TOUTHOUSE
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Pick: Kansas State +21.5
Prediction: The 14th-ranked Kansas State Wildcats (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) will be looking to get back in the win column after suffering a loss the last time out while simultaneously trying to hand the third-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) their first loss of the season when they meet at Boone Pickens Stadium on Saturday. K-State was blown out of the water in its 58-17 loss to Oklahoma as a 13-point home underdog in Week 9 while Oklahoma State rolled to an easy 59-24 win over Baylor to cash in as a 14.5-point home favorite to move to a perfect 7-0 ATS over their L/7 games. The Cowboys have won two straight in this series and three of the L/4 meetings overall and I like them to win this game at home to extend their modest winning streak over the Wildcats. However, I'm going to back the K-State Wildcats to cover the three-touchdown spread as they've gone 5-2 ATS in the L/7 meetings against Oklahoma State. Kansas State is also 7-1 ATS in its L/8 road games against a team with a winning home record and I believe they've got just enough juice to get the job done in this one!
South Carolina vs. Arkansas
Pick: Arkansas -5
Prediction: The ninth-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) may have a higher ranking than the seventh-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) but I don't like them to pull off the road upset this week or cover the spread in this contest Touthouse college football bettors. South Carolina picked up a solid 14-3 win against Tennessee the last time out to cover the spread as a 3.5-point road favorite and move to 2-1 ATS over its last trio of games. Arkansas is coming off an even closer 31-28 win against Vanderbilt in Week 9 in which they failed to cash in against the NFL betting line as an 8-point road favorite to fall to 0-2 ATS over its last pair of games. Still, the Razorbacks have gone 8-2 ATS in their L/10 games against South Carolina and 5-1 ATS in their last half-dozen home games against the Gamecocks. The Favorite in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and Arkansas has covered the spread in each of its last two home games. I'm not sure South Carolina is quite as good as most people think, leading me to believe they're going to lose by at least a touchdown in this one!
Oregon vs. Washington
Pick: Washington +16.5
Prediction: The eighth-ranked Oregon Ducks (7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) have won seven consecutive games since dropping its regular season opener and have beaten the Washington Huskies (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) seven straight times when the Pac-12 rivals meet in their annual showdown. Oregon is coming off a stellar 43-28 win against Washington State on Saturday but failed to cover the spread as a whopping 37.5-point home favorite to fall to 1-1-1 ATS over the last three games. Washington picked up a solid 42-31 win over Arizona in Week 9 to cover the NCAAF betting odds as a slight 3.5-point home favorite to improve to a stellar 6-1 ATS over its last seven games. I like Oregon to win this game straight up, but I really don't like the high spread in this contest at all – which is why I'm going to urge Touthouse college football gamblers to play the Washington Huskies to cover the spread with just a bit of room to spare. I know Washington averages almost 12 fewer points per game than the Ducks – while also allowing an identical dozen points per game more than their conference rivals – but I like the Huskies to get some revenge for their recent string of blowout losses against the Ducks!
Dave Price
1 Unit Texas Tech +14.5
This line is an overreaction to Tech's shocking blowout loss to Iowa State last week. We can't forget that the Red Raiders were in a major letdown spot following their surprise victory over Oklahoma. Texas Tech has the passing attack to give the Longhorns problems. In fact, Texas is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game since the beginning of last season. In addition, Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an upset loss at home. Texas has only managed 10 point wins over the Red Raiders the last 2 seasons, and I can't see the Longhorns winning this one by any more than that. We'll take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Kansas +14.5
There are two strong systems in favor of Kansas. First off, plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (IOWA ST) after allowing 14 points or less last game and matched up against an opponent that has endured 2 straight losses by 17 or more points are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Teams in this situation have been favorites of 16.1 points on average but have only won by an average of 12.1 points. This system is a tremendous 17-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Secondly, plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (KANSAS) after 5 or more consecutive straight up losses, in weeks 10 through 13, are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS the last 10 seasons. These teams have been 15.7-point underdogs on average but have only lost by an average of 8.5 points. This system is an outstanding 19-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Kansas, which played the Cyclones to a 12-point game on the road last season, knows this is its best chance to earn a conference win. Look for Kansas to cover this number behind an inspired performance Saturday.
Tony Stoffo
Houston vs. UAB
Play: Houston -27.5
The Cougars and Case Keenum hit the road this week to take on the UAB Blazers, and it should be another crazy blowout win here for Houston. Houston aerial attack will be facing a UAB defense that has these defensive rankings. Total Yards rank 115th Passing Yards rank 108th Rushing Yards rank 98th points allowed rank 11th To make you understand a little better this UAB defense is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 71% of their passes. And they haven't faced a quarterback like their going to see today in Case Keenum. Plus what really makes me like Houston in this spot is that the blazers have been turnover prone as of late turning over the ball 10 times. This will be deadly against the Houston scoring machine. And finally the weather in Birmingham will be perfect with light winds to 7 MPH. So Keenum will have no problems here this evening. So as you can see the Cougars name the score here tonight.
Jim Feist
Florida Intl vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS) started with a 14-3 loss to Kentucky and had a surprising win over Middle Tennessee State, 36-33 in double OT, so they have overachieved all year. They run a West Coast offense behind junior QB Kawaun Jakes and talented senior RB Bobby Rainey (1,649 yds last season) has 996 yards and has topped 100 yards in 12 of the last 13 games. The Hilltoppers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 conference games. WK is no longer a football laughingstock, playing with fire every week now, plus they have home field. Play Western Kentucky!
Jack Clayton
Ole Miss/Kentucky Over
The Mississippi Rebels (2-6 SU, 3-4 ATS) have Coach Houston Nutt, a good offensive mind, averaging 20 points and 130 yards rushing behind senior RB Brandon Bolden. And the over is 21-7-1 in the Kentucky Wildcats last 29 home games. Play Ole Miss/Kentucky Over the total.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Baylor -2.5
Motivated by back-to-back road losses to Texas A&M and Oklahoma State, expect the Bears to bounce back strong at home where they are 4-0 SU and ATS this season. This one also has the makings of a letdown for Mizzou, who is playing its second straight road game and is coming off a big upset win over Texas A&M. Prior to that victory, the Tigers were 0-3 on the road. Baylor boasts one of the very best offenses in the country. It ranks No. 3 in total offense with 559.4 yards per game and No. 9 in scoring with 41.4 points per game. The Bears do most of their damage through the air with Robert Griffin III. They rank sixth in the country with 356.3 passing yards per game. This doesn't bode well for a Missouri defense that ranks 94th in the nation against the pass with 250.4 yards allowed per game. Mizzou's pass defense has been even worse on the road, where it is allowing opponents to throw for 316 yards on average with a nearly 71% completion rate. Also, Mizzou is 0-6 ATS since the beginning of the 2009 season when up against good passing teams that average 8 or more passing yards per attempt. The Tigers have lost to these foes by an average score of 33.0 to 17.8. When dealing with a conference matchup between two explosive offensive teams that average 34.0 or more points per game, it makes a lot of sense to take the home favorite. That's because the home fave has covered the spread 41 of 58 times in this situation over the last 10 seasons. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less, and we'll play them in the small chalk Saturday.
Jack Jones
Cincinnati Bearcats -3
Cincinnati has been the best team in the Big East this season. I see no signs of that changing Saturday as they go into Pittsburgh and come away with a victory. The short-handed Panthers are no match for the Bearcats in this one.
Cincinnati is 6-1 on the season, and they've reeled off five straight victories heading into this one while going 4-1 ATS in the process. The Bearcats are scoring 41.0 points/game and averaging 433.9 yards/game, while allowing 19.0 points/game and 358.4 yards/game.
Pittsburgh is 4-4 on the season. The Panthers are averaging 26.5 points and 365.5 yards/game, while allowing 23.5 points and 364 yards/game. Pittsburgh has been rushing for a solid 151 yards/game this year, but their running game took a big hit last week.
Star running back Ray Graham suffered a knee injury against Connecticut last week and he's now out for the season. This is a huge blow to Pittsburgh's offense as Graham was their leading rusher with 964 yards (5.9/carry) and nine touchdowns. Their second-leading rusher is Zach Brown, who has 129 rushing yards (3.1/carry) and four touchdowns on the season. Graham is simply irreplaceable.
Pittsburgh is going to be one-dimensional Saturday as they'll have to rely on quarterback Tino Sunseri to carry the load. Sunseri has thrown only seven touchdowns to seven interceptions on the season, and he's not capable of carrying his team to victory against these explosive Bearcats.
Cincinnati can beat you on the ground and through the air, which is why I believe they are the best team in the Big East to this point. The Bearcats are rushing for 200 yards/game (5.1/carry) behind underrated running back Isaiah Pead (703 yards, 6.2/carry, eight TD). They are throwing for 234 yards/game as well. Quarterback Zach Collaros (1,576 passing yards, 14 TD, six INT) is also second on the team in rushing (225 yards, six TD). His dual-threat ability makes this offense tough to tame.
Pittsburgh is 1-11 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Bet Cincinnati Saturday.
Black Widow
1* on Texas Tech +14.5
Odds makers are putting too much stock into Texas Tech's bad loss to Iowa State last week. But that loss was understandable, considering they had beaten Oklahoma on the road the previous week, putting an end to the Sooners' 39-game home winning streak. The Red Raiders are still one of the better teams in the Big 12, and they are in the same class at Texas. Odds makers are also putting too much stock into the Longhorns' 43-0 win over Kansas last week. The Longhorns had lost their previous two games to Oklahoma (17-55) and to Oklahoma State (26-38). Texas still doesn't have a quality win on the season, and asking them to win by more than two touchdowns Saturday is simply asking too much. Tech's two losses other than the ISU setback came against Texas A&M by 5 points, and Kansas State by 7 points. The Red Raiders outgained the Aggies 523-393, and they outgained the Wildcats 580-339 in games they should have won. Tech is scoring 38.9 points/game this season and averaging 508 total yards/game overall. The Red Raiders are 3-0 on the road this year, scoring 48.3 points/game and averaging 575 total yards/game. They have the kind of offense that will give Texas fits. The Longhorns allowed 453 total yards to Oklahoma and 420 total yards to Oklahoma State, which are two offenses similar to Texas Tech's. The Red Raiders are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1992. Texas is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Tech is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) off a home loss since 1992. The Longhorns are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons. As you can see, the Red Raiders have been excellent at bouncing back from bad home losses, and I look for them to do just that Saturday. Take Texas Tech and the points.
JR O'Donnell
Alabama -5
Our take on the Big Game everyone is talking about has that the #1 & #2 teams in all the polls playing for the first time since 2006, and this is the first matchup of #1 vs #2 at home in ALABAMA history. LSU has outgained the Tide in "4" of the last "5" games ,and coach Les Miles is 4-2 vs. ALA, the first Tiger coach to win "4' against the Tide. QB Jarrett Lee of LSU averages 156 yds/g, 63% completions & has a 13-1 TD to INT ratio. He is #12 in pass efficiency, but has never played a defense of this quality. Tide QB Joe MCarron has thrown for 208 yds/g, 67% completions & a "10" TD to "3" INT ratio. RB Trent Richardson for BAMA has rushed for 989 yards, 6.6 yds/c (#7 FBS) and "18" TD. A sterling performance here would make him the Heisman favorite! Saban is 5-0 off revenge in his career, but LSU is 30-1 SU since 06 in away games starting at 6 PM or later. Counter that with BAMA being 25-1 SU at home since 2007! POWER RATED @ -7.7 POINTS..We note that the Tide has the WAY better "D"imo & better Head Coach, best player on the field in Richardson, and is at home before a record breaking crowd (tickets scalped at $2K wow). we are "ROLLING WITH TIDE"!
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
HAWAII -3.5 over Utah State: This has not been a good series for the Aggies as they have gone just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and they have been outscored by 21.3 ppg in the 6 games, plus they have lost their last 3 played here by an average o0f 18.3 ppg. The Aggies have a good offense, but it's all on the ground as they rank 6th in rushing (282 ypg), but 103rd in passing (168 ypg). The problem for the Aggies today is that they will be facing a Hawaii defense that is pretty good vs the run, allowing just 108.2 ypg and 3.3 ypc. If the Aggies can't run then it will be very difficult for them to stay close in this game. The Hawaii offense had a rough showing last week, but that doesn't usually happen 2 weeks in a row. Hawaii comes in ranked 38th in total offense 432 ypg) and 31st in scoring (34.2 ppg), but the real power behind this offense is the passing game where they rank 8th, putting up 329 ypg. At home this offense has been real scary as they have put up 45 ppg and 494 ypg, while outscoring their opponents by 23.3 ppg on the Islands. Utah State does have a few statistical edges in this one, but this game is on the Islands and the Aggies really don't play well here. I expect the Rainbows to jump out to a good lead, which will make it hard for the Aggies running game to catch up. Hawaii by 10+ here.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
ALABAMA -4.5 over LSU: The game of the year takes place in early November and not in January this season. The keys to this game will be defense and the running game and the Tide has edges in both. The LSU offense is built around a running game that ranks 31st putting up 191.9 ypg and they also average 4.3 ypc. LSU is a run based offense that takes to the ground in 2 thirds of their plays. The problem for them this week is that they will be facing an amazing Alabama run defense that is allowing just 44.7 ypg and 1.9 ypc. Both numbers are tops in the Nation and they are even stingier at home, allowing just 41.7 ypg on the ground and 1.7 ypc. This is one tough defense that isn't just good vs the run, but they are also ranked 2nd in the nation vs the pass (136 ypg). Last year the Tigers did get 225 yards on the ground vs Bama, but just 20 yards passing in their 24-21 win, but in looking at the numbers above we can see that that won't happen again. The LSU defense is no slouch as they come in ranked 4th overall (251 ypg) and 2nd in points allowed (11.5 ppg), but they have struggled on defense a bit when playing away from home as they have allowed 244 ypg passing and they did allow over 500 yards on the road to a very good West Virginia offense. The Bama offense has been very good this year as they are 23rd overall (458 ypg) and 12th in points scored (39.2 ppg), plus they have a Heisman candidate at RB in Trent Richardson, whose has helped this team to 12th in the nation in rushing with 229 ypg and hey have averaged 5.4 ypc. LSU is 81st in total offense, but a solid 13th in scoring (39.2 ppg) and that is a direct result of them getting a lot of TO's and short fields off the other teams mistakes, but Bama will not make those kind of mistakes. LSU will have to work the whole field in this one and that will not be easy. Bama has the clear cut edge on offense and the edge on defense as well, plus don't forget about the huge homefield edge and the revenge factor. This is all just too much for LSU to overcome as Bama wins this one rather easily. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- As coach of Alabama, Nick Saban is 17-4 ATS following a game in which they gained 6.25 yards per play or better.
3 UNIT PLAYS
OKLAHOMA -13 over Texas A&M: Last year the Sooners were upset by these Aggies 33-19, after Oklahoma had won the previous 3 meetings by an average of 40.3 ppg. Today I look for the Sooners to exact some revenge. The Aggies offense is 7th in the nation overall (520 ypg) and 14th in scoring (39.2 ppg), but it's on the defensive end that will not allow the Aggies to keep this one close. The Aggies are 91st in total defense, allowing 424 ypg, plus they are dead last in the Nation in pass defense, allowing 318 ypg. That worst ranked passing defense gets to face the 2nd ranked passing offense, as Oklahoma comes in putting up 397 ypg through the air, with Landry Jones hitting 66% of his passes with 26 TD's and 9 INT's. Oh this Oklahoma passing game is gonna have a filed day vs the A&M pass defense.Let us also note the fact that Oklahoma has put up 611 ypg and 46.2 ppg. Ryan Tannehill has had a good year, but he will be going up against an Oklahoma defense that will be very fired up to atone for their performance the last time they were on this field (41-38 loss to Texas Tech). The Sooners have allowed 17 or less points in 4 of their last 5 games and they will be able to slow down Texas A&M here. Oklahoma just has too much offense and just enough defense to think that they can't win this one going away. Sooners by 17+ here. KEY TREND--- The Aggies are 2-41 ATS when they lose the game outright on the road.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Oklahoma State/ Knasas State Over 69.5: You want points? This game will have them. Oklahoma State comes in as the 2nd ranked scoring team in the nation at 49.9 ppg and they are 4th in total offense (551 ypg), but that is not the best of their numbers as OSU has put up 56.8 ppg and 615 ypg at home on the year. 56.8. Well that means we just need 14 points from KSU. Ok I don't think OSU will get 57 points in this one, but they will still get a ton of points. KSU played a couple of FCS teams to mstart the year and their defense looked really good in those games, but this defense has really shown some kinks in the armor when taking on FBS foes. KSU is 103rd in passing daefense overall, but when taking on FBS teams they are ranking 113th in passing defense, allowing 300.6 ypg. Now they must take on the 4th ranked passing offense of OSU and a team that passes for 405 ypg at home. I can see weedon and company purtting up some big numbers in this one, so may 57 points is not out of the question. LOL. I don't think we will need that many from OSU as I expect the Wildcats to put up a bunch of points themselves. The KSU offense is just 93rd overall (340 ypg), but a solid 41st in scoring (31.5 ppg). The Jayhawks do have a very good ground game, putting up 209.9 ypg (20th) and that ground game should suck in those LB's and open up some throwing lanes for their struggling pass offense to take advantage of. Now as good as the OSU offense has been , their defense has been just as bad. The Cowboys come in ranked 110th overall (455.6 ypg), 101st vs the pass (270.1 ypg) and 84th vs the run (185.5 ypg), plus they have allowed 26.5 ppg overall and 345 ypg passing and 25 ppg at home this year. Verses this defense I see no reason why KSU can't get 24-28 points. KSU will try to run and eat some clock, but they will most likely have to abandon that game plan once they fall behind by a few scores and I fully expect that to happen. OSU is in a fight for a BCS berth and i'm sure they will go all out to score and score some more and maybe even try and run it up in the end. KSU should be good for 24+ points in this one, while I see no reason why OSU won't get at least 48 of their own points. This game hit's the 70's with ease. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The OU is 18-1 when Oklahoma State is at home after scoring 31+ points in 2 straight games.
2 UNIT PLAYS
PITTSBURGH +3.5 over Cincinnati: Pittsburgh is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 conference games, while Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 conference games. The Panthers have struggled this year going 4-4 overall, but they are 2-1 in the Big East, including 2-0 at home where they have outscored their opponents by 16 ppg. Cincinnati is 6-1 overall and 2-0 in the Big East and they are playing well right now having won 5 in a row after their lone loss at Tennessee. Uconn only neat S. Florida by 3 and outgained them by 12 yards, while Pitt beat that same team by 27 points and outgained them 98 yards. Another red flag for the Bearcats is the fact that they were outgained vs Akron despite winning the game by 45 points. On the year, vs FBS teams, the Bearcats have outgained their opponents by just 40.3 ppg and that really shows that this team has been more lucky than good. Well the luck runs out here as Pitt wins this one outright.
Michigan State/ Minnesota Under 46.5: The Spartans have to be drained heading into this one after facing OSU, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska the last 4 weeks, so I don't expect their offense to be fully up for this one. Their offense does put up 36 ppg at home and the Gophers allow 40.7 ppg on the road, but I don't expect the Spartan's offense to go hog wild in this one. Minnesota does average 18 ppg and 304 ypg overall, but on the road they have put up just 11.3 ppg and 231 ypg, while the Spartans are allowing just 11.6 mppg and 221 ypg at home. At most I see Sparty getting 35 points, while the Gophers will be held to single digits, giving us a good play on the Under.
1 UNIT PLAY
UCLA +8.5 over Arizona State: The Bruins showed a lot of heart in their last game vs the Bears and I feel that will spill over to this one. They are also just 2-2 in the Pac-12, but those 2 losses were to Stanford and Arizona on the road. ASU is just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings and they are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10, while UCLA has gone 12-3 ATS at home vs a team with a winning record. Look for UCLA to keep this one close.
Marc Lawrence
Utah at Arizona
Play: Utah
The ‘wise guys’ were all over the Wildcats last week in Washington, dropping an opening line of 6.5 to 3.5 by kickoff – only to walk away with dunce caps intact. We’re not about to make that mistake this week, not with the Utes owning 141 YPG the superior defense. Yes, Utah’s first season in the Pac-12 has gone to hell in a hand basket with the loss of QB Jordan Wynn in the fourth game of the campaign, but they can salvage the season and hit the alleys for the ninth straight year with two wins in their final four games. They have only one league win but the schedule eases up starting tonight in Tucson. The Utes’ 22nd-ranked defense has been holding the team together while limiting foes to season-low yards in two of their last three games and that, once again, figures to be the case against Arizona’s one-dimension attack (No. 3 in passing, No. 108 in rushing). With the Wildcats riding a 2-8 ATS streak as conference favorites, they simply can't be trusted here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Utah.
John Ryan
Houston Cougars at UAB
Prediction: UAB
5* graded play on the UAB Blazers as they host No. 13 Houston set to start at 7:00 PM ET. This is a game where the public now has forced this line in insanely high levels with Houston favored by 28 -105 at the majority of sports books. This line opened at an already inflated 25 ? and has moved significantly to the current 28 point level. Although I do not believe you will need the extra half point working an order to get 28 ? provides for a remarkable betting opportunity. Of all best made this week on this game 76% of them have been on the Houston Cougars. It has been my experience for 18 seasons that when the public gets to an extreme level of 75% of more bets being made on the same team a red flag is confirmed. Simply, sports books do not go bankrupt because the public beats them. This is a tool I have used in conjunction with my complete methodology to handicap the best possible opportunities. Although the Blazers are just 1-8 on the season, their defense has improved significant over the last four games. In the first four games of the season the Blazers were losing in the stats by an average of 251 yards per game. Over the last four games they have been losing in the stats by just 50 yards per game showing that they are becoming a far greater opponent for any team they play. The Houston Cougars ranks first in the FBS gaining 453.3 passing yards per game, 60th gaining 159.1 rushing yards per game, 59th allowing 224.1 passing yards per game, 87th allowing 192.4 rushing yards per game, and 50th allowing 24.8 points per game. UAB Blazers rank 61st in the FBS gaining 228.1 passing yards per game, 101st gaining 108.3 rushing yards per game, 102nd allowing 284.9 passing yards per game, 93rd allowing 196.4 rushing yards per game, and 111th allowing 35 points per game. Based on the ranking you can easily see how the public is betting Houston to win this game big. However, these rankings are significantly skewed and do not reflect the vast improvement that UAB has accomplished on defense. Moreover, I do think that UAB will be able to score on a suspect Houston defense and make this game far closer than the 28 point spread. Houston is off a huge 73-34 win over Rice and easily covered the 27 point line. The total was coincidentally 73 ? so the game played over by 33 ? points. However, UAB is on a nice 5-1 ATS run when facing an opponent off a 28 or more points win. Houston is also in a series of weak winning roles for this game. Cougars are a money burning 10-29 ATS losing 21.9 units per on e unit wagered in road games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game since 1992; 0-9 ATS losing 9.9 units per one unit wagered in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1992; 3-12 ATS losing 10.2 units in road games after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games since 1992; 0-7 ATS losing 7.7 units per on unit wagered in road games after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons; 4-18 ATS losing 15.8 units per one unit wagered in road games after gaining 525 or more total yards per game over their last two games since 1992. Houston has played a very week schedule this season. Not to take away from quarterback Case Keenum?s record breaking performances, but think what some of the offensive stars on the LSU and Alabama squads would have accomplished against the same level of competition. So, even if Houston goes 12-0 they will get minimal BCS attention. Further, UAB has played a vastly more difficult schedule and I strongly believe this will serve them well in this game. Take the UAB Blazers.
Rob Vinciletti
UTEP vs. Rice
Play: UTEP -1
Rice fits a negative system here today the plays against home favorites of less than 5 off a road dog straight up and ats loss if they allowed 40 or more and are playing an opponent that comes in off a home loss. These weak home favorites are just 11-34 ats long term. Utep has edges in yardage gained and allowed on both sides of the ball and has covered 5 of the last 6 as a dog. Rice has lost 11 of 15 off back to back losses and 6 of 7 at home when the line total is 49.5 to 56. Look for Utep to emerge with the win here today.
Scott Spreitzer
Northwestern @ Nebraska
PICK: Under 62.5
The Nebraska starting defense finally earned their famed "Blackshirts" in last week's win over Michigan State. We had Nebraska on these pages and cashed easily. The Huskers did begin "clicking" in the third quarter of the Ohio State game and the improved play on both sides of the line of scrimmage continued the following game in a win over Minnesota. There were several adjustments and improvements made during Nebraska's bye week which fell between the contests with Ohio State and Minnesota. But as much as anything else, last week, Nebraska faced a traditional style QB in Kirk Cousins. The way Nebraska plays defense, as close to a pro style as you'll find, the Huskers have their greatest success defending drop-back QBs. That's the case again this week. Northwestern signal caller Dan Persa wants to throw the ball and not worry about keeping defenses honest with his feet. Despite their strong offensive numbers, I believe the Wildcat offense is in for a long afternoon. If Nebraska gets in front like I believe they will, they'll do the same thing this week that they did against the Spartans -- they'll run first and throw short passes. Add it up and we have a play on the Under between Northwestern & Nebraska on Saturday afternoon.