Teddy Covers
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
PICK: Cincinnati -3
Cincinnati has been the best team in the Big East all season, but the betting markets have been reluctant to afford the Bearcats their full respect. Make no mistake about it – this team has been tremendous on both sides of the football. Fresh and rested off a bye week, look for the Bearcats to avenge their season ending home loss to Pitt last December.
The Bearcats didn’t allow an opposing offense to reach the end zone for a month long span this year. This ‘D’ has forced 23 turnovers in seven games. Cinci’s stop unit has already stepped up in class against the likes of South Florida, Tennessee (early in the year when the Vols were still healthy), NC State and Louisville. And Butch Jones’ team actually has a better overall defense than the stats will show, thanks to a bunch of garbage yards and points allowed in the latter stages of blowout wins against the likes of Austin Peay, Akron and NC State.
Cinci is every bit as talented on the offensive side of the football. QB Zack Collaros led the team on a game winning touchdown drive on the road at South Florida in the closing seconds of their last game; yet another confidence inducing moment from this dual threat senior. Another senior, running back Isaiah Pead, has breakaway speed and an NFL upside. The Bearcats have spent the season scoring touchdowns, not settling for field goals.
Pitt’s been beaten at the line of scrimmage more than once this year. QB Tino Sunseri’s play has been spotty at best, even though he was solid in last weeks’ win over UConn. The Panthers just lost their best offensive player to injury, RB Ray Graham. They’ve lost four of their last six overall, but both wins during that span came on weeknight national TV games, giving the betting markets some false perceptions about the Panthers ability to step up in class here. Take Cinci
Craig Trapp
Arizona State vs. UCLA
Play: Arizona State -8½
UCLA had great win last week against average CAL team but this week they are not facing average team. Arizona State is very good on both offense and defense and they will show off on Saturday. Coach Erickson defense will absolutely unload after the offense gives them big early lead. 4 star play
Brad Diamond Sports
Georgia over New Mexico State
When NMS visits Athens on Saturday they show at 3-5 SU and 6-2 ATS, earning some real money for their backers. New Mexico State ranks #45 in the nation on offense at 6.17 yards per play. Total defense is another story where the Aggies are horrid rated #107 at 5.98 yards per play, allowing 443 yards per game. On the positive side, they have generated 24 or more points in 7 of their 8 games this season. But, it's a mirage as they have defeated Minnesota (2-6), New Mexico (0-8) and Idaho (1-7) thus far. To say the Aggies are moving up in class Saturday is an understatement. Georgia is coming off three straight road games and has Auburn at home up next. Sure, there is a letdown possibility, but the Dawgs are still striking to win the SEC and want final national honors. Recall, Georgia is holding opponents to 267 yards per game, ranking #7 nationally. Technically, Georgia is 4-0 ATS against a losing club, 5-1 ATS as chalk higher than 10 and 5 of 6 ATS of late. New Mexico State is 5-11 ATS on the road versus a winning home team. Going back in history NMS has not done well against the SEC showing a 2-6 ATS marker going into Saturday. Further, the Aggies are 8-20 ATS after giving up 40 points in their last game and 1-6 ATS after Nevada. Finally, New Mexico State is 0-6 ATS before Fresno State.
SPORTS WAGERS
ALABAMA –4½ over LSU
LSU is an outstanding, well-coached team with a top-flight defense and a powerful running game. Unfortunately for the Tigers, this game doesn't really have much to do with them. Alabama is a championship team on a championship mission, and LSU is simply in the way. Alabama's defense is absolutely not "one of" the best in the country. It is not simply the nation's best in 2011, but rather a once-in-a-generation defense. That's not hyperbole. It's also what we should expect given the Crimson Tide's perfect set of circumstances. The sport's top defensive coaching staff in terms of both scheme and technique is, in its fifth year, at the very pinnacle of its recruiting and player development machine. The Alabama defense was a top-five unit last season with a lineup full of newbies. This year, with experienced, fully developed and uber-talented upperclassmen manning nearly every spot on the two-deep, the Tide stop unit is setting a new standard. When elite coaching combines with elite talent and maximum experience at an elite program with unlimited resources … well, that's exactly how once-in-a-generation defenses are made. Add in the nation's best offensive line and backfield duo, and you have a championship-caliber team. The home-field advantage will also be unprecedented, as this will be the loudest and most intimidating crowd in Bryant-Denny Stadium history. LSU's defense is fantastic, but its reckless style relies on rattling the opposing offense, then feeding on the resulting turnovers and miscues -- mistakes that an experienced, disciplined and prepared Alabama team simply will not make at home. The Tide roll in this one and leave nothing in doubt. Play: #360 Alabama –4½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
WASHINGTON +16½ over Oregon
Oregon is laying big weight on the road thanks to a porous Washington run defense that just allowed an incredible 446 rushing yards to Stanford. While the Huskies' “D” will indeed be a liability again against the potent Ducks, this big pooch may be able to trade blows with the favorite. The Oregon defense is vulnerable to physical play, and Washington can line up and pound the ball with big tailback Chris Polk. The Huskies have won five straight at home to move coach Steve Sarkisian to 12-4 in Seattle, and this week is a special occasion, as the 1991 championship team will be honored in the final game in Husky Stadium before a $250 million renovation. Severe weather could limit the explosiveness of an Oregon offense that has been a little out of sync due to injuries to its key performers, and the Dawgs may be able to trade punches well enough to stay in this one a lot longer than they have the past few years. You’re always going to pay a premium to wager on highly ranked, high scoring teams and even more so now with ranked teams covering a high percentage this season and thus, the books have inflated the numbers more. Play: #362 Washington +16½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Northwestern +18 over NEBRASKA
This is such a good fade against an overrated Nebraska team that is 0-4 as a double-digit home favorite this year and is getting far too much credit for beating Michigan State in what was an awful spot for the Spartans. Spardy had just come off back-to-back wins over Michigan and Wisconsin and it was no surprise to see them lay an egg against the Huskers. Northwestern is more vulnerable to good passing attacks than rushing teams, and the Cats have enough firepower to get on the board a few times. The Wildcats have had some outstanding first halves against some pretty tough teams this season before melting down in second half and they’re not taking a step up in class here. Not only are the Cornhuskers beatable and overrated, they’re in a bad spot after that win against MSU. Play: Northwestern +17½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
New Mexico St +34½ over GEORGIA
Georgia is a solid outfit that could back into an SEC East title, but the Dawgs are down to their fifth-string tailback and have no business laying five scores in the week between the Florida and Auburn showdowns. Football is all about focus and intensity and the Bulldogs are likely to show up in body only here. Even if they run up the score, chances are they’ll ease up in the seond half in preparation for next week’s showdown. New Mexico State is not in Georgia's class by any stretch, but the Aggies are not the same punchless offense that took the field in 2009 and 2010. One trip to the end zone might be plenty for a game in which Georgia may have trouble even scoring the number. Play: #321 New Mexico St +34½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +103 over TORONTO
The Maple Leafs are atop the NHL standings and as a result, their stock is a little too high right now. Give the Leafs credit for their 9-3-1 record and while they are an improved team, they’re surely not a 70%+ win percentage team. The Leafs last two wins against New Jersey and Columbus were the result of horrible goaltending by the opposition. Marty Brodeur allowed four goals in the first 11 shots he faced and the next night, Steve Mason was yanked early, as the Leafs scored four more goals in a game they were clearly dominated in. The Jackets outshout Toronto 41-18. Additionally, the Leafs have played seven of their past eight on the road and this is the ninth straight game in which they’ve had to travel. They played four on the road before returning home for one game against Pittsburgh and subsequently hit the road again for three more. Toronto will return home once again and fatigue is certainly an issue. The Bruins are a lot more desperate than the Maple Leafs. Boston has just one win in its last four and two wins in its last six. The B’s are well rested and they should be completely jacked up and ready to go on a Saturday night in Toronto. Hockey Night in Canada is to the NHL what Monday Night Football is to the NFL and thus, every team and player looks forward to it. A well-prepped B’s team against a tired and overvalued Leafs club gets the call. Play: Boston +103 (Risking 2 units).
Washington/N.Y. ISLANDERS over 5½ +107
The Caps offense is in high gear having scored five goals or more in two straight and in four of their past six games. They also scored four goals once during that span and it came against some tough opposition. How’s this for offense: five on Cam Ward last night, seven on the Canucks, five on Philly, five on Anaheim and seven on Detroit. Now the Caps will face the Islanders and their goaltending issues. Rick DiPietro is playing because the Islanders have to pay his ridiculously high salary. If he were making an average salary he would be the team’s third string goaltender. He hasn’t been under a barrage of shots yet so his atrocious style, slowness and lack of talent hasn’t been exposed yet. Dpietro has played in 40 games over the past three seasons and he was awful before he was injured. He virtually has no chance of success if the Caps aren’t flat and nothing suggests they will be. The Islanders are not scoring goals and that’s why we get to take back some juice on the over. However, that offense will wake up at some point because there is too much scoring talent for them not to. Caps could go over this number on their own. Play: Washington/Islanders over 5½ +107 (Risking 2 units).
Winnipeg +154 over NEW JERSEY
Regardless of the outcome here, the Jets are simply a must play against a Devils team that does not warrant this tag and you can times that by 10 with the confirmed starter, Martin Brodeur in net. Brodeur is old, slow and out of position way too often. He has a ton of mileage and he’s just not good anymore. We keep emphasizing how goaltending is huge these days and if you can predict which goalie is going to play better you’re going to cash most of your bets. Ondrej Pavelec was brilliant last time out against the Islanders. He was the reason the Jets won that game and a hot goaltender can carry a team for a long time. You can expect the Jets to be sharper tonight, as they’ve won three of their past four and confidence is building. The Devils have played five of past six on the road and returning home to play in front of a half empty arena is not going to be inspiring. Biggest overlay on the board. Play: Winnipeg +154 (Risking 2 units).
Dennis Macklin
Utah vs. Arizona U
Play: Arizona -3½
The public got a litlle too high on the Wildcats in their last after Zona’s blowout win over UCLA fogetting that UA was 1-9 in their prior 10 with the win coming over Northern Arizona. Holes threw three key picks in the loss at UDub but the Cats have put together two pretty good performances since the firing of Mike Stoops. Utes off best game since BYU getting first Pac Ten win over Oregon State. Utah was near perfect in turning the Beavers over four times while only offensive weapon White rushed for 205 yards. The Cats are home and stack the box against no-pass at all Utah offense. Arizona really has no excuse to not win this bu double-digits. Take Arizona.
Kyle Hunter
LSU vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -4½
It's being billed as "The Game of the Century." I'm not sure about that label, but it should definitely be a great game. Nick Saban is a terrific coach, and I really like the fact that he has had two weeks to prepare the Crimson Tide. A.J. McCarron is completing 67% of his passes, and he has been much better than most expected. Trent Richardson is an absolute beast in the backfield, and I think he could easily win the Heisman this year. The biggest key of all is the Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide defense looks like an NFL defense, and they are easily first in the nation in total defense. LSU is great defensively too, but they don't have the same offensive firepower. I'll take the Crimson Tide here.
Steve Merril
Missouri vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor -2½
This looks like the ultimate flat spot for Missouri. The Tigers come in off their big come from behind win in overtime at Texas A&M. Missouri was a 10½-point underdog in that game, and with a 28-17 deficit at the half, the Tigers looked well on their way to a blowout loss. But as we’ve seen all season, Texas A&M cannot hold big halftime leads and they allowed Missouri to storm back and steal a big road win in College Station. But the Tigers will be hard-pressed to have much left in the tank for this game, especially with the fast pace play of Baylor’s offense.
Baylor’s offense plays at breakneck speed. The Bears are averaging 41 points and 559 yards of total offense per game. They are averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play which is an outstanding number. Missouri’s pass defense is ranked 93rd in the nation and Baylor quarterback Robert Griffith III should pick up his third consecutive 400-yard passing game against the Tigers. Baylor has also been able to run the ball this season; they are averaging 206 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush. They will use the running game to set up the pass where they definitely hold a big advantage, especially on the edges of the Missouri defense.
Missouri hasn’t won back-to-back games all season, and we do expect them to do it here. Baylor’s three losses this season have come against Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. Those three teams have a combined record of 20-4 so far this season. Baylor is taking a step down in class here as Missouri is just 4-4 on the season with three of their four wins coming against Miami (OH), Western Illinois, and Iowa State. This is a terrific spot for Baylor to get back on track after a pair of blowout losses. The Bears are on a 10-4 ATS run as a home favorite, so we’ll lay the cheap price with them in this game.
Rocketman
South Carolina @ Arkansas
Play On: Arkansas -5
South Carolina is my favorite team in College Football and was my sleeper pick to win it all this year. Since then, the Gamecocks have lost QB Stephen Garcia and lost their great RB Marcus Lattimore. The Gamecocks still have done great this year with only one loss but their offense is now struggling. Arkansas is also 7-1 on the season and are 12-4 ATS last 3 years at home. Arkansas is 8-0 ATS in November the past 3 years. Arkansas has a very strong home field going 4-0 SU this year where they have scored an average of 44.7 points per game and have allowed only 13 points per game at home on the season. Arkansas is 7-2 SU and ATS at home vs South Carolina since 1992. Sadly, we'll recommend a small play on Arkansas tonight!
Michael Alexander
Michigan vs. Iowa
Play: Michigan -3½
MICHIGAN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
IOWA is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games
The Road team (MICHIGAN) is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
David Chan
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Los Angeles Kings
PICK: Los Angeles Kings
The 8-3-3 Pittsburgh Penguins fly into LA to take on the 6-4-2 Kings.
Marc-Andre Fleury will be opposed by Jonathan Quick between the pipes.
The Kings are coming off a 3-0 loss to the Oilers on Thursday:
“It would be one thing if we had glorious opportunity after glorious opportunity,” defenseman Jack Johnson said recently, “but that’s the trouble because it doesn’t seem like that’s really the case.
“For whatever reason, we need to try to find a way to be a little more creative, whether it’s kind of - I don’t want to say `taking chances,’ but we have to do something to try to create some offense and score some goals for Quickie.”
The Pens have had no issues in scoring, but have been lack defensively; they gave up two in the third period and lost 4-3 at Toronto last Saturday, and then blew a 3-1 lead with 10-minutes to play and lost 4-3 in a shootout to the Sharks on Thursday.
To make matters worse, defenseman Ben Lovejoy broke his wrist in that game.
Jordan Staal will also be out tonight due to a lower-body injury.
Quick is 3-1-0 with a 1.23 GAA and two shutouts at home where LA has killed off all but one of 17 short-handed situations.
In my humble opinion, this is the very definition of "good line value"; I'm laying the juice!
Sam Martin
South Florida at Rutgers
Prediction: South Florida
Great spot to back South Florida here, and we're getting excellent line value as the Bulls are coming off three straight losses. But USF matches up very well with Rutgers here and we look for the Bulls to win this game comfortably. USF is first and foremost a rushing team on offense, and they'll face a Rutgers defense that has allowed 210 and 187 rushing yards in their last two games - both losses. On the other side of the ball we look for the Scarlet Knights to continue their turnover problem, as they have turned the ball over 10 times in the last three games and face a very good USF defense that stops the run and forces opponents to beat them through the air. No confidence in Rutgers passing attack, and we look for South Florida to pull away to an easy win in the second half! 5* Play on South Florida.
Real Time Animal
3* Rutgers +2.5
A comedy of errors allowed Rutgers to virtually give the game away versus West Virginia last week. The Scarlet Knights led 31-21 at half but then were outscored 20-0 in the 2nd half. The game was played in snow, Rutgers lost turnover 4-1, and botched a fake field goal attempt that was critical at the time because it could have given Rutgers a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter. But that West Virginia team is very talented, especially on offense. South Florida has lost four straight spots and yet somehow are a road favorite despite. Plus this game is Saturday night in Piscataway meaning you have a warm-weather team playing in chilly conditions. I like the fact Rutgers is #2 in takeaways with a defensive line that has collected 25 sacks. Good pressure on Daniels could force mistakes. USF has four turnovers in each of their last two games. The Bulls were favored over Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and not only lost outright but allowed over 500 total yards. Plus scoring 10 points at Connecticut is pathetic considering the Huskies allowed 35 at Pittsburgh, 43 at West Virginia, and 38 at home to Western Michigan. USF missing top WR target Sterling Griffin (40 catches). 3* Rutgers plus the points.
NHL Predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs +100
The Toronto Maple Leafs come into tonight’s game a top the Eastern Conference standings with a 9-3-1 record, while the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins are in last place in the East with a 4-7 record. The Leafs have been without their number 1 goalie, James Riemer, but have managed to win 4 of their last 5 games. The Maple Leafs have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road, but are coming off a short 3 game road trip after a home win against Pittsburgh last Saturday. The Leafs are 5-0-1 at home this season. Boston got a win Tuesday at home against the Senators after losing three straight and 6 of 8. One of Boston’s wins came against the Maple Leafs back on October 20th, where the Bruins dominated most of the game. Jonas Gustavsson was in net for that game and he let in 6 goals on 43 shots. Since that start Gustavsson has done pretty well winning 3 of the next 5 games he played in, before giving way to Ben Scrivens on Thursday night. Scrivens stopped 38 of 39 shots for his first NHL victory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Scrivens back between the pipes tonight, but the Leafs have yet to announce who will be starting. Bruins netminder Tuukka Rask has had success against the Maple Leafs, but the Bruins haven’t named their starter yet either. Rask is winless (0-3) on the season with a 2.71 GAA and .906 SV%. Tim Thomas is 4-4 with a 2.25 GAA and .924 SV%. Again this year the Maple Leafs are struggling killing penalties, but the good news for them is that Boston is only converting 13% of their powerplays (26th in the league) and they have yet to score a powerplay goal on the road. Toronto’s powerplay has been solid at home converting for a goal 22.2% of the time this season. Take note that Toronto won 4 of these two teams 6 meetings last season, including 2 of the 3 they hosted in Toronto. The Leafs are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog, and 9-3 in their last 12 games vs divisional opponents dating back to last season. The Bruins are just 2-5 in their last 7 games as an underdog and 2-7 in their last 9 road games. The home team has won 9 of these two teams last 13 meetings. The Maple Leafs have been the better team this year, and getting them as a home underdog is very generous. I’m on the Leafs.
Washington Capitals - 125
The Capitals will be on a back-to-back tonight as they are coming off a 5-1 victory in Carolina making them 9-2 on the season. Note that the Caps are 5-2 in their last 7 on 0 days of rest. The Islanders have had a day off to try and regroup as they dropped their 6th straight game on Thursday at home against the Jets. New York is just 2-7 in their last 9 games on 1 days rest. Not much is going well for the Islanders who are 3-5-2 on the season. They are averaging just 1.8 goals per game, compared to the Capitals who are averaging 4 goals per game. Over their 6 game losing streak the Islanders have scored just 7 goals. Tomas Vokoun looks to get the start for Washington tonight after a night off. Vokoun is 7-1 on the season with a 2.36 GAA and .920 SV%. Rick DiPietro is the confirmed starter for the Islanders, and he is 0-1-1 with a 2.50 GAA and .909 SV% this season. The Capitals took all four of these two teams meetings last season, and have won 6 straight overall. The Capitals are also 38-13-3 in their last 54 meetings overall, and 19-7-1 in their last 27 meetings in New York. The Caps are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 39-18 in their last 57 vs Atlantic division opponents. the Caps are 60-28 in their last 88 vs a team with a losing record. Note that the Islanders are 18-45 in their last 63 games following a loss of 3 goals or more, 1-6 in their last 7 Saturday games, and 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Struggling as much as they are, it will be tough for the Islanders to pull off the upset tonight against the Capitals. Washington continues to roll tonight and I will take them laying just a bit of chalk on the road.
OC Dooley
Utah State +3.5
This has the making of a “letdown” game for Hawaii as they look forward to next week’s trip to Nevada which will be a battle for the top spot in the Western Athletic Conference. With this particular line being near pick-em parameters one also has to be concerned with Hawaii’s placekicking as in the initial seven outings they made just 3 of 7 field goal attempts (and just 28 of 34 extra point opportunities). While on the subject of special teams it was one year ago when Utah State’s Kerwynn Williams led the entire nation with five kickoff returns that went for 60 yards or longer. In the past two months Utah State has talked like they had a chance to reach a postseason Bowl game and by pure statistics they should be in good shape. The hard luck Aggies (2-5) could very easily be 5-2 but the five setbacks have come by a grand total of just 25 points in part due to vital mistakes made in the final quarter. In the last pair of contests on the field Utah State also has been flagged for 18 penalties which cost them a grand total of 188 yards. As mentioned this team statistically has been solid this year winning the “numbers” game by an average of 123 net-yards per contest which is no fluke when you consider last time on the field the Aggies held Louisiana Tech to a SEASON-LOW 232 yards in what somehow results in a seven-point home defeat. Utah State has had plenty of times to lick their wounds courtesy of a “bye” week that saw a meeting called last Sunday where the coaching staff sent a message to remain positive and do your jobs. From what I have been able to find out the practice sessions for Utah State leading up to this game have been both intense and done with a purpose. Most reading this analysis are most likely aware that Hawaii continues to be an offensive machine especially at home where they are putting up a whopping 45 points per game with the help of senior star quarterback Bryant Moniz. But Utah State counters with signal caller Chuckie Keeton who is second in the WAC Conference (#40 nationally) in pass efficiency. The Aggies offense is averaging near 36 points per outing while gaining a hefty average of 278 “ground” yards. The last time Utah State made the long trip to Hawaii they were actually favored by the oddsmakers and ended up losing on the scoreboard. But this time around they are getting points so it is worth noting that long term Utah State has COVERED the spread at a 10-2 clip when cast as a road underdog. Late tonight on the island it is a “must win” for Utah State who with any luck should have already been Bowl eligible