LEE KOSTROSKI
Oregon @ Stanford
PICK: Stanford +7.5
Stanford is in a prime spot to pull the upset here. They are off a bye and face an Oregon team coming off their biggest win in years beating USC last Saturday. That win by the Ducks gives them a very nice cushion in the race for the Rose Bowl as they are 5-0. Every other team, except Arizona, has at least 2 losses. Many were calling last week's game a battle for the conference title and you know the players were looking at it as such. They Quacks played their best game of the season and ran all over USC. Now we can look for the players to be told all week how great they are and start to believe it. No chance that Oregon can be fully focused on their game @ Stanford this Saturday. That's a dangerous recipe when going on the road, vs. a solid opponent off a bye week.
The Cardinal are 4-0 at home and beating teams by an average score of 33-15. Included in those are two impressive wins vs. solid Pac 10 teams Washington and Arizona State. Stanford whipped Washington 34-14 and ASU 33-14. This is a very solid team with a good rushing attack. RB Toby Gerhart is a battering ram that has already put up 980 yards rushing and 13 TD's. He is averaging 5 YPC. Their QB Andrew Luck has been very efficient when needed throwing for over 1800 yards, 9 TD's and just 3 interceptions. This team can score points which makes them tough as an underdog. They have scored less than 24 points only once all season and they are averaging 32 PPG. Their defense has held opponents to 17 points or less in half their games this year. While we don't expect them to do that vs. Oregon, we do think they will do enough to allow their offense to keep this close throughout.
We spoke of Oregon's letdown potential here, however we have to add another twist to that scenario. Since getting beat at Boise to open the season, this team has played only two road games (this will however be their third road game in four outings). Those two games came @ UCLA and @ Washington. They beat a struggling UCLA team only 24-10. However, 14 of those 24 points came on a 100 yard kickoff return and a 32-yard interception return. They out gained a pathetic Bruin offense by just 92 yards. They also beat a tired Washington team that had been all over the country leading up to that with games @ Stanford, @ Notre Dame, home vs. Arizona and @ Arizona State leading up to that one. OU won handily however only out yarded the Huskies by 21 yards. Turnovers played a key role in that one.
Oregon squeaked by Stanford at home last year. The Ducks were trailing late and the Ducks punched in a TD with only 6 seconds remaining (+ 2 point coversion) to get the 35-28 win. The Cardinal will have that on their "rested" minds this Saturday. Stanford was a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home dog last year winning two of those game SU. Saturday they get a distracted Oregon team this week and we'll call for the upset.
Carlo Campanella
Wisconsin at Indiana
Play: Wisconsin
Wisconsin (6-2) returned from their Bye week last Saturday with a solid 37-0 win over Purdue. Wisconsin's 2 losses this season came at the hands of Ohio State and Iowa, who are both ranked in the Top 25 and combined for a current 16-2 record this year! Against the weaker Big 10 opponents, Wisconsin is a perect 3-0 SU & ATS and won those games by a score of 106-58 (victories over Michigan State, Purdue & Minnesota). We'll see more of the same this Saturday at Indiana, as the Hoosiers are 1-5 SU against Big 10 foes this season. Lay the points with this road Favorite as Indiana's defense is allowing 28.2 points per game and lost their last 2 games even with the aid of 9 Turnovers the past 2 weeks!
7* Play On Wisconsin
CAJUN SPORTS
Northwestern vs. Iowa
Play: Northwestern+16½
Northwestern will make their annual pilgrimage to Iowa City to the face the host Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday afternoon. Iowa is riding high in the national spotlight ranked higher than any time in their history while the Cats are 5-4 SU on the year and hoping to make themselves bowl eligible.
This is a revenge game for Iowa they were upset 22 to 17 as an eight-point favorite last season by this Wildcats team. The Hawkeyes certainly want to defeat the Cats and avenge last seasons’ upset loss but they may get caught looking ahead as they have the biggest game of the year and possibly in the career of HC Ferentz on deck at the “Shoe” versus Ohio State next week.
These are college kids and all the national press the Hawkeyes have been receiving for their Top 5 ranking may have them believing they don’t have to fear this Cats team. It’s hard not to listen when the sports media tells you how great you are and if this leads to complacency in the Hawkeyes players they may well wake up on Sunday with another game to avenge in 2010.
The visitor has 3 straight upsets in this series as Iowa has dropped back-to-back home games to Northwestern as an 8 pt favorite last year and a 20 pt favorite back in 2006. The underdog is 9-2 against the spread and has four straight upset victories. Iowa is 1-5 ATS as double-digit conference favorites, 0-4 ATS in conference home games when coming off a home affair in their last outing and 1-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back conference home games. The Cats are a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road and 3-1 ATS the last four in this series.
Last week versus Indiana the Hawkeyes were down 21 to 7 at the half and got a little home cooking from the zebra’s to help pull out a 42 to 24 win. The zebra’s called back a Hoosier’s touchdown that was certainly a questionable call and Indiana also missed a 28 yard field goal which either of those scores could have possibly helped make a different outcome in last week’s game.
We will back the Cats here as this line is inflated and we believe the Iowa players may have begun to believe their own press and could very well be looking ahead to their matchup with the other “Eyes” next week. Take the double-digits in Iowa City on Saturday.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Northwestern Wildcats 22 Iowa Hawkeyes 28
Steve Zukiel
Utah State vs 392 Hawaii
Play: Utah State -2
Quick trivia question for you. Which college football team has been one of the hottest in the country over the last 1 1/2 seasons?? Would you believe Utah State? This football team is on an incredible 10-1-1 mark over their last 12 football games. They have a great quarterback running the show and Mr. Borel scares the hell out of everybody because he can do it all. Not only has he tossed 11 TD's compared to a mere 1 INT this season, he can also kill you with his legs, as he did against Fresno, amassing 105 yards along the ground.Hawaii has nothing left in the tank and it almost seems like they are down to the ball boy when it pertains to the quarterback position.I know the Aggie won/loss record doesn't warrant them being a favorite,especially on a distracting trip to the Islands. Despite this, I think the right team is favored and I like them here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Michigan -6
Going with one of my healthy systems for our free play today. Plays on a home team (Michigan) off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of 6 points or more, with a winning record on the season, are 24-4 ATS the last 10 seasons. Purdue has struggled on the road all year (0-3) and I expect Michigan to bounce back here after an ugly loss last week. We'll lay the points for 1 Unit.
Mitch Wilson
Navy vs. Notre Dame
Play: Navy +12½
It's a traditional match up as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the Navy Midshipmen in South Bend.
Notre Dame returns home after a a neutral site game against and over matched Washington State team in San Antonio and they are still on track to be eligible for a BCS Bowl game and QB Jimmy Clausen is looking like a Heisman Trophy candidate. Much of the talk before the season was about how soft ND's schedule appeared, it isn't actually so soft down the stretch to think that any of the games are a given. Notre Dame has been in a lot of close contests and though it helps to build a team's confidence that they are never out of it, it also gives underdogs a sense of belief that the Irish are very beatable. Clausen seems to always find the ever reliable Golden Tate who has some of the best hands in the nation, and he finds him when it matters most. Defensively the Irish really struggle at times especially against the pass. Overall Notre Dame is 103rd in yards allowed, something they will need to improve on if they hope to sweep these last four games of the regular season.
Navy had been on a roll headed into last weeks game against an improving Temple team but didn't have enough to beat the Owls in an upset loss. It was Navy's absolute inability to pass that was their undoing and the defense surrendering just three too many points in the loss. We often hear mostly about Navy's option offense but it's really been the defense who has lead the Middies this year. Navy is 14th in the country in yards allowed and 20th against the pass. They will need all of it on both sides of the ball to hang with the powerful Notre Dame offense.
Notre Dame is 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and 1-6 against the spread in theor last seven overall. Navy is 5-2 against the spread following their last seven non-covers. The road team has covered 13 of the last 14 in this series and Navy has covered seven straight at South Bend.
This just looks like a case of way too many points in a game that could be fairly even when all is said and done. This might even be worth a small play on the money line.
Dennis Macklin
Ohio State vs. Penn St.
Play: Under 40
Take Ohio State and Penn State under 41: Huge game for both teams that are waiting to see if Iowa stubs it's toe. Two Stone Wall defenses with OSU 6th at just 260 ypg while the Nittany Lions check in at 5th at an even more stingy 254 yard per. Both teams nearly mirror images statiscally with the Bucks allowing just 86.4 ypg on the ground while PSU allows just 84.1 ypg overland. Neither QB has produced in this type big game spot, Pryor and Clark both go invisible when facing same kind. In game that may come down to the kicking game, Buckeyes are without Sr K Aaron Pettry (13-19, 28-29, blown out knee) and will go with first-time starter. First to 17 wins, play the Under.
Black Widow
1* on BYU -13
Wyoming simply doesn't have the offense to keep up with BYU Saturday. The Cowboys are averaging just 18.2 points/game and 313 total yards/game this season. Compare that to BYU who is putting up 34.6 points/game and 448 total yards/game, and you can see what we are talking about. Better yet, BYU is 4-0 on the road this season while scoring 41.2 points/game and allowing 16.2 points/contest. That means the Cougars are outscoring opponents by 25.0 points/game on the road. They have put up an average of 502 yards/game on the road while allowing just 276 yards/game. Wyoming gives up 25.7 points/game at home and 410 total yards/game. This thing should be over by the end of the 3rd quarter as BYU just rolls. They have had a bye week to steam over their loss to TCU back on October 24th, which will have Cougars' players hungry to hit the field and make amends having not played in 2 weeks. BYU is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Wyoming, winning each game by double-digits. Take BYU and lay the points.
EZWINNERS
Duke Blue Devils @ North Carolina Tar Heels
Play: Duke Blue Devils +10
The Blue Devils are playing with confidence and have won three consecutive ACC games for the 1st time since 1994. This is a potential flat spot for Carolina as the Tar Heels are coming off of a big win against Virginia Tech and have a game with Miami next week. UNC is only 1-5-1 against the spread as a conference favorite of 3 points or more and Duke head coach David Cutcliffe is 17-4 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record on the road. UNC has the advantage on defense, but the Duke offense with star quarterback Thaddeus Lewis will keep this one within the number. Take the points.
Sportsinsights
Texas A&M vs. Colorado
Texas A&M notched its second straight victory last week, taking care of Iowa State 35-10 in College Station. Colorado got manhandled in the trenches by Missouri, gaining a grand total of -14 yards on the ground in a 36-17 loss to the Tigers.
The Aggies opened as a 4.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and have dropped to -3, despite receiving 80% of spread bets. This reverse-line movement has triggered multiple Smart Money Plays on Colorado, including one each at Matchbook (+12.93 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+8.26 units). We like taking underdogs at home, especially when the Smart Money agrees.
Colorado +3
Ohio State vs. Penn State
Ohio State is coming off its most lopsided victory of the season, a 45-0 pounding of New Mexico State. The Buckeyes dominated every aspect of that game, out gaining the Aggies 559-62 in total yards. After suffering its only loss of the season six weeks ago against Iowa, Penn State has gone 5-0, outscoring opponents 176-43.
Penn State opened as a 3.5-point home favorite at CRIS and the Nittany Lions are currently garnering 59% of spread bets. The betting percentages were relatively even earlier in the week, but in the last 24 hours Penn State has become the clear-cut public favorite, pushing the line up to -5 across the board. A Steam Play on Ohio State was triggered at 5dimes (+22.8 units), so we'll follow the steam, go against the public and take the Buckeyes and the points.
Ohio State +5
Houston vs. Tulsa
Houston and Heisman Trophy candidate Case Keenum roll into Tulsa Saturday with the number one-ranked offense in the FBS, averaging a ridiculous 563.3 yards/game. Keenum went off last week, throwing for 559 yards and five touchdowns, capped off by a 28-yard toss to Patrick Edwards with 21 seconds remaining in the game to give the Cougars a seven-point victory over Southern Miss. Tulsa jumped out to a 4-1 start this season, but have dropped their last three games, including last week's 27-13 loss against SMU.
Houston opened as a 3-point favorite at Pinnacle and are an enormous public favorite, receiving 91% of spread bets, 78% of moneyline bets and 98% of parlay bets. Sharp money has hammered this game, shrinking the line to -1, despite the betting percentages. This reverse-line movement has triggered four positive Smart Money Plays on Tulsa, including moves at Matchbook (+12.93 units), CRIS (+11.23 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+8.26 units), which happen to be SportsInsights' top three NCAA football Smart Money sportsbooks this season. Tulsa is getting 1.5 points at most sportsbooks, but bodog is still offering a full 2, which we'll gladly grab.
Tulsa +2
SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
UConn (4-4, 6-1 ATS) at (4) Cincinnati (8-0, 5-2 ATS)
Cincinnati star quarterback Tony Pike is expected to return and at least see limited action as the undefeated Bearcats try to keep their BCS Championship hopes alive with a victory over UConn in a Big East battle from Nippert Stadium.
The Huskies are coming off consecutive heartbreaking losses to West Virginia and Rutgers by identical 28-24 scores. In last week’s contest, UConn outgained Rutgers 481-322 and scored the go-ahead touchdown with 38 seconds left, but after the ensuing kickoff, the Huskies allowed an 81-yard catch-and-run for the game-winning touchdown, failing to cover as a 7½-point home favorite to end a 7-0 ATS run.
Pike reinjured his forearm three weeks ago in a 34-17 road rout of South Florida, but Cincinnati didn’t miss a beat in his absence, rolling past Louisville (41-10 as a 16-point home favorite) and Syracuse (28-7 as a 15½-point road chalk). The Bearcats, who have cashed in three straight games, have been dominating teams all season, winning every game by eight points or more including six wins by at least 17 points.
Cincinnati is averaging 39.1 points and 454 yards per game overall and allowing 12.9 points and 314.2 yards per game. The Bearcats have been even more dominant in their three home wins, putting up per-game averages of 46.3 points and 467.7 yards while yielding 11 ppg and 300.7 ypg. No team has scored more than 20 points against Cincinnati this season.
The Bearcats took a four-game winning streak and 5-1 record to UConn last season and got destroyed 40-16 as a three-point road favorite, losing to the Huskies for the first time in five meetings this decade. Cincinnati managed just 289 total yards and committed six turnovers with Pike returning from an injury and struggling through a 10-for-27, 136-yard, one-TD, one-INT afternoon. Since that defeat, the Bearcats have won 14 consecutive regular-season games (9-4 ATS in lined games).
These teams have alternated spread-covers in their five clashes this decade, with the ‘dog going 4-1 ATS and the home team cashing in each of the last four meetings.
In addition to covering in seven of their last eight lined games going back to last year’s bowl victory, the Huskies are on pointspread upticks of 4-0 on the road, 4-0 as an underdog, 5-1 against winning teams, 12-4 after a SU defeat and 10-2 after an ATS setback. Cincinnati is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 13-5 at home, 8-4 as a home favorite, 4-0 in Big East play and 6-1-1 in November.
The over is 4-1 in UConn’s last five overall and 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last five in November. However, the Bearcats carry “under” streaks of 5-0 overall (all as a favorite) and 4-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Navy (6-3, 5-4 ATS) at (19) Notre Dame (6-2, 2-6 ATS)
The Midshipmen try to bounce back from their first loss in six weeks when they travel to South Bend, Ind., for their annual clash with Notre Dame, which is seeking its third straight win.
Navy took a five-game winning streak in last week’s home game against Temple, but gave up the game-winning touchdown on a 41-yard run with 2:41 to play to fall 27-24 as a seven-point home favorite. The Middies’ last three games and four of the past five have been decided by a field goal, including two overtime contests. Since starting the season with consecutive spread-covers, Navy is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven.
Notre Dame’s six-game stretch of nail-biters finally ended with last week’s 40-14 rout of Washington State in a neutral-site contest in San Antonio. The Irish dominated the stats, finishing with a 592-206 edge in total offense (337-104 passing) and a two-to-one advantage in time of possession, but failed to cover as a 28-point favorite as Washington State scored a TD with a little more than five minutes remaining to get the backdoor cover. That dropped Notre Dame to 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
Prior to last week, the Irish had played in six straight games decided by seven points or less, including one overtime contest and four games decided by four points or less.
Notre Dame held off the Middies 27-21 as a four-point road favorite last year, avenging a 46-44 triple-overtime loss as a three-point chalk in South Bend in 2007. That victory in 2007 ended Navy’s NCAA-record 43-game losing skid to the Irish. The teams have split the cash in the last six series meetings, alternating spread-covers every year, but going back several seasons, the Middies are on a 13-6 ATS run. Finally, the visitor is on a 13-1 ATS roll in this annual matchup (6-0 last six), with Navy cashing in nine consecutive trips to South Bend.
The Midshipmen are on ATS runs of 55-24 on the road, 27-12 as a road ‘dog, 8-2 as a pup of more than 10 points and 4-1 after a SU defeat. Notre Dame’s list of negative ATS trends includes 1-6 overall, 0-6 as a favorite, 1-4 at home, 5-17 as a home favorite and 1-4 in November. Also, the underdog has cashed in each of the Irish’s last seven games.
The over is 4-1 in Navy’s last five overall, 9-4 in its last 13 as a road underdog, 7-3-1 in Notre Dame’s last 11 at home and 8-2-1 in Notre Dame’s last 11 when giving more than 10 points. Finally, three of the last four series meetings overall and three straight at Notre Dame have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NAVY and OVER
(9) LSU (7-1, 4-4 ATS) at (3) Alabama (8-0, 5-3 ATS)
The only matchup of the day involving Top 10 teams comes from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, where the Crimson Tide come off their bye and look to lock up the SEC West title with a victory over hated LSU.
The Tigers prepped for this contest with a pair of blowout home wins: a 31-10 rout over Auburn as a 7½-point favorite on Oct. 24 followed by last Saturday’s 42-0 whitewash of Tulane as a 36½-pint chalk. LSU outgained those two opponents by a combined 422 yards, and going back to a 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year’s Eve, the Tigers are 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS). The only loss came on Oct. 10 to top-ranked Florida, a 13-3 setback as a 9½-point home underdog. Over its last four games, LSU has surrendered a total of 36 points.
Alabama survived a huge scare two weeks ago against SEC rival Tennessee, with the Tide blocking two fourth-quarter field-goal attempts (including one on the final play of the game) to escape 12-10, their 20th consecutive regular-season win. However, Alabama failed to deliver as a 14-point home favorite in the narrow victory, its second straight non-cover after a 4-0 ATS roll. Still, the Tide have held their last seven opponents to 20 points or less, with five of the last six scoring 10 or less.
On their way to a perfect regular season last year, the Crimson Tide needed overtime to get past LSU, winning 27-21 as a three-point road favorite. That snapped Alabama’s five-game losing skid (1-3-1 ATS) in this rivalry. With last year’s result, the visitor is now 10-1-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six and LSU is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six visits to Tuscaloosa, winning the last four outright.
Alabama’s offense has been stuck in the mud the last three games, producing just 18 points and 322 total yards per game after scoring 34 or more in each of their first five contests and averaging 462.8 total ypg. Junior QB Greg McElroy has no TDs, two INTs and just 359 passing yards in the past three games after throwing for 1,086 yards with nine TDs and one pick in his first five contests. On the bright side, Nick Saban’s defense continues to shine, yielding only 11.4 points, 240.9 total yards, 64.9 rushing yards per game and 2.2 yards per rush attempt, figures that rank fifth, third, second and second in the nation.
Like Alabama, LSU’s strength is its defense, giving up just 12.1 ppg (7th) and 293 total ypg (15th). Offensively, the Tigers net 26.4 points and 325.4 total yards per game, with QB Jordan Jefferson completing 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,415 yards with 11 TDs and just four INTs.
LSU has covered in consecutive games for the first time since November 2007, a stretch of 24 lined contests. Les Miles’ squad hasn’t cashed in three straight games since beginning that 2007 season 3-0 ATS. Since that time, the Tigers are 8-20-1 ATS in lined regular-season games, 4-7 ATS on the road and 6-15-1 ATS against SEC competition. Additionally, LSU is in ATS ruts of 0-7 in November, 3-8 after a SU win and 2-5 as an underdog, but it is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
Alabama is in pointspread funks of 1-4 after a bye, 10-22-1 as a home favorite and 5-11 after a non-cover, but the Crimson Tide are also on ATS runs of 4-0 in November, 10-4 as a favorite, 7-3 in SEC play and 5-1 when laying between 3½ and 10 points.
The over is 11-4 in LSU’s last 15 roadies and 8-2 in its last 10 in November, but otherwise the Tigers carry “under” trends of 4-0 overall, 4-1 in league play, 13-5 as an underdog and 20-7-1 as a road pup. Similarly, Alabama is on “under” rolls of 4-1 overall, 7-1 in SEC play, 6-1 in November and 5-2 after a bye. However, the last three meetings between these rivals have gone over the total following a 4-0 “under” run in the series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Kansas (5-3, 2-5 ATS) at Kansas State (5-4, 4-3 ATS)
Kansas State looks to remain alone atop the Big 12 North standings when it hosts archrival Kansas, which heads to Bill Snyder Stadium looking to snap a three-game losing skid.
The Jayhawks ended last year with consecutive wins and covers, then opened up 2009 with five straight victories (2-2 ATS in lined action), but they’ve since hit the skids, dropping three in a row both SU and ATS. After falling 34-30 at Colorado as an eight-point favorite, Kansas got thumped by Oklahoma (35-13 as an eight-point home pup) and Texas Tech (42-21 as a 6½-point road ‘dog). The Jayhawks, who scored between 34 and 49 points during their seven-game winning streak (37.9 ppg), have averaged just 21.3 points and 328.7 total ypg during their three-game slide.
The Wildcats’ modest two-game winning streak came to a halt with last week’s 42-30 loss at Oklahoma, but they did battle back from a 28-6 second-quarter deficit to cover easily as a 28-point road underdog. Kansas State, which got outgained 458-364 at Oklahoma, has now cashed in three straight games and is 4-1 ATS in its last five lined outings, all in Big 12 action. That spread-covering streak comes on the heels of a 3-9 ATS funk.
Kansas State sits atop the Big 12 North standings at 3-2 (4-1 ATS), a half-game ahead of Nebraska, while the Jayhawks are in a three-way tie for last at 1-3 (0-4 ATS).
Kansas blasted the Wildcats 52-21 as a 7½-point home favorite last year, its third straight win and cover in this rivalry. The Jayhawks are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five years against K-State after losing the previous 11 meetings (1-10 ATS). The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 15 years, and the favorite is on a 12-2 ATS roll. Also, the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Manhattan, Kan.
The Jayhawks have now dropped five straight ATS decisions, but it is still on pointspread surges of 12-5 on the road, 19-7 as a favorite, 5-2 as a road chalk, 5-1 when laying a field goal or less and 11-5 in November. Meanwhile, although K-State has cashed in four of five overall and is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven when catching three points or less, it remains in ATS slumps of 4-9 against winning teams, 1-4 as a home pup and 1-8 in November.
Kansas is on “over” stretches of 10-4 overall, 6-2 on the road, 11-3 in November, 7-3 in Big 12 play and 4-0 as a favorite. Likewise, the Wildcats are on “over” runs of 43-20 overall, 19-7 in conference, 22-8 as an underdog, 6-0 as a home pup, 20-6 in November, 23-8 on artificial turf and 27-7 after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(20) Oklahoma (5-3, 2-4 ATS) at Nebraska (5-3 SU and ATS)
The Sooners and Cornhuskers renew their storied rivalry, with Oklahoma making the trek to Memorial Stadium for a Big 12 cross-divisional battle.
Oklahoma followed up a difficult 16-13 loss to Texas as a three-point underdog by sweeping the Kansas schools the last two weeks, first routing Kansas (35-13 as an eight-point favorite) then pounding Kansas State last Saturday (42-30 as a 28-point home favorite). All five of the Sooners’ wins this year have been double-digit routs, while the three losses came by a total of five points. In fact, Oklahoma’s last 23 victories and 28 of the last 29 have come by double digits.
Nebraska halted a two-game slide with last Saturday’s 20-10 victory at Baylor, though the Huskers – after jumping out 20-0 at halftime – failed to score in the second half and thus didn’t cover as a 13½-point road favorite. It was Nebraska’s third straight non-cover after starting the year with five straight ATS wins. Take away three blowout wins over Sun Belt Conference opponents in which they scored 49, 38 and 55 points, and the Cornhuskers have averaged just 21.2 ppg, scoring 20 or less four times.
Oklahoma has won four straight meetings against Nebraska since 2001, cashing in each of the last three. Last year, the Sooners rolled 62-28 as a 21-point home favorite. The Cornhuskers’ only spread-cover in the last four meetings came in 2004, when they kicked a meaningless 39-yard field goal as time expired in a 30-3 loss as a 29-point road underdog. The favorite has gotten the money in four of the last five meetings and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven.
With last week’s non-cover against Kansas State, the Sooners are now just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five overall, but they remain on pointspread surges of 7-2-1 in conference play, 7-1-1 on the road, 7-1 as a road chalk and 5-0 in November. Nebraska has dropped four of five Big 12 games against the number and five of six conference home games ATS, but otherwise it is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a SU victory, 5-2 ATS in its last seven against winning teams and 18-3-1 ATS the last 22 times it has hosted a team with a winning road record.
For Oklahoma, the over is on runs of 10-3 in conference and 4-0 in November, while Nebraska has topped the total in 23 of 30 in November and five of seven as a home pup. Conversely, the under is on stretches of 7-1 for Oklahoma overall, 4-0 for Nebraska overall (all in the Big 12) and 4-1 for Nebraska at home. Finally, although last year’s 62-28 shootout flew over the total, the under is still 4-2 in the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and UNDER
(15) Ohio State (7-2 SU and ATS) at (11) Penn State (8-1, 4-4 ATS)
The marquee game in the Big Ten this week comes from Beaver Stadium in Happy Valley, where Ohio State hopes to extend the visitor’s winning streak to three in a row in this rivalry, while the Nittany Lions try to keep their conference title hopes alive.
The Buckeyes stepped out of conference last week and destroyed overmatched New Mexico State 45-0, barely covering as a 44-point home favorite. After dropping a stunning 26-18 decision at Purdue as a 12-point favorite in its most recent road game, Ohio State has won its last two by a combined score of 83-7. Also, the Buckeyes are 6-1 in their last seven games, with the defense pitching three shutouts while yielding a total of 34 points in the other three wins. Additionally, Ohio State has scored 30 or more in all seven victories but was held to 15 and 18 points in its two defeats.
Penn State has ripped off five consecutive blowout wins (4-0 ATS in lined action) since getting clipped 21-10 at home by Iowa on Sept. 26. Last week at Northwestern, the Nittany Lions busted open a 13-13 tie by scoring the final 21 points to win 34-13 and cash as 17-point road favorite. Take out the loss to Iowa – in which the Hawkeyes scored nine of their 21 points on a blocked punt and a safety – and Penn State has won its other eight games by a combined score of 266-63, yielding seven points or fewer in five of the eight games. Joe Paterno’s defense has given up more than 18 points just once in its last 21 victories since November 2007, allowing 10 or less 13 times during this span.
Penn State avenged a 37-17 home loss to the Buckeyes as a three-point home underdog in 2007 with last year’s 13-6 victory in Columbus as a 1½-point road chalk in a game that decided the Big Ten champion. Previously, the host had covered nine in a row in this rivalry, and the favorite is now 4-1 ATS in the last five (3-0 ATS last three). Ohio State is still 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings (4-3 ATS), but just 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Happy Valley. Finally, the SU winner has cashed in 10 of the last 11 head-to-head battles.
These teams field two of the best defenses in the country. Penn State leads the nation in scoring defense (9.3 ppg) while Ohio State is sixth (11.7 ppg); Penn State is fifth in total defense (254.8 ypg) while Ohio State is sixth (260 ypg); and Penn State is fifth in rushing defense (84.1 ypg) while Ohio State is sixth (86.4 ypg). Altogether, the two teams have allowed 19 offensive touchdowns through a combined 18 games. At the same time, Penn State has forced 18 turnovers and Ohio State has 24 giveaways.
The Buckeyes are on ATS upswings of 36-17 overall, 20-7 on the road, 26-9 in Big Ten action, 21-5 when playing on grass, 4-0 in November and 6-0 against winning teams. The Nittany Lions have cashed in four straight games overall (all as a favorite, all in conference), but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven November outings, 1-4 ATS in their last five as a home chalk and 2-7 ATS when laying between 3½ and 10 points at Beaver Stadium.
Not surprisingly considering both teams’ strength is on defense, both carry a slew of low-scoring trends. For Ohio State, the under is on runs of 6-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road, 6-0-1 after a SU win and 4-0 as a ‘dog, The under is also 5-0 in Penn State’s last five overall and 6-2 in its last eight as a favorite. Lastly, four of the last five in this series have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Oregon State (5-3, 3-4 ATS) at (23) California (6-2, 3-4 ATS)
The Beavers try for their third straight series win over California when they head south to Berkeley for a Pac-10 clash at Memorial Stadium.
Oregon State bounced back from a difficult loss at USC with a 26-19 victory over UCLA last week, but came up short as a 10-point home favorite, ending a 3-0 ATS run. The Beavers, who have won three of their last four, are rolling offensively, piling up 32, 28, 38, 36 and 26 points over the last five games. On the downside, the defense has surrendered 28.5 ppg over the past six contests.
The Bears ran their winning streak to three in a row and climbed back into the Top 25 with last Saturday’s 23-21 win at Arizona State, with kicker Giorgio Tavecchio hitting the game-winning 24-yard field goal with 21 seconds left. Cal jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead, but managed just three field goals from there. The Bears are averaging 44 ppg in their six wins while getting just a single field goal in their two losses to Oregon (42-3) and USC (30-3).
Oregon State dominated Cal in a 34-21 home win last year as a 3½-point chalk, finishing with a 339-232 edge in total offense (194-85 on the ground). In their last trip to Berkeley in 2007, the Beavers shocked then-No. 3 Cal 31-28 as a 14-point underdog, making them 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three trips to Memorial Stadium. Oregon State is now 8-2 (6-4 ATS) since 1999 in this rivalry, with the SU winner cashing in each of the last seven. Also, prior to last year, the visitor had been on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in this series.
The Beavers are on ATS tears of 12-5 overall, 15-5 in Pac-10 play, 10-3 on the road, 5-0 in Pac-10 roadies, 6-1 as an underdog, 4-0 as a road pup, 13-4 on artificial turf, 11-3 after a SU win and 5-1 in November. Cal counters its current 1-4 ATS slump (all in Pac-10 play) with pointspread upticks of 9-3 at home, 12-6 as a favorite, 9-2 as a home chalk, 5-1 as a home favorite in Pac-10 games, 17-5 when laying between 3½ and 10 points and 9-4 on turf.
The under is 5-1 in Oregon State’s last six road games and 6-0 in its last six when catching between 3½ and 10 points, and 10 of Cal’s last 14 November contests have stayed low. However, the Bears are also on “over” streaks of 4-2 at home, 4-2 as a favorite and 18-7 as a home favorite. Also, the last two series meetings topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE
(7) Oregon (7-1, 6-2 ATS) at Stanford (5-3 SU and ATS)
The red-hot Ducks go for their eighth consecutive win when they hit the road for the third time in four weeks for a Pac-10 showdown against improving Stanford.
Oregon totally embarrassed then-No. 4 USC a week ago, cruising to a 47-20 victory as a three-point home underdog, the team’s seventh straight win and sixth consecutive spread-cover. It was a total domination by the Ducks, who piled up 613 yards, including 391 rushing, while holding USC to 327 total yards (140 rushing). QB Jeremiah Masoli stole the show, going 19-for-31 for 222 passing yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 164 yards on 13 carries (12.6 yards per rush) and another score. Oregon punted just once all night, and that was in the fourth quarter.
Stanford was idle last week following a 33-14 beat-down of Arizona State as a seven-point home favorite on Oct. 24. The Cardinal had a 473-290 advantage in total offense in the victory, which came on the heels of back-to-back tough road losses at Oregon State (38-28) and Arizona (43-38). Stanford is unbeaten in four home games this year, and going back to the final game of the 2007 season, the Cardinal are a perfect 10-0 ATS (9-1 SU) at Stanford Stadium, including 4-0 ATS as a home underdog.
Oregon has taken down Stanford each of the last seven years, winning by an average margin of 22.6 ppg. Last year was one of just two recent meetings that wasn’t a double-digit blowout, as the Ducks prevailed 35-28 – scoring the winning TD with six seconds left – but the Cardinal covered as a 14-point underdog to end an 0-6 ATS drought in this rivalry. Stanford got outgained 451-325 last year, the seventh straight time the Ducks had a total offense edge in excess of 125 yards. In fact, Oregon has outgained Stanford by a total of 1,444 yards the last seven years, or 206.3 ypg.
Also in this series, the Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Palo Alto, the visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five battles overall and the favorite has covered in five of the last seven matchups.
In addition to cashing in six consecutive games, Oregon is on pointspread tears of 4-1 on the road, 4-0 as a favorite, 5-0 as a road chalk, 7-0 in league action, 10-1 after a SU win and 4-0 versus opponents with a winning record. Stanford’s 10-0 ATS run at home is aided by a 7-3 ATS mark in its last 10 conference contests, but the Cardinal have failed to cash in five of seven as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points.
The Ducks are riding “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 10-2-2 as a favorite, 11-5-1 as a road chalk and 6-2 in Pac-10 play. The over is also 4-0 in Stanford’s last four November games and 9-2 in its last 11 as an underdog, but otherwise the Cardinal carry “under” trends of 15-7 at home, 43-20-1 in league games and 4-1 after a bye week.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON
Florida State (4-4, 2-5 ATS) at Clemson (5-3, 5-2 ATS)
The Seminoles try again for their first three-game winning streak of the season when they head north to Death Valley for an ACC Atlantic Division tussle with Clemson, which is tied atop the division standings and is seeking its fourth consecutive victory.
Florida State continued its season-long trend of playing close games last Saturday, holding off North Carolina State 45-42 but failing to cover as a 10½-point home favorite. The Seminoles got the game-winning touchdown with 96 seconds to play and finished with a whopping 555 yards of total offense (278 rushing). However, the defense permitted 538 yards (189 rushing). Including a 30-27, come-from-behind win at North Carolina two weeks ago, Florida State’s last three games were decided by a total of 11 points. In fact, only once this year has an FSU game been decided by more than 10 points.
Over their last three games, the ‘Noles have averaged 39.7 points and 510.7 yards per game, but the defense has yielded 39.3 points and 467.7 yards per outing, including 276 rushing ypg.
Clemson took a break from ACC play last Saturday and toyed with Coastal Carolina, winning 49-3 in a non-lined home game. That rout came on the heels of a 38-3 home victory over Wake Forest as an 8½-point favorite and a 40-37 overtime upset of Miami as a four-point road ‘dog. Prior to the last three games (42.3 ppg), the Tigers had averaged just 20.8 points in their previous four contests. Clemson’s defense has held five of eight foes to 14 points or less. For the season, the D surrenders just 16.5 points and 278 total ypg, figures that rank 15th and 12th in the nation (respectively) and first and second in the ACC (respectively).
The home team has won six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry and is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14. Last year, the Seminoles snapped a three-game SU and ATS losing skid to the Tigers, winning 41-27 as a 3½-point home favorite. Still, Bobby Bowden’s squad has failed to cash in any of its last six trips to Clemson.
Florida State has failed to cover in four of its last five overall (all within the ACC), but it is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five on the road, 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, 6-1-1 ATS In its last eight as a pup of 3½ to 10 points and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, Clemson is on ATS tears of 9-3 overall, 6-1 at home, 6-1 in ACC action and 5-1 as a home favorite.
The ‘Noles have topped the total in four straight games overall, four of five on the road, six straight as an underdog and five straight in league play. Conversely, Clemson carries “under” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 14-2 as a favorite, 9-2 as a home chalk and 10-4 in ACC play.
The over is 7-3 in the last 10 series meetings (4-1 last five), but all three “unders” occurred in Death Valley.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON
(13) Houston (7-1, 6-1 ATS) at Tulsa (4-4, 4-3 ATS)
The Cougars and Heisman Trophy candidate Case Keenum figure to face a difficult road test when they invade Skelly Stadium for a Conference USA West Division showdown with Tulsa.
Houston went back-and-forth all day with Southern Miss a week ago, eventually walking off with a 50-43 victory, barely eking out the cover as a 6½-point home favorite to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games. Keenum had another monster day, completing 44 of 54 passes for a career-best 559 yards with five TDs and one INT. Keenum’s final scoring strike was from 28 yards out with 21 seconds left to break a 43-43 tie. The teams combined for an insane 1,358 total yards and 67 first downs, with the Cougars accounting for 750 of the yards and 39 first downs.
Going back to last year’s 34-28 Armed Forces Bowl win over Air Force as a four-point favorite, Houston is 8-1 SU (7-1 ATS in lined games), with the winner covering the spread each time. Through eight games this year, Keenum is completing 71.6 percent of his passes for 3,293 yards (411.6 ypg) with 25 TDs, figures that rank second, first and first in the nation. He also has thrown just five INTs in 398 pass attempts.
Tulsa won its bowl game last year and began this season 4-1 SU, the only loss coming at Oklahoma. But the Golden Hurricane have since hit the skids, losing three in a row (1-2 ATS), including last Saturday’s surprising 27-13 loss to SMU as a 14½-point home favorite. During the slide – which also includes losses to Boise State and UTEP – Tulsa has put up just 19.3 points and 348.3 yards per outing while surrendering 27.7 points and 418.3 yards per game.
The last three meetings in this series have gone to the home team both SU and ATS, with the last two being lopsided blowouts, as Tulsa won 56-7 as a one-point favorite in 2007, followed last year by the Cougars’ 70-30 rout as a 3½-point underdog. In last year’s game at Houston, the teams tallied 1,142 total yards, with Keenum going 24-for-37 for 402 yards with six TD throws and no picks.
Houston is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with the Hurricane; the underdog has covered in four of the last five; and the SU winner is 9-0 ATS in this rivalry going back to 1985.
In addition to covering in their last four overall and eight of their last nine, the Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a favorite, but they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a road chalk, 1-5 ATS in their last six games on artificial turf and 2-6 ATS in their last eight in November. Tulsa is in the midst of ATS nosedives of 1-4 as an underdog, 1-4-1 in C-USA contests and 1-5 in November, but despite last week’s upset loss to SMU, the Hurricane are still 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The over is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven league games, but the under is 7-3 in its last 10 as a road favorite. It’s been nothing but “unders” for Tulsa, including 13-3-1 overall (9-0 last nine), 18-7-1 at home (4-0 last four), 5-0 in conference play, 7-0 on turf and 4-0 as an underdog. Finally, prior to last year’s 70-30 shootout in Houston, these teams had played three straight games that stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
(12) USC (6-2, 2-6 ATS) at Arizona State (4-4, 4-3 ATS)
With its national championship and Pac-10 title hopes now history, the Trojans will have to find new motivation as they begin November with a conference contest at Sun Devil Stadium against Arizona State.
USC is coming off the most humiliating loss in coach Pete Carroll’s nine years with the school, as it got drubbed 47-20 at Oregon as a three-point road favorite last Saturday to snap a four-game win streak. USC got on the board first with a field goal, but it was all Oregon from there, as the Ducks gashed the Trojans’ suddenly struggling defense for 613 total yards, 391 rushing yards, 30 first downs and five touchdowns. Offensively, USC managed just 327 yards, with freshman QB Matt Barkley going 21 of 38 for 187 yards with two TDs and one INT.
Three weeks ago, the Trojans were fielding one of the nation’s top stop units statistically, as they had allowed a total of 43 points and two touchdowns. But over the past three games, the defense has been torched for 27, 36 and 47 points, surrendering 13 touchdowns, 1,462 total yards and 626 rushing yards, with opposing ball-carriers picking up 5.5 yards per rush.
The Sun Devils have dropped two in a row and four of six since starting the season with consecutive blowout wins over inferior competition Idaho State and Louisiana-Monroe. Two weeks ago, Arizona State got blitzed at Stanford 33-14 as a 6½-point underdog, then last Saturday, the Sun Devils hosted Cal and battled back from an early 14-0 hole to take a 21-20 lead, only to give up the game-winning field goal with 1:36 to play to lose 23-21 but cover as a 6½-point ‘dog. ASU has been outgained by a combined 881-619 margin the last two weeks.
USC has won all nine meetings this decade with Arizona State, going 6-2-1 ATS, but 1-3 ATS in the past four years. Last season, the Trojans won 28-0 but fell just short as a 29-point home favorite. USC has posted three straight double-digit wins at Sun Devil Stadium and is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four visits to the desert.
USC has now failed to cover in three straight games and six of its last seven, all as a favorite, going 1-4 ATS on the road during this stretch. Dating to last year, the Trojans are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 overall, 1-7 ATS in their last eight on the road and 1-7 ATS in their last eight Pac-10 games. On the positive end, USC is 27-0 SU and 21-5 ATS in November under Carroll, and the team is on positive pointspread surges of 12-4 after a defeat (8-2 last 10), 16-5 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points and 9-2 when laying that price on the road.
Arizona State has now cashed in four of its last five at home, but otherwise is in ATS funks of 3-9 as an underdog, 1-4 as a home pup, 4-9 against winning teams, 8-19 in November, 3-7 after a SU loss and 1-7 after an ATS win.
The Trojans have topped the total in three straight games, but the under is still 21-10-1 in their last 32 overall, 33-16-2 in their last 51 Pac-10 affairs, 25-12-1 in their last 38 as a favorite and 7-3-1 in their last 11 in November. It’s been all “unders” for the Sun Devils, too, including runs of 33-16-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 20-8-2 in league contests, 18-7-2 as an underdog, 6-2 in November, 12-3-1 after a SU loss and 20-5-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five clashes in this rivalry, but five of the last six meetings at Sun Devil Stadium have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
VEGAS EXPERTS
Fresno State at Idaho
The party appears over for Idaho, whose 7-0 ATS start has his a speedbump with back to back pointspread defeats. Fresno is hot right now ripping off four straight wins and the Bulldogs rushing attack, led by Ryan Matthews, will be too much to handle for the Vandals. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have covered six or seven of their previous eight games fall into a 33-9 ATS play against situation over the last five college football seasons. FSU has beaten Idaho six straight times by an average of 21 PPG.
Play on: Fresno State
Game Time Sports Advisors
Central Florida vs. Texas
Play: Texas -34.5
Texas is 6-1 ATS L7 at home vs non-conference foes. Longhorns need to lay the wood as it is BCS time. Texas D and special teams have combined for 9 TDs and should get at least 1 today. Central Florida can and will be rattled in this road game. Colt McCoy tosses 5 TDs today and the rout is on 49-10
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Navy/Notre Dame OVER 55.5
The last time these two teams faced off in South Bend we saw 90 points put up on the scoreboard and each of the last 3 matchups at Notre Dame have sailed over the number. Expect another high scoring affair Saturday as both of these teams are strong offensively and lacking on the defensive side of the ball. Expect the Irish to have a tough time with Navy's strong running attack. In fact, Notre Dame is on a 12-3 Overs run in home games versus good rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game. Notre Dame is also 8-1 Over in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. If Navy struggled to stop Temple last week, the Irish shouldn't have any trouble scoring the football here. We'll take the Over for 1 Unit Saturday.