EZWINNERS
NC State Wolfpack +3.5
NC State has lost six straight games in this series against the Tigers since Phillip Rivers last beat them in 2003. That is the Wolfpack's longest active losing streak against any Atlantic Coast Conference team. NC State has defeated every other ACC team at least once since then but I believe this is the year that they break that streak. C.J. Spiller was a one man wrecking crew against NC State in the past, but Spiller is now in the NFL and Clemson will also be without one of their top weapons as leading rusher Andre Ellington injured a toe in last week's loss to Boston College and will miss this game. NC State quarterback Russell Wilson is playing very well and I expect him to lead the Wolfpack to victory. The road team has covered the spread in five straight meetings between these two teams and eleven out of the last thirteen games. NC State head coach Tom O'Brien is 11-6 against the spread as a road dog with the Wolfpack including 2-0 against the spread in that role this season. Take the points.
Chuck O'Brien
Illinois (+3) at MICHIGAN
I’ve hit three of my last four free plays, and here I’m taking Illinois plus the points at Michigan.
Two teams going in different directions, as the Illini have won five of their last seven contests, including back-to-back blowout wins the last two weeks over Indiana (43-13) and Purdue (44-10). Their only blemishes this season came against three teams (Missouri, Ohio State and Michigan State) that are all highly ranked, and Illinois gave both Ohio State (24-13) and Missouri (23-13) a battle.
Michigan is serving up a carbon copy of last year’s campaign. Just like last season, the Wolverines raced out to a hot start (4-0 last year; 5-0 this year). And just like last season – when they went on to lose their final seven games in conference play – they’ve dropped off the map, losing three straight to Michigan State, Iowa and Penn State, all by double digits.
Michigan’s problem is it simply cannot stop anybody. Since Big Ten play started, the Wolverines have surrendered 35, 34, 38 and 41 points while allowing an average of 480.5 yards per game! Well, as noted above, Illinois has had its offense cranked up the last two weeks (87 total points) and it has scored at least 28 points in all five wins; in their three losses, the Illini managed a total of just 32 points.
Meanwhile, unlike Michigan, Illinois’ defense has been solid all season, yielding just 16.8 points and 301.4 yards per game. No opponent has tallied more than 26 points against the Illini, and that was Michigan State (which scored 23 of its 26 points in the second half).
After losing six straight to Michigan from 2000-07, Illinois has taken down Rich Rodriguez’s squad each of the last two years, both times as an underdog and both times in convincing fashion (45-20 in Ann Arbor; 38-13 at home last year). Make it three in a row for the Illini (6-2 ATS this year) over Michigan, which is 2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS last three Novembers.
4♦ ILLINOIS
Derek Mancini
Texas Christian at UTAH (+4')
Talk about getting no respect. You would think only one team was undefeated when TCU visits Utah. That would be a mistaken assumption.
The Utes are good; damn good. They've won their games this season by an average margin of 45-14 and outgained their competition by 182 yards a game. That's called domination and that's not much different than how TCU has outscored its foes this season on average 41-9 with a 268-yard edge an outing. I call that even, especially when you consider Utah has played just as tough of a schedule, hosting Pittsburgh from the Big East in its season opener, rolling over Iowa State on the road, and visiting Air Force last Saturday.
That's not to say TCU has played an easy schedule; the Horned Frogs beat Oregon State, Baylor and Air Force at home. The key word there is "home." This is TCU's first legitimate challenge outside of Ft. Worth this season.
Everyone notes how tough TCU is defensively, and the Horned Frogs are among the nation's elite, but Utah is no slouch, either as the Utes are ranked 14th against the run and 48th against the pass. Stopping the run is key here against the Frogs and the Utes have allowed opposing backs to average just 2.9 ypc and 103 ypg this season.
Here's the kicker: Utah is 5-0 ATS as a home dog the past decade. You don't find them getting points too often, but when they do, they cover. And this is a HUGE revenge game as TCU ran over a far more inexperienced Utah team last year in Ft. Worth 55-28. No such blowout today as the Utes keep this one close enough for the cover, improving to 6-0 ATS as a home pup the last 10 years. Utah plus the points over TCU Saturday.
2♦ UTAH
Bobby Maxwell
Arkansas (+4) at S. CAROLINA
Ryan Mallett brings the Razorbacks to South Carolina to face the Gamecocks and I expect the SEC’s top passing QB will have a huge day and either get his team the outright win or definitely get inside the number. Grab the points and play Arkansas in this one.
The Razorbacks average 360.2 yards per game through the air and Mallett is coming off a monster game in last week’s 49-14 win over Vanderbilt when he threw for a school-record 409 yards and three TDs. Arkansas has been an offensive juggernaut lately, putting up 87 points the last two weeks, dominating both Vandy and Mississippi. This team is 3-1 on the road (SU and ATS) this season and their lone loss was that big shootout in Auburn, blowing it in the final quarter.
South Carolina is also capable of putting up some points, but the problem for the Gamecocks is their inability to stop teams that throw the ball. They allow 260 yards per game through the air, the worst mark in the SEC. They do get some pressure on the QB but if the Razorbacks can contain their front four, this game could be real easy for Mallett.
Mallett went 23-of-27 last season against the Gamecocks for 329 yards and led Arkansas to a 33-16 victory at home as 7 ½-point favorites. The Razorbacks have won three of the last four clashes and they’ve cashed in seven of the last nine.
Arkansas comes in on several positive ATS surges, including 10-4 as an underdog, 8-3 against winning teams, 5-1 overall, 5-0 in November contests, 7-1 in SEC action and 6-2 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, South Carolina is on ATS slides of 0-4 after a straight-up win, 3-7 as a favorite and 2-6 as a home chalk.
This should be an entertaining game as both teams know how to put the ball in the end zone. But Arkansas brings in more firepower and against a South Carolina defense that is just not good against the pass. Grab the points and play the Razorbacks.
4♦ ARKANSAS
Chuck O'Brien
Hawaii (+21) at BOISE STATE
I’ve hit three of my last four free plays overall, and here I’m taking Hawaii plus the points against Boise State.
This number has actually come down all week, with sharp money playing Hawaii. Seems odd given all the national pub Boise State has received this season (not to mention the importance of each and every game for the Broncos). However, Hawaii has proven this season that it is no pushover. The Warriors gave USC all it could handle in the season opener, and they enter this contest having won six straight games both on the field and against the number.
That includes a 5-0 start to the WAC season, with blowout road wins over Fresno State (49-27 as a 10 ½-point underdog) and Utah State (45-7 as a 3½-point chalk), plus a very impressive 27-21 upset home win over nationally ranked Nevada. No surprise that Hawaii’s offense is one of the best in the country – the Warriors have scored more than 40 points five times during their six-game winning streak), but now they’re also getting solid defensive play. Since allowing an average of 36 ppg in the first three contests, Hawaii has limited its last six foes to just 15.5 ppg, with only Fresno State (27) scoring more than three TDs.
Obviously, Hawaii will be tested in a big way today on both sides of the ball playing on the blue turf in Boise. But the Broncos didn’t look all that sharp in their 49-20 home win over Louisiana Tech last week, and the only two quality opponents Boise has faced so far – Virginia Tech (33-30 loss in Washington D.C.) and Oregon State (37-24 loss in Boise) – gave the Broncos a battle.
Hawaii has cashed in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry, including two easy covers in its last two trips to Boise. The Warriors have also been a spread-covering machine going back to last year (12-3 ATS last 15 overall; 5-1 ATS last six on the road), while the Broncos have now failed to cover in four of their last five as a home favorite (all as a double-digit chalk).
Boise keeps its perfect season alive, but it’s not going to be as easy as many think.
2♦ HAWAII
Derek Mancini
Alabama at LOUISIANA STATE (+6')
Bettors are eating up the chalk in this contest, but buyer beware, the Bayou Bengals are more than up to the task against the Tide this afternoon. This one obviously comes down to defense, and neither one of these team's disappoints in that department. However, for all the talk about Bama's edge on D, note the Tigers allow 11 ppg on just 220 total yards in Baton Rouge.
Both teams are coming off an open week, and while most might give the edge to Saban in that area, I'm inclined to give it to the LSU, who not only needs the extra prep time, but also comes in off a tough loss to Auburn.
I know what the trends say, and most are in favor of Alabama, but with over 85% of the betting public on the Tide, I'd be very wary of laying this many in such an obvious spot. Oddsmakers aren't stupid, and they know the public believes Alabama to be the superior team. The fact the line hasn't moved off the 6 1/2 (despite the money pouring in on 'Bama) tells me everything I need to know.
This game reminds me a lot of the LSU/Florida game, where no one gave the Tigers a chance, and yet the Lee/Jefferson combo was solid, while Ridley got it done against a very tough Gators defense on the road. There's a lot of riding on this game for both teams, but the double revenge angle is tough to ignore.
Saban may have trounced an underachieving Volunteers defense two weeks ago, but the Tigers are not only just as talented as 'Bama, but have a major chip on their shoulders. Saban may get another win in this series, but this Tigers defense is too good not to keep it within the number. Small play on Louisiana State plus the points over Alabama Saturday.
1♦ LOUISIANA STATE
Karl Garrett
Southern Miss (-9') at TULANE
G-Man says to lay the points with the visiting Southern Miss Golden Eagles as I expect them to torch the Green Wave of Tulane yet again.
Southern Miss should be well represented in the stands, as Hattiesburg is a short drive to New Orleans, plus the Golden Eagles should have some added fuel after seeing their 4th quarter 14-point comeback fall shy against UAB last week at home in double-overtime.
Series numbers since 2003 show Southern Miss with 5 straight wins and covers in the last pair, and 3 of the last 4 series meetings.
Doubt seriously if the Green Wave offense is going to keep pace with the high-octane Eagles today, and doubt seriously the Green Wave will hang inside of this impost.
Southern Miss owns Tulane for a 6th straight meeting.
Lay the points.
5♦ SOUTHERN MISS
Joel Tyson
Arizona (+9') at STANFORD
This has been a wild series the last few years, with only 7-points total seperating the teams the last 3 times they have played!
With Arizona starting QB Nick Foles expected back under center, look for the 'Cats to trade points with the Tree all night long.
Throw out Stanford's shutout win over Washington last week, as the Huskies are dead in the water, and you will see that in their previous 3 games, the Cardinal defense has been gouged for some serious points.
Arizona's attack is capable of reaching the end-zone more than a few times, and they are averaging 31-points per game their last 4 in Pac 10 play.
Throw in the 'Cats 6-2 spread mark the last 8 played at Stanford, and I believe we are going to have us an old-fashioned shootout on the Farm.
Take the points.
3♦ STANFORD
Joel Tyson
Tennessee (-20') at MEMPHIS
Have to lay the big road wood with Tennessee this Saturday night, as I expect a humiliation of Memphis to ensue.
The Vols finally find a team they can take out all of their 2010 frustrations on in the Memphis Tigers.
Coming out of their bye week, the Tigers got hammered by a weak Houston squad giving up 49 straight points during one stretch!
Since the UTEP loss, Memphis has been outscored 201-43.
Last year, Tennessee won handily, 56-28. Derek Dooley has finally settled on his QB, benching Simms for Frosh Tyler Bray, and the pass offense cranked out 312 yards; averaging 16 yards per completion against a tough South Carolina defense last week in a cover at Columbia. WR Denarius Moore had six catches for 228 yards and a TD in that game.
The Volunteers will look to exploit the Memphis pass defense which is ranked dead last giving up 25 TD passes this year, and after games against LSU, Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina, Tennessee gets the chance to hammer a Memphis team that has lost their last 5 games, and have failed to cover in their last 4.
Lay it.
3♦ TENNNESSEE
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona St. at USC (-6)
For my comp play, even though the Trojans got trounced at home against Oregon last week, falling 53-32 to the country’s top team, USC looked very good for three quarters and even had a lead midway through the third quarter. The Trojans have as good an offense as there is in the country, it’s just that their defense has been shredded seemingly every time out this season. But today, I’m looking for them to get a few key turnovers that will ignite the offense and get USC the win by at least two TDs.
The Trojans have dominated Arizona State in the past decade, winning every time out the last ten years. Last time the two squared off in Los Angeles, the Trojans scored a 28-0 shutout. In fact, the last two years, USC has outscored the Sun Devils 42-9.
USC puts up 36.8 points a game and racks up 479.4 yards per contest. QB Matt Barkley has thrown for 2,133 yards, 21 TDs and just six INTs. If this team wasn’t on probation and had any kind of defense, he’d be in the Heisman Trophy talk with those kind of numbers. On the other side is Arizona State QB Steven Threet who has 2,144 yards but he has 14 TDs and 13 INTs. He’s going to complete the pass, only nobody knows to which team.
Both teams like to air it out, so there should be some points put on the scoreboard, but the key is going to be turnovers and Arizona State has made it a habit of committing way too many. Look for a couple of key second half turnovers in this one that propels USC to the win.
The Sun Devils are on ATS skids of 2-5-1 on the road, 10-21 in November games, 3-10-1 after a spread-cover and 7-20-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. USC is on quite a few positive ATS streaks, including 16-5 after a straight-up loss, 22-7 in November contests, 4-1 after a non-cover and 16-6 as a favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points.
I’ll lay the small points and play USC to win this one with relative ease when all is said and done.
3♦ USC
Tom Freese
Nebraska at Iowa St.
Play: Nebraska
Nebraska is 7-1 Straight Up this year. The Cornhuskers are 9-1 ATS their last 10 games as road favorites of 10.5 or greater. Nebraska is 13-5 ATS their last 18 games after passing for less than 170 yards in their last game. The Huskers are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Iowa St is 5-4 Straight Up this year. The Cyclones are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their last game. The Cyclones are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games as home underdogs and they are 4-9-1 ATS vs. the Cornhuskers.
Jimmy Moore
Air Force @ Army
Pick: Air Force -6.5
Any time military teams play each other it is a big game and Air Force will be very motivated for the win to grab the Commander-in-chief trophy. They have covered 11 of the past 13 in this series and Army's weak schedule has not helped to prepare them for the tough Falcons.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on USC Trojans -5
ASU was blown out 50-17 by a Cal team that USC crushed 48-14. USC has the superior athletes, and I believe the Sun Devils will have the same problems with USC's explosive offense that they had with Cal's.
The big question this week is if USC will be ready to play after putting so much stock in last week's game against Oregon. The simple answer to that is "yes." USC also put a lot into its game against Stanford, only to come up short, but it responded with a stellar performance against Cal the following week. I expect the Trojans to respond similarly here.
This series has been all USC as the Trojans have won the last 10 meetings straight up while covering the number in 7 of those wins. In addition, it can't be overlooked that ASU is just 1-8 ATS in its last 9 road games against teams with winning records, losing these games by an average score of 32.7 to 18.3. I'm laying the points with USC.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Arkansas Razorbacks +4.5
I'm taking the points in a game I feel could be decided by a field goal either way. Arkansas crushed S. Carolina 33-16 last season. I know the Gamecocks have improved, but so have the Hogs. Ryan Mallett has been picking secondaries apart all season, and S. Carolina's 105th ranked pass defense will be able to do little to stop him. The Razorbacks are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. The Gamecocks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, including 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Take Arkansas.
OC Dooley
Baylor +8.5
One of the ongoing arguments in college football is whether high-ranked teams from “non” BCS schools (Boise State, Texas Christian) deserve a shot to play in the national championship game if they run the table. Due to ESPN having the opportunity to televise their games, it has been Boise State who has received the bulk of the national “small school” attention as they had the opportunity to play Virginia Tech in an ESPN Monday primetime battle opening week. Almost completely ignored on opening week was TCU’s victory over an opponent (Baylor) who very quietly is having one of the nation’s biggest turnaround campaigns. For those who have yet to watch Baylor, they are led by quarterback Robert Griffin who at one time was a high school star in the state of Texas (Friday Night Lights) as his coach was offensive mastermind Art Briles. When Briles advanced to the collegiate level (Houston Cougars) Griffin followed him. After a run of success with the Cougars, Briles moved up to a bigger paycheck with Baylor and once again Griffin followed him. For those who watch FOX-NET early today you will see that Griffin has the speed of a world-class hurdler which is why he rushed for more than 840 yards on the ground during his freshman season of 2008. Due to a severe knee injury most of 2009 was wiped away, but Griffin obviously is back to full health in 2010 where Baylor has already become “bowl eligible” for the first time in fifteen long years when the Big-12 Conference as we know it was formed in 1995. One would have thought that after garnering enough wins for postseason consideration two weeks ago that Baylor would suffer an emotional letdown on the road last Saturday, but that was not the case as the Bears pulled off a stunning underdog OUTRIGHT upset of the Texas Longhorns. One of the reasons why Baylor’s attack has been so successful has to do with a massive offensive line which features a pair of 300-POUND giants that can literally move concrete in the pits. Baylor also has a special teams weapon in Derek Epperson who a year ago was one of the nation’s best punters averaging more than 45 yards per boot. Regarding today’s game I am fully aware that Oklahoma State has owned Baylor in this series (13-2 SU/11-3 ATS) and that the Cowboys have reinstated wide receiver star Justin Blackmon (62 receptions, 112 yards, 14 touchdown catches) after a one-game suspension. But due to the fact that Oklahoma State is involved in such high scoring games, their secondary has statistically been shaky which opens the door to an interesting database angle. Baylor just happens to be on a productive 11-3 ATS roll when facing a poor pass defense that allows the opposition on average to complete at least 58% of their attempts. In the past three years Baylor has successfully COVERED the spread at an 8-1 clip on the road when facing an opponent with a “winning” record and Oklahoma State certainly fits that bill
John Ryan Sports
Washington Huskies @ Oregon Ducks
Pick: Washington Huskies +36.5
5* graded play on Washington as they take on No. 1 Oregon set to start at 3:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than 35 points. No.1 Oregon continues to roll over all opponents by double digits and Washington will not be a threat to their perfect season and quest for the BCS National Championship game. However, Washington will cover the 35 point spread.
The Ducks surprisingly trailed the Southern Cal Trojans 32-29 early in the third quarter. The Ducks answer was not one of panic, but instead went on a 24-0 run to defeat the Trojans soundly by 21 points. The biggest news is that Oregon’s quarterback Jake Locker has a broken rib and will not start. Before the season started he was considered a contender for the Heisman Trophy and his decision to return to Washington instead of entering the NFL draft has cost him big time money. Washington’s failures cannot be placed all on his shoulders though as his supporting cast has failed to consistently execute even the simplest of play assignments. The opening line was Oregon favored by 27 points with a 65 1/2 point total. The Locker news immediately added eight points to the line now at Oregon by 35 points and moved the total 2 1/2 points higher to 68 points. This amount now provides a solid opportunity to bet Washington. In my opinion, there is not eight points difference between Locker and freshman Keith Price, who is making his first career start. The change in quarterback may just be the right thing for this Huskie team to go out there and give the Ducks a little competition.
Price is from Compton, California and attended St. John Bosco High School, where Nomar Garciaparra and Evan Longoria attended. He is a duel threat that has an excellent arm and the ability to run the ball. He is not blazing fast posting a 4.7 second 40-yard dash, but is extremely quick with the ability change directions on a dime. Scouts at all levels have compared him to Dennis Dixon and these skills may provide some problems for a Ducks defense that gives up many points for a team ranked No.1 in the nation.
This Huskie team defeated Southern Cal 32-31 as 9 1/2 point road dogs back on October 2. Locker was knocked out of this game in a critical fourth quarter drive and Price came in wasting no time and threw a touch down pass on his first play. I like any quarterback that has this confidence and ability with his team getting 35 points.
On the technical side, the Huskies are supported by a system that has produced a 34-10 ATS mark for 77% victories since 1992. Play on a road team that is averaging 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games and now facing a team with a good defense allowing 4.2 to 4.8 yards per play. 60.5% of these games covered the spread by seven or more points. This system has posted a perfect 5-0 ATS mark over the past three seasons.
Carolina Sports
Maryland at Miami (-8)
Miami has underachieved all year and this could be the end of the Randy Shannon era. Last week was an absolute joke and they didn’t even show up vs Virginia til the 4th quarter. Jacory Harris is doubtful this week with a concussion. That may be a blessing in disguise for Miami. The Canes seem to be in disarray right now and if they didn’t show up last week, why would they show up this week? Maryland has an underrated defense as they are allowing 4.4 yppl but it is against teams that only avg 4.8 yppl. Doesn’t matter as they have the confidence in this game and won’t be intimidated by the Canes. Several systems favor Miami in this game but we are gonna go on a hunch and call for the game to come down to the number. Miami 28-20.
NC State at Clemson (-3.5)
NC State is coming off an emotional win last week at home against FSU. FSU out-gained NC State 6.1-4.5. NC State is a good football team but this is letdown situation for them as they go on the road to play a desperate Clemson team. Clemson knows they have to win this game as they still have Florida St and South Carolina remaining. NC State has the better offense, as they are avg 5.5 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.2 yppl. They are running 80 plays a game. Clemson defense has been solid all season and will need to step up in this game. Coach O’Brien usually has his team playing its best late in the season as he is 14-4 ATS in the second half of th season as coach at NC State. Our ratings have Clemson –3 and we will call for a 3-point Clemson win. Clemson 24-21
Louisville at Syracuse (-5.5)
The Cuse come into this game off winning 3 out of 4 to start Big East play and all three were on the road. There only loss was at home to Pittsburgh but they committed 4 TO’s in that game. Their D has been rock solid only allowing 4.5 yppl during that time. There is no doubt Syracuse is winning these games because of a strong defense and efficient offense. They are not a flashy or explosive team but just do all of the little things well. They rank tied for 11th nationally in red zone defense. Louisville is much improved football team and their numbers show it. They are avg 6.3 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.8 yppl and on defense they allow 5.4 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.4 yppl. Look for this to be a defensive struggle as both teams are up to the challenge in stopping the others offensive unit. There is a sense of pride back in The Dome for Cuse football and a win here makes them bowl eligible. Last years game was a defensive struggle as The Cards survived 10-9. We will call for another low scoring game in this one as the under looks like the call. Syracuse 17-12
Iowa (-17) at Indiana
Our ratings have Iowa –20 in this game but Indiana falls into three systems of ours that are 50-24, 39-14, and 69-29. Indiana has a terrible defense and Iowa should reach their avg in ppg at 34.1. Indiana is allowing 6.3 yppl and struggle against quality teams. Iowa is coming off 4 games against quality Big Ten opponents and may have a letdown in this one. Iowa 37-23
Boston College (-3) at Wake Forest
When looking at BC this is a team that has faced several quality defenses this year. Their offense is avg 4.7 yppl but against teams that combine to allow 5.1 yppl. The schedule of teams that BC has faced is .4-yppl better than average defensively. They now will be face a team this week that is absolutely awful defensively. Wake Forest is allowing 6.1-yppl but the number increases if you take out the Presbyterian game. Wake is allowing 40.7 ppg and yes, even Boston College will be able to score against them. If BC had faced poor defenses then we would probably say they wouldn’t over their avg 18.7 ppg. BC has a strong defense as they only allowing 4.4 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.4 yppl. Wake is avg 5.1 yppl on offense and will struggle this week again BC’s defense. These two teams play each closely as the last two years BC as won by 3 both times. We will call for BC to get the road win as our computer has them winning by 5. We will call for a bigger win just because of the defensive factor in this game that BC holds a huge edge to. Boston College 30-19
Northwestern at Penn St (-6)
The QB situation is still not certain for this week. Penn St walk-on back-up QB has done well but if you noticed he went against two poor defenses in Minnesota and Michigan. Northwestern allows 6.5 yppa so this will be the best pass defense he has faced so far. If Rob Bolden plays Penn St should have a better opportunity to win and cover. Our computer calls for a 6-point win without Bolden (34-28) and 9 point win with Bolden (37-28). We will leave it at that
Wisconsin (-20) at Purdue
This years Badger team seems to be disinterested in games they know they should blow teams out and when they get big leads in those games they seem to roll over in the 4th quarter. Wisconsin failed to cover at UNLV (-20.5), home against Arizona St (-11), home against San Jose St (-39), home against Minnesota (-21.5). If Wisconsin comes to play 4 quarters then they will destroy Purdue. However, Purdue plays hard, they are at home and we are not going to buck this trend that we see in this Badger team this year. Just to show you how we always don’t agree with our computer, our computer has Wisconsin wins by 27. We will call for a smaller win. Wisconsin 30-13
Minnesota at Michigan St (-24)
Minnesota has packed it in on the season but they catch Michigan State in a HUGE letdown situation after losing their undefeated season last week to Iowa. Iowa beat them up pretty good and we don’t expect MSU to be motivated in this game. If Mich St were 4-0 or 5-0 playing in this game with only Purdue on deck, then they would be focused and with their talent would destroy Minnesota. With the motivational factor not there look for Minnesota to stay around the number and get the cover. Minnesota does fall into an 86-41 big underdog system of ours. Michigan St 41-20
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Hawaii at Boise St (-21)
Hawaii is for real and is a team that Boise St should not take lightly. Hawaii is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS and playing great football right now. We all know how good Boise St is and we don’t have to go into the numbers. The key to this game is Hawaii’s defense. Can Hawaii’s defense control Boise St and keep the game close and we think they can. Hawaii is allowing 4.9 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.4 yppl and that should be enough to keep the game close. Boise St is great offensively but the pressure of the BCS may get to them knowing what the point spread is and the fact that they need to blowout every team. Boise St is at home where they have dominated WAC opponents. Last week Boise failed to cover against La Tech as 36-pt favorites and did allow 20 points in that game. Hawaii has a much better offense and we don’t feel they will give up 49 points to Boise because of the talent they have on defense. Our ratings have Boise St –17. Hawaii falls into a tremendous 47-15 system of ours, which really makes this game more enticing for us. Hawaii is focused and just may take Boise to the wire. Boise 37-26
Temple (-3) at Kent St
Two of the best teams in the MAC square off with two of the top defense in the MAC. Kent is actually third in the nation at 4.0 yppl defensively. Kent is allowing 4.0 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 4.5 yppl. Temple has a much better offense than any team Kent has faced this year so this will be a challenge for the Golden Flashes. The statistical match-up in this game, which will be very intriguing, is Kent St run defense, which is allowing 66ypg and 2.1 ypr. KSU has not faced a rush offense like Temple all season as the Owls avg 4.7 ypr vs teams that combine to allow 4.1 ypr. By looking at the numbers and adjusting accordingly Temple should get about 135 yards on the ground at 3.8 ypr. Temple really doesn’t have a quality passing game and KSU should neutralize them through the air. Looking at Temple’s defense, they are only allowing 4.6 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.0 yppl. Kent is avg 4.7 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.6 yppl so we don’t expect much offense from Kent in this game. This is going to be an ugly game between two teams that come in on small winning streaks and blowing out poor teams. Temple has a slight edge in special teams, as both are really not that great. The under 41 looks like an attractive play for us. Temple is 6-0 under after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins this seasons. Also, Temple falls into a 44-20 under system based on shut out wins by more than 17 points. For the side this will come down to a field goal. Temple 19-17
Nevada (-11) at Idaho
Nevada has been very good this year offensively, as they have avg 41.9 ppg. They are a tremendous running team avg 6.3 ypr vs teams that combine to allow 4.7 ypr. After getting out to a HUGE lead last week against Utah St they packed it in the second half and gave up 42 points and 399 yards passing (6.4 yppl combined). Nevada ‘s defense is allowing 5.7 yppl to teams that combine to avg 5.4 yppl. That stat caught our attention as they are only giving up 22.7 ppg but now take on a team that can score. Idaho is avg 30.1 ppg and avg 5.7 yppl. Idaho stats get better at home as they are avg 37.1 ppg and 5.8 yppl. Defensively Idaho is a little below avg as they allow 5.6 yppl. This is a game where we think Nevada will be caught looking ahead as they have a tough road game next week at Fresno St. Idaho has just enough and just enough defense to keep this game close. Our ratings have Nevada –10 but we will call for a 7-point win. Nevada 41-34
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Arkansas Razorbacks +4.5
I'm taking the points in a game I feel could be decided by a field goal either way. Arkansas crushed S. Carolina 33-16 last season. I know the Gamecocks have improved, but so have the Hogs. Ryan Mallett has been picking secondaries apart all season, and S. Carolina's 105th ranked pass defense will be able to do little to stop him. The Razorbacks are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. The Gamecocks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, including 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Take Arkansas.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Florida State Seminoles -10.5
With a couple extra days of preparation time following last week's tough loss to NC State, I expect FSU to bounce back strong at home this afternoon. Going back to 1992, FSU has won 7 straight at home over UNC by an average score of 37 to 13. Plus, the Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Lay the points.
Jack Jones
Utah +5
TCU has never won in Salt Lake City, and I don't believe they will come away with their first victory there Saturday. Utah is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in 3 home meetings with the Horned Frogs, winning 13-10, 20-7 and 21-7. This Utes team continues getting overlooked by the public and by the odds makers, which will have them highly motivated Saturday. All they've been hearing about is that TCU and Boise State are the only non-AQ teams that have a chance to play in a BCS game. The Utes are not buying it.
Utah ranks fifth in the BCS and places third in the nation in scoring (45.3 PPG) and sixth in scoring defense (14.1 PPG). Utah has won three of the past four meetings in this series, so they know how to beat TCU. The key to this game is Utah's run defense, one that allows just 103 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. At home they have been even better, yielding 76 rushing yards and 2.3 yards per rush. Utah is 24-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. The Utes are 10-1 ATS in home games after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. Bet Utah Saturday.