DAVE COKIN
IOWA STATE VS WEST VIRGINIA
PLAY: IOWA STATE +7.5
Curtains for Iowa State and West Virginia today, but I see several good reasons to get involved in a largely meaningless season finale between two losing teams.
Iowa State is a bad team this season, which is precisely what they figured to be. The Cyclones were down substantially on paper from last year’s entry and have basically lived down to expectations. But there’s never been any quit in this team. Iowa State is well coached and while they can’t match up with almost anyone in the Big 12 in terms of talent, they’re right there and then some when it comes to effort. That’s a major reason I’m looking at the Cyclones today.
You probably have to go back about 25 years or so to find a less meaningful finale for West Virginia. The Mountaineers are generally getting prepped to move on to a bowl berth right about now. But that went out the window two weeks ago with the embarrassing loss to pathetic Kansas.
I see the bye week being a huge negative for West Virginia. Turn back the clock a couple of years and this would still be a big date for the Mountaineers, as they’d be waging the Backyard Brawl with hated Pittsburgh. But that rivalry went away when WVU headed to the greener pa$ture$ of the Big 12. Now you’ve got a team going absolutely no place with two weeks to sulk off the disaster at Kansas. Sorry, that’s just not a positive.
There’s also what sure sounds like it’s going to be lots of fans dressed up as empty seats for this game. The Thanksgiving Break means a good number of students away from Morgantown and from what I’m gathering the atmosphere for this one is apathetic at best.
These teams are actually pretty close on the metric charts I put the most emphasis on. West Virginia is a little better, but it’s a scant margin. Add in the scheduling dynamics and the situation, and it looks to me like Iowa State is a live dog that could pull off the upset. I’ll happily grab more than a TD with the Cyclones.
Alex Smith Sports
Duke vs North Carolina
Pick: Duke
Duke needs this rivalry win to face-off against Florida State in the ACC title game. UNC will be playing tough now, knowing that even with 6 wins, some teams will be staying home for the winter as there are too many bowl-eligible teams and not enough bowls. It will be a tight contest, I'll take the points with the Blue Devils
Mid-Major Matt
Northern Illinois vs Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska -17
Nebraska hosts Northern Illinois in a mismatch on Saturday afternoon. The Huskers are 4-2 on the season and have four players putting up 10 points or more per game. They have three others scoring at least eight per contest meaning they have a ton of depth. Nebraska has taken care of business at home against weak teams beating Fla Gulf Coast by 24, Western Illinois by 15 and South Carolina State by 26. Northern Illinois is 2-3 on the year. They have yet to play a true road game and could be in for a shock against the Cornhuskers. They have one double digit scorer in Darrell Bowie with the rest of the team failing to help out. NIU has failed to cover in four of their five lined games this season and 11 of their last 16 in November. Nebraska has covered all three games as a favorite. This one should be a no contest blowout.
John Ryan
Duke at North Carolina
Plsy: North Carolina
The simulator shows a high probability that UNC will win this game by 7 or more points. Miami (Fla) certainly is a huge Carolina fan, but they need Duke and Virginia Tech to lose for them to gain a spot in the ACC Championship game against FSU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 73-34 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2002. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (N CAROLINA) after a win by 35 or more points. UNC played Old Dominion last week in a scrimmage winning 80-20 and covering the 17 point spread. They have won six straight ATS and five straight overall to recover from a very rough 1-5 start. Duke has been solid all season winning 7 straight games and covering their last 6 ATS. However, UNC has the favorable matchups that will end Duke's Cinderella season. Honestly, I am a lover of the underdog, so it is almost painful for to me see this exciting Duke team fall just short. They will have the core of their team coming back next season and I expect that next year will be their year to shine in the ACC as a dominant team. For today, though, take UNC and lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
Penn State/Wisconsin Under 49½
This total is set quite a bit higher than it should be considering Wisconsin boasts one of the best defenses in the Big Ten. Penn State has been solid defensively this season, holding opponents to just 26.4 points per game. I don't think the Badgers will be able to do enough scoring on their own to send this game over the total.
Wisconsin has held opponents to just six points per game when they are playing at home. I assure you that is not an anomaly either, because the defense allows just 13.4 points per game in all games this season. The Nittany Lions have a strong run bias, and the Badgers have held opposing backs to a mere 83 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry when they are playing at home.
This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when the total is between 49.5 to 56 points, and it features an average defensive team that is allowing 330 to 390 yards per game, against an excellent defensive team like Wisconsin that is allowing 280 yards per game or less. This system is 78-39 in favor of the under.
Dave Price
Weber State -12
A Weber State squad that won a whole lotta games last season is still looking for its first win. That can't be sitting well. As if an 0-3 start isn't enough motivation, the Wildcats were upset by a point in OT at San Jose State last season. They'll be out to avenge that loss tonight. The Spartans are coming off a 17-point loss at Portland, which is significant because they are 1-8 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by 14.6 points on average in this situation. Weber State will also be the much fresher side. The Spartans have already played seven games while Weber State has played just three. The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 18.1 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that Weber State is on an 11-3 ATS run after 2 or more consecutive losses. Lay the points.
Dave Essler
Hofstra +6.5
Revenge from last year, and Manhattan is somewhat over rated early, IMO. Struggle to find #2 guard, and just cannot justify laying this many points on the road. Hofstra has played Belmont, L'ville, and Richmond, so you'd expect their stats to be somewhat skewed. Hofstra shoots well from the line, and get their a fair bit, so at home, I expect this game to be much closer, if not a Hofstra win.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Ohio State -15 over MICHIGAN: The Buckeyes are still in the hunt for a possible BCS Title shot and should FSU or Bama slip up at all then they will get their shot, because i just don't see them losing this one or the Big 10 title game either. The last thing that OSU will want to do is leave any doubt with the voters or computers should the top 2 slip, so their will look to put a hurtin on a Michigan squad that has turned out to be not all that good this year. Michigan is 7-4 on the year, but they are just 2-4 in their last 6 games and their offenses has left them in their last 4 games, scoring an average of just 14.8 ppg (Regulation) during those last 4 games. The Defense has looked good as a whole, but they did allow 29 points and 394 yards to Michigan State, 24 points and 407 yards to Iowa, 43 points to Penn State, 47 points to Indiana and 24 points to offensively challenged Akron. Oh yeah, in that Akron game they were 36 point favorites, but outgained the Zips by just 7 yards, while winning by 4 points. This is not a team that has looked good all year, while Ohio State comes in at 11-0 and they have just been crushing opponents of late, winning each of their last 4 games by 25 points or more. Michigan's only motivation here will be to knock the Buckeyes out of the Title picture, but I don't see it as being enough. OSU has big edges on both sides of the ball and once they get up in this game they will not take their foot off the gas. OSU should win by 24+ here.
3 UNIT PLAY
COLORADO STATE -16 over Air Force: Big motivation for the Rams here as they look to become bowl eligible with a win, plus they would also love to snap a 7 game losing streak in the series in the process. Air Force has not only won the last 7 in the series, but the last 6 wins have been by at least 18 points. Colorado State comes in having won 4 of their last 6 games and even in the two losses they didn't play all that bad, losing 42-30 to Boise State and 13-0 to Utah State. In the Boise game they outgained the Broncos by 189 yards, while in the Utah State game they were outgained by just 6 yards. This is a team that is really gelling and playing well right now, while Air Force is not. The Falcons come in at 2-9 on the year with their only wins coming vs FCS foe Colgate and Army. Air Force is 0-4 on the road and has allowed 40 pg in those games, while CSU has averaged 35.3 ppg at home. The Rams are 118th vs the pass, but 49th vs the run and that should help them in this one vs the Air Force ground attack. Let's also note that Air Force is 0-9 ATS from game 10 on out as dogs. The Falcons are in way over their heads in this one as their season mercifully comes to an end with a 21+ point loss.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Memphis/ Temple Under 49: The Temple offense is not all that explosive, as they have scored just 23.5 ppg on 386.7 ypg, overall, while scoring just 23.8 ypg on the road. An that is not vs many good defenses like the one they will face in this one. The Memphis struggles this year have not been due to their defense as they come in ranked 15th in the nation in total defense, 15th vs the run and 23rd in points allowed, giving up just 20.9 ppg on the year. At home they have allowed just 22.2 ppg and their home games have averaged just 44.4 ppg this year. The Temple defense has been very poor this year, but Memphis does not have the kind of offense to take advantage. Memphis is a grind it out, conservative type of offense that ranks 114th in total offense and 108th in scoring offense, putting up just 20.3. This game should be all about field position and defense and could very well be played in the 30's.
Florida State -28.5 over FLORIDA: Florida state needs as many style points as they can get and they have been crushing teams of late, winning their last 7 games by an average of 48.1 ppg. That's incredible. The Gators would normally pose a bigger threat, but they have no offense to speak of at all and their defense is banged up as well. The Noles Blew out Clemson in Death Valley and Florida allowed Missouri to pile up 50 yards and 36 points vs them earlier in the year, plus the Gators are off embarrassing loss to an FCS team. This one will get ugly fast.
Dr. Bob
NORTH CAROLINA (-5½) 37 Duke 26
A North Carolina win here will most likely result in a 5 way tie for first place in the ACC Coastal division (if Virginia Tech takes care of Virginia) and I think the Tarheels will ge their share of first place by ending Duke's winning streak at 7 games. Despite their 9-2 record Duke isn't much better than an average FBS teams, as the Blue Devils are 0.5 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage. North Carolina is 0.6 yppl better than average for the season but the Tarheels' offense is better with Marquise Williams at quarterback and the Heals are 0.8 yppl better than average overall with their current lineup. The line has been adjusted correctly, as my math model favors UNC by 6 points, but the Heels apply to a very good 155-61-2 ATS momentum situation while Duke applies to a negative 45-86-4 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their winning streak. I like the Tarheels here.
Florida State (-27½) 34 Florida 10
Florida still has a good enough defense to stay within a big number even if the offense continues to struggle under 3rd string quarterback Skyer Mornhinweg.
WISCONSIN (-24½) 41 Penn State 12
My math model gives Wisconsin a profitable 53% chance of covering based solely on the math and the Badgers' chances are enhanced by a negative 9-52 ATS game 12 big underdog situation that applies to Penn State. I'd consider Wisconsin a Strong Opinion at -24 or less.
Alabama (-10½) 31 AUBURN 24
A lot of people don't think that Auburn is good enough to hang with Alabama, but the public and the odds makers have been underestimating the Tigers all season and they enter this game on an 8 game spread winning streak. Auburn did lose by 14 points at LSU, the best team they've faced until today, and they were certainly lucky to beat Georgia (the second best team they've faced) but the line on this game is pretty fair and the situation strongly favors the Tigers. My math model favors Alabama by 11 1/2 points but Auburn applies to a 56-11-2 ATS late season home dog off a bye angle that won on Friday with Akron over Toledo. Despite the strong general situation it's tough to go against Alabama given their 40-18-1 ATS record under coach Nick Saban when coming off a win and not favored by 30 points or more. I'll lean with Auburn based on the strong situation but I can also see a Bama blow out win here.
Baylor (-13) 35 TCU 21
The spread has been adjusted for the absence of star wide receiver Tevin Reese and RB Lache Seastrunk (888 yards at 8.7 ypr) but the total has not and the under looks like a solid play.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-3) 34 Clemson 31
I don't have an opinion on the side but both teams should be able to score a good number of points and the over looks like a solid play.
MISSOURI (-4½) 40 Texas A&M 36
Johnny Manziel had the worst game of his career in last week's 10-34 loss at LSU and now he faces another tough defense. Manziel is likely to bounce back with a more typical good performance and my math model favors Missouri by 4 1/2 points if he plays his normal game. There doesn't appear to be any line value and there are situations that apply to both sides, so the side looks like it should be left alone. The total, however, looks too low, as my math model projects 77 total points while a compensated scoring model projects 75 total points. Last week was the first time all season that A&M scored fewer than 41 points and that includes a 42 point effort against Alabama's very good defense. Missouri, meanwhile, has averaged 40 points per game against a schedule of defensive units that are 0.6 yards per play better than a Texas A&M defense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team). Missouri's offense is among the best A&M has faced this season, in the same group as Alabama, Auburn, and LSU - teams that the Aggies allowed an average of 43 points to. Texas A&M has gone over the total in 8 of 11 games this season and that trend is likely to continue. I'll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 68 points or less.
USC (-3½) 30 Ucla 21
My math sides with USC and the Trojans apply to a 155-61-2 ATS home momentum situation. I'd consider USC a Strong Opinion at -3 or less.
Wunderdog
Duke at North Carolina
Pick:North Carolina -4.5
Duke has had their best season in football in memory, and at 9-2, can close out the Coastal Division of the ACC as Champions. I still think this team is highly suspect, and not as good as their record would indicate. Overall they are average from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball - not the numbers of a 9-2 power conference team. Why are they +6 point underdogs? For starters they have won each of their last four games, but have been out-gained in three of them. North Carolina has turned a 1-5 season, and potential disaster, into a Bowl team that has won five straight. Carolina is an above average defense, and their big advantage is a passing game that has generated 8.4 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that average 7.1. North Carolina is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 at home vs. a team with a winning road record. Play on North Carolina.
Bob Balfe
Alabama -10
Auburn is a great football team and they are fun to watch, but I don't think any of us are giving Alabama credit. This is a dynasty that we will be talking about 20-30 years from now. The players on this Tide Defenses DO NOT miss tackles. Auburn has a newer head coach and I always am a true believer that teams have to go through their growing pains before they make it to the top. This would be one of those games. Betting against Alabama is never smart. The scary thing is they have been crushing teams this year and are a shell of who they were the last two years as far as big named talent. Everyone on this Bama team does their job. Today we say Roll Tide.
Andy Iskoe
Arizona +12.5
Both teams are Bowl eligible. This is a rivalry game that will impact the Pac 12 championship game although the matchup is already known with Arizona State set to play Stanford next week. But the site will be determined by this game as an ASU win will have the Sun Devils host the Cardinal. With Stanford having completed Pac 12 play they will host ASU if Arizona pulls the upset. This has been a very competitive series over the past decade with ASU winning 6 of the 10 games SU but with the teams tied 5-5 ATS. More to the point, however, is how close the games have been regardless of whether one team, both teams or neither team were having down seasons. The last 4 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less as have 7 of the last 9. The underdog is 8-2 ATS. Statistically these teams are close in most areas although ASU has the better balanced offense. Yet although Arizona is more reliant on the run they also average 188 passing ypg. ASU RB Grice (996 yds) is listed as out for this game after being injured last week. Playing at home gives ASU enough edges to call for the SU win but 3 of Arizona's 4 losses have been by 7 points or less. Only their 31-13 loss at Washington in late September was one sided. Given the series history and the teams' current form this is another close game.
Jeff Alexander
Cleveland Cavs +5
Chicago has the advantage in terms of rest but is being overvalued as a result. The fact of the matter remains, this Bulls team is offensively challenged. That's a big reason why it is 19-34 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, including 8-27 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points during this span. And, Chicago is just 7-18 ATS when playing on 2 days' rest over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 6.3 points in this spot.
SPORTS WAGERS
NORTH CAROLINA -5 over Duke
We faded Duke last week as a 7½-point choice at Wake Forest and the Deacs led most of the way. Duke was finally able to notch its ninth win of the season but they failed to cover. A lot of things have gone right for the Blue Devils this season and while we can’t take anything away from them, there comes a time when the bounces stop going your way. No question the Devils are talented and on the rise but it must be noted that the Blue Devils have been outgained by an average of 50 yards in ACC play. Having won seven in a row and going for its first 10-win season ever, the Blue Devils will have their toughest assignment of the season with some added pressure of needing a win to secure their spot against Florida State in the ACC Championship.
The Tar Heels somehow managed to lose five of its first six games but has since caught fire with five straight wins. While the Blue Devils were battling their tails off at Wake last week, North Carolina barely broke a sweat in a 80-20 romp over Old Dominion. North Carolina has cracked down on defense. Their defensive line has been outstanding since that rough start and in fact, they have held the opposition to under 400 yards of total offense in four of their past five games. North Carolina has defeated the opposition by an average of 18 points when playing at Chapel Hill and with more motivation to defeat this rival than ever before, the Tar Heels figures to play their best game of the year to close out the season. While North Carolina’s record is worse than Duke’s, the Tar Heels have more talent, especially on defense and it will all be on full display here.
New Mexico +36½ over BOISE STATE
We usually shy away from these types of games but the final week of the year is unlike any other. Had Boise State not lost to San Diego State last week, this is a game we wouldn’t even be looking at but that lost to the Aztecs destroyed the Broncos dreams and it likely destroyed their spirit too. In order for the Broncos to get a shot at Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship game, they need Wyoming, who is a 24-point dog, to defeat Utah State in Utah. That game goes off at 2:00 PM while this one kicks off at 10:00 PM. By the time the Broncos take the field here, they will know the final score between Utah State and Wyoming. In other words, when Boise State takes the field, they know they will be playing for absolutely nothing.
That means no incentive to try to really pile on a Lobos team that's been a gritty performer as a big underdog. Five-touchdown favorites are almost, by definition, talented enough to win by eight touchdowns if sufficiently motivated; they are able to "name their score," as the saying goes. But until five hours before kickoff on the blue turf, Bronco Nation will be thinking more about Wyoming than New Mexico. Asking teams like this to cover five touchdowns is a fundamental leak.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota -2 over DALLAS
Something smells a little fishy here. Dallas is 8-1 at home while the Timberwolves have just two road wins in eight games and have also lost five of their past six games overall. Despite that, the Wolves are a 1-point favorite in Dallas and that does not make sense at all. When something doesn’t appear right it should not be ignored. The oddsmakers have set a number to entice folks to bet on the home team and we expect that is precisely what will occur here. A big part of handicapping games is being able to detect a trap and while they don’t always work out, we would much rather be on the side the books don’t want us on.
The advanced stats say the Wolves are elite. In other words this team is too good to keep losing at this pace and this line strongly suggests that Minnesota’s run of poor play, especially on the road ends here.