Vegas Sports Informer
Take Take Iowa State (+7.5) over Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State comes into Ames, Iowa, fresh off a whipping at home against Texas and I think they might get caught napping here against a team looking to increase their bowl chances under first year head coach Paul Rhoads. Making a bowl would be a big accomplishment in Rhoads’ first year and they are getting some players back this week, namely quarterback Austen Arnaud and offensive lineman Reggie Stephens. Meanwhile Oklahoma State has lost some firepower, losing wide receiver Desmond Bryant and their running back Kendall Hunter is banged up. I think this is a dangerous spot on the road facing a Cyclones that is looking for payback from a 59-17 loss last year.
Red Dog Sports
Duke at UNC
Play Duke +10
Duke is 5-3 overall (3-1 in ACC)
UNC (5-3 overall) (1-3 in ACC)
Play Duke +10
I follow UNC closely (especially in basketball) and think this game will be close. Duke is off 3 ACC wins:
won at UVA 28-17
won vs. Md by 17-13
won at NC St by 49-28
The meetings between these teams has been close with UNC winning 28-20, 24-20, 45-44 and 24-21 in the last few years. The Duke QB (Lewis) has gone 20-35 for 285 yards, 18-27 for 219 yeards and 34-49 for 278 yards vs. the Tar Heels and is a senior with confidence. Duke only lost to Va Tech by 34-26. Lewis has 15 TD's and just 4 int's while TJ Yates of UNC has 9 TD's and 9 int's.
This game is sold out for Homecoming and should be a close game as most in this rivalry but Duke doesn't have to worry about traveling very far (less than 10 miles) to get to Chapel Hill's Kenan Stadium. Look for a game that is decided by 7 or less and ends in the range of 28-24.
Duke +10
WUNDERDOG
Northwestern at Iowa
Pick: Iowa -16
A lot of people are down on Iowa based on their performance last week. They were down 24-14 going into the fourth quarter vs. Indiana. They went on to win the game by 18 points, scoring 28 unanswered in the final period. But instead of getting credit for that feat, they are getting beat up. I was actually impressed by that, knowing that Iowa was in a difficult spot last week. The fact that they could make that sort of comeback says a lot about a team that was supposed to be about defense only. We've been on Iowa a few times this year and they've done well for us. I like them here as well. They feel like they have something to prove based on what happened last week. They are also motivated by revenge. Northwestern beat the Hawkeyes 22-17 last season. That was a stinging loss as Iowa was favored by 9 points coming into the game. Even after allowing 24 last week, the Hawkeyes are giving up just 15.8 per game on average on the season. These teams have shared three opponents this season: Indiana, Michigan State and Penn State. The Wildcats lost two of those three and averaged 18.7 points scored vs. 28.7 allowed. Iowa beat all three including Penn State on the road. Their average score vs. the three was 26 to 15.7. Iowa is just too strong, and they have a couple of big motivating factors to boot. I like Iowa to run away with this one.
Michael Alexander
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh U
Play: Pittsburgh U -21.5
Pittsburgh rolls into this one with the nation's fourth-leading rusher sporting a 7-1 mark and rank 14th in the Nation. In addition, they have a QB that is third in the nation in passer rating (161.1) and has thrown 16 touchdowns with only four interceptions. Overall the offense has turned over the ball only 8 times and that ties them for ninth fewest. On defense the Panthers lead the nation in sacks their 33 sacks are equal to its total from 13 games last season.
That doesn't bode well for the Orangemen as they will not have the services of one of the nation's most dangerous receivers. Williams leads the Big East with 106.6 yards per game but mysteriously quit the team Monday. Overall the Syracuse offense is 106th in the nation with 312.6 yards per game and quarterback Greg Paulus has gotten worse since conference play began. After completing 68.7 percent of his passes, throwing seven TDs against four interceptions his completion percentage has dropped to 58.3.
Game Angles: PITTSBURGH is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1992 while SYRACUSE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Lots of points to give in a conference game but this one is going to be a blowout!
Terron Chapman
Florida State vs. Clemson
Play: Clemson -8.5
The Florida St Seminoles have defined inconsistency this season. They needed a late fourth quarter touchdown to outlast the North Carolina Wolfpack, 45-42 in Tallahassee last Saturday to pull to .500 on the season. The Seminoles have had played much better on the road and they’ll need to be at their best Saturday evening when they visit Death Valley in Clemson, South Carolina on ESPN‘s Saturday night telecast.
The Seminoles enter with a two-game winning streak after sweeping the state of North Carolina. This trip to the other Carolina will be the toughest one to date. The Tigers will have revenge on their minds after last year’s 41-27 loss in Tallahassee. Clemson will also have plenty of confidence after rebounding from a disappointing loss on the road to Maryland, to win three straight (Wake Forest, @ Miami, Coastal Carolina) all in impressive fashion.
A lot of what the Florida St Seminoles will be able to do hinges on the health of quarterback Christian Ponder. Ponder is having a terrific season, completing 69% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions. But Ponder hasn’t practiced much this week with sore ribs and while he is expected to start on Saturday, he won’t be 100%. The Seminoles offense goes as Ponder goes and he’ll need to be sharp against a pretty solid Tiger defense allowing 4.2 ypp.
The Seminoles defense has been the Achilles heal of the club all season, and while many expect them to rally for their defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews, I just don’t see them being able to slow down this Clemson attack. The announcement of Andrew’s departure is sure to rally the troops, but this Seminole defense is not as talented as we are accustomed to seeing. They are allowing 4.7 ypra and 6.7 ypp with teams converting 40% of their third down situations. It’s hard to win on the road when your defense is giving up chunks of yards and keeping teams in the game by not being able to get off of the field.
The Clemson Tigers are starting to surge at the right time. They still have an outside shot at the Atlantic crown and they should bring their best with them Saturday on the national stage. I don’t know what Seminoles team will show up. But with too many questions on defense and their quarterback not at full health, I don’t think the Seminoles will walk out of Memorial Stadium with a victory. The Tigers will have more big plays in the end and I look for them to win this one by double-digits, so lay the points. Play on the Clemson Tigers for 2.5 units.
Matt Fargo
Florida State vs. Clemson
Play: Florida State +9.5
Florida St. won a second straight game this past weekend, both of which have come by only three points. It was a shootout against the Wolfpack and the Seminoles survived to even their record at 4-4 on the year. A lot of people were down on Florida St. after the 2-4 start but after the huge come-from-behind victory over the Tar Heels, this team is playing with some excellent momentum and we get some great line value here. These two met at about the same time a season ago with Florida St. favored by 3.5 points and now it is a 12-point line shift to this season which is an extremely big move from one season to the next. The Seminoles came into that game last season 6-2 while Clemson was 4-4 so if anything, the only shift we should see if a reversal due to the home field. Instead, we are getting an additional five points based on nothing. Clemson won its third straight game on Saturday over Coastal Carolina to move to 5-3 on the season. The offense has come to life over those three games as it has averaged 42.3 ppg after scoring more than 30 points only once in its first five games. The points have come but the offense is still pretty inconsistent as the Tigers have been outgained in half of their games on the season. The defense has been tough as nails as the Tigers are 12th in the nation in total defense but that is skewed quite a bit. Clemson allowed 170 yards against Costal Carolina last week and three games into the season, allowed 54 total yards to Boston College in a horrible weather environment. It has faced two other teams that are ranked in the top 20 in total offense, Georgia Tech and TCU, and the defense allowed 418 and 388 total yards respectively so while the overall numbers may look solid, it struggles against the top offenses in the land. The Seminoles are 15th in the country and first in the ACC in total offense as they are averaging 443.6 ypg and that is due to the strength of the passing game. Quarterback Christian Ponder is having a solid season, as he is 13th in the country in passing efficiency and third in total offense. He has been fabulous, throwing for 2,403 yards and 13 scores and while his numbers were nothing special on Saturday with 277 yards and one touchdown, his leadership, the ability to make key plays, and playing with a great deal of pain trumps everything else. The amazing thing is that despite the spectacular season, he did not make the Doak Walker cut list which is a list of 15 quarterbacks. Further complicating matters against the Seminoles and their high-powered passing attack is the fact the Tigers will be without perhaps their top pass rusher in sophomore defensive end Da’Quan Bowers. Right now, Florida St. is looking at a 6-6 season based on the schedule as it will also be an underdog on the road at Florida while being favored against Maryland and Wake Forest. That means there can be no mistakes and a win here will take a lot of pressure off. Florida St. has lost one game by 10 points this season while the other three losses have come by four, seven and five points so it realistically is a few points away from being in much better shape with a much better record. That makes this line even more intriguing as to why it is so high. Coming off that shootout for the Seminoles looks to help matters as they are 7-0 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points. Also, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog between 3.5 and 10 points and this is the first time in the last 19 meetings that Florida St. has actually been an underdog in this series. 3* Florida St. Seminoles
Tom Stryker
UTEP vs. Tulane
Play: UTEP -6.5
With a 2-14 SU and 3-12 ATS record in its last 16 games, Tulane has certainly been taking it on the chin lately The Green Wave haven’t had any success at home either notching a woeful 1-7 SU and 0-7 ATS mark in their last eight tries. Texas El Paso enters this CUSA affair off its stunning home loss to UAB and the Miners will be looking to take their frustrations out here.
Believe it or not, there is actually a strong late-season college system that favors UTEP on Saturday afternoon. Since 1980, game nine or 10 road favorites priced at -15 or less are an outstanding 105-54 ATS provided they carry a won/loss percentage between .125 and less than .500 and their opponent is a losing team. On Saturday, Texas El Paso and Utah State fit this system perfectly. (Colorado State would apply too if the Rams were favored at Hawaii.)
Defensively, the Miners have struggled. UTEP has allowed an average of 33.9 points and 470.1 total yards per game this season. That’s bad enough to rank the Miners 116th in the nation in total defense. That fact is noted. However, under the direction of redshirt freshman quarterback Ryan Griffin, Tulane’s offense has been stuck in neutral. The Green Wave has averaged only 13.4 points and 314 total yards per game this season. That’s a far cry from UTEP’s offensive averages of 26.0 points and 378 total yards per game.
Tulane has lost its last four games by the combined score of 160-32! Even though the Green Wave will move the football a little better against this soft Miners defense, Tulane won’t be able to match points with an El Paso offense that is led by quarterback Trevor Vittatoe and RB Donald Buckram. Take UTEP!
Bob Wingerter
Memphis vs. Tennessee U
Play: Memphis +25
Off of that near-miss vs. Alabama and the wire-to-wire win over South Carolina, the public can not help but get caught up in the new enthusiasm surrounding Lane Kiffin and a resurgent Tennessee program. But that means inflating the line at the wrong time here, and for the wrong reasons. First note that until a late turnover they were going to lose 12-3 at Alabama, with the offense struggling mightily, and that all three of those first half TD’s vs. South Carolina came after turnovers in Gamecock territory. There is not enough polish in the passing game to cover this pointspread category, even if they did bring the proper focus. But off of those showdowns, and with a major trip to Ole Miss on deck, it is hard for this opponent to generate any excitement for them. It is a much different story for the Tigers, who bring 39 in-state players on the roster, most of whom have been ignored by recruiters from Knoxville. They have a chance to make something out of a disappointing season by going hard here.
LT Profits
Ala Birmingham -6.5
The UAB Blazers are coming off of an outright road upset over UTEP on Halloween, and they appear to have a class edge here over a Florida Atlanta Owls team that has struggled outside of the Sun Belt Conference.
The Owls are 2-5 both straight up and against the spread, but both of their covers came in Sun Belt play and they are 0-3 ATS out of conference. Granted, losses at South Carolina and Nebraska are certainly forgivable, but their other non-conference loss was an outright home defeat to Wyoming as five-point favorites in a game where they allowed the offensively inept Cowboys to score 30 points.
FAU can obviously make any offense look good, and they are especially atrocious against the run, allowing a horrific 224.7 rushing yards per game on a generous 6.0 yards per carry. That makes for a nightmarish matchup here vs. a run-oriented UAB offense.
The Blazers are averaging 24.8 points per game, but they can easily surpass that here with this drop in class. Most importantly, their offense is averaging 230.0 rushing yards per game on 6.0 yards per carry vs. tougher competition than the Owls, and we just do not see how the FAU can stop them here.
Look for UAB to consistently gobble up huge chunks of yardage on the ground here en route to a safe double-digit victory.
Scott Spreitzer
Western Michigan at Michigan St.
Prediction: Western Michigan
The Spartans were terrible last week on defense and watched Minnesota QB Adam Weber throw for 416-yards on 19 of 31 passing with five TD passes. Weber accomplished this with his #1 receiver sidelined for the game. The Spartans were out-gained, 505-360 in total offense. If they thought the Gopher passing game was strong, wait until they get a load of WMU QB Tim Hiller. The 6'5, 228-lb. senior is connecting on 63% of his passes, averaging 279-yards per game with 17 TDs and only 8 picks. No less than six receivers have caught between 23 and 47 passes on the season. Those six are averaging between 8 and 13.6 yards per catch. And Hiller has thrown TD passes to eight different receivers. Michigan State HC Mike D'Antonio has already spoken about a "poor coaching job" on the defensive side of the ball. I don't believe it'll get any better for MSU tonight. The Spartan defense has allowed 29 points or more in four of their last eight games, and already have a loss this season against a MAC entry when CMU knocked them off in East Lansing. In fact, WMU actually played better against that common foe. The Broncos gained 426-yards in the loss, while CMU out-gained MSU by over 100-yards. D'Antonio went through a bit of a meltdown following the loss to Minnesota, cutting off players' access to the media. The bottom is that the team has under-performed all season. And if the coach is expecting a quick bounce-back, he's likely mistaken. Michigan State is on a 5-17 ATS slide off an upset loss against a Big-10 entry. The Spartans are truly struggling and this line, which opened up higher than it should have (in my opinion) continued to climb even higher during the week. MSU is currently laying 20 1/2 points. I was prepared to go against them at 17. I'll grab the value with Western Michigan on Saturday.
Marc Lawrence
Army at Air Force Nov
Prediction: Army
The Cadets will look to snap a three-games series streak when they invade Colorado Springs to take on the Air Force Saturday afternoon. Army is 17-7 ATS as a dog of more than 13 points with revenge off a SU and ATS loss, including 12-3 ATS against a winning opponent. With Army rested off a Bye Week and Air Force paying its 10th straight game without rest this season, we'll grab the points in the military war.
TEDDY COVERS
UTEP @ Tulane
PICK: UTEP -6.5
Sometimes, statistics lie. Tulane is statistically ranked as the single best passing defense in Conference USA, allowing only 209 passing yards per game. However, the reality is that Tulane might have the single worst passing defense in the conference. Based on a ‘true’ yards-per-pass attempt tally, the Green Wave rank 116th out of 120 FBS teams, allowing more than 8.2 yards per attempt.
The Green Wave overall numbers are totally skewed because they faced McNeese State, Army and Marshall, none of whom have anything resembling a high octane passing attack. In addition, every pass-first team that they’ve faced hasn’t had the need to pass in the second half – all six of Tulane’s losses this year have come by three touchdowns or more. Lastly, the Green Wave can’t stop the run either, bad news here against UTEP’s emerging backfield threat Donald Buckram.
Tulane has no home field advantage whatsoever. Playing in front of a nearly empty Superdome, the Green Wave have lost all four of their previous FBS games at home this season SU and ATS: 37-13, 54-3, 31-10 and 44-16. It was a similar story last year when Bob Toledo’s squad closed out the stretch with home losses to Army (44-13), Rice (42-17) and UAB 41-24. With an offense that has produced a grand total of 65 points in their seven lined games this year, led by ‘still developing’ frosh QB Ryan Griffin, Tulane doesn’t offer much ‘backdoor cover’ potential either.
UTEP does two things well. First, this offense scores points in bunches, a dynamic, multiple-big-play-weapon attack led by three year starter Trevor Vittatoe at quarterback. Secondly, the Miners seem to respond well to adversity, playing well off a loss. They’ve bounced back with a win and cover following each of their last three losses, and come into this came off a disappointing home loss to UAB.
Head coach Mike Price, following last week’s loss: “We’re going to continue to coach hard and play hard. I’m not throwing in the towel. We have good people and good coaches. We’ll do everything we can to beat the Tulane Green Wave.” And basically, when it comes to beating Tulane, effort is all UTEP should need, because the talent differential is most assuredly there already. 2* Take UTEP.
ALEX SMART
Rice @ SMU
PICK: SMU -17.5
On Saturday afternoon, the Rice Owls head to Dallas to tango with the bowl-hungry SMU Mustangs. HC June Jones has his Mustangs playing good football right now, while the Owls are just waiting for a disaster of a season to come to a close. This game could be another real beating.
In as brief of a statement as possible, Rice is just awful. The Owls rank 118th in points per game (14.9) and are dead last in the country in points allowed (45.5 per game). It should come as no surprise that they only have one cover one the season, and really haven't come close to sticking within the number in their L/3 games. Yes, Rice is coming off of a bye week, but after getting beaten down 49-7 at home by a Central Florida team with very little offensive firepower, is there really any hope going into SMU? Even though the Owls have taken on several run-happy teams this year (UCF, Navy, and Tulsa most notably), the team has an awful pass defense, averaging allowing 259.9 yards per game, the 108th best mark in the land. Texas Tech's Air Raid dropped 508 passing yards and eight passing scores on this defense. It's only a wonder what Jones can draw up for SMU this weekend.
Regardless whether or not QB Bo Levi Mitchell is ready to go on Saturday or not, it appears as though QB Kyle Padron is ready to take the reins under center for SMU. In the first start of his career, the freshman went 20/30 for 354 yards and two TDs against Tulsa in the Mustangs' shocking 27-14 victory over the Golden Hurricane. All of a sudden, another trip up by Houston could put SMU in the C-USA title game with four more victories, but regardless, it feels like this is a team destined to go bowling. In Year #2 of the June Jones era, the offense is starting to take shape, as his team is averaging 279.9 passing yards per game, good enough for 18th in the land. Those numbers should improve against a porous Rice 'D' on Saturday.
The market just hasn't been corrected yet in SMU games. There's a reason that the Mustangs are 5-2 ATS and are probably headed bowling. There isn't a bowl team in America that Rice can hang with at this point, and we're due to see one of those patented "June Jones smack downs" that we got so accustomed to seeing when he was throwing the ball all over the place at Hawaii. The home team is 11-2 ATS in the L/13 match-ups between these rivals. That's just icing on a cake that already looks delicious. Book it!!!
LARRY NESS
Navy @ Notre Dame
PICK: Navy +12.5
I'm a big fan of Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen, as I've had him atop my last two Heisman Watch polls, although everyone knows that Tim Tebow has already been awarded the 2009 Heisman. Notre Dame had beaten Navy 43 consecutive times before the 2007 Midshipmen were able to win 46-44 at South Bend in three OTs (Clausen's freshman year, although he did not play in the game). Notre Dame bounced back last year with a 27-21 win over Navy in Baltimore and that final score is deceiving. The Irish led 27-7 very late in the 4th quarter with Navy tacking on two TDs in the final two minutes and getting stopped on downs at the Notre Dame 31 after recovering a second straight onsides kick. Clausen completed 15-of-18 passes in that game, although he was hardly a factor with just 110 yards passing, as two of his three incompletions were intercepted. This Saturday's game should be very interesting. The Irish are 22nd in the latest BCS standings and with nine wins (they are 6-2 with four games left) and a BCS ranking of at least 14, become eligible for an at-large BCS bid (watch out Boise and TCU!). Let's note that Notre Dame opened with a 35-0 home win over Nevada but have gone 0-6 ATS when favored since that game, as the team takes a 2-6 ATS record into this game (only other ATS win in '09 was covering in the team's home loss to USC). Clausen is having a superb season (66.9% / 289.8 YPG through the air / 18-2 ratio) plus receiver Michael Floyd has recovered from his broken collarbone and should play this week. Floyd had 13 catches for 358 yards (27.5 YPC) and five TDs before getting hurt early in the third game of the season, against Michigan State. His return gives the Irish arguably the best one-two punch at wideout in the country, with Golden Tate owning 56 catches (16.6 YPC) and nine TDs. However, Navy knows how to play as an underdog. Just ask Ohio State, which was lucky to escape with a 31-27 win in Columbus back on September vs the Midshipmen. Paul Johnson took over at Annapolis in 2002 and after a 2-10 first season, led Navy to five straight bowl appearances. Niumatalolo continued that tradition last year and since the 2003 season (that's six-plus years), Navy is a remarkable 17-4 as road underdogs (81 percent ATS!). QB Ricky Dobbs is healthy enough to start and that's HUGE, as he's the second-leading rusher for a team which averages 279.8 YPG on the ground (4.6 YPC) while scoring 30 TDs (Dobbs has 16 of those TDs). Navy's covered its last NINE visits to South Bend and makes it an even 10, this Saturday. Take the points.
DAVID MALINSKY
Connecticut @ Cincinnati
PICK: Cincinnati -16.5
We expect to see one of the more frenzied atmospheres of the entire college season at Nippert Stadium on Saturday night, with a Cincinnati team in a legitimate quest for the BCS Championship game getting a most rare Prime Time outing on ABC to use as a showcase. And against a fragile opponent, we can call for a knockout to be delivered.
No offense in the nation has executed better than the Bearcats this season. They are 8th in Total Offense, 5th in Scoring, and #1 in Pass Efficiency, and if anything have been even better without Tony Pike at QB. Although Pike was putting up Heisman contender numbers before being injured, since then Zach Collaros has been simply off the charts – how about 74.6 percent completions in his 63 attempts, nine TD’s vs. only one INT, and 213 rushing yards, including two more scores? His 218.4 passer rating would lead the nation by a wide margin (Kellen Moore of Boise would be a distant second at 171.0), but he is 31 attempts short of qualifying. And it is easy to keep piling up those numbers because there are weapons galore – led by Mardy Gilyard there are seven different receivers that have caught at least 10 passes; nine that have at least one TD reception; and the one-two RB combo of Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey are averaging a crisp 6.2 per rush over 127 attempts. And bringing both top-notch talent and great designs make it that wonderful combination of High Yield/Low Risk, with only five turnovers in 511 snaps.
It is not just all offense, however. Brian Kelly’s defenders are #9 in the nation in Scoring, rating #1 in Tackles for Loss and #2 in Sacks, and the special teams rate #7 in Punt Returns and #10 in Kickoff Returns. It is a special package all the way around, and we believe that in this setting we get the maximum out of that package.
That is bad news for an emotionally weary Connecticut team that has gone through one of the most draining cycles we have ever charted in recent weeks. The tragic loss of Jasper Howard was not just a devastating blow when it happened, but it compounds matters with several awkward practice weeks in a row, and then crushing late-game losses to West Virginia and Rutgers. To make matters worse the Huskies then lost QB Cody Endres last week, and even though that takes them back to original starter Zach Frazer, there has been a major performance gap between the two. Endres had a far superior passer rating at 145.2 to 96.0, with Frazer completing only 48.3 percent of his attempts, with more than twice as many INT’s (7) as TD passes (3).
The Huskies had a chance to post dramatic wins vs. West Virginia and Rutgers that would have been a tribute to Howard, but they got away. That leaves them worn down without that adrenaline of recent weeks, creating an early “snap factor” against the punches that will be thrown at them, and with an inability to throw from behind to challenge the back door this one gets ugly.