Black Widow
1* on Missouri/Texas Tech OVER 58.5
This game has all the makings of a shootout Saturday when Missouri travels to face Texas Tech. Get ready for some offensive fireworks from two of the most potent offenses in the Big 12. Missouri scores 32.5 points/game this year while Texas Tech puts up 31.9 points/game. The Red Raiders also allow 32.6 points/game, clearly one of the worst defenses in the land while yielding 449 total yards/game. 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series have seen 59 or more combined points, including totals of 93 and 90. The chances of both teams reaching their season averages is highly likely, which would be 64.4 points doing the math. So there's about a full 6 points of value here with the OVER. The OVER is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. The OVER is 6-1 in Red Raiders last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Take the OVER 58.5 points here.
Info Plays
3* on Oklahoma State -8.5
Reasons Oklahoma State covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BAYLOR) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=34 PPG) after 7 or more games, in conference games. This is a 27-3 ATS System hitting 90% since 1992.
2.) Oklahoma State is 13-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in all meetings with Baylor since 1992. That includes a perfect 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in 7 home meetings with the Bears. Bet the Cowboys at home.
JR O'Donnell
Army +7 vs Air Force
Grab the 7 and run to the bank guys as the 5-3 Black Knight's are a Jr O sharp side "High Noon Winner" We will be going to Michie Stadium West Point NY this weekend and play on the Army Black Knights to stay inside the 7 vs these high flying 5-4 Air Force Falcons. These Rich Ellerson lead Knights believe in the system and they can and will run the rock Saturday! The Falcons were punished by the Utes on the ground this past weekend as the Utes rolled up 179 rushing yards and three touchdowns
The JR O Power ratings check in @ Air Force - 2.3 points and that is a huge (ALMOST 4 POINT) over lay. The Army Knights truly believe in D coordinator Payam Saadat who has the boys fired up to play!! Air Force will have trouble moving the rock vs. the Knights. These Army Knights check in @ a rush D that holds opposition to 117.8 ypg on 3.9 yards per attempt. The Army crew has a better D and a fired up home field advantage!! We note that Army checks in @ 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3-10 points. This Jr O crew will back the Black Knights & {the 7} Saturday!
Spartan
Kansas St. +4 vs Texas
I saw where someone on the pregame forum mentioned that he thought Wildcats coach Bill Snyder was overrated and over the hill. Frankly I just shook my head in amazement. When Kansas State decided Ron Prince was not the answer and jettisoned him they turned to Snyder to come back from retirement and restore the program. Snyder put away the golf clubs and answered the bell. The thing about Snyder is he only knows one way to coach and run a program and that is balls to the wall and meticulous control over absolutely everything. I doubt there is a coach in the nation who can get more out of less than Bill Snyder. I can assure you if you were on the sideline saturday and watched the two teams loosen up prior to the opening kick off you would be convinced the Longhorns were the vastly superior team. They are a little bigger, faster and generally more athletic than the Wildcats. However, I fully expect the Wildcats to be totally focused and prepared and possibly prevail here outright. If RB Daniel Thomas was playing at Bama or any higher profile team he would be a Heisman front runner. If you have not watched Thomas yet this year try and catch him in action. He was a high school QB that Snyder converted to RB and he is an absolute stud back. My only concern has been his being worked like a rented mule and getting worn down. The fact is Texas struggles to defend the run and that is not good going into Manhattan this weekend. There is nothing about this game that tells me to side with Texas. They have been playing below expectations most the year and always seem to play to the level of their competition, will catch up to them here as Thomas and the Wildcats take care of business.
Lenny Del Genio
Louisiana Tech -2 vs Fresno St.
Louisiana Tech was a team we looked to fade for much of the first month of the season, but now it appears as if 1st year HC Sonny Dykes has righted the ship in Ruston. Sure enough, after opening 0-4 SU vs. FBS opponents, the Bulldogs have since rallied for a 3-0 ATS run that included an admirable job of staying within the number last Tuesday against #3 Boise State. Prior to that they had smashed both Utah State and Idaho here at home to run their mark to 11-2 ATS L13 at Joe Aillet Stadium that includes a perfect 6 for 6 mark vs. fellow WAC members. Fresno State is headed in the other direction at the betting window on an 0-4 ATS run and after being favored by double-digits the last three games find themselves as just a small favorite this go around (2-13 ATS off a road game). La Tech stayed within a nine-point number LY (Lost 30-28) and should pull the upset in this "Battle of Bulldogs." Play on Louisiana Tech.
James Patrick Sports
Rice vs. Tulsa
Great System in play in this game as we fade teams off a dog win over Notre Dame, (Navy fit this angle last week and true to form the Middies went down, losing SU to Duke as 13-point home favorites). Big Game James Patrick's Saturday NCAA College Football complimentary selection is Rice Owls plus the huge number against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.
Jack Clayton
Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky
Pick: Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic (2-5 SU/3-3 ATS) has a good passing attack for coach Howard Schnellenberger behind senior QB Jeff Vancamp (8 TDs, 6 picks). The defense can be suspect against good passing teams, but that won't be a problem against this Western Kentucky team. Play Florida Atlantic.
Bettorsworld
Missouri vs. Texas Tech
So, you figured you'd heard the last of us talking about the Missouri Tigers eh? You figured that after last weeks loss at Nebraska we'd hop off the bandwagon and move on to greener pastures. Nah. Guess who we like this week?
If you look at the Missouri loss to Nebraska and assume that they were exposed, you'd be wrong. It would be easy to jump to that conclusion if you didn't watch the game but just followed the scoring updates and saw Nebraska roll to a 24-0 lead in the 1st quarter. This is not to take anything away from the Cornhuskers. They beat Missouri. There was no luck involved. The Nebraska defensive line was fantastic. They put tons of pressure on Gabbert, sacking him 6 times and holding him to 18 of 42 with 199 yards.
But sometimes games get out of hand and it has nothing to do with the talent or lack of talent on the field. It happens in football at every level. A big play here, a big play there, and the next thing you know you have a snowball affect. Everything just goes right for one team. That's what happened Saturday in Lincoln. The very first play from scrimmage, Nebraska back Roy Helu broke free and ran 66 yards for a TD. Helu would do that once more in the first quarter and again in the 3rd quarter. Runs of 66, 73 and 53 yards = 21 points for Nebraska.
Take away the 3 big plays and you have a different game. Take away the 1st quarter and you have a different game. From the 2nd quarter on, Missouri won the game. Falling behind 24-0 in the 1st quarter certainly made Missouri have to toss the game plan out the window. So much for that. But plenty of teams would have wilted after that 1st quarter. It could easily have been a 48-0 type game if Mizu packed it in. But they didn't. They battled back to 24-14 and later in the game to 31-17. Despite falling behind by 24, there were times late in the game that it looked as though Mizu could actually cover the +7.5. They had a chance late in the 3rd quarter for 7 but a goal line stance forced the Tigers to settle for 3 instead of 7.
You have to like the fact that Missouri didn't give up. Once again, there's no question Nebraska BEAT Missouri. Helu wouldn't be breaking those big runs if the Nebraska offensive line wasn't opening up holes and guys weren't making key blocks. But some of that early success also had to do with Missouri being so worried about keeping QB Taylor Martinez in check.
The numbers Missouri put up heading into last week were no accident. Beating Oklahoma was no accident. This is a good football team. Beating Texas Tech this week will be no accident.
This Texas Tech team is not even close to Texas Tech teams of the past when Mike Leach was still in town. In fact, Missouri played "good" Texas Tech teams in 2007 and 2008 and beat them by 17 points and 31 points. Here you have a Missouri team that is better than those editions of Missouri, and a Texas Tech team not as good as 2007 and 2008. You're also getting some added line value by what happened last week with Missouri seemingly "exposed".
Texas Tech struggled to get by a very poor Colorado team. The same Colorado team that Missouri blanked 26-0 and the same Colorado team that lost to Oklahoma last week 43-10. Texas AM was able to throttle Texas Tech to the tune of 45-27 last week. Missouri held Texas AM in check 30-9. Missouri also knocked off Illinois to start the year. Not such a big deal at the time, but looking back, perhaps it was more of a big deal. Illinois is playing some great football. They knocked off Penn State, hung tight with Ohio State and just beat Indiana and Purdue by a combined 87-23.
The chance to bounce back after a poor loss is the motivating factor that pushes this play over the edge. The fact that Missouri didn't quit after being down 24-0 to Nebraska speaks volumes. No reason to expect them not to show up this week. They are in the thick of the Big 12 race with this weeks game against Tech likely their toughest the rest of the way.
We feel we have the better team in Missouri at a slight discount as a result of last week. At -5 or -5.5, or anything under a touchdown for that matter, Mizu is the play. We have them winning this one by two touchdowns or more. 3* Missouri -4
Sports Insights
Missouri vs. Texas Tech
Coming off their emotional win over then #1-ranked Oklahoma, Missouri showed up flat for last week's game against Nebraska. Missouri simply had no answer for Roy Helu Jr., who racked up a ridiculous 307 yards and three touchdowns in the 31-17 win for the Cornhuskers.
While Missouri's defense got shredded on the ground against Nebraska, Texas Tech's pass defense got lit up in their most recent game, a 45-27 loss to Texas A&M. The Red Raiders gave up a whopping 623 total yards, 449 of which came through the air.
Missouri opened as a 6.5-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving a staggering 85% of spread bets. This is one of the most lopsided games, in terms of spread betting percentages, of the week, which makes it even more startling to see the line actually drop 2.5 points to -4.
This significant reverse-line movement is a clear indicator big bets are backing the Red Raiders and Sports Insights' Betting Systems have taken notice. Three positive Smart Money Plays have been triggered on Texas Tech, including one at WSEX (+9.27 units). If the betting percentages remain this one-sided, this game is also a strong candidate to be one our NCAA Football Square Plays, which are currently 32-14 (+15.58 units) on the season.
This week we're fading a massive public favorite, following the Smart Money and taking Texas Tech, at home, and the points.
Texas Tech +4.5
JIM FEIST COMP
OREGON STATE/UCLA
TAKE: UNDER
Battle of the running teams! And running the football moves the clock and can keep the score down. Oregon State (4-3 SU/6-1 ATS) offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf likes balance and this offense has a start with RB Jacquizz Rodgers Oregon State defeated California 35-7 on Saturday, playing tough defense in a game that went under the total. They take on a UCLA (3-5) team that has a decent defense, but no passing offense behind sophomore QB Kevin Prince (3 TDs, 5 INTs) and sophomore QB Richard Brehaut (2 TDs, 3 INTs). They have scored 41 points the last 3 games. The one-dimensional offense is becoming a problem, as teams are now focused on stopping the run. UCLA is on a 12-7-1 run under the total. Play Oregon State/UCLA Under the total.
Marc Lawrence
Wyoming at New Mexico
Prediction: New Mexico
Wyoming might be one of the weakest double-digit road favorites to come down the pike in quite a while. Besides the fact they have been outgained in all nine games this season, the Cowboys are just 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS on the conference highway – with no win coming by more than eight points. This first Saturday in November also finds them playing their 10th straight game with no rest and sporting a 1-12-1 ATS log versus a revenging foe. With only Air Force, BYU and TCU left on the New Mexico schedule, this is most likely the last legitimate chance for the Lobos to register a ‘W’ this season. Lobos outright – you heard it here first.
Charlie Scott
Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Play: Oklahoma -3
I normally don't play too many favorites, but feel the public is overreacting in this game and OK is a cheap price at -3. Betting at Sports in Todays market is equivalent to being a trader on Wall Street. If you take a look back the last 3 seasons OK has been favored over Texas AM by -21-27 and -21 and covered each game and now Tonight only -3. Early Summer Line put out by the Hilton had OK-9. Texas AM hasn't caught up yet in talent or playing level to only be +3 vs OK. Plus Texas AM Head Coach Sherman is one of the few Coaches Bob Stoops actually has an advantage over.
Bob Wingerter
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Memphis Tigers
Play: Tennessee Volunteers -19½
The Memphis defense has struggled just as much as the team's offense, as opponents are racking up 41.5 ppg against the Tigers. They are yielding 473.0 total ypg and have allowed a staggering total of 42 touchdowns to opposing offenses. The Tigers are being gashed for 195.2 rushing yards per contest at a clip of 4.9 yards per attempt, and they have surrendered 25 passing touchdowns while intercepting a mere five balls. Frank Trotter leads the defense with 10 TFLs, but there has been very little for Memphis fans to cheer about. The Tigers were gashed by Houston for 651 total yards last weekend, including 403 passing yards. Memphis surrendered six passing scores and failed to register a single interception. The outcome would have been even more lopsided if Houston didn't fail to score on three of its six trips to the red zone. Tennessee will earn a much-needed victory over Memphis, which is one of the worst teams in the FCS.
Craig Trapp
Florida Gators vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Play: Florida Gators -14
Confidence can be a great fix all for a team struggling. Well that OT win by FLA last week will have this FLA pumped as they still control their destiny in the SEC. Florida finally have all the RB's healthy and now they are nearly unstoppable on offense. Vandy on the other hand are just outmanned by the great FLA defense. VAN might not score as the FLA defense will create a ton of TO's. not close as Craig's SAT free play rolls big!
SPORTS WAGERS
Maryland +7½ over MIAMI
12:00 PM EST. It seems we’ve been recommending a bet against the Hurricanes every week or so but until the books and public finally admit Miami have serious flaws we see no reason to deviate from that strategy. The Hurricanes are finally replacing quarterback Jacory Harris after his awful performance and injury last week against lowly Virginia and while we would love to see Harris kill another Miami drive with his inaccuracy and terrible decision making we’ll settle for freshman Stephen Morris’s first ever start. Morris has basically been handed the job by default and is being put in an almost impossible situation taking over the reigns this late in the year, a clear sign that Randy Shannon is over his head and simply isn’t the man for the job. Shannon has been a failure any way you slice it and for him to count on Morris to turn things around is wishful thinking at best. Morris completed 40.9% of his passes last week and only impressed the Hurricane faithful in the fourth quarter when the score was 24-0 and are therefore statistics that should be taken with a big grain of salt. Maryland is 6-2 but has managed to fly completely under the radar due to their lackluster schedule. The Terrapins are coming off a dominating 62-14 win over Wake Forest last week and still have a realistic shot at the ACC title game in December. This is a big, big game for them and while Miami is the best conference opponent they are going to face thus far the confidence and motivation this team has couldn’t be higher right now. Quarterback Danny O’Brien is as solid as they come, completing 57% of his passes while throwing 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions thus far this season. The Terps also rank third in the ACC in points allowed per game and third in rushing yards against. That’s a key stat because it will make Morris have to throw the ball and with that will undoubtedly come mistakes. It’s not a wise decision to wager on freshman quarterbacks, especially when laying points and it’s the reason why Maryland is the play today. Don’t be shocked if Terps pull the upset. Play: #315 Maryland +7½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Northwestern +6½ over PENN STATE
3:30 PM EST. Northwestern is another team that has managed to fly completely under the radar despite having a 6-2 record. Their schedule has been rather tepid and their wins have come against lackluster opponents but again the more a team like Northwestern can win the more the players and coaches confidence and motivation rise. The Wildcats are also unbeaten on the road and we don’t care who they’ve played in college football, as that’s as impressive a stat as they come. Northwestern is led by one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 10 in Dan Persa, a guy
that could be playing on Sundays in the future. Persa completes a ridiculous 75% of his passes while sporting a 12-3 touchdown to interception ratio. He also leads the Wildcats in rushing yards and has scored six touchdowns by ground for a grand total of 18 touchdowns on the season. Penn St. is going to have a hard time stopping Persa considering their porous run defense, a defense that has allowed the third most rushing yards in the Big 10 and only intercepted seven passes on the year. The Nittany Lions would be in serious trouble if not for their stud running back Evan Royster and much like Clemson and Andre Ellington if Royster can’t get going Penn State doesn’t have much of a chance to win. The Northwestern run defense isn’t anything to write home about but is still decent; opponents have run for an average of 4.2 yards per carry, a number that puts them in the middle of the Big 10 pack and a number that proves they have a chance at stopping the Nittany Lions run game. If the Wildcats contain Royster they’ll win the game and even if they don’t we still expect the points to come in handy when the clock hits zero. Play: Northwestern +6½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).