dominated. The Hawkeyes have won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 9 against the Hoosiers. They have by an average of 20.0 points during their four-game run in the series. The Hawkeyes are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. Plus, they are 21-9 ATS off a road loss to a conference rival under coach Ferentz. They have won by an average of 4.1 points in this situation. Iowa played Northwestern tougher than Indiana did. It also went on the road and beat a Michigan State team that the Hoosiers lost to at home. Bet Iowa.
Steve Merril
Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame
Pick: Pittsburgh
This is a possible flat spot for Notre Dame after their huge road win at Oklahoma last week as an 11-point underdog. The Irish now go from being a double-digit underdog to a double-digit favorite. Notre Dame is undefeated on the season, but they have not been winning by large margins. In fact, the Irish have played four home games this season and have gone just 1-3 ATS with each win coming by 7 points or less (3, 7, 7, and 3).
The reason Notre Dame has struggled to cover as a home favorite this season is because he Irish are a defensive team that has gone 7-0 Under in their past seven games. They are averaging just 15.8 points offensively (excluding overtime) during their four home games this season with just 20, 13, 13, and 17 total offensive points scored in regulation time in each home game. This will make it difficult to cover the large pointspread today.
Pittsburgh is an underrated team right now as they started the season slowly, going 0-2 SU/ATS as they adjusted to a new coaching staff. However, the Panthers turned their season around in Game 3 with an outright home win versus Virginia Tech as a +10.5-point underdog. Over the past six games, Pittsburgh is a very profitable 5-1 ATS and their only straight-up losses have come by just 1 and 10 point margins. The Panthers enter today off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, including a 30-point victory last week.
Running back Ray Graham, wide receiver Devin Street, and cornerback Lafayette Pitts are expected to play today, despite recent legal troubles. Pittsburgh has played Notre Dame tough the past two years, losing by just 3 and 6-point margins as an underdog in each game. Look for another close result today.
John Ryan
Oregon at USC
Play: USC
10* graded play on USC as they host Oregon set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than seven points and has a very real shot at winning the game. Consider a combination bet placing a 3.5* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the tasty money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-7 ATS for 82% winners since 2002. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after out rushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. This system has gone 12-2 ATS over the past three seasons and 24 of the 38 plays made covered the spread by seven or more points, which brings the upset bid into reality. SC QB Barkley has been pressing in recent games and he needs to just make reads and use his gifted arm and football IQ to make plays. His pressing, though is a result of inconsistency at LT, where All-American Matt Kalil played and was drafted fourth overall by the Vikings. Due to injury, SC now has a freshman at LT in Max Tuerk. He has a mean streak more typical with a defensive linebacker and finishes all plays. He will matched up against Jordan and will obviously need occasional help. however, Tuerk has excellent feet and very long arms and can move very quickly laterally, which is an absolute must against an end like Jordan. After watching him play very well against Arizona in his first start last week, I do believe that Tuerk can win this battle adn that will be a very big part to SC upsetting the Ducks tonight.