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Arizona +11FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Taking advantage of Oregon's lack of intensity last week, Arizona jumped to an early lead and rolled to a 42-16 victory against the Flock. RB Carey ran for 206 yards and QB Denker completed 19 of 22 passes. Now, the Wildcats bring great momentum as they cross the desert for their annual battle with the Sundevils. They will line up knowing that the away team is 17-4 ATS in this series. Yet, they will hunger for revenge for the 41-34 home field defeat last season. Home standing Arizona St. is off a satisfying victory of their own. The road win at UCLA clinched the PAC 12 South Title. Having defeated AZ last year, it makes this a bit of a sandwich game between last week's victory and playing a revenge game against Stanford for the PAC 12 Title and the right to represent the conference in the Rose Bowl. Clear situational advantage for the momentum laden revenge, rivalry road dog.
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Ohio State vs. MichiganFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Michigan +16.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Big number in this bitter rivalry. This game actually opened at 12. Joe Public believes the Buckeyes will go for the style points if the opportunity presents itself, being the Buckeyes are on the outside looking in in terms of the BCS Championship. Statistically, the Buckeyes look impressive on both sides of the ball. But are they that good, or the product of a weak conference? By all accounts, it has been a disappointing season for the Wolverines. With the talent they have on offense, there can be no other explanation that they have underachieved, plain and simple. But the defense has been more than respectable. As inconsistent as the offense has been, they do have the ability to hit some big plays in the passing game (8.3 ypa). I expect the Michigan defense to play a tough game, and the talent on offense to hit some plays and keep this game close.
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From Game 6 on, play AGAINST a winless home favorite off a road game versus an opponent not coming in off a home straight up victory their last time out. This system has posted a perfect record of 13-0 ATS with the home favorite failing to cover the spread by 16.5 points per game since 1991. We will take the points here as this system improves to 14-0 ATS on Saturday.
Larry Ness
Penn State at Wisconsin
Prediction: Wisconsin
Wisconsin is ranked No. 14 in the AP poll and 15th in the current BCS standings with a 9-2 overall record (6-1 in the Big Ten). The Badgers enter this game on a six-game winning streak that has them one spot out of the top-14 in the BCS standings, the plateau needed to qualify for an at-large berth in one of the major bowl games.
Wisconsin needs just 34 yards rushing to break the school record of 3,309 set last season over 14 games! Gary Andersen has stepped in for Bret Bielema and the Badgers haven't lost a step. RB James White said. "He's a guy that's a player's coach ... we couldn't ask for anything more."
White's run for 1,281 yards in his senior season (6.5 YPC with 13 TDs), while sophomore Melvin Gordon leads the team with 1,375 yards (on 8.2 YPC with 12 TDs). That duo makes it easy on QB Joel Stave, who has completed 63.0% for a modest 2,075 yards with 17 TD TD passes and nine INTs.
Wisconsin also switched to a 3-4 defense and that hasn't been a problem either, as the team allows 13.4 PPG (5th) on 278.5 YPG (6th). Wisconsin has lost just twice this season, a 32-30 loss back on September 14 to Arizona State (one tainted by an officiating error in the final seconds) and 31-24 at Ohio St on September 28.
Penn St shocked almost all by going 8-4 last year but after last Saturday's 23-20 overtime loss to Nebraska in its home finale, the Nittany Lions (6-5, 3-4) will need to win at Wisconsin to avoid a .500 season. "Our team realizes that we still have one more game," offensive tackle Garry Gilliam said. "You could still see (in the locker room) in everyone's eyes that we've got to fight and get our seventh win here."
Penn State's played just three true road game this year (beat Syracuse at MetLife Stadium to open the year, in a non-cover) and the results are not good. The Nittany lions have lost at Indiana (44-24), at Ohio St (63-14) and at Minnesota (24-10). Just why should they be expected to win here at Camp Randall, where Wisconsin is 6-0 SU and ATS, outscoring opponents on average, 41.2-to-6.0 PPG.
Last year, Wisconsin backed into the Big Ten championship game despite finishing third in the Leaders Division behind Ohio State and Penn State, as those schools were ineligible due to NCAA sanctions. Wisconsin will surely remember losing last year's regular season finale at Penn St (24-21 in OT), after losing its previous game at home to Ohio St, 21-14, also in OT.
The impost is big but deserving. Lay it.
Tom Stryker
Minnesota vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -16½
Don't think for a second that Michigan State will be looking ahead to next week's Big 10 Championship Game against Ohio State. With a win today, the Spartans will be just the third State team to finish the Big 10 season with a perfect record. MSU accomplished that feat twice before in 1965 and 1966.
In order to pick up that important victory, the Green and White will lean on a defense that has been flat out nasty. State's stop unit is ranked No. 1 in the FBS in total defense (allow an avg of 236.6 ypg) and rushing defense (allow an avg of 59.4 ypg) and they'll be primed to stuff a Golden Gophers ground game that is averaging a whopping 207.9 yards per game overland.
One this head coach Mark Dantonio's kids do well is cash tickets coming off a win. According to my notes, Sparty is a lucrative 70-49-1 SU and 71-48-1 ATS coming off a straight up victory including a decent 55-32 ATS in this set lined up against an opponent that holds a won/loss percentage greater than .400. With those two parameters working and Michigan State facing a Big 10 foe, this team trend jumps to a nice 48-27 ATS.
After ripping off four consecutive wins over Northwestern, Nebraska, Indiana and Penn State, Minnesota finally met its match when defensive-minded Wisconsin came to town. The Badgers turned up the "D" and left the Twin Cities with an impressive 20-7 victory. This isn't the greatest spot for the Foldin' Gophers anyway. As a guest hitting the road off two or more home games, Minny is a pathetic 2-20 SU and 8-14 ATS provided they are matched up against a foe that scoots in off two or more straight up wins. If the Gophers are off a straight up loss, this team trend slips down to a woeful 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS.
Eighteen seniors will be taking the field at Spartan Stadium on Saturday and these young men have produced a stunning 22-5 SU home record. With history clearly on their side - MSU has won 22 of the last 28 in this series - the Spartans will close out their regular season run with a goose egg in the conference loss column. Take Michigan State.
Kyle Hunter
San Diego State vs. UNLV
Play: Over 54
The UNLV Rebels are now bowl eligible, but a win here would send them to a better game. San Diego State started slowly, but the Aztecs have won 7 of their last 8. UNLV's defense isn't good at all against the run, and San Diego State's offensive front has been doing really good work of late in the trenches. UNLV's Caleb Herring and Tim Cornett provide a nice one-two punch on offense for the Rebels. This total is set pretty low, and I think both offenses put up a decent amount of points here. Take the over.
Rob Vinciletti
Purdue vs. Indiana
Play: Indiana -19½
Indy gets a team they can handle here and we note that home favorites of more than 20 that were dogs of 14 or more last out have been solid through the years if they have a win percentage of .666 or less and the opponent, Purdue in this case is not off a spread loss. Purdue managed to keep the game with Illinois close last week, but wont be able to do that hear as they are anemic on both sides of the ball losing teams playing their last road game that are getting more than a field goal have failed to cover nearly 90% if they were a winning team last season and were not getting more than 10 points in their last game. Indiana often and early in this one.
Doug Upstone
Penn State vs. Wisconsin
Play: Penn State +25
This is Penn State's 'bowl game' and would love to end the up and down 2013 campaign on a high note in Madison. While they are overmatched, they will play with a lot of heart and have enough talent on both sides of the ball to keep this interesting. Take the 25 and the Lions Saturday afternoon.
Jack Jones
Minnesota +17
After wrapping up the Big Ten Legends Division Title last week with a big win at Northwestern, the Spartans now know they’ll be playing Ohio State in the Big Ten Title game. That essentially means that this game against Minnesota has little riding on it. Even if the Spartans were to lose, they could still beat the Buckeyes and earn a trip to the Rose Bowl. It certainly could be hard for them to be motivated knowing that those are the circumstances regardless of this outcome.
Minnesota has been one of the most improved teams in the country this season. It had won four straight games over Northwestern (20-17) and Indiana (42-39) on the road, as well as Nebraska (34-23) and Penn State (24-10) at home before suffering a home loss to Wisconsin (7-20) last week. The Golden Gophers hung tough against the Badgers for four quarters, limiting them to just 324 yards of total offense.
The defense has carried this team all season, giving up just 23.1 points and 375.6 yards per game to rank 44th in the country in total defense. Michigan State only averages 385.3 yards per game to rank 80th in the country in total offense. The Spartans could have a hard time putting up enough points to cover this big spread, needing to win by more than two touchdowns and a field goal to cover.
The Spartans really have not been that dominant at home this season with most of their best performances coming on the road. They have home wins over the likes of Western Michigan (26-13) as a 27.5-point favorite, South Florida (21-6) as a 21-point favorite, Indiana (42-28) as a 10-point favorite and Purdue (14-0) as a 28-point favorite. These lackluster efforts show that the Spartans are vulnerable when asked to lay big points at home. Minnesota is a better squad than all four of those teams.
Plays on a road team (MINNESOTA) – after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 75-40 (65.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five conference games. The Spartans are 4-10 against the number in their last 14 home games. Minnesota is 13-3 against the spread in its last 16 November games.
Minnesota has played Michigan State pretty tough over the past decade or so, especially in East Lansing. The Golden Gophers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven meetings in Michigan State. The underdog is 10-2 against the number in the last 12 meetings in this series. Bet Minnesota Saturday.
Bruce Marshall
Virginia Tech at Virginia
Pick: Virginia Tech
Most Commonwealth sources believe under-fire UVa HC Mike London will be out of work before lame-duck Gov. Bob McDonnell. And good luck to London if Cavs need to beat VPI to save his job, as Frank Beamer hasn’t lost to state rival in a decade. Trend likely continues, as even erratic Hokie QB Logan Thomas (15 TDP and 12 picks) can likely exploit AWOL Virginia “D” allowing 50 ppg last 3. Play VPI
Rickie Robbins
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Boston Celtics -1½
The league-worst Milwaukee Bucks look for a rare win when they play the Boston Celtics tonight.
I didn't think the Bucks would start the season so poorly, but the bottom line is that they're 2-13 on the season and are hoping to avoid a 12th straight loss after falling to the Bobcats by 92-76 last night. Brandon Knight had a team-high 17 points on seven of 11 shooting, but he had next to no support as the rest of the Bucks shot just 28.7 percent from the field. I was most disappointed with OJ Mayo who had just five points on two of 11 shooting but I shouldn't be surprised because he's averaging just 8.8 points over his last six outings.
Meanwhile, the Celtics were going through their own struggles when they lost six straight from Nov 13 to Nov 22, but they've since won three of their last four including a 103-86 win against the Cavs last night. The Celtics started the game with the right intensity and finished the quarter leading by 28-10 before coasting to an easy win. Jeff Green led five scorers in double figures with his 31 points, while Jordan Crawford had a triple double of 11 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. With the win, Boston improved to 7-11 on the season and 3-5 at home.
In ATS trends, the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a losing record and 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, while the Bucks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a loss and 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points.
The Bucks have actually won four of their last five meetings with the Celtics, but given the form they're in, I'd be pretty surprised if they win again here. The Celtics took advantage of a struggling Cavaliers team last night and I think it's more of the same for them tonight. Take the Celtic's in this one.
Alabama vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn +11
The Auburn Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide face off on Saturday as the close out their 2013 college football regular seasons in the Iron Bowl.
The Auburn Tigers have been one of the better comeback stories this season as they returned from a few down years and from not making a bowl game last season to a top 10 ranking. The Tigers have just one loss this season, a road loss to LSU, and a win here would make this season extra special. QB Nick Marshall has completed 58.4 percent of his passes for none touchdowns and five interceptions but more importantly he has rushed for 823 yards and nine touchdowns. Tre Mason has rushed for 1,153 yards and 17 touchdowns and Cameron Artis-Payne has found the endzone five times. Sammie Coates leads the Auburn receivers with 30 receptions and five touchdowns and Ricardo Louis has 23 catches. Chris Davis is Auburn’s leading tackler with 55 tackles, Cassanova McKinzy has 53 tackles, and Dee Ford has eight sacks. It is important to not that Auburn has 12 interceptions this season after having just two all of last season. The Auburn offense is averaging 39 points and 499.9 yards per game while defensively they are allowing 22 points and 406.9 yards per game. A win here puts Auburn in the SEC Championship Game and more than likely will make Gus Malzahn the leading candidate for Coach of the Year.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are the back-to-back defending National Champions but if they can win out this year this will be the only of the three who have gone undefeated. Alabama hasn’t been in a close game since their second game of the year getting a seven-point win over Texas A&M. QB A.J. McCarron continues to lead the Tide avoiding mistakes as he has completed 68.6 percent of his passes for 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. T.J. Yeldon as rushed for 1,022 yards and 12 touchdowns and Kenyan Drake has rushed for 661 yards and eight touchdowns. Christion Jones has 35 receptions and two touchdowns and Kevin Norwood has 33 catches and six touchdowns. C.J. Mosley is Alabama’s leading tackler with 88 tackles, Landon Collins has 51 tackles, and Trey Depriest has 47 tackles. The Alabama offense is averaging 39.7 points and 444.7 yards per game while defensively they are allowing just 9.3 points and 263.9 yards per game. In order to beat Alabama it is likely going to take winning the turnover battle and that would just be the start.
Auburn is 4-0 against the spread in their last four home games, 8-0 against the spread in their last eight games, and 5-0 against the spread against a team with a winning record. Alabama is 5-1 against the spread in their last six SEC games, 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games, and 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 road games. The favorite has covered the point spread in six of the last eight meetings of these two.
Well the stakes in the Iron Bowl haven’t been this big in a few years but it is only fitting that it is as these are the two teams who have wont he last four National Championships. This is a rivalry game but aside from that, Auburn’s scheme should match up well against the Bama defense, at least as good as any can and I expect the Tide to have trouble stopping Auburn at least in the first half, then it is just matter of if the Tigers can hold on. Either way, this is way too many points for this one as either Auburn wins a thriller or Bama wins in the six point range.
River City Sharps
New Mexico +37
Not gonna lie to you, this line doesn't make a lot of sense to us. We know Boise St is at home and New Mexico is only 3-8 on the season, but this is a BIG number and we really question if Boise can handle the cover. Consider that New Mexico, while they have struggled defensively, score 34.2 ppg. The bigger problem has obviously been their defense, where they are allowing a staggering 42.5 ppg. So with that in mind, we expect Boise State to be able to score at will against New Mexico, but the Boise defense isn't exactly the second coming of Alabama! They allow 24.4 ppg and 23 first downs per game. This is just too big a number against a team that has proven they can score (they scored 28 LW against Fresno and 42 the week before against Colorado St) We will take our chances here.
Harry Bondi
ARIZONA STATE -11 over Arizona
Arizona is coming off a "Super Bowl" type of win after knocking off Oregon last week as a 20-point dog and we just can't see them having enough in the tank to come back on the road and put forth a similar effort. Especially since this game is being played on a field in which ASU has outscored its opponents by nearly 28 points per game. This is also a good match-up technically for the Sun Devils since they have played tremendous on defense when facing one-dimensional attacks this season. Sure, Arizona's stud RB KaDeem Carey will get his yards, but we expect ASU to shut down Arizona QB BJ Denker. Not only is this a huge rivalry game, but ASU will host next week's Pac-12 Championship Game with a victory here. Arizona is 6-10 ATS the last three years vs. winning teams and the Sun Devils offense will be too much for them to handle tonight.
Strike Point Sports
Boston College (-2.5) over Syracuse
Right now there isn’t a single defense that could stop running back Andre Williams. The Eagles’ main man went over 2,000 yards on the season last week against Maryland, and the quite average defense that Syracuse has shown this year won’t be enough to slow him down. BC has won four straight games thanks in large part to their tailback’s effort, and he has his team primed for an eighth victory of the season. At 5-6, it’s clear the Orange have been as inconsistent as could be. They don’t pose much threat with a home-field advantage, so I think the favorite tag with Boston College suits the Eagles well in this game. They cover in the Carrier Dome against ‘Cuse.
Playersbet
Missouri Tigers -4
This is a big time revenge game for Missouri who fell behind last year 42-0. They will get there revenge and they will do it in convincing fashion. Missouri Tigers are just 1 win away from a spot in the SEC title game. Texas AM is 0-3 ATS this year on the road and this is just a couple days away from being 0-4. Lets grab this small line, and watch Missouri roll to a easy double digit winner.