Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 6,2010

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY--- Tennessee -20 over MEMPHIS: The Tigers are in a freefall right now as they come in having lost their last 4 games by 40 ppg, and that's vs 3 Conf USA oppenets and a 56-0 drubbing at the hands of Louisville. Now they must take on an SEC team that is hungry for a win, after facing LSU, Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina in the last 4 weeks. Tennessee has also taken the last 5 in the series by 26 ppg and they are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games as 20+ point favs. Tennessee will be more than happy to take out thier frusterations on a Memphis squad that is 117th in scoring (14.3 ppg) and 118th in points allowed (41.5 ppg). Tennessee may be just 2-6, but they do have 4 winable games remaining and could still go bowling, while Memphis has long since thrown in the to0wel. Tennessee by 28+ here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Vols are 26-9 ATS on the road in weeks 5-9, including a 2-1 ATS mark this year.

4 UNIT PLAYS

Boston College -3 over WAKE FOREST: Let's look at common oppenents for a moment. BC and Wake have both played Va Tech, Maryland and FSU and while both teams are 0-3 in those games, BC has been outsored by just 9 ppg, while the Deacons have been pounded by 36.7 ppg in those 3 games. Wake offense revolves around the run, but will be taking on BC's 3rd ranked rush defense, which will force the Deacons out of their game. Overall Wake does have a slight offensive edge (92nd to 112th). On the defensive side is where BC has a HUGE edge as they come in ranked 16th in total defense (307.6 ypg) and 53rd in scoring (23.1 ppg) while Wake is 117th in both categories (453.4 ypg & 40.8 ppg). The Deacons will have to throw more here and that is not their game, while the BC offense should "WAKE" up vs a defense that has allowed 114 popints in their last 2 games. BC rolls here.

6 Point Teaser--- Oregon -29.5, Hawaii +27 & Rutgers/ South Florida Under 48 No

Hawaii +21 over BOISE STATE: Boy the Rainbows have been on quite a roll since their 31-13 loss to Colorado, as they have gone 6-0 and are outscoring opponents by 30 ppg in the process. For the the year UH is averaging 39.2 ppg, but over that 6 game stretch they have put up 45.5 ppg. The offense is strong indeed, but wait, this team has now learned to play defense. Through their 1st 3 games they allowed 36 ppg, but during their curent 6 game win streak they have allowed just 15.5 ppg. Last year the Rainbows were 91st in total defense, but have made a big jump up to 39th this year. Boise is certainly a strong team, especially at home, but they are not a run it up team and Hawaii is just playing too well on both sides of the ball to all this one to be a blowout. Boise by no more than 10.

3 UNIT PLAY

LA TECH -1.5 over Freson State: Tech played very well last week, as they hung with Boise before the Broncos pulled away late. The Bulldogs did cover. Fresno is off games vs New Mexico State and San Jose State and they didn't play well at all in those games, failing to cover both. La Tech has covered 9 of their last 10 home games overall and they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 in this series, while Fresno is on an 0-5 ATS streak this year. La Tech has played better since settling on a QB and with their strong home field edge I look for them to pick up a solid victory here.

Tony George

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
Play:Baylor +9

This game might be a shootout here, but both teams capable of winning and winning big. I go back to the Nebraska Game for Okie State and how NUs QB Taylor Martinez bought time and ran around and ran it right at Okie State and racked up 51 points with an offense that really is not that explosive. The Bears have QB Griffen healhty and he is a huge playmaker with a better arm and WRs than Martinez had, and Okies defense is very very suspect.

Griffen is a 70-percent passer with only 4 TDs and can flat out gain 80 yards plus in this game on the ground. While Okie State can trade punches on offense, Baylor is 6-2 ATS their last 8 games against a team with a winning record and already knocked off Texas in Austin. Art Bryles is a hell of a coach and should have these Bears coached up and ready for this game, Baylor leads the South division and will not go quietly into the night here. Grab the Points and Baylor in a thriller

Ultimate Sport Picks

Hawaii vs. Boise State
Play: Boise State -21

We see a small edge in this match up towards Boise St. Hawaii comes into this game very hot, they have been able to throw the ball all over the field. Quarterback Byrant Moniz has been great this year, and the five wide, spread, pass-happy offense Hawaii runs has been close to unstoppable. But, they have not faced a team as good as Boise St, or had to play in a stadium that is this tough to play in. Boise St will be able to put some defensive schemes together in this game that should be able to get into Moniz's head, and force him into making some bad decisions. On offense, we know Boise St. will be able to score with ease. The big factor in this game will be turnovers, in order for Boise St to win by more than three touchdowns, they must win the turnover battle. With the mix of a solid defense, the blue turf, and a very highly motivated Boise St, who needs a blow out win in this game to keep there title hopes alive. They should be able to force the turnovers needed.

Bryan Leonard

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Play: Kansas Jayhawks +9

The Buffaloes are 3-5 on the season and have been beaten in their three road games by a combined margin of 121-17. They have lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series with the lone victory coming by 4 points last year. Against FBS qualifying conference competition Colorado has been beaten by a combined score of 206-95 this season.

The underdog in this series has cashed 6 of the last 7 meetings and Kansas has a bit of revenge for losing last year while they were a Top 20 ranked club. Sure Turner Gill is having a tough season in his first year in Lawrence, but what have the Buffaloes done to deserve being a road favorite of this magnitude? Kansas has Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Missouri to finish the season. Therefore this is in reality their final chance for a victory. Off a spread covering performance last week at Iowa State we expect the Jayhawks to play with a purpose here. It's now basketball season which means the football team is an afterthought in Kansas. That gives extra incentive to the gridiron maulers. The last five seasons Kansas finished the last five games of the season with a 16-9 spread mark. Look for the pride in these football players to come out this week as they prove to their fellow students that football still has relevance in Lawrence.

Tom Stryker

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers
Play: Alabama Crimson Tide -6½

Alabama and LSU bring identical 7-1 SU records into this huge SEC battle on Saturday afternoon and the winner will take charge of the West Division. The Crimson Tide knows they control their own destiny in the conference and the BCS and they’ll look to close with a rush.

There are some teams that just can’t win in Baton Rouge. Alabama isn’t one of them. Dating back to the 1980 season, the Crimson Tide are a tremendous 11-3-1 SU and 11-4 ATS inside Tiger Stadium including a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in this role running with rest. Overall, the Tide are a rewarding 72-34-1 SU and 64-42-1 ATS as an SEC guest including a sensational 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in this role coming off a bye week.

LSU enters this contest off a seven point loss at Auburn and some time off as well. The Tigers may only have one loss this season but they could have easily dropped decisions to West Virginia, Tennessee and Florida. “Lady Luck” has certainly been on the Bayou Bengals side. There’s a good chance she won’t be present here.

At home in conference play, LSU has been a poor investment posting a soft 39-69-5 ATS record. In this role sporting a won/loss percentage greater than .750, the Tigers have lost their growl notching a stiff 11-30-4 ATS mark. As an SEC host tackling an elite opponent that holds a won/loss percentage greater than .870, the Bayou Bengals are a dismal 8-18 SU and 7-17-2 ATS in their last 26 tries.

Offensively, ‘Bama is getting the job done on the ground (avg 186.9 ypg) and through the air (avg 253.9 ypg) and they’re going to give this Tigers defense fits. The same thing can’t be said for LSU’s offense. The Bayou Bengals are decent overland (avg 179.1 ypg) but they can’t throw the football to save their life. One thing you don’t want to be against a Nick Saban defense is one-dimensional. The Crimson Tide knows how to win big games and they’ll dominate this phony LSU bunch. Take Alabama.

Freddy Wills

Temple Owls vs. Kent State Golden Flashes
Play: Temple Owls -3

Before I get to the breakdown we are now 7-2 on these free pick articles since we started 9 weeks ago! Along with that 7-2 record in free picks we have 8 of 9 winning weekends in football this season with a huge profit of +58.46 units on sports picks this year. This weekend we have another 4 Day Weekend Package deal that comes with a special 7 day guarantee! We are on a 23-13 ats run in NCAAF and you won't want to miss out on Saturdays winning card of 4 picks!

Take Temple -3 (2.2 Dime Free Play)Everyone is talking about this match up in the MAC as it is strength vs. strength. The MAC's #1 run defense in Kent State led by future pro and possible freshmen All American Roosevelt Nix and the MAC's #1 rushing offense led by a two headed monster in Bernard Pierce 80.6 yards per game and Matt Brown 75.8 yards per game.

What people do not realize is this is the first time Kent State is going to face an opponent that can really beat up on them since Penn State. The average offensive rushing attack that they have gone up against is ranked on average 92nd in the country. That's pretty bad and Temple is ranked 41st, but are better than their ranks as they have faced some good run defense including Uconn, Penn State, Army, and Northern Illinois. Kent State's head coach even said, "They will out man us quite a bit size-wise...on both sides of the ball." Temple has the MAC's most highly regarded offensive lines led by veterans Colin Madison at right guard and Darius Morris at right tackle. With a healthy Pierce it looks like not even Kent State can stand in their way.

However, that is not why I like Temple so much. Another reason and probably the biggest is the play of QB Mike Gerardi. Since taking over at QB the time of possession is on the side of Temple, making that defense that much better (we'll get to the defense in a minute) and the offense more balanced. He has thrown 33 of 52 for 502 yards 6 TD's and 2 INT against some decent pass defenses in Bowling Green #69 and Buffalo #29. Kent State is ranked 61st and will be his most challenging task yet. Kent State who is leading the MAC in sacks 2.88 a game will ahve to get after Gerardi in 3rd and long situations. Gerardi has been sacked just one time in his 3 games as the starter.

Temple defense is another reason they are more dominant than Kent State and they are facing a team that has not done much on offense except pass. Kent State's 106th ranked offense is in serious trouble as TEmple just shut out two offenses in a row and the one from Buffalo looks identical in rankings.

Kent State will try have their QB Spencer Keith who is coming off two straight weeks with no interceptions lead them to victory, but he has faced a very week schedule and now it heats up big time with the 27th pass defense and 27th overall total defense in the country. Temple is flooded with talent on this side of the ball including two pro level players in Muhammad Wilkerson 55 tackles and 7 sacks, and safety Jaiquawn Jarett who leads the team with 64 tackles. At the end of the day it's strength of schedule. Kent State has looked good and the team defense looks like it can give Temple some issues, but Temple has the better offense and defense. Kent State is at home but they just have too much to make up and this is too big of a game for Temple to not take seriously

Chip Chirimbes

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers
Play: LSU Tigers +6½

This is meeting of two top ranked 7-1 SEC teams (this don't happen to Bosie State) as No. 5 Alabama invades Baton Rouge to play No.11 Louisiana State. The Tide have the advantage at quarterback where Greg McElroy (37-1 since his prep days) has completed 71% of his passes while LSU ranks dead last in SEC passing. The Tigers gain the home advantage and an edge on defense where they are a plus 18 in turnovers. Take the points with LSU!

Jim Feist

Oregon State vs. UCLA
Play: Under 55

Battle of the running teams! And running the football moves the clock and can keep the score down. Oregon State (4-3 SU/6-1 ATS) offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf likes balance and this offense has a start with RB Jacquizz Rodgers Oregon State defeated California 35-7 on Saturday, playing tough defense in a game that went under the total. They take on a UCLA (3-5) team that has a decent defense, but no passing offense behind sophomore QB Kevin Prince (3 TDs, 5 INTs) and sophomore QB Richard Brehaut (2 TDs, 3 INTs). They have scored 41 points the last 3 games. The one-dimensional offense is becoming a problem, as teams are now focused on stopping the run. UCLA is on a 12-7-1 run under the total. Play Oregon State/UCLA Under the total.

Steve Janus

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Play: Iowa Hawkeyes -17½

The Hawkeyes are simply to talented on both the offensive and defensive side of the football for the Hoosiers to keep this one close. Indiana has already lost two conference games by 28 points or more this season, while the Hawkeyes have dominated lessor opponents. Iowa is 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons, while the Hoosiers are just 4-14 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992.

Teddy Covers

Alabama @ LSU
PICK: LSU +6.5

All three of Nick Saban’s meetings as the Alabama head coach against the squad that he coached to a national championship following the 2003 season have been tight, competitive affairs. LSU won by a touchdown in Tuscaloosa back in 2007. In ’08, on their way to a national title of their own, Alabama needed overtime to knock off LSU, 27-21. Last year, the Tigers led by two on the road in the fourth quarter before Julio Jones took a short pass and scampered 73 yards down the sideline for the game winning touchdown.

The stats show Alabama with a solid offensive edge. ‘True’ numbers show the Crimson Tide as the superior rushing team (6.2 yards per rush compared to 5.0 for LSU) and the vastly superior passing team (8.0 yards per attempt for the Tide; 5.1 yards per attempt for the Tigers). But LSU has a slight edge on the defensive side of the football, against an equally tough slate, making the Tigers a classic ‘defensive minded home dog’ on Saturday. Les Miles’ teams have performed admirably as a short underdog of a TD or less, including an impressive SU win in Gainesville against the Florida Gators earlier this season.

Alabama has a star senior quarterback who won a national title last year and an extraordinary amount of NFL caliber skill position talent around him. But the Crimson Tide have not fared well stepping up in class on the highway. They needed a furious second half rally to beat Arkansas, unable to cover as 6.5 point road chalk – the exact same pointspread that we see on this game. Alabama lost outright at South Carolina as seven point favorites. Don’t be shocked to see ‘Bama win this game in SU fashion, but without notching the necessary margin to cover this inflated pointspread. 2* Take LSU.

Scott Spreitzer

Arizona @ Stanford
PICK: Over 56

Many coaches have stated how physical Stanford is in the trenches after facing the Cardinal. While that may hold true for the offensive line, the defense has hardly been physical - or effective, for that matter, expect for last week's contest against fading Washington.

The offense, meanwhile, has been in high gear since week one. Stanford's low output this season has been 31 points in a loss to Oregon. They have reached at least 35 points in each of their other seven games. But before playing Washington, the Cardinal had allowed 52, 35, and 28 points in their previous three games.

Arizona and Stanford combined to score 81 points in last year's contest, a 43-38 shootout won by the Cardinal. The only real question in this one is who is going to take the reigns at QB for the Wildcats. Nick Foles says he'll be ready to go (knee), while Matt Scott, who's proven to be more than capable, did suffer a hand injury. Whichever signal caller steps under center should have little trouble moving the offense and putting points on the board.

Stanford has played to the Over in 10 of their last 13 games overall, including 7 straight Overs at home. I'm playing Arizona and Stanford to go Over the total on Saturday night.

Hollywood Sports

SMU at UTEP
Play: UTEP

The Miners (5-4) have covered 5 straight games as a home dog in the 3.5-10 point range. UTEP has lost three games in a row but two of these games were on the road. Back at home, they are scoring 31.4 PPG with almost 400 total YPG while outscoring their opponents by +13.2 PPG. UTEP's biggest weakness has been their run defense that allows 169.6 rushing YPG. But SMU is a pass-first team get also twice as much (280.3 YPG) through the air rather than on the ground (147.4 YPG). The Mustangs (5-4) come off a 31-17 win over Tulane but have struggled themselves as of late having lost two straight games before that victory. UTEP possesses a strong pass defense that holds their opponents to 189.6 YPG which will help keep UTEP in the game. SMU may eek out a win but it should very close. Take UTEP with the points.

Matt Fargo

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma State -8.5

We were on Baylor in this spot last week and the Bears went into Texas and defeated the Longhorns outright. Part of the reasoning was that even though the Bears had gotten into the top 25 and were already bowl eligible, they still had goal to attain. This week, while some goals are still on the table, finds them in a very tough spot against a team that is striving for the same goals. If the Bears win their remaining three games, they’ll win the Big XII South for the first time ever. Pressure? The Cowboys come in a half-game behind the Bears and a win here vaults them into first place and in the ideal scenario of controlling their own destiny the rest of the way. After their undefeated season was ruined by Nebraska two weeks ago, Oklahoma St. came back last week and won on the road at Kansas St. That was impressive stuff as it showed the Cowboys let that loss go and they are playing one game at a time. This is the first game at home since that Huskers loss which makes this one extra special. The Longhorns reached the Baylor 4, 9, 14, 23 and 32 on separate occasions, yet only came away with five field goals against Baylor. The Bears defense is good but it is still ranked 78th overall and that was more of a case of the Texas offense stumbling in the worst moments. The Cowboys have an offense that can take advantage of the 63rd ranked rushing defense and 87th ranked passing defense. Oklahoma St. is ranked second in the nation in total offense and third in scoring offense. The Oklahoma St. offense managed just two touchdowns and a field goal, though quarterback Brandon Weeden was sharp and the running game was again effective. The good news this week is that leading receiver Justin Blackmon, who missed last week because of a suspension, is back for this game. On the other side, Baylor can match the Cowboys production but playing its second straight game on the road is tough. A strong offense for the home team is difficult to keep up with. While Baylor won in Austin last week for the first time since 1991, it has been since 1939 that the Bears have won in Stillwater. Oklahoma St. is 8-0 in this series at home and while teams change as well as Baylor much better than ever, it is extremely tough for the Bears to keep this momentum going. The action is split on this game and there has been little line movement which is actually a good thing. A team from the top 25 getting more than a touchdown is always enticing to the public and that is where the action will be. Oklahoma St. also falls into a great situation based on the scoring offenses of both teams. Play against conference road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams whose offenses average 34 or more ppg. This situation is 27-3 ATS (90 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being +17.8 ppg. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points while the Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of the same parameters. 3* Oklahoma St. Cowboys

LARRY NESS

Texas @ Kansas St.
PICK: Texas -3.5

I played on the Longhorns last Saturday in the team's 30-22 loss to Baylor. That loss ended a 12-game winning streak by Texas over Baylor and incredibly, was the Longhorns' third consecutive home loss. That almost seems impossible. Texas entered the 2010 season with a streak of nine straight 10-win seasons (or more) and in Austin, had posted a 56-4 SU mark for the entire last decade (2000-09). Getting out of Austin, may be "just what the doctor ordered" for Mack Brown's club. At first blush, one must wonder why the Longhorns are even favored but a closer look at Kansas St reveals that the Longhorns are still a better team than the Wildcats. KSU opened 4-0 but then got 'WAXED' at home 48-13 by Nebraska, a team the Longhorns beat 20-13 in Lincoln. The loss to Nebraska has sent KSU on a 1-3 slide and with a trip to Missouri up next, the Wildcats had better win here, or it's likely the team will be 5-5 before finishing up at Colorado and North Texas. In KSU's last two Big 12 home games, the Wildcats have been outgained by 272 yards by Nebraska and by 222 yards to Oklahoma St, even though the score was just 24-14. Texas had its best rushing game of the season against Nebraska (46-209) and in this game, the Longhorns go up against the Wildcats rushing defense, which ranks DEAD-LAST in the nation, allowing 228.5 YPG (5.7 YPC). If Texas can't run on this defense, the Longhorns may as well "give up." Texas is just 4-4 but the Longhorns have outgained each and every opponent, CFB's version of the SD Chargers. The Texas offense has been erratic (I'm not the least bit 'sold' on QB Gilbert) but the Texas 'D' ranks 5th in total yards allowed (267.0). KSU owns a running game which averages 193.4 YPG (25th), led by Daniel Thomas (996 YR / 5.1 YPC). However, I believe the Texas defense is too fast and athletic for Kansas St to have too much success at running the ball. After back-to-back BCS bowl appearances (Texas played in LY's national championship game) and a 25-2 record, this year's team is just 4-4 and not even guaranteed to be bowl-eligible. As far as motivation goes, I believe that favors Texas. Want more motivation? These schools haven't met since 2007, when a Texas team which would finish 10-3 (including a 52-34 Holiday Bowl win over Arizona St) lost 41-21 at home to a Kansas St team which was just 5-7 on the season. Play the Longhorns.