Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 5

CFL

Montreal at BC
The Alouettes look to take advantage of a BC team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games in Week 19. Montreal is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+3)

Game 495-496: Winnipeg at Calgary (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 109.150; Calgary 116.724
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 7 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Calgary by 6; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-6); Under

Game 497-498: Montreal at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 114.565; BC 114.884
Dunkel Line: Even; 57
Vegas Line: BC by 3; 54
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+3); Over

NHL

Montreal at NY Rangers
The Canadiens look to take advantage of a New York team that is 1-6 in its last 7 games as a favorite. Montreal is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+130)

Game 1-2: Boston at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.337; Toronto 11.957
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Under

Game 3-4: Buffalo at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.102; Ottawa 11.949
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+110); Over

Game 5-6: Winnipeg at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 12.415; New Jersey 11.224
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 7-8: Washington at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.039; NY Islanders 11.313
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+130); Under

Game 9-10: Montreal at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.597; NY Rangers 11.493
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+130); Under

Game 11-12: Columbus at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.622; Philadelphia 11.978
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-220); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-220); Over

Game 13-14: Anaheim at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.388; Detroit 10.147
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+145);

Game 15-16: St. Louis at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.720; Minnesota 12.929
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Over

Game 17-18: Edmonton at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.651; Phoenix 12.438
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-125); Under

Game 19-20: Nashville at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.491; San Jose 11.583
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+140); Over

Game 21-22: Pittsburgh at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.436; Los Angeles 11.216
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Under

Marc Lawrence

Syracuse at Connecticut
Play: Syracuse

This matchup between Big East ‘lowerarchy’ looks like we may have a case of WTF (Wrong Team Favored). The Huskies are ‘leaking oil’ badly (0-5 ‘ITS’ last five) and Orange fans will gladly take it as a win this afternoon in Storrs makes Syracuse bowl eligible for a second straight season. The last time that the ‘Cuse appeared in back-to-back bowl games (1999), Lance Armstrong won his first Tour De France (who cares), O.J. was selling off his Heisman to help pay off a civil lawsuit (the glove did fit) and Barbie was celebrating her 40th birthday (that Ken was a lucky doll). Well, our Midweek Alert suggests that Syracuse fans should party like it’s 1999 as the one common opponent that both the Orange and Huskies have faced to date (West Virginia) has produced an overwhelming edge in the Carrier Domer’s favor (301 net yardage). Like we said earlier, it is a case of WTF, but fortunately we know what’s going on here. ‘Cuse plus the deuce. We recommend a 1-unit play on Syracuse.

Hollywood Sports

Oregon at Washington Huskies
Prediction: Oregon

Take Oregon minus the points over an overachieving Washington team that was exposed two weeks ago in their 65-21 loss against Stanford. The favorite is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two teams -- and the Ducks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 encounters with the Huskies. Oregon comes off a 43-28 win over Washington State as a 37.5-point favorite -- but they have covered 5 of their last 6 games coming off a point spread loss. The Ducks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against conference opponents. And they have covered 11 of their last 16 road games when favored by more than ten points. Lay the points with Oregon in this one.

Matt Fargo

Louisville @ West Virginia
PICK: Louisville +13.5

Louisville has won two straight games which is the first time since 2006 that the Cardinals have won consecutive conference games. They still have an outside shot at a Big East title and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. The lone conference loss came at Cincinnati and that was a game that Louisville had a shot at winning but came up short at the end. The Cardinals are 11-10 under head coach Charlie Strong and of those 10 losses, only one has been by double-digits.

West Virginia spotted Rutgers a 10-point halftime lead last week but responded by outscoring the Scarlet Knights 20-0 in the second half to improve to 6-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big East. The Mountaineers only home loss came against top ranked LSU and since then they have dominated both opponents at home, outgaining Bowling Green and Connecticut by a combined 692 total yards. West Virginia has not been good in these spots, going 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points.

This game feature strength against strength as the Mountaineers are ranked first in the conference in total offense while Louisville is ranked first in the Big East in total defense. The Cardinals are 12th in the nation in total defense as they are allowing just 295.6 ypg and only two teams, Marshall and Cincinnati, have surpassed the 300-yard threshold. This is the best offense it has seen but teams that play such good defense and are catching big numbers turn into live underdogs.

West Virginia meanwhile is 59th in the country in scoring defense and it has allowed 31 or more points in four of its last six games. That is a good sign for Louisville which is coming off its best offensive game against an FBS opponent this season in both points scored and total yards. Strong switched offensive coordinators and quarterbacks during the season and it has paid off as they have been more consistent. West Virginia managed only 269 yards and 17 points in last year's meeting.

The Cardinals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and this includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark this season. The road team has covered four straight meetings in this series and Louisville falls into a great situation. We play on road teams after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored. This situation is 91-47 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1992. 3* Louisville Cardinals

Larry Ness

Tennessee -20

The Vols enter November on a four-game losing slide and at 3-5, find themselves in a similar position to last year. Tennessee entered November 2010 at 2-6 but went 4-0 SU and ATS, outscoring its opponents 150-52, on the way to becoming bowl-eligible. With a game November 12 at Arkansas, it seems unlikely the Vols will repeat their 4-0 November this year, but taking them here vs MTSU seems like a "no brainer." The Vols obviously miss QB Tyler Bray (65.9% completions with a 14-2 ratio before he was lost to an injury), as the team's two other QBs are completing just 41.0 percent without a TD pass while throwing five INTs. However, in MTSU, the Vols face a team which is 2-5 (wins have come against Memphis and FAU, a combined 2-14). The Blue Raiders have allowed 39.0 PPG in their five losses and one sure way to cure getting hammered by the SEC elite is to schedule a team like MTSU at home, so ones fans get to enjoy being on the other side of a 'mauling.' After facing Georgia (now 18th in the BCS), LSU (No. 1), Alabama (No. 2) and South Carolina (No. 9) the last four games, the Vols will see MTSU as "welcome relief." Sure Arkansas is next but the Vols can't possibly be "looking ahead." Not with this opportunity to execute with BIGGER & FASTER players for the first time since October 1 when the Vols hosted Buffalo. Tennessee won that game 41-10 and that margin sounds about right for this one, as well. Oh, by the way, it's Homecoming! Lay the points.

Great Lakes Sports

Notre Dame at Wake Forest
Play: Notre Dame

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a perfect 4-0 ATS when playing in the month of November their last four games, and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a solid 5-2 ATS vs the ACC Conference their last seven games. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish is also a very nice 6-2 ATS their last eight games in the role of a road favorite of 10.5 points or greater their last eight games, and they are a stunning 7-3 ATS when playing in their last ten road games. We look for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to roll over the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in this key non conference showdown and grab the road ATS Win & Cover this Saturday.

Tony George

South Carolina vs. Arkansas
Play: Arkansas -5

Taking the high flying Razorbacks offense at home in this one. South Carolina’s defense is carrying them but that will not happen here against the #1 pass offense in the SEC, at home. South Carolina’s offense has just been deplorable as of late scoring just 14 against Tennessee and Miss. St. in those 2 games, and with more than a few 3 and outs in this game, look for Arkansas to get their pass offense going and get out in front and force Carolina to play from behind, something they do not do well. Arkansas will test the rush defense for SC here who allows less than 90 yards a game. Arkansas can flat out balance their attack with a decent ground game set up and balance their passing out of play action and Arkansas should be successful. In a battle of Top 10 teams out of the SEC, Arkansas a TD or more better at home. The Gamecocks just 2-8 ATS the last 10 meetings.

Sean Murphy

Michigan @ Iowa
PICK: Iowa +4

Michigan got back in the good books with most bettors last week, crushing Purdue 36-14. We were on board to cash that ticket, but we'll jump ship this Saturday, and back Iowa in the home underdog role.

The Wolverines have really faced only one true road test this season, and they failed miserably in that game, falling 28-14 at Michigan State. It's worth noting that this will be Michigan's third time hitting the road in its last four games, but will only mark its third road game of the season.

Iowa has been sneaky-good at home this season, going a perfect 5-0 SU and cashing three of four tickets against FBS opposition.

The Hawkeyes are however, coming off back-to-back ATS losses at the hands of Indiana at home, and most recently on the road against Minnesota. They did manage to outgain both of those opponents, and keep in mind, they won the game against Indiana by 21 points.

Iowa is a good fit as a home underdog against a team like Michigan. The Hawkeyes have a young quarterback that takes care of the football in James Vandenberg (17 touchdowns and four interceptions this season), and a running game that can churn out yardage and move the chains, averaging 159 rush yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush this season.

Iowa's achilles heel on defense has been against the pass, allowing 7.3 yards per pass play this season. Michigan doesn't figure to expose that weakness however. While the Wolverines have hit their share of big plays through the air, QB Denard Robinson has completed only 54.8% of his passes for 1,423 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions this season.

On the flip side, Michigan has had some trouble defending the run, giving up 4.4 ypr overall, and 5.0 ypr in two road games.

Iowa has had plenty of success against Michigan over the years, including back-to-back wins in this series over the last two years. The Hawkeyes are 4-3 SU in the last seven matchups between the two schools.

We'll take the points in this spot, but we might not need them. Take Iowa.

Steve Janus

Michigan/Iowa OVER 57.5

These two teams combined for 66 points in a 38-28 Iowa win at Michigan last year. I think there is a great chance that they score even more than that this time around. The oddsmakers have been raising this total like crazy to try and get people on the under, but they still don't have it high enough to keep me away.

Iowa is coming off a miserable 21-22 loss at Minnesota last week, a game they were favored by 15 points. While Iowa scored just 21 points, they should have had closer to 40 points if they had just executed in Minnesota territory. Iowa had 446 yard of total offense in the loss. Look for the Hawkeyes offense to get back on track at home, where they are averaging 39 points and just over 430 yards of offense.

If you look at Michigan's defensive numbers you might think Iowa will struggle offensively. The Wolverines are 48th against the run (138.3) and 25th against the pass (194.6). However, that defense has not been all that great on the road. Michigan is allowing 26 points and 386 yards a game outside of the Big House.

With Michigan coming in averaging 34.7 ppg you should already be thinking shootout in Iowa City, but we haven't even got into just how bad the Iowa defense is in 2011. Iowa is 66th against the run (163.6 ppg) and 75th against the pass (238.6). What Michigan does best is run the ball with Denard Robinson and Fitzgerald Troussaint. Iowa has struggled against mobile quarterbacks who like to run the ball. Just a couple weeks back the Hawkeyes allowed Indiana quarterback Tre Roberson to rush for 84 yards on 16 attempts. Just imagine what Robinson is going to do to this defense on Saturday!

The OVER is 12-5 in Wolverines last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 6-2 in Hawkeyes last 8 games as a home underdog, 13-4 in Hawkeyes last 17 home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game since 1992! BET THE OVER 57.5!

Tom Stryker

Missouri vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor -2½

After opening the season with three straight up wins over TCU, Stephen F. Austin and Rice, Baylor has hit the skids in their last four battles posting a weak 1-3 SU record. With three of their next five contests inside the friendly confines of Floyd Casey Stadium, the Bears need to protect their hometurf if they have visions of going bowling this season.

Off its shocking 38-31 victory at College Station last Saturday, Missouri is ripe for a beating too. The Tigers (+10’) stunned the Aggies and they’ll look to do the same to the Bears in this their final true road game of the regular season. If my college football database has anything to do with the outcome of this game, Mizzou won’t accomplish its mission. Since 1980, teams coming off a straight up win at Texas A&M are a soft 16-27 ATS in their next game.

At home, Baylor has played extremely well this season. The Bears have posted a 4-0 SU record and knocked off TCU, Stephen F. Austin, Rice and Iowa State in the process. Equally impressive, as home chalk, BU has posted a decent 16-10 ATS mark in its last 26 tries. In comparison, Missouri has struggled something fierce in the second of two or more away notching a disturbing 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS record in its last 10 tries.

Under the direction of quarterback Robert Griffin III, the Bears have been a force offensively. Baylor is averaging 41.4 points and 560.0 yards per game. That’s good enough to rank ninth in the nation in scoring and third in total offense! UB is the only FBS school that averages over 300 yards per game passing and 200 yards per game rushing! Matched up against a Tigers secondary that allows an average of 250.4 yards per game and is currently ranked 94th in the nation, Griffin should have a monster night!

Turnovers killed the Bears in their 59-24 loss at Oklahoma State last Saturday. Baylor’s first eight possessions ended in Cowboys territory but, thanks to three fumbles, two picks and two drives that ended on downs, the Bears only had three points to show for their work. Provided head coach Art Briles’ kids take care of the football, they should have no trouble racking up points and picking up the win. Take Baylor!

EZWINNERS

Oklahoma Sooners -14

After losing at home to Texas Tech the Sooners will need to blow the doors off of their opponents the rest of the season and hope some teams above them lose to try to climb back into the national title hunt. Oklahoma did just that last week as the dismantled an undefeated Kansas State team on the road and I expect them to do the same in this game against the Aggies. Texas A&M has not lived up to the hype this season. Their defense has blown multiple halftime leads this season and they really struggle to stop the top offensive teams that they have faced. That is not a good sign of things to come as they face the quarterback Landry Jones and the high powered Sooner offense that has averaged over 85 offensive plays per game at home this season. The Aggies defense is going to get worn out by the pace of this game and on the other side of the ball I don't expect the Aggies to match scores with Oklahoma for long. The Aggies offense looked pretty pathetic in their home loss to Missouri last week and I expect them to be blown out here. The Aggies are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six visits to Norman. Lay the points.

Freddy Wills

Syracuse vs. Connecticut
Play: Connecticut -1½

Uconn is 22-8 ATS following an ATS loss, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Basically whomever is home usually wins. Syracuse beat West Virginia at home, but then fell 27-10 to Louisville. Uconn has 3 extra days of preparation that should benefit them. This is a team that was right in their game vs. West Virginia and beat USF at home holding them to 10 points. Now the key is Uconn's pass defense that took a huge hit vs. Pitt as Sunseri beat them for 419 yards, but I think they can get away from that type of game by doing what they do best running the ball. Syracuse allowing 4.69 yards per game on the road on the ground and Uconn finally found their guy in Lyle McCombs 25 carries for 124 yards in his last game. CT defense is in the Top 30 in run defense, sacks and tackles for loss. Syracuse will have it's hands full their offense is not nearly the same on the road and they continue to creat penalty after penalty including 12 in their last game while Uconn is extremely strong up front and play mistake free football as they are +4 in turnover margin on the year. I think they should be able to get themselves in manageable 3rd downs for the first time this year as Syracuse is allowing 50% conversions on third down in their road games this year. It's not like they are playing great teams they almost lost to Tulane 37-34. Don't sleep on QB Johny McEntree as he came out in the 2nd half 15-20 for 173 yards and 2TD's vs. Pitt and I think he can be efficient and keep Syracuse on their heels.

Spartan

Missouri +2.5

Missouri finally awoke last saturday down in College Station and rallied after being down to Texas A&M and gutted out a much needed overtime victory over the Aggies. Tigers QB James Franklin is in his first year under center for Mizzou and becoming more comfortable in his role as a leader on the field. One thing that is helping Franklin is the fact that Mizzou OC David Yost is finally getting it through his thick head that the Tigers can indeed run the ball with Henry Josey. Fact is Yost has never seen a pass play he doesn't like. Gary Pinkel finally stepped in and reigned him in some and with a more balanced attack to take a lot of the pressure off Franklin the results are starting to show. Add in the fact that Baylor is downright awful at defending the run and it stacks up favorably for Missouri. Missouri is hell bent on salvaging what has been a season that's fallen well short of expectations. Griffin and the Bears will get their points but trust me guys, you're getting the better football team here and some points. Missouri is the right side here.

James Patrick Sports

Central Michigan vs. Kent State

Difficult to make the case for sloppy CMU side that’s (1-8) vs. the points, 114th in TO margin, has defensive injuries, can’t punt, and can’t rush the passer. Kent not much better, but Golden Flashes should get a boost from the crowd and rare national TV appearance. Chip QB Radcliff will be tested by Flash DE Nix & 32nd-ranked Kent defense. The Chippewas are (0-7) ATS in their last (7) road games and(2-5-1) ATS in their last (8) Friday games. Big Game James Patrick's Friday NCAA College Football complimentary selection is on Kent State Golden Flashes.