SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. RANGERS +103 over Vancouver
OT included. The Rangers took a 2-1 lead into the third period last night but ultimately failed to hold onto that lead in a 3-2 setback in Boston yesterday afternoon. The Rangers will now play another matinée game and it’s also New York’s third game in four days. To make matters worse, the Blue Shirts return home from a five-game trip here and when you combine all of that together you get the reason why the Canucks are favored here. The Rangers will suffer a physical letdown but it’s not going to occur here because they know how important this game is to their coach. Every player in the Rangers lineup will also be jacked up to face John Tortorella as well. The Rangers did not thrive under Tortorella but they are beginning to under Alain Vigneault.
It’s actually a damn shame what Tortorella has done to the Canucks. He has taken what was an entertaining hockey team and has made them into shot blockers and penalty killers. The Canucks have two wins over their past nine games. In their 5-2 win over Ottawa on Thursday, the Canucks were outshot 38-29. Three games in four days for the Rangers mean nothing here. This one will have a playoff like atmosphere as the Rangers continue to get better under Vigneault while the Canucks get worse under Torts. We get the better team with huge motivation playing at home against a Canucks team in serious decline playing for a coach that is unfit to coach at this level with his old school style and strategies. Times have changed but Tortorella has not and he now has the Canucks playing like the Rangers did when New York lost every big game they played. Rangers are a big time fade next game out but today they are a big time play as a pooch at home. Wrong side favored.
MONTREAL -½ -105 over Toronto
Regulation only. The Canadiens have picked up points in eight of their past nine games. They’re coming off a 3-2 OT loss in Washington yesterday in a game they deserved a better fate in after taking it to the Caps for the better part of the contest. Montreal’s only regulation loss over their past nine games was a 1-0 setback at home to the Rangers. The Habs are in fine form, they have a huge edge defensively here while the Maple Leafs good fortune has run its course.
Toronto lost to Buffalo again last night, 3-2. Since November 15th, Toronto has played the Sabres three times and lost to them twice. In Toronto’s only win against Buffalo, the Leafs were outshot 35-22. Toronto was outshot again last night after allowing the Penguins 48 shots on Wednesday. The Leafs last two pathetic efforts came after losing 6-0 to Columbus. Chances are, no team in the NHL will lose to the Sabres twice this season and no team will lose by six goals to the Blue Jackets. The Leafs managed to do both of those in a span of two weeks. The Leafs winning hockey games early in the year was akin to the Denver Broncos winning games in miraculous fashion when Tim Tebow was their QB. It didn’t make sense and we’ve been warning you of this the entire season. A lot of you laughed at us but aren’t laughing anymore.
SPORTS WAGERS
Eastern Kentucky +9 over N.C. STATE
We’re always on the lookout for lesser known programs receiving significant points against well-known one’s for several reasons. The most important reason of course is that the lesser known school does not get much public backing and as a result, we get the advantage of some inflated points. We trust we found another “live” pooch here in the Eastern Kentucky Colonels. The colonels are 6-1 on the season and their start is not really a surprise. Last season they started 9-0 but played a bunch of cupcakes and nobody really took notice. Something similar is happening this season, as EKU owns a 1-2 ATS record despite their 6-1 record. This is the first time this season they are getting points but they are 14-1 ATS in last 15 as 9-point dogs or greater. The Colonels are led by Glenn Cosey, who is their leader in both scoring and assists, but they have seven other players who scored in double digits at least once this season and five of those seven scored in double digits at least twice this season. EKU’s only loss this season came against a great shooting Youngstown State team and they lost by just eight. They will not be facing a great shooting team here.
North Carolina State lacks experience and depth this season. They have made a dreadful 60.4% of their free throws hit their free throws and they have no three-point threats that can hit from downtown with any regularity. The Wolfpack are a one-dimensional offense that is quickly turning into a one-man show. Seldom do we take a team in college hoops that is under a 10-point pooch that we don’t think can win outright. The Colonels have upset potential and could very well steal a win from an unsuspecting and very average Wolfpack squad.
Chris Jordan
My complimentary play win streak is at 14-6-1, and tonight I improve upon that mark with the epic B1G battle between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines. And yes boys, I'm eating chalk - lots of it!!! I think you just may see Ohio State's most complete game, its best effort and an indicator as to why all of its supporters believe it should be in the BCS Championship game.
Coach Urban Meyer - who is already notorious for running up the score on opposing rivals, whether it was at Bowling Green, Utah or Florida - knows the only way his Buckeyes stand a chance for advancement in the BCS standings is with a blowout by huge proportions.
The Buckeyes have won eight of the last nine meetings with the lone loss coming just two years ago right here in Ann Arbor. But don't be too worried about that, as it's somewhat irrelevant this time around. See, Meyer wasn't in charge of the Buckeyes two years ago, Jim Tressel was.
Now we have the most ruthless (in a good way), vengeful (in a good way) and cut-throat (yes, in a good way) coach on our side for this game.
And even though Ohio State has already clinched a spot in next week's Big Ten championship game, I don't think the Buckeyes will overlook this one bit. First, it's obviously the biggest rivalry game of the year for them, but also, a loss knocks them out of the BCS title picture.
Now here's the deal, I'm going to tell you who the X-factor is in this game, as it may come as a shocker to you. Forget any offensive players, or the entire unit for that matter. We know the Buckeyes are going to get it done there, and will score plenty.
But how will Ohio State cover? Easy, because of its defense.
And leading the charge will be standout linebacker Ryan Shazier, a Butkus Award finalist who leads the Big Ten with 108 tackles, 19.5 of them for losses and four forced fumbles. Believe me, he is going to harrass Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner the entire game. The Wolverines, for what it's worth, have done a horrific job of protecting Gardner, and now he will have Shazier - one of the best linebackers in the nation - breathing down his neck. A couple of good pops early on, and Gardner's game will automatically be in the toilet.
Ohio State has won a school-record 23 straight games since losing to Florida in the Gator Bowl on Jan. 2, 2012, while it has covered 11 of 14 after a straight-up win and 36 of its last 51 games with a suitcase in hand. Within this series, Ohio State has covered six straight against the Wolverines - four in Michigan. Lay the road chalk boys, this one is going to be a cinch.
3♦ OHIO STATE
Jeff Benton
Saturday freebie is to ride the Dookie Express all the way to the ACC title game as they play at nearby Chapel Hill as they face the surging UNC Tar Heels.
Both schools enter with incredible momentum, as Duke has won 7 in a row straight up and they have also covered in each of their last 6 wins. North Carolina meanwhile is riding the crest of a 5 game win streak, and the Heels have covered in 6 in a row.
Which way do you go?
I say take the underdog to make it close, as the Blue Devils have covered all 4 of their away games this season, and an outright win here would vault them into the ACC Championship game as the Coastal Division representative.
North Carolina was able to put up 80 points last week in their win over Old Dominion, but the Duke defense has been able to shut the door on foes all season long, allowing just 3 touchdowns in the 4th quarter this season.
Close one in Chapel Hill as the points work with the live underdog Blue Devils.
2♦ DUKE
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Dallas Mavericks over the Minnesota Timberwolves in a revenge play at home.
Dallas flies back to Big D today pissed off at what they let slip away in Atlanta last night. Owning a 13-point lead in the 4th quarter, the Mavs watched Atlanta go on a 21-7 run to end the game for an improbable 88-87 win.
Dallas was stunned. Rick Carlisle was stunned. Mark Cuban is still puking. These are the types of games you must win if you want to contend in the playoffs. You can't lose to teams that you should beat, especially when you have a double digit lead late in the 4th quarter.
So they come back home where they are 8-1 to play a Minnesota team that kicked the crap out of them a few weeks back on the road. A Minnesota team that is 6-3 at home but just 2-6 on the road, including recent losses at Washington and at Denver.
Dallas, playing on home revenge, is a fairly good proposition, espeically when they can score with just about any team in the NBA. The T'Wolves are not only losing road games, their defense simply isn't showing up.
I see why the Mavs are favored by just a point or two even at home... because it's not like they play much defense either.
But in the 4th quarter, the Mavs will tighten that defense and use their free throw shooting percentages to pull this one out at home by seven. Take Dallas as your free play of the day.
4♦ DALLAS
Scott Delaney
My free play for today is on the Missouri Tigers over the Texas A&M Aggies in SEC action, as I don't believe Johnny Football and company stand a chance.
I know we should be in store for an offensive slugfest, given the teams we're talking about here, and the fact Johnny Manziel is involved, but I can't help but wonder if LSU left Missouri with blueprints on how to slow the Aggies down. While Manziel and company will be looking to regenerate an offense that was stifled to a season-low 10 points last week in a 24-point loss to the Bayou Bengals down at LSU, I think Mizzou is better suited to duplicate the Tigers' feat.
And even though A&M had scored at least 41 points in every game prior to last week's loss, and as good as it truly is on offense, Missouri is just as explosive, as it's scored less than 31 points just two times, including last week's 24-10 win at Mississippi. With this one being the season finale, and being played at Columbia, I don't think the Tigers are going to let Johnny Football steal the show.
This is such a great value, as the books continue to give the Aggies respect because of how dangerous Manziel is running their offense. But this number is a gift, especially at home. Since the Tigers' lone loss this season - at home back on Oct. 26, to South Carolina - they're 3-0 with wins over Tennessee by 28, at Kentucky by 31 and at Mississippi by 14. That's an average margin of 24.3 points per win.
The Aggies are mired in ATS slides of 1-4 against winning teams, 1-5 in conference play and 2-5 overall, while Mizzou checks in on ATS win streaks of 6-1 against SEC foes, 5-2 in the month of November, 5-1 when playing winning teams and 13-3 overall.
Lay the points with Missouri, whatever it may be, as it's ranging between 4 and 5.5. Won't matter, as the Tigers get it done by double digits.
3♦ MISSOURI
Brad Wilton
Florida State and Florida here on "Rivalry Weekend", and while these schools are rivals and that guarantees a passionate effort from both sides, it is clear the Florida Gators are a salmon swimming upstream in this one, and the current is just too strong.
You lose at home to Georgia Southern, and I am not sure how you can back the Gators, even with this massive impost.
Florida enters riding a 6 game losing streak, while Florida State has not lost a game this season, and the Seminoles have also covered in 9 of their 11 wins this season.
The Sems have recorded 10 of their 11 straight up wins this season by 27 points or better, so don't let the heavy road impost scare you away.
The Gators have failed 7 of their last 8 versus the spread at home, could this be Will Muschamp's last game on the Florida sidelines?
Seminoles end the Gators season with a lopsided win and cover.
4♦ FLORIDA STATE
Brett Atkins
I like the BYU Cougars this evening, laying the points in Reno to UNR.
I remember when this matchup might have been picked up by ABC, or some affiliate, knowing the game would be incredibly entertaining between a pair of high-octane offensive units. This year the matchup will fly under the radar, and nobody really cares much about either team, other than those fans in Provo, Utah and Reno, Nevada.
BYU (7-4) leads the series 4-2-2, and it clearly has a better team this season. Reno (4-7) is a shell of what it once was, and it'll take some time to get back on it feet and in the conference driver's seat it's been accustomed to in the past.
The Cougars, despite four losses on the year, average 495.6 yards per game, ranking 14th in the nation, while Nevada is further down at 48th in the country with 435.3 yards. And while it's only about 60 yards less, make note BYU's defense is 50th in the country, allowing 385.7 yards, while the Wolf Pack are a dismal 117th in the nation, allowing more than 500 yards per game.
Even further, in relation to the scoreboard, BYU is scoring 31.6 points per game (53rd) and allowing just 21.2 ppg (27th). Conversely, the Wolf Pack rank 75th nationally with a 27.3 average, and 104th across the land in allowing 35 ppg.
This will get out of hand mid-third quarter, and the Cougars will pull away for the win and cover.
4♦ BRIGHAM YOUNG
Sean Michaels
11-5 roll with comp plays (most recent being the Ravens over the Jets last Sunday) with today's selection on Missouri (-4') at home against Texas A&M.
The Tigers are one bad quarter away from an undefeated season and are currently No. 5 in the BCS poll with Texas A&M coming to Columbia today.
Missouri is coming off a solid 24-10 win at Ole Miss last week to improve to 9-2 ATS on the season with seven of those covers coming by double-digit margins. That game marked the return of quarterback James Franklin (12-19, 142 yards passing; eight carries for 42 yards) to the starting lineup.
Franklin missed last year's debacle in College Station when Texas A&M mauled Mizzou 59-29. Tonight he and his Tiger teammates avenge that loss against an Aggie squad left reeling from last Saturday's 34-10 loss at LSU.
The Bayou Tigers gave a blueprint of how to contain Johnny Manziel (16-for-41, 224 yards, 2 INTs vs. LSU) for these Tigers to replicate and they should be able to do so with a pass rush that's recorded 35 sacks this season (27 in SEC play).
The A&M defense, as you know, hasn't stopped anyone all season. It's a reason the Aggies are lucky to have won their other two SEC road games at Ole Miss and Arkansas despite giving up 38 and 33 points to a pair of offensively-challenged teams. And this is the same A&M defense that allowed Alabama to score 49, Auburn 45 and Miss State 41 when they visited College Station.
Texas A&M is 0-3 ATS on the road this season with no shot to improve that record tonight in Columbia.
2♦ MISSOURI
OC Dooley
Georgia Tech +3
It may seem ridiculous to term Georgia Tech as a percentage wager especially since they are on a dreadful 1-9 SU/ATS slide at HOME in this rivalry series against the Georgia Bulldogs. This certainly has been a disastrous season for Georgia Tech in regards to National-TV primetime appearances during the week which began with a home loss versus Virginia Tech where they were cast as a sizeable favorite and it continued with a visit to Clemson later in the campaign where the Tigers dominated them on the scoreboard. But one can forgive the Yellow Jackets for that setback a Clemson was atoning for their own massive home failure in primetime when they were dominated by Florida State. One of the reasons why it is worth TAKING the points with Georgia Tech today even though versus an opponent from the nation’s top conference is due to the fact that arguably the Atlantic Coast Conference is having their best collective season since back in the mid 1990’s which means the Yellow Jackets have been “tested” repeatedly. The other reason why the underdog is lucrative in this contest is because they are finally catching Georgia at the right time as star quarterback Aaron Murray’s career came to an end (injury) a week ago. While Murray re-wrote every quarterback record in Georgia Bulldogs history, the team late this afternoon is forced to start a reserve signal caller who is making his first starting assignment on the highway which is a difficult task. When facing awful passing opposition who averages “125 or less” yards per game through the air, Georgia is 0-6 ATS through the years. On the flipside when at HOME with Paul Johnson as their head coach and coming off outright wins three-times in a four game span, Georgia Tech is UNDEFEATED (6-0 ATS in front of their own fans) where it counts. This is year #100 of Georgia Tech’s homefield which is the nation’s oldest facility which late today will be rocking.
EZWINNERS
Auburn Tigers +10.5
Number one ranked Alabama has all the pressure on them. This is a huge rivalry game and the Tigers will be looking for revenge after being hammered by the Tide the last two years. Alabama is just 2-6 as a road favorite of eleven points or less and Auburn is 6-0 against the spread as a home underdog of 14 points or less. Take the points.
TCU Horned Frogs +14
Baylor had their BCS bubble burst last week at Oklahoma State and now are laying double digits once again on the road. The Horned Frogs have had a down season but they are a dangerous team that is rested. TCU is also 4-0 against the spread the last four times they have been a double digit home underdog. Take the points.
LT Profits
Georgia State vs Florida International
Pick : Florida International +5
The Georgia State Panthers seem to be getting too much respect here as road favorites over their fellow Panthers from Florida International, as Georgia State is 2-4 overall, 0-2 in true road games and enters this game on a three-game losing streak, and while that losing streak began with an understandable loss at Alabama, the last two losses were vs. Canisius and Elon, neither of whom is considerably better than this FIU team. Worst of all, Georgia State is ranked a dismal 311th in the country in defensive efficiency despite not facing a touch schedule outside of Alabama. FIU had a six-game winning streak snapped at South Carolina, but it did not play badly in SEC country in the 84-72 loss, shooting 48.0 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from beyond the three-point arc. FIU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall.
River City Sharps
Ball St +9
Cleveland State has played a really good schedule this year and was really competitive in their loss to Kentucky. This seems to be a good spot, after the holiday, for a letdown, so we will take a hard look at Ball State in this game. The Cardinals haver also played a good schedule and have a 1 point loss to Butler earlier in the season. Ball State has only shot the ball over 50% once this season, but fortunately, the Vikings aren't the best rebounding team, which will give Ball State the shot for some second chance points. Interesting stat here...Cleveland State is 2-9 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 2 seasons. Good enough for the Sharps to take a shot here with the doggie.